Se a L e ve l Rise & Ada pta tio n in Virg inia Molly Mitc - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Se a L e ve l Rise & Ada pta tio n in Virg inia

Molly Mitc he ll, VIMS E mily Ste inhilbe r , ODU

Aug ust 31, 2016 E O 57 Wo rk Gro up Me e ting

Outline

1.

Drive rs o f SL R a nd c urre nt pro je c tio ns

2.

I mpa c ts o f SL R to na tura l a nd b uilt e nviro nme nt

3.

Curre nt Ada pta tio n e ffo rts

4.

Ho w is ne w Ce nte r po ise d to he lp with the se issue s?

Se a le ve l rise is a pa rtic ula r pro b le m fo r Virg inia

He re a re e xte nsive ma rshe s & fla t, e a sily flo o de d la nds

Sho re line Ma na g e me nt I n Che sa pe a ke Ba y. 1999. C. S. Ha rda wa y, Jr. a nd R. J. Byrne

Ho urs o f inunda tio n ha ve inc re a se d g re a tly sinc e the e a rly pa rt o f the c e ntury

E ze r, T ., & Atkinso n, L . P. (2014). Ac c e le ra te d flo o ding a lo ng the US E a st Co a st: o n the impa c t o f se a ‐le ve l rise , tide s, sto rms, the Gulf Stre a m, a nd the No rth Atla ntic o sc illa tio ns. E arth's F uture , 2(8), 362-382.

Se asonal ic e me lting in Gr e e nland E ustatic : Glo b a l SL

c ha ng e s re la tive to a fixe d po int (like the c e nte r o f the e a rth) ha ving to do with c ha ng e s in o c e a n vo lume

http:/ / www.nc dc .no a a .g o v/ indic a to rs/

Wo rld o c e a n he a t c o nte nt - to p 700 me te rs

Ste r ic : Glo b a l SL

c ha ng e s fro m the rma l e xpa nsio n o f wa te r a nd diffe re nc e s in sa linity

1992 2002

100,000 yrs a g o Che sa pe a ke Ba y L a nd Sub side nc e a nd Se a L e ve l Cha ng e : An E va lua tio n o f Pa st a nd Pre se nt T re nds a nd F uture Outlo o k. Bo o n, Brub a ke r, F

• rre st. 2010. Virg inia I

nstitute o f Ma rine Sc ie nc e . Spe c ia l Re po rt No . 425 in Applie d Ma rine . Sc ie nc e a nd Oc e a n E ng ine e ring E g g le sto n, Ja c k, a nd Po pe , Ja so n, 2013, L a nd sub side nc e a nd re la tive se a -le ve l rise in the so uthe rn Che sa pe a ke Ba y re g io n: U.S. Ge o lo g ic a l Surve y Circ ula r 1392, 30 p., http:/ / dx.do i.o rg / 10.3133/ c ir1392.

Sub side nc e

Shift in lo c a tio n

Cha ng e in wa te r le ve l

Shift in Gulf Stre a m

Atla ntic Me ridio na l Ove rturning Circ ula tio n

Shift in lo c a tio n

E ze r, T ., L . P. Atkinso n, W. B. Co rle tt a nd J. L . Bla nc o (2013), Gulf Stre a m's induc e d se a le ve l rise a nd va ria b ility a lo ng the U.S. mid-Atla ntic c o a st, J. Ge o phys. Re s. Oc e a ns, 118, 685–697

Bo o n 2012

Bo o n a nd Mitc he ll 2016 …sta tio ns 5 (Ga lve sto n) a nd 6 (Ro c kpo rt), whic h ha ve the hig he st me dia n rise ra te s o f a ny sta tio n in this study a t 5.46 mm/ y a nd 6.11 mm/ y, re spe c tive ly (T a b le 2), followe d by station

16 (Nor folk) at 5.11 mm/ y …

Pro je c ting Se a L e ve l Rise fo r Virg inia

T

• impro ve o ur unde rsta nding
• f se a le ve l rise , we ne e d:

 Ne w da ta o n sub side nc e in VA tha t ha s

hig h spa tia l re so lutio n (o ng o ing re se a rc h via CCRF R)

 Co ntinue to mo nito r se a le ve l c ha ng e s so

tha t we c a n impro ve pro je c tio ns

 Unde rsta nd the pa tte rn o f c ha ng e s in the

Gulf Stre a m so tha t we c a n impro ve pro je c tio ns

L

• c ality

Road mile s floode d

Ac c o ma c k * 326 No rtha mpto n 44 Virg inia Be a c h 289 Che sa pe a ke * 103 Glo uc e ste r* 118 Ma the ws 139 Ja me s City* 11

L

• c ality

Road mile s floode d

Po q uo so n 38 Yo rk* 24 Ne wpo rt Ne ws 15 Ha mpto n 50 Po rtsmo uth 51 No rfo lk 119 K ing Willia m* 14

Pro je c te d impa c ts to infra struc ture

Da ta fro m Mitc he ll e t a l . 2013. Re c urre nt F lo o ding Study fo r T ide wa te r Virg inia . Virg inia Se na te Do c ume nt No . 3. Ric hmo nd, Virg inia . * I ndic a te s tha t the a re a is pre dic te d to se e g re a te r tha n 30% inc re a se in po pula tio n b y 2030

Sa ltwa te r intrusio n into drinking wa te r a nd a g ric ultura l fie lds

Wa te r fro m a b o ve the da m is use d fo r drinking wa te r With a ~1 ft rise in se a le ve l, sa linity is pro je c te d to e xc e e d drinking sta nda rds 11

days o ut o f the ye a r

With a ~3ft rise in se a le ve l sa linity is pro je c te d to e xc e e d drinking sta nda rds 71

days o ut o f the ye a r

Ric e e t a l. 2012. Asse ssme nt o f sa linity intrusio n in the Ja me s a nd Chic ka ho miny Rive rs a s a re sult o f simula te d se a le ve l rise in the Che sa pe a ke Ba y

I mpa c ts to ma rshe s

Ma rshe s a re a t hig h risk whe n:

• 1. T

he y c a n’ t re tre a t la ndwa rd due to sho re line struc ture s

• 2. T

he y c a n’ t re tre a t la ndwa rd due to the he ig ht o f the b a nk

Bilko vic e t a l. 2009 Vulne ra b ility o f sha llo w tida l wa te r ha b ita ts in Virg inia to c lima te c ha ng e

With a 2 ft inc re a se in se a le ve l:

Ne a rly 40% o f Virg inia ma rshe s a re

vulne ra b le to SL R due to a dja c e nt de ve lo pme nt

T

• b e tte r unde rsta nd the

impa c ts o f se a le ve l rise & flo o ding , we ne e d:

 Be tte r da ta o n whe re flo o ding c urre ntly

• c c urs a nd ho w tha t will inte ra c t with se a

le ve l rise

 Additio na l a sse ssme nts o f ho w flo o ding

a ffe c ts the huma n a nd e c o no mic he a lth

• f the re g io n

Ho w do we a da pt?

I

n Virg inia , mo st a da pta tio n ha s b e e n do ne a t the individua l o r lo c a lity le ve l

T

his ma y no t b e suffic ie nt fo r future flo o d pro je c tio ns

Ada pta tio n ne e ds to a ddre ss tida l

wa te rs, rive r wa te rs a nd pre c ipita tio n ma na g e me nt

 Wa te r ma na g e me nt ne e ds to b e

ho listic a lly inte g ra te d into e ve ry a spe c t o f o ur c o mmunitie s

Che sa pe a ke Ba y susta ina b ility pro je c t

Hurric a ne I sa b e l

Co lla b o ra to rs: Ve rsa r,I nc , Na tio na l Oc e a nic a nd Atmo sphe ric Administra tio n, VCPC

Mid-te rm pro je c tio n: b a se d o n a na lysis o f tide g a ug e da ta L

• ng -te rm pro je c tio n: b a se d o n Na tio na l Clima te Mo de l

Asse ssing a nd Ma pping Ho use ho ld Ada pta tio n Be ha vio r in Re spo nse to Re c urre nt F lo o ding

 Unde rsta nding

c itize n a da pta tio n b e ha vio r to suppo rt lo c a l g o ve rnme nt c o mpre he nsive pla nning .

