Recent Economic Developments March, 2010 Published by Investors - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Recent Economic Developments March, 2010 Published by Investors Relations Unit Republic of Indonesia Address Bank Indonesia International Directorate Investor Relations Unit Sjafruddin Prawiranegara Building, 5 th
March, 2010
Published by Investors Relations Unit – Republic of Indonesia Address Bank Indonesia International Directorate Investor Relations Unit Sjafruddin Prawiranegara Building, 5th floor Jalan M.H. Thamrin 2 Jakarta, 10110 Indonesia Tel +6221 381 8316 +6221 381 8298 Facsimile +6221 350 1950 E-mail Elsya Chani: elsya_chani@bi.go.id Dyah Miranti Wulandari: dyah_mw@bi.go.id Website www.bi.go.id/iru
Indonesia’s economy has posted robust growth in 2008 and one of the rare countries which successfully posted a positive growth rate in 2009, navigating through the global financial turmoil and economic slowdown. For the whole 2009, the economy charted fairly vigorous growth at 4.5%(yoy) and it is projected at 5.5-6.0 % in 2010 In the financial sector, banking industry remains solid with high level of CAR (17.4%) and comfortably safe level of NPL (gross) at a 3.8% (as of December 2009 data), and as economic actors gain more confidence in the economic
By the end of Q4-2009, Indonesia's overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of US$4.0 billion larger than a surplus of US$3.5 billion in the preceding quarter, resulted from surpluses in both the current account as well as the capital and financial account. International reserves reached to USD 69.7 billion as of end of February 2010, equivalent to about 5.7 months of imports and official external debt payment. In 2009, Rupiah has been showing an appreciation trend, mainly supported by continuing of global economic recovery and positive economic performance which outperformed regional economy. Rupiah strengthened from IDR 10,950 against USD as on December 31, 2008 to IDR 9,400 against USD as on December 31, 2009, representing 16.5%
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Monetary relaxation during 2009 has provided ample support for the economic recovery and bank intermediation
6.50% after concluding the present level of the BI Rate is consistent with achievement of the 2010 inflation target, set at 5%±1%. In the balance of risk, the probability of renewed inflationary pressure is low, at least during the first half of
promote the banking intermediation function. The Indonesian economy in 2009 has charted remarkably low inflation. In 2009, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded annual inflation at 2.8% (yoy). Inflationary pressure eased in February 2010 in line with the drop in inflationary pressure from volatile foods (led by rice), minimum inflation from administered prices and modest inflation
Inflation in 2010 will stay within the target range of 5%±1%. With the fiscal deficit target of 1.6% of GDP in 2010, Government continues to maintain the balancing act to support the recovery and to anticipate the global growth momentum going forward by improving public infrastructure and
sustaining fiscal stimulus. We expect to see fiscal deficit move on a downward trend. On the revenue side, tax ratio is expected to pick up.
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Despite of the global crisis, the Republic continued to receive good review from Rating agencies:
Moody’s Investors Service (September 16, 2009): upgraded Indonesia’s foreign and local-currency sovereign debt ratings to Ba2 with stable outlook. The upgrade was prompted by the Indonesian economy’s relatively strong resilience to the global recession as well as its healthy medium-term growth prospects. S & P (March 12, 2010): upgraded Indonesia’s long-term foreign currency rating to BB from BB- with positive outlook which indicates that Indonesia has big possibility to be upgraded in one year. The main factor supporting this decision is steadily improving debt metrics and growing foreign currency reserves which reduced vulnerability to shock with continued cautious fiscal management. Fitch Ratings upgraded the Republic of Indonesia’s sovereign rating in January 25, 2010 to ‘BB+’ from ‘BB’ with stable outlook. The rating action reflects Indonesia’s relative resilience to the severe global financial stress test of 2008-2009 which has been underpinned by continued improvements in the country’s public finances.
CCC- CCC+ B BB- BB+ BBB SD/DDD R/C CC CCC B- B+ BB BBB- Ca Caa2 B3 B1 Ba2 Baa3 Baa1 BBB+ C Caa3 Caa1 B2 Ba3 Ba1 Baa2 Economic Crisis in 1998 Banks Recapitalization Continuous fiscal adjustment, improving liquidity and structural improvements in real economy Sound record of fiscal management on the success of Government efforts to improve the investment climate
Current Ratings: Moody’s: Ba2 S&P: BB Fitch BB+
Diminished likelihood that the Government will seek additional debt rescheduling Gradually improving external liquidity, macroeconomic stability and improved political conditions
Jan 10: Fitch upgrades to BB+ (stable
Sep 09: Moody’s upgrade to Ba2 (stable
Mar 10: S&P upgrade to BB (positive outlook)
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Indonesia Development Policy is based on a ‘Triple Track Strategy’
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
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Fiscal Policy framework for 2009 and 2010 Fiscal Stimulus Policies:
Maintain Social Welfare
Tax and Administrative Reforms:
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Fiscal Policy for 2010 to Promote Economic Recovery
Fiscal Policy for 2010 to Enhance Indonesia’s Competitiveness
(*): Preliminary Source: Ministry of Finance, BPS.
Sustainable Economic Growth
During 2007 - 2008, the economy performed steadily at 6,2% on average, which was the highest GDP growth after Asian crisis. However, in Q4-2008, Indonesia’s economic performance began to moderate as an impact of the global economic downturn. Furthermore, GDP growth in Q1-2009 and Q2-2009 slid to 4,5% and 4,1% (yoy). The softening GDP growth was largely the result of plunging export, commensurate with the deterioration in global economic condition. Despite this, economic activity fuelled by the national election activities has been able to keep domestic economy from further decline. Entering the Q3-2009, global economic development showed a sign of improvement, faster than expected. Household consumption remains strong, primarily supported by maintained household confidence to domestic economic performance. As a result, the Indonesian economy in Q3-2009 charted a 4,2% growth (yoy) and will continue to trend upward. GDP in Q4-2009 showed a significant improvement charted a 5.4% growth (yoy). and as the result, Indonesia’s economic growth for the whole 2009 reached 4,5% (yoy), better than expected. The major improvement was a result from increased exports, investment, and government consumption. Going forward in 2010, the Indonesian economy is forecasted to grow in the range of 5.0%-5.5%, with growth in 2011 climbing to 6.0%-6.5%. This improving growth trend is predicted alongside recovery in the world economy, strong domestic demand, and improvement in financial and banking sector.
The growth is quite strong compared globally.
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Source: Bank Indonesia.
