Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q2:2019 Risenga Maluleke #StatsSA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q2:2019

Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General

#StatsSA

27,6%

29,0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

South Africa’s unemployment rate increased by 1,4 percentage points to 29,0% in Q2 of 2019. The highest unemployment rate since Q1 of 2008

Unemployment rate from Q1:2008 to Q2:2019

25,5% 29,0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 23,2% 29,0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Unemployment rate from Q2:2009 to Q2:2019 27,2% 29,0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

10 Years 5 Years 1 Year

Q2 2009 Q2 2019

The unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high over time. There has been 1,4 percentage points increase between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019.

Unemployment rate increased by

5,8 percentage points between

Q2:2009 and Q2:2019 Q2 2019 Q2 2014 Unemployment increased from 25,5% in Q2:2014 to 29,0% in Q2:2019 by

3,5 percentage points

Q2 2019 Q2 2018 Unemployment rate increased by 1,8

percentage points compared to

the same period last year

Unemployed Employed

16,3 6,7

2,7

12,7

Other NEA

Not Economically Active

Discouraged work seekers

15,5 million

ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time,

Labour force

23,0 million

38,4 million

People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds)

M M M

Employed Unemployed

South Africa’s

• fficial

unemployment rate stands at

29,0%

M

Increased by 1,4 ppts between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019

The working age population (15-64 years) in Q2:2019 was 38,4 million

2008

Other Not Economically Active Unemployed Employed Labour Force

• 248 000 q/q

Discouraged work seekers Not Economically Active

2019 Changes between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019

5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000

Jan-Mar 08 Apr-Jun 08 Jul-Sep 08 Oct-Dec 08 Jan-Mar 09 Apr-Jun 09 Jul-Sep 09 Oct-Dec 09 Jan-Mar 10 Apr-Jun 10 Jul-Sep 10 Oct-Dec 10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-Jun 11 Jul-Sep 11 Oct-Dec 11 Jan-Mar 12 Apr-Jun 12 Jul-Sep 12 Oct-Dec 12 Jan-Mar 13 Apr-Jun 13 Jul-Sep 13 Oct-Dec 13 Jan-Mar 14 Apr-Jun 14 Jul-Sep 14 Oct-Dec 14 Jan-Mar 15 Apr-Jun 15 Jul-Sep 15 Oct-Dec 15 Jan-Mar 16 Apr-Jun 16 Jul-Sep 16 Oct-Dec 16 Jan-Mar 17 Apr-Jun 17 Jul-Sep 17 Oct-Dec 17 Jan-Mar 18 Apr-Jun 18 Jul-Sep 18 Oct-Dec 18 Jan-Mar 19 Apr-Jun 19

Employed Unemployed Not Economically Active

Labour market indicators between Q1:2008 and Q2:2019

• 77 000 q/q

+455 000 q/q

+21 000 q/q

The working age population (15 – 64 years) increased by 150 000 people between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019

EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR MARKET RATES

QLFS

Q2:2019

QLFS Q4:2018

The number of employed persons increased by 21 000 to 16,3 million in Q2:2019

Number of employed From Q2:2009 to Q2:2019 The number of employed people increased by 1,9 million from 14,4 million in Q2:2009 to 16,3 million in Q2:2019

14,4 16,3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Million

15,1 16,3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Million

16,3 16,3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Million

10 Years 5 Years 1 Year

The number of employed people increased by 25 thousand from 16,29 million in Q2:2018 to 16,31 million in Q2:2019 The number of employed people increased by 1,2 million from 15,1 million in Q2:2014 to 16,3 million in Q2:2019

Q2:2009 Q2:2019 Q2:2014 Q2:2019 Q2:2018 Q2:2019

44,5% 42,4% 57,9% 59,8%

35,0 45,0 55,0 65,0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Employed / population ratio (Absorption) Labour force participation rate

The Labour force participation rate increased by 1,9 percentage points from 57,9% in Q2:2009 to 59,8% in Q2:2019

Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed

• r unemployed.

Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed.

13,4 % Points difference 17,4% Points difference

Labour force participation and absorption rate, 2009-2019

Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate

Change: Percentage points Q1:2019 to Q2:2019

Labour market rates vary significantly depending on education level

Labour market rates by education level, Q2:2019 18,3% 9,1% 29,4% 34,5% 29,0%

Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total

69,3% 80,6% 47,8% 32,7% 42,4% 84,9% 88,7% 67,7% 49,9% 59,8%

+1,9 +1,0 +1,1 +1,3 +0,2 +0,5

• 0,6
• 0,9

+0,5

• 0,3
• 0,2

+1,4 +2,0 +0,7 +1,2 +1,2

56,4% 35,6% 23,3% 17,2% 10,5% 29,0%

15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs

26,0% 74,0% 80,4% 75,3% 45,3% 59,8% 11,3% 47,6% 61,6% 62,4% 40,5% 42,4%

+0,4 +1,5 +1,5 +1,4 +1,2 +1,2

• 0,6
• 0,3
• 0,7

+0,2 +1,5 +0,6 +1,2 +0,5 +1,2

Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate

Change: Percentage points Q1:2019 to Q2:2019

Labour market rates by age group, Q2:2019

The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 (35,6%) is more than double that of the 45-54 (17,2%) year olds.

15 – 24 years 35 – 64 years

Change: Percentage points Q1:2019 to Q2:2019

Unemployment rate by education level and age group, Q2:2019

The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level.

57,3% 33,7% 55,8% 58,9% 56,4%

Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total

26,4% 13,4% 33,3% 42,8% 35,6% +0,9 +0,4 +1,2 9,3% 5,3% 18,1% 25,3% 19,4% +0,5 +1,2 +0,7

+2,7

+9,8 +1,4 +1,8 +1,3 +1,1 +2,0 +1,0 0,0

25 – 34 years

PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET)

QLFS

Q2:2019

Education Work

NEET

Those young people (15-34 years) who are categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population

?

Not in employment, education or training (NEET)

28,9% 30,5% 34,4% 34,1%

20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% Q2: 2018 Q2: 2019

NEET (15-24 years) by sex

Approximately 3,3 million (32,3%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 0,7 of a percentage point in Q2:2019 compared to Q2:2018.

FEMALE NEET Down by 0,2 of a percentage point MALE NEET Up by 1,6 percentage points

15-24 YEARS

28,1% 28,6% 30,4% 32,3% 33,2% 34,1% 34,5% 34,8% 35,4% 37,0% LP WC GP RSA FS MP EC KZN NW NC

(-3,4) (+0,2) (+0,5) (-1,1) (-0,3) (+0,7) (+1,8) (+4,7) (+0,6) (+1,4) ( ) Y/Y Change

Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q2:2018 – Q2:2019)

NC recorded the highest rate of young people aged 15-24 years not in employment, education or training in Q2: 2019.

35,0% 36,8% 43,6% 43,9%

20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Q2: 2018 Q2: 2019 FEMALE NEET MALE NEET

NEET (15-34 years) by sex

Approximately 8,2 million (40,3%) out of 20,4 million young people aged 15-34 years, were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,0 percentage point y/y.

Female NEET Up by 0,3 of a percentage point Male NEET Up by 1,8 percentage points

15-34 YEARS

Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year Change Q2:2018 – Q2:2019)

The NW province had the highest rate of young people aged 15-34 years not in employment, education or training at 45,9%. The rate increased by 1,8 percentage points

year-on-year. 32,6% 37,5% 38,7% 40,3% 41,5% 41,8% 42,9% 44,6% 45,2% 45,9%

WC GP LP RSA MP FS KZN EC NC NW

( ) Y/Y Change

(+1,8) (+0,7) (+1,5) (-0,3) (+4,5) (+1,3) (+1,0) (+1,5) (+0,4) (+1,9)

EMPLOYMENT

QLFS

Q2:2019

5 000 49 000

Q/Q

49 000

Q/Q

The number of persons employed increased by 21 000 in Q2:2019 to 16,3 million Q/Q. Formal Sector (Non agricultural)

(11,2 million jobs)

Informal Sector (Non agricultural)

(3,0 million jobs)

Agriculture

(842 thousand jobs)

Private households

(1,3 million jobs)

increased by decreased by increased by decreased by

Q/Q

114 000

Q/Q

Trade, construction and agriculture have higher employment shares relative to their GDP contribution.

Share of Nominal GDP (Q1:2019)

24,7% 15,0% 20,3% 13,1% 3,9% 9,7% 1,9% 7,6% 3,8%

0,9% 2,3% 5,2% 6,0% 7,7% 8,4% 11,0% 15,3% 21,0% 22,2%

Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private Households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Services

Employment and GDP share per industry

Employment shares, Q2: 2019

• 49
• 42
• 36
• 21

1 5 9 24 48 84

Private households Transport Mining Finance Utilities Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Community and social services Trade

Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000)

• 113
• 70
• 54
• 45
• 32
• 9
• 1

45 96 210

Construction Community and social services Mining Private households Transport Utilities Agriculture Manufacturing Finance Trade

Year-on-year change (‘000) The largest quarter-on-quarter employment gains were observed in trade, services and construction. Largest declines were observed in private households, transport, mining and

finance.

Employment changes by industry

84 000

Mainly driven by gains in:  Other retail trade.  Retail trade not in stores.  Restaurants, bars and canteens.

Trade Construction Services

Mainly driven by gains in:  Building of complete constructions and parts thereof

24 000

Q/Q Q/Q

Employment gains were mainly driven by trade (84 000), services (48 000), construction (24 000) and manufacturing (9 000).

Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Gains

48 000

Q/Q

Manufacturing

9 000

Q/Q

Mainly driven by gains in:  Other services activities  Education Mainly driven by gains in manufacture of:  Beverages  General purpose machinery  Structural metals  Basic iron and steel

49 000

Private households Mining Transport

Mainly driven by losses in:  Mining of non-ferrous metal ores

36 000

Employment losses were mainly driven by private households, transport, mining and finance.

Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Losses

42 000

Finance

21 000

Mainly driven by losses in:  Other land transport  Telecommunication Mainly driven by losses in:  Architectural, engineering and

• ther technical

activities  Legal, bookkeeping and auditing activities

Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q

R

Employment share by

• ccupation, Q2:2019

Close to a third (28,9%) of all people employed in Q2:2019 were employed in elementary and domestic work occupations.

0,3% 5,1% 6,1% 8,5% 8,8% 9,4% 10,5% 12,0% 16,5% 22,8%

Skilled agriculture Professional Domestic worker Plant and machine operator Technician Manager Clerk Craft and related trade Sales and services Elementary

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0

The formal sector in South Africa accounts for 68,5% of total employment.

10,1M 11,2M 2,2M 3,0M

2 4 6 8 10 12

Millions

Informal sector employment Formal sector employment

Informal sector employment increased from 2,2 million in Q2:2009 to 3,0 million in Q2:2019

Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend, increasing from 10,1 million in Q2:2009 to 11,2 million in Q2:2019

Q2:2009 Q2:2019

UNEMPLOYMENT

QLFS

Q2:2019

2,6M 4,3M 4,8M 1,7M 1,9M 1,9M

4,3M

6,7M

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

71,5% 28,5% 60,8% 39,2%

The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,3 million in Q2:2009 to 6,7 million in Q2:2019. The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 60,8% in Q2:2009 to 71,5% in Q2:2019

Number of unemployed for one year or longer

Long Term Unemployed* Short Term Unemployed Number of unemployed

* Unemployed for a year or longer

Q2 2009 Q2 2019

M

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q2:2009 Q2:2019

28,7%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q2:2019 Q2:2019 31.3% 27,1%

SA: 29,0% 42,5% 35,0% SA: 38,5%

Official Unemployment Rate

29,0% (+1,4 % Points Change Q/Q)

Expanded Unemployment Rate

38,5% (+0,5 % Point Change Q/Q)

10,2 million

people were unemployed in Q2:2019 An increase of 232 000 q/q

Expanded Definition includes the following

• Official unemployment (searched and available) 6,7 M
• Available to work but are/or
• Discouraged work-seekers

2,7 M

• Have other reasons for not searching

0,8 M

6,7 million

people were unemployed in Q2:2019 An increase of 455 000 q/q

6,6% 11,4% 22,2% 31,1% 27,6% 7,4% 11,2% 22,5% 32,7% 29,0%

White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes

Unemployment Rate by Population Group

Q2:2019 Q1:2019

6,4% 9,4% 21,4% 29,7% 26,1% 6,1% 8,5% 22,1% 30,8% 27,1%

Male Unemployment Rate By Population Group

Q2:2019 Q1:2019 Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%.

OFFICIAL unemployment rate

by population group and sex

Black African women are the most vulnerable with an unemployment rate of over 30%.

6,8% 15,2% 23,2% 32,8% 29,3% 9,2% 16,2% 23,0% 35,0% 31,3%

Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group

Q2:2019 Q1:2019

9,4% 15,9% 28,8% 42,5% 38,0% 9,8% 15,5% 29,2% 42,0% 38,5%

White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes

Expanded unemployment rate by population group

Q2:2019 Q1:2019

8,0% 12,5% 27,2% 39,4% 34,9% 7,6% 12,3% 27,0% 39,5% 35,0%

Male expanded unemployment rate

Q2:2019 Q1:2019

11,3% 21,8% 30,5% 45,9% 41,5% 12,7% 21,2% 31,6% 46,9% 42,5%

Female expanded unemployment rate

Q2:2019 Q1:2019

Irrespective of sex, the black African and coloured population groups remain vulnerable in the labour market

EXPANDED unemployment rate by

population group and sex

Official Expanded

Highest official unemployment rate recorded in EC and highest expanded unemployment rate recorded in NW. LP, KZN and NC provinces all have more than 15 % points

difference between their expanded and official unemployment rates

Provincial unemployment rate: Official vs Expanded Q2:2019 41,1% 23,8% 42,1% 38,5% 44,8% 35,0% 46,6% 41,6% 43,5% 46,5% 20,3% 20,4% 26,1% 29,0% 29,4% 31,1% 33,0% 34,4% 34,7% 35,4%

LP WC KZN RSA NC GP NW FS MP EC

20,8% points difference 15,4% points difference 16,0% points difference

UNDERSTANDING NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE (NEA)

QLFS

Q2:2019

Student 40,6%

Home-maker

16,3%

Illness/disability

10,1%

Too old/young to work; 9,7%

Discouraged work seekers; 17,8%

Q1:2019 to Q2:2019 % Change

5 main reasons for NEA NEA

M M M M

15,5 M

Quarter-on-quarter changes Thousand Student 143 Homemaker

• 86

Illness/disability

• 85

Too young/too old to work

• 42

Discouraged work seekers

• 248

Other

• 7

Down by 1,2 % points Down by 0,1

• f a % point

Q1:2019 to Q2:2019 Change in levels

Down by 0,2 of a % point Up by 1,7 % points Down by 0,3

• f a % point

15,5 million people aged 15 – 64 years were not economically active. This is a decrease of 326 000 q/q

Reasons why – Not economically active (NEA)

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS EMPLOYMENT LOSSES YOUTH

Unemployment rate increased by 1,4 percentage points to 29,0%

Absorption rate decreased by 0,2

• f a percentage point and labour

force participation rate increased by 1,0 percentage point Employment gains were recorded in Trade (84

000), Services (48 000),

Construction (24 000) and Manufacturing (9 000). Largest employment losses were observed in

Private HH (49 000),

Transport (42 00), Mining (36 000) and Finance (21 000) Of the 10,3 million persons aged 15-24 years, 32,3% were not in employment, education or training.

Recap

Q2:2019

Ndzi hela kwala!

QLFS

Q2:2019