Results for the year ended 31 March 2014
Investing in the future of primary care property
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Results for the year ended 31 March 2014 Investing in the future of primary care property Introduction Graham Roberts Investing in the future of primary care property A year of significant achievement Major transaction completed Trinity
Investing in the future of primary care property
Investing in the future of primary care property
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0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Accounting Return Total Shareholder Return 2012/13 2013/14 15.9% 8.7% 18.6% 24.2%
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Primary healthcare
Industrial Residential market lets Office All Property Gilts Equities Retail All healthcare
2 4 6 8 4 8 12 16 20
7 year Total Return (%) Standard deviation (risk)
Source: IPD Seven‐year total returns vs standard deviation 2007‐2013 (since the inception of the healthcare index)
High Risk Lower Risk Higher Return Low Return
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– up 49% on previous rate, paid quarterly – fully covered and progressive
– annualised rent of 6.4% on £657m of property – 95% of today’s rent roll still receivable in 2024 – 14.4 years weighted average unexpired lease length – debt of 11 years average maturity, fixed at 5.28%
– strong brand and track record – development capability – scalable, fully internal management model
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1 Increase in EPRA NAV and dividends
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£35.9m (£0.2m) £0.4m £1.7m £4.0m £41.8m 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 Mar‐13 Disposals Lease events Completed developments & extensions Trinity acquisition Mar‐14
£m
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£8.8m £10.9m (£1.9m) (£0.1m) £4.1m 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 Mar 13 Net finance costs Admin expenses Net rental income Mar 14
£m
£523.6m £626.8m £3.2m £12.0m £24.5m £63.5m 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640 Mar‐13 Capex, disposals & transfers Revaluation gain Completed developments Additions Mar‐14
£m
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Mar‐14 Mar‐13 Net Initial Yield 5.88% 5.95% Equivalent Yield 6.04% 6.15%
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.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 Mar‐15 Mar‐16 Mar‐17 Mar‐18 Mar‐19 Mar‐20 Mar‐21 Mar‐22 Mar‐23 Mar‐24 Mar‐25 Mar‐26 Mar‐27 Mar‐28 Mar‐29
£m
12 months ended Trinity Existing
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Mar‐14 Mar‐13 Gross debt £451.9m £395.7m Weighted average maturity 10.9 years 11.3 years Weighted average cost of debt 5.28% 5.25%
.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0
£m
12 months ended Aviva Santander Bond
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Cash £35.7m £7.6m £4.1m £27.7m (£22.7m) (£6.6m) (£7.2m) Cash £38.6m Undrawn facility £2.6m 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 Mar‐13 Operations Net financing Disposal proceeds Property investment Trinity acquisition Dividend Mar‐14
£m
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£38.6m £38.6m £2.6m £2.6m £30.0m 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 Mar‐14 Mar‐14 + RCF
£m
Mar‐14 cash Undrawn committed facilities RCF £41.2m £71.2m
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£537.8m £557.3m £656.7m £58.6m £69.7m £57.0m 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 31/03/2012 31/03/2013 31/03/2014
£m
Gross assets
Investment properties Other £713.7m £627.0m
EPRA NAV: 36.3p 38.6p 43.4p
£596.4m
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Preston Lytham St Annes Leyburn
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Freckleton
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Willington Harlech Maidstone Y Felinheli
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Freckleton Leyburn
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– sole personal responsibility for a part of the portfolio – day to day aspects and relationship building, tenant and occupier satisfaction
– asset enhancement and extensions and lease re‐gearing – identification and delivery of sale and leasebacks