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2006 2007 2008* 2009* 5.5 6.3 6.0 4.5 % yoy
Protected by prudential guidelines and conservative practices, the Banking Sector has weathered the global financial turmoil and posted good performance : strong solvency, contained risk exposure and profitability
The industry’s resilience and maintained positive performance is owed to prudent measures and policies:
collaterals from previously only high quality Sufficient CAR (%) Declining NPLs (%)
10 21.3% 19.3% 16.8% 17.4% 2006 2007 2008 Dec-09 Average CAR (%) 3.60% 1.90% 1.50% 0.90% 2006 2007 2008 Dec-09 Net NPL(%)
Source: Bank Indonesia.
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Balance of Payments
Indonesia's balance of payments in Q4/2009 posted a surplus of US$4.0 billion, up from a surplus of US$3.5 billion in Q3/2009. This surplus is encouraged by the performance of both the current account and the capital and financial account. In response, international reserves at the end of Q4-2009 mounted to US$66.1 billion, equivalent to 6.5 months of imports and official external debt service payments.
Source: Bank Indonesia.
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Source: Bank Indonesia, BPS.
recovery and bank intermediation processes.
recorded annual inflation at 2.78% (yoy)., the lowest inflation in ten years
factors of lower trading partner inflation, appreciation in the exchange rate and softening public expectations of inflation.
measures to strengthen economic recovery.
The monetary relaxation has offered ample support for the economic recovery and bank intermediation process 5 10 15 20 2006 2007 2008 2009 BI Rate (%) Inflation (%y-o-y)
5 10 15 20
Food Processed Food Housing Clothing Health Education Transp. & Comm.
% 2006 2007 2008 2009
BI Rate and Inflation Sources of Inflation
Inflation in 2009 came to 2.78% (yoy), fell below the inflation target and the lowest inflation in 10 years. The low inflation was closely linked to external demand and a series of policy actions instituted by the government. The steep global economic contraction sent world commodity prices tumbling in 2009, a development that also slowed activity in the domestic economy As global economic growth is expected to pick up, international commodity prices will follow suits accordingly, raising imported
with higher economic growth. Those conditions will increase people expectation on inflation. With that, inflation is estimated to return to its normal path of 5 1% in 2010. In February 2010 inflationary pressure eased in line with the drop in inflationary pressure from volatile foods (led by rice), minimum inflation from administered prices and modest inflation expectations. Inflation in February 2010 was recorded at 0.30% (mtm), or in annual terms at 3.81% (yoy).
CPI Inflation
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Source: Bank Indonesia 0.30 5.27 6.71 9.17 3.81
5 10 15 20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Monthly (m-t-m) Annually (y-o-y)
particularly well maintained domestic economic fundamentals.
regional economy.
holdings was driven by an attractive yield of Indonesia’s assets.
expected to be stable along with favorable economic condition.
Rupiah Exchange Rate – Against USD Exchange Rate Movement – Indonesia Compared to Regional
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Source: Bank Indonesia.
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is forecasted at about 5.5%-6.0% Better exports performance along with global economic recovery and rising commodity prices Strong household consumption growth on the back of strong consumer confidence and increasing income from exports revenue Responding to strong demand from domestic and external, investment is also expected to pick up
2010 Forecast Main Factors Behind The Forecast
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Source: Bank Indonesia.
is estimated to be on target at range of 5.0% 1% As global economic growth is expected to pick up, international commodity prices will follow suits accordingly, raising imported inflation. From domestic side, in addition to administered price, inflationary pressure will also come from higher demand along with higher economic growth. Those conditions will increase people expectation on inflation. Volatile food inflation is estimated to remain low as production and distribution of food will remain favorable.
is expected to chart higher growth Global economic recovery will produce renewed acceleration in exports. The global economy is predicted to enter an expansionary phase in 2010. Renewed momentum is predicted in the economies of Indonesia’s major trading partners, such as China. This strengthened performance will position exports as one of the main engines of economic growth in 2010. Indonesian exports characteristics which is based on primary commodities has also supported export growth acceleration.
will remain strong Household consumption is forecasted to remain strong. The strengthening global economic outlook for 2010 will given added momentum to Indonesia’s exports, which in turn will produce an overall increase in private incomes. Higher investment will also contribute to rising incomes, thus paving the way for stronger public purchasing power.
BI Rate
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Since December 2008, BI has slashed BI Rate by 300 bps. The monetary relaxation has offered ample support for the economic recovery process and bank intermediation. In the last Board of Governors' Meeting in March 2010, Bank Indonesia has decided to keep the BI Rate unchanged at 6.5%. Following an evaluation of the economy in 2009 and deliberation of the future economic outlook, The Board of Governors believes that the monetary relaxation brought about by the 300 bps decline in the BI Rate offers ample support for the economic recovery process and bank intermediation. At 6.50%, the BI Rate is also deemed consistent with achievement of the inflation target for 2010, set at 5% 1%.
Source: Bank Indonesia. 12.75% 8.00% 8.75% 6.50% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Sep-05 Jun-06 Mar-07 Dec-07 Sep-08 Jun-09 Mar-10
Inflation in 2010 is forecasted to return to its normal path alongside renewed strength in domestic economic activity and commodity
macroeconomic stability while maintaining a conducive climate for the economy. To enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, BI will encourage systemically important banks (SIBs) to play significant role as market leaders in setting the deposit and credit rates. BI will also encourage banks to continue extending credit to the real sector, without abandoning prudential banking policy.
