RISK-BASED APPROACHES FOR DECISION-MAKING IN SHIPPING RONALD PELOT, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

RISK-BASED APPROACHES FOR DECISION-MAKING IN SHIPPING

RONALD PELOT, PhD, P.Eng. Industrial Engineering Dalhousie University Ronald.Pelot@Dal.ca

OVERVIEW

• What is risk analysis in shipping?
• What is the scope of shipping risks in this Module?
• What role does risk analysis play in decision-making?
• Need for ongoing research

WHAT IS RISK ?

• Risk is the possibility of an event
• ccurring that will have an impact on the

achievement of objectives.

• Risk is measured in terms of impact and

likelihood:

• Risk = probability * consequences

WHAT ARE THE OBJECTIVES? (wrt managing the shipping risks)

• Whose objectives?
• Government/country
• Shipping industry
• Other industry
• Northern communities
• Types of objectives
• Minimize environmental impact
• Maximize safety in shipping
• Maximize efficient movement of goods
• Contribute to Sustainable Development of the North

IMPACT TYPES AND SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY

• Risks to ships?
• Delays
• Accidents
• Damage to ships
• SAR response
• Spills
• Spill response
• To crew/passengers
• etc.
• Risks from ships?
• Noise
• Discharges (incl. oil)
• Invasive species (ballast)
• Air emissions
• Mammal strikes
• Light disturbance
• Interference with other

activities

• etc.

CUMULATIVE EFFECTS → chain of probabilities

Priscilla Schmitz, Dalhousie

P(ship be at location [x,y]) P(stressor happens at location [x,y]) P(spread of stress from source[x,y]) P(receptor be inside the affected area) P(receptor be affected) 1 2 3 5 4

RISK AND DECISION MAKING – PHASES AND TRADEOFFS

Hazards Delivery Mechanism Immediate Consequences Ensuing Consequences Ultimate State EVENT Prevention Detection Response Recovery

Vulnerability Resilience

Strategies Pelot, 2008

INTRODUCING THE IRGC’S RISK GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK

RISK GOVERNANCE ̶ DRIVERS & DEVELOPMENTS (RENN, 2007)

• Governance refers to the actions, processes, laws, traditions and institutions by which authority

is exercised and decisions are taken and implemented.

• Risk is an uncertain (positive or negative) consequence of an event or an activity with respect to

something that humans value

• Risk governance refers to the actions, processes, laws, traditions and institutions by which

decisions about risk handling are prepared, taken and implemented

• Best practice in risk governance integrates the principles of good governance within the

processes of risk identification, assessment, management and communication and includes criteria such as effectiveness, accountability, efficiency, fairness and social and ethical acceptability

INTRODUCING THE IRGC’S RISK GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK

COMMON DEFICITS IN RISK GOVERNANCE (RENN, 2007)

• Framing – different stakeholders have conflicting views of the issue
• Scope – a risk perceived as only local may have global consequences (and vice versa)
• There is a scarcity of data about the risk or people’s perceptions of it or, if data does

exist, there is a failure to accept it

• Transparency – trade-offs are not made explicit and hidden agendas seem to

determine the outcome

• Inequity – decisions allot the risk and benefits unfairly
• Accountability – decision makers are isolated from the impact of their decision
• Alienation – people or organisations are ignored (can lead to social mobilisation) (also

“Authority knows best”)

• Lack of trust in the process or the communication channel
• “Paralysis by analysis” – overly inclusive process leads to inertia

INTRODUCING THE IRGC’S RISK GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK

HOW CATEGORISING THE KNOWLEDGE CAN HELP (RENN, 2007)

• Simple risk problems
• Cause/effect understood; management options relatively straightforward
• can be managed using a ‘routine-based’ strategy, such as introducing a law or regulation
• Complex risk problems
• difficulties in identifying and quantifying causal links between a multitude of potential causal

agents and specific observed effects.

• may be best addressed by accessing and acting on the best available scientific expertise,

aiming for a ‘risk-informed’ and ‘robustness-focussed’ strategy

• Uncertain risk problems
• lack of clarity or quality of the scientific or technical data (ex. some rare/extreme events)
• are better managed using ‘precaution-based’ and ‘resilience-focussed’ strategies, to

ensure the reversibility of critical decisions and to increase a system’s capacity to cope with surprises

• Ambiguous risk problems
• results from divergent or contested perspectives on the justification, severity or wider

meanings associated with a given threat (ex. Shipment of hormone treatment of cattle)

• require a ‘dialogue-based’ strategy aiming to create tolerance and mutual understanding of

conflicting views and values with a view to eventually reconciling them

RISK TYPES AND MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS (RENN, 2007)

SUMMARY

• The uncertainties in arctic shipping are large
• The potential consequences are large ( + and - )
• Research can help reduce the uncertainty
• Effective use of the research can help

formulate effective, equitable, evidence-based management strategies

Thanks!

Ronald.Pelot@Dal.ca