rss rsr ss r - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

r s s r s r s s r
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

rss rsr ss r - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

rss rsr ss r tt r t


slide-1
SLIDE 1

❲❤❡♥ r✐s❦s ♦❢ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡ ❛r❡ ❛♥❛❧②③❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ ❤②♣♦t❤❡t✐❝❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞ ✐♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ ♦♥❡ ❝❛♥♥♦t ❞✐❡ ❞✉❡ t♦ ♥♦♥✲❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡ t❤❡♥ ❛❣❡ ✐s ❛ ❝r❛③② ❣♦♦❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t♦r

❚❤♦♠❛s ❆❧❡①❛♥❞❡r ●❡r❞s

❇✐♦st❛t✐st✐❝s✱ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ❈♦♣❡♥❤❛❣❡♥✱ ❉❡♥♠❛r❦

✵✽ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡r ✷✵✶✺

✶ ✴ ✹✺

slide-2
SLIDE 2

❖✉t❧✐♥❡

Pr♦❧♦❣✿ s✉♠♠❛r② t❛❜❧❡s ❘❡❛❧ ❧✐❢❡ ❆♥❛❧♦❣② ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❧✐✈✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝②❝❧✐♥❣ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r✐s❦s ❘❡✲❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠❛ss ❲❤② ❛❣❡ ✐s ❛ ❝r❛③② ❣♦♦❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t♦r

✷ ✴ ✹✺

slide-3
SLIDE 3

❋❛❝ts

❲✐t❤ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡ t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡ ❛♥❞ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ✐s ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣✳ ❲✐t❤ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡ t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❝♦✲♠♦r❜✐❞✐t② ❛♥❞ ♥♦♥✲❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ✐s ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣✳

✸ ✴ ✹✺

slide-4
SLIDE 4

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♥❣ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡

❙✉♣♣♦s❡ ❛ ✹✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ❛♥❞ ❛ ✽✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❜♦t❤ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❞❡❝✐❞❡ ❢♦r ♦r ❛❣❛✐♥st ♣r❡✈❡♥t✐✈❡ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r t❤❡r❛♣② ❛♥❞ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ♦❢ ❧✐❢❡st②❧❡✳ ❙✉♣♣♦s❡ ❢✉rt❤❡r t❤❛t ❢♦r ❜♦t❤ ♣❡rs♦♥s t❤❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❛ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❡✈❡♥t ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ✶✵ ②❡❛rs ✐s ✶✷✪✳ ❍♦✇ ❝❛♥ ❜♦t❤ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ❜❡ ✈❛❧✐❞❄ ❖♥❡ ♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❛t t❤❡ ✹✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❤❛s r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t t❤❡ ✽✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ❤❛✈❡✳ ❆♥♦t❤❡r ♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❛t t❤❡ ✽✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❤❛s ❛ ♠✉❝❤ ❤✐❣❤❡r r✐s❦ t♦ ❞✐❡ ❞✉❡ t♦ ♥♦♥✲❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❝❛✉s❡s ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ✶✵ ②❡❛rs t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ✹✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ♣❡rs♦♥✳

✹ ✴ ✹✺

slide-5
SLIDE 5

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♥❣ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡

❙✉♣♣♦s❡ ❛ ✹✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ❛♥❞ ❛ ✽✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❜♦t❤ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❞❡❝✐❞❡ ❢♦r ♦r ❛❣❛✐♥st ♣r❡✈❡♥t✐✈❡ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r t❤❡r❛♣② ❛♥❞ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ♦❢ ❧✐❢❡st②❧❡✳ ❙✉♣♣♦s❡ ❢✉rt❤❡r t❤❛t ❢♦r ❜♦t❤ ♣❡rs♦♥s t❤❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝t❡❞ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❛ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❡✈❡♥t ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ✶✵ ②❡❛rs ✐s ✶✷✪✳ ❍♦✇ ❝❛♥ ❜♦t❤ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ❜❡ ✈❛❧✐❞❄ ❖♥❡ ♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❛t t❤❡ ✹✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❤❛s r✐s❦ ❢❛❝t♦rs t❤❛t t❤❡ ✽✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ❤❛✈❡✳ ❆♥♦t❤❡r ♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❛t t❤❡ ✽✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❤❛s ❛ ♠✉❝❤ ❤✐❣❤❡r r✐s❦ t♦ ❞✐❡ ❞✉❡ t♦ ♥♦♥✲❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❝❛✉s❡s ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ ♥❡①t ✶✵ ②❡❛rs t❤❛♥ t❤❡ ✹✵ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞ ♣❡rs♦♥✳

✹ ✴ ✹✺

slide-6
SLIDE 6

❉♦❝✉♠❡♥t❡❞ ❝♦♥❢✉s✐♦♥

✺ ✴ ✹✺

slide-7
SLIDE 7

❆ ♥❡✇ ♣❛r❛❞♦①❄

❲❤❛t ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ t❤❡ r❡❛s♦♥ ❢♦r t❤✐s ❛♣♣❛r❡♥t❧② ❝♦♥tr❛❞✐❝t♦r② r❡s✉❧t❄ ❖♥❡ ♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❛t t❤❡ t✇♦ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ❛r❡ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ t✇♦ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❝♦❤♦rts ❛♥❞ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐♥❣ ❞❛t❛ s❡ts ❛♥❞ t❤✉s ❛♥❛❧②s❡s ❛r❡ ♥♦t ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ r❛♥❞♦♠ ✈❛r✐❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❜❛❝❦❣r♦✉♥❞ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s✳ ❆♥♦t❤❡r ♣❧❛✉s✐❜❧❡ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❛t t❤❡ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❤✐❝❤ ♣r❡❞✐❝ts t❤❡ ✶✵✲②❡❛r r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❆❙❈❱❉ ✇r♦♥❣❧② tr❡❛t❡❞ ♥♦♥✲❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✇❛② ❛s r✐❣❤t ❝❡♥s♦r❡❞✳

✻ ✴ ✹✺

slide-8
SLIDE 8

❉❡✇❧❛♥❞✬s t❛❜❧❡ ✶

❆♥♥❛❧s ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r♥❛❧ ♠❡❞✐❝✐♥❡ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✳ ❆tr✐❛❧ ❊❝t♦♣② ❛s ❛ Pr❡❞✐❝t♦r ♦❢ ■♥❝✐❞❡♥t ❆tr✐❛❧ ❋✐❜r✐❧❧❛t✐♦♥

✼ ✴ ✹✺

slide-9
SLIDE 9

❚♦② ❡①❛♠♣❧❡

s❡① ❛❣❡ t✐♠❡ ❊✈❡♥t ❆❋ st❛t✉s ❢❡♠❛❧❡ ✻✺ ✸ ❉❡❛❞ ◆♦ ✵ ♠❛❧❡ ✽✵ ✹ ❈❡♥s♦r❡❞ ◆♦ ✵ ❢❡♠❛❧❡ ✺✵ ✹ ❈❡♥s♦r❡❞ ◆♦ ✵ ♠❛❧❡ ✺✻ ✻ ❆❋ ❨❡s ✶ ♠❛❧❡ ✾✶ ✼ ❆❋ ❨❡s ✶ ♠❛❧❡ ✻✵ ✼ ❉❡❛❞ ◆♦ ✵ ❢❡♠❛❧❡ ✾✶ ✽ ❉❡❛❞ ◆♦ ✵ ♠❛❧❡ ✽✼ ✾ ❆❋ ❨❡s ✶ ♠❛❧❡ ✺✺ ✶✶ ❆❋ ❨❡s ✶ ♠❛❧❡ ✼✽ ✶✹ ❈❡♥s♦r❡❞ ◆♦ ✵

❇❛s❡❧✐♥❡ t❛❜❧❡❄

❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ▲❡✈❡❧ ■♥❝✐❞❡♥t ❆❋ ✭♥❂✹✮ ◆♦♥✲❆❋ ❞❡❛t❤ ✭♥❂✻✮ ❛❣❡ ♠❡❛♥ ✭s❞✮ ✼✷✳✷ ✭✶✾✳✹✮ ✼✵✳✼ ✭✶✺✳✵✮ s❡① ❢❡♠❛❧❡ ✵ ✭✵✳✵✮ ✸ ✭✺✵✳✵✮ ♠❛❧❡ ✹ ✭✶✵✵✳✵✮ ✸ ✭✺✵✳✵✮

✽ ✴ ✹✺

slide-10
SLIDE 10

❚♦② ❡①❛♠♣❧❡

s❡① ❛❣❡ t✐♠❡ ❊✈❡♥t ❆❋ st❛t✉s ❢❡♠❛❧❡ ✻✺ ✸ ❉❡❛❞ ◆♦ ✵ ♠❛❧❡ ✽✵ ✹ ❈❡♥s♦r❡❞ ◆♦ ✵ ❢❡♠❛❧❡ ✺✵ ✹ ❈❡♥s♦r❡❞ ◆♦ ✵ ♠❛❧❡ ✺✻ ✻ ❆❋ ❨❡s ✶ ♠❛❧❡ ✾✶ ✼ ❆❋ ❨❡s ✶ ♠❛❧❡ ✻✵ ✼ ❉❡❛❞ ◆♦ ✵ ❢❡♠❛❧❡ ✾✶ ✽ ❉❡❛❞ ◆♦ ✵ ♠❛❧❡ ✽✼ ✾ ❆❋ ❨❡s ✶ ♠❛❧❡ ✺✺ ✶✶ ❆❋ ❨❡s ✶ ♠❛❧❡ ✼✽ ✶✹ ❈❡♥s♦r❡❞ ◆♦ ✵

❇❛s❡❧✐♥❡ t❛❜❧❡❄

❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ▲❡✈❡❧ ■♥❝✐❞❡♥t ❆❋ ✭♥❂✹✮ ◆♦♥✲❆❋ ❞❡❛t❤ ✭♥❂✻✮ ❛❣❡ ♠❡❛♥ ✭s❞✮ ✼✷✳✷ ✭✶✾✳✹✮ ✼✵✳✼ ✭✶✺✳✵✮ s❡① ❢❡♠❛❧❡ ✵ ✭✵✳✵✮ ✸ ✭✺✵✳✵✮ ♠❛❧❡ ✹ ✭✶✵✵✳✵✮ ✸ ✭✺✵✳✵✮

✽ ✴ ✹✺

slide-11
SLIDE 11

❚✐♠❡ ♦♥ st✉❞②

Calendar time

E O D E O O

Inclusion Statistical evaluation 2000 2005 2010 Study time (years)

E O D E O O

Inclusion 5 10

E D O = Event = Dead = Alive ✾ ✴ ✹✺

slide-12
SLIDE 12

❋♦❧❧♦✇✉♣ t❛❜❧❡s

❛❢t❡r ✺ ②❡❛rs

❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ▲❡✈❡❧ ■♥❝✐❞❡♥t ❆❋ ◆♦♥✲❆❋ ❞❡❛t❤ ✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ ❊✈❡♥t✲❢r❡❡ ♥ ✵ ✶ ✷ ✼ ❛❣❡ ♠❡❛♥ ✭s❞✮ ✕ ✻✺✳✵ ✭✕✮ ✻✺✳✵ ✭✷✶✳✷✮ ✼✹✳✵ ✭✶✻✳✻✮ s❡① ❢❡♠❛❧❡ ✵ ✭✵✳✵✮ ✶ ✭✶✵✵✳✵✮ ✶ ✭✺✵✳✵✮ ✶ ✭✶✹✳✸✮ ♠❛❧❡ ✵ ✭✵✳✵✮ ✵ ✭✵✳✵✮ ✶ ✭✺✵✳✵✮ ✻ ✭✽✺✳✼✮

✶✵ ②❡❛rs

❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ▲❡✈❡❧ ■♥❝✐❞❡♥t ❆❋ ◆♦♥✲❆❋ ❞❡❛t❤ ✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ ❊✈❡♥t✲❢r❡❡ ♥ ✸ ✸ ✷ ✷ ❛❣❡ ♠❡❛♥ ✭s❞✮ ✼✽✳✵ ✭✶✾✳✷✮ ✼✷✳✵ ✭✶✻✳✻✮ ✻✺✳✵ ✭✷✶✳✷✮ ✻✻✳✺ ✭✶✻✳✸✮ s❡① ❢❡♠❛❧❡ ✵ ✭✵✳✵✮ ✷ ✭✻✻✳✼✮ ✶ ✭✺✵✳✵✮ ✵ ✭✵✳✵✮ ♠❛❧❡ ✸ ✭✶✵✵✳✵✮ ✶ ✭✸✸✳✸✮ ✶ ✭✺✵✳✵✮ ✷ ✭✶✵✵✳✵✮

✶✵ ✴ ✹✺

slide-13
SLIDE 13

❘❡❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞

❈♦♠♣❡t✐♥❣ r✐s❦ ♠♦❞❡❧

◮ ❊✈❡r② ♣❛t✐❡♥t ✇✐❧❧ ❡✐t❤❡r ❞✐❡ ❞✉❡ t♦ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡ ♦r

❞✉❡ t♦ ❛ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❝❛✉s❡ ✭❡✳❣✳✱ ❝❛♥❝❡r✮✳

◮ ✐♥ ❛ ✶✵ ②❡❛r ♣❡r✐♦❞ t❤r❡❡ t❤✐♥❣s ❝❛♥ ❤❛♣♣❡♥✿

◮ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ◮ ❞❡❛t❤ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡ ◮ ❛❧✐✈❡ ❛♥❞ ❢r❡❡ ♦❢ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡

❊st✐♠❛t✐♦♥

P❛t✐❡♥ts ✇❤♦s❡ st❛t✉s ❛t ✶✵ ②❡❛rs ✐s ✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ t♦ ❜❡ ✐♥ ❛♥② ♦❢ t❤❡ t❤r❡❡ st❛t❡s ❛s t❤❡ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❛t ✶✵ ②❡❛rs

✶✶ ✴ ✹✺

slide-14
SLIDE 14

❘❡❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞

❈♦♠♣❡t✐♥❣ r✐s❦ ♠♦❞❡❧

◮ ❊✈❡r② ♣❛t✐❡♥t ✇✐❧❧ ❡✐t❤❡r ❞✐❡ ❞✉❡ t♦ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡ ♦r

❞✉❡ t♦ ❛ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❝❛✉s❡ ✭❡✳❣✳✱ ❝❛♥❝❡r✮✳

◮ ✐♥ ❛ ✶✵ ②❡❛r ♣❡r✐♦❞ t❤r❡❡ t❤✐♥❣s ❝❛♥ ❤❛♣♣❡♥✿

◮ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ◮ ❞❡❛t❤ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡ ◮ ❛❧✐✈❡ ❛♥❞ ❢r❡❡ ♦❢ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡

❊st✐♠❛t✐♦♥

◮ P❛t✐❡♥ts ✇❤♦s❡ st❛t✉s ❛t ✶✵ ②❡❛rs ✐s ✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡

❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ t♦ ❜❡ ✐♥ ❛♥② ♦❢ t❤❡ t❤r❡❡ st❛t❡s ❛s t❤❡ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts ♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ ❛t ✶✵ ②❡❛rs

✶✶ ✴ ✹✺

slide-15
SLIDE 15

❍②♣♦t❤❡t✐❝❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞

❚✇♦✲st❛t❡ ♠♦❞❡❧

◮ ❊✈❡r② ♣❛t✐❡♥t ✇✐❧❧ ❞✐❡ ❞✉❡ t♦ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡ ◮ ✐♥ ❛ ✶✵ ②❡❛r ♣❡r✐♦❞ t✇♦ t❤✐♥❣s ❝❛♥ ❤❛♣♣❡♥✿

◮ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ◮ ❛❧✐✈❡ ❛♥❞ ❢r❡❡ ♦❢ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡

❊st✐♠❛t✐♦♥

◮ P❛t✐❡♥ts ✇❤♦s❡ st❛t✉s ❛t ✶✵ ②❡❛rs ✐s ✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡

❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ t♦ ❜❡ ✐♥ ❛♥② ♦❢ t❤❡ t✇♦ st❛t❡s ❛❢t❡r ✶✵ ②❡❛rs

◮ P❛t✐❡♥t ✇❤♦ ❞✐❡ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡ ❤❛✈❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡

❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ t♦ ❜❡ ✐♥ ❛♥② ♦❢ t❤❡ t✇♦ st❛t❡s ❛❢t❡r ✶✵ ②❡❛rs

✶✷ ✴ ✹✺

slide-16
SLIDE 16

❆r❡❛ ✉♥❞❡r t❤❡ ❘❖❈ ❝✉r✈❡ ❢♦r ✶✵ ②❡❛r ♦✉t❝♦♠❡

❋♦r ❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s ♠❛r❦❡r ❳ ✭❡✳❣✳✱ ❛❣❡ ♦❢ ♣❛t✐❡♥t✮ AUC = P(Xcase > Xnon−case)

❘❡❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞✿ ❆❯❈✭✶✵ ②❡❛rs✮✿

❈❛s❡✿ ♣❛t✐❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ❜❡❢♦r❡ ✶✵ ②❡❛rs ◆♦♥✲❝❛s❡✿ ❡✐t❤❡r ♥♦♥✲❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ♦r ❛❧✐✈❡ ❢r❡❡ ♦❢ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡

❍②♣♦t❤❡t✐❝❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞✿ ❆❯❈✭✶✵ ②❡❛rs✮✿

❈❛s❡✿ ♣❛t✐❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ❜❡❢♦r❡ ✶✵ ②❡❛rs ◆♦♥✲❝❛s❡✿ ❛❧✐✈❡ ❢r❡❡ ♦❢ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡

✶✸ ✴ ✹✺

slide-17
SLIDE 17

❆r❡❛ ✉♥❞❡r t❤❡ ❘❖❈ ❝✉r✈❡ ❢♦r ✶✵ ②❡❛r ♦✉t❝♦♠❡

❋♦r ❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s ♠❛r❦❡r ❳ ✭❡✳❣✳✱ ❛❣❡ ♦❢ ♣❛t✐❡♥t✮ AUC = P(Xcase > Xnon−case)

❘❡❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞✿ ❆❯❈✭✶✵ ②❡❛rs✮✿

◮ ❈❛s❡✿ ♣❛t✐❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ❜❡❢♦r❡ ✶✵

②❡❛rs

◮ ◆♦♥✲❝❛s❡✿ ❡✐t❤❡r ♥♦♥✲❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ♦r ❛❧✐✈❡ ❢r❡❡ ♦❢

❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡

❍②♣♦t❤❡t✐❝❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞✿ ❆❯❈✭✶✵ ②❡❛rs✮✿

◮ ❈❛s❡✿ ♣❛t✐❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ❜❡❢♦r❡ ✶✵

②❡❛rs

◮ ◆♦♥✲❝❛s❡✿ ❛❧✐✈❡ ❢r❡❡ ♦❢ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡

✶✸ ✴ ✹✺

slide-18
SLIDE 18

■♥ t❤❡ ❤②♣♦t❤❡t✐❝❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞ ❛❣❡ ✐s ❛ ❝r❛③② ❣♦♦❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t♦r

Years since inclusion Absolute risk 5 10 0 % 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 % Age 50 60 70 80 90

Cardiovascular disease/mortality

Years since inclusion Absolute risk 5 10 0 % 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 % Age 50 60 70 80 90

Non−cardiovascular mortality Hypothetical world: AUC(10yrs)=83.5 % Real world: AUC(10yrs)=68.9 %

✶✹ ✴ ✹✺

slide-19
SLIDE 19

❆♥❛❧♦❣② ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❧✐✈✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝②❝❧✐♥❣

✶✺ ✴ ✹✺

slide-20
SLIDE 20

❙♣❡❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❤❛③❛r❞

❙♣❡❡❞ ✐s t❤❡ r❛t❡ ❛t ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛♥ ♦❜❥❡❝t ❝♦✈❡rs ❞✐st❛♥❝❡✳

◮ ❆ ❢❛st✲♠♦✈✐♥❣ ♦❜❥❡❝t ❤❛s ❛ ❤✐❣❤ s♣❡❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝♦✈❡rs ❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡❧②

❧❛r❣❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ✐♥ ❛ ❣✐✈❡♥ ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢ t✐♠❡

◮ ❆ s❧♦✇✲♠♦✈✐♥❣ ♦❜❥❡❝t ❝♦✈❡rs ❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡❧② s♠❛❧❧ ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢

❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢ t✐♠❡✳ ❍❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ✐s t❤❡ s♣❡❡❞ ❛t ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❣❡ts ❛ ❞✐s❡❛s❡ ♦r ❞✐❡s✳ ❆♥ ❡①♣♦s❡❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❤❛s ❛ ❤✐❣❤ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ❣❡t ❞✐s❡❛s❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡❧② ❧❛r❣❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ✇✐t❤✐♥ ❛ ❣✐✈❡♥ t✐♠❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✳ ❆ ♥♦♥✲❡①♣♦s❡❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❤❛s ❛ ❧♦✇ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ❣❡t ❞✐s❡❛s❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡❧② s♠❛❧❧ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ t✐♠❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✳

✶✻ ✴ ✹✺

slide-21
SLIDE 21

❙♣❡❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❤❛③❛r❞

❙♣❡❡❞ ✐s t❤❡ r❛t❡ ❛t ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛♥ ♦❜❥❡❝t ❝♦✈❡rs ❞✐st❛♥❝❡✳

◮ ❆ ❢❛st✲♠♦✈✐♥❣ ♦❜❥❡❝t ❤❛s ❛ ❤✐❣❤ s♣❡❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝♦✈❡rs ❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡❧②

❧❛r❣❡ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ✐♥ ❛ ❣✐✈❡♥ ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢ t✐♠❡

◮ ❆ s❧♦✇✲♠♦✈✐♥❣ ♦❜❥❡❝t ❝♦✈❡rs ❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡❧② s♠❛❧❧ ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢

❞✐st❛♥❝❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢ t✐♠❡✳ ❍❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ✐s t❤❡ s♣❡❡❞ ❛t ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❣❡ts ❛ ❞✐s❡❛s❡ ♦r ❞✐❡s✳

◮ ❆♥ ❡①♣♦s❡❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❤❛s ❛ ❤✐❣❤ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ❣❡t ❞✐s❡❛s❡❞

✇✐t❤ ❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡❧② ❧❛r❣❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ✇✐t❤✐♥ ❛ ❣✐✈❡♥ t✐♠❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✳

◮ ❆ ♥♦♥✲❡①♣♦s❡❞ ♣❡rs♦♥ ❤❛s ❛ ❧♦✇ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ✇✐❧❧ ❣❡t

❞✐s❡❛s❡❞ ✇✐t❤ ❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡❧② s♠❛❧❧ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ✇✐t❤✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ t✐♠❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✳

✶✻ ✴ ✹✺

slide-22
SLIDE 22

❙♣❡❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥

■❢ ✇❡ ❦♥♦✇ t❤❡ ✭❛✈❡r❛❣❡✮ s♣❡❡❞ ♦❢ ❛ ❝②❝❧✐st ♦♥ t❤❡ r♦❛❞ ❢r♦♠ ♣❧❛❝❡ ❆ t♦ ♣❧❛❝❡ ❇ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t❡ t❤❡ ✭❡①♣❡❝t❡❞✮ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❝②❝❧✐st ✇♦✉❧❞ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❝②❝❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ❆ t♦ ❇✳ ❚❤❡ s♣❡❡❞ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ❛❧♦♥❣ t❤❡ r♦❛❞ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ❣r❛❞✐❡♥t ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r t❤✐♥❣s✱ t❤❡ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ s♣❡❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ r♦❛❞✳

✶✼ ✴ ✹✺

slide-23
SLIDE 23

❙♣❡❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥

■❢ ✇❡ ❦♥♦✇ t❤❡ ✭❛✈❡r❛❣❡✮ s♣❡❡❞ ♦❢ ❛ ❝②❝❧✐st ♦♥ t❤❡ r♦❛❞ ❢r♦♠ ♣❧❛❝❡ ❆ t♦ ♣❧❛❝❡ ❇ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t❡ t❤❡ ✭❡①♣❡❝t❡❞✮ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❝②❝❧✐st ✇♦✉❧❞ ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❝②❝❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ❆ t♦ ❇✳ ❚❤❡ s♣❡❡❞ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ❛❧♦♥❣ t❤❡ r♦❛❞ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ❣r❛❞✐❡♥t ❛♥❞ ♦t❤❡r t❤✐♥❣s✱ t❤❡ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✐s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ s♣❡❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ r♦❛❞✳

✶✼ ✴ ✹✺

slide-24
SLIDE 24

❍❛③❛r❞ ❛♥❞ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦

■❢ ✇❡ ❦♥♦✇ t❤❡ ✭❛✈❡r❛❣❡✮ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ♦❢ ❛ ♣❡rs♦♥ ✐♥ ❛ t✐♠❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❞❛t❡ ❆ ❛♥❞ ❞❛t❡ ❇ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t❡ t❤❡ ✭❡①♣❡❝t❡❞✮ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣❡rs♦♥ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ str♦❦❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❡s ❆ ❛♥❞ ❇✳ ❚❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ♦✈❡r t✐♠❡ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐s♣♦s✐t✐♦♥✱ ❡①♣♦s✉r❡ ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❡❛s❡✱ t❤❡ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ str♦❦❡ ✐s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧✳

✶✽ ✴ ✹✺

slide-25
SLIDE 25

❍❛③❛r❞ ❛♥❞ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦

■❢ ✇❡ ❦♥♦✇ t❤❡ ✭❛✈❡r❛❣❡✮ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ♦❢ ❛ ♣❡rs♦♥ ✐♥ ❛ t✐♠❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❞❛t❡ ❆ ❛♥❞ ❞❛t❡ ❇ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t❡ t❤❡ ✭❡①♣❡❝t❡❞✮ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② t❤❛t t❤❡ ♣❡rs♦♥ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ str♦❦❡ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❡s ❆ ❛♥❞ ❇✳ ❚❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ♦✈❡r t✐♠❡ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ ♣r❡❞✐s♣♦s✐t✐♦♥✱ ❡①♣♦s✉r❡ ❛♥❞ ❞✐s❡❛s❡✱ t❤❡ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ str♦❦❡ ✐s ❛ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❧❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧✳

✶✽ ✴ ✹✺

slide-26
SLIDE 26

❈♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥

❙✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❡ s♣❡❡❞ ♦❢ ❛ ❝②❝❧✐st ✐s ♣✐❡❝❡✲✇✐s❡ ❝♦♥st❛♥t ♦♥ t❤❡ r♦❛❞ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❆ ❛♥❞ ❇✿ ❙❡❝t✐♦♥ ❉✐st❛♥❝❡ ✭❦♠✮ ❙♣❡❡❞ ✭❦♠✴❤✮ ❉✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✭♠✐♥✮ ❆ ✕❃ ❛ ✶✵ ✶✺ ✹✵✳✵ ❛ ✕❃ ❜ ✷✵ ✷✵ ✻✵✳✵ ❜ ✕❃ ❇ ✷✵ ✷✷ ✺✹✳✺

◮ ❚♦t❛❧ ❞✐st❛♥❝❡✿ ✺✵ ❦♠ ◮ ❚♦t❛❧ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥✿ ✶✺✹✳✺ ♠✐♥✉t❡s

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥✿ ❚❤❡ ❝②❝❧✐st ♥❡❡❞s ✶✺✹✳✺ ♠✐♥✉t❡s t♦ ❝②❝❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ❆ t♦ ❇✳

✶✾ ✴ ✹✺

slide-27
SLIDE 27

❈♦♠♣✉t✐♥❣ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦

❙✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❡ str♦❦❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ♦❢ ❛ ♣❛t✐❡♥t ✐s ♣✐❡❝❡✲✇✐s❡ ❝♦♥st❛♥t ✐♥ t❤❡ t✐♠❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❆ ❛♥❞ ❇✿ ■♥t❡r✈❛❧ ❉✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✭♠t❤✮ ❍❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ✭✪✴♠t❤✮ ❆❜s✳ r✐s❦ ✭✪✮ ❆ ✕❃ ❛ ✶✵ ✶✳✺ ✶✸✳✾ ❛ ✕❃ ❜ ✷✵ ✷✳✵ ✸✸✳✵ ❜ ✕❃ ❇ ✷✵ ✷✳✷ ✸✺✳✻

◮ ❚♦t❛❧ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥✿ ✺✵ ♠♦♥t❤s ◮ ❚♦t❛❧ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦✿ ✻✷✳✽✪

❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥✿ ✶✲ ✭✶✲✵✳✶✸✾✮✭✶✲✵✳✸✸✮✭✶✲✵✳✸✺✻✮ ❂ ✵✳✻✷✽ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥✿ ❚❤❡ ♣❛t✐❡♥t ✇✐❧❧ ❡①♣❡r✐❡♥❝❡ ❛ str♦❦❡ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ✻✷✳✽✪ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❞❛t❡ ❆ ❛♥❞ ❞❛t❡ ❇✳

✷✵ ✴ ✹✺

slide-28
SLIDE 28

❊✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❞♦♣✐♥❣

❙✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ❝②❝❧✐st ❛s ❜❡❢♦r❡ ❦♥♦✇s ❛ ✇❛② t♦ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ t❤❡ s♣❡❡❞ ❜② ✶✵✪✿ ❙❡❝t✐♦♥ ❉✐st❛♥❝❡ ✭❦♠✮ ❙♣❡❡❞ ✭❦♠✴❤✮ ❉✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✭♠✐♥✮ ❆ ✕❃ ❛ ✶✵ ✶✻✳✺ ✸✻✳✹ ❛ ✕❃ ❜ ✷✵ ✷✷✳✵ ✺✹✳✺ ❜ ✕❃ ❇ ✷✵ ✷✹✳✷ ✹✾✳✻

◮ ❚♦t❛❧ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❞♦♣✐♥❣✿ ✶✺✹✳✺ ♠✐♥✉t❡s ◮ ❚♦t❛❧ ❞✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ ❞♦♣✐♥❣✿ ✶✹✵✳✺ ♠✐♥✉t❡s

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥✿ ❲✐t❤ ❞♦♣✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❝②❝❧✐st ♥❡❡❞s ✶✹ ♠✐♥✉t❡s ✭✾✳✶✪✮ ❧❡ss t♦ ❝②❝❧❡ ❢r♦♠ ❆ t♦ ❇✳

✷✶ ✴ ✹✺

slide-29
SLIDE 29

❊✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❛❣✐♥❣

❙✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣❛t✐❡♥t ❛s ❜❡❢♦r❡ ✐s ♦♥❡ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞❡r ❛♥❞ t❤✐s ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ♦❢ str♦❦❡ ❜② ✶✵✪ ✭❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t✐♦❂✶✳✶✮✿ ■♥t❡r✈❛❧ ❉✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✭♠t❤✮ ❍❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ✭✪✴♠t❤✮ ❆❜s✳ r✐s❦ ✭✪✮ ❆ ✕❃ ❛ ✶✵ ✶✳✻✺ ✶✺✳✷ ❛ ✕❃ ❜ ✷✵ ✷✳✷✵ ✸✺✳✻ ❜ ✕❃ ❇ ✷✵ ✷✳✹✷ ✸✽✳✹ ❚♦t❛❧ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❛❣❡✿ ✻✷✳✽✪ ❚♦t❛❧ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦ ♦♥❡ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞❡r✿ ✻✻✳✹✪ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥✿ ✶✲ ✭✶✲✵✳✶✺✷✮✭✶✲✵✳✸✺✻✮✭✶✲✵✳✸✽✹✮ ❂ ✵✳✻✻✹ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥✿ ❊❛❝❤ ②❡❛r ♦❢ ❛❣❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ str♦❦❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❞❛t❡ ❆ ❛♥❞ ❞❛t❡ ❇ ❜② ✸✳✻ ✪✳

✷✷ ✴ ✹✺

slide-30
SLIDE 30

❊✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❛❣✐♥❣

❙✉♣♣♦s❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣❛t✐❡♥t ❛s ❜❡❢♦r❡ ✐s ♦♥❡ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞❡r ❛♥❞ t❤✐s ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ♦❢ str♦❦❡ ❜② ✶✵✪ ✭❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t✐♦❂✶✳✶✮✿ ■♥t❡r✈❛❧ ❉✉r❛t✐♦♥ ✭♠t❤✮ ❍❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ✭✪✴♠t❤✮ ❆❜s✳ r✐s❦ ✭✪✮ ❆ ✕❃ ❛ ✶✵ ✶✳✻✺ ✶✺✳✷ ❛ ✕❃ ❜ ✷✵ ✷✳✷✵ ✸✺✳✻ ❜ ✕❃ ❇ ✷✵ ✷✳✹✷ ✸✽✳✹

◮ ❚♦t❛❧ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦ ♣r❡✈✐♦✉s ❛❣❡✿ ✻✷✳✽✪ ◮ ❚♦t❛❧ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦ ♦♥❡ ②❡❛r ♦❧❞❡r✿ ✻✻✳✹✪

❝❛❧❝✉❧❛t✐♦♥✿ ✶✲ ✭✶✲✵✳✶✺✷✮✭✶✲✵✳✸✺✻✮✭✶✲✵✳✸✽✹✮ ❂ ✵✳✻✻✹ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥✿ ❊❛❝❤ ②❡❛r ♦❢ ❛❣❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ str♦❦❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❞❛t❡ ❆ ❛♥❞ ❞❛t❡ ❇ ❜② ✸✳✻ ✪✳

✷✷ ✴ ✹✺

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Relative Risks for Stroke by Age, Sex, and Population Based

  • n Follow-Up of 18 European Populations in the

MORGAM Project

Kjell Asplund, MD, PhD; Juha Karvanen, DSc(Tech); Simona Giampaoli, MD; Pekka Jousilahti, MD, PhD; Matti Niemela ¨, MD; Grazyna Broda, MD; Giancarlo Cesana, MD; Jean Dallongeville, MD; Pierre Ducimetriere, MD; Alun Evans, MD; Jean Ferrie `res, MD; Bernadette Haas, MD; Torben Jorgensen, MD; Abdonas Tamosiunas, MD; Diego Vanuzzo, MD; Per-Gunnar Wiklund, MD, PhD; John Yarnell, MD; Kari Kuulasmaa, PhD; Sangita Kulathinal, PhD; for the MORGAM Project

Background and Purpose—Within the framework of the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) Project, the variations in impact of classical risk factors of stroke by population, sex, and age were analyzed. Methods—Follow-up data were collected in 43 cohorts in 18 populations in 8 European countries surveyed for cardiovascular risk factors. In 93 695 persons aged 19 to 77 years and free of major cardiovascular disease at baseline, total observation years were 1 234 252 and the number of stroke events analyzed was 3142. Hazard ratios were calculated by Cox regression analyses. Results—Each year of age increased the risk of stroke (fatal and nonfatal together) by 9% (95% CI, 9% to 10%) in men and by 10% (9% to 10%) in women. A 10-mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure involved a similar increase in risk in men (28%; 24% to 32%) and women (25%; 20% to 29%). Smoking conferred a similar excess risk in women (104%; 78% to 133%) and in men (82%; 66% to 100%). The effect of increasing body mass index was very modest. Higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels decreased the risk of stroke more in women (hazard ratio per mmol/L 0.58; 0.49 to 0.68) than in men (0.80; 0.69 to 0.92). The impact of the individual risk factors differed somewhat between countries/regions with high blood pressure being particularly important in central Europe (Poland and Lithuania). Conclusions—Age, sex, and region-specific estimates of relative risks for stroke conferred by classical risk factors in various regions of Europe are provided. From a public health perspective, an important lesson is that smoking confers a high risk for stroke across Europe. (Stroke. 2009;40:2319-2326.) Key Words: blood pressure cholesterol cohort studies smoking stroke risk factors

T

he appraisal of stroke risk in populations or individuals is based on the recognition that all cardiovascular disorders are multifactorial in nature. The most widely used risk score statistical techniques.1 The Framingham stroke risk score has been used extensively when international and national guide- lines for cardiovascular prevention have been developed.

✷✸ ✴ ✹✺

slide-32
SLIDE 32

▼❖❘●❆▼ ♣r♦❥❡❝t ✭❆s♣❧✉♥❞ ❡t ❛❧✳✮

❉✐s❝✉ss✐♦♥

❊rr♦r✿ ❛ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t✐♦ ✐s ♥♦t ❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❡ r✐s❦

✷✹ ✴ ✹✺

slide-33
SLIDE 33

❈♦♠♣❡t✐♥❣ r✐s❦

❙♣❡❡❞ ❂ ✵

❈❡♥s♦r❡❞

❙♣❡❡❞ ❂ ❄

✷✺ ✴ ✹✺

slide-34
SLIDE 34

❈♦♠♣❡t✐♥❣ r✐s❦s

❲❤❛t ❤❛♣♣❡♥s✿

◮ ❆ ❝②❝❧✐st ❝❛♥ ❤❛✈❡ ❛♥ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t ♦r ❣❡t ✐♥❥✉r❡❞✳

❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s✿

◮ ❛❢t❡r t❤❡ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t t❤❡ s♣❡❡❞ ✐s ③❡r♦✳

❉❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣✿

◮ ❚♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ❝❤❛♥❝❡s ♦❢ ❛ ❝②❝❧✐sts t♦ ✇✐♥ ❛ r❛❝❡✱ ♦♥❡ ❤❛s t♦

❝♦♠❜✐♥❡ t❤❡ s♣❡❡❞ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ❛♥ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t✴✐♥❥✉r②✳

✷✻ ✴ ✹✺

slide-35
SLIDE 35

❈♦♠♣❡t✐♥❣ r✐s❦s

❲❤❛t ❤❛♣♣❡♥s✿

◮ ❆ ♣❛t✐❡♥t ❝❛♥ ❞✐❡ ✕ ❢r❡❡ ❢r♦♠ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✳

❈♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s✿

◮ ❛❢t❡r ❞❡❛t❤ t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ♦❢ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t②

✐s ③❡r♦✳ ❉❡❝✐s✐♦♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣✿

◮ ❚♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t②✱ ♦♥❡

❤❛s t♦ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡ t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ♦❢ ❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ r❛t❡ ♦❢ ❞❡❛t❤ ❞✉❡ t♦ ♦t❤❡r ❝❛✉s❡s✳

✷✼ ✴ ✹✺

slide-36
SLIDE 36

❊st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✶✵✲②❡❛r ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❈❱❉ r✐s❦

F✶(✶✵|X) = ❆❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❈❱❉ ✐♥ ✶✵ ②❡❛rs ✶✵

❡①♣

s

{ˆ λ✶(u|X) + ˆ λ✷(u|X)}❞u

  • ◆♦ ❡✈❡♥t ♦❢ ❛♥② ❝❛✉s❡ ✉♥t✐❧ s

ˆ λ✶(s|X)

❈❱❉ ❛t s

❞s.

◮ ❈♦① r❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥ ❢♦r ❈❱❉ ❤❛③❛r❞✿

ˆ λ✶(u|X) = ˆ λ✵✶(u) ❡①♣(ˆ βX)

◮ ❈♦① r❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ❤❛③❛r❞✿

ˆ λ✷(u|X) = ˆ λ✵✷(u) ❡①♣(ˆ γX)

✷✽ ✴ ✹✺

slide-37
SLIDE 37

❊✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡r ❳

❆ss✉♠❡ t❤❛t t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ ♦❢ ❈❱❉ ✐s ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡❞ ✇❤❡♥ ❳ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s

❈❛s❡ ✶✿ ■♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❳ ❤❛s ♥♦ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉

⇒ ❚❤❡r❡ ✐s ❛ ♦♥❡✲t♦✲♦♥❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❳ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❳ ♦♥ t❤❡ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦✳

❈❛s❡ ✷✿ ■♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❳ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉

⇒ ▼♦r❡ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ❡✈❡♥ts ♠❛❦❡ ❈❱❉ ❡✈❡♥ts ❧❡ss ❧✐❦❡❧②✳

❈❛s❡ ✸✿ ■♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❳ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡s t❤❡ ❤❛③❛r❞ ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉

⇒ ▲❡ss ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ❡✈❡♥ts ♠❛❦❡ ❈❱❉ ❡✈❡♥ts ♠♦r❡ ❧✐❦❡❧②✳

✷✾ ✴ ✹✺

slide-38
SLIDE 38

❘❡✲❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ♠❛ss ✭❆❑❆✿ ■P❈❲✮

✸✵ ✴ ✹✺

slide-39
SLIDE 39

■♥ ❡✈❡♥t ❤✐st♦r② ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✱ t❤❡ ♦✉t❝♦♠❡ ❝♦♥s✐sts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡✈❡♥t t✐♠❡ ❛♥❞ ❡✈❡♥t t②♣❡✿

Time Status 1 event−free event Ti

✸✶ ✴ ✹✺

slide-40
SLIDE 40

❚❤❡ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ♥❡❡❞s t♦ ❞❡❛❧ ✇✐t❤ r✐❣❤t ❝❡♥s♦r❡❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s✿

Time Status

  • 1

Ci event−free event?

✸✷ ✴ ✹✺

slide-41
SLIDE 41

❘❡✲❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ r✐❣❤t ❛❧❣♦r✐t❤♠

■❞ ❚ ♠✐♥(T, C) ❊✈❡♥t ▼❛ss ❑❛♣❧❛♥✲▼❡✐❡r ✶ ✶✼ ✶✼ ✶

✶ ✻

✶✲✶

✷ ✷✸ ✷✸ ✶

✶ ✻

✶✲✷

✸ ✼✹ ✻✸ ✵ ✵ ✶✲✷

✹ ✻✻ ✻✻ ✶ ✭✶

✻ ✰ ✶ ✻ ✯ ✶ ✸✮

✶✲ ✸

✻ − ✶ ✶✽

✺ ✾✾ ✼✼ ✵ ✵ ✶✲✸

✻ − ✶ ✶✽

✻ ✶✵✹ ✼✽ ✵ ✵ ✶✲✸

✻ − ✶ ✶✽

❚❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ♠❛ss ♦❢ s✉❜❥❡❝t ✸ ✐s ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡❞ ✐♥ ❡q✉❛❧ ♣✐❡❝❡s t♦ t❤❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ✸ s✉❜❥❡❝ts✳

✸✸ ✴ ✹✺

slide-42
SLIDE 42

❚❤❡ ❑❛♣❧❛♥✲▼❡✐❡r ❣r❛♣❤

Time Survival probability 20 40 60 80 0 % 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 % I II 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 Subjects: 1/6 1/6 1/6 + 1/18 ✸✹ ✴ ✹✺

slide-43
SLIDE 43

❚❤❡ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ♥❡❡❞s t♦ ❞❡❛❧ ✇✐t❤ ❝♦♠♣❡t✐♥❣ r✐s❦s✿

Time Status Competing risk at time Ti 1 event−free Ti

✸✺ ✴ ✹✺

slide-44
SLIDE 44

❘❡✲❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ r✐❣❤t ❛❧❣♦r✐t❤♠

■❞ ❚ ♠✐♥(T, C) ❊✈❡♥t ▼❛ss ❆❛❧❡♥✲❏♦❤❛♥s❡♥ ✶ ✶✼ ✶✼ ❈❱❉

✶ ✻ ✶ ✻

✷ ✷✸ ✷✸ ❈❱❉

✶ ✻ ✷ ✻

✸ ✻✸ ✻✸ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ✵

✷ ✻

✹ ✻✻ ✻✻ ❈❱❉

✶ ✻ ✸ ✻

✺ ✾✾ ✼✼ ❝❡♥s♦r❡❞ ✵

✸ ✻

✻ ✶✵✹ ✼✽ ❝❡♥s♦r❡❞ ✵

✸ ✻

❚❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ♠❛ss ♦❢ s✉❜❥❡❝t ✸ ✐s ◆❖❚ ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡❞ ✐♥ ❡q✉❛❧ ♣✐❡❝❡s t♦ t❤❡ r❡♠❛✐♥✐♥❣ ✸ s✉❜❥❡❝ts ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ r❡❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞ t❤❡ s✉❜❥❡❝t ✐s ❞❡❛❞✳

✸✻ ✴ ✹✺

slide-45
SLIDE 45

❚❤❡ ❆❛❧❡♥✲❏♦❤❛♥s❡♥ ❣r❛♣❤

Time Absolute risk 20 40 60 80 0 % 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 % II 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 Subjects: 1/6 1/6 1/6 ✸✼ ✴ ✹✺

slide-46
SLIDE 46

❲❤② ❛❣❡ ✐s ❛ ❝r❛③② ❣♦♦❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t♦r

✸✽ ✴ ✹✺

slide-47
SLIDE 47

■♥ t❤❡ ❤②♣♦t❤❡t✐❝❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞ ❛❣❡ ✐s ❛ ❝r❛③② ❣♦♦❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t♦r

Years since inclusion Absolute risk 5 10 0 % 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 % Age 50 60 70 80 90

Cardiovascular disease/mortality

Years since inclusion Absolute risk 5 10 0 % 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 % Age 50 60 70 80 90

Non−cardiovascular mortality Hypothetical world: AUC(10yrs)=83.5 % Real world: AUC(10yrs)=68.9 %

✸✾ ✴ ✹✺

slide-48
SLIDE 48

❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥

❆❯❈✭✶✵✮ ✐s ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ❜②✿

  • cases
  • non−cases W ∗ ✶{Xcase > Xnon−case}
  • cases
  • non−cases W

■♥ t❤❡ ❤②♣♦t❤❡t✐❝❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ❡①✐st✿

◮ ❧❡ss ♥♦♥✲❝❛s❡s ◮ ❣r❡❛t❡r ❝❡♥s♦r✐♥❣ ✇❡✐❣❤ts ❲

■♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s t❤❡ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ❞❡❛t❤

✹✵ ✴ ✹✺

slide-49
SLIDE 49

❊①♣❧❛♥❛t✐♦♥

❆❯❈✭✶✵✮ ✐s ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ❜②✿

  • cases
  • non−cases W ∗ ✶{Xcase > Xnon−case}
  • cases
  • non−cases W

■♥ t❤❡ ❤②♣♦t❤❡t✐❝❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ♠♦rt❛❧✐t② ❞♦❡s ♥♦t ❡①✐st✿

◮ ❧❡ss ♥♦♥✲❝❛s❡s ◮ ❣r❡❛t❡r ❝❡♥s♦r✐♥❣ ✇❡✐❣❤ts ❲

■♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❛❣❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡s t❤❡ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ❞❡❛t❤

✹✵ ✴ ✹✺

slide-50
SLIDE 50

❚♦② ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✿ ♦♥❧② ♦♥❡ ❝❛s❡

❘❡❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞

❈❱❉ ❈❛s❡ ✭❛❣❡✮ ◆♦♥✲❝❛s❡ ✭❛❣❡✮ ❖✉t❝♦♠❡ ❈♦♥❝♦r❞❛♥t ❲ ✺✻ ✹✸ ❛❧✐✈❡ ❨❡s ❂ ✶ ✺✻ ✺✸ ❛❧✐✈❡ ❨❡s ❂ ✶ ✺✻ ✻✵ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ◆♦ ❂ ✶ ✺✻ ✽✶ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ◆♦ ❂ ✶ ❆❯❈ ✺✵✳✵✪

❍②♣♦t❤❡t✐❝❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞

❈❱❉ ❈❛s❡ ✭❛❣❡✮ ◆♦♥✲❝❛s❡ ✭❛❣❡✮ ❖✉t❝♦♠❡ ❈♦♥❝♦r❞❛♥t ❲✶ ✺✻ ✹✸ ❛❧✐✈❡ ❨❡s ❃✶ ✺✻ ✺✸ ❛❧✐✈❡ ❨❡s ❃✶ ✺✻ ✻✵ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ❯♥❦♥♦✇♥ ✵ ✺✻ ✽✶ ♥♦♥✲❈❱❉ ❯♥❦♥♦✇♥ ✵ ❆❯❈ ✶✵✵✪

