Se a L e ve l Rise & Ada pta tio n in Virg inia Molly Mitc - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Se a L e ve l Rise & Ada pta tio n in Virg inia Molly Mitc he ll, VIMS E mily Ste inhilbe r , ODU Aug ust 31, 2016 E O 57 Wo rk Gro up Me e ting

Outline Drive rs o f SL R a nd c urre nt 1. pro je c tio ns I mpa c ts o f SL R to na tura l 2. a nd b uilt e nviro nme nt Curre nt Ada pta tio n 3. e ffo rts Ho w is ne w Ce nte r 4. po ise d to he lp with the se issue s?

Se a le ve l rise is a pa rtic ula r pro b le m fo r Virg inia Ho urs o f inunda tio n ha ve inc re a se d g re a tly sinc e the e a rly pa rt o f the c e ntury Sho re line Ma na g e me nt I n Che sa pe a ke Ba y. 1999. C. S. Ha rda wa y, Jr. a nd R. J. Byrne He re a re e xte nsive ma rshe s & fla t, e a sily flo o de d la nds E ze r, T ., & Atkinso n, L . P. (2014). Ac c e le ra te d flo o ding a st Co a st: o n the impa c t o f se a ‐ le ve l a lo ng the US E rise , tide s, sto rms, the Gulf Stre a m, a nd the No rth Atla ntic o sc illa tio ns. E arth's F uture , 2 (8), 362-382.

ustatic : Glo b a l SL c ha ng e s re la tive to a E fixe d po int (like the c e nte r o f the e a rth) ha ving to do with c ha ng e s in o c e a n vo lume ic : Glo b a l SL c ha ng e s fro m the rma l Ste r e xpa nsio n o f wa te r a nd diffe re nc e s in Se asonal ic e me lting in Gr e e nland sa linity Wo rld o c e a n he a t c o nte nt - to p 700 me te rs http:/ / www.nc dc .no a a .g o v/ indic a to rs/ 1992 2002

Sub side nc e E g g le sto n, Ja c k, a nd Po pe , Ja so n, 2013, L a nd sub side nc e a nd re la tive se a -le ve l rise in the so uthe rn Che sa pe a ke Ba y re g io n: U.S. Ge o lo g ic a l Surve y Circ ula r 1392, 30 p., http:/ / dx.do i.o rg / 10.3133/ c ir1392. 100,000 yrs a g o Che sa pe a ke Ba y L a nd Sub side nc e a nd Se a L e ve l Cha ng e : An E va lua tio n o f Pa st a nd Pre se nt T re nds a nd F uture Outlo o k. Bo o n, Brub a ke r, F o rre st. 2010. Virg inia I nstitute o f Ma rine Sc ie nc e . Spe c ia l Re po rt No . 425 in Applie d Ma rine . Sc ie nc e a nd Oc e a n E ng ine e ring

Shift in Gulf Stre a m Cha ng e in wa te r le ve l Shift in lo c a tio n Atla ntic Me ridio na l Ove rturning Circ ula tio n Shift in lo c a tio n E ze r, T ., L . P. Atkinso n, W. B. Co rle tt a nd J. L . Bla nc o (2013), Gulf Stre a m's induc e d se a le ve l rise a nd va ria b ility a lo ng the U.S. mid-Atla ntic c o a st, J. Ge o phys. Re s. Oc e a ns, 118, 685–697

Pro je c ting Se a L e ve l Rise fo r Virg inia Bo o n a nd Mitc he ll 2016 …sta tio ns 5 (Ga lve sto n) a nd 6 (Ro c kpo rt), whic h ha ve the hig he st me dia n rise ra te s o f a ny sta tio n in this study a t 5.46 mm/ y a nd 6.11 mm/ y, re spe c tive ly Bo o n 2012 (T a b le 2), followe d by station folk) at 5.11 mm/ y … 16 (Nor

