Recent Economic Developments August 2012 Published by Investors - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Recent Economic Developments August 2012 Published by Investors Relations Unit Republic of Indonesia Contact: Bimo Epyanto (International Department - Bank Indonesia, Phone: +6221 381 8316) Siska Indirawati (Fiscal
Published by Investors Relations Unit – Republic of Indonesia Contact: Bimo Epyanto (International Department - Bank Indonesia, Phone: +6221 381 8316) Siska Indirawati (Fiscal Policy Office – Ministry of Finance, Phone: +6221 351 0580) Singgih Gunarsa (Debt Management Office - Ministry of Finance, Phone: +6221 381 0115) E-mail: contactIRU-DL@bi.go.id
5
Billion USD
* Bank Indonesia projection
Source: Bank Indonesia
4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 2010 2011 2012 foreign exchange reserves (LHS) month of import & government debt service (RHS)
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 2009 2010 2011 2012 %
CPI (%, yoy) Core (%, yoy) Volatile Food (%, yoy) Administered (%, yoy)
5.7% 5.5% 6.3% 6.0% 4.6% 6.1% 6.5% 6.3% 6.4% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
30 60 90 120 150
5 10 15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2** 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012 Cap & Fin. Account
Overall Balance Reserves Assets (RHS) billion USD billion USD
6
Indonesia’s economy charted 6.4% growth, driven primarily by buoyant consumption and investment that spurred strong imports growth. Nonetheless, the deterioration in the global economy and declining global commodity prices caused exports growth slid further. On the production side, economic growth was sustained by three main sectors – (i) manufacturing sector, (ii) trade, hotel, and restaurant sector, and (iii) transportation and communication sector. Indonesia’s economic growth is expected to arrive at 6.1 – 6.5% for the whole year of 2012 and pick up to 6.3 – 6.7% in 2013, supported by underlying strength of private consumption and investment.
first semester of 2012 was Rp148.1 trillion consisted of Rp40.5 trillion of Domestic Direct Investment and Rp107.6 trillion of FDI.
resulted from widened current account deficit due to robust domestic demand amidst global economic slowdown. An increased surplus in the capital and financial account was inadequate to compensate the current account deficit. Consequently, the international reserves declined to US$106.5 billion at end-June 2012, equivalent for 5.7 months of imports and official external debt service payments.
inflation in July 2012 was recorded at 0.70% (mtm) or 4.56% (yoy) while core inflation remained relatively low 4.28% (yoy) despite the seasonal factor and shock in food prices. Meanwhile, administered prices inflation was relatively benign because the absence of government policy on the prices of strategic commodities. Going forward, inflation is expected to remain contained and stay within its target range of 4.5% ± 1% in 2012 and 2013.
aiming on continue declining in debt-to-GDP ratio, diversifying government debt profile, and reducing funding reliance on international capital market.
maintained, as indicated by the Financial Stability Index, which were below the treshold of 2 (1.64 on July 2012). Banking industry resiliency indicated by secure level of CAR above the minimum level of 8% (17.5% at the end of June 2012) and gross NPLs managed at comfortably safe level below 5% (2.18% at the end of June 2012).
policy rate is considered consistent with inflation forecast, which is expected to remain low and contained within its target range of 4.5%±1% in 2012 and 2013. On the external side, Bank Indonesia remains vigilant on the rising current account deficit caused by weaker exports performance as the global economy slowed, amid strong imports in line with robust domestic demand. In that regard, Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen its policy measures to encourage orderly adjustment in the external balance so that current account deficit will return to its sustainable level. Bank Indonesia will maintain Rupiah stability, consistent with the fundamental condition, to support orderly adjustment in the external balance. In addition, Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen coordination with the Government in managing domestic demand so that it remains supportive to an effort to maintain macroeconomic stability and sustainable economic growth. With those policy measures, pressure on Balance of Payment is expected to ease in the second half of 2012.
8
S&P (April 23, 2012): affirmed Indonesia’s sovereign credit rating, at BB+ level for long-term and B level for short-term with positive outlook. S&P stated that the rating on Indonesia balances institutional and economic constraints with a moderately strong fiscal, external, and monetary profile. The positive outlook signals the potential for an upgrade if the country's growth prospects improve further and financial markets deepen with steadier policy implementation. Moody’s Investors Service (January 18, 2012): upgraded Republic of Indonesia’s foreign and local-currency bond ratings to Baa3 with stable outlook. Moody's stated the key factors supporting this action were (1) Moody’s anticipation that government financial metrics will remain in line with Baa peers (2) The demonstrated resilience of Indonesia’s economic growth to large external shocks (3) The presence of policy buffers and tools that address financial vulnerabilities and (4) A healthier banking system capable of withstanding stress. Fitch Ratings (December 15, 2011): upgraded Indonesia's sovereign credit rating, to BBB- level for foreign currency long-term senior debt, with stable outlook. The rationale behind the upgrade is Improved economic performance, strengthened external liquidity, low and declining public debt ratios, and a prudent overall macro policy framework. Rapid progress in tackling structural weaknesses combined with sustained economic growth in line with or better than Fitch’s projections without a build-up of external imbalances or a severe inflation shock would enhance Indonesia’s economic and sovereign credit fundamentals and exert upward pressure on the rating. Rating and Investment Information, Inc (November 14, 2011): affirmed Indonesia's sovereign credit rating, at the BB+ level for foreign currency sovereign ratings, with positive outlook. R&I stated that rationale behind the affirmation is Indonesian economy has become more resilient to deterioration in the external environment. The rating could be upgraded if R&I ascertain that Indonesia will be able to maintain the stability of the macro economy, which positively evaluates, even in the face of the global economic and financial instability. Japan Credit Rating Agency, Ltd (August 24, 2011): affirmed Indonesia’s foreign currency long-term senior debt at BBB- and local currency long term senior debt BBB with stable outlook. JCR stated that this ratings affirmation reflects the country’s sustainable economic growth outlook underpinned by solid domestic demand, alleviated public debt burden brought by prudent fiscal management, and reinforced resilience to external shocks stemming from accumulated foreign exchange reserves and an improved external debt management capacity.