 Study e va lua te d

e xpe rie nc e s, re spo nse s, pe rc e ptio ns, re spo nsib ility to a c t a nd me dic a l (a sthma ) va ria b le

Be hr, Dia z, Mc L e o d (ODU/ VMASC)

Ne ig hb o rho o d Re silie nc y: I nno va tive Wa te r Ma na g e me nt fo r Ne ig hb o rho o d Co mmunitie s

 Multi-disc iplina ry se nio r

de sig n pro je c ts fo c use d o n ne ig hb o rho o d so lutio ns to c urta il flo o ding .

 Co mple te d studie s

inc lude : Che ste rfie ld He ig hts a nd the Ha g ue

 L

e d to c o lla b o ra tio ns with No rfo lk, Dutc h Dia lo g ue s, a nd HUD NDRC

E rte n Una l (ODU), Andre ws (Ha mpto n Unive rsity) + VASG & We tla nds Wa tc h

I nfra struc ture Ana lysis Suppo rt fo r the Ha mpto n Ro a ds Pilo t Pro je c t

 F

• c use d o n a da ptive

pla nning fo r infra struc ture pro je c ts a nd pub lic he a lth impa c ts re la te d to se a le ve l rise in the Ha mpto n Ro a ds Re g io n a s pa rt o f the I nte rg o ve rnme nta l Pilo t Pro je c t.

Co nsidine & Be c ke r (ODU)

T

• he lp us a da pt to inc re a se d

flo o ding pre ssure s, we ne e d:

 I

mpro ve d sho rt-te rm pro je c tio ns o f wa te r le ve ls thro ug ho ut the Ba y

 Mo de ls tha t a llo w us to e va lua te

ma na g e me nt o ptio ns b e fo re the y a re put

• n the g ro und

 Da ta with re g a rds to e c o no mic ,

infra struc ture , a nd he a lth impa c ts a nd mo re

Ba c kg ro und o n the Ce nte r

 2016 Ge ne ra l Asse mb ly Autho riza tio n (HB 903) &

Clima te Cha ng e & Re silie nc y Upda te Co mmissio n Prio rity

 L

e ve ra g e c o mplime nta ry stre ng ths o f ODU + VI MS/ W&M

 Suppo rt a nd e na b le de c isio n ma king b y lo c a l

pla nne rs & e me rg e nc y ma na g e rs

 Pro vide c o o rdina te d re se a rc h & te c hnic a l suppo rt

in o ne -sto p-sho p fo r sta ke ho lde rs to o b ta in info rma tio n re la te d to flo o ding re silie nc y.

 L

e ve ra g e CCRF R to b ring funding to Virg inia .

Ong o ing CCRF R Pro je c ts

 L

• c a lize d Sub side nc e

 Risk Co mmunic a tio n

Stra te g ie s

 T

• urism Re silie nc e

 E

c o no mic I mpa c t Ana lysis

 Stre e t L

e ve l F lo o d Mo de ling

 E

nha nc e d T ide Wa tc h

 L

ia iso ns with fe de ra l re se a rc h pa rtne rs & lo c a l c o nve ne r

 Mo re Co ming So o n

Subside nc e : Sate llite InSAR Analysis

Ha mling to n (ODU) in pa rtne rship with NASA & USGS

• Que stions:
• Wha t do e s the sub side nc e ma p lo o k

like no w?

• Ho w ha ve the se ra te s c ha ng e d?
• I

s the re g re a te r spa tia l va ria b ility tha n indic a te d b y this ma p.