CPI Inflation Forecasts Inflation Expectation – Consensus Forecast
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Source: Bank Indonesia
4.95.5
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 %, yoy
2009 2010
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Source: Bank Indonesia
The Indonesian banking sector continues to maintain financial stability and show positive performance (as of December 2009):
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Source: Bank Indonesia
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Total Assets (T Rp) 1,693.5 1,986.5 2,310.6 2,352.1 2,354.3 2,388.6 2,534.1 Deposits (T Rp) 1,287.0 1,510.7 1,753.3 1,786.2 1,824.3 1857.3 1973.0
338.0 405.5 430.0 437.0 447.1 460.4 465.9
333.9 438.5 498.6 492.5 515.0 536.2 605.4
615.1 666.7 824.7 856.7 862.1 860.7 901.7 Earning Assets (T Rp) 1,556.2 2,794.0 3,478.6 3,520.4 3,567.0 3607.3 3823.0
832.9 1,045.7 1,353.6 1,342.1 1,368.9 1399.9 1470.8
792.2 1,002.0 1,307.7 1,305.4 1,335.4 1366.1 1437.9
179.0 203.9 166.5 208.1 204.2 182.4 212.1
38.6 46.8 71.9 46.8 58.6 44.8 84.4
342.9 350.2 358.5 374.0 363.3 351.7 346.2
156.8 139.8 213.8 236.9 229.5 252.9 261.5
5.9 5.6 6.6 7.0 7.0 9.6 10.0 Net Interest Income--Cummulated (T Rp) 83.1 96.4 113.1 31.4 63.5 94.6 129.3 Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 20.5 19.3 16.2 17.4 17.0 17.7 17.4 Loans/Earning Assets (%) 53.5 37.4 38.9 38.1 38.4 38.8 38.5 Gross NPL (incl. channeling) (%) 7.0 4.6 3.8 4.5 4.5 4.3 3.8 Gross NPL (excl. channeling) (%) 6.1 4.1 3.2 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.3 Net NPL (incl. channeling) (%) 3.6 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.9 Net NPL (excl. channeling) (%) 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 Return on Assets (%) 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 Net Interest Margin (%) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Ops Expense to Ops Income (%) 86.4 78.8 84.1 82.3 82.2 82.0 81.6 Loan to Deposit Ratio (%) 64.7 69.2 77.2 75.1 75.0 75.4 74.5
130 130 124 123 122 121 121
9,110 9,680 10,936 12,039 12,556 12,652 12,971 Indicator
the adverse impacts of global financial meltdown and has been able to weather the global crisis
mortgage securities
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Source: Bank Indonesia
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Source: Bank Indonesia
Statutory reserve has been adjusted to mitigate systemic liquidity risk. Banks are required to maintain statutory and secondary reserves. Statutory reserves have been lowered to 5.0% for domestic currency (Indonesian Rupiah) plus 2.5% secondary reserves must be pledged in the form of SBI (BI Certificate) and Government Bonds; Statutory reserves for foreign currency are lowered to 1% (previously 3%). Banks have to meet statutory reserve requirements by October 24, 2009 to allow sufficient time for portfolio adjustments; Swap has been extended from 7 days to 1 month; Banks may request foreign exchange to meet their customers’ need against underlying transactions. This allows smooth demand for foreign currencies in the domestic market; Bank Indonesia renewed provision of short-term liquidity facility to provide access for all bank in severe liquidity
collaterals from previously only high quality securities; Bank Indonesia may provide emergency liquidity financing to prevent systemic crisis; Structured products are subject to license from Bank Indonesia; Regulation to enhance quality of risk management has been launched in July 2009. Banks are required to have enhanced risk management processes in 8 risk areas. Bank Indonesia has exercised several regulatory measures to prevent banks from crisis:
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Supervision (BCBS) since April 2009:
SRC);
management, supervisory college, and early warning exercise;
maintenance
accounting standards
Source: Bank Indonesia
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Indonesia’s Balance
Payments (BOP) in Q4-2009 registered a surplus of US$4.0 billion, larger than a surplus of US$3.5 billion in the preceding quarter. Both current account and capital and financial account positively contributed to this surplus. In line with this surplus, the
billion at end
2009 to US$66.1 billion (equivalent to 6.5 months
imports and
external debt service payments) at end of December 2009. The current account in Q4-2009 recorded a more robust US$3.4 billion surplus compared to US$2.2 billion in Q3-2009. This improvement was explained mainly by buoyant exports driven by the ongoing recovery in the global economy and rising prices of some main export commodities.
Overall Balance and Current Account
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Trade Balance: Non-Oil & Gas
Surplus on non-oil and gas trade balance increased in Q4-2009 to US$8.4 billion (Q3-2009: US$6.6 billion surplus). The resurgent export performance was still dominated by resource-based commodities requiring comparatively little imported raw materials, a trend that has kept imports from rising as quickly as exports. After recording negative growth since Q1-2009 (yoy), the non-oil and gas exports in Q4-2009 charted a positive growth of 17.6% (Q3-2009: - 11.1%). Meanwhile, the non-oil and gas import posted a smaller negative growth in Q4-2009 (-8.4%) as compared to Q3-2009 (-24.3%).
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Trade Balance: Oil & Gas
The oil & gas trade balance posted a larger surplus as oil trade balance deficit decreased and gas trade balance raised. The
trade balance deficit decreased in line with imports drop following a seasonal decrease in fuel consumption after Idul Fitri festivities and exports increase on the back of further production of Cepu field and higher oil price. In the meantime, the gas trade balance surplus was larger than Q3-2009 surplus. Gas exports were bolstered by increased volume
LNG exports with Trains 1 and 2 of Tangguh LNG plant entering
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was larger than the deficit in Q3-2009 primarily due to increase in net
transportation and
business services.
deficit
income account was larger due to increased profit transfer by direct investment enterprises and increase payments
surplus
current transfers was slightly increase mainly accounted for by increase in general government receipt of current transfers.
Services, Income, and Current Transfers
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The financial account posted a US$1.4 billion surplus primarily resulted from surplus
direct investment and portfolio investment. Although pressures on international financial markets prompted a drop in foreign investor risk appetite and hence triggered outflow of capital in certain instrument in December 2009, the
portfolio investment surplus still improved in Q4/2009 compared to one quarter earlier. The positive condition
the financial account was attributable to stable domestic macroeconomic conditions and improving global liquidity.
Financial Account
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Financial Account: Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Q4-2009 posted a net inflows
US$962 million, slightly lower than US$987 billion net inflows in Q3-2009. This condition was more accounted for by an increased outflow in oil & gas sector related to cost recovery to foreign contractors. Meanwhile, in line with positive growth
investment (gross fixed capital formation) in GDP, FDI inflows in non-oil and gas sector increased. FDI inflows in this sector were still concentrate in manufacturing sector.
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Financial Account: Foreign Portfolio Investment
Although pressures
international financial markets prompted a drop in foreign investor risk appetite and hence triggered outflow of capital from selling
Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI) in December 2009, the
portfolio investment surplus still improved in Q4-2009 compared to one quarter earlier. Also contributed to this improvement was the direct issuance of corporate bond in global market such as
conducted by PT Adaro Indonesia.
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Financial Account: Foreign Other Investment
Foreign other investment reached a US$0.8 billion surplus
in Q4-2009 compared to a surplus of US$5.4 billion in Q3-2009. During this period, foreign loan disbursement
domestic banks decreased while repayments of other private enterprises increased as scheduled.