Moody’s – 17 January 2011 “Indonesia’s cyclical resilience to large external shocks points to sustainably high trend growth over the medium term. A more favorable assessment of Indonesia’s economic strength is underpinned by gains in investment spending, improved prospects for infrastructure development following key policy reforms, and a well‐managed financial system.“
S&P – 23 Apr 2012 “The rating on Indonesia balances institutional and economic constraints with a moderately strong fiscal, external, and monetary profile. The positive outlook signals the potential for an upgrade if the country's growth prospects improve further and financial markets deepen with steadier policy implementation.” Fitch – 15 December 2011 “The rationale behind the upgrade is Improved economic performance, strengthened external liquidity, low and declining public debt ratios, and a prudent overall macro policy framework. Rapid progress in tackling structural weaknesses combined with sustained economic growth in line with or better than Fitch’s projections without a build-up of external imbalances or a severe inflation shock would enhance Indonesia’s economic and sovereign credit fundamentals and exert upward pressure on the rating.”
Baa3/ Stable BB+ / Positive BBB- / Stable
9
10
The IMD Competitive Center (May 2012): reported that Indonesia ranks 42 from 59 major nations surveyed worldwide. With this achievement, Indonesia is now above Philippines, Peru, Brazil, Russia and South Africa. The Asean Business Advisory Council (April 2012): reported that Indonesia is the top investment destination among the 10- member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The Asean BAC survey measured Asean countries’ investment attractiveness on a scale of zero to 10. Indonesia received the highest rating at 6.89, followed by Vietnam (6.29), Singapore (6.07), Thailand (6.04) and Malaysia (5.69). OECD (March 30, 2012): Indonesia’s Credit Risk Classification (CRC) upgraded to category 3. In level 3 of CRC, Indonesia is now within the same group with countries such as Thailand, Uruguay, South Africa, Russian Federation, India, Brazil and Peru. Previously, Indonesia was at level 4 since April 2010, together with, among others, Turkey, Philippines, Romania and Colombia. Heritage Foundation – Economic Freedom Index (January 2012): reported that Indonesia’s economic freedom score is 56.4, making its economy the 115th freest in the 2012 Index (184 countries surveyed). Its score is 0.4 point better than last year, with improvements in half of the 10 economic freedoms including monetary freedom and the control of government spending. Cato Institute – Economic Freedom of the World (December 2011): reported that Indonesia gain 3 places into 75th (2009) from 140 countries surveyed. Transparency International – Corruption Perception Index 2011 (December 2011): reported that Indonesia posts an impressive gain of 10 places into 100th (2011) from 183 countries surveyed. World Economic Forum – The Global Competitiveness Report 2011 – 2012 (September 2011): reported that Indonesia ranks 46th and remains one of the best performing countries within the developing Asia region, behind Malaysia and China yet ahead
express carriers), providing feedback on the logistics “friendliness” of the countries in which they operate and those with which they trade.
Indonesia logistic performance is better than many other income group peer countries (lower middle income economy). From 155 countries surveyed, Indonesia is in rank 59, much better than previous rank in 2010 (75).
Source: World Bank 11
12
13
Realized foreign direct investment (USD billion) Realized domestic direct investment (IDR trillion) The investment realization on Quarter 2 (April - June) of 2012 is Rp 76.9 trillion consisted of Rp 20.8 trillion of Domestic Direct Investment (PMDN) and Rp 56.1 trillion of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). It increases 24% compared to the same period in 2011. While the cumulative investment realization in Semester I (January-June) 2012 is Rp 148.1 trillion consist of Rp 40.5 trillion from domestic direct investment (DDI) and Rp 107.6 trillion from Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Compared to the same period in 2011, it increases 28.1%. The Distribution of project location in Quarter II of 2012 outside of Java is Rp 34.7 trillion (45.1%). Compared to the same period in 2011, the realized investment in outside Java increases 4.8%. Whereas the distribution in Semester I of 2012 outside of Java is Rp 68.3 trillion (46.1%) or increases 20.5% compared to the same period in 2011 (Rp 56.7 trillion). 14
Source: BKPM
6.0 10.3 14.9 10.8 16.2 19.5 12.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1st Semester 2012 20.8 34.9 20.4 37.8 60.6 76.0 40.5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1st Semester 2012
Source: BKPM
15
FDI – By Sector (USD billion)
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1st Semester 2012 2.2 3.6 2.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.0 0.6 3.3 8.5 4.1 5.1 3.9 1.1 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 6.5 7.7 5.4
Mining Food crops and plantation Chemical and pharmaceutical industry Metal machinery and electronic industry Transportation, storage and telecommunications Others
17
In the Q2-2012, Indonesia’s economy charted 6.4% growth, driven primarily by buoyant consumption and investment that spurred strong imports growth. Nonetheless, the deterioration in the global economy and declining global commodity prices caused exports growth slid further. On the production side, economic growth was sustained by three main sectors – (i) manufacturing sector, (ii) trade, hotel, and restaurant sector, and (iii) transportation and communication sector. Indonesia’s economic growth is expected to arrive at 6.1 – 6.5% for the whole year of 2012 and pick up to 6.3 – 6.7% in 2013, supported by underlying strength of private consumption and investment.
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Forecast of Economic Growth - Demand Side Sector 2010 2011 2012 2012* 2013* I II Private Consumption 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.7
4.6
Government Consumption 0.3 3.2 5.9 7.0 5.7
4.2
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8.5 8.8 10.0 12.3 9.6
11.5
Exports of Goods and Services 15.3 13.6 7.9 1.9 10.6
12.3
Imports of Goods and Services 17.3 13.3 8.0 10.9 11.6
14.3
GDP 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.1
6.3
Forecast of Economic Growth - Supply Side S e c t o r 2010 2011 2012 2012* 2013* I II Agriculture 3.0 3.0 4.3 3.7 3.0
3.0
Mining and Quarrying 3.6 1.4 2.8 3.1 0.7
0.8
Manufacturing 4.7 6.2 5.7 5.4 6.0
6.1
Electricity, Gas, and Water Supply 5.3 4.8 5.2 5.9 5.5
5.4
Construction 7.0 6.7 7.2 7.3 7.5
8.6
Trade, Hotels, and Water Supply 8.7 9.2 8.3 8.9 8.7
9.1
Transportation and Communication 13.4 10.7 10.3 10.1 9.9
9.1
Financial, Rental, and Business Services 5.7 6.8 6.3 7.0 6.4
6.5
Services 6.0 6.7 5.5 5.7 6.4
6.2
GDP 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.1
6.3
* Bank Indonesia Projection
18
Source: Bank Indonesia
4.28% 7.27% 2.71% 4.56%
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2009 2010 2011 2012 %
CPI (%, yoy) Core (%, yoy) Volatile Food (%, yoy) Administered (%, yoy)
Source: Bank Indonesia
19
(-1.5% of GDP). The heightened deficit was largely due to a diminution in non-oil & gas trade balance as exports weakened while imports increased intensely. Other contributors to the deficit were enlarged deficit of services and income account. In addition, oil & gas trade balance still also shared negative contribution to the current account.
