Seattle 2035 GROWING TO ACHIEVE RACE AND SOCIAL EQUITY March 12, 2015
Comprehensive Plan Race and Social Equity Resolution • Defjnes key equity terms • New equity goals and policies • New equity measures • Equity framework for analysis of growth scenarios • Strengthens accountability to the public through inclusive stewardship Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 2
Comprehensive Plan Race and Social Equity Resolution • Defjnes key equity terms • New equity goals and policies • New equity measures • Equity framework for analysis of growth scenarios • Strengthens accountability to the public through inclusive stewardship Equity analysis • Appendix to the EIS • Additional community engagement • Applying equitable development lens to the 4 growth scenarios • How do we distribute growth and public investment to maximize equity and mitigate impacts? Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 3
Goals of equity analysis 1. Identify potential impacts of each growth scenario on certain populations 2. Inform decision makers on growth strategy and mitigation 3. Inform Comprehensive Plan community engagement Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 4
Growth scenarios BITTER LAKE LAKE CITY 1. Continue current growth NORTHGATE AURORA- LICTON SPRINGS trends CROWN HILL GREENWOOD- PHINNEY RIDGE GREEN LAKE ROOSEVELT 2. Urban center focus BALLARD WALLINGFORD UNIVERSITY DISTRICT 3. Light rail community focus FREMONT EASTLAKE BALLARD- UPPER INTERBAY- QUEEN NORTH END ANNE 4. Expanded transit focus SOUTH UPTOWN LAKE UNION MADISON- MILLER DOWNTOWN FIRST HILL- CAPITOL HILL 23RD & UNION - JACKSON NORTH RAINIER ADMIRAL NORTH BEACON HILL GREATER DUWAMISH WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION COLUMBIA CITY MORGAN JUNCTION OTHELLO SOUTH PARK RAINIER WESTWOOD- BEACH HIGHLAND PARK Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 5
Growth scenarios ALTERNATIVE 1 �������� ������� ������ BITTER LAKE �������� ��� ������ LAKE CITY 1. Continue current growth NORTHGATE trends AURORA- LICTON SPRINGS CROWN HILL GREENWOOD- PHINNEY RIDGE GREEN 2. Urban center focus LAKE ROOSEVELT BALLARD WALLINGFORD UNIVERSITY 3. Light rail community focus DISTRICT FREMONT Projected housing EASTLAKE growth compared to BALLARD- UPPER 4. Expanded transit focus INTERBAY- QUEEN NORTH END ANNE existing number of units (percent) SOUTH 0 - 50 UPTOWN LAKE UNION MADISON- MILLER 50 - 100 DOWNTOWN FIRST HILL- CAPITOL HILL > 100 Current village boundary 23RD & UNION - JACKSON Manufacturing & Industrial Center NORTH RAINIER ADMIRAL NORTH BEACON HILL GREATER DUWAMISH WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION COLUMBIA CITY MORGAN JUNCTION OTHELLO SOUTH PARK RAINIER WESTWOOD- HIGHLAND BEACH PARK Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 6
Growth scenarios ALTERNATIVE 2 ����� ������ ����� BITTER LAKE LAKE CITY 1. Continue current growth NORTHGATE trends AURORA- LICTON SPRINGS CROWN HILL GREENWOOD- PHINNEY RIDGE GREEN 2. Urban center focus LAKE ROOSEVELT BALLARD WALLINGFORD UNIVERSITY 3. Light rail community focus DISTRICT FREMONT Projected housing EASTLAKE growth compared to BALLARD- UPPER 4. Expanded transit focus INTERBAY- QUEEN NORTH END ANNE existing number of units (percent) SOUTH 0 - 50 UPTOWN LAKE UNION MADISON- MILLER 50 - 100 DOWNTOWN FIRST HILL- CAPITOL HILL > 100 Current village boundary 23RD & UNION - JACKSON Manufacturing & Industrial Center NORTH RAINIER ADMIRAL NORTH BEACON HILL GREATER DUWAMISH WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION COLUMBIA CITY MORGAN JUNCTION OTHELLO SOUTH PARK RAINIER WESTWOOD- HIGHLAND BEACH PARK Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 7
����� ���� ��������� ����� BALLARD- INTERBAY- ALTERNATIVE 3 Growth scenarios ����� ���� ��������� ����� BITTER LAKE 130TH & I-5 LAKE CITY 1. Continue current growth NORTHGATE trends AURORA- LICTON SPRINGS CROWN HILL GREENWOOD- PHINNEY RIDGE GREEN 2. Urban center focus LAKE ROOSEVELT BALLARD WALLINGFORD UNIVERSITY DISTRICT 3. Light rail community focus FREMONT Projected housing EASTLAKE growth compared to BALLARD- UPPER INTERBAY- 4. Expanded transit focus QUEEN NORTH END ANNE existing number of units (percent) SOUTH 0 - 50 UPTOWN LAKE UNION MADISON- MILLER 50 - 100 DOWNTOWN FIRST HILL- CAPITOL HILL > 100 Current village boundary 23RD & UNION - JACKSON Expanded village boundary Manufacturing & Industrial Center NORTH RAINIER ADMIRAL NORTH BEACON HILL GREATER DUWAMISH WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION COLUMBIA CITY OTHELLO MORGAN JUNCTION OTHELLO SOUTH PARK RAINIER WESTWOOD- HIGHLAND BEACH PARK Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 8
