Rafael Popper Scientific Director & Project Leader University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Rafael Popper

Scientific Director & Project Leader University of Manchester

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

www.iknowfutures.eu

horizon scanning 2.0

Aim

• To elucidate and examine events and developments potentially shaping or shaking

the future of science, technology and innovation in the Europe and the world

Objectives

• To develop and pilot conceptual and methodological frameworks

– to identify, classify, cluster & analyse wild cards & weak signals (WI-WE)

• To assess selected WI-WE’s

– implications for, and expected impact on

• science, technology and innovation (STI)

– relevance for key dimensions of European research & technology development:

• Researchers mobility
• Research infrastructures
• Research institutions
• Knowledge sharing
• Joint Programming (research programmes and priorities)
• International S&T cooperation

About iKNOW

horizon scanning 2.0

WP8: Developing and piloting tools and applications (iKnow Multi-Module Web-Environment & Community)

• Wi-We Bank: using Web 2.0 approaches and tools
• Wi-We Scan: WI-WE scanning & search system

(including WI-WE clustering and visualisation)

T I M E

WP 3 Characterisation of WI-WE WI-WE Bank WP5: National & Regional views Four country surveys (2 FP7 themes per country, implications on 6 ERA dimensions) WP6: National Multi-Method Workshops month 1 month 30 WP7: writing case studies WI-WE Bulletins FP7 Themes ERA Dimensions

Thematic areas Researchers Research Infrastructures Research Institutions Knowledge Sharing Research Progr. & Prior. Internationalisation

FI UK CZ GE CZ FI GE UK WP9: Disseminating & Interconnecting Knowledge

WP1 C O O R D I N A T I O N & M A N A G E M E N T

IL month 15 WP2: State of the art, literature review on Weak Signals and Wild Cards (WI-WE) WP4: EU & International views 1 Cross-national Delphi survey 50 (telephone) interviews

logic

(WI) Wild Cards – situations/events with perceived low probability of occurrence but potentially high impact if they were to

• ccur.

(WE) Weak Signals – unclear observables warning us about the probability of future events (including Wild Cards). They implore us to consider alternative interpretations of an issue’s evolution to gauge its potential impact.

DESIRABLE MIXED/ UNCERTAIN UNDESIRABLE WI-WE can be…

What are we scanning?

horizon scanning 2.0

information collection (1/5)

• ILTD

Inward-Looking Top-Down

» 6 iKNOW Consortium » Over 2,000 EU-funded research projects

• OLBU

Outward-Looking Bottom-Up

» iKNOW Community (Policy-makers; Decision- makers, Researchers and Foresight practitioners » Different knowledge sources

• ILBU

Inward-Looking Bottom-Up

• OLTD

Outward-Looking Top-Down

horizon scanning 2.0

information collection (2/5)

1. iKNOW Consortium (ILTD scanning) 2. iKNOW Community (OLBU scanning) 3. Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library) 4. Interviews – S&T experts, ERA experts, Foresighters 5. Workshops (UK, FI, CZ, GE, BE, …) 6. Surveys (e.g. OII’s Future Internet Delphi) 7. WI-WE Delphi Survey 8. Mapping Foresight Environment – European Foresight Platform (former EFMN)

horizon scanning 2.0

Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)

horizon scanning 2.0

1

Type of event

Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)

horizon scanning 2.0

2

Characterization

Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)

horizon scanning 2.0

3

Systems + Desirability

Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)

horizon scanning 2.0

4

importance

information collection (3/5) Interviews

• Foresight
• S&T
• ERA

How many?

• around 50

horizon scanning 2.0

information collection (4/5) iKNOW workshops

Thematic experts

• Peter Ellwood (UK)
• Fiona Lickorish (UK)
• John Reynolds (UK)
• John Turnpenny (UK)
• Martin Fatun (CZ)

A facilitator

• Yanuar Nugroho (UK)

A rapporteur

• David Cain (UK)

A supervisor

• Rafael Popper (UK)

horizon scanning 2.0

information collection (5/5) iKNOW workshops

18 to 20 ‘wild’ situations

• Wild features / factors
• Interpretations
• Impacts
• Actors
• Actions*
• (Weak) Signals

Actions / Recommendations

• Policy
• Business
• Research

horizon scanning 2.0

MPs ‘fraudulent’ claims (e.g. an adult film, mortgages

• n homes that relatives live in, paying too much to

relatives from public funds, etc) Media Frenzy: MPs' expenses making headlines for nearly two years

Ac 2 i 1

national european global

• i 2

i 3

• E

G D S L P i E

F 1 F 2 F 3 F 4

im 1 im 2

• Ac 1
• !

! ! !

national european

A 1 A 2 A 3 F 1 F 2 F 3

Leaked information (CD): expenses claims were published by the Daily Telegraph Freedom of Information campaigners won a High Court case to get MPs claims released after years of battling Commons authorities

i 1

Complete and meaningful reform need 387 recommendations in BBC’s Have Your Say on MP expenses 50% of MPs are corrupt 316 recommendations in BBC’s Have Your Say on MP expenses

Ac 1

Sir Thomas Legg’s audit of MPs' expenses

Ac 2

The Director of Public Prosecutions announces that 3 MPs and 1 peer will face criminal charges over their expense claims

im 1

Public distrust in MPs has mounted

F 4 i 3

Sir Thomas Legg’s interpretation: "vague rules" and a "culture of deference" surrounds MPs' expenses

i 2 A 1

Freedom of Information campaigners

A 3

High Court

im 2

New rules for MP expenses

A 4 A 2

MPS Daily Telegraph / Media

A 4

methodological filters 2009 Space

blogs social networks interviews interviews Etc. scientific journals

2010 Space

horizon scanning 2.0

children workshops ? blogs

knowledge filters

horizon scanning 2.0

intuitive logical unfamiliar common sense critical prospective strategic familiar knowledgeable expert

interviews research projects expert workshops surveys media science fiction ? social networks

iKNOW sources

books journal articles

manifestation & perception filters

horizon scanning 2.0

information retrieval filters

horizon scanning 2.0 keyword + issue type

filters

inspired by (source) + related to (impact)

filters

re-emerging continuation discontinuation future emerging / new

WI WI WI

issues issues issues issues past resolution

WI

issues

interpretation

WE WE WE WE WE

assessment level of uncertainty

WI WI WI WI

cognitive filters

horizon scanning 2.0

Interpretations are really important

McArthur's Universal Corrective Map of the World South North

• riginality / importance / impact filters

horizon scanning 2.0

1 2 3 4 5 SSH-25 SSH-24 SSH-23 SSH-22 SSH-21 SSH-20 SSH-19 SSH-18 SSH-17 SSH-16 SSH-15 SSH-14 SSH-13 SSH-12 SSH-11 SSH-10 SSH-09 SSH-08 SSH-07 SSH-06 SSH-05 SSH-04 SSH-03 SSH-02 SSH-01 3.8 3.0 1.8 3.7 2.7 3.2 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.8 3.1 2.6 4.6 3.1 2.3 2.8 2.1 2.6 2.9 2.8 4.0 3.3 2.6 1.9 3.4

Originality

1 2 3 4 SSH-25 SSH-24 SSH-23 SSH-22 SSH-21 SSH-20 SSH-19 SSH-18 SSH-17 SSH-16 SSH-15 SSH-14 SSH-13 SSH-12 SSH-11 SSH-10 SSH-09 SSH-08 SSH-07 SSH-06 SSH-05 SSH-04 SSH-03 SSH-02 SSH-01 2.8 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.9 2.2 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.6 1.6 1.4 3.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.6 2.2

Importance for Europe

2 4 6 8 10 12 SSH-25 SSH-24 SSH-23 SSH-22 SSH-21 SSH-20 SSH-19 SSH-18 SSH-17 SSH-16 SSH-15 SSH-14 SSH-13 SSH-12 SSH-11 SSH-10 SSH-09 SSH-08 SSH-07 SSH-06 SSH-05 SSH-04 SSH-03 SSH-02 SSH-01 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.7 1.3 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.3 1.9 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.4 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.3 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 1.0 0.4 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7

Impacts of iKNOW SSH Wild Cards infrastructures people’s lives legislation & regulation economy & business defence & security governance & politics environment & ecosystems science & technology

SSH-02: Pay as you pollute (Individual and collective trade of pollution credits) SSH-06: Major EU state elects neo fascist leader

• riginality / importance / impact filters

horizon scanning 2.0

infrastructures people’s lives legislation & regulation economy & business defence & security governance & politics environment & ecosystems science & technology

infrastructures people’s lives legislation & regulation economy & business defence & security governance & politics environment & ecosystems science & technology

infrastructures people’s lives legislation & regulation economy & business defence & security governance & politics environment & ecosystems science & technology

SSH ENV NANO

expert opinion filters

horizon scanning 2.0

Delphi

Likelihood + Importance + Impact + Desirability + Wildness + RTD Strategies + Signals (existing & future)

…the changing world of…

• infrastructures (physical & virtual)
• People’s lives (social interactions, health & safety)
• Legislation & regulation
• Economy & business
• Defence & security
• Government & politics
• Environment & ecosystems
• Science & technology (knowledge dynamics)

WI-WE analysis can help us understand…

A changing world

infrastructures

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

?

A changing world

People’s lives

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

A changing world

Legislation and regulation

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

Patents

A changing world

Economy and business

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

A changing world

Defence and Security

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

A changing world

Government and Politics

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

Cold War

From 6 in 1950s …to 27 in 2007 …?

A changing world

Environment & ecosystems

Global Warming Continental drift

A changing world

Science & technology (knowledge dynamics)

Exploration S&T Innovation

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

Penicillin

communication (1/7)

horizon scanning 2.0 top Wi keywords top We keywords top Wi-We keywords

communication (2/7)

horizon scanning 2.0 new face

communication (3/7)

horizon scanning 2.0 rating favorites

+

private notes

+

user profile stats

+

quick / easy / advance scan

+

newsletters

+

and more!

communication (4/7)

horizon scanning 2.0 type of issue

+

theme

+

• ccurrence/impact

+

headline/title

+

date of creation

+

progress status

communication (5/7)

horizon scanning 2.0

communication (6/7)

horizon scanning 2.0

communication (7/7)

horizon scanning 2.0

1 Water security / vulnerability 2 Energy security / vulnerability 3 Diseases / health and well being 4 Sustainability / turbulence / resilience 5 Ageing / youth and demographic tension 6 Food security / diet & culture 7 Globalization vs. localization 8 Social cohesion / alienation 9 Techno security / hazard & risk 10 Behavioural change / inertia 11 Knowledge and technology sharing / asymmetry 12 Work-Life balance / mental health 13 Ethics/abuse of future S&T developments 14 Crime & corruption/justice & transparency 15 Governance and democracy / Citizens' trust in governments 16 Coexistence / conflict 17 Social pathologies / norms 18 Social exclusion / Poverty & affluence 19 Prosperity/economic & political stability 20 Urbanization / counter-urbanization

Problem- and Solution-oriented focused on Grand Challenges

exploitation

horizon scanning 2.0 imaginary call for proposals The main contribution is HOW not WHAT

prototype

interconnecting knowledge (convergence-interdisciplinary) new research questions new research agendas impact on Grand Challenges identification of problems identification of solutions relevance to EU research sense-making pattern recognition emerging issues informing policy possible futures

www.iknowfutures.eu

"# "# "# "# $% $% $% $% %%&'(" %%&'(" %%&'(" %%&'("