– identification and delivery of development schemes – relationship building with NHS Area Teams and GPs – forward funding and procurement
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5.09% 2.49% 3.23% 1.99% 4.52% 0.35% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 RPI/fixed (23% of rent roll) OMR (77% of rent roll) Absolute rent roll increase £m 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 £0.8m £1.2m
‐1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Land/construction index + 30 months v OMR reviews
Assura OMR (medical space) Index: 3 years (annual basis)
Investing in the future of primary care property 30 Source: BIS Resource Cost Index of House Building and Savills Development Land Index (Urban) / Company (Appendix 1.4)
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0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Yield development in long‐dated cash flows
Assura Net Initial Yield 15 Year Gilt IPD Supermarket Net Initial Yield (December prior)
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1. Market 1.1 Growing demand / inadequate supply 1.2 Market: policy direction supportive 1.3 Sector attractiveness 1.4 Market outlook – rents 1.5 Market outlook – yields 1.6 Core portfolio v IPD Healthcare 1.7 Assura well placed to outperform 2. Net assets 2.1 Adjusted net asset value 2.2 Adjusted net asset value movement 3. Portfolio 3.1 Total property assets 3.2 Capital value – core portfolio 3.3 Sensitivity analysis on core portfolio 3.4 Core portfolio lease lengths 3.5 Non‐core portfolio 3.6 Developments 4. Rents 4.1 Portfolio rental income growth over five years 4.2 ERV evolution and reversion 4.3 Rent reviews settled 4.4 Core portfolio rental growth 4.5 Core open market rents still increasing 4.6 Basis of rent reviews 5. REITs 5.1 REITs 6. Borrowings 6.1 Bank and bond facilities 6.2 Covenants 7. Dividends 7.1 Dividend calendar
Demand
party support for:
– More services delivered locally – Greater patient choice – More community based facilities (medical centres, polyclinics)
– Doubled in 10 years to £120bn
GPs has been increasing at 2.5% per annum
– Over 300 million visits per year
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Supply
– ¾ of GPs stated premises not suitable for future needs – ⅓ said not capable of complying with Disability Discrimination Act – ¼ said premises posed a risk to staff/patients – Insufficient actually built
time from April 2013
healthcare budget and told to lead NHS commissioning
Appendix 1.1
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Appendix 1.2
– Health spend is non‐discretionary – Planning environment ‘benign’ – District Valuer determines rent reviews
– Private businesses underwritten by Government – Premises are bespoke – GPs are not mobile – “stickiness”
– 21 years, no breaks – Upward and downward not less than initial – Landlord triggers the review (3 years) – Often internal repairing and insuring
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Appendix 1.3
69% 20% 7% 4% Core Rent Roll Tenant £40.3m GPs – Reimbursed by NHS £27.7m NHS Body £8.1m Pharmacy £3.0m Other (Retail, Charities, Local Authorities, Dentists) £1.5m
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Appendix 1.4
Source: BIS Resource Cost Index of House Building and Savills Development Land Index (Urban) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Construction and land indices
BIS House Building Resource Cost Index Savills Development Land Index (Urban) Blended 80:20
‐1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Construction/land index + 30 months v OMR reviews
Assura OMR (medical space) Index: 3 years (annual basis)
Index is 3 year trailing average movement on an annual basis of the contribution and land index blended 80:20. This has been shifted forward by 30 months for comparison purposes.
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Appendix 1.5
2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% ASSURA ‐ CORE ‐ Equivalent Yield Shopping Centres Foodstores West End Offices Provincial Offices
Prime equivalent yields since Mar‐11
Mar‐11 Mar‐12 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Source: Savills
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Appendix 1.6
6.1 6.8 1.0 ‐1.3
7.2 5.4
‐4.0 ‐2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Assura All Healthcare Property Benchmark
%
Income Return Capital Growth Total Return
Source: IPD
