rts t t rsss - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
rts t t rsss P rs t st
2 4 6 8 Male Female
Short-term Inflation Expectations
2 4 6 8 Male Female
Long-term Inflation Expectations
2 4 6 8 Male Female
House Price Expectations
35 40 45 50 Male Female
Expect Higher Stock Prices
.08 .12 .16 .2 Male Female
Perception Own Fin. Situation
18 20 22 24 26 28 Male Female
Expect Higher US Gov't Debt
.05 .1 .15 .2 .25 Density
10 20 30 40 50
Numerical Inflation Expectations 12 months
4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 Average Inflation Expectations 12 months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Inflation Expectations by bins of Household CPI
Epost
i
π − Epre
i
π = a + b × Treatmenti + βXi + errori ❚r❡❛t♠❡♥ts ■♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡ r❡✈✐s✐♦♥ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ P♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❣r♦✇t❤ −✵.✷✷✹∗ −✵.✷✼✶ ∗ ∗ (✵.✶✶✻) (✵.✶✷✵) P❛st ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ✭✷✳✸✪✮ −✶.✶✼✵∗∗∗−✶.✷✹✶∗∗∗ (✵.✶✶✹) (✵.✶✷✵) ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❚❛r❣❡t −✶.✵✽✼∗∗∗−✶.✶✸✵∗∗∗ (✵.✶✶✸) (✵.✶✷✵) ❋❡❞ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ✭✶✳✾✪✮ −✶.✶✻✻∗∗∗−✶.✷✹✵∗∗∗ (✵.✶✶✸) (✵.✶✷✵) ❋❖▼❈ st❛t❡♠❡♥t −✶.✷✽✹∗∗∗−✶.✷✾✽∗∗∗ (✵.✶✶✸) (✵.✶✶✾) ❯❙❆ t♦❞❛② ❝♦✈❡r❛❣❡ −✵.✹✻✾∗∗∗−✵.✺✺✺∗∗∗ (✵.✶✶✻) (✵.✶✷✶) ❯♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥t −✵.✸✹✽∗∗∗−✵.✸✺✷∗∗∗ (✵.✶✶✺) (✵.✶✷✶)
✶.✹✾✵∗∗∗ ✶.✹✷✵∗∗∗ (✵.✶✷✺) (✵.✶✸✵) ❈♦♥tr♦❧s ❢♦r ❞❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ◆♦ ❨❡s ◆♦❜s ✶✾✱✻✺✹ ✶✼✱✾✼✾
9 / 5 1 2 / 5 3 / 6 6 / 6 9 / 6 1 2 / 6 3 / 7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 5 / 1 3 8 / 1 3 1 1 / 1 3 2 / 1 4 5 / 1 4 8 / 1 4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 9 / 5 1 2 / 5 3 / 6 6 / 6 9 / 6 1 2 / 6 3 / 7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 5 / 1 3 8 / 1 3 1 1 / 1 3 2 / 1 4 5 / 1 4 8 / 1 4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
❊❣❣❡rtss♦♥ ✫ ❲♦♦❞❢♦r❞ ✭✷✵✵✸✮
❉✬❆❝✉♥t♦✱ ❍♦❛♥❣✱ ✫ ❲❡❜❡r ✭✷✵✶✽✮
❋❛r❤✐ ✫ ❲❡r♥✐♥❣ ✭✷✵✶✼✮
❉❡❧ ◆❡❣r♦✱ ●✐❛♥♥♦♥✐✱ ✫ P❛tt❡rs♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✺✮
▼❝❑❛②✱ ◆❛❦❛♠✉r❛✱ ✫ ❙t❡✐♥ss♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✻✮❀ ❑❛♣❧❛♥✱ ▼♦❧❧✱ ✫ ❱✐♦❧❛♥t❡ ✭✷✵✶✽✮❀ ❍❛❣❡❞♦r♥ ❡t ❛❧ ✭✷✵✶✽✮
❲♦♦❞❢♦r❞ ✭✷✵✶✽✮
2 3 4 5 Mean Absolute Forecast Error 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Normalized IQ
❉❛t❛
❉❛t❛
❉❛t❛
❉❛t❛
❉❛t❛
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Mean Absolute Forecast Error 2 4 6 8 10 Normalized IQ
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Mean Forecast Error 2 4 6 8 10 Normalized IQ
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Mean Forecast Error 2 4 6 8 10 Normalized IQ
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Mean Forecast Error 3 4 5 6 7 8 Education Categories
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Mean Forecast Error 2 4 6 8 10 9 Income Percentiles
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
.4 .5 .6 .7 Fraction Rounders (multiples of 5) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Normalized IQ
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
.05 .1 .15 .2 .25 Fraction Implausible Values (larger than |5|) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Normalized IQ
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 01jan2000 01jan2005 01jan2010 01jan2015 date Mean Perception: High IQ Mean Perception: Low IQ
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
1 2 3 4 Deposit Facility Rate 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 01jan2001 01jul2002 01jan2004 01jul2005 01jan2007
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
1 2 3 4 Deposit Facility Rate 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 Average Propensity Loan 01jan2001 01jul2002 01jan2004 01jul2005 01jan2007
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
1 2 3 4 Deposit Facility Rate 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 Average Propensity Loan 01jan2001 01jul2002 01jan2004 01jul2005 01jan2007
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts
i.tδ + ηt + ǫi,t
❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s
❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s
❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s
❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s
❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s
❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s
❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s
■❧✉t ✫ ❱❛❧❝❤❡✈ ✭✷✵✶✼✮
❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥
❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