[PPT] - Seattle 2035 GROWING TO ACHIEVE RACE AND SOCIAL EQUITY March 12, PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Seattle 2035

GROWING TO ACHIEVE RACE AND SOCIAL EQUITY

March 12, 2015

SLIDE 2

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 2

Comprehensive Plan Race and Social Equity Resolution

Defjnes key equity terms
New equity goals and policies
New equity measures
Equity framework for analysis of growth scenarios
Strengthens accountability to the public through inclusive

stewardship

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 3

Comprehensive Plan Race and Social Equity Resolution

Defjnes key equity terms
New equity goals and policies
New equity measures
Equity framework for analysis of growth scenarios
Strengthens accountability to the public through inclusive

stewardship

Equity analysis

Appendix to the EIS
Additional community engagement
Applying equitable development lens to the 4 growth

scenarios

How do we distribute growth and public investment to

maximize equity and mitigate impacts?

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 4

Goals of equity analysis

1. Identify potential impacts of each growth scenario on

certain populations

2. Inform decision makers on growth strategy and mitigation
3. Inform Comprehensive Plan community engagement

SLIDE 5

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 5

Growth scenarios

1. Continue current growth

trends

2. Urban center focus
3. Light rail community focus
4. Expanded transit focus

GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD- INTERBAY- NORTH END GREENWOOD- PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA- LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD- HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON- MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION FIRST HILL- CAPITOL HILL DOWNTOWN UPTOWN UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 6

Growth scenarios

1. Continue current growth

trends

2. Urban center focus
3. Light rail community focus
4. Expanded transit focus

GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD- INTERBAY- NORTH END GREENWOOD- PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA- LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD- HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON- MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION FIRST HILL- CAPITOL HILL DOWNTOWN UPTOWN UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION 0 - 50 50 - 100 > 100 Current village boundary Manufacturing & Industrial Center

Projected housing growth compared to existing number of units (percent)

ALTERNATIVE 1

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 7

Growth scenarios

1. Continue current growth

trends

2. Urban center focus
3. Light rail community focus
4. Expanded transit focus

GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD- INTERBAY- NORTH END GREENWOOD- PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA- LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD- HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON- MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION FIRST HILL- CAPITOL HILL DOWNTOWN UPTOWN UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION Current village boundary Manufacturing & Industrial Center 0 - 50 50 - 100 > 100

Projected housing growth compared to existing number of units (percent)

ALTERNATIVE 2

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 8

GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD- INTERBAY- NORTH END GREENWOOD- PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA- LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD- HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON- MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION FIRST HILL- CAPITOL HILL DOWNTOWN UPTOWN UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION 130TH & I-5 Current village boundary Manufacturing & Industrial Center Expanded village boundary 0 - 50 50 - 100 > 100

Projected housing growth compared to existing number of units (percent)

ALTERNATIVE 3

Growth scenarios

1. Continue current growth

trends

2. Urban center focus
3. Light rail community focus
4. Expanded transit focus

BALLARD- INTERBAY- OTHELLO

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 9

GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD- INTERBAY- NORTH END GREENWOOD- PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA- LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD- HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON- MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION FIRST HILL- CAPITOL HILL DOWNTOWN UPTOWN UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION 130TH & I-5 Current village boundary Manufacturing & Industrial Center

Projected housing growth compared to existing number of units (percent)

Expanded village boundary 0 - 50 50 - 100 > 100

ALTERNATIVE 4

Growth scenarios

1. Continue current growth

trends

2. Urban center focus
3. Light rail community focus
4. Expanded transit focus

BALLARD- INTERBAY- GREENWO CROWN HILL

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 10

Analyzing the growth scenarios

Does the intensity of expected growth in particular urban centers and villages have an impact on:

1. Likelihood of displacement for priority populations?
2. Access to key determinants of physical, social, and

economic opportunity and well-being for priority populations? What strategies and levels of investment are needed so that expected growth achieves equitable outcomes?

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 11

Analyzing the growth scenarios

Does the intensity of expected growth in particular urban centers and villages have an impact on:

1. Likelihood of displacement for priority populations?
2. Access to key determinants of physical, social, and

economic opportunity and well-being for priority populations? What strategies and levels of investment are needed so that expected growth achieves equitable outcomes?