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Fiscal policy will be aimed at stimulating economic recovery by providing tax incentives to various sectors and businesses, at promoting private consumption and investment spending, at supporting infrastructure development and enhancing social welfare through specific incentives
sector Energy Incentives
Incentives on General Taxation Fiscal Policy for 2010 to Promote Economic Recovery
Acquisition Revolving Fund and Fund covering 23 projects, lending to investors procuring land
Infrastructure Development and Social Welfare Fiscal Policy for 2010 to Enhance Indonesia’s Competitiveness
Source: Ministry of Finance
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* Realized budget
Public Finances is a fundamental strength of the Indonesian economy; most of Indonesian ratios are strong or stronger than its peers; Fiscal Budget deficit has traditionally been limited and remained contained in 2009. Fiscal Stimulus did not impact much on fiscal deficit in 2009
Budget Deficit / GDP (%) Budget Deficit / GDP 2009* vs. Emerging Markets Countries
(0,1%) (1,6%) (1,3%) (0.9%) (1,8%) (1,6%) (1,4%) (1,2%) (1,0%) (0,8%) (0,6%) (0,4%) (0,2%) 0,0% 2006 2007 2008 2009* (3,2%) (3,7%) (3,8%) (5,7%) (6,3%) (7,7%) (8,0%) (9,1%) (3,0%) (1,6%) (12,0%) (10,0%) (8,0%) (6,0%) (4,0%) (2,0%) 0,0% Indonesia Colombia Brazil Philippines China Thailand Turkey Russia India Vietnam
Source: Ministry of Finance
Assumptions: Growth: 2009: 4,3% and 2010; 5.5% inflation 5% (2009) and 5% (2010) Oil price: $61/b (2009) and $65/b (2010) Budget deficit (2009) 2,5% GDP and (2010) 1.6% GDP Tax to GDP increase from 12.1% (2009) to 12.5% (2010) Ministries Spending and Regional Transfer, each accounted for app 35% Energy Subsidies and interest payment app 20%
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Source: Ministry of Finance.
State Budget 2009 - 2010
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Source: Ministry of Finance.
Rev Budget Realization *) % to Rev budget % to GDP
871.0 866.8 99.5 16.2
870.0 865.7 99.5 16.2
652.0 641.2 98.3 12.0
56.3 45.8 81.3 0.9
218.0 224.5 103.0 4.2
1.0 1.1 110.5 0.0
1,000.8 954.0 95.3 17.9
691.5 645.4 93.3 12.1
314.7 301.6 95.8 5.7
12.2 10.2 83.2 0.2
376.8 343.9 91.3 6.4 eg: Subsidi 158.1 159.5 100.9 3.0
4.2 4.2 100.0 0.1
309.3 308.6 99.8 5.8 0.0
(129.8) (87.2) 67.2
% deficit to GDP (2.4) (1.6)
129.8 125.2 96.4 2.3
142.6 142.6 100.0 2.7
(12.7) (17.4) 136.7
ITEMS 2009 (Realization in IDR Trillion)
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Source: Ministry of Finance.
40
Source: Ministry of Finance.
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Source: Ministry of Finance.
2010 Budget Deficit is proposed at 1.6%; taking into account the confidence in sustainability of government’s financing resources ability
32 33 35 39 47 57 61 67 77 89 85 30 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* Triillion Rp 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
GDP Outstanding Debt Debt ratio to GDP Main financing resources for 2010 financing deficit Rp98 T (US$9.8 bio)
Government bond issuances, net Rp104,4 T (US$ 10.4 bio)
External debt, gross Rp57,6 T (US$ 5.7 bio)
Contingencies' Loan from World Bank, ADB, Japan Samurai and Australia provide a market confident
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Source: Ministry of Finance.
GDP – Outstanding Debt – Debt Ratio to GDP
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Budget 2009 and 2010 (In Trillion of IDR)
The realized target budget deficit in 2009 was is manageable at Rp.87.2 billion or 1.6% of GDP, substantially below the revised target 2009 budget deficit of 2.4% of GDP. Budget deficit in 2010 is projected at Rp.98 billion
Realized 2009 (Preliminary) Budget 2010
866.8 949.7
641.2 742.7
317.6 351.0
214.3 269.5
56.7 57.3
18.1 19.6
224.5 205.4
954.0 1,047.7
645.4 725.2
94.5 106.5
308.6 322.4
(87.2) (98.0) % GDP (1.6) (1.6)
125.2 98.0
Source: Ministry of Finance
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Financing Strategy
(US$9.8bn)
(Sukuk, conventional, GMTN, direct buying, retail, non- tradable bonds)
Bank, ADB, IDB, Japan & France
Bank, ADB, Japan, Australia to provide market confidence Financing Needs Item 2010 Budget (IDR T) Deficit (98.0) Financing: A Total domestic financing 107.9
104.4 B Total Foreign financing (9.9)
24.4
33.2
57.6
governments (8.6)
(58.8) Total financing 98.0
Source: Ministry of Finance
in trillion IDR
2010- Budget % of GDP Total Revenue & Grants 949.7 15.7%
Tax Revenue 742.7 12.3% Non Tax Revenue 207.0 3.4% Expenditure 1,047.7 17.3%
Interest payment 115.6 1.9%
Domestic 77.4 1.3% Foreign 38.2 0.6% 0.0%
Subsidy 154.9 2.6%
0.0%
Primary Balance 17.6 0.0 Overall Balance (deficit) (98.0)
Financing 98.0 1.6% Non Debt 2.4 0.0% Debt 95.6 1.6%
0.0%
Govt Securities (Net) 104.4 1.7%
0.0%
Domestic Official Borrowing 1.00 0.0% External Official Borrowing (Net) (9.8)
Disbursement 57.6 1.0% Program Loan 24.4 0.4% Project Loan 33.2 0.5% On lending (8.6)
Repayment (58.8)
Assumptions:
GDP (trillion) 6,050.1 Growth (%) 5.5 Inflation (%) 5.0 3-mo SBI (% avg) 6.5 Rp / USD (avg) 10,000.0 Oil Price (USD/barrel) 65.0 Oil Lifting (MBCD) 0.965
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Source: Ministry of Finance.
Notes: Central Government Expenditure = Total Expenditure minus Transfer to Regions Debt Service = Principal and Interest Payment GDP 2008 projected based on numbers from BPS * = Preliminary + = GDP Based on numbers from BPS ** = Very Preliminary ++ = GDP Based on Assumption on 2009 Revised Budget *** = Very Very Preliminary
Debt to GDP Ratio Debt Composition
Per Law Number 17/2003 concerning State Budget, stipulated that the growth of debt should not exceed Indonesia economic growth with the following key measures: – Overall Balance (deficit) should be less than 3% of GDP, and – Total Debt to GDP ratio should be less than 60%
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Source: Ministry of Finance. Notes: ^ : Preliminary ^^ : Very Preliminary ^^^ : Very Very Preliminary
50% 50% 53% 53% 48% 53% 50% 50% 47% 47% 52% 47%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2004 2005 2006 2007^ 2008^^ 2009^^^ Domestic Debt External Debt 57% 47% 39% 35% 33% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2004 2005* 2006** 2007*** 2008+ 2009++
2004 2005* 2006** 2007*** 2008+ 2009++ GDP 2,295,826.20 2,774,281.00 3,339,480.00 3,949,321.40 4,954,028.90 5,401,640.30 Debt Outstanding (billion IDR) 1,299,504.02 1,313,294.73 1,302,158.97 1,389,415.00 1,636,740.72 1,589,780.96
653,032.15 658,670.86 693,117.95 737,125.54 783,855.10 836,308.91
646,471.87 654,623.87 609,041.02 652,289.46 852,885.62 753,472.05 Debt to GDP Ratio 56.60% 47.34% 38.99% 35.18% 33.04% 29.43%
28.44% 23.74% 20.76% 18.66% 15.82% 15.48%
28.16% 23.60% 18.24% 16.52% 17.22% 13.95% End of Year
Outstanding as of December 31, 2009 Notes: * = Preliminary ** = Very Preliminary *** = Very Very Preliminary + = GDP Based on numbers from BPS ++ = GDP Based on Assumption on 2009 Revised Budget
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Source: Ministry of Finance.
