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Connecting Our Greater Communities: Overview

• CEAZ update (#2-#72)

– Mark Hearn - JSU SOBI

• State of Alabama update (#73-#107)

– Mark Hearn - JSU SOBI

• Regional & national update

– Mr. Anoop Mishra - Vice President and Regional Executive, Birmingham Branch of Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

CEAZ Members: Calhoun

2

CEAZ Members: Clay

3

CEAZ Members: Cleburne

4

CEAZ Members: Randolph

5

6

CEAZ Members:

• St. Clair

CEAZ Members: Talladega

7

Cheaha Economic Activity Zone (CEAZ): Overview

• Population trends

(#9-#15)

• Income (#16-24)
• Sales tax revenues

(#25)

• Labor force statistics

(#26-#71)

8

• Dr. Mark Hearn, JSU School of Business and Industry

Population Trends Calhoun County 2009-2018 in Thousands

114.1 118.4 117.8 117.3 116.7 115.9 115.6 114.6 114.7 114.3 110 112 114 116 118 120 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

9 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Trends Clay County 2009-2018 in Thousands

13.6 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

10 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Trends Cleburne County 2009-2018 in Thousands

14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.9 15.0 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Trends Randolph County 2009-2018 in Thousands

22.9 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.5 22.4 22.6 22.5 22.7 22.7 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.8 23.0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Trends St. Clair County 2009-2018 in Thousands

83.0 83.6 84.0 84.7 85.8 86.0 86.5 87.3 88.0 88.7 78 82 86 90 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

13 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Trends Talladega County 2009-2018 in Thousands

80.2 82.0 81.8 81.8 81.1 81.3 80.9 80.1 80.1 79.8 79 80 81 82 83 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

14 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Trends CEAZ 2009-2018 in Thousands

329 336 335 335 335 334 334 333 334 334 320 330 340 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

15 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Average Annual Salary Calhoun County 2009-2018 in $1,000s

16

$36.8 $37.2 $37.5 $37.2 $36.4 $37.0 $36.8 $37.7 $38.9 $39.7 $34 $37 $40 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Annual Salary Clay County 2009-2018 in $1,000s

17

$28.4 $28.8 $28.7 $29.4 $30.4 $30.5 $31.9 $32.7 $33.4 $34.3 $25 $27 $29 $31 $33 $35 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Annual Salary Cleburne County 2009-2018 in $1,000s

18

$32.0 $34.4 $34.7 $34.9 $37.1 $39.7 $43.1 $41.7 $42.8 $45.7 $30 $34 $38 $42 $46 $50 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Annual Salary Randolph County 2009-2018 in $1,000s

19

$27.6 $29.0 $29.6 $29.9 $30.2 $30.9 $31.1 $32.5 $32.6 $33.6 $26 $28 $30 $32 $34 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Annual Salary

• St. Clair County 2009-2018 in $1,000s

20

$30.9 $32.2 $32.4 $32.7 $33.6 $34.5 $35.3 $36.1 $37.1 $37.9 $28 $32 $36 $40 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Annual Salary Talladega County 2009-2018 in $1,000s

21

$37.8 $39.7 $38.9 $40.7 $42.4 $44.0 $44.3 $45.3 $45.4 $45.9 $36 $40 $44 $48 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Annual Salary CEAZ 2009-2018 in $1,000s

22

$32.2 $33.6 $33.6 $34.1 $35.0 $36.1 $37.1 $37.7 $38.4 $39.5 $30 $34 $38 $42 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Annual Salary CEAZ as % of AL 2009-2018

23

81.8% 83.3% 81.7% 81.3% 82.8% 83.4% 83.8% 84.0% 83.4% 83.4% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Ave Weekly Wages 4th Qtr 2018 U.S. Avg - $1,144 AL Avg - $957

Less than $720 $720 - LT $760 $760 - LT $910 $910 - LT $1300

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 24

$766 $784 $967 $676

$804

$960 $673

State Sales Tax Collections CEAZ FY 10-11 – FY 17-18 in $ Millions

$50.09 $52.97 $55.14 $61.29 $62.21 $61.58 $63.66 $67.80 $45 $50 $55 $60 $65 $70 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 In $ Millions

25 Source: AL Dept of Revenue

+6.5% from FY 16-17

Labor Force Calhoun County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

53.9 51.6 51.3 49.6 48.4 47.2 45.9 45.9 45.8 46.0 40 44 48 52 56 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

