SHAKECAST Earthquake Risk Management and Response Tool Herby G. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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SHAKECAST Earthquake Risk Management and Response Tool Herby G. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SHAKECAST Earthquake Risk Management and Response Tool Herby G. Lissade, P.E. Cypress Structure, Oakland, CA 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake ,M6.9 Chief, Office of Emergency Management California Department of Transportation Dana E. Hendrix,


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SHAKECAST

Earthquake Risk Management and Response Tool

Herby G. Lissade, P.E.

Chief, Office of Emergency Management California Department of Transportation

Dana E. Hendrix, P.E.

COOP/COG, Office of Emergency Management California Department of Transportation

Cypress Structure, Oakland, CA 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake ,M6.9

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Improving Global Supply Chain Resilience with ShakeCast

  • What is ShakeCast? (page 3)
  • How does ShakeCast work?

(page 5)

  • What technical requirements

does ShakeCast need? (page 9)

  • What products are available?

(page 17)

  • How is ShakeCast data being

used and by whom? (page 21)

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What is ShakeCast?

  • An application for automating ShakeMap

delivery to critical users.

  • Real-time alert that provides first

responders with notifications and information immediately following earthquakes and helps direct and prioritize emergency bridge, roadway and facility

  • inspections. Retrieves measured shaking

data within minutes after an earthquake.

  • Planning tool used to generate scenario

earthquakes for evaluating system performance and supply chain response capabilities.

  • Represents the most reliable information

within the first minutes to hours following an event.

  • Sends notifications to responders within 10

minutes following the event.

  • Developed by the USGS in 2003.
  • Caltrans-USGS work resulted in ShakeCast

2.0 in 2008, and has since been adopted by

  • thers.
  • ShakeCast 3.0 (beta) is now available.
  • Open-source web application.

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ShakeCast Process

  • 2. ShakeCast determines the

bridges, roadways and facilities that fall within regions of strong shaking.

  • 3. ShakeCast identifies the bridges and facilities that

are more likely to have damage due to the critical combination of damaging shaking levels and greater vulnerability (within 10 minutes)

  • 1. Earthquake occurs,

magnitude and epicenter identified (within 1 minute)

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How Does ShakeCast Work?

Earthquake shaking forces exerted on bridges, roadway and facility locations are determined from USGS ShakeMap. At each bridge, roadway and facility location, ShakeCast analyzes the measured/interpolated ground motion against a pre-determined fragility model. Earthquake shaking forces exerted on bridges are determined from USGS ShakeMap. Probabilities of damage relative to varying levels of shaking (or “fragility”) can be determined in advance for each bridge.

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Why use ShakeMap?

…because magnitude and epicenter alone aren’t enough to determine the area of strong shaking. In California, an array of over 1900 seismic sensors are operated by the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN).

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Low Priority for Inspection Medium-High Priority for Inspection

Bridges that may appear similar can have very different performance characteristics under the same ground shaking conditions.

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Bridge Fragility Modeling

  • We’ve observed some types of bridges performing better than others for a given

ground motion.

  • Examples:

– Post-1991 designs perform better than pre-1971 – Short, single-span bridges have performed well in past earthquakes – Bridges with no skew perform better than those with higher skew

  • A Fragility Model captures these differences in a probabilistic framework.

50% probability of exceedance Minimum “trigger floor”

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What Technical Requirements Does ShakeCast Need?

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ShakeCast 3.0 Instructions Per USGS

  • “Setting up your own cloud-base ShakeCast instance requires you to get an inexpensive

(free for the first year) Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud services account. Alternatively, you can host ShakeCast internally, with a Virtual Machine (VM) environment.

  • Once set up with an AWS account, copying the ShakeCast software disk image

("instance") requires a quick electronic approval from the USGS ShakeCast team.

  • Obtain the prebuilt AWS ShakeCast VM. An AWS micro instance is free for a one-year

trial period, during which users can evaluate ShakeCast.

  • Evaluate the ShakeCast application on AWS.
  • Once you reach the conclusion that ShakeCast is the software that meets your needs for

earthquake response, proceed to:

  • Prepare your hosting environment for ShakeCast implementation. Either on your own

hardware, another cloud provider or continue to host in the AWS cloud.

  • Install the ShakeCast application using the platform-appropriate installer available on the

ftp site.

  • Migrate and populate ShakeCast using your fragilities, facilities and user information”.

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ShakeCast 3.0 Excel Workbook

Excel Macro-Enabled Spreadsheet

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ShakeCast 3.0 Facility Inventory

Excel Macro-Enabled Spreadsheet

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ShakeCast 3.0 Notification Worksheet

Excel Macro-Enabled Spreadsheet

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ShakeCast 3.0 User Worksheet

Excel Macro-Enabled Spreadsheet

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ShakeCast 3.0 Amazon Web Services

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What Other Requirements Does ShakeCast Need?

  • Sensor procurement,

installation and network capabilities

  • Identify bridge,

roadway and facility inventories

  • Develop fragilities
  • Establish necessary IT

infrastructure and resources

  • Designate person(s) to

manage the ShakeCast system

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What Products Are Available?

