Regional Growth Strategy Regional Staff Committee September 20, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

September 20, 20, 20 2018

Regional Growth Strategy

Regional Staff Committee

Overview

2

• Regional Geographies
• Growth Scenarios
• Modeling/Screening Factors
• Jobs-Population Balance
• Transit-Oriented Development Goals
• Next Steps

Schedule + Process

3

September 6 Growth Management Policy Board

• Objectives, Geographies, Scenarios, TOD & jobs-housing balance

September 13 Land Use Technical Advisory Committee

• Technical review of inputs, assumptions, outputs

September 20/21 RSC, Co-Chairs Working Group

• Discuss Scenarios, TOD & jobs-housing balance

September 21 Regional TOD Advisory Committee

• Discuss TOD goal

(cont…)

Schedule + Process

4

October 4 Growth Management Policy Board

• Discuss TOD, county shares, scenario changes

October 18 RSC, Co-Chairs Working Group

• Discuss scenarios

November 1 Growth Management Policy Board

• Select alternatives for environmental review

2050 Forecast

5

1.8 million more people and 1.2 million more jobs by 2050

Regional Growth Strategy

6

• Aspirational, but achievable
• Growth focused in Urban Growth

Areas, cities, centers

• Move towards jobs/housing balance
• Preserves and supports rural and

resource lands

• Environmental, economic,

transportation benefits

• Numeric guidance for targets
• Land use & transportation

connection

VISION 2040 – Regional Geographies Map

Regional Growth Strategy Components

Regional Geographies. Groupings of places within the Regional Growth Strategy Growth Scenarios. Concepts for how growth should be assigned. Some scenarios may become SEPA alternatives. Screening Factors. Short list of measures to evaluate growth scenarios.

Regional Geographies

Regional Geographies

Pr Proposal:

• Reaffirm focus on jurisdictions with

designated regional centers

• Differentiate current Small and Larger

cities by existing and planned high- capacity transit

– Includes light rail, bus rapid transit, commuter rail, ferry & streetcar

• Identify unincorporated urban areas with

high-quality transit service

• Recognize Major Military Installations

9 9

Proposed Regional Geographies Map

Proposed Regional Geographies

10

Curren rrent Pr Proposed

Me Metr trop

• polita

tan Citi ties Me Metr trop

• polita

tan Citi ties Core re Cit ities ies Core re Cit ities ies Larg rger Cit ities ies High Ca Capacity Trans nsit Co Communi unities Sma mall ll C Cities Ci Cities and nd Towns ns Ur Urban n Uni Uninc ncorporated A Areas Ur Urba ban n Uni Uninc ncorporated A Areas Rura ral Rura ral Resourc rce e Resourc rce e Ma Major

• r Mi

Milita tary I Insta stallati tions

Growth Scenarios

Performance Overall

• Long r
• ng range

nge, bi big p g pictu cture – tren ends ds ar are e moving t towar wards ds Regi giona nal Gr l Grow

• wth

th S Str trategy

• Mor
• re gr

grow

• wth

th i in n ur urba ban a n areas, ci citi ties and nd ce cente nters

• Les

ess growth i h in rural al an and d res esource ar e areas eas

• Metr

tro ci citi ties s sti till ca ll catch tching up g up; uni unincor ncorpor

• rate

ted ur urba ban n conti continue ue to to gr grow

• w f

faste ter th than R n RGS GS

• Count
• unty-le

level jobs l jobs/hou

• using

ng ba bala lance nce be bette ter th than n anti nticipate ted; s sti till long ll long-te term ch challe llenge nge

12

Preliminary Growth Scenarios

13

• Stay the Course. Extends VISION 2040 growth

assumptions to 2050

• Forward from 2017. Applies VISION 2040 growth

assumptions to a 2017 base

• Dispersed Urban Growth. Distributes growth broadly

across urban growth area

• Transit Focused Growth. Distributes more growth

around high capacity transit

Population Change by Proposed Scenarios

Total Population Change: 1.8 million new people by 2050

VISION 2040 – Stay the Course

Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050

Geo Geography Amount nt of

• f

Regi giona nal G Grow

• wth

Sha hare re o

• f

f Regi giona nal G Grow

• wth

Metropolitan Cities 607,000 35% Core Cities 488,000 28% Transit Communities 307,000 17% Cities & Towns 174,000 10% Urban Unincorporated 85,000 5% Rural 95,000 5%

Population Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario: Forward from 2017

Geo Geography Sha hare re o

• f

f Regi giona nal G Grow

• wth

Diffe fere rence fro from Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 33%

• 24,000

Core Cities 27%

• 1

1,000 Transit Communities 17%

• 10,000

Cities & Towns 10% 9,000 Urban Unincorporated 6% 27,000 Rural 6% 9,000

Population Change: 2017 to 2050

Applies VISION 2040 growth shares from a 2017 base

Geo Geography Sha hare re o

• f

f Regi giona nal G Grow

• wth

Diffe fere rence fro from Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 38% 58,000 Core Cities 33% 85,000 Transit Communities 17%