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
External Debt 52.21 46.65 46.10 47.92 46.92 47.06 42.19 36.71 35.59 34.40 32.52 26.83 21.34 17.06 13.34 10.91 9.61 8.44 6.95 5.06 4.28 3.90 3.78 3.30 1.80 1.24 1.05 0.85 0.68 0.59 1.05 Domestic Debt 61.41 39.20 62.32 42.39 57.74 43.38 38.34 36.32 48.10 55.93 38.49 16.76 25.44 21.03 18.05 17.22 2.45 14.43 17.59 - 8.05
20.50 24.71 -
Promissory Notes to BI
Notes:
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Source: Ministry of Finance.
62 61 59 64 69 69 63 62 62 67 65 71 68 64 73 77 71 71 82 85 83 104
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007+ 2008++ Dec'09+++
Loan Government Securities
[Billion USD ]
+ Preliminary numbers ++ Very preliminary numbers +++ Very very preliminary numbers, as of December, 2009 Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007+ 2008++ Dec'09+++ Loan 47% 47% 48% 47% 47% 49% 47% 43% 42% 45% 38% Government Securities 53% 53% 52% 53% 53% 51% 53% 57% 58% 55% 62% Total Central Government Debt 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
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Source: Ministry of Finance.
Holders of Tradable Domestic Government Securities Developments in the Domestic Market
Source: Ministry of Finance
Yearly issuance schedule publicly available Established primary dealership infrastructure Established benchmark series Active communication with market participants Variety of domestic securities available – T-Bills, fixed rate, floating rate, variable rate, zero coupon, retail bonds and Sukuk (1)
There is an increasing proportion of foreign and non-bank holders of Indonesian Government securities.
51
72.02% 75.07% 66.07% 59.34% 53.60% 43.72% 42.62% 42.48% 25.29% 17.15% 20.82% 24.30% 29.74% 37.71% 37.89% 37.92% 2.69% 7.78% 13.12% 16.36% 16.66% 18.56% 19.49% 19.61%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Jan-10 February 2, 2010
BANK NON BANK OFFSHORE HOLDER
Issuance in the domestic market will be prioritized Issuance of a variety of domestic government securities – Fixed-rate – Variable rate – T-Bills – Zero coupon – Retail bonds – Syariah securities – Sukuk and Retail Sukuk International bonds
Source: Ministry of Finance 1. Redemption and buyback amount subject to change 2. GDS stands for Government Debt Securities (SUN)
Net Issuance Realization as of February 2, 2010
2010 Issuance Program IDR tr 2010 Budget Government Securities Net Financing:
104.4
Redemption + Buyback (1)
(70.54)
Net Realization (February 2, 2010)
26.95
Gross Issuance: 32.45 Coupon GDS (2) 10.8 Retail bonds
2.15 T’bill for Local Govt
0.95 International Sukuk International bonds 18.55 Redemption + Buyback (5.5)
55
Source: Ministry of Finance.
Until February 2, 2010 the Government has issued government securities domestically amounting to IDR13,900,000,000,000.00
in IDR Million Auction Date Series Settlement Date Maturity Coupon WAY/WAP Target Total Bids Total Accepted Bids to Accepted Total 2006 26,875,000 98,850,550 42,578,650 2.32 Total 2007 47,000,000 205,057,495 86,379,695 2.37 Total 2008 54,000,000 150,413,440 82,232,640 1.83 Total 2009 64,190,000 216,620,120 97,756,020 2.22 12-Jan-10 SPN20110113 13-Jan-11
3,805,000 1,100,000 3.46 FR0027 15-Jun-15 9.50% 8.19% 3,781,000 1,450,000 2.61 FR0028 15-Jul-17 10.00% 8.68% 4,222,000 2,700,000 1.56 FR0052 15-Aug-30 10.50% 10.55% 3,067,700 2,250,000 1.36 5,000,000 14,875,700 7,500,000 1.98 19-Jan-10 IFR0003 15-Sep-15 9.25% 8.70% 313,000 55,000 5.69 IFR0005 15-Jan-17 9.00% 9.20% 178,000 105,000 1.70 IFR0006
15-Jan-25 10.25% 10.52% 1,261,000 790,000 1.60 1,000,000 1,868,000 950,000 1.97 26-Jan-10 SPN20110113 13-Jan-11
2,295,000 1,050,000 2.19 FR0031 15-Nov-20 11.00% 9.76% 4,163,000 1,900,000 2.19 FR0040 15-Sep-25 11.00% 10.50% 2,866,000 1,050,000 2.73 FR0050 15-Jul-38 10.50% 10.87% 1,552,000 1,450,000 1.07 5,000,000 10,876,000 5,450,000 2.00 28-Jan-10 5,000,000 14-Jan-10 5,000,000 1,000,000 21-Jan-10 Note: IFR: Islamic Fixed Rate (Sukuk)
56
Source: Ministry of Finance.
By Region
INDO-20 GMTN 1 Rating (S&P I Moody's I Fitch) BB- I Ba2 I BB 2 Size USD 2,000,000,000 3 Coupon 5.875% 4 Pricing Date January 12, 2010 5 Settlement Date January 19, 2010 6 Maturity Date March 13, 2020 7 Issue Format Rule 144A/Reg S 8 Yield when Issued 6.00% 9 Price when Issued 99.044% 10 Spread over US Treasury 227.9 bps 11 US Treasury Yield 3.721%
Europe , 27% USA, 49% Asia, 24%
Retails, 6% Banks, 14% Asset Managers, 69% Insurance & others, 11%
By Investors Type By Region
Source: Ministry of Finance.
57
The government decided to issue Samurai Bonds amounting to JPY35 billion under Private Placement to Qualified Institutional Investor, including Insurance and other Financial Company in Japan.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
58
20 40 60
trillion rupiah
Total 55.91 41.35 53.78 42.39 59.90 44.85 38.31 39.09 48.04 55.93 59.13 16.76 25.44 21.03 18.05 19.06 2.45 14.43 17.59
SR
IFR
1.99
ZC 5.89
1.36
SPN 19.20 2.15
IB
8.43 9.37 17.80 22.35 18.74
ORI 6.19 9.30 13.40 2.71
VR
4.39
FR 24.63 23.39 29.00 37.77 18.41 14.54 11.56 12.80 10.33 10.86 15.07 16.76 25.44 21.03 18.05 18.27 2.45 14.43 17.59
7.36 364.19 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 … 2035 2036 2037 2038
ZCB : Zero Coupon bond SPN : T Bills IFR : Islamic Fixed Rate Bond IB : International Bond ORI : Retail Bond SR : Retail Sukuk VR : Variable Rate Bond FR : Fixed Rate Bond Source: Ministry of Finance.
