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Sep 21, 2022 151 likes •779 views

rts t t rsss P rs t st

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SLIDE 1

❍✉♠❛♥ ❋r✐❝t✐♦♥s t♦ t❤❡ ❚r❛♥s♠✐ss✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ P♦❧✐❝②

❋r❛♥❝❡s❝♦ ❉✬❆❝✉♥t♦ ❇♦st♦♥ ❈♦❧❧❡❣❡ ❉❛♥✐❡❧ ❍♦❛♥❣ ❑❛r❧sr✉❤❡ ■♥st✐t✉t❡ ♦❢ ❚❡❝❤♥♦❧♦❣② ▼❛r✐tt❛ P❛❧♦✈✐✐t❛ ❇❛♥❦ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❧❛♥❞ ▼✐❝❤❛❡❧ ❲❡❜❡r ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ❈❤✐❝❛❣♦ ❛♥❞ ◆❇❊❘

❙❡♣t❡♠❜❡r ✷✽✱ ✷✵✶✾

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SLIDE 2

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

P♦❧✐❝② ❛ss✉♠❡s ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s ❢✉❧❧②

❋♦r✇❛r❞ ❣✉✐❞❛♥❝❡

❊❣❣❡rtss♦♥ ✫ ❲♦♦❞❢♦r❞ ✭✷✵✵✸✮

❯♥❝♦♥✈❡♥t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜s❝❛❧ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s

❉✬❆❝✉♥t♦✱ ❍♦❛♥❣✱ ✫ ❲❡❜❡r ✭✷✵✶✽✮

❈♦♥✈❡♥t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜s❝❛❧ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s

❋❛r❤✐ ✫ ❲❡r♥✐♥❣ ✭✷✵✶✼✮

❇❯❚ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ♦❢t❡♥ ❧❡ss ❡✛❡❝t✐✈❡✿ ❡✳❣✳✱ ❢♦r✇❛r❞ ❣✉✐❞❛♥❝❡ ♣✉③③❧❡

❉❡❧ ◆❡❣r♦✱ ●✐❛♥♥♦♥✐✱ ✫ P❛tt❡rs♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✺✮

❘❡❝❡♥t t❤❡♦r② ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✿ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❛❣❡♥ts ✫ ✉♥✐♥s✉r❛❜❧❡ s❤♦❝❦s

▼❝❑❛②✱ ◆❛❦❛♠✉r❛✱ ✫ ❙t❡✐♥ss♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✻✮❀ ❑❛♣❧❛♥✱ ▼♦❧❧✱ ✫ ❱✐♦❧❛♥t❡ ✭✷✵✶✽✮❀ ❍❛❣❡❞♦r♥ ❡t ❛❧ ✭✷✵✶✽✮

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SLIDE 3

❙✐♠♣❧❡ P♦❧✐❝✐❡s ✈s ❈♦♠♣❧❡① P♦❧✐❝✐❡s

9 / 5 1 2 / 5 3 / 6 6 / 6 9 / 6 1 2 / 6 3 / 7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 5 / 1 3 8 / 1 3 1 1 / 1 3 2 / 1 4 5 / 1 4 8 / 1 4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 9 / 5 1 2 / 5 3 / 6 6 / 6 9 / 6 1 2 / 6 3 / 7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 5 / 1 3 8 / 1 3 1 1 / 1 3 2 / 1 4 5 / 1 4 8 / 1 4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

❉✬❆❝✉♥t♦✱ ❍♦❛♥❣✱ ❲❡❜❡r✿ ▼❛♥❛❣✐♥❣ ❍♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s✬ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ ❙✐♠♣❧❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ P♦❧✐❝✐❡s Pr❡✲❛♥♥♦✉♥❝❡❞ ❱❆❚ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s st✐♠✉❧❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ s♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ ❋♦r✇❛r❞ ❣✉✐❞❛♥❝❡ ❛♥♥♦✉♥❝❡♠❡♥t ❞♦ ♥♦t ♠♦✈❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❝❤♦✐❝❡

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SLIDE 4

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

P♦❧✐❝② ❛ss✉♠❡s ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s ❢✉❧❧②

❋♦r✇❛r❞ ❣✉✐❞❛♥❝❡

❊❣❣❡rtss♦♥ ✫ ❲♦♦❞❢♦r❞ ✭✷✵✵✸✮

❯♥❝♦♥✈❡♥t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜s❝❛❧ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s

❉✬❆❝✉♥t♦✱ ❍♦❛♥❣✱ ✫ ❲❡❜❡r ✭✷✵✶✽✮

❈♦♥✈❡♥t✐♦♥❛❧ ✜s❝❛❧ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s

❋❛r❤✐ ✫ ❲❡r♥✐♥❣ ✭✷✵✶✼✮

❇❯❚ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ♦❢t❡♥ ❧❡ss ❡✛❡❝t✐✈❡✿ ❡✳❣✳✱ ❢♦r✇❛r❞ ❣✉✐❞❛♥❝❡ ♣✉③③❧❡

❉❡❧ ◆❡❣r♦✱ ●✐❛♥♥♦♥✐✱ ✫ P❛tt❡rs♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✺✮

❘❡❝❡♥t t❤❡♦r② ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✿ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s ❛❣❡♥ts ✫ ✉♥✐♥s✉r❛❜❧❡ s❤♦❝❦s

▼❝❑❛②✱ ◆❛❦❛♠✉r❛✱ ✫ ❙t❡✐♥ss♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✻✮❀ ❑❛♣❧❛♥✱ ▼♦❧❧✱ ✫ ❱✐♦❧❛♥t❡ ✭✷✵✶✽✮❀ ❍❛❣❡❞♦r♥ ❡t ❛❧ ✭✷✵✶✽✮

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SLIDE 5

❋❡❞ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❚❛r❣❡t

❈♦✐❜✐♦♥✱ ●♦r♦❞♥✐❝❤❡♥❦♦✱ ❲❡❜❡r✿ P♦❧✐❝② ❈♦♠♠✉♥✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❍♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s✬ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❖♥❧② ✺✵✪ t❤✐♥❦ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ t❛r❣❡t ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✵✪ ❛♥❞ ✺✪ ✹✵✪ t❤✐♥❦s ❋❡❞ ❤❛s ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ t❛r❣❡t >= ✶✵✪

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SLIDE 6

❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥

✏❬❲❡ ❛ss✉♠❡❪ ❯♥r❡❛❧✐st✐❝ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♦❢ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♠❛❦❡rs✑

❲♦♦❞❢♦r❞ ✭✷✵✶✽✮

▲❛r❣❡ ❳❙ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡✐t② ✐♥ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ✰ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ✭❍♦✇ ♠✉❝❤✮ ❉♦❡s ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐♦♥ ♠❛tt❡r ❢♦r ♣♦❧✐❝② ❡✛❡❝t✐✈❡♥❡ss❄ ❲❤② ♠✐❣❤t ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♠❛tt❡r❄

❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ❣❛t❤❡r✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ❝✉rr❡♥t st❛t❡ ❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ■♥❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ♦♣t✐♠✐③❡ ✭✐♥t❡rt❡♠♣♦r❛❧❧②✮

▼❛✐♥ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❤✉r❞❧❡s

◆❡❡❞ t♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❢♦r ❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡ s❛♠♣❧❡ ◆❡❡❞ t♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♣♦❧✐❝② ❡✛❡❝t✐✈❡♥❡ss

