09/11/2015 Overview of the world shipbuilding capacity situation by Jenny N. Braat, Chairman, SEA Europe Working Group on Market & Forecast & Managing Director at Danish Maritime 1. Methodology 2. Global Macroeconomic Situation 3. Global Energy Outlook 4. Global Seaborne Trade 5. Fleet Requirement and Deletions 6. New-building Requirement: Cargo Carriers (container ships, general cargo, bulkers, tankers) Offshore Passenger Ships Other Non-Cargo Vessels: tugs, dredgers, fishing vessels, icebreakers, research vessels Global Yard Utilisation Developments Currently Active Yards: capacity to spare 1
09/11/2015 1. Methodology 2. Global Macroeconomic Situation World Real GDP Growth 2
09/11/2015 3. Global Energy Outlook World energy consumption will grow 1.5% pa between 2014 and 2035. Non-OECD countries lead the demand driven by strong and sharp long-term growth. Energy use in non OECD countries increases about 2.5% per year between 2013 and 2035, while in OECD countries, the increase is nearly 0.5%. 4. Global Seaborne Trade 3
09/11/2015 5. Fleet Requirements and Deletions 2,500.0 90.0 80.0 2,000.0 70.0 Cargo carrying vessels in mill. dwt. 60.0 1,500.0 NCCV in mill. Gt 50.0 40.0 1,000.0 30.0 20.0 500.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 21.0 19.5 18.7 16.7 15.7 13.1 12.8 13 14.0 15.0 16.0 18.0 Total cargo carrying fleet Total NCCV fleet 6. New-building Requirement Analysis of Newbuilding Requirements by Vessel Types & Sizes 1. Cargo Carriers: • Tankers • Containerships and General Cargo • Bulkers • LNG/LPG 2. Passenger Ships 3. Offshore Vessels 4. Specialized Vessels: • Tugs • Dredgers • Fishing • Icebreakers • Research • … 4
09/11/2015 Threat of overcapacity in nearly ALL segments! Source: Danish Ship Finance, Shipping Market Review - May 2015 5
09/11/2015 Global Yard Utilisation Developments Sources: Clarkson’s / IHS Fairplay end Q1 2015 / Danish Ship Finance, Shipping Market Review - May 2015 Currently Active Yards: capacity to spare Source: Danish Ship Finance, Shipping Market Review - May 2015 6
09/11/2015 Thank you! 7
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