Saving lives on roads A cost curve to prioritise road safety actions - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Saving lives on roads

September, 2013

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited

A cost curve to prioritise road safety actions

McKinsey & Company 1

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SOURCE: World Bank; WHO

1.9 1.3 2020 2010 Global road traffic fatalities Millions

Road crashes are the second highest

cause of premature death and disability for children

Road traffic crashes kill 1.3 million and

seriously injure 50 million annually

The annual cost to society is ~$520b,

more than 1.6% of global GDP

Road crashes are one societies primary causes of premature death, and costing society >$500 Billion

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2011-2020 will be the “Decade of Action for Road Safety”

UN Proclaims 2011-2020 as Decade of Action for Road Safety Goals:

Reduce deaths in 2020 by 50% Save 5m lives and prevent 50m injuries

• ver decade

SOURCE: UN General Assembly, Commission for Global Road Safety

A clear aspiration EU endorse the ‘road safety orientation 2011-2020’ Goals:

Reduce deaths in 2020 by 50%

The commission invite the state members to allocate necessary resources to develop coherent and cost-effective action plans

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| 33.2 29.0 25.2 20.8 20.7 19.9 16.8 16.5 14.4 12.3 8.7 7.4 6.9 6.9 6.8 5.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 Brazil India China Greece USA Italy Denmark France Spain Australia Mexico World Russia Saudi Arabia Germany South Africa Sweden Netherlands Japan United Kingdom

Fatality rates are very different across the world

Source: World Health Organisation

Road fatalities per 100,000 people 2007/8

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Why is road safety a difficult problem to tackle?

Insurance companies Government (infr/transport) NGO Car Manufacturers Police

Many stakeholders are involved – adding significant complexity to problem Key sources of complexity

Many decision makers with

different agendas

Much room for improve

coordination among stakeholders

No direct link between beneficiaries

and investors

Healthcare systems

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SOURCE: Water Resources Group, GHG cost curve

McKinsey has used economic science to approach other global burdens

Case Study – Water scarcity

‘Global economics of water’ delivered a

comprehensive view of the challenges and solutions facing water sector

Impact has been the implementation of

water scarcity reduction initiatives in several countries + global recognition (Davos) Case Study – Water scarcity

‘Pathways to a low carbon economy’

created a universal language for GHG policy design and negotiation

GHG curve playing an instrumental role in

COP governmental negotiations and policy design

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Our five-step approach to building a road safety strategy

Rank by impact and cost effectiveness Build Cost Curve Gather commitment from all relevant stakeholders Involve stakeholders Identify root causes of the region’s fatalities Create ‘crash profile’ Map all potential relevant initiatives Develop library of initiatives Prioritise initiatives and build detailed strategy and action plan Develop Strategy & implementa- tion plan

1 2 3 4 5

SOURCE: McKinsey

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To ensure ownership of plan, it is crucial to involve all stakeholders from day 1

Responsible government official Police Infrastructure authority Transport authority Healthcare (hospitals) NGOs, associations Academia Private sector (automobile, insurance, suppliers, other) Stakeholders will be involved in: Data collection Solution development Ownership of implementation The ultimate decision maker in region should be involved, either as:

the project sponsor Or the head of the steering

committee to ensure implementation

SOURCE: McKinsey

1

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Specific ‘crash profiles’ support the identification of root causes

Other vehicles involved and driver ages Violated road code articles Age, Percent Time of the day1 Accident dynamics2 Day of the week, Percent 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 9 10 12 11 12 10 10 1 >80 75 65 55 45 35 25 <15

Road accidents/fatalities dashboard

Total: 4,009 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 8 9 11 11 12 11 12 5 75 65 55 45 35 25 <15 12 6 18 W 38 M 62 8 Other 5 Pedestrians PTW 39 Cars 47 W 30 M 70 108 108 195 220 263 281 290 411 945 157 149 189 191 143 190 007 146 145 154 1,265 141 1,624 FR/LT crash 91 LT crash 98 Running over 107 Hit with vehicle 213 Off the road 219 FR crash 414 Hit with obstacle 500 Fall from vehicle 1,197

