Rural Transformation for Food Security and Poverty Reduction Racha - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Rural Transformation for Food Security and Poverty Reduction Racha - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Rural Transformation for Food Security and Poverty Reduction Racha Ramadan Applying Quantitative Analysis to Development Issues Conference Bilbliotheca Alexandrina- 2018 Motivation Structural transformation is defined as the shift of an

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Rural Transformation for Food Security and Poverty Reduction

Racha Ramadan

Applying Quantitative Analysis to Development Issues Conference Bilbliotheca Alexandrina- 2018

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Motivation

  • “Structural transformation is defined as the shift of an

economy’s structure from low-productivity, labour-intensive activities to higher productivity, capital and skill intensive activities” (Structural Transformation in Developing countries –UN Habitat).

  • As a result of successful structural change; employment

move from lower to higher productivity sectors and output in lower productivity sectors increases.

  • Under structural transformation, the relative importance of

agriculture sector to the overall economy decreases!!

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Take Home Messages

  • Rural transformation matters for poverty reduction and

food security.

  • At

advanced stages

  • f

structural and rural transformation, agribusiness and agro-industry play an important role.

  • Micro data is needed to better understand rural

transformation and its impact on households’ welfare.

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Structural Transformation Drawbacks

  • Widening the gap between urban and rural labor

productivity.

  • Women

are trapped in low productivity sectors (Marotta et al, 2015).

  • Low agricultural per capita output and productivity

lead to dreadful effects on food security and social

  • stability. Especially in a context of food crisis.
  • The difficulties in feeding rapidly growing cities.

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Rural Transformation

  • Under structural transformation, the relative importance of

agriculture sector to the overall economy decreases, but productivity of agriculture sector should increase.

  • Rural Transformation!
  • “Rural transformation involves rising agricultural productivity,

increasing commercialization and marketable surpluses, and diversification of production patterns and livelihoods. It also involves expanded decent

  • ff-farm

employment and entrepreneurial

  • pportunities,

better rural coverage and access to services and infrastructure, and greater access to, and capacity to influence, relevant policy processes”. (IFAD, 2016).

  • Advantages of rural transformation include transition out of

poverty, women empowerment and ensuring food security.

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Agricultural Development, Rural development and Rural Transformation are intertwinted with other larges processes

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Stylized Facts

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5 3 8 5 6 5 8 6 24 18 20 17 33 33 37 34 31 27 41 38 30 28 36 25 62 63 55 60 63 67 50 56 46 54 44 58 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 Central Europe and the Baltics East Asia & Pacific Latin America & the Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Distribution of VA by sectors (% of GDP) in different regions

Agriculture Industrial Services

Source: World Development Indicators

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9 Source: World Development Indicators

17 11 13 14 11 11 33 36 30 29 30 27 50 53 57 56 58 62 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 Egypt Morocco Tunisia

Distribution of VA by sectors (% of GDP) in three MENA countries

Agriculture Industry Service

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Rural Transformation - Poverty Food Security

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y = 0.4183x + 0.7767 R² = 0.2028

  • 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

  • 1
  • 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 GDP per capita Growth Rural Transformation

Agricultural VA per Worker and GDP per capita (2000-2015)

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y = -0.0005x + 43.718 R² = 0.3537

  • 10

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000

  • Pr. of Children suffering fom anemia

Ag VA per worker

Agricultural VA per Worker and Food Security

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Egypt

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Poverty and Food Security in Egypt

Poverty and Food security is an important challenge facing the Egyptian government:

  • 27.8 percent of the population considered as poor in

2014/2015.

  • A prevalence of undernourishment of 5 percent

2014/2015.

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9 10 11 15 22 27 29 32 2000 2004 2008 2010

Urban and Rural Poverty

Urban poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of urban population) Rural poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of rural population)

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  • Egypt suffers from the double burden of malnutrition;

under nutrition and over nutrition.

  • In 2014, the proportion of children under-five-year-olds

who suffer from wasting has increased to 9.5%, those suffering from stunting reached 22.3% and the proportion

  • f underweight reached 7%.
  • Anemia among children under-five-year-olds increased

from 42% in 1990 to 45.4% in 2011.

  • In the same period, the proportion of women (pregnant

and non-pregnant) suffering from anemia declined to 30% and 35% compared with 38% and 45% in 1990.

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21 21 21 20 20 22 22 22 23 24 25 24 25 24 24 25 30 29 28 30 32 31 31 32 32 30 28 29 27 28 28 26 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Employment in Industry and in Agriculture (% of total Employment)

Employment in industry (% of total employment) Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)

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1677 1749 1771 1817 1855 1907 1967 2025 2091 2158 2237 2305 2384 2470 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Agriculture Value Added per Worker (Constant 2005 US$)

Source: World Development Indicators

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50 50 49 48 48 49 48 49 49 49 48 48 50 50 50 53 55 33 33 35 36 37 36 38 37 38 38 38 38 39 39 39 36 33 17 17 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 14 14 15 11 11 11 11 12 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Distribution of VA by sectors (% of GDP)

Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) Industry, value added (% of GDP) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)

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98 34 69 46 Agricltural activities industrial activities Commercial activities Craft

Distribution of Villages according to the Economic Activities of its residents in Alexandria

Source: Egyptian Villages Survey- 2015 (4655 Villages)- CAPMAS

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Source: Egyptian Villages Survey- 2015 - CAPMAS

91 100 99 94 98 100 99 99 94 93 35 25 45 38 41 46 17 49 77 84 79 71 63 96 83 60 12 80 66 65 46 48 28 64 34 12 Damietta Dakahlia Sharkia Qalubia Kafr EL Sheikh Gharbia Menoufia Beheira Ismailia

Distribution of Economic Activities in Villages of Lower Egypt

Craft Commercial activities industrial activities Agricltural activities

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Source: Egyptian Villages Survey- 2015 - CAPMAS

95 98 100 100 99 97 98 87 96 34 33 33 84 21 20 24 20 17 58 75 50 94 44 47 41 57 52 46 31 6 92 29 5 33 41 54 Giza Beni Suef Fayoum Menya Assiut Sohag Qena Aswan Luxor

Distribution of Economic Activities in Villages of Upper Egypt

Craft Commercial activities industrial activities Agricltural activities

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Key Messages

  • Rural transformation matters!
  • Increasing

Agricultural productivity is needed to provide enough food supply to the increasing demand resulted from urbanization.

  • Micro data, in addition to Macro data, is needed to

better understand rural transformation and its impact

  • n households’ welfare.

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Thank You for your Attention

racha.ramadan@feps.edu.eg www.racharamadan.com

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