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SLIDE 7

❚❤✐s P❛♣❡r

▼❡❛s✉r❡ ■◗ ❢♦r ❛❧❧ ♠❡♥ ✐♥ ❋✐♥❧❛♥❞ ❢r♦♠ ❋✐♥♥✐s❤ ▼✐❧✐t❛r② ❋♦r❝❡s ▼❛t❝❤ ✇✐t❤ ✉♥✐q✉❡ ❞❛t❛ ♦♥ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ▲✐♥❦ t♦ t❛① r❡❝♦r❞s✱ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s✬ ❢✉❧❧ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ s❤❡❡ts ❯s❡ ♠❛t❝❤❡❞ ❞❛t❛ t♦

❈♦♥str✉❝t ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦rs ❢♦r ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❜② ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❊st✐♠❛t❡ ❊✉❧❡r ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ▼❡❛s✉r❡ ∆ ✐♥ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t② t♦ t❛❦❡ ♦✉t ❧♦❛♥ t♦ ∆ ✐♥t❡r❡st r❛t❡s

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SLIDE 8

❖✈❡r✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❘❡s✉❧ts✿ ❆❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦rs ❜② ■◗

2 3 4 5 Mean Absolute Forecast Error 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Normalized IQ

▼❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ■◗✿ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ❢♦r ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✹✳✺✪ ❉❡❝r❡❛s❡s ♠♦♥♦t♦♥✐❝❛❧❧② ✇✐t❤ ■◗ ❊✛❡❝t ✉♥r❡❧❛t❡❞ t♦ ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ❛♥❞ ❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥

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SLIDE 9

❖t❤❡r ▼❛✐♥ ❋✐♥❞✐♥❣s

❍✐❣❤ ■◗ ♠❡♥

❆❞❥✉st ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♣❧❛♥s ♠♦r❡ t♦ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❇♦t❤ ✈❡r❜❛❧ ❛♥❞ q✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ■◗ ♠❛tt❡r P❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❝✉rr❡♥t ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ♣❛st ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ■♥❝r❡❛s❡ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t② t♦ t❛❦❡ ♦✉t ❧♦❛♥ ❛❢t❡r ❝✉t ✐♥ r❛t❡s ❉❡❝r❡❛s❡ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t② t♦ t❛❦❡ ♦✉t ❧♦❛♥ ❛❢t❡r ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ r❛t❡s

❊❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥❝♦♠❡✱ ❛♥❞ ✏r❛♥❞♦♠✑ ❛♥s✇❡r✐♥❣ ❞♦ ♥♦t ❞r✐✈❡ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s ❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ tr❛♥s♠✐ss✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣♦❧✐❝②

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SLIDE 10

❉❛t❛

❉❛t❛ ❙♦✉r❝❡s

❊✉r♦♣❡❛♥ ❤❛r♠♦♥✐③❡❞ s✉r✈❡② ♦♥ ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ✭❊❯✮

✶✱✺✵✵ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡ ❋✐♥♥✐s❤ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ❡✈❡r② ♠♦♥t❤ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥s ❛❜♦✉t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ♣❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❙❛♠♣❧❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✿ ▼❛r❝❤ ✶✾✾✺✕▼❛r❝❤ ✷✵✶✺ ❘✐❝❤ ❞❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ✭❛❣❡✱ ✐♥❝♦♠❡✱ ♠❛r✐t❛❧ st❛t✉s✱ ❝✐t② s✐③❡✱ ❦✐❞s✱ ❥♦❜✮

▼✐❧✐t❛r② ❡♥tr❛♥❝❡ t❡st ❞❛t❛ ✭♠❡♥✮ ❢r♦♠ ❋✐♥♥✐s❤ ❆r♠❡❞ ❋♦r❝❡s ❚❛① ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r ❛❞♠✐♥✐str❛t✐✈❡ ❞❛t❛ ❢r♦♠ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝s ❋✐♥❧❛♥❞

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SLIDE 11

❉❛t❛

❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❆❜✐❧✐t② ❉❛t❛

▼❛♥❞❛t♦r② ♠✐❧✐t❛r② s❡r✈✐❝❡ ✐♥ ❋✐♥❧❛♥❞✿ ❋✐♥♥✐s❤ ❆r♠❡❞ ❋♦r❝❡s ✭❋❆❋✮ ❆r♦✉♥❞ ❛❣❡ ✶✾✱ ✶✷✵ q✉❡st✐♦♥s t♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❋❆❋ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡s s❝♦r❡s ✐♥t♦ ❛ ❝♦♠♣♦s✐t❡✿ ■◗ ❋❆❋ st❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡s ■◗ t♦ ❢♦❧❧♦✇ ❛ st❛♥✐♥❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥

✾ ♣♦✐♥ts t♦ ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ▲♦✇❡st ✹✪ ♦❢ s❝♦r❡s ❛t ❧❡❛st ✶✳✼✺ st❞ ❢r♦♠ ♠❡❛♥✿ st❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ ■◗ ♦❢ ✶ ✹✪ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤❡st t❡st s❝♦r❡s✿ st❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ ■◗ ♦❢ ✾

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SLIDE 12

❉❛t❛

❊❯ ❙✉r✈❡②✿ P✉r❝❤❛s✐♥❣ P❧❛♥s

◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ✽

■♥ ✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥✱ ❞♦ ②♦✉ t❤✐♥❦ t❤❛t ♥♦✇ ✐t ✐s t❤❡ r✐❣❤t ♠♦♠❡♥t ❢♦r ♣❡♦♣❧❡ t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ♠❛❥♦r ♣✉r❝❤❛s❡s s✉❝❤ ❛s ❢✉r♥✐t✉r❡✱ ❡❧❡❝tr✐❝❛❧✴ ❡❧❡❝tr♦♥✐❝ ❞❡✈✐❝❡s✱ ❡t❝✳❄

❆♥s✇❡r ❝❤♦✐❝❡s✿ ✏✐t ✐s ♥❡✐t❤❡r t❤❡ r✐❣❤t ♠♦♠❡♥t ♥♦r t❤❡ ✇r♦♥❣ ♠♦♠❡♥t✱✑ ✏♥♦✱ ✐t ✐s ♥♦t t❤❡ r✐❣❤t ♠♦♠❡♥t ♥♦✇✱✑ ♦r ✏②❡s✱ ✐t ✐s t❤❡ r✐❣❤t ♠♦♠❡♥t ♥♦✇✳✑

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SLIDE 13

❉❛t❛

❊❯ ❙✉r✈❡②✿ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ✻

❇② ❤♦✇ ♠❛♥② ♣❡r ❝❡♥t ❞♦ ②♦✉ ❡①♣❡❝t ❝♦♥s✉♠❡r ♣r✐❝❡s t♦ ❣♦ ✉♣✴ ❞♦✇♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ✶✷ ♠♦♥t❤s❄

❆♥s✇❡r ❝❤♦✐❝❡s✿ ❈♦♥s✉♠❡r ♣r✐❝❡s ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❜② ❳❳❳✳❳✪ ✴ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ❜② ❳❳❳✳❳✪✳