• InSAR:
• SAR: side lo o king ra da r whic h utilize s

flig ht pa th to simula te a nte nna fo r hi re s ima g ry

• I

nSAR: use s 2+ ima g e s to e stima te de fo rma tio n o r e le va tio n

• HR Da ta Ava il: 2006-2011
• Goal: Ge ne ra te impro ve d lo c a lize d sub side nc e ma p fo r HR sho wing

c urre nt tre nds w/ unc e rta inty a nd re so lutio n in o rde r o f 10s o f me te rs.

Risk Communic ation Str ate gie s

 Bring ing to g e the r pre vio us re se a rc h o n nuisa nc e flo o ding

c o mmunic a tio n & struc ture d pub lic invo lve me nt (I PP Ca se Study) with stre e t le ve l sto rm surg e mo de ling c a pa b ilitie s a nd e me rg e nc y ma na g e r fe e db a c k.

 Using inno va tive g a ming stra te g ie s, to a na lyze a nd the n e nha nc e

flo o d risk c o mmunic a tio n with spe c ific g ro ups o f sta ke ho lde rs using da ta fro m VI MS stre e t le ve l sto rm surg e mo de ls. Co nsidine , Yusuf, Co vi (ODU) with L

• ftis (VI

MS) & L

• c a l E

M & GI S Sta ff

T

• ur

ism Re silie nc e

 Mo de le d o n a simila r to o l, the T

• urism Re silie nc e I

nde x, de ve lo pe d b y Mississippi – Ala b a ma Se a Gra nt

 Ne e ds Asse ssme nt & I

nfo Ga the ring : I n-pe rso n surve y, with

• wne rs o f to urism-re la te d c o mpa nie s to de te rmine

c urre nt le ve l o f re silie nc e a nd a sse ss a re a s fo r impro ve me nt.

 Build Re silie nc y: Wo rksho ps, Co a sta l Virg inia T

RI , VB T

• urism Re silie nc e Asse ssme nt

 Po lic y Ana lysis: VCPC a na lyzing c urre nt po lic ie s fo r

re silie nc e o ppo rtunitie s

Ushe r, Co vi, Yusuf, Ste inhilb e r (ODU) & VCPC Stude nts w/ VB E M

Ongoing E c onomic Impac t Analysis

 Ove rtime c re a te se rie s o f white

pa pe rs & da ta b a se to c o uple with VI MS & VMASC mo de ling .

 Pa rtne rships with HRE

DA &

• the rs

 Ong o ing :



Cluste r a na lysis o f po te ntia l wa te r ma na g e me nt c luste r in Ha mpto n Ro a ds,



Co nve ning o the rs c o nduc ting impa c t re se a rc h to c o o rdina te a nd c o mmunic a te ne e ds, e tc .

 Sa mple F

uture T

• pic s:



Re silie nt Zo ning & c o mme rc ia l de ve lo pme nt



F lo o d risk (o r pe rc e ive d risk) impa c t o n firm a ttra c tio n & re lo c a tio n



I ndividua l a nd re g io na l pa rtic ipa tio n in NF I P pro g ra m

F ile r (ODU) with UVA & W&M fa c ulty

Str e e t L e ve l F looding Mode l

• 2
• 1

1 2 3 4

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Wate r L e ve l in MSL (m) Days sinc e Oc t. 27, 2012

T he Batte r y, NY

NOAA Ob se rva tio n

Ha rry V. Wa ng 1, De re k L

• ftis1, Da vid F
• rre st1, Aro n Ro la nd 2 Zhuo L

iu1 a nd Jo se ph Zha ng 1

Pre dic te d (a stro no mic a l) tide is the da ily c ha ng e in wa te r le ve l pro duc e d b y the g ra vita tio na l inte ra c tio ns o f the e a rth, mo o n, a nd sun. Ob se rve d wa te r le ve l (NOAA tide g a ug e da ta ) – inc lude s sto rm surg e Diffe re nc e b e twe e n pre dic te d a nd o b se rve d wa te r le ve l – we a the r tide

T ide wa tc h e xpa nsio n

http:/ / c o a st.no a a .g o v/ dig ita lc o a st/

Que stio ns?

E mily Ste inhilb e r: e ste inhi@ o d u.e d u Mo lly Mitc he ll: mo lly@ vims.e d u