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B Y F A W A D K H A N , I S E T 2 5 , M A Y 2 0 1 2
OVERVIEW OF FLOOD SCOPING STUDY
- Results from the desk research
- Field study sites
- Methodology
- Emerging Findings
RESEARCH B Y F A W A D K H A N , I S E T 2 5 , M A Y 2 0 1 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
RESEARCH B Y F A W A D K H A N , I S E T 2 5 , M A Y 2 0 1 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
INDUS FLOODS SCOPING RESEARCH B Y F A W A D K H A N , I S E T 2 5 , M A Y 2 0 1 2 OVERVIEW OF FLOOD SCOPING STUDY Results from the desk research Field study sites Methodology Emerging Findings 2010 FLOOD RIVER FLOWS (NORTH
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2010 FLOOD RIVER FLOWS (NORTH TO SOUTH)
Tarbela Kalabagh Chashma Taunsa Guddu Sukkur Kotri Designed capacity 1,500,000 950,000 950,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,500,000 875,000 Flood Record 510,000 950,000 786,600 788,646 1,199,672 1,166,574 981,000 Flood 2010 833,000 937,453 1,036,673 959,991 1,148,738 1,131,000 964,900
- 200,000
400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 Cusecs
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VULNERABILITY IN THE SYSTEM
- Similar flows in 70’s floods
- 5 million people affected vs 20 million
- Population in 1976 = 73 mill. Vs 175 mill. In 2010
- What is the reason?
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INTENSIVE RIVER MANAGEMENT
- Annual flow deviation
reduced
- Inability to control
development in riverbed/flood zone
- North-South water
flows
- Changing weather
patterns
- No space for lateral
flows (2011 floods)
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CLOSED VS. OPEN BASIN
Hydraulic Infrastructure
- Hardware
– Dams – Embankments
- Low intensity high
frequency events reduced
– Autonomous adaptation ineffective – People living in flood plains
- Low Frequency High
Intensity events increased
– People under false security
Open Basin Management
- Low intensity high frequency
events increase
– Autonomous response – Technical support
- Cost-benefit show similar
returns as embankments
- How to identify and deliver
adaptive capacities
– Identify vulnerability – Build resilience through gateway systems
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RESULTS FROM DESK RESEARCH
- Flood was not unprecedented but damages
were
- Infrastructure and settlement patterns
- Indus infrastructure not suited for lateral flows
- Global examples from US, Thailand, India
- Rebuilding risk
- Open basin management
- Social protection important for CC resilience
- DRM institutions in disarray
- How do we adapt and help build resilience of
exposed communities?
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ADAPTATION
- Planned
- Path dependence
- Autonomous
adaptation
- Widespread
- Works within weak
institutions
- How can we
support it?
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IDENTIFY FACTORS BUILDING RESILIENCE
- Hypothesis: Availability, access and reducing
fragility of systems and services builds resilience in communities
- Use service availability as an indicator (census)
- Identify socially vulnerable areas/populations
- In post disaster situation identify vulnerable and
resilient through recovery status (SLD/survey)
- Document service availability differential between
resilient and vulnerable
- Identify critical services that build resilience
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RESEARCH AREAS
Chitral (mountainous) Charsadda (piedmont) Dadu (plane) Mithi (desert/coast)
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PRELIMINARY RESULTS
- Availability of credit and saving services are critical
to recovery in Mithi
- Land title is critical for recovery in Dadu
- Number of years that electricity was available is
important in Chitral
- Sanitation is a critical differentiating factor in Dadu
and Charsadda
- Education and social capital is important across the
board
- Development inerventions can be prioritized to
build resilience
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