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SLIDE 14

❉❛t❛

❊❯ ❙✉r✈❡②✿ ▼❛❝r♦ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ✷✷

❲❤❡♥ ②♦✉ t❤✐♥❦ ❛❜♦✉t t❤❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ s✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❋✐♥❧❛♥❞✱ ❞♦ ②♦✉ t❤✐♥❦ ✐t ✐s ✳✳✳❄

❆♥s✇❡r ❝❤♦✐❝❡s✿ ✏✈❡r② ❜❛❞ t✐♠❡ t♦ ❜♦rr♦✇✱✑ ✏♣r❡tt② ❜❛❞ t✐♠❡ t♦ ❜♦rr♦✇✱✑ ✏♣r❡tt② ❣♦♦❞ t✐♠❡ t♦ ❜♦rr♦✇✱✑ ♦r ✏✈❡r② ❣♦♦❞ t✐♠❡ t♦ ❜♦rr♦✇✳✑

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SLIDE 15

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❜② ■◗

▲♦✇ ■◗ ✷ ✸ ✹ ✺ ✻ ✼ ✽ ❍✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡❛♥ ✸✳✹✻ ✷✳✽✵ ✷✳✺✽ ✷✳✹✷ ✷✳✹✵ ✷✳✸✻ ✷✳✷✽ ✷✳✸✵ ✷✳✷✻ ❙t❞ ✽✳✼✵ ✺✳✾✸ ✺✳✺✷ ✹✳✻✻ ✹✳✻✻ ✹✳✶✻ ✸✳✹✼ ✹✳✶✸ ✸✳✸✶ ◆♦❜s ✾✷✽ ✷✱✷✷✶ ✷✱✽✻✵ ✼✱✵✶✶ ✾✱✺✷✽ ✽✱✵✾✾ ✻✱✵✸✵ ✸✱✷✶✸ ✷✱✻✽✽ ▲♦✇ ■◗ ♠❡♥ ❤❛✈❡ ❍✐❣❤❡r ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ▲❛r❣❡r ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❞✐s♣❡rs✐♦♥

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SLIDE 16

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦r ❜② ■◗

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ✉♣✇❛r❞ ❜✐❛s ✐♥ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

❍♦✇ ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛r❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ❛❜♦✉t ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥❄ ▼❡❛s✉r❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❛❝❝✉r❛❝② ❜② ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ❋♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r✿ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ♠✐♥✉s ❡①✲♣♦st r❡❛❧✐③❡❞ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ▼❡❛s✉r❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ❢♦r ❛❧❧ ♠❡♥ ❜② ■◗

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SLIDE 17

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

▼❡❛♥ ❆❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦r ❜② ■◗ ❝♦♥t✳

2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Mean Absolute Forecast Error 2 4 6 8 10 Normalized IQ

❆❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦rs t✇✐❝❡ ❛s ❧❛r❣❡ ❢♦r ❧♦✇ ■◗ ♠❡♥ t❤❛♥ ❢♦r ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ♠❡♥ ▼♦♥♦t♦♥✐❝ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣ ❜t✇ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ❛♥❞ ■◗

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SLIDE 18

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

▼❡❛♥ ❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦r ❜② ■◗ ❝♦♥t✳

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Mean Forecast Error 2 4 6 8 10 Normalized IQ

❙✐♠✐❧❛r ♣❛tt❡r♥ ❢♦r ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ▼♦♥♦t♦♥✐❝ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣ ❜t✇ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ❛♥❞ ■◗

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SLIDE 19

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

■◗ ✈❡rs✉s ❊❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥

■◗✿ ✐♥♥❛t❡ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♦r ❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥❄ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❢♦r ♣♦❧✐❝② ■◗ ♠❡❛s✉r❡❞ ❛t ❛❣❡ ♦❢ ✶✾ ❜❡❢♦r❡ ❝♦❧❧❡❣❡

❍♦♠♦❣❡♥❡♦✉s s♦❝✐❡t② ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧ ❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢r❡❡

❇❛s❡❧✐♥❡ r❡s✉❧ts ❝♦♥tr♦❧ ❢♦r ❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥ ❈♦♠♣❛r❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦rs ❜② ❝♦❧❧❡❣❡ ❛♥❞ ■◗

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SLIDE 20

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦r ❜② ■◗

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Mean Forecast Error 2 4 6 8 10 Normalized IQ

▼♦♥♦t♦♥✐❝ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣ ❜t✇ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ❛♥❞ ■◗ ❆✈❡r❛❣❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ✹ t✐♠❡s ❧❛r❣❡r ❢♦r ❧♦✇ ■◗ ❝♦♠♣❛r❡❞ t♦ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ♠❡♥

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SLIDE 21

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦r ❜② ❊❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Mean Forecast Error 3 4 5 6 7 8 Education Categories

❊❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥ ❞✉♠♠✐❡s✿ ■♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❈❧❛ss✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❊❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥ ◆♦ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ❛♥❞ ❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥

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SLIDE 22

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦r ❜② ■♥❝♦♠❡

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Mean Forecast Error 2 4 6 8 10 9 Income Percentiles

❚❛①❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❝♦♠❡✿ ✾ ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡ ❞✉♠♠✐❡s ◆♦ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ❛♥❞ ✐♥❝♦♠❡

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SLIDE 23

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

▲♦✇ ❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❆❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❛♥❞ ❖t❤❡r ❖✉t❝♦♠❡s

❈♦♥❝❡r♥✿ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ✇✴ ❧♦✇ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❛♥s✇❡r r❛♥❞♦♠❧②

❡✳❣✳✱ t♦ ✜♥✐s❤ ❢❛st

▲✐♠✐t ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♦♥ ❡✛❡❝t✐✈❡♥❡ss ♦❢ ♣♦❧✐❝✐❡s ❈♦♠♣❛r❡ ♦t❤❡r ♦✉t❝♦♠❡s ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ❛♥❞ ❤✐❣❤ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s

◗✉❡st✐♦♥ ♦♥ ❤♦✇ ❡✈❛❧✉❛t❡ ❝✉rr❡♥t ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❋✐♥❧❛♥❞ ❜② ■◗

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SLIDE 24

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❈✉rr❡♥t ❙✐t✉❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❋✐♥❧❛♥❞ ❜② ■◗

1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 01jan2000 01jan2005 01jan2010 01jan2015 date Mean Perception: High IQ Mean Perception: Low IQ

❆✈❡r❛❣❡s ❢♦r ❧♦✇ ❛♥❞ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ✈✐rt✉❛❧❧② ✐♥❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐s❤❛❜❧❡ ❆❧❧❡✈✐❛t❡s ❝♦♥❝❡r♥s ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❛♥s✇❡r r❛♥❞♦♠❧②

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SLIDE 25

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

P❛st ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❈✉rr❡♥t P❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥s

❘❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✭❘❊✮ → ❝♦rr✭♣❛st ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥✱ ♣❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥✮ > ✵ ❘♦t❛t✐♥❣ ♣❛♥❡❧ ❢r♦♠ ✶✾✾✺ ✉♥t✐❧ ✶✾✾✾ ❚❤r❡❡ t✐♠❡s ✇✐t❤ ✻✲♠♦♥t❤ ❧❛❣ ❘❡❣r❡ss ♣❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❝✉rr❡♥t ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ ♣❛st ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

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SLIDE 26

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

P❛st ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❈✉rr❡♥t P❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥s ❝♦♥t✳

❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ ✭✸✮ ✭✹✮ P❛st ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✵.✷✸∗∗∗ ✵.✵✹✺ ✵.✷✸∗∗∗ ✵.✵✸ (✺.✶✶) (✶.✹✼) (✸.✹✾) (✵.✺✹) ❚✐♠❡ ✜①❡❞ ❡✛❡❝ts ❳ ❳ ❳ ❳ ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ❳ ❳ ❛❞❥✳ ❘✷ ✵✳✵✷ ✵✳✵✵ ✵✳✵✶ ✵✳✵✵ ◆♦❜s ✶✱✸✼✽ ✶✱✷✵✾ ✶✱✵✽✸ ✼✼✻ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❡rr♦rs ✐♥ ♣❛r❡♥t❤❡s❡s ∗p < ✵.✶✵, ∗ ∗ p < ✵.✵✺, ∗ ∗ ∗p < ✵.✵✶ ❙tr♦♥❣ ❛ss♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ◆♦ ❛ss♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ♦♥ ❞❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s

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SLIDE 27

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

P❛st ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❈✉rr❡♥t ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

❘❡❛❧✐③❡❞ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❤✐❣❤❧② ♣❡rs✐st❡♥t ❘❊ → ❝♦rr✭♣❛st ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥✱ ❝✉rr❡♥t ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥✮ > ✵ ❘❡❣r❡ss ❝✉rr❡♥t ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦♥ ♣❛st ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

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SLIDE 28

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

P❛st ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❈✉rr❡♥t ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❝♦♥t✳

❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ ✭✸✮ ✭✹✮ P❛st ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✭✻♠✮ ✵.✷✽∗∗∗ ✵.✵✸ (✺.✸✸) (✶.✵✵) P❛st ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✭✶✷♠✮ ✵.✷✻∗∗∗ ✵.✵✸ (✷.✸✽) (✶.✷✶) ❚✐♠❡ ✜①❡❞ ❡✛❡❝ts ❳ ❳ ❳ ❳ ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ❳ ❳ ❳ ❳ ❛❞❥✳ ❘✷ ✵✳✵✷ ✵✳✵✶ ✵✳✵✶ ✵✳✵✵ ◆♦❜s ✶✱✸✻✽ ✶✱✶✾✷ ✺✻✸ ✹✽✷ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❡rr♦rs ✐♥ ♣❛r❡♥t❤❡s❡s ∗p < ✵.✶✵, ∗ ∗ p < ✵.✵✺, ∗ ∗ ∗p < ✵.✵✶ ❙tr♦♥❣ ❛ss♦❝✐❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ❜♦t❤ ❢♦r ✻ ❛♥❞ ✶✷ ♠♦♥t❤s ❛❣♦ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❲❡❛❦ ❛ss♦❝✐❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ❘❡s✉❧ts ♦♥❧② tr✉❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ♣❡r✐♦❞s ♦❢ ♣❡rs✐st❡♥t ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥

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SLIDE 29

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦rs ❛♥❞ ❋♦r❡❝❛st ❘❡✈✐s✐♦♥s

❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❜♦t❤ ❤✐❣❤✲ ❛♥❞ ❧♦✇✲■◗ ♠❡♥ ❞❡✈✐❛t❡ ❢r♦♠ ❋■❘❊ ❉♦ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ♦✈❡r✲ ♦r ✉♥❞❡rr❡❛❝t t♦ ♥❡✇s❄ ■♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s✬ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ s❡t ✉♥♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❈♦✐❜✐♦♥ ✫ ●♦r♦❞♥✐❝❤❡♥❦♦ ✭✷✵✶✷✱✺✮✿ r❡❣r❡ss ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦rs ♦♥ r❡✈✐s✐♦♥s xt+✶ − xi,t+✶|t = α + βFRi,t,✶ + εi,t β < ✵ ✐♥❞✐❝❛t❡s ♦✈❡rr❡❛❝t✐♦♥ ❛t ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❧❡✈❡❧

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SLIDE 30

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦rs ❛♥❞ ❋♦r❡❝❛st ❘❡✈✐s✐♦♥s ❝♦♥t✳

xt+✶ − xi,t+✶|t = α + βFRi,t,✶ + εi,t ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ ✭✸✮ ✭✹✮ ❋♦r❡❝❛st r❡✈✐s✐♦♥ −✵.✼✻∗∗∗ −✵.✺✷∗∗∗ −✵.✽✼∗∗∗ −✵.✺✷ (✵.✶✵) (✵.✶✺) (✵.✶✶) (✵.✹✷) ❨❡❛r✲▼♦♥t❤ ❋❊ ❳ ❳ ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ❳ ❳ ■♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❋❊ ❳ ❳ Ps❡✉❞♦ ❘✷ ✵✳✻✺✹✺ ✵✳✹✽✶✼ ✵✳✾✺✽✶ ✵✳✾✹✷✻ ◆♦❜s ✶✱✸✼✼ ✶✱✷✵✸ ✶✱✵✽✷ ✼✼✹ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❡rr♦rs ✐♥ ♣❛r❡♥t❤❡s❡s ∗p < ✵.✶✵, ∗ ∗ p < ✵.✵✺, ∗ ∗ ∗p < ✵.✵✶ ❈♦♥s✐st❡♥t ♦✈❡rr❡❛❝t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ❤✐❣❤✲■◗ ♠❡♥ ❲❡❛❦ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢♦r ♦✈❡rr❡❛❝t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ■◗

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SLIDE 31

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ P✉r❝❤❛s✐♥❣ Pr♦♣❡♥s✐t✐❡s

▼❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❤❛✈❡ ❧❛r❣❡r ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦rs ❇✉t ❞♦ t❤❡② st✐❧❧ s✉❜st✐t✉t❡ ✐♥t❡rt❡♠♣♦r❛❧❧② ✭❊✉❧❡r ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥✮❄ ✐✳❡✳✱ ❞♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♣❧❛♥s r❡s♣♦♥❞ t♦ ❝❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s❄ ❘❡❧❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s t♦ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t② t♦ ❜✉② ❞✉r❛❜❧❡s ❜② ■◗

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SLIDE 32

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❇❛s❡❧✐♥❡ ❙♣❡❝✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥✿ ▼✉❧t✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ▲♦❣✐t

❆ss✉♠❡ s✉r✈❡② ❛♥s✇❡r ✐s r❛♥❞♦♠ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ y ❉❡✜♥❡ t❤❡ r❡s♣♦♥s❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❛s P(y = t|X) ❆ss✉♠❡ t❤❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ r❡s♣♦♥s❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ✐s P(y = t|X) = eXβt ✶ +

z=✶,✷ eXβz ,

❊st✐♠❛t❡ βt ✈✐❛ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ ▼❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❡✛❡❝t✿ ❞❡r✐✈❛t✐✈❡ ♦❢ P(y = t|x) ✇✐t❤ r❡s♣❡❝t t♦ x ❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧❧②✿ ❞❡✜♥❡ ✏✐t✬s ♥❡✐t❤❡r ❣♦♦❞ ♥♦r ❜❛❞ t✐♠❡✑ ❛s ❜❛s❡❧✐♥❡

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SLIDE 33

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s

▼❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❊✛❡❝ts✿ ∂P(y = t|x) ∂x = P(y = t|x)  βtx −