26 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Calhoun County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

46.6 46.3 45.9 45.5 45.8 45.8 45.8 45.9 46.1 46.3 46.4 46.6 46.8 44 45 46 47

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

27 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment Calhoun County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

47.9 45.7 46.0 45.3 44.2 43.5 42.7 42.9 42.9 43.5 40 43 46 49 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

28 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment Calhoun County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

44.0 43.9 43.7 43.5 43.8 44.0 43.9 43.4 43.9 44.2 44.6 45.0 44.9 43 44 44 45 45 46

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

29 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Calhoun County vs Alabama 2009 – 2018

11.1% 11.4% 10.3% 8.9% 8.8% 8.0% 7.0% 6.5% 5.0% 4.7% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9%

1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Calhoun Alabama

30 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Calhoun County vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019

5.6% 5.1% 4.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.2% 5.4% 4.6% 4.4% 4.0% 3.4% 4.1% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 4.4% 4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 3.5%

2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

Calhoun Alabama

31 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Clay County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

5.6 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.0 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

32 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Clay County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

33 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment Clay County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

4.7 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

34 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment Clay County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

5.7 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

35 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Clay County vs Alabama 2009 – 2018

16.7% 14.5% 11.8% 9.4% 8.4% 7.2% 6.1% 6.2% 4.3% 3.9% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9%

1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Clay Alabama

36 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Clay County vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019

4.4% 4.0% 4.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% 3.6% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 3.3% 2.9% 3.5% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 4.4% 4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 3.5%

2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

Clay Alabama

37 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Cleburne County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

6.5 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.8 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

38 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Cleburne County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

39 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment Cleburne County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

5.9 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

40 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment Cleburne County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

41 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Cleburne County vs Alabama 2009 – 2018

10.2% 10.0% 9.7% 8.2% 7.7% 6.6% 6.0% 6.0% 4.5% 4.2% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Cleburne Alabama

42 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Cleburne County vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019

5.1% 4.8% 4.4% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.8% 5.2% 4.3% 4.2% 3.8% 3.0% 3.5% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 4.4% 4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 3.5%

2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

Cleburne Alabama

43 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Randolph County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

9.4 9.7 9.4 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

44 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Randolph County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

9.6 9.7 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

45 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment Randolph County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

8.0 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.2 7.2 8.0 8.8 9.6 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

46 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment Randolph County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

9.2 9.2 9.1 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.5 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.0

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

47 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Randolph County vs Alabama 2009 – 2018

14.9% 13.4% 11.4% 9.2% 7.8% 6.7% 5.9% 5.6% 4.4% 4.0% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9%

2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Randolph Alabama

48 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Randolph County vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019

4.7% 4.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% 3.6% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% 3.4% 2.9% 3.4% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 4.4% 4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 3.5%

2% 3% 4% 5%

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

Randolph Alabama

49 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force St. Clair County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

36.8 38.3 38.5 38.5 38.8 38.5 38.6 39.1 39.2 39.7 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

50 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force St. Clair County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

40.039.9 39.6 39.5 40.0 39.9 39.9 39.9 40.1 40.4 40.6 40.8 40.9 39.0 39.5 40.0 40.5 41.0 41.5

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

51 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment St. Clair County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

32.8 34.4 35.1 35.9 36.5 36.3 36.6 37.1 37.6 38.3 31 33 35 37 39 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

52 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment St. Clair County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

38.3 38.4 38.1 38.2 38.6 38.7 38.7 38.3 38.7 39.1 39.3 39.8 39.6 37 38 39 40

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

53 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate St. Clair County vs Alabama 2009 – 2018

10.9% 10.1% 8.8% 6.9% 6.1% 5.8% 5.3% 5.2% 4.0% 3.5% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

• St. Clair

Alabama

54 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate St. Clair County vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019

4.2% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.0% 3.2% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.6% 3.1% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 4.4% 4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 3.5%

2% 3% 4% 5%

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

• St. Clair

Alabama

55 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Talladega County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

37.8 35.1 35.3 35.0 35.8 35.4 35.1 34.9 34.6 35.0 32 34 36 38 40 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

56 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Talladega County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

35.2 35.2 34.9 34.9 35.1 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.5 36.0 36.2 36.4 36.4 33 34 35 36 37 38

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

57 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment Talladega County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

32.3 30.4 31.2 31.7 32.7 32.6 32.8 32.6 32.9 33.5 30 31 32 33 34 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

58 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment Talladega County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

33.4 33.6 33.3 33.5 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.5 33.9 34.5 34.8 35.2 35.0 31 32 33 34 35 36

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

59 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Talladega County vs Alabama 2009 – 2018

14.4% 13.5% 11.6% 9.4% 8.6% 7.8% 6.6% 6.6% 5.0% 4.3% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Talladega Alabama

60 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Talladega County vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019

5.1% 4.6% 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.9% 4.7% 4.3% 4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 3.9% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 4.4%4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 3.5%

2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

Talladega Alabama

61 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force CEAZ 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

150.1 146.6 146.1 143.6 143.4 141.8 140.3 140.8 140.6 141.9 132 136 140 144 148 152 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

62 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Labor Force CEAZ June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

142 142 140 140 141 141 140 140 142 143 143 143 146 136 138 140 142 144 146 148

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

63 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment CEAZ 2009 - 2018 in Thousands

131.6 129.3 131.0 131.4 132.1 131.6 131.5 132.3 134.1 136.0 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In 1,000

64 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Employment CEAZ June 18 – June 19 in Thousands

136 137 135 136 137 137 136 135 137 139 140 141 141 132 134 136 138 140 142

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In 1,000

65 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate CEAZ vs Alabama 2009 – 2018

13.0% 12.20% 10.60% 8.70% 7.90% 7.00% 6.10% 6.00% 4.50% 4.10% 11.00% 10.50% 9.60% 8.00% 7.20% 6.80% 6.10% 5.80% 4.40% 3.90%

1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

CEAZ Alabama

66 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate CEAZ vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019

4.9% 4.4% 4.3% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 4.6% 4.1% 3.9% 3.6% 3.0% 3.7% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 4.4% 4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 3.5%

2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

CEAZ Alabama

67 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

Alabama Unemployment Rates

June 2019 Preliminary State Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) State Ave –3.5% Unemployment Rate 4.3% and Below 4.4% - 5.1% 5.2% and Above

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 68

3.1% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5%

3.5%

3.9% 3.4%

69

Manufacturing Sector Employment CEAZ 2008-2018 in Thousands

23.1 19.3 18.2 18.4 19.3 20.1 21.2 22.2 22.3 22.6 23.3 15 18 20 23 25 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

70

Service Sector Employment CEAZ 2008-2018 in Thousands

54.7 51.5 51.6 52.8 53.6 53.8 53.6 54.2 54.3 54.8 54.8 48 50 53 55 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

71

Federal Sector Employment CEAZ 2008-2018 in Thousands

6.23 6.27 6.28 5.93 5.34 4.89 4.63 4.43 4.39 4.31 4.42 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

CEAZ: Economic Summary

• Population - Flat
• Incomes – Up sharply
• Tax revenues – Up sharply
• Labor force – Up
• Employment – Up sharply
• Unemployment – Down

sharply

• Regional economy recovered

– Near record highs – Reductions in federal employment significant (Especially for Calhoun) – Labor force starting to expand as wages show improvement – Other areas of state show higher recovery

72

State of Alabama Economy

• Population & migration (74-79)
• Gross domestic product (80-81)
• Labor force (81-88)
• Tax revenues (89-96)
• Housing (97)
• State confidence survey (98-106)

73

Population Estimates State of Alabama 2008-2018 in Millions

4.72 4.76 4.79 4.80 4.82 4.83 4.85 4.86 4.86 4.87 4.89 4.65 4.75 4.85 4.95 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In Millions

74 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Migration Patterns Based Upon Household Moves Jan-Dec 2018

75 Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2018

High Inbound Medium Outbound Balanced Alabama Out - 1050 In - 1254 Medium Inbound High Outbound

Alabama Migration Patterns Household Moves 2013-2018

Year of Study Classification* Inbound Outbound Percentage 2018 Balanced 1254 1050 54.4% 2017 Inbound 986 745 57% 2016 Balanced 893 795 53% 2015 Inbound 1092 819 57% 2014 Balanced 962 887 52% 2013 Balanced 1121 955 54%

76

*55% ratio of moved are Inbound

Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2018

Reported Reasons for Migration In and Out of Alabama 2018

Inbound Reason Top Reasons Reported Outbound Reason

18.62% Retirement 12.50% 2.76% Health 3.57% 17.24% Family 22.32% 8.97% Lifestyle 9.82% 60.00% Job* 66.07%