IPD Return to December 2013 since inception of index in 2006
– £668m total property assets – 14.4 years weighted average unexpired lease term
relationships with GP community
strong pipeline
focused team
Investing in the future of primary care property 41 IPD Annual Return to December 2013 since inception of index in 2006
Source: IPD
Appendix 1.7
6.1% 1.0% 7.2% 6.2% 0.4% 6.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Income Return Capital Growth Total Return Assura Primary Healthcare Benchmark
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Adjusted basic) & diluted NAV) per ordinary) share) Adjusted basic) & diluted NAV) per ordinary) share) Mar 14) Mar 13) £m) £m)
Net assets
226.6) 198.1)
Own shares held
1.9) 1.9)
Derivative financial instruments
1.8) 3.6)
Derivative financial instruments of associates
‐) 1.9)
Deferred tax
(0.7) (1.1)
Adjusted (EPRA) NAV
229.6) 204.4)
Number of shares in issue
529,548,924) 529,548,924)
Adjusted net asset value per share
43.4p 38.6p)
Appendix 2.1
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* Based on 529,548,924 shares in issue
£m)
Pence per) share*)
Adjusted net asset value at 31 March 2013 204.4) 38.6) Income (underlying profit) 10.9) 2.1) Capital (revaluations and capital gains) 12.6) 2.4) Dividends (7.2) (1.4) LIFT disposal 10.5) 2.0) Other (1.6) (0.3) Adjusted net asset value at 31 March 2014 229.6) 43.4) Growth 4.8) 12.4%
Appendix 2.2
Mar 14 Mar 13 £m £m Core 626.8 523.6 Non‐core 4.8 9.3 Investment portfolio 631.6 532.9 Investment property under construction 14.8 14.3 Properties held for sale 11.6 12.0 Pharmacy lease premiums 7.2 7.0 Finance leases 3.1 3.1 Total 668.3 569.3 Balance sheet classification Investment property 656.7 557.3 Property assets held for sale 11.6 12.0 Total 668.3 569.3
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Appendix 3.1
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Appendix 3.2
Capital Number of Total Capital Value Properties £626.8m <£1m 37 £25.1m £1‐5m 139 £350.4m £5‐10m 19 £139.4m >£10m 7 £111.9m
4% 56% 22% 18%
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NIY ERV +1% +2% +3% p/share p/share p/share p/share 6.50%
6.25%
6.00%
1.11p 5.75% 2.68p 3.89p 5.10p 6.31p 5.50% 8.18p 9.45p 10.71p 11.98p
Appendix 3.3
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Appendix 3.4
50 leases 50 leases 86 leases 113 leases 73 leases 9 leases 17 leases 30 leases
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 21+ 18‐20 15‐17 12‐14 9‐11 6‐8 3‐5 0‐2 Rental Value £m Years Remaining
Average income weighted unexpired lease term 14.7 years
(March 2013: £20.5m)
£6.8m, net initial yield of 16.4%
income earning assets
valuation decline from short leases
Scarborough valued at £5.5m
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Appendix 3.5
Non core £14.9m Non core £4.8m Held for sale £11.4m (£9.9m) (£1.9m) (£1.0m) £0.6m £2.3m Held for sale £11.6m ‐ 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
£m
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Completed On site Immediate pipeline Number of schemes 8 5 5 Development cost £22.8m £21.5m £17.0m ERV £1.5m £1.5m £1.2m Completion timing 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Appendix 3.6
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Appendix 4.1
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Gross rental and related income £m
H2 Mar H1 Sept
£15.8m £19.3m £19.5m £28.8m £32.5m £34.1m £40.3m £2.1m £1.8m £2.2m £1.6m £1.5m £1.8m £1.3m
£m £5m £10m £15m £20m £25m £30m £35m £40m £45m Mar‐08 Mar‐09 Mar‐10 Mar‐11 Mar‐12 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Core Portfolio Rent Roll
Estimated rental value less passing rent Passing Rent
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Appendix 4.2
£1.3m ERV
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Appendix 4.3 Weighted average annualised increase Year ended 31 March 2014 Year ended 31 March 2013 Whole portfolio OMR 0.35% 2.02% RPI / Fixed 4.52% 3.23% Total 1.89% 2.42% Core portfolio OMR 0.35% 2.03% RPI / Fixed 2.07% 3.17% Total 0.83% 2.32%
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Annualised increase Year ended 31 March 2014 Year ended 31 March 2013 Rent reviews settled 0.83% 2.32% Rent reviews settled excluding RPI/fixed uplift 0.35% 2.03% Appendix 4.4
43 reviews 50 reviews 62 reviews 56 reviews 33 reviews 2 reviews £4.1m £6.4m £8.2m £6.4m £4.6m £0.2m