59
Diversified bondholders Ever-increasing daily transaction Investor base is getting more diversified with the increased ownership by foreign investors. This depicts investor confidence on Indonesia.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
60
522 1,395 2,122 2,549 3,307 5,899 4,235 2,645 3,306 3,776 3,536 3,566 4,277 3,636 3,598 3,530 3,473 3,819 3,018 2,631 2,960
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan '09 Feb'09 Mar'09 Apr'09 Mei'09 Jun'09 Jul'09 Agust'09 Sep'09 Okt'09 Nov'09 Des'09 Jan'10 up to Feb 2' 10
80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 Volume (billion rupiah) - LHS Frequency - RHS 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 [Rp miliar] Total 78,156 87,606 79,834 87,153 93,225 107,997 115,019 115,702 >5 52,294 61,055 55,326 62,930 69,456 76,702 82,922 83,779 2-5 17,243 20,374 18,012 18,999 17,050 21,361 20,792 20,544 0-2 8,619 6,178 6,496 5,223 6,719 9,935 11,304 11,380 Dec-07 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 2-Feb-10 IDR Billion 72,41% 17,76% 9,84% 72,09% 18,08% 9,83%
Dec-07 Dec-08 Mar-09 Banks 268.65 56.2% 258.75 49.2% 279.12 51.1% 272.15 48.96% 261.78 46.14% 255.20 44.38% 255.82 43.97% 254.36 43.72% 251.54 42.62% 250.69 42.48% State Banks - Recap 154.67 32.4% 144.72 27.5% 154.08 28.2% 146.26 26.31% 142.27 25.08% 141.50 24.61% 143.31 24.63% 144.19 24.79% Private Banks - Recap 72.63 15.2% 61.67 11.7% 66.45 12.2% 65.26 11.74% 62.43 11.00% 59.80 10.40% 59.92 10.30% 59.98 10.31% Non Recap Banks 35.37 7.4% 45.17 8.6% 49.36 9.0% 52.83 9.50% 49.87 8.79% 46.94 8.16% 44.71 7.69% 42.40 7.29% Regional Banks 5.97 1.3% 6.50 1.2% 8.45 1.5% 7.04 1.27% 6.43 1.13% 6.05 1.05% 6.17 1.06% 6.02 1.03% Shariah Banks
0.69 0.1% 0.77 0.1% 0.77 0.14% 0.79 0.14% 0.90 0.16% 1.71 0.29% 1.77 0.30% 1.82 0.31% 1.82 0.31% Govt Institutions 14.86 3.1% 23.01 4.4% 21.32 3.9% 26.79 4.82% 23.36 4.12% 24.15 4.20% 23.97 4.12% 22.50 3.87% 22.09 3.74% 22.14 3.75% Bank Indonesia 14.86 3.1% 23.01 4.4% 21.32 3.9% 26.79 4.82% 23.36 4.12% 24.15 4.20% 23.97 4.12% 22.50 3.87% 22.09 3.74% 22.14 3.75% Non-Banks 194.24 40.7% 243.93 46.4% 246.22 45.0% 256.96 46.22% 282.22 49.74% 295.62 51.42% 301.97 51.91% 304.89 52.41% 316.51 53.63% 317.32 53.77% Mutual Funds 26.33 5.5% 33.11 6.3% 35.19 6.4% 36.02 6.48% 41.17 7.26% 44.21 7.69% 44.79 7.70% 45.22 7.77% 46.96 7.96% 47.17 7.99% Insurance Company 43.47 9.1% 55.83 10.6% 60.25 11.0% 61.75 11.11% 68.15 12.01% 70.51 12.26% 72.65 12.49% 72.58 12.48% 75.68 12.82% 75.69 12.83% Foreign Holders 78.16 16.4% 87.61 16.7% 79.83 14.6% 87.15 15.68% 93.23 16.43% 101.42 17.64% 104.47 17.96% 108.00 18.56% 115.02 19.49% 115.70 19.61% Pension Fund 25.50 5.3% 32.98 6.3% 34.52 6.3% 34.38 6.18% 36.82 6.49% 37.60 6.54% 38.06 6.54% 37.50 6.45% 37.62 6.37% 37.56 6.36% Securities Company 0.28 0.1% 0.53 0.1% 0.53 0.1% 0.62 0.11% 0.72 0.13% 0.65 0.11% 0.53 0.09% 0.46 0.08% 0.51 0.09% 0.50 0.09% Others 20.50 4.3% 33.87 6.4% 35.89 6.6% 37.04 6.66% 42.13 7.43% 41.23 7.17% 41.47 7.13% 41.12 7.07% 40.73 6.90% 40.69 6.89% Total 477.75 100.0% 525.69 100.0% 546.66 100.0% 555.91 100.00% 567.37 100.00% 574.97 100.00% 581.76 100.00% 581.75 100.00% 590.15 100% 590.15 100% 2-Feb-10 June-09 November-09 September-09 January-10 October-09 December-09
Notes:
Source: Ministry of Finance.