T o impro ve o ur unde rsta nding o f se a le ve l rise , we ne e d:  Ne w da ta o n sub side nc e in VA tha t ha s hig h spa tia l re so lutio n (o ng o ing re se a rc h via CCRF R)  Co ntinue to mo nito r se a le ve l c ha ng e s so tha t we c a n impro ve pro je c tio ns  Unde rsta nd the pa tte rn o f c ha ng e s in the Gulf Stre a m so tha t we c a n impro ve pro je c tio ns

Pro je c te d impa c ts to infra struc ture L oc ality Road mile s L oc ality Road mile s floode d floode d Ac c o ma c k * 326 Po q uo so n 38 No rtha mpto n 44 Yo rk* 24 Virg inia Be a c h 289 Ne wpo rt Ne ws 15 Ha mpto n 50 Che sa pe a ke * 103 Po rtsmo uth 51 Glo uc e ste r* 118 No rfo lk 119 Ma the ws 139 K ing Willia m* 14 Ja me s City* 11 Da ta fro m Mitc he ll e t a l . 2013. Re c urre nt F lo o ding Study fo r T ide wa te r Virg inia . Virg inia Se na te Do c ume nt No . 3. Ric hmo nd, Virg inia . * I ndic a te s tha t the a re a is pre dic te d to se e g re a te r tha n 30% inc re a se in po pula tio n b y 2030

Sa ltwa te r intrusio n into drinking wa te r a nd a g ric ultura l fie lds Wa te r fro m a b o ve the da m is use d fo r drinking wa te r With a ~1 ft rise in se a le ve l, sa linity is pro je c te d to e xc e e d drinking sta nda rds 11 days o ut o f the ye a r With a ~3ft rise in se a le ve l sa linity is pro je c te d to e xc e e d drinking sta nda rds 71 Ric e e t a l. 2012. Asse ssme nt o f sa linity days o ut o f the ye a r intrusio n in the Ja me s a nd Chic ka ho miny Rive rs a s a re sult o f simula te d se a le ve l rise in the Che sa pe a ke Ba y

I mpa c ts to ma rshe s Ma rshe s a re a t hig h risk whe n: 1. T he y c a n’ t re tre a t la ndwa rd due to sho re line struc ture s 2. T he y c a n’ t re tre a t la ndwa rd due to the he ig ht o f the b a nk With a 2 ft inc re a se in se a le ve l: Ne a rly 40% o f Virg inia ma rshe s a re vulne ra b le to SL R due to a dja c e nt de ve lo pme nt Bilko vic e t a l. 2009 Vulne ra b ility o f sha llo w tida l wa te r ha b ita ts in Virg inia to c lima te c ha ng e

T o b e tte r unde rsta nd the impa c ts o f se a le ve l rise & flo o ding , we ne e d:  Be tte r da ta o n whe re flo o ding c urre ntly o c c urs a nd ho w tha t will inte ra c t with se a le ve l rise  Additio na l a sse ssme nts o f ho w flo o ding a ffe c ts the huma n a nd e c o no mic he a lth o f the re g io n

Ho w do we a da pt?  I n Virg inia , mo st a da pta tio n ha s b e e n do ne a t the individua l o r lo c a lity le ve l  T his ma y no t b e suffic ie nt fo r future flo o d pro je c tio ns  Ada pta tio n ne e ds to a ddre ss tida l wa te rs, rive r wa te rs a nd pre c ipita tio n ma na g e me nt  Wa te r ma na g e me nt ne e ds to b e ho listic a lly inte g ra te d into e ve ry a spe c t o f o ur c o mmunitie s

Che sa pe a ke Ba y susta ina b ility pro je c t Hurric a ne I sa b e l Co lla b o ra to rs: Ve rsa r,I nc , Na tio na l Oc e a nic a nd Atmo sphe ric Administra tio n, VCPC

L o ng -te rm pro je c tio n: b a se d o n Na tio na l Clima te Mo de l Mid-te rm pro je c tio n: b a se d o n a na lysis o f tide g a ug e da ta

