Seasonality Nele Verbiest Senior Data Scientist @ Python - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Seasonality Nele Verbiest Senior Data Scientist @ Python - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON Seasonality Nele Verbiest Senior Data Scientist @ Python Predictions DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Seasonal effects (1)


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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Seasonality

INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON

Nele Verbiest

Senior Data Scientist @ Python Predictions

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Seasonal effects (1)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Seasonal effects (2)

Mean number of donations

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Seasonal effects (3)

Mean donation amount

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Seasonality and the timeline (1)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Seasonality and the timeline (2)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Seasonality and the timeline (3)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Dealing with seasonality

Check for seasonality Use appropriate timeline in history

gifts.groupby("month")["amount"].mean() gifts.groupby("month").size()

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Seasonality and predictive models

Model timeline May 2018 Model timeline January 2018

logreg = linear_model.LogisticRegression() logreg.fit(X_may2018, y_may2018) predictions = logreg.predict_proba(X_jan2019)[:,1] auc = roc_auc_score(y_jan2019, predictions) print(round(auc,2)) 0.53 logreg = linear_model.LogisticRegression() logreg.fit(X_jan2018, y_jan2018) predictions = logreg.predict_proba(X_jan2019)[:,1] auc = roc_auc_score(y_jan2019, predictions) print(round(auc,2)) 0.56

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Let's practice!

INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Using multiple snapshots

INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON

Nele Verbiest

Senior Data Scientist @ Python Predictions

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Not enough data

Small population Small number of targets

print(len(basetable)) 4738 print(len(basetable)) 394 010 print(sum(basetable["target"])) 230

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Using multiple snapshots (1)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Using multiple snapshots (2)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Using multiple snapshots (3)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Using multiple snapshots (4)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Stacking basetables

basetable = basetable_april2018.append(basetable_march2018)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Snapshots and seasonality

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Let's practice!

INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

The timegap

INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON

Nele Verbiest

Senior Data Scientist @ Python Predictions

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Timegap: motivation (1)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Timegap: motivation (2)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Timegap: motivation (3)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Timegap: motivation (4)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Timegap: motivation (5)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Adding a timegap

Timegap: Gather data Run the model Prepare the campaign

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Reconstructing the timeline in history (1)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Reconstructing the timeline in history (2)

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Constructing the basetable

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Let's practice!

INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Congratulations!

INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON

Nele Verbiest

Data Scientist @ Python Predictions

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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

What you learned...

  • 1. Draw the timeline:

Timegap

  • 2. Reconstruct timeline in history:

Seasonality Multiple snapshots

  • 3. Determine the population
  • 4. Calculate the target values
  • 5. Add candidate predictors
  • 6. Clean the data
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python

Congratulations!

INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON