Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q3:2019 Risenga Maluleke #StatsSA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q3:2019

Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General

#StatsSA

29,0%

29,1

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

South Africa’s unemployment rate increased by 0,1 of a percentage point to 29,1% in Q3 of 2019. The highest unemployment rate since the QLFS started in 2008

Unemployment rate from Q1:2008 to Q3:2019

2

25,4%

29,1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 24,5%

29,1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Unemployment rate from Q3:2009 to Q3:2019 27,5%

29,1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

10 Years 5 Years 1 Year

Q3 2009 Q3 2019

The unemployment rate has remained high over time. There has been 0,1 of a percentage point increase between Q2:2019 and Q3:2019.

Unemployment rate increased by

4,6 percentage points between

Q3:2009 and Q3:2019 Q3 2019 Q3 2014 Unemployment increased from 25,4% in Q3:2014 to 29,1% in Q3:2019 by

3,7 percentage points

Q3 2019 Q3 2018 Unemployment rate increased by 1,6

percentage points compared to

the same period last year

3

Unemployed Employed

16,4 6,7

2,8

12,7

Other NEA

Not Economically Active

Discouraged work seekers

15,5 million

ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time,

Labour force

23,1 million

38,6 million

People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds)

M M M

Employed Unemployed

South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at

29,1%

M

Increased by 0,1 of a ppt between Q2:2019 and Q3:2019

The working age population (15-64 years) in Q3:2019 was 38,6 million

4

2008

Other Not Economically Active Unemployed Employed Labour Force

+44 000 q/q

Discouraged work seekers Not Economically Active

2019 Changes between Q2:2019 and Q3:2019

5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000

Jan-Mar 08 Apr-Jun 08 Jul-Sep 08 Oct-Dec 08 Jan-Mar 09 Apr-Jun 09 Jul-Sep 09 Oct-Dec 09 Jan-Mar 10 Apr-Jun 10 Jul-Sep 10 Oct-Dec 10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-Jun 11 Jul-Sep 11 Oct-Dec 11 Jan-Mar 12 Apr-Jun 12 Jul-Sep 12 Oct-Dec 12 Jan-Mar 13 Apr-Jun 13 Jul-Sep 13 Oct-Dec 13 Jan-Mar 14 Apr-Jun 14 Jul-Sep 14 Oct-Dec 14 Jan-Mar 15 Apr-Jun 15 Jul-Sep 15 Oct-Dec 15 Jan-Mar 16 Apr-Jun 16 Jul-Sep 16 Oct-Dec 16 Jan-Mar 17 Apr-Jun 17 Jul-Sep 17 Oct-Dec 17 Jan-Mar 18 Apr-Jun 18 Jul-Sep 18 Oct-Dec 18 Jan-Mar 19 Apr-Jun 19 Jul-Sep 19

Employed Unemployed Not Economically Active

Labour market indicators between Q1:2008 and Q3:2019

• 35 000 q/q

+78 000 q/q

+62 000 q/q

The working age population (15 – 64 years) increased by 149 000 people between Q2:2019 and Q3:2019

5

EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR MARKET RATES

QLFS

Q3:2019 6

The number of employed persons increased by 62 000 to 16,4 million between Q2:2019 and Q3:2019

Number of employed From Q3:2009 to Q3:2019 The number of employed people increased by 2,6 million from 13,8 million in Q3:2009 to 16,4 million in Q3:2019

13,8 16,4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Million

15,1 16,4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Million

16,4 16,4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Million

10 Years 5 Years 1 Year

The number of employed people increased by 1,3 million from 15,1 million in Q3:2014 to 16,4 million in Q3:2019

Q3:2009 Q3:2019 Q3:2014 Q3:2019 Q3:2018 Q3:2019

The number of employed people decreased by 5 000 from 16,380 million in Q3:2018 to 16,375 million in Q3:2019

7

The Labour force participation rate increased by 3,5 percentage points from 56,4% in Q3:2009 to 59,9% in Q3:2019

42,6 42,4 56,4 59,9

35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 55,0 60,0 65,0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Employed / population ratio (Absorption) Labour force participation rate

Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed

• r unemployed.

Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed.

13,8 % Points difference 17,5% Points difference

Labour force participation and absorption rate, 2009-2019

8

Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate

Change: Percentage points Q2:2019 to Q3:2019

Labour market rates vary significantly depending on education level

Labour market rates by education level, Q3:2019 19,1% 8,2% 29,8% 34,4% 29,1%

Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total

68,4% 81,7% 48,3% 32,5% 42,4% 84,5% 89,1% 68,9% 49,6% 59,9%

+1,9 +0,1

• 0,3

+1,2 +0,4

• 0,3
• 0,9

+1,1 +0,6

• 0,2

0,0 +0,1

• 0,1

+0,4

• 0,9

+0,8

9

58,2% 36,1% 22,9% 17,2% 9,9% 29,1%

15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs

25,6% 74,4% 80,9% 75,5% 44,5% 59,9% 10,7% 47,5% 62,4% 62,5% 40,1% 42,4%

• 0,6

0,0

• 0,4

+0,5 +1,8

• 0,4

+0,1 +0,8

• 0,1
• 0,6
• 0,8

+0,2 +0,5 +0,4

• 0,4

Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate

Change: Percentage points Q2:2019 to Q3:2019

Labour market rates by age group, Q3:2019

The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 (36,1%) is more than double that of the 45-54 (17,2%) year olds.

10

15 – 24 years 35 – 64 years

Change: Percentage points Q2:2019 to Q3:2019

Unemployment rate by education level and age group, Q3:2019

The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level.

49,4% 33,6% 57,2% 62,6% 58,2%

Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total

28,3% 14,3% 33,7% 43,2% 36,1% +0,4 +0,9 +1,9 10,9% 3,8% 18,0% 24,6% 19,2% +3,6 +1,8 +1,4

• 0,1
• 7,9

+0,5 +0,4

• 0,2
• 0,1
• 0,7
• 1,4

+1,6

25 – 34 years

11

PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET)

QLFS

Q3:2019 12

Education Work

NEET

Those young people (15-34 years) who are categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population

?

Not in employment, education or training (NEET)

13

28,7% 30,4% 33,6% 34,3%

20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% Q3: 2018 Q3: 2019

NEET (15-24 years) by sex

Approximately 3,3 million (32,3%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,2 percentage points in Q3:2019 compared to Q3:2018.

FEMALE NEET Up by 0,7 of a percentage point MALE NEET Up by 1,7 percentage points

15-24 YEARS

14

28,1 29,1 29,8 30,1 32,3 34,7 34,8 35,5 35,8 38,8

WC GP LP FS RSA EC MP KZN NW NC

(+1,5) (+2,7) (+1,3) (+3,0) (-0,3) (+1,1) (+3,4) (+1,2) (-0,6) (+1,0) ( ) Y/Y Change

Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q3:2018 – Q3:2019)

NC recorded the highest rate of young people aged 15-24 years not in employment, education or training in Q3: 2019.

15

35,1% 36,9% 43,0% 44,1%

20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Q3: 2018 Q3: 2019 FEMALE NEET MALE NEET

NEET (15-34 years) by sex

Approximately 8,2 million (40,4%) out of 20,4 million young people aged 15-34 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,4 percentage points y/y.

Female NEET Up by 1,0 percentage point Male NEET Up by 1,8 percentage points

15-34 YEARS

16

Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year Change Q3:2018 – Q3:2019)

The NC province had the highest rate of young people aged 15-34 years not in employment, education or training at 45,3%. The rate increased by 3,1 percentage points

year-on-year. 32,4% 36,7% 40,4% 41,1% 41,1% 42,8% 43,3% 44,3% 44,8% 45,3%

WC GP RSA LP FS MP KZN NW EC NC

( ) Y/Y Change

(+3,1) (-0,4) (+3,0) (+1,3) (+2,1) (+3,0) (+4,2) (+1,4) (0,0) (+1,7)

17

EMPLOYMENT

QLFS

Q3:2019

38 000

Q/Q

35 000

The number of persons employed increased by 62 000 in Q3:2019 to 16,4 million Q/Q. Formal Sector (Non agricultural)

(11,2 million jobs)

Informal Sector (Non agricultural)

(3,0 million jobs)

Agriculture

(880 thousand jobs)

Private households

(1,3 million jobs)

increased by increased by decreased by increased by

43 000

Q/Q Q/Q 53 000 Q/Q

Trade, construction and agriculture have higher employment shares relative to their GDP contribution.

Share of Nominal GDP (Q2:2019)

24,1% 14,6% 19,4% 12,8% 4,1% 9,5% 3,1% 7,8% 4,5%

0,8% 2,6% 5,4% 6,0% 7,9% 8,2% 10,7% 15,2% 20,8% 22,5%

Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private Households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Services

Employment and GDP share per industry

Employment shares, Q3: 2019 20

• 30
• 24
• 21
• 18
• 8
• 4

35 38 38 56

Manufacturing Construction Trade Utilities Transport Finance Private households Agriculture Mining Community and social services

Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000)

• 163
• 23
• 21
• 10

4 13 20 38 41 103

Construction Utilities Transport Finance Community and social services Mining Private households Agriculture Manufacturing Trade

Year-on-year change (‘000) Employment gains were observed in Services, Mining, Agriculture and Private households (q/q). Largest declines were observed in Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and

Utilities.

Employment changes by industry

21

56 000

Mainly driven by gains in:  Human health activities.  S. A. defence force.  S. A. police services.

Services Agriculture Mining

Mainly driven by gains in:  Farming of animals

38 000

Q/Q Q/Q

Employment gains were mainly driven by services (56 000), mining (38 000), agriculture (38 000) and private households (35 000).

Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Gains

38 000

Q/Q

Private households

35 000

Q/Q

Mainly driven by gains in:  Mining of non-ferrous metal ore

22

30 000

Manufacturing Trade Construction

Mainly driven by losses in:  Retail trade not in stores  Retail trade in food, beverages and tobacco in specialised store

21 000

Employment losses were mainly driven by manufacturing, construction, trade and utilities.

Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Losses

24 000

Utilities

18 000

Mainly driven by losses in:  Building construction Mainly driven by losses in:  Production, collection and distribution of electricity

Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q

Mainly driven by losses in:  Manufacture of basic iron ore and steel

Employment share by

• ccupation, Q3:2019

Close to a third (29,3%) of all people employed in Q3:2019 were employed in elementary and domestic work occupations.

0,4% 5,9% 6,3% 8,2% 8,5% 8,8% 10,4% 11,7% 17,0% 23,0%

Skilled agriculture Professional Domestic worker Plant and machine operator Technician Manager Clerk Craft and related trade Sales and services Elementary

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0

24

The formal sector in South Africa accounted for 68,5% of total employment in Q3:2019.

Formal sector employment Q3:2009 Q3:2019

9,8M 11,2M 2,1M 3,0M

2 4 6 8 10 12

Millions

Formal sector employment Informal sector employment

Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend, increasing from 9,8 million in Q3:2009 to 11,2 million in Q3:2019

Informal sector employment increased from 2,1 million in Q3:2009 to 3,0 million in Q3:2019

Informal sector employment 25

UNEMPLOYMENT

QLFS

Q3:2019 26

4,5M 6,7M

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

70,9% 29,1% 60,3% 39,7%

The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,5 million in Q3:2009 to 6,7 million in Q3:2019. The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 60,3% in Q3:2009 to 70,9% in Q3:2019

Number of unemployed for one year or longer

Long Term Unemployed* Short Term Unemployed Number of unemployed

* Unemployed for a year or longer

Q3 2009 Q3 2019

M

27

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q3:2019 Q3:2019 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q3:2019 Q3:2019 30,9% 27,7%

SA: 29,1% 41,6% 35,9% SA: 38,5%

Official Unemployment Rate

29,1% (+0,1% Points Change Q/Q)

Expanded Unemployment Rate

38,5% (+0,0 % Point Change Q/Q)

10,3 million

people were unemployed in Q3:2019 An increase of 45 000 q/q

Expanded Definition includes the following

• Official unemployment (searched and available) 6,7 M
• Available to work but are/or
• Discouraged work-seekers

2,8 M

• Have other reasons for not searching

0,7 M

6,7 million

people were unemployed in Q3:2019 An increase of 78 000 q/q

28

7,4% 11,2% 22,5% 32,7% 29,0% 7,4% 13,3% 23,5% 32,8% 29,1%

White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes

Unemployment Rate by Population Group

Q3:2019 Q2:2019

6,1% 8,5% 22,1% 30,8% 27,1% 6,8% 10,6% 23,4% 31,3% 27,7%

Male Unemployment Rate By Population Group

Q3:2019 Q2:2019 Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%.

OFFICIAL unemployment rate

by population group and sex

Black African women are the most vulnerable with an unemployment rate of over 30%.

9,2% 16,2% 23,0% 35,0% 31,3% 8,1% 18,2% 23,7% 34,5% 30,9%

Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group

Q3:2019 Q2:2019

29

9,8% 15,5% 29,2% 43,0% 38,5% 9,3% 17,6% 28,6% 43,1% 38,5%

White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes

Expanded unemployment rate by population group

Q3:2019 Q2:2019

7,6% 12,3% 27,0% 39,5% 35,0% 8,4% 14,8% 27,9% 40,3% 35,9%

Male expanded unemployment rate

Q3:2019 Q2:2019

12,7% 21,2% 31,6% 46,9% 42,5% 10,5% 22,6% 29,3% 46,2% 41,6%

Female expanded unemployment rate

Q3:2019 Q2:2019

Irrespective of sex, the black African and coloured population groups remain vulnerable in the labour market

EXPANDED unemployment rate by

population group and sex

30

31 Official Expanded

EC recorded the highest unemployment rate in both official and expanded. LP, KZN and

NW provinces all have more than 14 % points difference between their expanded and official unemployment rates

Provincial unemployment rate: Official vs Expanded Q3:2019 41,9% 24,5% 41,4% 38,5% 43,0% 45,1% 35,1% 42,5% 43,9% 46,5% 21,4% 21,5% 25,9% 29,1% 29,8% 30,4% 31,0% 34,5% 35,3% 36,5%

LP WC KZN RSA NC NW GP FS MP EC

20,5% points difference 13,2% points difference 15,5% points difference 14,7% points difference

UNDERSTANDING NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE (NEA)

QLFS

Q3:2019 32

33

Student 40,8%

Home-maker

16,8%

Illness/disability

9,4%

Too old/young to work; 9,7%

Discouraged work seekers; 18,0%

Q2:2019 to Q3:2019 % Change

5 main reasons for NEA NEA

M M M M

15,5 M

Quarter-on-quarter changes Thousand Student 30 Homemaker 88 Illness/disability

• 103

Too young/too old to work

• 2

Discouraged work seekers 44 Other

• 47

Up by 0,3 of a % point Remained unchanged

Q2:2019 to Q3:2019 Change in levels

Up by 0,6 of a % point Up by 0,2 of a % point Down by 0,7

• f a % point

15,5 million people aged 15 – 64 years were not economically active. This is an increase of 9 000 q/q

Reasons why – Not economically active (NEA)

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS EMPLOYMENT LOSSES YOUTH

Employment gains were recorded in Services (56

000), Mining (38 000),

Agriculture (38 000) and Private households (35 000). Largest employment losses were observed in

Manufacturing (30 000), Construction

(24 000), Trade (21 000) and Utilities (18 000) Of the 10,3 million persons aged 15-24 years, 32,3% were not in employment, education or training.

Recap

Q3:2019

Unemployment rate increased by 0,1 of a percentage point to 29,1%

Absorption rate remained unchanged and labour force participation rate increased by 0,1

• f a percentage point

34

Ndzi hela kwala!

QLFS

Q3:2019 35