2009, accidents with injuries

Percent Total: 3,363

1 Based on 2009-10 2 FR = Frontal; LT = Lateral

10 18 18 12 15 13 14 M T W F S S T DISGUISED CLIENT EXAMPLE

Higher rate of mortality for PTW1 vs. car and higher stock

• f PTW penalize overall Italian and Florence ranking

2008

1 Powered Two Wheels 2 Improved vs. 2007/8 (8.7)

ESTIMATES

4.3 4.3 6.7 5.4 7.2 DE FI IT 7.92 SE UK FR Fatality per 100,000 people 2.5 2.1 3.4 2.9 1.1 3.5 SE UK FR DE FI IT Car fatality per 100,000 people 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 2.6 1.1 SE UK FR DE FI IT Pedestrians fatality per 100,000 people 0.7 0.8 1.7 0.9 3.3 2.3 SE UK FR DE FI IT PTW fatality per 100,000 people Other fatality per 100,000 people 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.6 Ø 0.6 SE UK FR DE FI IT 4.7 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.5 6.1 Ø 5.1 SE UK FR DE FI IT 1.4 3.8 4.4 1.9 1.7 1.5 UK DE FR SE Ø 2.9 FI IT 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.9 1.6 UK SE DE Ø 0.6 IT FI FR Car fatality per 10,000 car Cars per 10 people PTW fatality per 10,000 PTW PTW per 10 people 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.8 9.3 1.0 SE UK FR DE FI IT

Il ~30% degli incidenti gravi è associabile a guida in stato di ebbrezza

8 18 38 50 30 26 19 24 Ø 30 Donne decedute in incidenti stradali correlati all’alcol Uomini deceduti in incidenti stradali correlati all’alcol Incidenti non mortali in Italia correlati all’alcol Decessi in incidenti stradali in Italia correlati all’alcol Contromano in stato di alterazione (2010) Omissioni di soccorso correlate a uso di alcol in Italia (2010) Violazioni art. 186 a Firenze in incidenti mortali (2008-10) 32 Percento Fonte

Percentuale incidenti con dato non disponibile

Crash dashboard Behavioural factor contribution Geographical analyses

Geographic localization of accidents

Benchmarking tree

SOURCE: McKinsey

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A library of suitable countermeasures is structured along six dimensions

Bank of over

200 initiatives from academic and corporate literature

Roughly 100

initiatives categorised and ready to use

Continuous

update driven by technology, legislation, new ideas

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Initial toolbox – infrastructure

Correct erroneous traffic signs Reconstruction and rehabilitation of roads Take area-wide traffic calming measures Staggered junctions Improve road alignment and sight distance Create urban arterial roads Enlarge urban arterial roads Create environmental streets Cycle lanes Canalize of junctions Roundabouts Grade-separated junctions Introduce road medians Guard rails and crash cushions Improve road lighting Improve tunnels Improve road surface friction Introduce pedestrian streets Low Medium High Initiative Impact Cost estimate Implementation time DISGUISED CLIENT EXAMPLE

Infrastructure

Initial toolbox – others

Follow intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) N/A N/A Use airbag for motorbikes (on vehicle and clothing) N/A N/A N/A Reduce BAC limit from 0.05 to 0.02 Reduce BAC limit for young drivers Enhance restrictions for DUI-convicted drivers Enhance treatment for DUI-convicted drivers Pay accrued insurance bonus in cash New safety standards compliance Hold multi-theme education campaigns Conduct single-theme education campaigns Hold single-theme education campaigns with enforcement Provide education of school children (5-12) Have electronic stability control N/A N/A Alcohol ignition interlocks N/A N/A Have bicycle safety equipment N/A N/A Low Medium High DISGUISED CLIENT EXAMPLE Initiative Impact Cost estimate Implementation time Provide education of pre-school children (0-6)