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rent £m Previous Rent Rental Increase Weighted Increase
– 0.35% from open market rent reviews
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Annualised Open market reviews only % on Core Number of outstanding reviews on Core (passing rent) Rent reviews settled in year to 31 March 2014 0.35% Relating to review dates from calendar years: 2009 1 (£0.1m) 2010 (2 reviews) 0.98% 1 (£0.1m) 2011 (3 reviews) 1.10% 8 (£0.9m) 2012 (16 reviews) 0.77% 18 (£1.8m) 2013 (64 reviews) 0.05% 37 (£3.6m) 2014 (11 reviews) 0.32% 105 (£11.9m) Appendix 4.5
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Appendix 4.6
£32.0m £4.5m £2.8m £1.0m 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% OMR RPI Fixed Other % Core Portfolio by rental value
Upward/Downward Review Basis ‐ Tenant Can Instigate 6% (£2.3m) Upward/Downward Review Basis ‐ Landlord Only Trigger 21% (£8.6m) Upward Only Review Basis 73% (£29.4m)
Distributions (PIDs) ― 90% of taxable property rental profits ― subject to 20% withholding tax (unless investor is a qualifying institution)
investment activity
years of practical completion
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Appendix 5.1
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Loan/Bond Fixed/ Floating Maturity Effective Interest Rate Secured Properties Rental Income Outstanding) 31 March) £m £m £m) 10 year secured Bond Fixed 10 year, bullet repayment 2021 4.75%1 161.6 11.3 110.0) Aviva amortising secured loans Fixed Amortising to 2041 5.65%1 374.8 24.1 284.5) £57.4m Santander investment facility Floating Amortising from 2014, repayable 2016 4.53%1 89.9 5.8 57.4) £2.6m Santander development facility Floating Development phase
3.75%2 ‐ ‐ ‐) Principal 626.3 41.2 451.9) Fair value adjustment for Trinity debt 1.6) FRS 4 adjustment (3.2) Book value 450.3)
1 2.575% interest rate swap of matching amount plus 195 bps 2 2.75% above LIBOR
Appendix 6.1
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All covenant conditions complied with Bond Aviva Santander Investment Facility Required Actual Required Actual Required Actual Interest v income cover 1, 2 > 1.50 2.08 ≥ 1.03 1.23 ≥ 1.70 2.29 Loan to Value > 1.35 1.46 n/a n/a < 75% LTV 64% LTV Debt Service Coverage Ratio n/a n/a n/a n/a > 1.05 2.29
1 Some Aviva loans require only 0.9 times 2 All individually comply
In addition, bond requires NHS backed income to exceed 75% (31 March 2014: 78%) and the weighted average lease length must exceed 10 years (31 March 2014: 13.4 years) Appendix 6.2
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2014/15 Ex‐Div Date Record Date Payment Date Non‐PID PID Total Q4 8 Apr 20151 10 Apr 20151 22 Apr 20151 0.45p2 ‐2 0.45p2 Q3 7 Jan 20151 9 Jan 20151 21 Jan 20151 0.45p2 ‐2 0.45p2 Q2 8 Oct 20141 10 Oct 20141 22 Oct 20141 0.45p2 ‐2 0.45p2 Q1 9 Jul 20141 11 Jul 20141 23 Jul 20141 0.45p2 ‐2 0.45p2 2013/14 Ex‐Div Date Record Date Payment Date Non‐PID PID Total Q4 9 Apr 2014 11 Apr 2014 23 Apr 2014 0.45p ‐ 0.45p Q3 8 Jan 2014 10 Jan 2014 22 Jan 2014 0.45p ‐ 0.45p Q2 9 Oct 2013 11 Oct 2013 23 Oct 2013 0.3025p ‐ 0.3025p Q1 10 Jul 2013 12 Jul 2013 24 Jul 2013 0.3025p ‐ 0.3025p
1 Provisional date
Appendix 7.1
2 Provisional amount
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This presentation contains certain statements that are neither financial results nor other historical information. These statements are forward‐looking in nature and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual future results may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these statements. Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond Assura’s ability to control
participants, the actions of governmental regulators and other risk factors such as the Company’s ability to continue to obtain financing to meet its liquidity needs, changes in the political, social and regulatory framework in which the Company operates or in economic or technological trends
basis. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward‐looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document. Assura does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any revision to these forward‐looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of these materials. Information contained in this presentation relating to the company
performance.