Direct and portfolio investment booked the biggest increase, while other investment also contributed positively through increase in private sector’s foreign loan disbursement and reduced asset placement abroad. This development reflects foreign investors remained high confidence in the resilience and prospect of Indonesian economy amid a high uncertainty clouding the global economy.
Source: Bank Indonesia
TOTAL TOTAL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL Q1** Q2** I. Current Account 10.6 5.1 2.9 0.3 0.7
1.7
30.9 30.6 9.2 9.3 9.6 6.7 34.8 3.8 1.6
119.6 158.1 45.9 51.8 52.4 50.7 200.8 48.4 47.9
25.6 27.4 8.8 10.7 9.2 6.7 35.4 4.7 2.2
9.4 11.9 3.6 4.4 4.7 4.2 16.9 4.4 4.2
4.6 4.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 4.2 1.0 0.8 II. Capital & Financial Account 1.1 26.6 4.8 11.6
0.3 13.4 2.5 5.5
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1.0 26.6 4.8 11.6
0.3 13.4 2.5 5.5
2.6 11.1 3.8 2.5 2.1 3.1 11.5 1.7 3.9
10.7 13.2 3.3 4.9
0.3 3.9 2.7 3.8
2.3
4.2
III. Total (I + II) 11.7 31.8 7.7 12.0
15.2
IV. Net Errors & Omissions 0.8
0.0
V. Overall Balance (III + IV) 12.5 30.3 7.7 11.9
11.9
Memorandum: Reserve Asset Position 66.1 96.2 105.7 119.7 114.5 110.1 110.1 110.5 106.5 In Months of Imports & Official Debt Repayment 6.7 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.3 6.5 6.5 6.2 5.7 Current Account (% GDP) 1.95 0.72 1.45 0.16 0.30
0.20
Debt Service Ratio (%) 21.1 19.8 18.4 21.9 19.8 24.8 21.3 30.3 30.5
6.0 3.9 2.1 4.0 2.0 4.0 3.0 2.1 4.2 2012
INDONESIA'S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
(billions of USD) I T E M S 2009 2010 2011*
20
The non-oil & gas trade balance surplus eroded from US$4.7 billion in preceding quarter to US$2.2 billion in Q2/2012 as exports plunged while imports maintained a high growth. The economic slowdown in the US and Europe has undermined the prospects for growth in Indonesia’s trade counterpart countries such as China and
falling commodity prices. On the other side, Indonesian economy grew strongly by 6.4%, supported by consumption and investment. The strong consumption and investment triggered a high non-oil & gas imports. During the reporting period, non-oil & gas exports experienced an 8,5% (y.o.y) drop, while imports grew by 15.2%.
Source: Bank Indonesia
2 4 6 8 10 12
10 20 30 40 50 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2** 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012
Non-Oil & Gas Trade Balance
Exports Imports Trade Balance (RHS) billion USD billion USD
1 2 3 4
5 10 15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2** 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012
Oil & Gas Trade Balance
Imports Exports OG Trade Balance (RHS) billion USD billion USD
In Q2/2012, oil & gas sector still share a negative contribution to the current account. The oil and gas trade balance posted a US$0,6 billion deficit, smaller than a US$0.9 billion deficit in the previous quarter as the oil trade deficit narrowed. Oil exports decreased by 4,9% in line with a falling crude oil production and falling price. Meanwhile, although shrank by 7,5% compared to previous quarter, oil imports remained high in keeping with soaring domestic fuel consumption. 21
Source: Bank Indonesia
2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2** 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012
Income Services billion USD 22
Source: Bank Indonesia
2 4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2** 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012
Financial Account (assets)
Direct Inv. (abroad) Portfolio Inv. Other Inv. Financial Account (RHS) billion USD
1 2 3 4 5 6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2** 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012
Foreign Direct Investment
Other Capital Equity Capital & Reinvested Earnings Total billion USD billion USD
23
Source: Bank Indonesia
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2** 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012
Foreign Portfolio Investment
Debt Sec, net Equity, net Total billion USD
1 2 3 4 5 6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2** 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012
Foreign Other Investment
Private Sector Public Sector Total billion USD
24
Source: Bank Indonesia.
25
current policy rate is considered consistent with inflation forecast, which is expected to remain low and contained within its target range of 4.5%±1% in 2012 and 2013. On the external side, Bank Indonesia remains vigilant on the rising current account deficit caused by weaker exports performance as the global economy slowed, amid strong imports in line with robust domestic demand. In that regard, Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen its policy measures to encourage orderly adjustment in the external balance so that current account deficit will return to its sustainable level. Bank Indonesia will maintain Rupiah stability, consistent with the fundamental condition, to support orderly adjustment in the external balance. In addition, Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen coordination with the Government in managing domestic demand so that it remains supportive to an effort to maintain macroeconomic stability and sustainable economic growth. With those policy measures, pressure on Balance of Payment is expected to ease in the second half of 2012.
Source: Bank Indonesia.