PAGER Did You Feel It (DYFI)? ShakeCast Page and Report USGS Event Page Instrumental Intensity Tectonic Summary

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PAGER and ShakeCast Reports

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PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that produces estimates of fatalities and economic losses based on past earthquakes in the particular economy or region of concern.

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Did You Feel It?

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Google Earth KML

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The Google Earth interface provides tools to “fly through” the earthquake zone and get a better perspective on the event and the impacts to the infrastructure.

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How Is ShakeCast Data Being Used?

ShakeCast Email

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ShakeCast At Work

ShakeCast identified the only bridge damaged in this event as the top priority for inspection. 7.2 Calexico April 2010

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ShakeCast At Work

ShakeCast identified the 9 bridges that sustained minor damage. These bridges were in the top 40% of a ShakeCast list of 87 bridges. Over 2700 state bridges were in the area. 6.0 Napa August 2014

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Exercises, Planning and Training

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ShakeCast ‘canned’ maps are available for planning, exercise, and training use. Evaluating system performance and supply chain response capabilities before the earthquake occurs.

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  • Caltrans is working with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on a Regional

Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) Project

  • RRAP focuses on goods movement through high hazard areas from the Port of Long

Beach through the Cajon Pass (I-15) to the State of Nevada - 390 kilometers

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Assessing Disaster Risk Economic Study Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP)

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Caltrans-ShakeCast Usage

  • The Department has hundreds of current subscribers to ShakeCast notifications all

levels throughout the organization. – District Maintenance and Construction staff – Traffic Management Centers (TMC) – District and Headquarters Emergency Operation Centers (EOC) – Structure Maintenance & Investigations – Executive Management – Public Affairs

  • The use of ShakeCast notifications has been integrated into formal Caltrans response

protocols.

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Distribution of 140,514 state and local bridges from across the US, imported from a comprehensive bridge inventory (NBI) for use in ShakeCast.

Implementing ShakeCast in the United States

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“Earthquakes are one of the most costly natural hazards faced by the United States, posing a significant risk to 75 million Americans in 39 States”.

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Implementing ShakeCast Globally

The ShakeMap Atlas Database consists of approx 1,000 recent and historical earthquakes worldwide with input peak ground motions, macroseismic intensity data well as information from approx 600 recent + historical global events

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Global Seismographic Network (GSN)

“The GSN provides near-uniform, worldwide monitoring of the Earth, with over 150 modern seismic stations distributed globally. Data from the GSN are archived at the IRIS Data Management Center.”.

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Volunteer Monitoring

Opportunities exist to host a seismometer in your private home, business, public building or school in the United States and around the world.

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NetQuakes Volunteer Monitoring http://earthquake.usgs.gov/monitoring/netquakes/

“The NetQuakes seismographs access the internet via a wireless router connected to your existing broadband internet connection. The seismograph transmits data only after earthquakes greater than magnitude 3 and otherwise does not consume significant bandwidth”.

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Others Using ShakeCast

IAEA Wal-Mart Degenkolb

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What’s Next?

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Earthquake Early Warning (EEW)

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EEW – ShakeAlert Software

  • Senate Bill 135 calls for

the development of a comprehensive statewide earthquake early warning system in California.

  • System is being

developed through the USGS and partners in the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN).

  • Prototype system is

currently being tested.

  • ShakeAlert desktop client

software provides warnings.

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Since December 2013 Caltrans has been evaluating ten instances of ShakeAlert at five locations throughout California.

EEW – Caltrans Beta Testing

Division Location

Division of Research, Innovation, and System Information (Beta testing team coordinator) Sacramento Office of Emergency Management Sacramento Office of Emergency Management Sacramento HQ, Division of Traffic Operations Sacramento Structures Maintenance & Investigations Sacramento District 1 Traffic Management Center Eureka District 4 Traffic Management Center Oakland District 7 Traffic Management Center Los Angeles Office of Emergency Management Fontana District 11 Traffic Management Center San Diego

Eureka Sacramento Oakland Los Angeles San Diego Fontana

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SAFRR Science Application for Risk Reduction Hayward Scenario

Assessing Disaster Risk USGS Economic Study SAFRR

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Why use ShakeCast?

  • Developed by the United States Geological Survey
  • Open Source Application
  • Scalable in terms of needed technology ... you can model an entire city as an input

into ShakeCast down to the Infrastructure components such as bridges, buildings, dams, etc.

  • Suite of Products that are integrated with ShakeCast, such as Pager, Google Earth,
  • etc. ..
  • If you can model it , it can be put into ShakeCast
  • Uses ShakeMaps to identify locations of the most shaking intensity following

significant earthquakes

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Summary

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ShakeCast can be used as both a pro-active and reactive tool

  • Use in pro-active planning studies to identify weakness and in turn enhance resiliency.
  • Use as a reactive response tool for real time assessment of infrastructure, through prioritization
  • f those assets, helping to expedite the recovery process
  • Hazard maps can be developed using ShakeCast outputs

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Summary - Continued

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Global supply chains and transportation systems form the backbone of the worldwide economy, driving trade, consumption and economic growth. Interruptions to supply chains can prove costly, as highlighted in a multitude of disasters around the world. Using ShakeCast will help you build resilience into your supply chain.

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