Representation of heterogeneity and consumer behavior in the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
representation of heterogeneity and consumer behavior in
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Representation of heterogeneity and consumer behavior in the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 23, 2023 120 likes •356 views

Representation of heterogeneity and consumer behavior in the transport sector Stylized or Explicit? O. Y. Edelenbosch, D. McCollum 21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop Non cost barriers in consumer choice Adoption of new vehicle

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Representation of heterogeneity and consumer behavior in the transport sector

Stylized or Explicit?

  • O. Y. Edelenbosch, D. McCollum
slide-2
SLIDE 2

Non cost barriers in consumer choice

  • Adoption of new vehicle technologies rely on consumer

purchases

  • Energy efficiency research shows that consumers do not

purchase energy-efficient technologies based solely on a cost-effectiveness criterion (Mundaca et al. 2010)

  • And that choices are heterogeneous as considerations are

different for consumers  Non Cost Barriers for different types of consumers are captured in the MA3T disutility dataset

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Key question

  • Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) represent

investment decisions in technology as done by a homogeneous and ‘unboundedly rational’ end user

  • How to represent in our models influences on vehicle

choices beyond costs and prices.

  • Can we use a simple model to represent this complex

issue? (given scope of IAMs, data quality)

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Outline Research

  • 1. Implement non monetary factors (disutility costs)

disaggregated over consumer 27 groups implemented in IMAGE Does adding the consumer groups lead to more heterogeneity?

  • 2. Parameterize the multinomial equation in IMAGE

vehicle choice model Can this heterogeneity be approximated or parameterized in a simpler, more stylized way?

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

slide-5
SLIDE 5

IMAGE transport

Focus Research:

  • Vehicle choice in passenger road transport (cars)

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

  • Transport activity is related to population, income, mode costs, speed
  • Techno-economic parameter for each technology are exogenously

assumed.

  • Technologies compete with each other based cost per passenger km
  • Technologies modelled are ICE, HEV, PHEV, Fuel Cell, EV
slide-6
SLIDE 6

Vehicle choice model

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

Add Disutility cost

 = high  full optimisation  = 0  indifferent  = low  heterogeneity

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.0 2.0 3.0 Cost ratio Market share

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Scenario results US - baseline

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

Without disutility cost With disutility cost No electric vehicle adoption

27 consumers

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Scenario results US - mitigation

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

Without disutility cost With disutility cost Slower phase out of oil More cars on biofuel More heterogeneity

27 consumers

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Parameterizing the MNL

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

1 group 𝜇 = 100 27 groups

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Parameterizing the MNL

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

1 group 𝜇 = 50 27 groups

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Parameterizing the MNL

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

1 group 𝜇 = 10 27 groups Decreasing 𝜇 leads to more heterogeneity in choices but does not reflect the spread in attitude towards a technology

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Vehicle choice model in IMAGE

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Differentiating in the 27 groups

1 group Resembles 27 groups better than original

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Conclusions and ways forward:

  • Logit parameterization can reflect explicit representation
  • f heterogeneity.

Results improve when 𝜇 is technology specific

  • Current disutility cost are static which is a barrier for

vehicle transition  Endogenise disutility cost assumptions on refuelling stations, model availability

  • Subsidies for early adopters

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Thanks for your attention. Questions?

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

slide-16
SLIDE 16

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Cost per pkm driven (USD ¢ / pkm) Non cost barrier Fuel cost Vehicle cost

MA3T Model disutility costs

  • Limited EV Range “anxiety”
  • Refueling Station Availability
  • Model Availability
  • New Technology Risk Premium

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) Electric Vehicle (EV) Early technology adopter Late technology adopter

Lin, 2009. Oakland Ridge National Laboratory

So, this data set only includes additional barriers for electric vehicles

slide-17
SLIDE 17

27 Consumer groups

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop Frequent Driver Average Driver Modest Driver

Light-Duty Vehicle Consumers/Drivers

Early Adopter Early Majority Late Majority

Urban Suburban Rural Urban Suburban Rural Urban Suburban Rural

… … … … … … … … <= structure repeated => Attitude toward technology/risk Settlement Type Driving Intensity

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Differentiating in the 27 groups

1 group

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Differentiating in the 27 groups

1 group

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Differentiating in the 27 groups

1 group

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Differentiating in the 27 groups

1 group

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Differentiating in the 27 groups

1 group Does not resembles 27 groups better than original

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Comparison model results

21-04-2015| Oreane Y. Edelenbosch - BE4 Workshop

Mitigation No disutillity cost Mitigation Disutillity cost

Electric car deployment 2020-2045 2040-2050 Phase out of fossil ICE 30 – 40 yr 60 – 80 yr Max % ICE Bio deployment 0 - 8.5 % 57 – 81 % Cumulative CO2 emissions (1990-2100) 14 - 15 GtC 17 - 21 GtC