SLIDE 12

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 12

Displacement

Goal: assess risk of housing displacement across

Seattle and in each urban center and village

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 13

Displacement

Goal: assess risk of housing displacement across

Seattle and in each urban center and village

Physical vs. economic displacement
Voluntary vs. involuntary displacement
Residential vs. commercial displacement
Cultural displacement

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 14

Displacement

Limitations

Data reliability
Anomalies
Dynamic data
High-level assessment of susceptibility, not guarantee of future
utcome
Citywide/regional housing market vs. subarea impacts
Displacement is complex and depends on timing, pace, and
ther factors
Development capacity does not guarantee development or

specify its characteristics

Mitigation costs cannot be quantifjed

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 15

Displacement

Limitations

Data reliability
Anomalies
Dynamic data
High-level assessment of susceptibility, not guarantee of future
utcome
Citywide/regional housing market vs. subarea impacts
Displacement is complex and depends on timing, pace, and
ther factors
Development capacity does not guarantee development or

specify its characteristics

Mitigation costs cannot be quantifjed

Analysis should inform but not predetermine decisions about growth, investment, and policy.

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 16

Displacement

3 categories of indicators: Vulnerability Amenities Development Potential and Impacts

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 17

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Amenities Development Potential

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 18

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Amenities Development Potential

< 20 20 - 30 31 - 40 41 - 50 > 50 Urban Village

Nonwhite residents by census block (percent)

Source: 2010 Census Manufacturing & Industrial Center GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5

COMMUNITIES OF COLOR

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 19

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Amenities Development Potential

< 40 40 - 50 51 - 60 61 - 70 > 70 Urban Village

Renter-occupied housing units by census block (percent)

Manufacturing & Industrial Center Source: 2010 Census GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5

HOUSING TENANCY

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 20

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Amenities Development Potential

< 10 10 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 25 > 25 Urban Village

Severely cost-burdened households with income below 80% AMI by census tract (percent)

Source: 2007-2011 Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) Manufacturing & Industrial Center GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5

HOUSING COST BURDEN

Severely cost-burdened households spend more than 50 percent of household income on housing costs.

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 21

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Amenities

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current or future Link light rail and streetcar Proximity to regional job center Proximity to already-gentrifjed or affmuent neighborhood Proximity to core businesses

(grocery, pharmacy, restaurant/cafe)

Proximity to civic infrastructure

(school, community center, park, library)

Development Potential

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 22

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Amenities

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current or future Link light rail and streetcar Proximity to regional job center Proximity to already-gentrifjed or affmuent neighborhood Proximity to core businesses

(grocery, pharmacy, restaurant/cafe)

Proximity to civic infrastructure

(school, community center, park, library)

Development Potential

> 1500 1001 - 1500 601 - 1000 401 - 600 201 - 400 151 - 200 101 - 150 51 - 100 26 - 50 0 - 25 Urban Village

Sum of unique weekday bus trips within quarter-mile walk

Bus stop Source: King County Metro GTFS GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5

PROXIMITY TO FREQUENT BUS SERVICE

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 23

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Amenities

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current or future Link light rail and streetcar Proximity to regional job center Proximity to already-gentrifjed or affmuent neighborhood Proximity to core businesses

(grocery, pharmacy, restaurant/cafe)

Proximity to civic infrastructure

(school, community center, park, library)

Development Potential

Median household income by census tract

120% of AMI or greater 80% of AMI or less “Spillover” tract Source: 2008-2012 American Community Survey

“SPILLOVER” EFFECT

A census tract is identified as "spillover tract" if: 1) median household income is < 80% of AMI 2) adjacent to tract whose median household income is > 120% of AMI

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 24

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Amenities

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current or future Link light rail and streetcar Proximity to regional job center Proximity to already-gentrifjed or affmuent neighborhood Proximity to core businesses

(grocery, pharmacy, restaurant/cafe)

Proximity to civic infrastructure

(school, community center, park, library)