• 3,000

Cities & Towns 6%

• 68,000

Urban Unincorporated 4%

• 13,000

Rural 2%

• 60,000

Population Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario: Transit Focused Growth

Distributes more growth around high capacity transit

Distributes growth broadly across urban growth area

Geo Geography Sha hare re o

• f

f Regi giona nal G Grow

• wth

Diffe fere rence fro from Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 15%

• 344,000

Core Cities 15%

• 225,000

Transit Communities 20% 44,000 Cities & Towns 25% 265,000 Urban Unincorporated 20% 266,000 Rural 5%

• 7,000

Population Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario: Dispersed Urban Growth

Employment Change by Proposed Scenario

Total Employment Change: 1.2 million new jobs by 2050

VISION 2040 – Stay the Course

Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050

Geo Geography Amount nt of

• f

Regi giona nal G Grow

• wth

Sha hare re o

• f

f Regi giona nal G Grow

• wth

Metropolitan Cities 509,000 44% Core Cities 4 13,000 36% Transit Communities 126,000 1 1% Cities & Towns 65,000 6% Urban Unincorporated 30,000 3% Rural 14,000 1%

Employment Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario: Forward from 2017

Geo Geography Sha hare re o

• f

f Regi giona nal G Grow

• wth

Diffe fere rence fro from Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 43%

• 12,000

Core Cities 35%

• 7,000

Transit Communities 1 1%

• 2,000

Cities & Towns 6% 5,000 Urban Unincorporated 3% 5,000 Rural 2% 1 1,000

Employment Change: 2017 to 2050

Applies VISION 2040 growth shares from a 2017 base

Distributes more growth around high capacity transit

Geo Geography Sha hare re o

• f

f Regi giona nal G Grow

• wth

Diffe fere rence fro from Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 44% 1,000 Core Cities 37% 18,000 Transit Communities 12% 1 1,000 Cities & Towns 4%

• 19,000

Urban Unincorporated 2%

• 7,000

Rural 1%

• 3,000

Employment Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario: Transit Focused Growth

Geo Geography Sha hare re o

• f

f Regi giona nal G Grow

• wth

Diffe fere rence fro from Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 23%

• 243,000

Core Cities 20%

• 181,000

Transit Communities 20% 106,000 Cities & Towns 20% 167,000 Urban Unincorporated 15% 144,000 Rural 2% 9,000

Employment Change: 2017 to 2050

Scenario: Dispersed Urban Growth

Distributes growth broadly across the urban growth area

Preliminary Round 1 Screening Factors

Short list of measures to evaluate VISION 2050 growth scenarios

• Mobility. Delay, transit ridership, mode share

Growth Near Transit. New people and jobs near transit Housing Choice. Growth at low, medium & high densities Access to Opportunity. Growth in moderate to high opportunity areas Jobs-Housing Balance. Ratio by county and subarea

• Environment. Greenhouse gas emissions [forthcoming]

Screening Factors

Stay the Course Forward from 2017 Dispersed Urban Growth Transit Focused Growth

SOV Mode Share – All Trips 35%

• +5%
• 5%

Delay per Person 47 +2% +12%

• 7%

Annual Transit Boardings 470,000,000 +4%

• 6%

+11% Delay per Truck 108 +1% +5%

• 4%

Mobility

PRELIMINARY Scenario Findings

PRELIMINARY Scenario Findings

Stay the Course Forward from 2017 Dispersed Urban Growth Transit Focused Growth

% Lower Density (single family) 36% + 2% + 19%

• 13%

% Medium (duplex, triplex, low-rise) 16%

• 1%

+ 1% % High Density (larger apt, condo bldgs) 47%

• 1%
• 18%

+ 12%

Stay the Course Forward from 2017 Dispersed Urban Growth Transit Focused Growth

% Share of Population Growth 44%

• 1%
• 22%

+ 34% % Share of Job Growth 60%

• 2%
• 20%

+ 21%

Housing Choice Growth Near Transit

PRELIMINARY Scenario Findings

Employment Stay the Course Forward from 2017 Dispersed Urban Growth Transit Focused Growth

% Very Low and Low Opportunity 47%

• 2%
• 9%
• 2%

% Moderate, High and Very High Opportunity 53% + 2% + 9% + 2%

Access to Opportunity - Employment

Population Stay the Course Forward from 2017 Dispersed Urban Growth Transit Focused Growth

% Very Low and Low Opportunity 48%

• 4%
• 10%
• 1%

% Moderate, High and Very High Opportunity 52% + 4% + 10% + 1%

Access to Opportunity - Population

PRELIMINARY Scenario Findings

Stay the Course Forward from 2017 Dispersed Urban Growth Transit Focused Growth

King County 1.26

• 6%
• 6%
• 6%

Sea-Shore 1.29

• 5%

5%

• 3%

South King County 1.12

• 7%
• 12%
• 8%

East King County 1.37

• 6%
• 11%
• 6%

Kitsap County 0.65 + 9% + 8% + 9% Pierce County 0.76

• 1%

+ 2% + 1% Snohomish County 0.77

• Jobs-Housing Balance

Population-Jobs Balance & Transit-Oriented Development

Population-Jobs Balance

31

To improve jobs-housing balance, VISION 2040:

• Increased share of residential growth planned for King County
• Increased share of employment growth planned for Kitsap, Pierce and

Snohomish counties

2000-40 V2040 2000-40 Emp RGS-Emp Emp % Shares Policy % Shares (SAF06) Adjustment (V2040 RGS) King County 62%

• 5%

57% Kitsap County 4% + 1% 5% Pierce County 15% + 2% 17% Snohomish County 18% + 2% 20% Region Total 100% 100% Poli licy A Adju justment -

• Em

Emplo loyment 2000-40 V2040 2000-40 Pop RGS-Pop Pop % Shares Policy % Shares (SAF06) Adjustment (V2040 RGS) King County 39% + 3% 42% Kitsap County 8% + 1% 9% Pierce County 25%

• 2%

23% Snohomish County 28%

• 2%

26% Region Total 100% 100% Policy A Adjus ustment nt -

• P

Popul ulation

32

2050 County Population

2050 C Count unty P Popul ulation A n Assum umptions ns -

• C

Comparison t n to R Referenc nce D Data P Point nts 2017- 2017-2050 2050 1990-2017 2000-2017 2010-2017 2000-2030 2000-2040 2000-2040 Po Pop Pop Pop Pop Pop Pop Pop % S Share res % Shares % Shares % Shares % Shares % Shares % Shares (OFM/ M/PSRC) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (OFM07) (SAF06) (V2040 RGS) King County 50% 50% 49% 53% 59% 40% 39% 42% Kitsap County 5% 5% 6% 4% 4% 6% 8% 9% Pierce County 21% 21% 21% 20% 17% 27% 25% 23% Snohomish County 24% 24% 25% 23% 20% 26% 28% 26% Region Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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2050 County Jobs

2050 C Count unty E Employment nt A Assum umptions ns -

• C

Comparison t n to R Referenc nce D Data P Point nts 2017- 2017-2050 2050 2000-2017 2010-2017 2000-2040 2000-2040 Emp mp Emp Emp Emp Emp % S Share res % Shares % Shares % Shares % Shares (PS PSRC) (Actual) (Actual) (SAF06) (V2040 RGS) King County 64% 64% 57% 73% 62% 57% Kitsap County 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% 5% Pierce County 15% 15% 17% 11% 15% 17% Snohomish County 17% 17% 22% 14% 18% 20% Region Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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Pop-Jobs Balance in Growth Scenarios

Discussion Questions:

• Should any adjustment to the population or employment

shares be considered for VISION 2050?

• If so, is a 5% adjustment (consistent with VISION 2040) a

reasonable policy objective? Would a more aggressive adjustment be doable?

• What other potential approaches to implementing a jobs-

housing balance adjustment might be considered?

TOD Geography

Includes:

• Regional Growth Centers
• ½ mile walkshed from Light Rail,

Commuter Rail, and Ferry

• ¼ mile walkshed from Bus Rapid

Transit

• 1

15 sq mi, 73,000 acres

• Basis for developing new regional

geographies, which also factor in

• ther policy goals

Growth Near Transit

36

Existing Conditions – Base Year 2017 Change from 2017-2050 Stay the Course Forward from 2017 Dispersed Urban Growth Transit Focused Growth Share of Regional Population 19% % Share of Population Growth 44% 42% 22% 77% Population Estimate 777,000 Amount of Population Growth 765,000 739,000 387,000 1,360,000 Share of Regional Employment 47% % Share of Job Growth 60% 59% 41% 81% Job Estimate 1,053,000 Amount of Job Growth 698,000 680,000 471,000 942,000

Growth Near Transit

Growing Transit Communities: 25% of housing and 35% of employment growth in light rail corridors

Growth Near Transit

37

GMPB expressed interest in an ambitious goal for the Transit Focused Growth scenario. What information or set of assumptions should inform a regional goal for growth near transit station areas?

Next Steps

• Continue discussion & development of growth scenarios
• Additional modeling
• October GMPB and Regional Staff Committee
• Additional direction from GMPB and review scenarios
• November GMPB – finalize alternatives for environmental

review

38

Thank you

39 Li Liz U Underwo wood

• d-Bult

ultmann, nn, A AICP Principal Planner LUnderwood-Bultmann@psrc.org Paul In Inghram, A AICP ICP Director of Growth Management PInghram@psrc.org