RISK ASSESSING THE PERFECT MURDER` Alan Smith Director | Matrix - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

RISK ASSESSING THE ‘PERFECT MURDER`

Alan Smith Director | Matrix Risk Control IADC SAPC 16 February 2017

A RISK ASSESSMENT AS WE KNOW IT?

TIMELINE OF A MURDER

March 22nd Fraser arrested for Att murder April 5th Car set on fire April 28th Arlene vanishes April 26th Fraser +2 charged January 7th Murder Trial

• No. 1

January 29th Fraser Convicted Of murder January 30th Fraser begins life Sentence May 25th Conviction quashed April 23rd Murder Trial

• No. 2

May 30th Fraser convicted For second time

Premeditated murder is the crime of wrongfully and intentionally causing the death of another human being… This particular High RiskTask = The premeditated murder of his wife.

…after rationally considering the timing or method of doing so, in order to either increase the likelihood of success, or to evade detection or apprehension

PREMEDITATED CRIMES SPONTANEOUS CRIMES

In the UK 98% of murders are spontaneous

Nat Fraser

SO WHY? - HIGH TARIFF REWARD

MONEY

Impending divorce settlement

FREEDOM

Facing lengthy prison sentence

CONTROL

Of his life and what’s in it

NAT FRASERS 4PS

PREPARATION PLANNING PEOPLE PROCESS Selecting Team / Roles / Method Body Disposal / Alibi Team Briefings – Covert meetings – His TBT ! Loyal, trustworthy and incentivised / Logistics / Execution De-Risking Police from a Murder Investigation (High) to a Missing person Enquiry (Med/Low)

Investigative Challenges

NO BODY NO CRIME SCENE

NO CONFESSION

NO DIRECT WITNESSES

FRASER`S MISTAKES ALIBI

INSIDE KNOWLEDGE

DRUG STAGING LIBRARY VISIT

ACCOMPLICE

CAR SOURCING

MEDICINES & GLASSES

ARLENE’S RINGS

FRASER`S MISTAKES ALIBI

INSIDE KNOWLEDGE

DRUG STAGING LIBRARY VISIT

ACCOMPLICE

CAR SOURCING

MEDICINES & GLASSES

ARLENE’S RINGS

FRASER`S BEHAVIOUR

OVERKILL RESPONSE THE KIDS WILL BE FINE

MONEY STASH

AVOIDED CONTACT WITH ACCOMPLICES

PRISON VISIT CCTV MATCHED FAMILY REWARD INTERACTION WITH FAMILY SHUNNED SOME FRIENDS

FRASER`S BEHAVIOUR

OVERKILL RESPONSE THE KIDS WILL BE FINE

MONEY STASH

AVOIDED CONTACT WITH ACCOMPLICES

PRISON VISIT CCTV MATCHED FAMILY REWARD INTERACTION WITH FAMILY SHUNNED SOME FRIENDS

TYPICAL INCIDENT CAUSES

RARELY SINGLE MAJOR MISTAKE

ACCUMULATION OF MINOR ERRORS

FAILURE TO FOLLOW PROCEDURES

UNEXPECTED CHANGE POOR HUMAN FACTORS

POOR INVESTIGATIONS AND RCA

LESSONS NOT LEARNED

NO ORGANISATIONAL IMPROVEMENT

A toolset and learning experience to get to the ROOT CAUSES of problems more quickly and efficiently. Uses proven INVESTIGATION techniques grounded in forensic practices to generate the optimum input data. Utilises unique COMET ROOTMAPS to identify root causes. Assists in creating PREVENTIVE ACTIONS to deal with the root cause preventing repeat failure.

Application Areas

…any situation where you need to know why something went wrong and how to prevent it again.

Safety Incidents Environmental Incidents Project reviews Business strategy failures Performance improvement Process failure Market / Product failures Equipment failure

Accidents and injuries. Spillages, leaks and damage. Learning lessons on failure to deliver. Understanding ‘lost’ and ‘wrong’ strategies. Losses and inefficiencies. Non-adherence and ineffective. Unable to achieve intended results. Costly shutdowns and outages

COMET Phases of Investigation & Analysis…

What we see…

Today I’m fishing!

Committed JV Drilling COMET lens project partner Serious about improving sector safety and performance Enthusiastic about investigation, analysis and improvement Willing to contribute Drilling industry technical knowledge to project development Be a geographical and sector COMET Champion and Enablor

What am I fishing for?

Over to You. Any Questions?

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