Regulation

Initial toolbox – others

Follow intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) N/A N/A Use airbag for motorbikes (on vehicle and clothing) N/A N/A N/A Reduce BAC limit from 0.05 to 0.02 Reduce BAC limit for young drivers Enhance restrictions for DUI-convicted drivers Enhance treatment for DUI-convicted drivers Pay accrued insurance bonus in cash New safety standards compliance Hold multi-theme education campaigns Conduct single-theme education campaigns Hold single-theme education campaigns with enforcement Provide education of school children (5-12) Have electronic stability control N/A N/A Alcohol ignition interlocks N/A N/A Have bicycle safety equipment N/A N/A Low Medium High DISGUISED CLIENT EXAMPLE Initiative Impact Cost estimate Implementation time Provide education of pre-school children (0-6)

Technology

Initial toolbox – others

Follow intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) N/A N/A Use airbag for motorbikes (on vehicle and clothing) N/A N/A N/A Reduce BAC limit from 0.05 to 0.02 Reduce BAC limit for young drivers Enhance restrictions for DUI-convicted drivers Enhance treatment for DUI-convicted drivers Pay accrued insurance bonus in cash New safety standards compliance Hold multi-theme education campaigns Conduct single-theme education campaigns Hold single-theme education campaigns with enforcement Provide education of school children (5-12) Have electronic stability control N/A N/A Alcohol ignition interlocks N/A N/A Have bicycle safety equipment N/A N/A Low Medium High DISGUISED CLIENT EXAMPLE Initiative Impact Cost estimate Implementation time Provide education of pre-school children (0-6)

Post-accident care

Initial toolbox – others

Follow intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) N/A N/A Use airbag for motorbikes (on vehicle and clothing) N/A N/A N/A Reduce BAC limit from 0.05 to 0.02 Reduce BAC limit for young drivers Enhance restrictions for DUI-convicted drivers Enhance treatment for DUI-convicted drivers Pay accrued insurance bonus in cash New safety standards compliance Hold multi-theme education campaigns Conduct single-theme education campaigns Hold single-theme education campaigns with enforcement Provide education of school children (5-12) Have electronic stability control N/A N/A Alcohol ignition interlocks N/A N/A Have bicycle safety equipment N/A N/A Low Medium High DISGUISED CLIENT EXAMPLE Initiative Impact Cost estimate Implementation time Provide education of pre-school children (0-6)

Education

Initial toolbox - Enforcement

Initiative Impact Cost estimate Implementation time Low Medium High Increase speed controls Increase automatic speed controls Doubling speed controls Seatbelts use (front and rear) Increase of patrols Red light cameras Increase alcohol and drug tests check points Roadside controls Controls on appropriate mobile phone usage Helmets Dangerous driving for motorcycles Fine pedestrians crossing out of the zebra crossings Fine cyclists on the wrong side of the road Controls on U-turn and lane changes Control on proper use of lights during the day/night Children seatbelt enforcement Control on moppeds Randomization of control sites and time of the day N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. DISGUISED CLIENT EXAMPLE

Enforcement

SOURCE: Literature, McKinsey

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Road safety impact Fatalities & severe injuries per year