  • z=✵,✶,✷

P(y = z|x)βzx   ▼❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ■◗ ❞❛t❛ ▼❡♥ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ ✭✸✮ ✭✹✮ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✵.✵✷✶✹∗∗∗ ✵.✵✶✹✼ ✵.✵✸✺✽∗∗∗ −✵.✵✵✾✻ (✵.✵✵✹✼) (✵.✵✶✵✵) (✵.✵✶✶✾) (✵.✵✶✸✽) ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s Ps❡✉❞♦ ❘✷ ◆♦❜s ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❡rr♦rs ✐♥ ♣❛r❡♥t❤❡s❡s ∗p < ✵.✶✵, ∗ ∗ p < ✵.✵✺, ∗ ∗ ∗p < ✵.✵✶ ▲❍❙✿ ❆♥s✇❡r ❢♦r ❣♦♦❞ t✐♠❡ t♦ ❜✉② ❘❍❙✿ ❉✉♠♠② ❢♦r ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❉❡♠♦✿ ❛❣❡✱ ❛❣❡✷✱ ♠❛❧❡✱ s✐♥❣❧❡✱ ❧♦❣ ✐♥❝♦♠❡✱ ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②❡❞✱ ❦✐❞s✱ ✉r❜❛♥✱ ❤❡❧s✐♥❦✐✱ ❝♦❧❧❡❣❡

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SLIDE 34

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❝♦♥t✳

▼❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❊✛❡❝ts✿ ∂P(y = t|x) ∂x = P(y = t|x)  βtx −

  • z=✵,✶,✷

P(y = z|x)βzx   ▼❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ■◗ ❞❛t❛ ▼❡♥ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ ✭✸✮ ✭✹✮ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✵.✵✷✶✹∗∗∗ ✵.✵✶✹✼ ✵.✵✸✺✽∗∗∗ −✵.✵✵✾✻ (✵.✵✵✹✼) (✵.✵✶✵✵) (✵.✵✶✶✾) (✵.✵✶✸✽) ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ❳ ❳ ❳ ❳ Ps❡✉❞♦ ❘✷ ✵✳✵✵✻✼ ✵✳✵✶✵✼ ✵✳✵✶✵✽ ✵✳✵✵✾✶ ◆♦❜s ✸✶✶✱✶✻✹ ✸✷✱✽✻✷ ✶✻✱✻✵✻ ✶✻✱✷✺✻ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❡rr♦rs ✐♥ ♣❛r❡♥t❤❡s❡s ∗p < ✵.✶✵, ∗ ∗ p < ✵.✵✺, ∗ ∗ ∗p < ✵.✵✶ ❆❧❧ ❋✐♥♥s✿ ❍✐❣❤❡r ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ → ✷✪ ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦❡❧② t♦ ❛♥s✇❡r ✏❣♦♦❞ t✐♠❡ t♦ ♣✉r❝❤❛s❡ ❞✉r❛❜❧❡s✑

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SLIDE 35

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❝♦♥t✳

▼❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❊✛❡❝ts✿ ∂P(y = t|x) ∂x = P(y = t|x)  βtx −

  • z=✵,✶,✷

P(y = z|x)βzx   ▼❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ■◗ ❞❛t❛ ▼❡♥ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ ✭✸✮ ✭✹✮ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✵.✵✷✶✹∗∗∗ ✵.✵✶✹✼ ✵.✵✸✺✽∗∗∗ −✵.✵✵✾✻ (✵.✵✵✹✼) (✵.✵✶✵✵) (✵.✵✶✶✾) (✵.✵✶✸✽) ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ❳ ❳ ❳ ❳ Ps❡✉❞♦ ❘✷ ✵✳✵✵✻✼ ✵✳✵✶✵✼ ✵✳✵✶✵✽ ✵✳✵✵✾✶ ◆♦❜s ✸✶✶✱✶✻✹ ✸✷✱✽✻✷ ✶✻✱✻✵✻ ✶✻✱✷✺✻ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❡rr♦rs ✐♥ ♣❛r❡♥t❤❡s❡s ∗p < ✵.✶✵, ∗ ∗ p < ✵.✵✺, ∗ ∗ ∗p < ✵.✵✶ ❋✐♥♥✐s❤ ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ■◗ ❞❛t❛✿ ♥♦ ❛ss♦❝✐❛t✐♦♥ ❜t✇ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ♣✉r❝❤❛s✐♥❣ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t✐❡s

slide-36
SLIDE 36

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❝♦♥t✳

▼❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❊✛❡❝ts✿ ∂P(y = t|x) ∂x = P(y = t|x)  βtx −

  • z=✵,✶,✷

P(y = z|x)βzx   ▼❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ■◗ ❞❛t❛ ▼❡♥ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ ✭✸✮ ✭✹✮ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✵.✵✷✶✹∗∗∗ ✵.✵✶✹✼ ✵.✵✸✺✽∗∗∗ −✵.✵✵✾✻ (✵.✵✵✹✼) (✵.✵✶✵✵) (✵.✵✶✶✾) (✵.✵✶✸✽) ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ❳ ❳ ❳ ❳ Ps❡✉❞♦ ❘✷ ✵✳✵✵✻✼ ✵✳✵✶✵✼ ✵✳✵✶✵✽ ✵✳✵✵✾✶ ◆♦❜s ✸✶✶✱✶✻✹ ✸✷✱✽✻✷ ✶✻✱✻✵✻ ✶✻✱✷✺✻ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❡rr♦rs ✐♥ ♣❛r❡♥t❤❡s❡s ∗p < ✵.✶✵, ∗ ∗ p < ✵.✵✺, ∗ ∗ ∗p < ✵.✵✶ ❙tr♦♥❣ ❛ss♦❝✐❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ◆♦ ❛ss♦❝✐❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ■◗

slide-37
SLIDE 37

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s✿ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❈♦♥str❛✐♥ts

▲♦✇ ■◗ ♠❡♥ ❞♦ ♥♦t ❛❞❥✉st ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♣❧❛♥s t♦ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ▼❛②❜❡ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ♠❡♥ ❤❛♥❞ t♦ ♠♦✉t❤✱ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥❡❞❄ ▲✐♠✐t s❛♠♣❧❡ t♦ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ✉♥❧✐❦❡❧② t♦ ❜❡ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥❡❞ ❋♦❝✉s ♦♥ ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ❛❜♦✈❡ t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞✿ ✷✺th ♦r ✺✵th ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡

slide-38
SLIDE 38

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s✿ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❈♦♥str❛✐♥ts ❝♦♥t✳

▼❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❊✛❡❝ts✿ ∂P(y = t|x) ∂x = P(y = t|x)  βtx −

  • z=✵,✶,✷

P(y = z|x)βzx   ■♥❝♦♠❡ > ✺✵th ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡t ■♥❝♦♠❡ > ✷✺th ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡t ▼❡♥ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ ✭✸✮ ✭✹✮ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✵.✵✸✵✻∗∗ ✵.✵✵✷✷ ✵.✵✸✹✸∗∗∗ −✵.✵✶✶ (✵.✵✶✺✹) (✵.✵✶✾✺) (✵.✵✶✸✵) (✵.✵✶✸✵) ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ❳ ❳ ❳ ❳ Ps❡✉❞♦ ❘✷ ✵✳✵✶✷✼ ✵✳✵✶✷✶ ✵✳✵✶✶✷ ✵✳✵✵✾✻ ◆♦❜s ✶✵✱✼✷✸ ✾✱✺✶✹ ✶✹✱✽✺✷ ✶✹✱✸✽✸ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❡rr♦rs ✐♥ ♣❛r❡♥t❤❡s❡s ∗p < ✵.✶✵, ∗ ∗ p < ✵.✵✺, ∗ ∗ ∗p < ✵.✵✶ ❙tr♦♥❣ ❛ss♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ◆♦ ❛ss♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ■◗

slide-39
SLIDE 39

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s ✈s ■♥❝♦♠❡ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ♣♦ss✐❜❧② ❝♦rr❡❧❛t❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

