Force Survey Q1:2018 Faizel Mohammed Stats SA QLFS Q1: 2018 The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Force Survey Q1:2018 Faizel Mohammed Stats SA QLFS Q1: 2018 The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q1:2018 Faizel Mohammed Stats SA QLFS Q1: 2018 The labour market Q1:2018 37,7 million People of working age in South Africa (15 64 year olds) Labour force Not Economically Active* 22,4 million 15,3

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SLIDE 1

QLFS Q1: 2018

Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q1:2018

Faizel Mohammed Stats SA

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SLIDE 2

QLFS Q1: 2018

Unemployed Employed

16,4 6,0

2,8

12,5

Other NEA

The labour market Q1:2018

Not Economically Active*

discouraged work seekers

15,3 million

ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time

Labour force

22,4 million

37,7 million

People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds)

M M M

Employed Unemployed

South Africa’s

  • fficial

unemployment rate stands at

26,7%

M

Unchanged btw Q4 2017 and Q1 2018

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SLIDE 3

QLFS Q1: 2018

0M 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M 35M 40M

2017 Q4 to 2018 Q1 Changes

2008

  • 403 000 q/q

+ 206 000 q/q + 100 000 q/q

Other Not Economically Active Unemployed Employed

Labour Force

There was an increase of 153 000 people of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) between Q4:2017 and Q1:2018 Q1 2018

+ 249 000 q/q

Discouraged work seekers

Not Economically Active

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SLIDE 4

QLFS Q1: 2018

EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR MARKET RATES

QLFS

Q1:2018

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SLIDE 5

QLFS Q1: 2018

Labour market dashboard Q1:2018

14,4 M 16,4 M

0 M 5 M 10 M 15 M

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

45,8% 43,5%

35% 40% 45% 50%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number

  • f

employed Absorption rate 59,6%

60,5% 58,8%

59,3%

50% 55% 60% 65%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Labour force participation rate*

The number of employed people increased from 14,4 million in Q1:2008 to 16,4 million in Q1:2018. Absorption rate increased in Q1:2018 to 43,5% (q/q) and has not recovered to level of 45,8% since 2008 The labour force participation rate increased by 0,5 percentage points to 59,3% in Q1:2018 from Q4 2017.

*Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed. *Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed.

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SLIDE 6

QLFS Q1: 2018

71,3% 82,2% 48,0% 34,3% 43,5%

15,6%

7,9%

28,2% 31,1%

26,7%

84,5% 89,2% 66,8% 49,8% 59,3%

  • 0,2

0,7 1,3

  • 1,4

1,4

  • 2,6
  • 0,5

0,5 1,9

  • 2,9

0,7

  • 0,9

Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate

Labour market rates by education level

Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018

Labour market rates vary significantly depending

  • n education level
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SLIDE 7

QLFS Q1: 2018

Labour market rates by age group

The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 is double that of the 45-54 year olds.

52,4% 33,0%

20,9%

16,1%

8,9% 26,7%

15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs

25,6%

73,8% 80,9% 74,0% 45,8% 59,3% 12,2% 49,4% 64,0% 62,1% 41,8% 43,5%

0,6 0,5 0,0

  • 0,4

1,3 0,7 0,2 0,7 0,8

  • 0,5

1,0 0,7 0,8 0,9

  • 0,3

Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate

Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018

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SLIDE 8

QLFS Q1: 2018

44,8% 33,5% 53,3% 53,6% 52,4%

Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total

23,3% 10,2% 33,0% 39,0% 33,0%

8,1% 4,7%

16,0%

22,7% 17,6%

Unemployment rate by education level and age group

The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level

0,0 2,7 7,5 2,0

  • 0,6

0,7

  • 0,5
  • 2,4

0,5

  • 0,1

1,0

  • 1,0

15 – 24 years 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years

Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018

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SLIDE 9

QLFS Q1: 2018

PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET)

QLFS

Q1:2018

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SLIDE 10

QLFS Q1: 2018

Education Work

NEET

Those young people (15-24 years) who are categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education.

Not in Employment, Education or Training

Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population

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SLIDE 11

QLFS Q1: 2018

  • 5,0

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0

2018 Q1

  • Approx. 3,3 million (32,4%) out of

10,3 million young people aged 15-24, were

not in employment, education or training.

Female NEET Up 1,0 Percentage Point Male NEET Down 0,9 of a Percentage Point

Not in Employment, Education or Training NEET (15-24 years) by sex

35,3% 29,6% 30,5% 34,3%

The overall NEET rate remained unchanged in Q1: 2018 compared to Q1: 2017 at 32,4%

2017 Q1

32,4%

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SLIDE 12

QLFS Q1: 2018

Not in Employment, Education or Training : Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q1 2017 – Q1 2018)

26,9% 28,6% 29,1% 29,4% 32,4% 34,4% 35,9% 36,4% 37,0% 37,4% WC FS LP GP RSA EC MP KZN NW NC

(+1,8) (-1,8) (0,0) (+0,2) (+0,3) (0,0) (-0,9) (+2,5) (-2,2) (-1,2) ( ) Y/Y Change

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SLIDE 13

QLFS Q1: 2018

EMPLOYMENT

QLFS

Q1:2018

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SLIDE 14

QLFS Q1: 2018

Employment Q1:2018- Q/Q changes

16,4m

Of people aged 15 – 64 years were employed in Q1:2018 (+206 000 q/q)

Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q

111 111 000 00 93 000 00

  • 3 000

00

Q/Q

Agriculture Private households Formal Sector (Non agricultural) Informal Sector (Non agricultural)

5 5 000 00

(11,4 million jobs) (2,9 million jobs) (1,3 million jobs) (847 000 jobs)

Increased by Increased by Increased by Decreased by

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SLIDE 15

QLFS Q1: 2018

5 10 15 20 25

Other Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Services

Employment shares, Q1:2018

0,1% 0,9% 2,4% 5,2% 5,9% 7,8% 8,7% 11,3% 14,7% 20,0% 23,1% 5 10 15 20 25

Share of GDP (Q4: 2017) 22,0% 16,8% 21,8% 13,8% 3,8% 9,6% 1,6% 8,3% 2,3%

Employment and GDP share per industry

Construction, Trade, Agriculture and Services have higher employment shares relative to their GDP contribution

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SLIDE 16

QLFS Q1: 2018

  • 41
  • 14
  • 6
  • 3

5

30 36 40 58 95

Transport Mining Utilities Agriculture Private households Finance Trade Construction Manufacturing Services

Quarter-to-quarter change (‘000)

  • 75
  • 50
  • 45
  • 28
  • 4
  • 2

24 59 69 216

Construction Mining Private households Agriculture Transport Utilities Finance Manufacturing Trade Services

Year-on-year change (‘000)

Employment changes by industry

The biggest employment gains were recorded in the Services, Manufacturing and Construction industries, quarter-to-quarter

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SLIDE 17

QLFS Q1: 2018

Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q

SERVICES CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING TRADE

95 5 000 00 40 000 00

Q/Q

Mainly driven by gains in:  Health and social work  Public administration and defence activities  Activities of membership

  • rganisations, NEC.

 Recreational , cultural and sporting activities Mainly driven by gains in:  Building installation Mainly driven by gains in:  Manufacture of basic metals  Manufacture of coke, chemicals, rubber and plastic  Manufacture of textiles, clothing and leather goods Mainly driven by gains in:  Wholesale trade  Retail trade

58 000 00 36 000 00

Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Gains

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SLIDE 18

QLFS Q1: 2018

  • 41 000

00

Q/Q Q/Q

  • 6

6 000 00

Q/Q

Mainly driven by losses in:  Other land transport.  Railway transport  Air transport

Transport Utilities Mining

Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Losses

Mainly driven by losses in:  Collection, purification and distribution of water  Manufacture of gas Mainly driven by losses in: Mining of :  Non-ferrous metal ores  Stone quarrying, clay and sandpits  Diamonds

  • 14 000

00

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SLIDE 19

QLFS Q1: 2018

0,4% 5,3% 6,1% 8,3% 8,6% 8,7% 10,7% 12,2% 16,4% 23,3%

Other Skilled agriculture Professional Domestic worker Plant and machine… Technician Manager Clerk Craft and related trade Sales and services Elementary

Employment share by occupation, Q1:2018

Close to a third of all people employed in Q1:2018 were employed in elementary and domestic work

  • ccupations
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SLIDE 20

QLFS Q1: 2018

Formal sector employment decreased by 144 000 to 11,2 million quarter-to-quarter Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend increasing from 9,9 million in Q1:2008 to 11,4 million in Q3:2017

Formal sector employment

9,9 M

11,2 M

11,4 M

0 M 2 M 4 M 6 M 8 M 10 M 12 M

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend increasing from 9,9 million in Q1:2008 to 11,4 million in Q1:2018

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SLIDE 21

QLFS Q1: 2018

2,4 M

2,8 M

2,9 M

0 M 2 M 4 M 6 M 8 M 10 M 12 M

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Informal sector employment has increased from 2,4 million in Q1:2008 to 2,9 million in Q1:2018

Informal sector employment

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SLIDE 22

QLFS Q1: 2018

UNEMPLOYMENT

QLFS

Q1:2018

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SLIDE 23

QLFS Q1: 2018

Labour market dashboard

4,4 M

5,9 M

6,0 M

0 M 1 M 2 M 3 M 4 M 5 M 6 M 7 M 8 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,4 million in Q1:2008 to 6,0 million in Q1:2018

Number of unemployed people

57,0% 68,5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 57,0% in Q1:2008 to 68,5% in Q1:2018

Long term unemployment*

* Unemployed for a year or longer

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SLIDE 24

QLFS Q1: 2018

23,2%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018

30,9%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

6,0 million

people were unemployed in Q1:2018 An increase of 100 000 q/q

9,5 million

people were unemployed in Q1:2018 An increase of 264 000 q/q

28,8% 25,1%

SA: 26,7%

40,6% 33,2%

SA: 36,7%

Expanded Definition includes the following

  • Official unemployment (searched and available)

6,0 M

  • Available to work but are/or
  • Discouraged work-seekers

2,8 M

  • Have other reasons for not searching

0,7 M

Official Unemployment Rate

26,7% (0,0% Point Change Q/Q)

Expanded Unemployment Rate

36,7% (+0,4 % Point Change Q/Q)

Q1:2018 Q1:2018

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SLIDE 25

QLFS Q1: 2018

6,7% 9,2% 23,5% 30,0% 26,7% 6,9% 11,8% 22,7% 30,1% 26,7% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes

Unemployment rate by Population group

Q1:2018 Q4:2017

5,1% 9,0% 23,3% 28,0% 24,8% 6,8% 11,5% 24,3% 27,9% 25,1%

Male unemployment rate By Population Group

Official unemployment rate by population group and sex

Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%.

8,8% 9,6% 23,8% 32,4% 29,0% 7,1% 12,5% 21,0% 32,6% 28,8%

Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group

Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate

  • f over 30%.
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SLIDE 26

QLFS Q1: 2018

8,5% 14,9% 29,1% 40,7% 36,3% 9,8% 18,2% 27,5% 41,0% 36,7% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes

Expanded unemployment rate by population group

Q1:2018 Q4:2017

6,1% 13,1% 28,0% 37,0% 32,8% 8,8% 15,9%

28,4% 37,0% 33,2%

Male expanded unemployment rate

Expanded unemployment rate by population group and sex

11,6% 18,2% 30,3% 44,8% 40,3% 11,0% 21,9% 26,6% 45,4% 40,6%

Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group

Irrespective of sex Black Africans and Coloured population groups remain vulnerable in the labour market

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SLIDE 27

QLFS Q1: 2018

19,7% 19,9% 22,3% 25,8% 26,7% 28,6% 29,5% 32,4% 32,8% 35,6%

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 Western Cape Limpopo KwaZulu Natal North West South Africa Gauteng Northern Cape Mpumalanga Free State Eastern Cape

(+0,3) (+3,5) (-1,8) (-0,5) (+0,2) (+1,9) (+0,5) (+0,2) (0,0) ( ) Q/Q Change (+2,4)

Only two provinces (GP and KZN) showed decreases in their unemployment rate between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018

Provincial unemployment rate: Official Q1: 2018

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SLIDE 28

QLFS Q1: 2018

22,5% 37,6% 40,6% 41,8% 36,7% 33,6% 41,0% 42,5% 38,4% 46,0%

19,7% 19,9% 22,3% 25,8% 26,7% 28,6% 29,5% 32,4% 32,8% 35,6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Western Cape Limpopo KwaZulu Natal North West South Africa Gauteng Northern Cape Mpumalanga Free State Eastern Cape

Provincial unemployment rate: Official vs Expanded Q1: 2018

EC has the highest unemployment rate based on either the official or expanded definition Limpopo, KZN and NW Provinces all have more than 15% points difference between thier expanded and official definitions

17,7% Point Difference 18,3% Point Difference 15,9% Point Difference

Official Expanded

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SLIDE 29

QLFS Q1: 2018

UNDERSTANDING NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE (NEA)

QLFS

Q1:2018

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SLIDE 30

QLFS Q1: 2018

Student 40,1%

Discouraged work seekers

18,2%

Home-maker

16,5%

Illness/disability; 10,2% Too old/young to work; 9,4%

Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 % Change

5 main reasons for NEA

Non-economically active (NEA)

NEA

M M M M 15,3 million people aged 15 – 64 years were not economically active. A decrease of 154 000 q/q

15,3 M

Quarter-on-quarter changes Thousand Student

  • 204

Homemaker

  • 149

Illness/disability

  • 15

Too young/too old to work

  • 16

Discouraged work seekers 249 Other

  • 19

Down 0,9 % Point Up 1,8 % Point Down 0,8 % Point

No Change No Change

Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 Change in Figures

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SLIDE 31

QLFS Q1: 2018

RECAP

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS EMPLOYMENT LOSSES

NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION AND TRAINING

Unemployment rate remained unchanged at

26,7% while

absorption rate and labour force participation rate increased by 0,4 and 0,5 of a percentage point respectively Largest employment gains were recorded in

Community and social services (95 000),

Manufacturing (58 000) and Construction (40 000). Employment losses were

  • bserved in Transport

(41 000), Mining (14 000),

Utilities (6 000) and Agriculture (3 000) Of the 10,3 million persons aged (15-24 years) 32,4% were not in employment, education or training.

Q1:2018

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SLIDE 32

QLFS Q1: 2018

THANK YOU

QLFS

Q1:2018