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Seasonality Nele Verbiest Senior Data Scientist @ Python - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 11, 2023 •117 likes •452 views

DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON Seasonality Nele Verbiest Senior Data Scientist @ Python Predictions DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Seasonal effects (1)

  1. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON Seasonality Nele Verbiest Senior Data Scientist @ Python Predictions

  2. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Seasonal effects (1)

  3. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Seasonal effects (2) Mean number of donations

  4. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Seasonal effects (3) Mean donation amount

  5. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Seasonality and the timeline (1)

  6. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Seasonality and the timeline (2)

  7. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Seasonality and the timeline (3)

  8. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Dealing with seasonality Check for seasonality gifts.groupby("month")["amount"].mean() gifts.groupby("month").size() Use appropriate timeline in history

  9. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Seasonality and predictive models Model timeline May 2018 logreg = linear_model.LogisticRegression() logreg.fit(X_may2018, y_may2018) predictions = logreg.predict_proba(X_jan2019)[:,1] auc = roc_auc_score(y_jan2019, predictions) print(round(auc,2)) 0.53 Model timeline January 2018 logreg = linear_model.LogisticRegression() logreg.fit(X_jan2018, y_jan2018) predictions = logreg.predict_proba(X_jan2019)[:,1] auc = roc_auc_score(y_jan2019, predictions) print(round(auc,2)) 0.56

  10. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON Let's practice!

  11. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON Using multiple snapshots Nele Verbiest Senior Data Scientist @ Python Predictions

  12. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Not enough data Small population print(len(basetable)) 4738 Small number of targets print(len(basetable)) 394 010 print(sum(basetable["target"])) 230

  13. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Using multiple snapshots (1)

  14. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Using multiple snapshots (2)

  15. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Using multiple snapshots (3)

  16. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Using multiple snapshots (4)

  17. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Stacking basetables basetable = basetable_april2018.append(basetable_march2018)

  18. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Snapshots and seasonality

  19. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON Let's practice!

  20. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON The timegap Nele Verbiest Senior Data Scientist @ Python Predictions

  21. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Timegap: motivation (1)

  22. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Timegap: motivation (2)

  23. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Timegap: motivation (3)

  24. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Timegap: motivation (4)

  25. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Timegap: motivation (5)

  26. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Adding a timegap Timegap: Gather data Run the model Prepare the campaign

  27. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Reconstructing the timeline in history (1)

  28. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Reconstructing the timeline in history (2)

  29. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Constructing the basetable

  30. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON Let's practice!

  31. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON Congratulations! Nele Verbiest Data Scientist @ Python Predictions

  32. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python What you learned... 1. Draw the timeline: Timegap 2. Reconstruct timeline in history: Seasonality Multiple snapshots 3. Determine the population 4. Calculate the target values 5. Add candidate predictors 6. Clean the data

  33. DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON Congratulations!

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