Development Potential

Residential parcels with high development potential Below-average median rent

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 25

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Amenities

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current or future Link light rail and streetcar Proximity to regional job center Proximity to already-gentrifjed or affmuent neighborhood Proximity to core businesses

(grocery, pharmacy, restaurant/cafe)

Proximity to civic infrastructure

(school, community center, park, library)

Development Potential

Residential parcels with high development potential Below-average median rent

DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY

The City maintains a model

f development capacity, an

estimate of how much new development could

ccur theoretically over an

unlimited time period. For parcels that allow residential uses, the model com- pares existing and potential residential units. The lower the ratio, the more likely redevelopment will occur. GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5 Parcel likely to redevelop Urban Village

Parcels that allow residential uses identified as redevelopable in City capacity model

Manufacturing & Industrial Center Source: City of Seattle Development Capacity Model

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 26

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Amenities

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current or future Link light rail and streetcar Proximity to regional job center Proximity to already-gentrifjed or affmuent neighborhood Proximity to core businesses

(grocery, pharmacy, restaurant/cafe)

Proximity to civic infrastructure

(school, community center, park, library)

Development Potential

Residential parcels with high development potential Below-average median rent

v u l n e r a b i l i t y a m e n i t i e s d e v e l

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m e n t p

t

e n t i a l

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 27

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Vulnerability score

High Low Urban Village Manufacturing & Industrial Center GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5

VULNERABILITY

Communities of color English-speaking ability Educational attainment Housing tenancy Cost-burden Household income

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 28

Amenities

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current or future Link light rail and streetcar Proximity to regional job center Proximity to already-gentrifjed or affmuent neighborhood Proximity to core businesses

(grocery, pharmacy, restaurant/cafe)

Proximity to civic infrastructure

(school, community center, park, library)

DESIRABILITY

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current/future light rail and streetcar Proximity to core businesses Proximity to civic infrastructure Proximity to affluent or already-gentrified neighborhood Proximity to regional job center GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5

Desirability score

High Low Urban Village Manufacturing & Industrial Center

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 29

Development Potential

Residential parcels with high development potential Below-average median rent

Development potential and impacts score

High Low Urban Village Manufacturing & Industrial Center GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL & IMPACTS

Residential parcels with high development potential Below-average median rent

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 30

Vulnerability

Nonwhite population Low English-speaking ability Low educational attainment Rental tenancy Housing cost burden Income below 200% of poverty

Amenities

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current or future Link light rail and streetcar Proximity to regional job center Proximity to already-gentrifjed or affmuent neighborhood Proximity to core businesses

(grocery, pharmacy, restaurant/cafe)

Proximity to civic infrastructure

(school, community center, park, library)

Development Potential

Residential parcels with high development potential Below-average median rent

Displacement risk index

High Low Urban Village Manufacturing & Industrial Center

DISPLACEMENT RISK INDEX

GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 31

Analyzing the growth scenarios

Does the intensity of expected growth in particular urban centers and villages have an impact on:

1. Likelihood of displacement for priority populations?
2. Access to key determinants of physical, social, and

economic opportunity and well-being for priority populations? What strategies and levels of investment are needed so that expected growth achieves equitable outcomes?

SLIDE 32

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 32

Opportunity & Access

Education Economic opportunity Transit access Civic infrastructure Health

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 33

Opportunity & Access

Education Economic opportunity Transit access Civic infrastructure Health Goal: broad measure of physical, social, economic well-being — but it’s not comprehensive

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 34

Opportunity & Access

Education

High-performing elementary / middle school

(reading and math)

Above-average high school graduation rate Transit time to university / college Proximity to library

Economic opportunity

Number of jobs within two-mile radius Change in median home value 2000-2013

Transit access

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current/future light rail/streetcar

Civic infrastructure

Proximity to community center Proximity to park

Health

Proximity to public health facility Proximity to store with fresh produce

SLIDE 35

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 35 Difference in math proficiency scores from Seattle average by attendance area

> 10% lower 0 - 10% lower 0 - 10% higher > 10% higher Source: Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (2012-2013 school year)

ELEMENTARY MATH SCORES

Opportunity & Access

Education

High-performing elementary / middle school

(reading and math)

