Regional ReAnalyses Overview, background and needs Differerent - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Regional ReAnalyses Overview, background and needs Differerent - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 14, 2023 277 likes •581 views

Regional ReAnalyses Overview, background and needs Differerent types of reanalyses Multi models Ensembles Uncertainties estimated and real ? Use of reanalyses and uncertainties User interaction Copernicus Climate Change Services

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Regional ReAnalyses Overview, background and needs Differerent types of reanalyses Multi models – Ensembles Uncertainties – estimated and real ? Use of reanalyses and uncertainties User interaction

Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S)

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All observations 1961-2015 (c.o. Klaus Zimmerman)

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  • L. Bach

FE12 Seminar, 12.08.2015 4

Gridding of observations

Statistical interpolation of observations only 2 m temperature and precipitation and more CRU data sets global ~ 50 km 1901 - E-OBS data sets Europe land ~25 km 1955 - GPCC global precipitation ~ 50 km 110 years Several regional-national data sets Alpine gridded data set precipitation 5 km Nordic gridded data set 1 km 1981- UK, KNMI, SMHI, MF, DWD ……..

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Infilling >1950 and <1950

complemented by French and Swedish 60's data And Norwegian,Swedish and Catalonian data

−10 10 20 30 40 20 30 40 50

Post−1950 data

  • Obs. per day

1 2 3 4 ³5 Length (years) <10 10−19 20−29 30−39 40−49 ³50

SD/FS/RR TT RH DP WS/WD SLP

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Data assimilation

  • f Observations
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MET Office hybrid 4D-VAR/3D-VAR ensembles

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  • L. Bach

FE12 Seminar, 12.08.2015 8

Background

From FGGE first GARP global experiment Additional radiosondes and drifting buoys – 1978/79 level IIIb ”reanalysis” Bengtsson and Shukla (1988) Observing system performance, predictability, general circulation, low frequency variability ERA-15 global reanalysis to cover this

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  • L. Bach

FE12 Seminar, 12.08.2015 9

Global reanalyses – ERA-15 – Observing systems developments ERA-40, Interim, ERA-20C. and ERA-5 Copernicus Helsinki WMO conference – need for regional reanalyses North American efforts NCEP Climate reanalysis NCEP 20CR NASA MERRA-2 NCEP RRA ASR 2000-10 EU Commission and SPACE programme DAMOCLES Arctic ocean and ”lightly” coupled atmosphere EURO4M UERRA Japanese JRA-55 COSMO RRA 6 km (1995-2015) MÉRA 2.5 km (1981-2015 ) CMA India Australia Spain, Italy, Netherlands and more

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Met Éireann

MÉRA: ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP System

  • AHNS used by 26 NHMS Europe & North Africa
  • Used operationally by Met Éireann since 2011
  • HARMONIE-AROME configuration (cycle 38h1.2)

– 2.5km horizontal grid-spacing – 65 levels with highest level at 10hPa – ALADIN non-hydrostatic dynamics – MESO-NH mesoscale physics – SURFEX surface model – 3D-Var upper-air data assimilation – OI surface data assimilation

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Met Éireann

Forecast performance

PMSL Temperature Corrected Temperature Wind

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EU Regulation (911/2010) specifies that “access to information for climate change monitoring in support of mitigation and adaptation policies” shall be included in the GMES service component.

A Climate Change service must meet the Global Climate Observing System goals:

  • Monitor the climate system
  • Detect and attribute climate change
  • Assess impacts of, and support adaptation to, climate

variability & change

from Strahlendorff (2012) from Strahlendorff (2012)

Climate change service

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  • consultation process: expert group (2010-2011),

‘Helsinki GMES climate’ conference (Jul 2011), GMES user forum (Nov 2011).

  • 6th FP7 space call (closed since 21 Nov. 2012)

re-analysis (global and EU regional) quality assurance for ECVs climate indicator toolbox Attribution products data access EC funding: 26 M€

Climate change service

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  • L. Bach

FE12 Seminar, 12.08.2015 14

One of 5 pre-operational Copernicus Projects

ERA-CLIM2

European Reanalysis of the Global Climate System

UERRA

Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional ReAnalyses

QA4ECV

Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables

CLIPC

A Climate Information Portal for Copernicus

EUCLEIA

European Climate and weather events: interpretation and attribution

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Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe

Climate Change

UERRA and C3S 322 Lot1 (PRECISE) For the Arctjc: C3S 322 Lot2 (CARRA)

UERRA : Grant Agreement 607193 EU FP7 SPACE 2013- 1

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1 6 Data available at: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/UER

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  • Forecasts

– 30 hour forecasts at 00 and 12 – 1 hour resolution up to 6 hours, 3 hour resolution up to 30 hours

  • Run at ECMWF

– Several streams (5-10 years) with 4 months overlap – ~180 milj. SBUs – ~1200 Tb data of which ~350 Tb is stored in MARS

  • 5 years with HARMONIE-ALARO

– 2006-2010 – Preparation for the longer re-analysis – Mini ensemble for uncertainty estimates

HARMONIE (HIRLAM ALADIN Regional/Mesoscale Operational NWP In Europe)

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Verification of T2m, winter

1962 1972 1982 1992 2012 2002 Red: UERRA Green: ERA

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MESAN downscaling surface/2D analyses

MESAN

– Swedish surface analysis system combined and run at 11 km – First guess from forecast model and special first guess for precipitation – Non-isotropic structure functions

SMHI HIRLAM 11 km AROME HARMONIE 2.5

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MESCAN downscaling ensemble analyses

MESAN – CANARI

– Swedish and French/ALADIN surface analysis system combined and run at 5.5 km

SMHI HARMONIE ALADIN @ 11 km

– ALADIN physics -> – ALARO physics ->

  • Interpolate first guess 6 hour forecast
  • Interpolate analysis → run ALADIN 5.5 km

forecast

– SURFEX soil scheme – ISBA soil scheme » Perturb observations » Reduced network

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Curtesy Francesco Isotta (Meteo-Swiss)

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Spread of 2m temperature for March 1979 from the Met Office system Ensemble 4D-VAR reanalysis

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Rank (Talagrand) Histogram DWD MET Office CERA-20C

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Ensemble spread

From Besselaar and van den Schrier (2017) Actually pretty good! No overlap in spread

  • Bias too large…?
  • …spread too small?
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  • L. Bach

FE12 Seminar, 12.08.2015 25

Lessons learned from the pre-

  • perational Copernicus projects

Need to make potential users aware or the possibilities of modern reanalysis data More work to assess and reduce long term Biases Need to develop data assimilation and model based reanalyis systems different from

  • perational systems (especially regional) since

they are of different resolutions and domains

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  • L. Bach

FE12 Seminar, 12.08.2015 26

Lessons learned from the pre-

  • perational Copernicus projects

Consistent and combined information (atmosphere, cryosphere, atmospheric chemistry) needed Need for improved satellite data Critical in-situ data need to be rescued, quality controlled and made available Intensify communication and engagement with society

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Final points

UERRA HARMONIE (SMHI) and MESCAN (MF) lead to C3S_322 lot 1 European Regional

  • perational Reanalysis

Also an Arctic Regional Reanalysis How to balance : – Resolution – domain (EU, region) – ensemble Uncertainties still considerable and difficult Need to improve on top of operational systems and input observations rescued and Qced!

www.uerra.eu