61
5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.50 10.50 11.50 12.50 13.50 14.50 15.50 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y 2 Feb '10 26 Jan '10 Dec '09 Oct '09 Aug '09 Feb '09 [in percentage]
Tenor 2-Feb-10 26-Jan-10 31-Dec-09 Oct '09 Aug '09 Feb '09 1Y 6.92 6.92 6.14 6.50 7.04 11.15 2Y 7.67 7.64 7.11 7.83 8.04 11.77 3Y 7.92 7.97 7.89 8.63 8.74 11.97 4Y 8.16 8.17 8.44 9.11 9.27 12.32 5Y 8.48 8.57 8.80 9.22 9.47 12.91 6Y 8.74 8.86 9.06 9.46 9.87 12.95 7Y 9.03 9.13 9.24 9.62 9.99 13.42 10Y 9.81 9.76 10.04 10.12 10.48 13.56 15Y 10.46 10.48 10.64 10.61 11.16 14.34 20Y 10.63 10.61 10.72 10.70 11.34 14.38 30Y 10.77 10.82 10.97 10.93 11.76 14.56 Source: IDMA, Bloomberg
62
GOVERNMENT DEBT SECURITIES (GDS) Dec '07 Mar '08 Jun '08 Sep '08 Dec '08 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 02-Feb-10
IDR 14,669 IDR 24,219 IDR 24,273 IDR 27,280 IDR 21,503 IDR 33,003 IDR 31,673 IDR 34,263 IDR 36,263 IDR 33,501 IDR 33,475 IDR 32,186 IDR 33,386 IDR 33,386 IDR 33,386 IDR 30,036 IDR 30,036
IDR 4,169 IDR 4,169 IDR 5,250 IDR 10,012 IDR 10,012 IDR 21,512 IDR 20,212 IDR 22,812 IDR 24,812 IDR 22,050 IDR 22,050 IDR 23,500 IDR 24,700 IDR 24,700 IDR 24,700 IDR 21,350 IDR 21,350
IDR 10,500 IDR 20,050 IDR 19,023 IDR 17,268 IDR 11,491 IDR 11,491 IDR 11,461 IDR 11,451 IDR 11,451 IDR 11,451 IDR 11,425 IDR 8,686 IDR 8,686 IDR 8,686 IDR 8,686 IDR 8,686 IDR 8,686 Government Domestic Bonds
IDR 294,453 IDR 313,258 IDR 330,338 IDR 354,948 IDR 353,558 IDR 357,468 IDR 362,998 IDR 371,031 IDR 361,625 IDR 366,561 IDR 377,763 IDR 381,639 IDR 387,839 IDR 393,553 IDR 393,543 IDR 404,343 IDR 404,343
IDR 168,625 IDR 160,927 IDR 165,617 IDR 154,772 IDR 145,934 IDR 145,931 IDR 145,931 IDR 145,083 IDR 145,083 IDR 143,286 IDR 143,286 IDR 143,286 IDR 143,286 IDR 143,286 IDR 143,286 IDR 143,286 IDR 143,286
IDR 477,747 IDR 498,404 IDR 520,228 IDR 537,000 IDR 520,995 IDR 536,402 IDR 540,602 IDR 550,377 IDR 542,971 IDR 543,348 IDR 554,524 IDR 557,111 IDR 564,511 IDR 570,225 IDR 570,215 IDR 577,665 IDR 577,665
IDR 259,404 IDR 258,817 IDR 258,208 IDR 258,208 IDR 258,160 IDR 257,480 IDR 256,980 IDR 256,980 IDR 253,724 IDR 253,724 IDR 252,484 IDR 252,484 IDR 252,484 IDR 252,484 IDR 251,875 IDR 251,875 IDR 251,192
IDR 737,151 IDR 757,221 IDR 778,436 IDR 795,209 IDR 779,155 IDR 793,882 IDR 797,582 IDR 807,357 IDR 796,695 IDR 797,072 IDR 807,008 IDR 809,595 IDR 816,995 IDR 822,709 IDR 822,090 IDR 829,540 IDR 828,857
USD 7,000 USD 9,000 USD 11,200 USD 11,200 USD 11,200 USD 14,200 USD 14,200 USD 14,200 USD 14,200 USD 14,200 USD 14,200 USD 14,200 USD 14,200 USD 14,200 USD 14,200 USD 16,200 USD 16,200 35,000 ¥ 35,000 ¥ 35,000 ¥ 35,000 ¥ 35,000 ¥ 35,000 ¥ 35,000 ¥ 35,000 ¥
IDR 803,084 IDR 840,174 IDR 881,756 IDR 900,242 IDR 901,795 IDR 958,247 IDR 949,707 IDR 949,911 IDR 941,890 IDR 941,580 IDR 953,658 IDR 950,838 IDR 956,193 IDR 961,152 IDR 959,130 IDR 984,897 IDR 984,261 GOVERNMENT ISLAMIC DEBT SECURITIES (GIDS) Government Domestic Islamic Bonds
IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 4,900 IDR 5,977 IDR 5,977 IDR 6,927 IDR 6,927 Government International Islamic Bonds
USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650
IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 4,700 IDR 11,663 IDR 11,225 IDR 11,346 IDR 11,148 IDR 11,239 IDR 10,992 IDR 11,104 IDR 12,139 IDR 12,087 IDR 12,923 IDR 12,923
IDR 803,084 IDR 840,174 IDR 881,756 IDR 904,942 IDR 906,495 IDR 968,503 IDR 966,926 IDR 966,692 IDR 961,478 IDR 960,970 IDR 973,138 IDR 970,072 IDR 975,539 IDR 981,532 IDR 979,458 IDR 1,006,062 IDR 1,005,426 Notes:
IDR 18,885 IDR 32,070 IDR 34,699 IDR 34,699 IDR 34,699 IDR 34,699 IDR 34,699 IDR 34,699 IDR 34,699 IDR 40,175 IDR 40,149 IDR 40,149 IDR 40,149 IDR 40,149 IDR 40,149 IDR 40,149
IDR 5,556 IDR 5,556 IDR 5,556 IDR 5,556 IDR 5,556 IDR 5,556 IDR 5,556 IDR 5,556 IDR 5,556 IDR 5,556 IDR 5,556 IDR 5,556
IDR 2,686 IDR 2,686 IDR 2,686 IDR 2,686 IDR 2,686 IDR 2,686 IDR 2,686 IDR 2,686 IDR 2,686
(e.o Dec 2007) (30 Jun '08) (26 Sep '08) (31 Dec '08) (31 Mar '09) (30 Apr '09) (31 May '09) (30 Jun '09) (31 Jul '09) (31 Aug '09) (30 Sep '09) (31 Oct '09) (30 Nov '09) (31 Dec '09) (3 Jan '10) (2 Feb '10)
IDR 9,419 IDR 9,217 IDR 9,225 IDR 9,378 IDR 10,950 IDR 11,575 IDR 10,713 IDR 10,039 IDR 10,225 IDR 9,920 IDR 10,060 IDR 9,681 IDR 9,545 IDR 9,480 IDR 9,400 IDR 9,365 IDR 9,370
IDR 104.12 IDR 108.50 IDR 107.79 IDR 104.54 IDR 109.33 IDR 101.70 IDR 104.11 IDR 103.15
Source: Ministry of Finance.
63
matured in 2008, Rp6.1 trillion matured in 2009, Rp1.5 trillion matured in 2010 and Rp2.3 trillion matured in 2011
2027
2023
2024
Series Maturity Date Offer Received
1)
Offer Awarded
1)
Series Maturity Date WAY Total 2005 2006 - 2009 7,721 5,673 FR0031 15-Nov-20 14.46523% Total 2006 13 Auction 54,177 31,179 Total 2007 9 Auctions 30,681 15,782 Total 2008 2 Auctions 7,490 4,571 Total 2009 6 Auctions 8,294.369 2,908.03 Auction Date Settlement Date
Notes:
Source: Ministry of Finance.
64
In 2006, the government did not use cash to purchase or redeem any government bonds. In 2007, the government resumed the purchase of government bonds, purchasing Rp 1.7 trillion in August and Rp1.2 trillion in December. In 2008, the government resumed the purchase of government bonds, purchasing Rp 2.0 trillion in April and Rp 41 bio in October and Rp327 bio In November In 2009, the government resumed the purchase of government bonds, purchasing Rp 8.518 trillion in March
Source: Ministry of Finance.