Above-average high school graduation rate Transit time to university / college Proximity to library

Economic opportunity

Number of jobs within two-mile radius Change in median home value 2000-2013

Transit access

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current/future light rail/streetcar

Civic infrastructure

Proximity to community center Proximity to park

Health

Proximity to public health facility Proximity to store with fresh produce

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 36

South Seattle College Seattle University Seattle Central College University of Washington Seattle Pacific University North Seattle College University or College 30 minute transit service area King County Metro Bus Route

Travel time by transit to university or college

ACCESS TO COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES

Opportunity & Access

Education

High-performing elementary / middle school

(reading and math)

Above-average high school graduation rate Transit time to university / college Proximity to library

Economic opportunity

Number of jobs within two-mile radius Change in median home value 2000-2013

Transit access

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current/future light rail/streetcar

Civic infrastructure

Proximity to community center Proximity to park

Health

Proximity to public health facility Proximity to store with fresh produce

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Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 37

< 1,500 1,500 - 3,000 3,001 - 7,500 7,501 - 10,000 10,001 - 15,000 > 15,000 Urban Village Manufacturing & Industrial Center Census tract centroid (scaled by employment)

Jobs within two-mile radius based on census tract centroids

Source: Puget Sound Regional Council 2013 Covered Employment Estimates GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5 GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END

EMPLOYMENT DENSITY

Opportunity & Access

Education

High-performing elementary / middle school

(reading and math)

Above-average high school graduation rate Transit time to university / college Proximity to library

Economic opportunity

Number of jobs within two-mile radius Change in median home value 2000-2013

Transit access

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current/future light rail/streetcar

Civic infrastructure

Proximity to community center Proximity to park

Health

Proximity to public health facility Proximity to store with fresh produce

SLIDE 38

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 38

GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5

OPPORTUNITY AND ACCESS INDEX

Opportunity and access index

High Low Urban Village Manufacturing & Industrial Center

Opportunity & Access

Education

High-performing elementary / middle school

(reading and math)

Above-average high school graduation rate Transit time to university / college Proximity to library

Economic opportunity

Number of jobs within two-mile radius Change in median home value 2000-2013

Transit access

Proximity to frequent bus service Proximity to current/future light rail/streetcar

Civic infrastructure

Proximity to community center Proximity to park

Health

Proximity to public health facility Proximity to store with fresh produce

SLIDE 39

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 39

25 20 15 10 5 30 35 25 20 15 10 5 30 Seattle average North Rainier Bitter Lake Fremont West Seattle Junction Lake City Ballard North Beacon Hill Westwood– Highland Park South Park Greenwood– Phinney Ridge Admiral Morgan Junction Crown Hill Eastlake Aurora- Licton Springs 130th & I-5 Madison–Miller Columbia City 23rd & Union–Jackson Wallingford Upper Queen Anne Green Lake Roosevelt Rainier Beach Othello 12th Avenue Belltown Denny Triangle Commercial Core University Campus Ravenna Pike–Pine Capitol Hill Chinatown– International District Northgate First Hill Pioneer Square University District Northwest Uptown South Lake Union

pportunity and access index

displacement risk index

SLIDE 40

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 40

25 20 15 10 5 30 35 25 20 15 10 5 30 Seattle average North Rainier Bitter Lake Fremont West Seattle Junction Lake City Ballard North Beacon Hill Westwood– Highland Park South Park Greenwood– Phinney Ridge Admiral Morgan Junction Crown Hill Eastlake Aurora- Licton Springs 130th & I-5 Madison–Miller Columbia City 23rd & Union–Jackson Wallingford Upper Queen Anne Green Lake Roosevelt Rainier Beach Othello 12th Avenue Belltown Denny Triangle Commercial Core University Campus Ravenna Pike–Pine Capitol Hill Chinatown– International District Northgate First Hill Pioneer Square University District Northwest Uptown South Lake Union

