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SATELLITE THREAT DUE TO HIGH ALTITUDE NUCLEAR DETONATIONS DENNIS PAPADOPOULOS PHYSICS DEPARTMENT UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND Acknowledge Input From DTRA HAND/HALEOS STUDY TETHER PANEL HAARP STUDY OUTLINE The Threat : Nuclear

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SLIDE 1

SATELLITE THREAT DUE TO HIGH ALTITUDE NUCLEAR DETONATIONS

DENNIS PAPADOPOULOS PHYSICS DEPARTMENT UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

Acknowledge Input From

  • DTRA HAND/HALEOS STUDY
  • TETHER PANEL HAARP STUDY
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SLIDE 2

OUTLINE

  • The Threat : Nuclear Detonations in Space
  • EMP Effects – Prompt (<1sec)

HEMP, MHD-EMP, SGEMP

  • Relativistic Particle Injection into the Radiation

Belts (Van Allen Belts) – Delayed Effects Months to Years

  • Damage to Space Assets and Mitigation Options
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SLIDE 3

How Could It Happen? How Could It Happen?

  • Collateral damage from regional nuclear war or

TMD/NMD intercept:

– Nuclear warning shot in a regional conflict; – Effort to damage adversary forces/infrastructure with electromagnetic pulse; – Detonation of salvage-fused warhead upon exoatmospheric intercept attempt.

  • Deliberate effort to cause economic damage with lower

likelihood of nuclear retaliation:

– By rogue state facing economic strangulation or imminent military defeat; – Pose economic threat to the industrial world without causing human casualties or visible damage to economic infrastructure.

From HALEOS Study

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SLIDE 4

H and MHD EMP

  • Line of Sight
  • Not a Threat to

space assets

  • Major Threat to

Ground Systems and ground infrastructure Early (nanosecs) and late (secs) GHz to Hz

  • Mitigation

Hardening except for MHD

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SLIDE 5

50 KT Burst over North Korea at 120 km altitude 50 KT Burst over North Korea at 120 km altitude

Upset >>>>>> Burnout

Prompt X Prompt X-radiation impacts 5-10% of each LEO constellation.

0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

1 . E

  • 6

3 . E

  • 6

1 . E

  • 5

3 . E

  • 5

1 . E

  • 4

3 . E

  • 4

Minimum X-ray fluence level (cal/cm2) Globalstar (1414 km 52 deg) Iridium (780 km 86.4 deg.)

Fraction of satellite constellation exposed to X-ray level (Simplified, single-plane, polar orbit illustration.)

SYSTEM GENERATED EMP - SGEMP

From HALEOS Study

  • Prompt – line of sight – burst dependent
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SLIDE 6

10-6 10-5 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 1

Program Cost (%)

6 5 4 3 2 1

Thermo- Mechanical and neutron effects Latchup (screen) TREE & SGEMP Upset Analysis & Design SGEMP Protection & Test TREE Burnout Protection & Test Cost to harden to natural environments

X-ray Fluence [cal/cm2]

Cost increases for higher threat levels

Hardening goal

COST OF HARDENING AGAINST SGEMP

From HALEOS Study

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SLIDE 7
  • Effect of a single high altitude nuclear weapon

detonation on LEO satellites

– Nuclear burst “pumps” Earth’s Van Allen radiation belts with energetic electrons generated from beta decay of fission fragments – Satellites that fly through these enhanced belt regions will be rapidly degraded/destroyed due to a rapid accumulation of total ionizing dose on critical satellite electronic parts.

RADIATION BELT PUMPING

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SLIDE 8

BASICS- THE EARTH’s MAGNETIC FIELD

  • Magnetic Configuration
  • L - Shells
  • Inner RB (1.5<L<2.2)
  • Slot (2.2<L<3)
  • Outer (L>3)
  • Invariant Latitude
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SLIDE 9

TRAPPING AND MIRRORING OF TRAPPING AND MIRRORING OF ENERGETIC PARTICLES IN THE ENERGETIC PARTICLES IN THE RADIATION BELTS RADIATION BELTS

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SLIDE 10

THE VAN ALLEN BELTS

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SLIDE 11
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SLIDE 12

Low earth orbit (LEO) Elliptical orbit Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO, GSO) Inner Radiation Belt Outer Radiation Belt Medium earth orbit (MEO)

Highly idealized depiction of natural radiation belts. Inclination of each satellite orbit set to zero for display purposes.

Semi-synchronous orbit

Earth

SATELLITE MOTION THROUGH THE BELTS

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SLIDE 13

THE ROLE OF MeV ELECTRONS

– MeV electrons cause internal charging of dielectric surfaces

  • Cumulative radiation dose
  • Loss of attitude control
  • Degradation of performance
  • Swelling of mirror surfaces
  • Darkening of glassy surfaces
  • Solar cell degradation
  • Thermal control degradation
  • Damage electronic components
  • Limits lifetime

ESA Study 2001 Most of satellite designers identified internal charging caused by MeV electrons as their most important problem (Horne 2001)

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SLIDE 14
  • Internal charging and ESD is related to MeV

electron flux (variations)

– more than 20 spacecraft damaged [Wrenn and Smith, 1996]

  • Several examples of spacecraft damaged during

storms when flux was enhanced, e.g., Baker et al. [1998]

– 1994: Intelsat K, Anik E1, & E2 – 1997: Telstar 401 – 1998: Galaxy IV

  • US National Security Space Architect:

– 13 satellites lost in 16 years that can be attributed clearly to natural enhancement ( flux of 108 #/cm2 sec) of MeV electrons

