rts t t rsss - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

❍✉♠❛♥ ❋r✐❝t✐♦♥s t♦ t❤❡ ❚r❛♥s♠✐ss✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ P♦❧✐❝② ❋r❛♥❝❡s❝♦ ❉✬❆❝✉♥t♦ ❇♦st♦♥ ❈♦❧❧❡❣❡ ❉❛♥✐❡❧ ❍♦❛♥❣ ❑❛r❧sr✉❤❡ ■♥st✐t✉t❡ ♦❢ ❚❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣② ▼❛r✐tt❛ P❛❧♦✈✐✐t❛ ❇❛♥❦ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❧❛♥❞ ▼✐❝❤❛❡❧ ❲❡❜❡r ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ❈❤✐❝❛❣♦ ❛♥❞ ◆❇❊❘ ❏✉♥❡ ✺✱ ✷✵✶✾

❙t②❧✐③❡❞ ❋❛❝t ■✿ ❑❛s❤②❛♣ P✉③③❧❡ Short-term Inflation Expectations Long-term Inflation Expectations House Price Expectations 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 Male Female Male Female Male Female Expect Higher Stock Prices Perception Own Fin. Situation Expect Higher US Gov't Debt 50 28 ❙♦✉r❝❡ ✿ ◆❡✇ ❨♦r❦ ❋❡❞ ❙✉r✈❡② ♦❢ ❈♦♥s✉♠❡r ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s .2 26 ✏❯♥❧❡ss s♦♠❡♦♥❡ ❝❛♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ t♦ ♠❡ ✇❤② ✇♦♠❡♥ ❛❧✇❛②s ❤❛✈❡ ❤✐❣❤❡r 45 24 .16 ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✳✳✳✑ ❑❛s❤②❛♣ ✭✷✵✶✺✮ 22 40 .12 20 .08 35 18 Male Female Male Female Male Female

❙t②❧✐③❡❞ ❋❛❝t ■■✿ ❈r♦ss✲s❡❝t✐♦♥❛❧ ❉✐s♣❡rs✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s Numerical Inflation Expectations 12 months .25 .2 .15 Density .1 .05 0 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 ❙♦✉r❝❡ ✿ ◆❡✇ ❨♦r❦ ❋❡❞ ❙✉r✈❡② ♦❢ ❈♦♥s✉♠❡r ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ▲❛r❣❡ ❝r♦ss✲s❡❝t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐♦♥ ✐♥ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❉❡s♣✐t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ t❛r❣❡t ♦❢ ✷✪ ❛♥❞ r❡❛❧✐③❡❞ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❜❡❧♦✇ ✷✪

❙t②❧✐③❡❞ ❋❛❝t ■■■✿ ❈r♦ss✲s❡❝t✐♦♥❛❧ ❉✐s♣❡rs✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❘❡❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥s ❙♦✉r❝❡ ✿ ❑❛♣❧❛♥ ✫ ❙❝❤✉❧❤♦❢❡r✲❲♦❤❧ ✭❏▼❊✱ ✷✵✶✼✮ ▲❛r❣❡ ❝r♦ss✲s❡❝t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐♦♥ ✐♥ r❡❛❧✐③❡❞ s❤♦♣♣✐♥❣✲❜✉♥❞❧❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ■♥t❡rq✉❛rt✐❧❡ r❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ✻✳✼ ♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ♣♦✐♥ts ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ✐♥ ♣r✐❝❡ ♣❛✐❞ ❞r✐✈❡ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐♦♥✱ ♥♦t ❣♦♦❞s ♣✉r❝❤❛s❡❞

❙❤♦♣♣✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❑❛s❤②❛♣ P✉③③❧❡ ❙♦✉r❝❡ ✿ ❉✬❆❝✉♥t♦✱ ▼❛❧♠❡♥❞✐❡r✱ ❲❡❜❡r ✭✷✵✶✾✮ ▲❛r❣❡ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❜② ❣❡♥❞❡r ✇✐t❤✐♥ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞ ❯♥❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❞r✐✈❡♥ ❜② ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ✐♥ ❣r♦❝❡r② s❤♦♣♣✐♥❣

❖❜s❡r✈❡❞ Pr✐❝❡ ❈❤❛♥❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❊①♣❡❝t❡❞ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ Inflation Expectations by bins of Household CPI 5 Average Inflation Expectations 12 months 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ❙♦✉r❝❡ ✿ ❉✬❆❝✉♥t♦✱ ▼❛❧♠❡♥❞✐❡r✱ ❖s♣✐♥❛✱ ❲❡❜❡r ✭✷✵✶✾✮ ❙♦rt ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ✐♥t♦ ❜✐♥s ❜② ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞ ❈P■ ❢r♦♠ ❧♦✇ t♦ ❤✐❣❤ ❍✐❣❤✲❧♦✇ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦✿ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✵✳✺ ♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ♣♦✐♥ts ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝❛❧❧② s✐③❡❛❜❧❡ ❣✐✈❡♥ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ t❛r❣❡t ♦❢ ✷✪

❋❡❞ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❚❛r❣❡t ❙♦✉r❝❡ ✿ ❈♦✐❜✐♦♥✱ ●♦r♦❞♥✐❝❤❡♥❦♦✱ ❲❡❜❡r ✭✷✵✶✾✮ ❖♥❧② ✺✵✪ t❤✐♥❦ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ t❛r❣❡t ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✵✪ ❛♥❞ ✺✪ ✹✵✪ t❤✐♥❦s ❋❡❞ ❤❛s ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ t❛r❣❡t > = ✶✵✪

❋♦r❡❝❛st ❘❡✈✐s✐♦♥s E post π − E pre π = a + b × Treatment i + β X i + error i i i ❚r❡❛t♠❡♥ts ■♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡ r❡✈✐s✐♦♥ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ P♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❣r♦✇t❤ − ✵ . ✷✷✹ ∗ − ✵ . ✷✼✶ ∗ ∗ ( ✵ . ✶✶✻ ) ( ✵ . ✶✷✵ ) P❛st ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ✭✷✳✸✪✮ − ✶ . ✶✼✵ ∗∗∗− ✶ . ✷✹✶ ∗∗∗ ( ✵ . ✶✶✹ ) ( ✵ . ✶✷✵ ) ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❚❛r❣❡t − ✶ . ✵✽✼ ∗∗∗− ✶ . ✶✸✵ ∗∗∗ ( ✵ . ✶✶✸ ) ( ✵ . ✶✷✵ ) ❋❡❞ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ✭✶✳✾✪✮ − ✶ . ✶✻✻ ∗∗∗− ✶ . ✷✹✵ ∗∗∗ ( ✵ . ✶✶✸ ) ( ✵ . ✶✷✵ ) ❋❖▼❈ st❛t❡♠❡♥t − ✶ . ✷✽✹ ∗∗∗− ✶ . ✷✾✽ ∗∗∗ ( ✵ . ✶✶✸ ) ( ✵ . ✶✶✾ ) ❯❙❆ t♦❞❛② ❝♦✈❡r❛❣❡ − ✵ . ✹✻✾ ∗∗∗− ✵ . ✺✺✺ ∗∗∗ ( ✵ . ✶✶✻ ) ( ✵ . ✶✷✶ ) ❯♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥t − ✵ . ✸✹✽ ∗∗∗− ✵ . ✸✺✷ ∗∗∗ ( ✵ . ✶✶✺ ) ( ✵ . ✶✷✶ ) ●❛s Pr✐❝❡ ✶ . ✹✾✵ ∗∗∗ ✶ . ✹✷✵ ∗∗∗ ( ✵ . ✶✷✺ ) ( ✵ . ✶✸✵ ) ❈♦♥tr♦❧s ❢♦r ❞❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ◆♦ ❨❡s ◆♦❜s ✶✾✱✻✺✹ ✶✼✱✾✼✾ ❙♦✉r❝❡ ✿ ❈♦✐❜✐♦♥✱ ●♦r♦❞♥✐❝❤❡♥❦♦✱ ❲❡❜❡r ✭✷✵✶✾✮ ❙tr♦♥❣ ❢♦r❡❝❛st r❡✈✐s✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ▼❡❞✐❛ ❝♦✈❡r❛❣❡ ♦♥❧② ✇❡❛❦ ❡✛❡❝ts

❈♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❙♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 3 3 3 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 / 2 / 3 / 6 / 9 / 2 / 3 / 5 / 8 / 1 / 2 / 5 / 8 / 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 3 3 3 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 / 2 / 3 / 6 / 9 / 2 / 3 / 5 / 8 / 1 / 2 / 5 / 8 / 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 ❙♦✉r❝❡ ✿ ❉✬❆❝✉♥t♦✱ ❍♦❛♥❣✱ ❲❡❜❡r ✭❏▼❊✱ ✷✵✶✾✮ ▲❛r❣❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ♣r❡✲❛♥♥♦✉♥❝❡❞ ❱❆❚ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s ♦♥ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ ❊✛❡❝t tr✉❡ ❛❝r♦ss ♦✈❡r❛❧❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❛❝r♦ss ❝♦✉♥tr✐❡s ❋♦r✇❛r❞ ❣✉✐❞❛♥❝❡ ❛♥♥♦✉♥❝❡♠❡♥t ❞♦ ♥♦t ♠♦✈❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❝❤♦✐❝❡

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥ P♦❧✐❝② ❛ss✉♠❡s ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s ❢✉❧❧② ❋♦r✇❛r❞ ❣✉✐❞❛♥❝❡ ❊❣❣❡rtss♦♥ ✫ ❲♦♦❞❢♦r❞ ✭✷✵✵✸✮ ❯♥❝♦♥✈❡♥t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜s❝❛❧ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ❉✬❆❝✉♥t♦✱ ❍♦❛♥❣✱ ✫ ❲❡❜❡r ✭✷✵✶✽✮ ❈♦♥✈❡♥t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜s❝❛❧ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ❋❛r❤✐ ✫ ❲❡r♥✐♥❣ ✭✷✵✶✼✮ ❇❯❚ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ♦❢t❡♥ ❧❡ss ❡✛❡❝t✐✈❡✿ ❡✳❣✳✱ ❢♦r✇❛r❞ ❣✉✐❞❛♥❝❡ ♣✉③③❧❡ ❉❡❧ ◆❡❣r♦✱ ●✐❛♥♥♦♥✐✱ ✫ P❛tt❡rs♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✺✮ ❘❡❝❡♥t t❤❡♦r② ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✿ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❛❣❡♥ts ✫ ✉♥✐♥s✉r❛❜❧❡ s❤♦❝❦s ▼❝❑❛②✱ ◆❛❦❛♠✉r❛✱ ✫ ❙t❡✐♥ss♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✻✮❀ ❑❛♣❧❛♥✱ ▼♦❧❧✱ ✫ ❱✐♦❧❛♥t❡ ✭✷✵✶✽✮❀ ❍❛❣❡❞♦r♥ ❡t ❛❧ ✭✷✵✶✽✮