Q4 Earnings Presentation February 2020 2 General: This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q4 Earnings Presentation February 2020 2 General: This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q4 Earnings Presentation February 2020 2 General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward- historical information, descriptions of current
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General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains historical information, descriptions
- f
current circumstances and statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial
- results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its
entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s) management’s discussion and analysis for the annual and interim periods ended December 31, 2019, (MD&A), and the company’s annual audited and interim financial statements available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts of the information contained in this presentation to the exclusion of others. Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward- looking statements” (including those under the headings Supply Conditions and Summary) within the meaning of applicable securities
- laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable
guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”, “intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases
- r state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”,
“might”, “will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances contain forward- looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead represent management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or
- circumstances. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve
numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Actual
- utcomes and results of these statements will depend on a number of
factors including those matters described under “Risks and Uncertainties”, in our MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or projected. Reference should be made to the other factors discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities. . Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward- looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or
- ral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required
by applicable securities laws. Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and net debt to capital ratio. Non-IFRS measures do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the “Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the information presented herein is based on or derived from statements by third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf by WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information or any other information
- r opinions contained herein.
Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated. Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm” mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our most recent Annual Report.
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0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% $250 $260 $270 $280 $290 $300 $310 $320 $330 $340
Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419
Expenditures % change
Demand conditions
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 J F M A M J J A S O N D M Starts
U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)
2017 2018 2019 Seasonally adjusted: 2017: 1,203 2018: 1,250 2019: 1,298
Leading indicator of Remodeling Activity
$B 4 Qtr Moving Improvements and Repairs 4 Qtr Moving rate of Change Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies
100 200 300 400 500 600 J F M A M J J A S O N D MMfbm
North America Offshore Exports
2017 2018 2019 2017: 5,462 2018: 5,199 2019: 4,041 ytd November
Source: Statistics Canada, US Census
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D MM tonnes
World Chemical Pulp Shipments
2017 2018 2019 2017: 61.7 2018: 61.1 2019: 57.3 ytd November
Source: PPPC
4 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2018 2019 North America Curtailments Impact (Annualized)
Supply conditions
20 40 60 80 BC Canada US South US Total NA Lumber Supply
Ytd 11-18 Ytd 11-19 Down 21% Down 11% Flat Down 5% Up 2%
Source: WWPA, SFPA, COFI Source: Analyst reports, public filings, management estimates Billion fbm MMfbm
Mix of temporary and permanent
Curtailment impact second half of 2019 more significantly
Source: Statistics Canada, US Census
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19
MMfbm
North America Offshore Imports
2018: 1,574 2019: 1,533
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British Columbia Supply Chain Volatility
Production to shipment volatility expected to normalize
250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19
US $ / Mfbm Billion Board Feet
BC Production BC Shipments Random Lengths SPF- 2x4 US 2&Btr (R-axis)
Oversupply from shipment of backlogs Shipments > Production Undersupply from transportation delays Production > Shipments Working Capital Liquidation from Curtailments (Shipments > Production)
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* Adjusted EBITDA is defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity based compensation, restructuring and impairment charges and export duties.
Consolidated Financial Results
$ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q4-19 Q3-19 Lumber $ 69 $ 39 Panels 13 13 Pulp & Paper (1) 3 Corporate/Other (1)
- Total
$ 80 $ 55 Adjusted EBITDA margin 7.1% 4.6% Q4-19 Q3-19 Sales $ 1,129 $ 1,190 Cost and Expenses 1,152 1,245 Restructure/Impairment 8 (1) Operating earnings (31) (54) Finance Expense (13) (12) Other (2) 2 Earnings before Tax $ (46) $ (64) Tax recovery 4 19 Net earnings $ (42) $ (45) Diluted EPS $ (0.61) $ (0.73)
Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment
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Q4 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
Diligent management of fibre costs improves profitability
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Q4 Lumber Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
Improved pricing, lower fibre costs
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Q4-19 versus Q3-19
$ millions unless
- therwise indicated
Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Change Lumber Production (MMfbm) 1,423 1,493 (70) Variable operating schedules in BC, Chasm closure impact, 100 Mile House shift elimination, partially offset by increases in Alberta Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,385 1,541 (156) Less inventory draw down in Q4 than in Q3 (right-sizing
- f inventory largely completed in Q3)
Pulp & Paper Shipments (Mtonnes) 338 323 15 Better BCTMP production and shipments Adjusted EBITDA $80 $55 $25 Lower costs, especially in lumber, led to improved results, price a minor contributor Cash flow from operations $40 $116 $(76) Better cash flow before working capital, offset by working capital changes (lumber drawdown in Q3, log inventory build in Q4) Capital Expenditure $87 $133 $(46) Continuing to execute on capital plans, significant projects completed in first nine months. Net Debt Net Debt to Capital $1,045 30% $983 28% $62 Net debt up slightly from prior quarter, significant financial flexibility and wide margin of safety Cumulative duties on deposit US$ $373 $344 $29 Significant duties on deposit
Impact of 2019 actions taking hold
10 10 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900
2017 2018 2019 Q3-19 Q4-19
Available liquidity
Bank lines Cash
Liquidity
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Term loan Notes Revolver
Scheduled maturities
Ample financial flexibility
Cash consists of cash and short-term investments less cheques issued in excess of funds on deposit.
11 11 2020 2019 Changes
SPF Production (MMfbm) 3,250 3,211 Carryover impacts from permanent curtailments largely offset recapture from temporary curtailments, additional productivity SYP Production (MMfbm) 3,000 2,703 Executing on investments NBSK Production (M tonnes) 490 460 Targeting improved reliability BCTMP Production (M tonnes) 675 677 Stable operations Capital expenditure $275 -$325 $410 $85-135M lower, Dudley and Opelika represent majority of 2020 spending BC fibre costs Curtailments and closures US / Alberta Fibre Costs Stable pricing environment
2020 Outlook
Modestly improved outlook
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Opelika, Alabama Update
2017 2019 Fourth Quarter 2019 Production per Hour (mfbm) 2017 2019 Fourth Quarter 2019 Cash Manufacturing Costs (mfbm) 2017 2019 Fourth Quarter 2019 Employee Turnover Production
- Continuing to ramp up to targeted productivity
- Trend continues to improve in early 2020
- Steady improvement in product mix and recovery
Manufacturing Costs
- Per unit costs continue to decline with improved
production
- Start-up maintenance costs decreasing
- Reduced turnover improving stability of operations
Human Resources
- Improved working conditions reducing turnover
- Elimination of high turnover risk jobs
- Increased automation
- First U.S. South air conditioned sawmill
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Dudley, Georgia Sawmill Modernization
- Complete turn-key modernization at
existing site (sawmill, kilns, planer)
- Increase site capacity by 150 MFBM
- Access additional local fibre supply
- Improved recovery and grade
- Reduced headcount and operating costs
- Improved safety and working conditions
- 5-7 year payback
Strategic deployment of capital
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Summary
✕ Challenging market conditions across all commodities ✕ Difficult decisions on BC footprint executed ✓ Significant capital projects brought to completion ✓ Inventories rationalized to production changes ✓ Economic fundamentals appear constructive ✓ BC fiber costs starting to moderate ✓ Lower duty rates to take effect in August of 2020 ✓ Focus on operationalizing capital spend