P❤✐❧❧✐♣s ❝✉r✈❡ ■♥❞✐r❡❝t ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ♣♦❧✐❝② ✭❑❛♣❧❛♥✱ ▼♦❧❧✱ ✫ ❱✐♦❧❛♥t❡ ✭✷✵✶✽✮✮

❙♣❧✐t s❛♠♣❧❡ ❜② ♣❡rs♦♥❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ♦✉t❧♦♦❦

❆♥s✇❡r t♦ ✏❉♦ ②♦✉ t❤✐♥❦ ②♦✉r ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞✬s ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡❄✑

slide-40
SLIDE 40

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s ✈s ■♥❝♦♠❡ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ❝♦♥t✳

▼❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❊✛❡❝ts✿ ∂P(y = t|x) ∂x = P(y = t|x)  βtx −

  • z=✵,✶,✷

P(y = z|x)βzx   ❍✐❣❤ ■♥❝♦♠❡ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ▲♦✇ ■♥❝♦♠❡ ❊①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ▼❡♥ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ ✭✸✮ ✭✹✮ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✵.✵✷✾✹∗ −✵.✵✶✻✻ ✵.✵✸✼✶∗∗ −✵.✵✵✹✻ (✵.✵✶✻✺) (✵.✵✶✾✵) (✵.✵✶✺✽) (✵.✵✶✼✻) ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ❳ ❳ ❳ ❳ Ps❡✉❞♦ ❘✷ ✵✳✵✶✶✺ ✵✳✵✵✽✸ ✵✳✵✶✵✻ ✵✳✵✶✵✹ ◆♦❜s ✼✱✸✸✼ ✻✱✹✵✾ ✾✱✷✻✾ ✾✱✽✹✼ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❡rr♦rs ✐♥ ♣❛r❡♥t❤❡s❡s ∗p < ✵.✶✵, ∗ ∗ p < ✵.✵✺, ∗ ∗ ∗p < ✵.✵✶ ❙tr♦♥❣ ❛ss♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ◆♦ ❛ss♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ■◗

slide-41
SLIDE 41

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❙✉❜❝❛t❡❣♦r✐❡s ♦❢ ❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❆❜✐❧✐t✐❡s

❋❆❋ t❡st✿ ✶✷✵ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ✐♥ ✸ ❝❛t❡❣♦r✐❡s✿ ❧♦❣✐❝✱ r❡❛❞✐♥❣✱ ✫ ❛r✐t❤♠❡t✐❝ ❈♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ s✉❜❝❛t❡❣♦r✐❡s✿ ✺✻✪ t♦ ✻✻✪ ❊st✐♠❛t❡ ❊✉❧❡r ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❜② s✉❜❝❛t❡❣♦r② ♦❢ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ❘❡s✉❧ts ❛❧♠♦st ✐❞❡♥t✐❝❛❧ t♦ ♦♥❡s ❢♦r ♦✈❡r❛❧❧ ■◗

slide-42
SLIDE 42

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❚r❛♥s♠✐ss✐♦♥ ♦❢ P♦❧✐❝②

▲♦✇ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s

▲❛r❣❡r ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦rs ❢♦r ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❉♦♥✬t ❛❞❥✉st ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ t♦ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

❉♦ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ♠❛tt❡r ❢♦r t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t✐✈❡♥❡ss ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ♣♦❧✐❝②❄

slide-43
SLIDE 43

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❉❡♣♦s✐t ❋❛❝✐❧✐t② ❘❛t❡✿ ❇❡❣✐♥♥✐♥❣ ♦❢ ◗✉❛rt❡r

1 2 3 4 Deposit Facility Rate 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 01jan2001 01jul2002 01jan2004 01jul2005 01jan2007

❙t✉❞② ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t② t♦ t❛❦❡ ♦✉t ❧♦❛♥ ❜② ■◗ ❇♦t❤ ❢♦r ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ❛♥❞ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ r❛t❡s ❚✐❧❧ ❡♥❞ ✷✵✵✶✿ r❛t❡ ❢❛❧❧s ❢r♦♠ ✸✳✼✺✪ t♦ ✷✳✷✺✪ ❚r♦✉❣❤ ♦❢ ✶✪ ✐♥ ❏✉♥❡ ✷✵✵✸ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡r ✷✵✵✺ r❛t❡s st❛rt ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣❀ ✷✳✺✪ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ✷✵✵✻

slide-44
SLIDE 44

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

Pr♦♣❡♥s✐t② t♦ t❛❦❡ ♦✉t ▲♦❛♥✿ ❍✐❣❤ ■◗

1 2 3 4 Deposit Facility Rate 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 Average Propensity Loan 01jan2001 01jul2002 01jan2004 01jul2005 01jan2007

❊❛r❧② ✷✵✵✶✿ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t② t♦ t❛❦❡ ♦✉t ❧♦❛♥s ♦❢ ❛r♦✉♥❞ ✷✳✺ ◆❡①t ✷✳✺ ②❡❛rs✿ r❛t❡s ❢❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t✐❡s ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t♦ ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ✸ ❚✐❧❧ ♠✐❞ ✷✵✵✺✿ r❛t❡s ❛♥❞ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t✐❡s ✢❛t ❆❢t❡r✇❛r❞s✿ r❛t❡s ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡✱ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t✐❡s ❢❛❧❧

slide-45
SLIDE 45

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

Pr♦♣❡♥s✐t② t♦ t❛❦❡ ♦✉t ▲♦❛♥✿ ▲♦✇ ■◗

1 2 3 4 Deposit Facility Rate 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 Average Propensity Loan 01jan2001 01jul2002 01jan2004 01jul2005 01jan2007

❊❛r❧② ✷✵✵✶✿ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t② t♦ t❛❦❡ ♦✉t ❧♦❛♥s ♦❢ ❛r♦✉♥❞ ✷✳✻ ◆❡①t ✻ ②❡❛rs✿ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t✐❡s ❤♦✈❡r ❛r♦✉♥❞ ✷✳✽

slide-46
SLIDE 46

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❚♦t❛❧ ❉❡❜t ❜② ■◗

❉♦ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ♠❡♥ r❡❛❝t ❧❡ss ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ❝✉t ♦✛ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts❄ ▼❡❛s✉r❡ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡❜t ❜② ■◗ ❢r♦♠ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝s ❋✐♥❧❛♥❞ ▲♦✇ ■◗ ✷ ✸ ✹ ✺ ✻ ✼ ✽ ❍✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡❛♥ ✶✽✱✺✺✽ ✷✷✱✼✽✾ ✷✺✱✸✹✵ ✷✻✱✾✺✵ ✷✼✱✷✵✾ ✷✼✱✵✺✽ ✸✷✱✵✶✾ ✸✵✱✼✵✶ ✸✸✱✶✹✾ ❙t❞ ✹✵✱✽✷✺ ✹✼✱✷✹✼ ✹✻✱✸✺✾ ✹✼✱✵✸✺ ✹✻✱✷✷✽ ✹✼✱✷✹✹ ✹✾✱✷✸✶ ✺✵✱✶✵✷ ✺✺✱✸✻✶ ❚♦t❛❧ ❉❡❜t ✴ ❚❛①❛❜❧❡ ■♥❝♦♠❡ ❜② ■◗ ✵✳✽✷ ✵✳✼✼ ✵✳✼✻ ✵✳✼✺ ✵✳✼✽ ✵✳✽✵ ✵✳✽✶ ✵✳✽✼ ✵✳✾✸ ▲♦✇ ■◗ ♠❡♥ ❛♥❞ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ s✉❜st❛♥t✐❛❧ ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢ ❞❡❜t ❯♥❧✐❦❡❧② r❡str✐❝t❡❞ ❛❝❝❡ss t♦ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❞r✐✈❡ ∆ ❧♦❛♥ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t② t♦ ∆ r❛t❡