A Cost Curve enables economic comparison and prioritisation of initiatives

Speed Lottery! Driving classes for adults Limit heavy vehicle traffic ICC alcohol campaigns Alcohol lock Pedestrian guardrails Protective wearing for motorbikes Education in cultural sport associations ICC Motor Dangerous driving Update road signals Traffic Calming Measures Required blood test for fatal accidents Pedestrian reflectors 30 KM/H zones Fine ped crossing dangerously ID for pedestrians ICC Helmet Increase penalties Education in Schools (helmet) Green Waves @ traffic light Parents patrolling near schools Law severity (“road homicide”) Road safety education Fines for improper parking Walkway lightening ICC on Pedestrian Education for adults No long parking areas Pedestrian crossing relocations Educate motor drivers @ purchase Raised pedestrian crossings Increase traffic lights Pedestrian areas ICC Cellular Phone Rumble strips Reduce advertising Lightening Classes to renew licenses Road pavement improving Registration/ID for bikers Adhere to newest vehicle safety standards ICC on seat belts for children Individual speed warnings Airbag for motorbikes Pedestrian button @ junctions Congestion charge Speed control devices All red' traffic light phases Train transport Increase roundabouts Education for cyclists Use of full Helmet Alcohol test in every pocket No parking near ped. crossings Count-down at ped. crossings "All pedestrian" phases No X junctions in large streets Automatic pedestrian alert on cars Increase night patrolling Reflective paint @ ped. crossings Public transports @ night Staggered ped. Crossing Increase bus/taxi lanes Grade-separated crossings Install cycle lanes Increase use of T-red New access streets Public transports Larger pavement @ ped . Crossing Homogenize roundabouts Channelization of junctions

1 ICC = Information, Communication and Control campaign

EUROPEAN CITY EXAMPLE

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SOURCE: European city road safety plan

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SOURCE: Team analysis, European city road safety plan 2020

A detailed strategy and implementation plan is built on five cornerstones

• 1. Clearly defined strategy and aspiration

Comprehensive, cross sector, evidence-

driven

Targets/goals broken down into sub-sectors

• 2. Implementation plan

Concrete and prioritised initiatives to launch

backed by adequate scientific evidence

Implementation plan: actions, responsibilities,

timeline

• 3. Clear metrics and effective monitoring

Effective data collection and aggregation KPIs per sub sector /root cause /stakeholder

• 4. Governance

Interdisciplinary steering committee Transparent lines of accountability

• 5. Clear communication

Communication strategy in place Planned and ad-hoc communication of

success and failures

"You cannot communicate enough!"

Five cornerstones of a road safety strategy

Initiatives Speed control devices ICC1 pedestrian Education for adults Road safety Curriculum @ schools Maximum fines ICC1 dangerous driving ICC1 mobile phones Road homicide ICC1 alcohol Alcohol lock Green boxes Transport @ night Green waves Roundabouts Traffic lights Optimizing pedestrian crossing Light @ pedestrian crossing 30 Km/h zones Traffic calming Infrastruc- ture Technology Enforce- ment Legislation Education

Example 10-year implementation plan for a European city

2011 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020 Lottery Enforcement Running classes Lottery Enforcement Lottery Rump-up Enforcement 3rd wav 2nd campaign 2nd wave 1st wave

5

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World Health Organisation are encouraging National Action along 5 pillars

This Plan is intended as a guiding document that will facilitate coordinated and concerted action towards the achievement of the goal and objectives of the Decade of Action for Road Safety At a national level countries are encouraged to implement the following five pillars

SOURCE: WHO, FIA

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Yet the exact methodology and approach to implementation is still unclear in many countries

Global alignment & acknowledgement of need for action Global aspiration and goals; Global action plan Concrete methodology for National Action Plans Implementation of action plan Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Decade of Action ‘road map’

• UN General Assembly

Partners in promoting Decade of Action

• FIA and partners bring

Road Fatalities to the centre of the international agenda

• More than a million

people support call for UN action

• Clear goals are set:

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Reduce deaths in 2020 by 50%

–

Save 5 mn lives and prevent 50 mn injuries

• ver decade
• Goals are externally

communicated and agreed upon

• Global Plan facilitates action

towards achievement of goals – globally and nationally

• Develop concrete

methodology for ensuring selection of impact oriented solutions

–

Scientifically based methodology that enables cost-effective solution development

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Holistic, fact based, quantified list of potential countermeasures

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Implementation tools that everyone can use and understand

• Build implementation

scenarios based upon different levels of adoption across countries

• Countries will need to take

action:

–

Declare own targets

–

Build country specific action plans

–

Be accountable for implementation

• International body will

coordinate implementation, as well as reinforce and monitor for goal achievement (FIA, other?)

• Global funding models for

developing countries will be decided upon

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Thank you