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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Seasonality
INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON
DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Seasonality Nele Verbiest Senior Data Scientist @ Python - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Seasonality Nele Verbiest Senior Data Scientist @ Python - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON Seasonality Nele Verbiest Senior Data Scientist @ Python Predictions DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python Seasonal effects (1)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Seasonal effects (2)
Mean number of donations
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Seasonal effects (3)
Mean donation amount
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Seasonality and the timeline (1)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Seasonality and the timeline (2)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Seasonality and the timeline (3)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Dealing with seasonality
Check for seasonality Use appropriate timeline in history
gifts.groupby("month")["amount"].mean() gifts.groupby("month").size()
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Seasonality and predictive models
Model timeline May 2018 Model timeline January 2018
logreg = linear_model.LogisticRegression() logreg.fit(X_may2018, y_may2018) predictions = logreg.predict_proba(X_jan2019)[:,1] auc = roc_auc_score(y_jan2019, predictions) print(round(auc,2)) 0.53 logreg = linear_model.LogisticRegression() logreg.fit(X_jan2018, y_jan2018) predictions = logreg.predict_proba(X_jan2019)[:,1] auc = roc_auc_score(y_jan2019, predictions) print(round(auc,2)) 0.56
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Let's practice!
INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Using multiple snapshots
INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON
Nele Verbiest
Senior Data Scientist @ Python Predictions
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Not enough data
Small population Small number of targets
print(len(basetable)) 4738 print(len(basetable)) 394 010 print(sum(basetable["target"])) 230
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Using multiple snapshots (1)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Using multiple snapshots (2)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Using multiple snapshots (3)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Using multiple snapshots (4)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Stacking basetables
basetable = basetable_april2018.append(basetable_march2018)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Snapshots and seasonality
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Let's practice!
INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
The timegap
INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON
Nele Verbiest
Senior Data Scientist @ Python Predictions
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Timegap: motivation (1)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Timegap: motivation (2)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Timegap: motivation (3)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Timegap: motivation (4)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Timegap: motivation (5)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Adding a timegap
Timegap: Gather data Run the model Prepare the campaign
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Reconstructing the timeline in history (1)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Reconstructing the timeline in history (2)
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Constructing the basetable
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Let's practice!
INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Congratulations!
INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON
Nele Verbiest
Data Scientist @ Python Predictions
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
What you learned...
- 1. Draw the timeline:
Timegap
- 2. Reconstruct timeline in history:
Seasonality Multiple snapshots
- 3. Determine the population
- 4. Calculate the target values
- 5. Add candidate predictors
- 6. Clean the data
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DataCamp Intermediate Predictive Analytics in Python
Congratulations!
INTERMEDIATE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN PYTHON