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Information provided by Connecting Our Greater Communities: Overview CEAZ update (#2-#72) Mark Hearn - JSU SOBI State of Alabama update (#73-#107) Mark Hearn - JSU SOBI Regional & national update Mr. Anoop Mishra - Vice

  1. Unemployment Rate Cleburne County vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019 6% 5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 4.4% 4% 4.3% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3% 3.3% Cleburne Alabama 2.9% 2% Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 43 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  2. Labor Force Randolph County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands 10.0 9.7 9.5 9.6 In 1,000 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.2 8.8 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 44 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  3. Labor Force Randolph County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 In 1,000 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.2 Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 45 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  4. Employment Randolph County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands 9.6 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.9 In 1,000 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.0 8.0 7.2 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 46 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  5. Employment Randolph County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands 10.0 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.5 In 1,000 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.4 Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 47 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  6. Unemployment Rate Randolph County vs Alabama 2009 – 2018 16% 14.9% 13.4% 14% Randolph Alabama 11.4% 12% 9.2% 10% 11.0% 10.5% 7.8% 9.6% 8% 6.8% 6.1% 8.0% 5.8% 6% 7.2% 4.4% 6.7% 4.0% 5.6% 5.9% 4% 4.4% 3.9% 2% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 48 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  7. Unemployment Rate Randolph County vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019 5% 4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.7% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 4% 3.6% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 4.0% 3.4% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 2.9% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3% Randolph Alabama 2.9% 2% Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 49 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  8. Labor Force St. Clair County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands 41 39.7 40 39.1 39.2 38.8 In 1,000 39 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.3 38 36.8 37 36 35 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 50 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  9. Labor Force St. Clair County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands 41.5 40.8 40.9 41.0 40.4 40.6 In 1,000 40.5 40.0 39.9 39.9 39.9 40.1 40.0 39.9 40.0 39.6 39.5 39.5 39.0 Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 51 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  10. Employment St. Clair County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands 39 38.3 37.6 37.1 36.6 37 36.5 36.3 In 1,000 35.9 35.1 35 34.4 32.8 33 31 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 52 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  11. Employment St. Clair County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands 40 39.8 39.6 39.3 39.1 In 1,000 39 38.6 38.7 38.7 38.7 38.3 38.4 38.3 38.1 38.2 38 37 Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 53 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  12. Unemployment Rate St. Clair County vs Alabama 2009 – 2018 12% 11.0% 10.5% 9.6% 10% 10.9% 8.0% 10.1% 7.2% 8% 6.8% 8.8% 5.8% 6.1% 6% 6.9% 4.4% 3.9% 6.1% 5.8% 5.2% 4% 5.3% 4.0% St. Clair Alabama 2% 3.5% 0% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 54 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  13. Unemployment Rate St. Clair County vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019 5% 4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8% 4% 4.2% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 2.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% St. Clair Alabama 2.6% 2% Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 55 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  14. Labor Force Talladega County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands 40 37.8 38 In 1,000 35.8 36 35.4 35.1 35.3 35.1 35.0 35.0 34.9 34.6 34 32 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 56 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  15. Labor Force Talladega County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands 38 37 36.0 36.2 36.4 36.4 In 1,000 36 34.9 34.9 35.1 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.5 35.2 35.2 35 34 33 Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 57 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  16. Employment Talladega County 2009 - 2018 in Thousands 34 33.5 32.9 32.8 33 32.7 32.6 32.6 32.3 In 1,000 32 31.7 31.2 31 30.4 30 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 58 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  17. Employment Talladega County June 18 – June 19 in Thousands 36 35.2 35.0 34.5 34.8 35 In 1,000 33.9 33.4 33.6 33.3 33.5 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.5 34 33 32 31 Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 59 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  18. Unemployment Rate Talladega County vs Alabama 2009 – 2018 20% Talladega Alabama 14.4% 13.5% 15% 11.6% 9.4% 8.6% 10% 7.8% 11.0% 10.5% 6.6% 6.6% 9.6% 5.0% 8.0% 4.3% 7.2% 5% 6.8% 6.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9% 0% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 60 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  19. Unemployment Rate Talladega County vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019 6% 5.1% 4.7% 5% 4.6% 4.3% 4.4% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.7% 3.9% 3.8% 4% 3.6% 4.4%4.0% 4.3% 3.3% 4.1% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3% 3.3% 3.3% 2.9% Talladega Alabama 2% Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 61 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  20. Labor Force CEAZ 2009 - 2018 in Thousands 152 150.1 148 146.6 146.1 In 1,000 143.6 143.4 144 141.8 140.3 140.8 140.6 141.9 140 136 132 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 62 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  21. Labor Force CEAZ June 18 – June 19 in Thousands 148 146 146 In 1,000 144 143 143 143 142 142 142 141 141 140 140 142 140 140 140 138 136 Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 63 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  22. Employment CEAZ 2009 - 2018 in Thousands 138 136.0 136 134.1 In 1,000 134 132.1 131.6 131.5 132.3 131.6 131.0 131.4 132 129.3 130 128 126 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 64 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  23. Employment CEAZ June 18 – June 19 in Thousands 142 141 141 140 140 139 In 1,000 138 137 137 137 136 136 137 136 136 135 135 134 132 Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 65 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  24. Unemployment Rate CEAZ vs Alabama 2009 – 2018 15% 13.0% 12.20% CEAZ Alabama 13% 10.60% 11% 8.70% 11.00% 10.50% 9% 7.90% 9.60% 7.00% 6.10% 6.00% 7% 8.00% 7.20% 4.50% 6.80% 4.10% 5% 6.10% 5.80% 4.40% 3% 3.90% 1% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 66 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  25. Unemployment Rate CEAZ vs Alabama June 2018 – June 2019 6% CEAZ Alabama 4.9% 5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 4.7% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 4.4% 3.6% 4% 3.7% 3.8% 4.3% 4.0% 3.0% 4.1% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3% 3.3% 3.3% 2.9% 2% Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 67 Source: Department of Labor Statistics

  26. 3.5% 4.1% 3.1% Alabama Unemployment Rates 3.9% June 2019 Preliminary State Rate 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% (Not Seasonally Adjusted) State Ave – 3.5% Unemployment Rate 4.3% and Below 4.4% - 5.1% 5.2% and Above Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 68

  27. Manufacturing Sector Employment CEAZ 2008-2018 in Thousands 25 23.3 23.1 22.6 22.3 22.2 23 21.2 In Thousands 20.1 20 19.3 19.3 18.4 18.2 18 15 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 69 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  28. Service Sector Employment CEAZ 2008-2018 in Thousands 54.7 54.8 54.8 55 54.3 54.2 53.8 53.6 53.6 52.8 53 In Thousands 51.6 51.5 50 48 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 70 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  29. Federal Sector Employment CEAZ 2008-2018 in Thousands 7.0 6.5 6.27 6.28 6.23 5.93 6.0 In Thousands 5.34 5.5 4.89 5.0 4.63 4.43 4.42 4.39 4.31 4.5 4.0 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 71 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  30. CEAZ: Economic Summary • Population - Flat • Regional economy recovered – Near record highs • Incomes – Up sharply – Reductions in federal • Tax revenues – Up sharply employment significant • Labor force – Up (Especially for Calhoun) • Employment – Up sharply – Labor force starting to expand • Unemployment – Down as wages show improvement sharply – Other areas of state show higher recovery 72

  31. State of Alabama Economy • Population & migration (74-79) • Gross domestic product (80-81) • Labor force (81-88) • Tax revenues (89-96) • Housing (97) • State confidence survey (98-106) 73

  32. Population Estimates State of Alabama 2008-2018 in Millions 4.95 4.79 4.80 4.82 4.83 4.85 4.86 4.86 4.87 4.89 4.85 In Millions 4.76 4.75 4.72 4.65 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 74 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  33. Migration Patterns Based Upon Household Moves Jan-Dec 2018 High Inbound Medium Inbound Balanced Alabama Medium Outbound Out - 1050 High Outbound In - 1254 75 Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2018

  34. Alabama Migration Patterns Household Moves 2013-2018 Year of Study Classification* Inbound Outbound Percentage 2018 Balanced 1254 1050 54.4% 2017 Inbound 986 745 57% 2016 Balanced 893 795 53% 2015 Inbound 1092 819 57% 2014 Balanced 962 887 52% 2013 Balanced 1121 955 54% *55% ratio of moved are Inbound 76 Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2018

  35. Reported Reasons for Migration In and Out of Alabama 2018 Inbound Top Reasons Outbound Reason Reported Reason 18.62% Retirement 12.50% 2.76% Health 3.57% 17.24% Family 22.32% 8.97% Lifestyle 9.82% 60.00% Job* 66.07% 77 Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2018

  36. Age for Migration In and Out of Alabama 2018 Inbound Age Age Categories Outbound Age 19.54% <18 to 34 28.44%* 13.77% 35-44 17.43% 19.57% 45-54 22.02% 24.64%* 55-64 19.27% 22.47% 65 and Older 12.84% 78 Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2018

  37. Income for Migration In and Out of Alabama 2018 Inbound Income Income Categories Outbound Income 6.06% Less than $50,000 8.75% 10.10% $50,000 to $74,999 12.50% 19.19% $75,000 to $99,999 18.75% 22.27% $100,000 to $149,000 26.25% 37.37% $150,000 or More* 33.75% 79 Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2018

  38. GDP % Change State of Alabama Vs U.S. 2009 - 2018 6% 4.4% 3.7% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 4% 2.9% 2.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.2% 2% 2.8% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0% -2.1% -2% US AL -2.5% -4% 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 80 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Current $

  39. Labor Force State of Alabama 2008-2018 in Millions Seasonally Adjusted 2.22 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.18 In Millions 2.17 2.16 2.15 2.15 2.14 2.16 2.14 2.12 2.10 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 81 Source: Alabama Department of Labor

  40. Labor Force State of Alabama July 2018 – June 2019 in Millions 2.26 +39,099 12 Months 2.24 In Millions 2.24 2.23 Seasonally Adjusted 2.22 2.22 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.18 Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 82 Source: Alabama Department of Labor

