SAHTU REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOL SET Objectives - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SAHTU REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOL SET Objectives To Support Decision-Making: To assess current and future cumulative effects of land use To Communicate Trends: To visually communicate environmental trends
■ To Support Decision-Making: – To assess current and future cumulative effects of land use ■ To Communicate Trends: – To visually communicate environmental trends and consequences of alternative scenarios ■ To Collaborate: – To integrate Sahtu research and data projects and apply western and traditional knowledge to review changes to the landscape
■ Year One – Integrate Regional Data – Workshop on Uses of Decision- Support Tool ■ Year Two – Forecast Future Land Use Change – Workshop on Priority Areas – Identify how to use local knowledge ■ Year Three – Integrate local knowledge – Deliver priority pilot studies – Prepare Sahtu Atlas Collaborate with Research Teams Annual Workshops with the Sahtu ERM Forum
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Geographic Information System (GIS) Dynamic Landscape & Landuse Simulator Example Future: Boreal Caribou Range Disturbance, 2030 How it Works:
Landscapes
Mid 1800’s 2015
What-If Scenario B? What-If Scenario A?
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Looking at Futures:
Sustainability
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Forestry Energy Mining Roads, Transport Towns Trapping Hunting Human Population Plants, Berry Picking Conservation Areas Tourism Recreation Hunting, Fishing Assorted Industry
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Climate and Climate Change Hydrological Cycle Natural Disturbance Regimes Plant Community Dynamics Carbon Pool Dynamics Wildlife Habitat Wildlife Populations Landscape Metrics
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Landscape composition today An Atlas of the Sahtu
Introduction Physical Flora Population Zoning Land Uses Footprints Landscape Metrics Extras Input and Outputs
% of Landbase covered by forest
% of area covered by water
Wetland areas
Shrub, rock, etc.
Sahtu Land Use Scenario: ■ NWT Statistics Population Growth ■ Mackenzie Valley Highway built 2027 ■ Shale Oil development starts after 2027 ■ Climate WMC model ■ Selwyn Mine built after 2027 Data Sources Include: ■ NWT Statistics ■ Climate WMC Model ■ NWT Geomatics/ Discovery Portal Data ■ National Forestry Database ■ National Energy Board
What will change? What future scenario(s) could be used?
2010
2030
2060
Assumes Mackenzie Highway built in 2027
Time Since Last Fire, 2060
Predicting changes to Boreal Caribou
What Environmental Issues and Sahtu Regions are a Priority?
■ Mountain ■ Mountain and Barren Land Caribou Ranges
What will the Future be Made of?
Current Collaborators:
Regulators
(Land Birds)
■ Develop traditional knowledge information to inform decision-making ■ Integrate data together to help forecast Sahtu futures ■ Looking Backward, together