✹✶ ✴ ✹✺

slide-51
SLIDE 51

❘❡❛❧ ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✿ ✷✹✲❤♦✉r ❜❧♦♦❞♣r❡ss✉r❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡♠❡♥ts

❈❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t②

❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❯♥✐ts ❍❛③❛r❞❘❛t✐♦ ❈■✳✾✺ ♣✲✈❛❧✉❡ ❛❣❡ ✶✳✵✽ ❬✶✳✵✼❀✶✳✶✵❪ ❁✵✳✵✵✶ s❡① ▼❛❧❡ ✶✳✵✵ ✕ ✕ ❋❡♠❛❧❡ ✵✳✺✺ ❬✵✳✹✸❀✵✳✼✶❪ ❁✵✳✵✵✶ ❞❛②t✐♠❡❙❇P ✶✳✵✷ ❬✶✳✵✷❀✶✳✵✸❪ ❁✵✳✵✵✶

◆♦♥✲❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ♠♦rt❛❧✐t②

❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❯♥✐ts ❍❛③❛r❞❘❛t✐♦ ❈■✳✾✺ ♣✲✈❛❧✉❡ ❛❣❡ ✶✳✵✾ ❬✶✳✵✼❀✶✳✶✵❪ ❁✵✳✵✵✶ s❡① ▼❛❧❡ ✶✳✵✵ ✕ ✕ ❋❡♠❛❧❡ ✵✳✽✾ ❬✵✳✻✻❀✶✳✶✾❪ ✵✳✹✸✺ ❞❛②t✐♠❡❙❇P ✶✳✵✶ ❬✶✳✵✵❀✶✳✵✷❪ ✵✳✷✼✽

✹✷ ✴ ✹✺

slide-52
SLIDE 52

❆❞❞❡❞ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ♥✐❣❤t t✐♠❡ ❜❧♦♦❞♣r❡ss✉r❡❄

❈❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ❞✐s❡❛s❡✴♠♦rt❛❧✐t②

❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❯♥✐ts ❍❛③❛r❞❘❛t✐♦ ❈■✳✾✺ ♣✲✈❛❧✉❡ ❛❣❡ ✶✳✵✽ ❬✶✳✵✼❀✶✳✶✵❪ ❁✵✳✵✵✶ s❡① ▼❛❧❡ ✶✳✵✵ ✕ ✕ ❋❡♠❛❧❡ ✵✳✺✹ ❬✵✳✹✷❀✵✳✼✵❪ ❁✵✳✵✵✶ ❞❛②t✐♠❡❙❇P ✶✳✵✵ ❬✵✳✾✾❀✶✳✵✷❪ ✵✳✻✹✸ ♥✐❣❤tt✐♠❡❙❇P ✶✳✵✷ ❬✶✳✵✶❀✶✳✵✹❪ ❁✵✳✵✵✶

◆♦♥✲❝❛r❞✐♦✈❛s❝✉❧❛r ♠♦rt❛❧✐t②

❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❯♥✐ts ❍❛③❛r❞❘❛t✐♦ ❈■✳✾✺ ♣✲✈❛❧✉❡ ❛❣❡ ✶✳✵✾ ❬✶✳✵✼❀✶✳✶✵❪ ❁✵✳✵✵✶ s❡① ▼❛❧❡ ✶✳✵✵ ✕ ✕ ❋❡♠❛❧❡ ✵✳✽✽ ❬✵✳✻✻❀✶✳✶✽❪ ✵✳✹✵✹ ❞❛②t✐♠❡❙❇P ✶✳✵✵ ❬✵✳✾✽❀✶✳✵✶❪ ✵✳✻✽✼ ♥✐❣❤tt✐♠❡❙❇P ✶✳✵✶ ❬✶✳✵✵❀✶✳✵✸❪ ✵✳✶✶✷

✹✸ ✴ ✹✺

slide-53
SLIDE 53

❘❡tr♦s♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ ❞✐s❝r✐♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜✐❧✐t② ✭✶✵ ②❡❛r ♦✉t❝♦♠❡✮

❘❡❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞

❆❯❈ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ✺✼✳✹ ✕ s❡① ✰ ❛❣❡ ✰ ♥✐❣❤tt✐♠❡❙❇P ✰ ❞❛②t✐♠❡❙❇P ✺✻✳✾ ✵✳✹ s❡① ✰ ❛❣❡ ✰ ❞❛②t✐♠❡❙❇P ✺✼✳✵ ✵✳✹ s❡① ✰ ❛❣❡ ✰ ♥✐❣❤tt✐♠❡❙❇P ✹✼✳✵ ✶✵✳✸ s❡① ✰ ♥✐❣❤tt✐♠❡❙❇P ✰ ❞❛②t✐♠❡❙❇P

❍②♣♦t❤❡t✐❝❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞

❆❯❈ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ▼♦❞❡❧ ✼✾✳✶ ✕ s❡① ✰ ❛❣❡ ✰ ♥✐❣❤tt✐♠❡❙❇P ✰ ❞❛②t✐♠❡❙❇P ✼✾✳✾ ✲✵✳✽ s❡① ✰ ❛❣❡ ✰ ❞❛②t✐♠❡❙❇P ✼✾✳✾ ✲✵✳✽ s❡① ✰ ❛❣❡ ✰ ♥✐❣❤tt✐♠❡❙❇P ✼✵✳✹ ✽✳✼ s❡① ✰ ♥✐❣❤tt✐♠❡❙❇P ✰ ❞❛②t✐♠❡❙❇P

✹✹ ✴ ✹✺

slide-54
SLIDE 54

❙✉♠♠❛r②

◮ ❆❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦s ✐♥ t❤❡ r❡❛❧ ✇♦r❧❞ ❛r❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① ♦❜❥❡❝ts ♦❢

♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ❛♥❞ t✐♠❡

◮ ❆❣❡ ✐s ❛ ✈❡r② ❣♦♦❞ ♣r❡❞✐❝t♦r ◮ Pr❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ r✐s❦s ❛♥❞ r❡tr♦s♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢

❞✐s❝r✐♠✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ❛❜✐❧✐t② ♥❡❡❞ t♦ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❢♦r ❝❡♥s♦r❡❞ ❞❛t❛ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❡t✐♥❣ r✐s❦s

◮ ❈❡♥s♦r❡❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ❞✐str✐❜✉t❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ♠❛ss t♦

✉♥❝❡♥s♦r❡❞ ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s

◮ ■♥ t❤✐s ✇♦r❧❞ t❤❡ r✐s❦ ♦❢ ❈❱❉ ❛❢t❡r ❞❡❛t❤ ✐s ③❡r♦

✹✺ ✴ ✹✺