  41. Employment State of Alabama 2008-2018 in Millions 2.15 Seasonally Adjusted 2.10 2.10 2.07 In Millions 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.01 2.00 2.00 1.99 1.99 2.00 1.96 1.95 1.92 1.90 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 83 Source: Alabama Department of Labor

  42. Employment State of Alabama June 2018 – June 2019 in Millions +48,952 2.18 12 Months 2.16 In Millions 2.16 2.15 Seasonally Adjusted 2.14 2.14 2.11 2.11 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.13 2.13 2.12 2.10 Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 84 Source: Alabama Department of Labor

  43. Unemployment Rate AL vs U.S. Jun 2018 – Jun 2019 4.3% AL U.S. 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% % Unemployed 3.9% 3.9% 3.8%3.8% 4.0% 3.8%3.8%3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8%3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6%3.6% Seasonally Adjusted 3.5% 3.3% Jun18 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun19 85 Source: Alabama Department of Labor

  44. KY 1.8% +52,100 Emp NC 1.9% TN 3.0% +12,200 Emp SC 1.6% AL 2.0% GA 2.6% MS 1.0% +80,400 Emp +48,952 Emp FL 3.5% GDP Growth % 2017-2018 vs Employment Growth June 18 to +218,800 Emp June 19 Southeastern U.S. 86 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  45. Seasonally Adjusted KY 4.1% $24.16 NC 4.1% TN 3.4% $20.44 SC 3.5% AL 3.5% GA 3.7% MS 5.0% $26.37 $23.85 FL 3.4% Unemployment Rates vs Private Sector Hourly Wages $25.40 Southeastern United States 87 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  46. Job Quit Levels Annual Per Month Average for U.S. South Region 2008-2018 in Thousands 1445 1500 1302 1300 1165 1217 In Thousands 1065 1100 1027 961 882 900 795 743 711 700 500 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 88 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  47. Gross Revenue Collections State of Alabama FY12-13 – FY17-18 in $ Billions $12 +6.50% from FY 16-17 * $10.98 $11 *Record High for Alabama In $ Billions $10.31 $9.90 $9.78 $10 $9.40 $9.28 $9 $8 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 89 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

  48. Individual Income Tax Gross Collections State of Alabama FY12-13 – FY17-18 in $ Billions $4.80 $4.57 +8.57% from FY 16-17 $4.40 $4.21 In $ Billions $4.07 $3.93 $4.00 $3.75 $3.75 $3.60 $3.20 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 90 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

  49. Sales Tax Gross Collections State of Alabama FY12-13 – FY17-18 in $ Billions $2.60 +4.47% from FY 16-17 $2.38 $2.40 In $ Billions $2.28 $2.24 $2.15 $2.20 $2.08 $2.03 $2.00 $1.80 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 91 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

  50. Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax State of AL in $ Billions FYTD 17-18 vs FYTD 18-19 (Oct-Jun) FYTD FYTD % Change In $ 17-18 18-19 Millions Individual $3.522 $3.767 +6.95% Income Tax Sales Tax $1.769 $1.850 +4.60% Total $8.930 $8.418 +6.08% 92 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue Oct-Jun

  51. Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax State of AL in $ Millions Jun 2018 vs Jun 2019 In $ Millions Jun 2018 Jun 2019 % Change Individual $349.44 $408.26 +16.83% Income Tax Sales Tax $206.93 $221.13 +6.86% Total $877.70 $971.44 +10.68% 93 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

  52. Simplified Sellers Use Tax State of AL Total Collections FY15-16, FY16-17, FY17-18 $100 $80.22 +53% vs FY16-17 $80 In $ Millions $60 $52.36 $40 $20 $4.37 $0 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 94 *State capturing online sales as use tax, Amazon joins 11/01/16 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

  53. Simplified Sellers Use Tax State of AL Total Collections in Millions FYTD16-17-FYTD 18-19 (Oct-Jun) $160 $136.19 +53.35% vs In $ Millions $120 FYTD 17-18 $80 $63.53 $39.10 $40 $0 FYTD16-17 FYTD17-18 FYTD18-19 95 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

  54. Simplified Sellers Use Tax State of Alabama FY 2017-2018 Education $10,027,849 General Fund 13% $30,083,546 37% Counties $20,055,697 25% Municipalities $20,055,697 $80.22 Millions FY 17-18 25% 96 Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

  55. Housing Statistics State of AL 2017 vs 2018 2017 2018 % Change Median $178,093 $188,389 +5.8% Price Avg Days on 120 102 -15.4% Market Total 57,569 61,072 +6.08% Homes Sold 97 Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

  56. Alabama Business Confidence Index • State survey – Outlook for 3rd Quarter 2019 • Approximately 137 respondents • Operated by University of Alabama Center for Business and CULVERHOUSE College of Commerce Economic Research • cber.cba.ua.edu 98

  57. Economic Outlook for Alabama Q3 2019 compared to Q2 2019 60% 44.5% 43.8% % of Respondents 45% 30% 11.7% 15% 0% Worse No Change Better Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index 99

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