65
Source: Bank Indonesia.
66
Note :
*) Preliminary
Excluding SBI, government bonds, and domestic securities owned by non -resident Thousand of USD rate at end of period
67
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Notes :
1 Consist of SBIs USD4700,22 million and Government Bonds USD11309,01 million
*) Preliminary Figures
In millions of USD
*) preliminary figures
68
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Period Government Debt Private Debt Total 2002 5.009 11.941 16.950 2003 4.000 11.669 15.669 2004 6.197 12.571 18.768 2005 5.448 15.722 21.170 2006 14.091 21.271 35.362 2007 6.367 25.082 31.450 2008 6.380 33.781 40.161 Q1 1.012 8.030 9.043 Q2 2.088 8.419 10.507 Q3 1.031 8.313 9.344 Q4 2.247 9.020 11.267 2009 6.724 30.245 36.969 Q1 992 7.199 8.191 Q2 2.298 6.747 9.045 Q3 998 7.159 8.157 Q4 2.436 9.140 11.577
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
70
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
71
72
Source: Ministry of Finance - Directorate General of Budgetary Affairs
CREATE ENERGY RESILIENCY THROUGH LARGE SCALE DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRICITY POWER
ENHANCE INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH VARIOUS MEGA PROJECTS
DEVELOP COMMUNITY HOUSING
73
REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT TO 5-6 PERCENT
REDUCE POVERTY TO 8-10 PERCENT
and other community with social welfare problem
MINIMUM 7 PERCENT OF GROWTH
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
74
Government Support on Public-Private Partnership Projects Increasing Efficiency and Effectiveness of Government’s Projects
Infrastructure Fund (PT. Sarana Multi Infrastruktur) Risk Management Unit at the Ministry of Finance Guarantee Fund (PT. Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia) Land Revolving Fund and Land Capping Facility Land Freezing and Independent Land Appraisal Project Development Facility to increase FS quality Doing Business in Infrastructure Guidelines Increase Government Budget Multi-years budget on Priority Projects Implementing Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF)
Regulation and Policy Reform
Infrastructure Road Map 2005-2009 (harmonized with medium-term development plan) Restructuring Sectors (Separation of Regulator and Operator) Sector’s New Regulation Derived Regulations from the new sector regulation E-Procurement to accelerate contract
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
75
2.4 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.1
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
76
Public Works Dept. Transportation Dept. Energy and Mineral Dept. Community Housing Dept. Maritime and Fishery Dept. Manpower and Transmigration Dept. Health Dept. Trade Dept. Small and Medium Bussinesses Dept. Agriculture Dept.
0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
35.33% 30.83% 34.83% 41.35% 19.63% 14.17% 59.42% 13.20% 20.82% 0.00%
Source: Dirjen Treasury, MoF, 2009
Total: 31.46%
77
36,897 14,648 8,877 1,817 1,506 1,805
65,550
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 PU Dephub Menpera DKP Depdag Menkop dan UKM Jumlah PU Dephub Menpera DKP Depdag Menkop dan UKM Jumlah
Up to August 2009, The Infrastructure Sector’s Fiscal Stimulus already absorbs 65.550 workers (Bappenas)
Source: Bappenas
78
Land Capping; Government support is valued at USD 4.89 T for the risk of land price increases in the construction of toll roads 28 to be absorbed until 2010. Until 2009, funds have been allocated land Capping a total of USD 1.5 T, and absorption in the year 2008 reached USD 264.94 M while the year 2009 reached USD 178.42 M used in the Bogor Ring Road, Semarang - Solo, and Cinere-Jagorawi; Ministry of Public Works proposed an extension of the Land Capping until 2013 because of sluggish in the process of land acquisition Land Revolving Fund; It is a revolving fund with a total value of USD $ 1:44 T lent to investors as a bailout fund for land acquisition in 23 toll roads. To date, USD 800 M has been allocated, and USD 647 M has been disbursed. Land Freezing (Head of BPN Regulation no. 3 / 2007); Land that has been set by the government for use in the project are not allowed to be traded unless there is consent from the Governor / Regent /
process of land acquisition in some toll roads.
79
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Tahap 1 Tahap 2 Tahap 3 Tahap 4
Pemerintah Pusat
Kawasan Kerjasama
Lampiran III : Kesepakatan Bersama Nomor : Tanggal : 6 Desember 2006 Tentang : Pembangunan Infrastruktur Jalan untuk Mendukung Area Industri di Cikarang – Bekasi
2 3 5 13 7 15 9A 9B 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 21 22
19 8 20 1 6 18 Transportation Infrastructure Agreement with the central, provincial, district and industrial zone owners to handle the transportation facility in Cikarang Industrial area which is the origin of 40 percent of Indonesian non-oil exports Tanjung Priok Access Toll Road Construction is on progress from JICA loan funds, when it is operated will be submitted to the toll road business
80
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Note : 2009*) Realization Estimate
Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
82
83
Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 *) TOTAL 9,528.55 11,850.53 14,371.67 15,752.53 19,939.38 19,765.27 Mineral, Coal&Geothermal 1,055.21 944.31 1,456.12 1,252.81 1,654.51 1,812.25 Electricity 2,553.75 2,637.55 3,252.99 3,320.06 4,759.90 5,768.20 Oil & Gas 5,919.59 8,268.67 9,662.56 11,179.66 13,524.97 12,184.82
Million US$
Note : 2009*) Realization Estimate
200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1.000
YEAR
Million USD 10 20 30 40 50 60 Firm commitment 136 23 141 196 85 231 639 941 2392 New contract signed 6 1 15 16 8 5 27 34 112 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Contract signed
84
Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
85
Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
50 100 150 200 250 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*) TOTAL 62.49 113.91 98.11 121.14 224.74 93.08 Electricity 3.31 10.56 33.9 37.48 60.29 47.55 Fuel product & LPG 59.18 103.35 64.21 83.79 139.03 45.53
Trillion Rupiah
Note : 2009*) Realization Estimate
86
Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* Thousand Kiloliter
Note : 2009*) Temporary Data
87
Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*) TOTAL 4,098.47 4,284.58 4,689.09 4,820.03 5,038.42 5,303.60 Coal 1,522.95 1,757.35 2,229.58 2,496.18 2,635.07 2,922.74 Natural Gas 1,478.11 1,468.37 1,453.89 1,369.47 1,419.74 1,431.59 Oil 1,097.41 1,058.86 1,005.61 954.38 983.61 949.26 Thousand BOEPD
Note : 2009*) Temporary Data
88
Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
89
TWh Jawa Madura Bali Outside Jawa Madura Bali Indonesia 100 200 300 400 500 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Year
Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources