Powering New York State and the World With Wind, Water, and the Sun - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Powering New York State and the World With Wind, Water, and the Sun to Address Global Warming Sun to Address Global Warming, Air Pollution, and Energy Security Air Pollution, and Energy Security

Mark Z. Jacobson New School Atmosphere/Energy Program New York City

• J. G. Swanepoel/Dreamstime.com

Wind farm near Middelgrunden, Denmark

Stanford University November 15, 2012

What’s the Problem? Why act Quickly?

Ai ll ti kill 2 5 3 illi l ld id h Air pollution kills 2.5-3 million people worldwide each year. Arctic sea ice may disappear in 10-20 years. Global temperatures are Arctic sea ice may disappear in 10 20 years. Global temperatures are rising at a faster rate than any time in history. I i d d i i i ll ti l b l i d Increasing energy demand is increasing pollution, global warming, and energy prices. Higher energy prices lead to economic, social, political instability  Drastic problems require immediate and definite solutions

Norilsk, Russia

http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

Sukinda, India

http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

Linfen, China

http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

Aerosol particle particle pollution in p NYC during i t 2009 winter 2009

(values above 7 ( ug/m3 increase mortality the

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/12/15/nyregion/air-480.jpg

mortality the most)

Lung of LA Teenage Nonsmoker in 1970s; Nonsmoker in 1970s; Lungs of People in Most Big Cities of the World Big Cities of the World Today

SCAQMD/CARB

A Young Air Pollution Victim Victim

Mean Global Temperature Anomalies

WARMEST YEARS 1. 2010 2. 2005 3 2007 3. 2007 4. 1998 5. 2009 6. 2011 6. 2011 7. 2006 8. 2003 9. 2002 10 2004

• 10. 2004

NASA GISS, 2012

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

Sea Ice in 2012 Versus 1979-2000 Mean

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Sea ice in September, 2012 lowest in satellite history

Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security

ELECTRIC POWER VEHICLES

Recommended – Wind Water Sun (WWS)

, gy y

Recommended Wind, Water, Sun (WWS)

• 1. Wind
• 2. CSP

WWS-Battery-Electric

• 3. Geothermal
• 4. Tidal

WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell

• 5. PV
• 6. Wave
• 7. Hydroelectricity

Not Recommended Not Recommended Nuclear Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanol Coal-CCS Soy, algae biodiesel y, g Natural gas, biomass Compressed natural gas

Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009)

50-70 times more CO2 and air pollution per kWh than wind

Why Not Natural Gas?

50 70 times more CO2 and air pollution per kWh than wind Methane from natural gas a main contributor to Arctic ice loss. Natural gas causes more global warming but less air pollution t lit th l 150 d t l lf t ( li mortality than coal over 150 years due to less sulfate (a cooling agent) and more methane (a warming agent) from natural gas than coal Coal causes higher mortality

• coal. Coal causes higher mortality.

Hydrofracking causes land and water supply degradation

Why Not Clean Coal

50 times more CO emissions per kWh than wind

(With Carbon Capture)?

50 times more CO2 emissions per kWh than wind 150 times more air pollutant emissions per kWh than wind Requires 25% more energy, thus 25% more coal mining and transport and traditional pollution than normal coal transport and traditional pollution than normal coal.

Why Not Nuclear?

9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refining uranium and using fossil fuels for electricity during the 11-19 years to permit g y g y p (6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with 2-5 years for a wind or solar farm Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted) Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation p p Unresolved waste issues

Why Not Ethanol?

Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollution as gasoline g Corn E85: 90-200% of CO2 emissions of gasoline Cellulosic E85: 50-150% of CO2 emissions of gasoline Wind-BEVs: <1% of CO2 emissions as gasoline Enormous land use and water requirements Enormous land use and water requirements

Wind Power, Wind-Driven Wave Power

www.mywindpowersystem.com

Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Tidal Power

www.gizmag.com www.inhabitat.com myecoproject.org www.sir-ray.com

Concentrated Solar Power, PV Power

Torresol Gemasolar Spain, 15 hrs storage, Matthew Wright, Beyond Zero www.solarthermalmagazine.com i treehugger com i.treehugger.com

WWS Transportation

T esla Roadster all electric

weeble.net

Nissan Leaf all electric T esla Model S all electric

www.blogcdn.com www.greenlaunches.com www.ecofriend.com www.blogcdn.com

Hydrogen fuel cell–electric hybrid bus Hydrogen fuel cell bus Electric truck

WWS Transportation

Hydrogen fuel cell ship Hydrogen fuel cell tractor y g p y g

http://green.autoblog .com Zmships.eu Ec.europa.eu

Electric ferry

http://technabob.com/blog/2010/01/19/rechargeable-ship/

Cryogenic hydrogen aircraft

Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric Water Heater, Solar Water Pre-Heater

Midlandpower.com

Conservpros.com Adaptivebuilders.com Heat pump water heater

Store Heat During Summer For Summer For Winter Use

Drake Landing Solar Community Okotoks, Alberta, Canada http://www dlsc ca/ http://www.dlsc.ca/ Sunlight heats glycol solution that is piped to and heats water in storage

• tanks. The water is distributed through

pipes in multiple boreholes to heat soil, which is insulated. In winter, heated water returns to homes to heat heated water returns to homes to heat air and water.

End Use Power Demand For All Purposes

WORLD U.S. NYS

2010 (TW) 12.5 2.50 0.094 2030 with current fuels 16.9 2.83 0.096 2030 converting all energy To wind-water-sun (WWS) To wind water sun (WWS) and electricty/H2 11.5 1.78 0.060 2030 reduction (%) due to WWS

32 37 37

Number of Plants or Devices to Power World

TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2030 NUMBER

5-MW wind turbines 50% 3.8 mill. (0.8% in place) 0.75-MW wave devices 1 720,000 100-MW geothermal plants 4 5350 (1.7% in place) 1300-MW hydro plants 4 900 (70% in place) 1300 MW hydro plants 4 900 (70% in place) 1-MW tidal turbines 1 490,000 3-kW Roof PV systems 6 1.7 billion 300 MW S l PV l t 14 40 000 300-MW Solar PV plants 14 40,000 300-MW CSP plants 20 49,000 100%

Number of Plants or Devices to Power NYS

TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2030 NUMBER

5-MW onshore wind turbines 10% 4020 5 MW ff h i d t bi 40 12 700 5-MW offshore wind turbines 40 12,700 5-kW Res. roof PV systems 6 5 million 100-kW com/gov roof PV systems 12 500,000 50-MW Solar PV plants 10 828 100-MW CSP plants 10 387 100-MW geothermal plants 5 36 g p 1300-MW hydro plants 5.5 6.6 (89% in place) 1-MW tidal turbines 1 2600 0.75-MW wave devices 0.5 1910 0.75 MW wave devices 0.5 1910 100%

World Wind Speeds at 100m

90 10 6 8 6 4

• 180
• 90

180 90

• 90

2 All i d l d i hi h i d t id A t ti 70 80 TW All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-80 TW = 6-7 times world end-use WWS power demand 2030 of 11.5 TW

New York State Wind Resources

Dvorak et al., 2011

Mean 80-m Wind Speed From Data

Archer and Jacobson (2005)

World Surface Solar

Surface downward solar radiation (W/m2) (global avg: 193; land: 183) 250 90 200 150

All l l d i hi h l l ti 340 TW

100

• 180
• 90

90 180

• 90

All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TW = 30 times world end-use WWS power demand 2030 of 11.5 TW

NYS: 4-4.5 kWh/m2/day)

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

Wind-BEV

Footprint 1-2.8 km2

Cellulosic E85

Footprint 1 2.8 km Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US

Nuclear-BEV

0.05-0.062% Footprint 33% 4.7-35.4% of US

Corn E85

• f total; the rest is

buffer

Corn E85

9.8-17.6% of US

Geoth BEV

0.006-0.008%

Solar PV-BEV

0.077-0.18%

Area to power 100%

• f NYS for all

purposes with WWS

Onshore wind: footprint 0 05 km2 footprint=0.05 km2 spacing=1.46% of NYS (blue is open space) Geothermal Geothermal 0.01% of NYS Offshore wind: spacing= 4 62% of Solar PV+CSP power plants 0.85% of NYS 4.62% of NYS (blue is

• pen space)

All rooftop PV (0.45% of NYS)

Matching Power Demand With Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Hydro

California electricity was found to be obtainable from WWS for 99.8% of all hours in S 2005, 2006 without over-sizing WWS capacity, using demand-response, or using much CSP storage.

Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/

Desertec

www.dw-world.de/image/0,,4470611_1,00.jpg

Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)

ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 2008-2010 2020-2030

Wind onshore 4-7 ≤4 Wind offshore 10-17 8-13 Wave >>11 4-11 Geothermal 4-7 4-7 Geothermal 4 7 4 7 Hydroelectric 4 4 CSP 10-15 7-8 Solar PV 9-13 5-7 Solar PV 9-13 5-7 Tidal >>11 5-7 Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5.3)=12.3 8-9.6(+5.7)=13.7-15.3

Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)

U.S. Fossil Fuel Subsidies (2002-2008)

Foreign tax credit for overseas production of oil $15.3 billion Credit for production of nonconventional fuels $14.1 billion Oil and gas exploration and development expensing $ 7.1 billion Reduced government take on oil and gas leasing $ 7.0 billion Oil and gas excess percentage over cost depletion $ 5.4 billion g p g p $ Credit for enhanced oil recovery $ 1.6 billion Characterizing coal royalties as capital gains $ 1.0 billion Exclusion of benefits payments to disabled miners $ 0 44 billion Exclusion of benefits payments to disabled miners $ 0.44 billion Other tax code breaks $ 2.22 billion Direct grants and subsidies $18.3 billion Total $72 5 billion Total $72.5 billion

Source: http://www.eli.org/Program_Areas/innovation_governance_energy.cfm

Costs Increase of Residential Electric Power 2003-11

Five states with highest percent of electric power from wind +2 ¢/kWh Remaining 45 states +3.6 ¢/kWh States with greatest increases in percent of electricity from wind experienced lowest electric power price increases.

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/)

Health Cost Savings due to WWS in NYS

Ai ll ti kill 4000/ i NYS ti Air pollution kills 4000/year in NYS, costing $33 billion/year, or 3% of NYS GDP NYS needs ~270 GW ($570 billion) of installed power to convert to WWS for all

• purposes. Health cost savings alone

would pay for WWS in ~17 y

July 15, 2012 by DS Jacobson

New Jobs and Price Stability From WWS in NYS

WWS will generate 71,000 permanent jobs/year for energy facilities alone. Since >98% WWS will be in NYS but most fossils are from out of state, conversion to fossils are from out of state, conversion to WWS increases NYS jobs. Since WWS fuels are free, their prices do not fluctuate.

Info.ussolarinstitute.com

Myths About WWS Versus Other Energy

• 1. Renewable energy can’t possibly be used to provide the world’s

gy p y p energy because there is not enough of it, it takes too much space, and it is expensive.

• 2. Natural gas is a “clean” fuel, so there is no reason to use renewable

energy systems.

• 3. There is no reason to transition quickly away from fossil fuels to wind,

water, and sun.

• 4. Natural gas reduces global warming relative to coal so should be

used as a “bridge fuel” between fossil fuels and renewables.

• 5. Electric cars don’t go very far, take forever to charge, and cost a lot to

drive.

Myths About WWS Versus Other Energy

• 6. Renewable energies such as wind and solar are uncontrollable so

cannot be used to provide electric power reliably. cannot be used to provide electric power reliably.

• 7. Wind, water, and solar technologies are much more expensive than

are fossil fuels. 8.Renewable energy technologies won’t create so many jobs as fossil fuel jobs. j

• 9. Wind turbines kill more birds than do other energy sources.

10 Wind turbines and solar panels take up a lot of land

• 10. Wind turbines and solar panels take up a lot of land.

Wind Turbines and Birds

Infrastructure (in U.S.) *Bird deaths/yr Wind turbines 58,000-440,000 Communication towers 4-50 million Cats 80 million Buildings 0 3 1 billion Buildings 0.3-1 billion Electric power source ^Bird deaths/GWh ect c po e sou ce d deat s/G Wind 0.3 Nuclear 0.4 Coal/natural gas 5.2

*American Bird Conservancy/Fish & Wildlife Service (2012); ^Sovacool (Energy Policy, 2009)

Converting to WWS + electricity/H2 reduces world power demand ~32%

Summary of Plan to Power World With WWS

Converting to WWS + electricity/H2 reduces world power demand 32% Eliminates ~2.5-3 million air pollution deaths/yr (~3% of GDP) Eliminates global warming, provides energy stability Generates more permanent jobs than destroys Reduces economic electricity costs compared with those of fossil fuels Requires only 0.4% more of world land for footprint; 0.6% for spacing Multiple th d f dd i WWS i bilit methods of addressing WWS variability. Materials are not limits although recycling may be needed. Barriers : up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, politics. p , , y g, p

More Info and The Solutions Project

www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html http://www.thesolutionsproject.org/ @SolutionsWWS (Twitter)