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SLIDE 15

STARFISH High Altitude Burst - 1962

  • Yield: 1.4 MT
  • Altitude: 400 km above Johnson Island
  • Produced a large number of beta electrons

which became trapped in the Earth’s magnetic field causing an intense, artificial radiation belt

  • “Pumped Belts” lasted until the early 1970’s
  • Seven satellites destroyed within seven months

Seven satellites destroyed within seven months

– Examples: Examples: Satellite Satellite Cause Cause Transit 4B Transit 4B Solar Cell Degradation Solar Cell Degradation Traac Traac Solar Cell Degradation Solar Cell Degradation Ariel Ariel Solar Cell Degradation Solar Cell Degradation Telstar Telstar Command Decoder Failure Command Decoder Failure

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SLIDE 16

Natural Electron Population

Flux [e-/cm 2/s]

>106 >105 104

Energy > 1MeV electrons

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SLIDE 17

Natural and Enhanced Electron Population One Day After Burst Over Korea

Flux [e-/cm 2/s]

>106 >105 104

Energy > 1MeV electrons

>108

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SLIDE 18

Natural and Enhanced Electron Population Two Years After Burst Over Korea

>106 >105 104 Flux [e-/cm 2/s]

Energy > 1MeV electrons

>108 >107 >106

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SLIDE 19

RUMSFELD II REPORT

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SLIDE 20

SUMMARY

  • LEO constellations present tempting targets to future

nuclear-missile-armed rogues, lowering the nuclear threshold.

  • LEO constellations may be destroyed as a by-product of

nuclear detonations with other objectives (e.g., EMP generation, salvage-fusing at nmd intercept, nuclear interceptor).

  • Loss of civilian and military communications, imaging,

weather forecasting, scientific infrastructure in space

  • Socio-economic and political damage due to dependence
  • n LEO constellations

Is there mitigation besides hardening ?

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SLIDE 21

0.1 1.0 10 40 30 20 10

Months After Burst 30 Krad (Si)

Source: DNA

Bay of Bengal 50 kT burst At 250 km 100 mil Al Number of Assets Remaining 1.5 MeV Electrons Flux

LEO SATELLITE DEGRADATION

  • Possible mitigation if MeV electron lifetime is reduced to few
  • days. TETHER PANEL RECOMMENDATION
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SLIDE 22

in

  • ut

in=out in

  • ut

in=out Inject a bucket of water

  • Time to return to the equilibrium level depends on
  • utflow rate. The bigger the outflow hole the faster the

system will get back to its natural equilibrium.

CONTROL OF ELECTRON LOSS RATE

  • What process controls the electron loss rate
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SLIDE 23

Interaction with VLF Waves Controls Loss Rate

  • ELF/VLF waves resonantly interact with charged

particles

  • Interaction pushes the particle velocity vector

toward the magnetic field line

  • long lifetime ⇔ high reflection altitude ⇔ low v||
  • Particles become more likely to precipitate into the

upper atmosphere

  • Lifetime reduction is proportional to the ELF/VLF

signal energy stored in the radiation belts

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SLIDE 24

LIFETIME CONTROL BY VLF WAVES

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SLIDE 25

>106 >105 104 >108

Explosion-excited region

Loss rate proportional to local energy density of VLF waves

Is it feasible to pump up the VLF energy in the selected regions to the required level ?

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SLIDE 26
  • How many satellites are needed

to reduce lifetime to ten days ?

  • Too many (100s).
  • Is there a way out ?
  • Yes - Amplification
  • The energy of the relativistic

electrons can amplify the waves 10 dB amplification reduces the # of satts to tens while 20 dB to few. Is there evidence for amplification ?

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SLIDE 27

VLF Wave-Injection Experiments

Interaction Region

VLF Wave-injection from Siple Station, Antarctica

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SLIDE 28
  • Injected Siple signals often amplified

by 10 to 30 dB and new emissions triggered

– For input Bw > Bth

  • Bth=0.1 to 0.5 pT
  • Amplification is more likely to occur

during times of enhanced fluxes of energetic radiation belt electrons

Siple Experiments Natural Amplification of Injected Signal

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SLIDE 29

Understanding and Using Natural Amplification

  • Using natural amplification can dramatically reduce

the size and cost of a satellite protection system

  • To use natural amplification reliably, experiments

are needed which transmit and receive ELF/VLF

  • ver a wide range of frequencies
  • Experiments could use satellite or ground-based

transmitters, but: conventional transmitters (ground

  • r satellite) can only cover a narrow frequency range
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SLIDE 30
  • Observe amplified and

triggered waves

– At conjugate region (Southern Pacific) – Near HAARP upon reflection in the south

  • Observe ionospheric effects
  • f precipitated electrons with

HAARP diagnostics

TETHER Panel Recommendation: Use HAARP facility in Alaska as a “wind tunnel” to determine the feasibility and engineering specifications of a mitigation system.

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SLIDE 31

What is HAARP?

  • Large ionospheric research facility in central Alaska
  • Joint project of AFRL and ONR
  • Powerful, flexible source of ELF/VLF signals over a very wide

frequency range (0.1 Hz – 40 kHz)

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SLIDE 32
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SLIDE 33

CONCLUDING REMARKS

  • A HANE will have deleterious consequences to

the LEO constellations

– Prompt EMP effects will affect line of sight ground and space based systems

  • Affect < 10% of LEO constellations
  • Only mitigation is hardening
  • Replacement possible

– Long term effects involve pumping of the radiation belts with MeV electrons due to beta decay

  • Affect the entire fleet of satellites at the injection L-shell
  • Replacement not possible for probably one year
  • Mitigation includes orbit changing and radiation belt

“pump out”