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SLIDE 47

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ ❘❡s✉❧ts

❈❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ ❉❡❜t ❛♥❞ ❈❤❛♥❣❡s ✐♥ ■♥t❡r❡st ❘❛t❡s

❙♦ ❢❛r✿ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s✱ ✐♥t❡r❡st r❛t❡s✱ ❛♥❞ s✉r✈❡② ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s ❋❛♠✐❧② ✫ ❢r✐❡♥❞s ♦r ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛❞✈✐s♦rs s❤❛♣❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥s❄ ∆debti,t = α + βIQi,t × ∆ratest + ζIQi,t + X ′

i.tδ + ηt + ǫi,t

✷✵✵✶✲✷✵✵✼ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ IQi,t × ∆ r❛t❡s −✶✷✶.✼✸ ∗ ∗∗ −✽✾.✶✵ ∗ ∗ (✹✶.✺✽) (✹✶.✽✵) IQi,t ✹✺.✼✹ ✺✾.✷✶ (✸✸.✶✵) (✸✺.✽✸) ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ❳ ❨❡❛r ❋❊ ❳ ❳ ◆♦❜s ✶✺✹✱✶✼✺ ✶✺✷✱✶✵✵ ❍✐❣❤✲■◗ ♠❡♥ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ❞❡❜t ❊❯❘ ✾✵ t♦ ✶✷✵ ♠♦r❡ t♦ ✶✪ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ r❛t❡ ❈♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞s t♦ ✸✪ t♦ ✹✪ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣ s❛♠♣❧❡

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SLIDE 48

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❲❤② ♠✐❣❤t ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♠❛tt❡r❄

❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ❣❛t❤❡r✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ❝✉rr❡♥t st❛t❡

❙❛♠❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ❢♦r ❧♦✇✲■◗ ✇✐t❤ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ♣❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥

❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

❙❛♠❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ❢♦r ❧♦✇✲■◗ ✇✐t❤ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

■♥❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ♦♣t✐♠✐③❡ ✭✐♥t❡rt❡♠♣♦r❛❧❧②✮

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SLIDE 49

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❜② P❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥ ❊rr♦rs

❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥ts ♦r ✭✐♥❝♦♠❡✮ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s ✉♥❧✐❦❡❧② ❞r✐✈❡rs ▲♦✇✲■◗ ♠❡♥ ❧❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛❜♦✉t ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧s ▲♦✇✲■◗ ♠❡♥ ♠✐s❝❛❧✐❜r❛t❡❞ ❜❡❧✐❡❢s ❛❜♦✉t ♠❛❝r♦❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s❄ ❙♣❧✐t s❛♠♣❧❡ ❜② ♣❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥ ❡rr♦r ❢♦r ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❛t ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❧❡✈❡❧

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SLIDE 50

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❜② P❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥ ❊rr♦rs ❝♦♥t✳

❆❜s P❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥ ❊rr♦rit <= ▼❡❞✐❛♥t ▼❡♥ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✵.✵✹✼✷∗∗∗ ✵.✵✷✵✾ (✵.✵✶✺✸) (✵.✵✶✻✺) ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ❳ ❳ Ps❡✉❞♦ ❘✷ ✵✳✵✶✵✹ ✵✳✵✵✻✶ ◆♦❜s ✶✵✱✶✶✺ ✽✱✾✽✹ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❡rr♦rs ✐♥ ♣❛r❡♥t❤❡s❡s ∗p < ✵.✶✵, ∗ ∗ p < ✵.✵✺, ∗ ∗ ∗p < ✵.✵✶ ❙tr♦♥❣ ❛ss♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ❛♥❞ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ♣❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥s ◆♦ ❛ss♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ❡✈❡♥ ✐❢ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ♣❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥s

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SLIDE 51

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s ❝♦♥t✳

❲❤② ♠✐❣❤t ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♠❛tt❡r❄

❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ❣❛t❤❡r✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ❝✉rr❡♥t st❛t❡

❙❛♠❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ❢♦r ❧♦✇✲■◗ ✇✐t❤ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ♣❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥

❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

❙❛♠❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ❢♦r ❧♦✇✲■◗ ✇✐t❤ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

■♥❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ♦♣t✐♠✐③❡ ✭✐♥t❡rt❡♠♣♦r❛❧❧②✮

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SLIDE 52

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❜② ❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦rs

▲♦✇✲■◗ ♠❡♥ ❧❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛❜♦✉t ❝✉rr❡♥t ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❉♦ ❧♦✇✲■◗ ♠❡♥ ♥♦t r❡❛❝t ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ❧❡ss ✐♥❢♦r♠❡❞ ❛❜♦✉t ❢✉t✉r❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥❄ ❙♣❧✐t s❛♠♣❧❡ ❜② ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ❢♦r ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❛t ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❧❡✈❡❧

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SLIDE 53

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❊✉❧❡r ❊q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❜② ❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦rs ❝♦♥t✳

❆❜s ❋♦r❡❝❛st ❊rr♦rit <= ▼❡❞✐❛♥t ▼❡♥ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ▼❡♥ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ✭✶✮ ✭✷✮ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥ ✵.✵✹✵✶∗∗ ✵.✵✵✻✾ (✵.✵✶✽✹) (✵.✵✷✹✸) ❉❡♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝s ❳ ❳ Ps❡✉❞♦ ❘✷ ✵✳✵✶✵✶ ✵✳✵✵✽✸ ◆♦❜s ✾✱✻✾✾ ✽✱✻✾✹ ❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❡rr♦rs ✐♥ ♣❛r❡♥t❤❡s❡s ∗p < ✵.✶✵, ∗ ∗ p < ✵.✵✺, ∗ ∗ ∗p < ✵.✵✶ ❙tr♦♥❣ ❛ss♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ❜♦t❤ ❢♦r ❤✐❣❤ ❛♥❞ ❧♦✇ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦rs ◆♦ ❛ss♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠❡♥ ✇✐t❤ ❧♦✇ ■◗ ❡✈❡♥ ✐❢ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

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SLIDE 54

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s ❝♦♥t✳

❲❤② ♠✐❣❤t ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♠❛tt❡r❄

❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ❣❛t❤❡r✐♥❣ ✐♥❢♦♠❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜♦✉t ❝✉rr❡♥t st❛t❡

❙❛♠❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ❢♦r ❧♦✇✲■◗ ✇✐t❤ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ♣❡r❝❡♣t✐♦♥

❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ❢♦r♠✐♥❣ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

❙❛♠❡ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ❢♦r ❧♦✇✲■◗ ✇✐t❤ ❛❝❝✉r❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐♦♥s

■♥❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ♦♣t✐♠✐③❡ ✭✐♥t❡rt❡♠♣♦r❛❧❧②✮ ❛♥❞ ❢♦r❡❝❛st

■♥❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ♠❛♣ ♦❜❥❡❝t✐✈❡ st❛t❡ ✐♥t♦ ♦♣t✐♠❛❧ ❛❝t✐♦♥

■❧✉t ✫ ❱❛❧❝❤❡✈ ✭✷✵✶✼✮

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SLIDE 55

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❖♥❧✐♥❡ ❙✉r✈❡② ❊①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t

❍❡t❡r♦❣❡♥❡✐t② t♦ t❤✐♥❦ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐st✐❝❛❧❧② ✫ ✐♥ ❛❜✐❧✐t② t♦ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❜② ■◗❄ ❆s❦ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s t♦ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❆❘✭✶✮ ③❡r♦ ♠❡❛♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss ✇ ρ = ✵.✾ ❋♦r❡❝❛st ✷ ♣r♦❝❡ss❡s ❢♦r ✶✺ ♣❡r✐♦❞s ❛♥❞ ❞✐s♣❧❛② ✜rst ✹✵ ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ❘❡❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥ ❞✐s♣❧❛②❡❞ ❛❢t❡r ❡❛❝❤ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❘❛♥❞♦♠✐③❡❞ ♦r❞❡r✿ σ = ✺ ✭st❛❜❧❡✮ ✈s σ = ✷✵ ✭✈♦❧❛t✐❧❡✮ ■♥❝❡♥t✐✈✐③❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❛❝❝✉r❛❝② ❚✇♦ ✇❛✈❡s ♦♥ ▼❚✉r❦ ❛ ✺✵✵ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡♥ts ✐♥ ❆✉❣✉st ✷✵✶✾ ▼❡❛s✉r❡ ■◗ ✇✐t❤ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ r❡❛s♦♥✐♥❣ t❡st ❛♥❞ ❜r❛✐♥t❡❛s❡r ❆❞❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ♦♥ ❛ss♦❝✐❛t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ r❡❛s♦♥✐♥❣

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SLIDE 56

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❋♦r❡❝❛st ❆❝❝✉r❛❝② ❘❛♥❞♦♠ Pr♦❝❡ss

3 6 9 12 15 18 Mean Absolute Forecast Error Low IQ High IQ

Absolute Forecast Error---Stable Process

10 20 30 40 Mean Absolute Forecast Error Low IQ High IQ

Absolute Forecast Error---Volatile Process

▲♦✇❡r ♠❡❛♥ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ❢♦r ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ✇✐t❤ st❛❜❧❡ ♣r♦❝❡ss ▲❛r❣❡ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦r ❢♦r ❡✈❡r②♦♥❡ ✐♥ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧❡ ♣r♦❝❡ss

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SLIDE 57

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❆ss♦❝✐❛t✐♦♥s ✇✐t❤ ■♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❜② ■◗

.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Frequency of Association with Infation Low IQ High IQ Gas .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Frequency of Association with Infation Low IQ High IQ Amazon .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Frequency of Association with Infation Low IQ High IQ Stocks .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 Frequency of Association with Infation Low IQ High IQ Prices .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 Frequency of Association with Infation Low IQ High IQ Wages .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 Frequency of Association with Infation Low IQ High IQ Savings

▲♦✇✲■◗ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ts ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦❡❧② t♦ ❛ss♦❝✐❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❝♦♥❝r❡t❡ ❣♦♦❞s

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SLIDE 58

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❘❡❛s♦♥✐♥❣ ❜② ■◗

.4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 Average Rating Meaningful Explanations (0,1) Low IQ High IQ Respondent-produced Explanations for Associations .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Share Respondents Who Agree Low IQ High IQ If Higher Future Inflation Should Save More

❍✐❣❤✲■◗ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ts ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣❢✉❧❧② ❛ss♦❝✐❛t❡ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝♦♥❝❡♣ts ▲♦✇✲■◗ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ts ❧❡ss ❧✐❦❡❧② t♦ ❢♦❧❧♦✇ ❊✉❧❡r ❧♦❣✐❝

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SLIDE 59

❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s

■♥✢❛t✐♦♥✱ ❉❡✢❛t✐♦♥✱ ❛♥❞ ❙❛✈✐♥❣s ❜② ■◗

.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 Share Respondents Who Agree Low IQ High IQ Inflation Mainly Benefits Savers .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 Share Respondents Who Agree Low IQ High IQ Persistent Deflation is Desirable

▲♦✇✲■◗ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ts ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦❡❧② t♦ t❤✐♥❦ ✐♥✢❛t✐♦♥ ❜❡♥❡✜ts s❛✈❡rs ▲♦✇✲■◗ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥ts ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦❡❧② t♦ t❤✐♥❦ ♣❡rs✐st❡♥t ❞❡✢❛t✐♦♥ ❞❡s✐r❛❜❧❡

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SLIDE 60

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

▲♦✇ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s✿

▲❛r❣❡r ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❡rr♦rs ▲❛r❣❡r ❢♦r❡❝❛st ❞✐s♣❡rs✐♦♥ ◆♦ ❛❞❥✉st♠❡♥ts ✐♥ ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♣❧❛♥s ▲♦✇❡r r❡s♣♦♥s❡ ✐♥ ♣r♦♣❡♥s✐t② t♦ t❛❦❡ ♦✉t ❧♦❛♥ t♦ ❧♦✇❡r r❛t❡s

❈♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ✐♠♣❡❞✐♠❡♥t t♦ ❡✛❡❝t✐✈❡♥❡ss ♦❢ ♣♦❧✐❝② ❯♥✐♥t❡♥❞❡❞ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s✿ r❡❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❢r♦♠ ❧♦✇ t♦ ❤✐❣❤ ■◗ ♠❡♥

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SLIDE 61

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

■♠♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❈♦♥❞✉❝t ♦❢ ▼♦♥❡t❛r② P♦❧✐❝②

❙❛❧✐❡♥❝❡✱ ✜♥ ❡❞✉❝❛t✐♦♥✱ ✫ ♣♦❧✐❝② ❝♦♠♠✉♥✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❍♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s r❡❛❝t t♦ s❛❧✐❡♥t ♣♦❧✐❝② ❝❤❛♥❣❡s

❉✬❆❝✉♥t♦✱ ❍♦❛♥❣✱ ✫ ❲❡❜❡r ✭✷✵✶✾✮

❈♦✈❡r❛❣❡ ✐♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♥♦t s✉✣❝✐❡♥t ❢♦r ❝♦♠♠✉♥✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ❡✛❡❝t✐✈❡♥❡ss

❈♦✐❜✐♦♥✱ ●♦r♦❞♥✐❝❤❡♥❦♦✱ ✫ ❲❡❜❡r ✭✷✵✶✾✮

❙✐♠♣❧❡✱ ❡❛s②✲t♦✲✉♥❞❡rst❛♥❞✱ ✫ r❡♣❡❛t❡❞ ❝♦♠♠✉♥✐❝❛t✐♦♥ r❡q✉✐r❡❞