26
8.75% 7.50% 6.75% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.75% 6.75% 6.50% 6.00% 5.75% 5.75%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
27
Source: Bank Indonesia 17 18 17.617.8 17.4 17 17.217.3 16.7 17.1 16.6 16.1 18.418.518.3 18 17.9 17.5
14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19
2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Source: Bank Indonesia
28
759 758 813 818 819 853 880 855 857 870 882 906 940 950 982 1,015 1,022 1,042 1,068 1,027 1,058 1,090 1,128 1,168 1,206 336 339 325 327 332 330 348 342 357 375 383 394 407 413 424 429 436 449 464 472 475 491 494 510 525 489 500 501 513 523 523 537 548 558 568 577 588 603 610 625 635 647 659 667 661 669 685 696 708 722
Working Capital loans Investment Loans Consumption Loans
Source: Bank Indonesia
29
Indicators Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Total Asset (T Rp) 2,990.7 2,993.1 3,065.8 3,069.1 3,136.4 3,195.1 3,216.8 3,252.6 3,371.5 3,407.5 3,569.9 3,651.8 3,598.7 3,628.1 3,708.7 3,745.1 3,827.5 3,891.1 Deposits (T Rp) 2,302.1 2,287.8 2,351.4 2,340.2 2,397.2 2,438.0 2,464.1 2,459.9 2,544.9 2,587.3 2,644.7 2,784.1 2,742.3 2,763.9 2,826.0 2,841.4 2,909.0 2,955.8
530.6 529.8 540.8 528.3 561.2 577.0 567.3 524.2 580.6 596.5 616.5 652.6 645.7 624.2 656.0 655.8 700.3 718.3
715.8 713.2 722.7 734.5 740.8 753.7 763.5 785.7 797.0 802.7 827.7 897.9 865.9 883.9 888.9 903.5 913.2 939.2
1,055.6 1,044.9 1,087.8 1,077.4 1,095.2 1,107.3 1,133.3 1,150.0 1,167.3 1,188.1 1,200.6 1,233.6 1,230.8 1,255.8 1,281.0 1,282.1 1,295.4 1,298.3
1,776.1 1,803.9 1,844.2 1,872.6 1,918.6 1,979.6 2,002.3 2,060.8 2,108.6 2,135.5 2,180.5 2,228.5 2,189.2 2,231.7 2,294.9 2,344.9 2,413.9 2,480.7 Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 17.0 18.0 17.6 17.8 17.4 17.0 17.2 17.3 16.7 17.1 16.6 16.1 18.4 18.5 18.3 18.0 17.9 17.5 NPL Gross (without channeling) (%) 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 Return on Assets (%) 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.2 Net Interest Margin (%) 5.6 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.1 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4
83.5 80.5 77.8 78.5 78.2 80.0 81.6 80.8 79.4 79.1 79.0 81.5 91.8 77.5 76.7 76.7 76.8 74.7 Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)* 75.8 77.5 77.2 78.8 78.8 80.0 80.1 82.6 81.7 81.4 81.3 79.0 78.8 79.7 80.2 81.6 82.0 83.0
121 121 121 121 121 121 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 *) without channeling
Revised Budget (APBN-P) Semester I Realization Full Year Realization Realization Revised Budget (APBN-P) Semester I Realization
31
Source: Ministry of Finance
Expendit iture : Rp1.5 .548,3 T
Non tax Revenue Rp341,1T (25,1%)
Grant Rp0,8T (0,1%)
Income Tax Rp513,7T (50,5%)
VAT Rp336,1T (33,1%)
Excise Rp83,3T (8,2%)
Property Tax Rp29,7T (2,9%)
International Rp47,9T (4,7%)
Other tax
Rp5,6T (0,6%)
Natural Resources Rp198,3T (63,7%)
SOE Rp30,8T (9,0%) Other non tax revenue Rp72,8T (21,3%)
BLU Rp20,4T (6,0%)
Transfer to Region Rp478,8T (30,9%)
Material Rp186,6T (17,4%)
Capital Rp168,7T (15,8%)
Interest Payment Rp117,8T (11,0%)
Subsidy Rp245,1T (22,9%)
Social Assistance Rp55,4T (5,2%)
Others Rp65,5T (6,1%) Grant Expenditure Rp1,8T (0,2%)
Deficit : Rp190,1T (2,23% PDB)
Balance Fund Rp408,4T (85,3%)
Special Autonomy and adjustment Fund Rp70,4T (14,7%) Revenue Sharing Fund Rp108,4T (26,6%)
General Allocation Fund Rp273,8T (67,1%)
Specific Allocation Fund Rp26,1T (6,4%)
Central Government Expenditure : Rp1.069,5T (69,1%)
Poverty: 10,5-11,5%; Unemployment:6,4-6,6%; Workforce increase 450.000 people per 1% Economic Growth
Personnel Rp212,3T (19,8%) Financing : Rp190,0T
Debt Rp156,2T (82,2%) Non-Debt Rp33,9T (17,8%)
Revenue : Rp1.358,2 ,2T
32
Source: Ministry of Finance
Revised Budget (APBNP) Semester I Realization % of APBNP Revised Budget (APBNP) Semester I Realization % of APBNP
1,169.9 497.0 42.5 1,358.2 593.3 43.7
1,165.3 496.9 42.6 1,357.4 592.6 43.7
878.7 387.6 44.1 1,016.2 456.8 44.9 Tax Ratio (% of GDP) 12.16 10.84
11.51 96.80
286.6 109.3 38.2 341.1 135.8 39.8
4.7 0.1 2.5 0.8 0.8 91.0 1,320.8 442.3 33.5 1,548.3 629.4 40.7
908.2 259.8 28.6 1,069.5 393.9 36.8
412.5 182.5 44.3 478.8 235.5 49.2 (44.3) 101.4 (229.2) (72.3) 13.5 (18.7) (150.8) 54.7 (36.3) (190.1) (36.1) 19.0 Deficit of GDP (%) (2.09)
(0.91)
62.4 41.4 190.1 101.6 53.5
153.6 78.9 51.3 194.5 120.9 62.1
(2.8) (16.5) 592.5 (4.4) (19.2) 434.8 SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) of FINANCING 0.0 117.1
65.5
ITEMS 2011 2012
33
Source: Ministry of Finance
34
Source: Ministry of Finance
Nominal
163,1 192,0 214,0 177,3 217,2 39,9 80,0 36,8 1) Oil and Gas 149,3 173,2 193,4 159,5 198,3 38,8 68,7 34,7
107,5 123,1 141,2 113,7 150,8 37,2 47,8 31,7
41,8 50,1 52,2 45,8 47,5 1,7 20,9 44,1
2) Non-oil and gas 13,8 18,8 20,6 17,8 18,8 1,1 11,3 59,7
0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2
59,4
2,9 2,9 3,2 3,0 3,1 0,1 1,6 52,6
10,4 15,4 16,7 14,5 15,3 0,8 9,2 60,2
0,4 0,4 0,6 0,2 0,3 0,1 0,4 101,8
27,6 28,8 28,2 28,0 30,8 2,8 14,5 47,2
45,2 50,3 68,6 53,5 72,8 19,3 34,8 47,7
15,0 15,4 10,4 19,2 20,4 1,2 6,5 31,9 250,9 286,6 321,2 278,0 341,1 63,2 135,8 39,8 Semester I Realization % to APBN- P 2012
Differences from APBN
APBN APBN-P Real. APBN APBN-P TOTAL Items 2011
35
Source: Ministry of Finance
36
Source: Ministry of Finance
I (9.544,5) 33.943,1 43.487,6 3.208,1 9,5 A 8.947,0 60.561,6 51.614,6 3.174,0 5,2 1. 3.890,2 4.387,9 497,7 3.174,0 72,3 2. 5.056,8 56.173,7 51.116,9 - - B (18.491,5) (26.618,5) (8.127,0) 34,1 (0,1) 1 Asset Restructuring 280,0 280,0
190,8 2 (17.138,1) (19.265,1) (2.127,0) (500,0) 2,6 3 (1.000,0) (7.000,0) (6.000,0) - - 4 Contigency Liabilities (633,3) (633,3)
133.564,4 156.162,3 22.597,9 98.437,2 63,0 A Foreign Loan (Nett) (1.892,3) (4.425,6) (2.533,3) (19.242,8) 434,8
54.282,4 53.731,1 (551,3) 6.721,2 12,5
(8.914,6) (8.431,8) 482,8 (772,7) 9,2
(47.260,1) (49.724,9) (2.464,8) (25.191,3) 50,7 B Government Bonds 134.596,7 159.596,7 25.000,0 117.583,6 73,7 C Domestic Loan 860,0 991,2 131,2 96,4 9,7 TOTAL FINANCING 124.019,9 190.105,4 66.085,5 101.645,3 53,5
Government/State Investment Fund DEBT FINANCING
NON DEBT FINANCING Domestic Banking SLA Amortization SAL Domestic non Banking Educational Endowment Fund
37
Source: Ministry of Finance
38
Source: Ministry of Finance
39
Source: Ministry of Finance
40
Source: Ministry of Finance
50% 50% 53% 53% 48% 53% 54% 55% 55% 50% 50% 47% 47% 52% 47% 46% 45% 45% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2004 2006 2008 2010 31-Jul-12
Domestic Debt Foreign Debt
56,6% 47,3% 39,0% 35,2% 33,1% 28,4% 26,1% 24,4% 23,2% 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Source: Ministry of Finance
Debt to GDP Ratio (% of GDP)
*: realization Des 31,2011 (unaudited) **: projection realization 2012
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 * GDP 2.295.826,0 2.774.282,0 3.339.217,0 3.950.894,0 4.948.689,0 5.603.870,8 6.422.918,2 7.427.086,1 8.542.634,4 Debt Outstanding (billion IDR) 1.299.504,0 1.313.294,7 1.302.159,0 1.389.415,0 1.636.740,7 1.590.386,0 1.676.852,1 1.808.946,8 1.984.354,0
653.032,2 658.670,9 693.118,0 737.125,5 783.855,1 836.318,0 902.599,8 993.038,2 1.117.426,1
646.471,9 654.623,9 609.041,0 652.289,5 852.885,6 754.068,0 774.252,4 815.908,6 844.578,4 Debt to GDP Ratio 56,6% 47,3% 39,0% 35,2% 33,1% 28,4% 26,1% 24,4% 23,2%
28,4% 23,7% 20,8% 18,7% 15,8% 14,9% 14,1% 13,4% 13,1%
28,2% 23,6% 18,2% 16,5% 17,2% 13,5% 12,1% 11,0% 9,9% End of Year
42
[in percentage]
61 59 64 69 69 63 62 62 67 65 68 68 66 68 64 73 77 71 71 82 85 83 104 118 131 139
100 150 200 250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Dec 2011 June 2012
Loan Government Securities
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Dec 2011 June 2012 Loan 47% 48% 47% 47% 49% 47% 43% 42% 45% 38% 37% 37% 32% Government Securities 53% 52% 53% 53% 51% 53% 57% 58% 55% 62% 63% 63% 68% Total Central Government Debt 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
43
Source: Ministry of Finance
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 120,0 140,0 160,0
2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2038 2040 2043
Domestic Foreign
IDR Trillion
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 120,0 140,0 160,0
2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2038 2040 2043
Gov't Securities Loan
IDR Trillion
44
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
Trillion IDR 2011 - Realized Budget* % of GDP 2012 - Budget (trillion IDR) % of GDP 2012 - Revised Budget (trillion IDR) % of GDP Total Revenue & Grants 1.199,5 16,9% 1.311,4 16,2% 1.358,2 16,7%
Tax Revenue 872,6 12,3% 1.032,6 12,7% 1.016,2 12,5% Non Tax Revenue 324,3 4,6% 277,99 3,4% 341,14 4,2% 0,0% 0,0% Expenditure 1.289,6 18,1% 1.435,4 17,7% 1.548,3 19,1%
Interest payment 93,3 1,3% 122,2 1,5% 117,8 1,5% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% Subsidy 294,9 4,1% 208,9 2,6% 245,1 3,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% Primary Balance 3,1 0,0% (1,8) 0,0% (72,3)
Overall Balance (deficit) (90,1)
(124,0)
(190,1)
Financing 129,3 1,8% 124,0 1,5% 190,1 2,3% Non Debt (Net) 28,3 0,4% (9,5)
33,9 0,4% Debt 101,0 1,4% 133,6 1,6% 156,2 1,9% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% Govt Securities (Net) 119,9 1,7% 134,6 1,7% 159,6 2,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% Domestic Official Borrowing 0,3 0,0% 0,9 0,0% 1,0 0,0% External Official Borrowing (Net) (19,2)
(1,9) 0,0% (4,4)
Disbursement 31,7 0,4% 54,3 0,7% 53,7 0,7% Program Loan 13,6 0,2% 15,3 0,2% 15,6 0,2% Project Loan (Bruto) 18,1 0,3% 39,0 0,5% 38,1 0,5% On lending (3,6) 0,0% (8,9)
(8,4)
Repayment (47,3)
(47,2)
(49,7)
Assumptions: GDP (trillion) 7.114,0 8.119,8 8.542,6 Growth (%) 6,7 6,5 Inflation (%) 5,3 6,8 3-months SPN (% avg) 4,8 6,5 5,0 Rp / USD (avg) 8.776,0 8.800,0 9.000,0 Oil Price (USD/barrel) 111,6 90,0 105,0 Oil Lifting (MBCD) 898,1 950,0 930,0 Item
IDR (trillion) $ USD (billion) IDR (trillion) $ USD (billion)
Deficit (124,0) (13,08) (190,1) (20,05) Amortization (167,6) (17,68) (160,7) (16,95) External Loan (47) (5) (50) (5) Govt Securities (incl Buyback) (120) (13) (111) (12) Domestic Loan (0,14) (0,01) (0,14) (0,01) Non Debt Financing Expenditures (18,77) (1,98) (26,62) (2,81) Two Steps Loan (8,9) (0,94) (8,4) (0,89) Financing Needs (319,3) (33,7) (385,8) (40,7) Financing Sources 319,3 33,7 385,8 40,7 Non Debt (Gross) 9,2 0,97 60,6 6,39 Debt (Gross) 310,1 32,71 325,3 34,31 Govt Securities 254,8 26,9 270,4 28,5 Program Loan 15,3 1,6 15,6 1,6 Project Loan (Bruto) 39,0 4,1 38,1 4,0 Domestic Loan 1,0 0,1 1,1 0,1
Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD 1) a.o August 13, 2012 : 9.480 IDR
2012 - Budget 2012 - Revised Budget
45
Dec-10 May-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 13-Aug-12 Total 195.755 225.319 222.857 224.716 224.502 224.422 234.556 238.352 >5 131.232 143.260 140.762 143.770 142.470 150.943 157.951 163.381 >2-5 35.511 42.134 37.400 38.933 41.124 38.632 45.097 44.847 >1-2 9.077 13.227 18.252 14.039 15.596 11.026 10.561 8.802 0-1 19.935 26.698 26.443 27.973 25.311 23.821 20.946 21.321 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 [IDR billion]
Holders of Tradable Domestic Government Securities Foreign Ownership of Govt Domestic Debt Securities
Source: Ministry of Finance
There is an increasing proportion of foreign and non-bank holders of Indonesian Government securities.
67,34% 19,23% 4,50% 8,93% 68,55% 18,82% 3.69% 8,95%
66,07% 59,34% 53,60% 43,72% 33,88% 36,63% 35,03% 20,82% 24,30% 29,74% 37,71% 35,59% 32,58% 35,51% 13,12% 16,36% 16,66% 18,56% 30,53% 30,80% 29,46%
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 13-Aug-12
Foreign Holders Domestic Non-Banks Domestic Banks
46
Source: Ministry of Finance
new bond (SU-007) and omitted indexation of SU-002 & SU-004
GOVERNMENT DEBT SECURITIES (GDS) Des '07 Des '08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 13-Aug-12
IDR 14.669 IDR 21.503 IDR 33.386 IDR 32.307 IDR 32.412 IDR 36.612 IDR 35.162 IDR 34.562 IDR 35.012 IDR 33.212 IDR 30.692 IDR 30.242 IDR 31.542
IDR 4.169 IDR 10.012 IDR 24.700 IDR 29.795 IDR 29.900 IDR 34.100 IDR 32.650 IDR 32.050 IDR 32.500 IDR 30.700 IDR 28.180 IDR 27.730 IDR 29.030
IDR 10.500 IDR 11.491 IDR 8.686 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 Government Domestic Bonds
IDR 294.453 IDR 353.558 IDR 393.543 IDR 440.396 IDR 517.142 IDR 524.961 IDR 544.611 IDR 537.822 IDR 545.822 IDR 553.247 IDR 570.507 IDR 578.977 IDR 589.327
IDR 168.625 IDR 145.934 IDR 143.286 IDR 142.795 IDR 135.063 IDR 135.063 IDR 135.063 IDR 135.063 IDR 135.063 IDR 135.063 IDR 129.773 IDR 129.773 IDR 127.123
IDR 477.747 IDR 520.995 IDR 570.215 IDR 615.498 IDR 684.618 IDR 696.636 IDR 714.837 IDR 707.447 IDR 715.897 IDR 721.522 IDR 730.972 IDR 738.992 IDR 747.992
IDR 259.404 IDR 258.160 IDR 251.875 IDR 248.432 IDR 244.636 IDR 244.636 IDR 243.807 IDR 243.807 IDR 243.463 IDR 243.463 IDR 242.595 IDR 242.595 IDR 241.417
IDR 737.151 IDR 779.155 IDR 822.090 IDR 863.930 IDR 929.254 IDR 941.273 IDR 958.644 IDR 951.254 IDR 959.360 IDR 964.985 IDR 973.567 IDR 981.587 IDR 989.409
USD 7.000 USD 11.200 USD 14.200 USD 16.200 USD 18.700 USD 20.450 USD 20.450 USD 20.450 USD 22.950 USD 22.950 USD 22.950 USD 22.950 USD 22.950 35.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥
IDR 901.795 IDR 959.130 IDR 1.020.062 IDR 1.109.922 IDR 1.136.525 IDR 1.155.143 IDR 1.149.602 IDR 1.181.164 IDR 1.196.036 IDR 1.202.498 IDR 1.210.796 IDR 1.218.483 GOVERNMENT ISLAMIC DEBT SECURITIES (GIDS) Government Domestic Islamic Bonds
IDR - IDR 4.700 IDR 11.533 IDR 25.717 IDR 37.668 IDR 37.668 IDR 37.084 IDR 52.433 IDR 56.153 IDR 57.568 IDR 59.023 IDR 59.483 IDR 60.023
IDR 1.320 IDR 1.320 IDR 420 IDR 700 IDR 280 IDR 1.185 IDR 1.185 IDR 1.185 IDR 1.185 Government International Islamic Bonds
USD 650 USD 650 USD 1.650 USD 1.650 USD 1.650 USD 1.650 USD 1.650 USD 1.650 USD 1.650 USD 1.650 USD 1.650
IDR - IDR 4.700 IDR 17.643 IDR 31.561 IDR 53.950 IDR 53.838 IDR 52.494 IDR 68.280 IDR 71.596 IDR 74.535 IDR 75.850 IDR 76.318 IDR 76.850
IDR 803.084 IDR 906.495 IDR 979.458 IDR 1.064.406 IDR 1.187.655 IDR 1.214.146 IDR 1.231.420 IDR 1.246.665 IDR 1.284.044 IDR 1.304.354 IDR 1.314.131 IDR 1.322.897 IDR 1.331.116 Notes:
IDR 18.885 IDR 34.699 IDR 40.149 IDR 40.672 IDR 51.672 IDR 51.672 IDR 42.614 IDR 29.775 IDR 29.775 IDR 29.775 IDR 29.775 IDR 29.775 IDR 29.775
IDR 5.556 IDR 13.590 IDR 20.931 IDR 20.931 IDR 15.375 IDR 28.989 IDR 28.989 IDR 28.989 IDR 28.989 IDR 28.989 IDR 28.989
IDR 2.686 IDR 12.783 IDR 23.783 IDR 23.783 IDR 23.783 IDR 28.783 IDR 31.283 IDR 33.783 IDR 35.783 IDR 35.783 IDR 35.783
(e.o Dec 2007) (31 Des '08) (31 Des '09) (31 Des '10) (30 Des '11) (31 Jan '12) (29 Feb '12) (31 Mar '12) (30 Apr '12) (31 Mei '12) (30 Jun '12) (31 Jul '12) (13 Agust '12)
IDR 9.419 IDR 10.950 IDR 9.400 IDR 8.991 IDR 9.068 IDR 9.000 IDR 9.085 IDR 9.180 IDR 9.190 IDR 9.565 IDR 9.480 IDR 9.485 IDR 9.480
IDR 101,70 IDR 110,29 IDR 116,80 IDR 117,92 IDR 112,75 IDR 111,76 IDR 114,67 IDR 121,41 IDR 119,63 IDR 121,35 IDR 121,14
47
[in IDR Million]
Source: Ministry of Finance
Auction Date Series Settlement Date Maturity Coupon WAY/ WAP Target Total Bids Total Accepted Bids to Accepted Total 2006 26.875.000 98.850.550 42.578.650 2,32 Total 2007 47.000.000 205.057.495 86.379.695 2,37 Total 2008 58.000.000 158.483.440 86.931.640 1,82 Total 2009 64.190.000 227.140.120 97.756.020 2,32 Total 2010 113.671.500 366.720.245 136.861.860 2,68 TOTAL 2011 146.360.000 435.088.810 158.501.410 2,75 Jan-12 21.825.000 81.979.500 21.825.000 3,76 Feb-12 27.647.000 73.831.000 27.647.000 2,67 Mar-12 10.895.000 32.173.000 10.895.000 2,95 Apr-12 14.920.000 45.585.000 14.920.000 3,06 May-12 9.890.000 32.527.500 9.890.000 3,29 Jun-12 15.805.000 31.339.400 15.680.000 2,00 SPN12130704 04-Jul-13
792.700 550.000 1,44 FR0061 15-Mei-22 7,00% 6,10% 6.483.000 3.300.000 1,96 FR0059 15-Mei-27 7,00% 6,51% 3.720.000 1.900.000 1,96 FR0058 15-Jun-32 8,25% 6,82% 5.491.500 1.200.000 4,58 SPN-S11012013
18-Okt-12
4.330.000 500.000 8,66 SPN12130704 04-Jul-13
2.654.500 1.000.000 2,65 FR0060 15-Apr-17 6,25% 5,47% 2.800.000 1.250.000 2,24 FR0058 15-Jun-32 8,25% 6,67% 12.502.200 4.500.000 2,78 FR0062 15-Apr-42 6,38% 6,80% 5.403.000 1.750.000 3,09 SPN-S25012013
15-Feb-37 6,10% 6,69% 530.000 460.000 1,15 16.410.000 47.392.900 16.410.000 2,89 Jul-12 16.410.000 47.392.900 16.410.000 2,89 SPN-S08022013
15-Feb-18 4,45% 5,66% 726.000 40.000 18,15 PBS002
15-Feb-37 6,10% 6,72% 589.000 500.000 1,18 SPN0312112 12-Nop-12
1.169.000 850.000 1,38 SPN12130812 12-Agust-13
531.000 150.000 1,38 FR0063 15-Mei-23 5,63% 5,78% 7.471.300 2.480.000 1,18 FR0064 15-Mei-28 6,13% 6,29% 7.838.200 3.680.000 2,41 FR0062 15-Apr-42 6,38%
7.700.000 21.949.500 7.700.000 2,85 Aug-12 7.700.000 21.949.500 7.700.000 2,85 TOTAL 2012 125.092.000 366.777.800 124.967.000 2,93 TOTAL 638.088.500 1.992.442.660 793.802.775 2,51 07-Aug-12 09-Agust-12 540.000 09-Aug-12 13-Agust-12 7.160.000 03-Jul-12 05-Jul-12 6.950.000 10-Jul-12
19/77/12 9.000.000 24-Jul-12 26-Jul-12 460.000
48
[in billion IDR]
Auctions Direct Transactions 2003 2
2004 1
2005 4
2007 2
2008 3
2009 1 1 8.528 2010 10 3 3.201 2011 2 8 3.500 2012
599 GRAND TOTAL 36.309 Frequencies Year Volume (IDR billion)
Auction Date Auction Frequency Source Bonds Tenor Series Offer Received Offer Awarded 2005 1 x 9 series 7.721 5.673 2006 12 x 7 s.d. 21 series 54.177 31.179 2007 9 x 12 s.d. 21 series 30.681 15.782 2008 2 x 21 s.d. 31 series 7.490 4.571 2009 6 x 24 s.d. 28 series 8.663 2.938 2010 6 x 11 s.d. 28 series 8.349 3.920 2011 4 x 22 s.d. 27 series 3.080 664 2012 2x 18 s.d 20 series 19.911 10.433 Total 140.072 75.160
49
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
By Region By Investor Type
RI0422 RI0142
1 Rating (S&P | Moody's | Fitch) BB+ | Baa3 | BBB- BB+ | Baa3 | BBB- 2 Size USD 2.000.000.000 USD 500.000.000 3 Coupon 3.75% s.a. 5.25% s.a. 4 Pricing Date 17 April 2012 17 April 2012 5 Settlement Date 25 April 2012 25 April 2012 6 Maturity Date 25 April 2022 17 Januari 2042 7 Yield when issued 3,850% 4,950% 8 Price when issued 99,176% 104,636% 9 Spread over US Treasury 184.8 bps 180.6 bps 10 US Treasury yield 2% 3,13%
50% 38% 5% 7% 62% 24% 9% 5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Fund Managers Banks Insurance & Pension Fund Private Banks
RI0422 RI0142
66% 17% 17% 35% 31% 34%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Asia Europe USA
RI0422 RI0142
50
Source: Ministry of Finance
ZC : Zero Coupon bond PN : T’bills IFR : Islamic Fixed Rate Bond SNI : International Sukuk IB : International Bond ORI : Retail Bond SR : Retail Sukuk SPN-S: Sharia T’bills VR : Variable Rate Bond FR : Fixed Rate Bond RIJPY : Samurai Bond PBS : Project Based Sukuk
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2030 2031 2032 … 2035 2036 2037 2038 2041 2042 Total 43,62 69,50 71,15 64,39 52,14 48,13 61,59 56,65 69,70 59,58 75,12 24,13 18,01 28,02 19,61 44,25 25,44 25,68 27,10 42,80
4,11 26,50 34,65 13,55 33,33 PBS
1,19
7,34 13,61
1,99
7,27
1,25 1,26
14,49 34,30 15,43 19,35 25,94 24,36 10,03 10,74 17,90 35,88 55,14 24,13 18,01 26,47 19,61 41,40 25,44 23,50 27,10 42,80
15,69 13,55 12,00 SPN 14,15 14,88
9,48 8,53 9,48 18,01 18,96 18,96 23,70 18,96
18,96
ORI 8,19 10,48 11,00
4,37
16,60 17,67 13,12 17,92 22,72 25,32
5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 trillion rupiah
51
(4,04) 17,97 10,17 5,77 4,27 9,73 (0,79) 4,56 (0,78) 5,43 11,17 9,85 3,90 9,67 13,88 (1,49) (29,29) 1,69 (4,99) 8,06 13,11 (8,99) (2,27) 4,15 (0,21) (0,08) 10,13 3,80
(40,00) (30,00) (20,00) (10,00) 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00
May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 13-Agust-12
Source: Ministry of Finance [Trillion IDR]
3.307 5.899 4.235 3.420 4.963 7.671 8.259 10.912 7.415 5.767 6.566 8.794 9.711 13.537
180 270 360 450 540 630 720
4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 Apr'12 May'12 Jun'12 Jul'12 13 Aug '12
Volume (billion rupiah) - LHS Frequency - RHS
52
Banks 217,27 33,88% 265,03 36,63% 267,49 36,36% 293,16 38,54% 297,98 37,66% 286,41 35,82% 283,50 35,03% State Banks - Recap 131,72 20,54% 148,64 20,54% 148,02 20,12% 148,50 19,52% 146,89 18,57% 140,03 17,51% Private Banks - Recap 54,93 8,57% 67,33 9,30% 70,90 9,64% 84,61 11,12% 81,85 10,35% 78,94 9,87% Non Recap Banks 26,26 4,10% 42,84 5,92% 41,74 5,67% 52,24 6,87% 57,98 7,33% 57,96 7,25% Regional Banks 1,41 0,22% 4,32 0,60% 5,03 0,68% 4,55 0,60% 7,48 0,95% 5,72 0,72% Shariah Banks 2,95 0,46% 1,90 0,26% 1,81 0,25% 3,26 0,43% 3,77 0,48% 3,75 0,47% 4,84 0,60% Govt Institutions 17,42 2,72% 7,84 1,08% 2,42 0,33% 3,12 0,41% 20,36 2,57% 31,48 3,94% 37,53 4,64% Bank Indonesia 17,42 2,72% 7,84 1,08% 2,42 0,33% 3,12 0,41% 20,36 2,57% 31,48 3,94% 37,53 4,64% Non-Banks 406,53 63,40% 450,75 62,29% 465,71 63,31% 464,30 61,05% 472,85 59,76% 481,77 60,25% 488,17 60,33% Mutual Funds 51,16 7,98% 47,22 6,53% 47,63 6,48% 46,95 6,17% 48,60 6,14% 48,60 6,08% 48,72 6,02% Insurance Company 79,30 12,37% 93,09 12,86% 93,63 12,73% 100,63 13,23% 106,86 13,51% 107,15 13,40% 107,77 13,32% Foreign Holders 195,76 30,53% 222,86 30,80% 235,97 32,08% 224,72 29,55% 224,42 28,37% 234,56 29,33% 238,35 29,46% Pension Fund 36,75 5,73% 34,39 4,75% 33,53 4,56% 33,93 4,46% 34,56 4,37% 34,04 4,26% 34,05 4,21% Securities Company 0,13 0,02% 0,14 0,02% 0,27 0,04% 0,53 0,07% 0,27 0,03% 0,37 0,05% 0,37 0,05% Others 43,43 6,77% 53,05 7,33% 54,68 7,43% 57,54 7,57% 58,14 7,35% 57,06 7,14% 58,91 7,28% Total 641,21 100% 723,61 100% 735,62 100% 760,58 100% 791,18 100% 799,66 100% 809,20 100% 13-Aug-12 Jun-12 Mar-12 Dec-11 Jul-12 Dec-10 Jan-12
Source: Ministry of Finance Notes:
Fund, etc
53