Asse ssing a nd Ma pping Ho use ho ld Ada pta tio n Be ha vio r in Re spo nse to Re c urre nt F lo o ding  Unde rsta nding c itize n a da pta tio n b e ha vio r to suppo rt lo c a l g o ve rnme nt c o mpre he nsive pla nning .  Study e va lua te d e xpe rie nc e s, re spo nse s, pe rc e ptio ns, re spo nsib ility to a c t a nd me dic a l (a sthma ) va ria b le Be hr, Dia z, Mc L e o d (ODU/ VMASC)

Ne ig hb o rho o d Re silie nc y: I nno va tive Wa te r Ma na g e me nt fo r Ne ig hb o rho o d Co mmunitie s  Multi-disc iplina ry se nio r de sig n pro je c ts fo c use d o n ne ig hb o rho o d so lutio ns to c urta il flo o ding .  Co mple te d studie s inc lude : Che ste rfie ld He ig hts a nd the Ha g ue  L e d to c o lla b o ra tio ns with No rfo lk, Dutc h Dia lo g ue s, a nd HUD NDRC E rte n Una l (ODU), Andre ws (Ha mpto n Unive rsity) + VASG & We tla nds Wa tc h

I nfra struc ture Ana lysis Suppo rt fo r the Ha mpto n Ro a ds Pilo t Pro je c t  F o c use d o n a da ptive pla nning fo r infra struc ture pro je c ts a nd pub lic he a lth impa c ts re la te d to se a le ve l rise in the Ha mpto n Ro a ds Re g io n a s pa rt o f the I nte rg o ve rnme nta l Pilo t Pro je c t. Co nsidine & Be c ke r (ODU)

T o he lp us a da pt to inc re a se d flo o ding pre ssure s, we ne e d:  I mpro ve d sho rt-te rm pro je c tio ns o f wa te r le ve ls thro ug ho ut the Ba y  Mo de ls tha t a llo w us to e va lua te ma na g e me nt o ptio ns b e fo re the y a re put o n the g ro und  Da ta with re g a rds to e c o no mic , infra struc ture , a nd he a lth impa c ts a nd mo re

Ba c kg ro und o n the Ce nte r  2016 Ge ne ra l Asse mb ly Autho riza tio n (HB 903) & Clima te Cha ng e & Re silie nc y Upda te Co mmissio n Prio rity  L e ve ra g e c o mplime nta ry stre ng ths o f ODU + VI MS/ W&M  Suppo rt a nd e na b le de c isio n ma king b y lo c a l pla nne rs & e me rg e nc y ma na g e rs  Pro vide c o o rdina te d re se a rc h & te c hnic a l suppo rt in o ne -sto p-sho p fo r sta ke ho lde rs to o b ta in info rma tio n re la te d to flo o ding re silie nc y.  L e ve ra g e CCRF R to b ring funding to Virg inia .

Ong o ing CCRF R Pro je c ts  L o c a lize d Sub side nc e  Risk Co mmunic a tio n Stra te g ie s  T o urism Re silie nc e  E c o no mic I mpa c t Ana lysis  Stre e t L e ve l F lo o d Mo de ling  E nha nc e d T ide Wa tc h  L ia iso ns with fe de ra l re se a rc h pa rtne rs & lo c a l c o nve ne r  Mo re Co ming So o n

Subside nc e : Sate llite InSAR Analysis Que stions: • Wha t do e s the sub side nc e ma p lo o k • like no w? Ho w ha ve the se ra te s c ha ng e d? • I s the re g re a te r spa tia l va ria b ility • tha n indic a te d b y this ma p. InSAR: • SAR: side lo o king ra da r whic h utilize s • flig ht pa th to simula te a nte nna fo r hi re s ima g ry I nSAR: use s 2+ ima g e s to e stima te • de fo rma tio n o r e le va tio n HR Da ta Ava il: 2006-2011 • Goal: Ge ne ra te impro ve d lo c a lize d sub side nc e ma p fo r HR sho wing • c urre nt tre nds w/ unc e rta inty a nd re so lutio n in o rde r o f 10s o f me te rs. Ha mling to n (ODU) in pa rtne rship with NASA & USGS