77 Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2018

Age for Migration In and Out of Alabama 2018

Inbound Age Age Categories Outbound Age

19.54% <18 to 34 28.44%* 13.77% 35-44 17.43% 19.57% 45-54 22.02% 24.64%* 55-64 19.27% 22.47% 65 and Older 12.84%

78 Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2018

Income for Migration In and Out of Alabama 2018

Inbound Income Income Categories Outbound Income

6.06% Less than $50,000 8.75% 10.10% $50,000 to $74,999 12.50% 19.19% $75,000 to $99,999 18.75% 22.27% $100,000 to $149,000 26.25% 37.37% $150,000 or More* 33.75%

79 Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2018

GDP % Change State of Alabama Vs U.S. 2009 - 2018

• 2.1%

3.8% 3.7% 4.2% 3.6% 4.4% 4.0% 2.8% 4.2% 2.9%

• 2.5%

3.8% 3.8% 2.7% 2.8% 1.3% 3.2% 1.5% 3.9% 2.0%

• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

US AL

80 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Current $

Labor Force State of Alabama 2008-2018 in Millions

2.17 2.17 2.16 2.19 2.20 2.17 2.15 2.15 2.14 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.22 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In Millions

81

Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Alabama Department of Labor

Labor Force State of Alabama July 2018 – June 2019 in Millions

2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.22 2.23 2.24 2.18 2.20 2.22 2.24 2.26

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In Millions

82

+39,099 12 Months Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Alabama Department of Labor

Employment State of Alabama 2008-2018 in Millions

2.05 1.92 1.96 1.99 1.99 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.05 2.07 2.10 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In Millions

Seasonally Adjusted

83 Source: Alabama Department of Labor

Employment State of Alabama June 2018 – June 2019 in Millions

2.11 2.11 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.13 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.16 2.18

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

In Millions

84 Source: Alabama Department of Labor

+48,952 12 Months Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate AL vs U.S. Jun 2018 – Jun 2019

85

4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8%3.8%3.8% 3.8%3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8%3.8% 3.6%3.6% 3.7% 3.3% 3.8% 4.3%

Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19

% Unemployed AL U.S.

Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Alabama Department of Labor

KY 1.8% TN 3.0% MS 1.0% NC 1.9% SC 1.6% FL 3.5% AL 2.0% GA 2.6%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

+218,800 Emp +52,100 Emp +80,400 Emp +12,200 Emp

GDP Growth % 2017-2018 vs Employment Growth June 18 to June 19 Southeastern U.S.

+48,952 Emp

86

KY 4.1% TN 3.4% MS 5.0% NC 4.1% SC 3.5% FL 3.4% AL 3.5% GA 3.7%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

$25.40 $24.16 $26.37 $20.44 $23.85

87

Unemployment Rates vs Private Sector Hourly Wages Southeastern United States

Seasonally Adjusted

Job Quit Levels Annual Per Month Average for U.S. South Region 2008-2018 in Thousands

1027 711 743 795 882 961 1065 1165 1217 1302 1445 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 In Thousands

88 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Gross Revenue Collections State of Alabama FY12-13 – FY17-18 in $ Billions

$9.28 $9.40 $9.78 $9.90 $10.31 $10.98 $8 $9 $10 $11 $12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 In $ Billions

89 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

+6.50% from FY 16-17 * *Record High for Alabama

Individual Income Tax Gross Collections State of Alabama FY12-13 – FY17-18 in $ Billions

$3.75 $3.75 $3.93 $4.07 $4.21 $4.57 $3.20 $3.60 $4.00 $4.40 $4.80 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 In $ Billions

90

+8.57% from FY 16-17

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

Sales Tax Gross Collections State of Alabama FY12-13 – FY17-18 in $ Billions

$2.03 $2.08 $2.15 $2.24 $2.28 $2.38 $1.80 $2.00 $2.20 $2.40 $2.60 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 In $ Billions

91

+4.47% from FY 16-17

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax State

• f AL in $ Billions

FYTD 17-18 vs FYTD 18-19 (Oct-Jun)

92 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue Oct-Jun

In $ Millions FYTD 17-18 FYTD 18-19 % Change Individual Income Tax $3.522 $3.767 +6.95% Sales Tax $1.769 $1.850 +4.60% Total $8.930 $8.418 +6.08%

Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax State of AL in $ Millions Jun 2018 vs Jun 2019

93 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

In $ Millions Jun 2018 Jun 2019 % Change Individual Income Tax $349.44 $408.26 +16.83% Sales Tax $206.93 $221.13 +6.86% Total $877.70 $971.44 +10.68%

Simplified Sellers Use Tax State of AL Total Collections FY15-16, FY16-17, FY17-18

$4.37 $52.36 $80.22 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100

FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18

In $ Millions

94 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

+53% vs FY16-17

*State capturing online sales as use tax, Amazon joins 11/01/16

Simplified Sellers Use Tax State of AL Total Collections in Millions FYTD16-17-FYTD 18-19 (Oct-Jun)

$39.10 $63.53 $136.19 $0 $40 $80 $120 $160

FYTD16-17 FYTD17-18 FYTD18-19

In $ Millions

95 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

+53.35% vs FYTD 17-18

Simplified Sellers Use Tax State of Alabama FY 2017-2018

General Fund $30,083,546 37% Municipalities $20,055,697 25% Counties $20,055,697 25% Education $10,027,849 13%

96 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

$80.22 Millions FY 17-18

97

Housing Statistics State of AL 2017 vs 2018

2017 2018 % Change Median Price $178,093 $188,389 +5.8% Avg Days on Market 120 102

• 15.4%

Total Homes Sold 57,569 61,072 +6.08%

Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

• State survey – Outlook for 3rd

Quarter 2019

• Approximately 137 respondents
• Operated by University of

Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research

• cber.cba.ua.edu

98

Alabama Business Confidence Index

CULVERHOUSE College of Commerce

99

11.7% 43.8% 44.5% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Worse No Change Better % of Respondents

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

Economic Outlook for Alabama Q3 2019 compared to Q2 2019

100

61.6 58.7 63.1 64.0 65.8 62.5 56.4 64.8 58.5 54 58 62 66 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Index Value

Economic Outlook Index for Alabama Q3 17 – Q3 19

% Change Q2 19 – Q3 19 -10% % Change Q3 18 – Q3 19 -11%

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

Hiring Outlook for Alabama Q3 2019 compared to Q2 2019

13.9% 41.6% 44.5% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Worse No Change Better % of Respondents

101 Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

58.9 57.4 61.4 60.0 61.4 61.8 59.2 63.1 58.9 50 53 56 59 62 65 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Index Value

Hiring Outlook Index for Alabama Q3 17 – Q3 19

102

% Change Q2 19 – Q3 19 -6.7% % Change Q3 18 – Q3 19 -4.1%

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

Sales Outlook for Alabama Q3 2019 compared to Q2 2019

16.1% 28.5% 55.5% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Worse No Change Better % of Respondents

103 Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

62.6 58.8 64.7 64.9 61.4 61.8 56.1 68.5 61.7 52 56 60 64 68 72 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Index Value

Sales Outlook Index for Alabama Q3 17 – Q3 19

104

% Change Q2 19 – Q3 19 -10% % Change Q3 18 – Q3 19 +0.5%

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

11.7% 42.3% 46.0% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Worse No Change Better % of Respondents

105

Capital Expenditures Outlook Q3 2019 compared to Q2 2019

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

59.8 57.4 59.9 61.6 63.6 62.5 57.0 64.3 59.3 52 56 60 64 68 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Index Value

106

Capital Expenditures Outlook Alabama Q3 17 – Q3 19

% Change Q2 19 – Q3 19 -7.8% % Change Q3 18 – Q3 19 -6.8%

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

State of Alabama Summary

107

• Population census up slightly (+13,124)
• State GDP up (2018 2.0% AL, 2018 U.S.A. 2.9%)
• Labor force up (+47,546 Jun 18 – Jun 19)
• Employment up (+49,018 Jun 18 – Jun 19)
• Unemployment rate very low (3.5% Jun 19)
• Housing up (+6.08% Homes sold 2017 vs 2018)
• State tax revenues record high ( FY 17-18 $10.98 Billion)

CEAZ: Summary Problems That We Want to Have

• Labor force

– Headed up – Up with wage increases

• Employment

– Near record highs – Labor mobility up

• Unemployment

– Near record lows

• Economy in region has

recovered significantly

– Businesses report issues finding qualified workers – Labor quit levels at all time highs in Southeast (Watch Your Stars) – Other areas of region have seen higher growth

108