Growth scenarios ALTERNATIVE 4 �������� ������� ����� BITTER LAKE 130TH & I-5 LAKE CITY 1. Continue current growth �������� ������� ����� NORTHGATE trends AURORA- LICTON SPRINGS CROWN HILL GREENWOOD- PHINNEY RIDGE GREEN 2. Urban center focus LAKE ROOSEVELT BALLARD WALLINGFORD UNIVERSITY DISTRICT 3. Light rail community focus FREMONT Projected housing EASTLAKE growth compared to BALLARD- UPPER INTERBAY- 4. Expanded transit focus QUEEN NORTH END ANNE existing number of units (percent) SOUTH 0 - 50 UPTOWN LAKE UNION MADISON- MILLER 50 - 100 DOWNTOWN FIRST HILL- CAPITOL HILL > 100 Current village boundary 23RD & UNION - JACKSON Expanded village boundary Manufacturing & Industrial Center NORTH RAINIER ADMIRAL NORTH BEACON HILL GREATER DUWAMISH WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CROWN COLUMBIA CITY HILL MORGAN JUNCTION OTHELLO SOUTH PARK RAINIER WESTWOOD- BEACH HIGHLAND PARK GREENWO Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 9 BALLARD- INTERBAY-
Analyzing the growth scenarios Does the intensity of expected growth in particular urban centers and villages have an impact on: 1. Likelihood of displacement for priority populations? 2. Access to key determinants of physical, social, and economic opportunity and well-being for priority populations? What strategies and levels of investment are needed so that expected growth achieves equitable outcomes? Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 10
Analyzing the growth scenarios Does the intensity of expected growth in particular urban centers and villages have an impact on: 1. Likelihood of displacement for priority populations? 2. Access to key determinants of physical, social, and economic opportunity and well-being for priority populations? What strategies and levels of investment are needed so that expected growth achieves equitable outcomes? Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 11
Displacement • Goal: assess risk of housing displacement across Seattle and in each urban center and village Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 12
Displacement • Goal: assess risk of housing displacement across Seattle and in each urban center and village • Physical vs. economic displacement • Voluntary vs. involuntary displacement • Residential vs. commercial displacement • Cultural displacement Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 13
Displacement Limitations • Data reliability • Anomalies • Dynamic data • High-level assessment of susceptibility, not guarantee of future outcome • Citywide/regional housing market vs. subarea impacts • Displacement is complex and depends on timing, pace, and other factors • Development capacity does not guarantee development or specify its characteristics • Mitigation costs cannot be quantifjed Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 14
Displacement Limitations • Data reliability • Anomalies • Dynamic data • High-level assessment of susceptibility, not guarantee of future outcome • Citywide/regional housing market vs. subarea impacts • Displacement is complex and depends on timing, pace, and other factors • Development capacity does not guarantee development or specify its characteristics • Mitigation costs cannot be quantifjed Analysis should inform but not predetermine decisions about growth, investment, and policy. Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 15
Displacement 3 categories of indicators: Vulnerability Amenities Development Potential and Impacts Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 16
Vulnerability Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty Amenities Development Potential Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 17
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