pportunity and access index

displacement risk index

SLIDE 41

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 41

25 20 15 10 5 30 35 25 20 15 10 5 30 Seattle average North Rainier Bitter Lake Fremont West Seattle Junction Lake City Ballard North Beacon Hill Westwood– Highland Park South Park Greenwood– Phinney Ridge Admiral Morgan Junction Crown Hill Eastlake Aurora- Licton Springs 130th & I-5 Madison–Miller Columbia City 23rd & Union–Jackson Wallingford Upper Queen Anne Green Lake Roosevelt Rainier Beach Othello 12th Avenue Belltown Denny Triangle Commercial Core University Campus Ravenna Pike–Pine Capitol Hill Chinatown– International District Northgate First Hill Pioneer Square University District Northwest Uptown South Lake Union

pportunity and access index

displacement risk index

Equitable Development Typology

Protect and Grow

high displacement risk / high opportunity & access

Leverage Demand to Increase Choices

low displacement risk / high opportunity & access

Stabilize and Enhance Community

high displacement risk / low opportunity & access

Improve Access

low displacement risk / low opportunity & access

SLIDE 42

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 42

Equitable development typology

For each typology, we identify:

potential impacts of growth alternatives
recommended mitigation strategies

Equitable approach:

High displacement risk areas require adequate mitigation,

which is potentially costly

Distribute mitigation investments according to need, not just

where growth occurs

Expand choice in high-access, low-risk areas and leverage

private investment to provide services

SLIDE 43

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 43

Findings across alternatives

All alternatives:

have tradeoffs in regards to displacement risk and opportunity & access allocate relatively low growth to high access / low risk areas

SLIDE 44

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 44

Findings across alternatives

All alternatives:

have tradeoffs in regards to displacement risk and opportunity & access allocate relatively low growth to high access / low risk areas

Urban center focus

Less growth in high displacement risk UVs Development in urban centers likely has higher construction cost, which can limit housing type diversity and affordability

SLIDE 45

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 45

Findings across alternatives

All alternatives:

have tradeoffs in regards to displacement risk and opportunity & access allocate relatively low growth to high access / low risk areas

Urban center focus

Less growth in high displacement risk UVs Development in urban centers likely has higher construction cost, which can limit housing type diversity and affordability

Light rail focus

Of all alternatives, allocates most growth to high displacement risk UVs, requiring greatest levels of mitigation Potential for increased transit access and lower transportation costs

SLIDE 46

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 46

Findings across alternatives

All alternatives:

have tradeoffs in regards to displacement risk and opportunity & access allocate relatively low growth to high access / low risk areas

Urban center focus

Less growth in high displacement risk UVs Development in urban centers likely has higher construction cost, which can limit housing type diversity and affordability

Light rail focus

Of all alternatives, allocates most growth to high displacement risk UVs, requiring greatest levels of mitigation Potential for increased transit access and lower transportation costs

Expanded transit focus

Expands boundaries in a few high-access UVs... ...but also in high displacement risk UVs

SLIDE 47

Seattle 2035 — DEIS Equity Analysis 47

Displacement risk index

High Low Urban Village Manufacturing & Industrial Center

DISPLACEMENT RISK INDEX

GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5 GREATER DUWAMISH BALLARD– INTERBAY– NORTH END GREENWOOD– PHINNEY RIDGE ROOSEVELT BITTER LAKE AURORA– LICTON SPRINGS WESTWOOD– HIGHLAND PARK EASTLAKE NORTH BEACON HILL MADISON– MILLER RAINIER BEACH WALLINGFORD COLUMBIA CITY FREMONT NORTH RAINIER MORGAN JUNCTION SOUTH PARK OTHELLO CROWN HILL LAKE CITY ADMIRAL BALLARD 23RD & UNION - JACKSON UPPER QUEEN ANNE GREEN LAKE WEST SEATTLE JUNCTION CAPITOL HILL COMMERCIAL CORE UPTOWN UNIVERSITY CAMPUS NORTHGATE SOUTH LAKE UNION RAVENNA UNIVERSITY DISTRICT NORTHWEST PIKE–PINE FIRST HILL 12TH AVENUE DENNY TRIANGLE BELLTOWN PIONEER SQUARE CHINATOWN– INTERNATIONAL DISTRICT 130TH & I-5

OPPORTUNITY AND ACCESS INDEX

Opportunity and access index

High Low Urban Village Manufacturing & Industrial Center