Q3 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 1 August 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Q3 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 1 August 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Q3 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 1 August 2019 2019 Vision 2020 next phase growth intentional evolution Steve Binnie Chief Executive Officer Sappi Limited 1 Forward-looking statements and Regulation G


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SLIDE 1

1 August 2019

Chief Executive Officer Steve Binnie Sappi Limited

Q3 FY19 financial results

delivering on

strategy

2019

Vision 2020

intentional

evolution

next phase

growth

1

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SLIDE 2

Forward-looking statements and Regulation G

2

 Forward-looking statements

Certain statements in this release that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information, are forward-looking statements, including but not limited to statements that are predictions of

  • r indicate future earnings, savings, synergies, events, trends, plans or objectives. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “plan”, “assume”, “positioned”, “will”, “may”, “should”,

“risk” and other similar expressions, which are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends and which do not relate to historical matters, identify forward-looking statements. In addition, this document includes forward-looking statements relating to our potential exposure to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk and commodity price risk. You should not rely on forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are in some cases beyond our control and may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements (and from past results, performance or achievements). Certain factors that may cause such differences include but are not limited to:

 The highly cyclical nature of the pulp and paper industry (and the factors that contribute to such cyclicality, such as levels of demand, production capacity, production, input costs including raw

material, energy and employee costs, and pricing)

 The impact on our business of adverse changes in global economic conditions  Unanticipated production disruptions (including as a result of planned or unexpected power outages)  Changes in environmental, tax and other laws and regulations  Adverse changes in the markets for our products  The emergence of new technologies and changes in consumer trends including increased preferences for digital media  Consequences of our leverage, including as a result of adverse changes in credit markets that affect our ability to raise capital when needed  Adverse changes in the political situation and economy in the countries in which we operate or the effect of governmental efforts to address present or future economic or social problems  The impact of restructurings, investments, acquisitions, dispositions and other strategic initiatives (including related financing), any delays, unexpected costs or other problems experienced in

connection with dispositions or with integrating acquisitions or implementing restructurings or other strategic initiatives, and achieving expected savings and synergies, and

 Currency fluctuations.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information or future events or circumstances or otherwise.

 Regulation G disclosure

Certain non-GAAP financial information is contained in this presentation that management believe may be useful in comparing the company’s operating results from period to period. Reconciliation's of certain of the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in the quarterly results booklet for the relevant period. These booklets are available on our website: https://www.sappi.com/quarterly-reports.

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SLIDE 3

Highlights – Q3 2019

3

EBITDA* $118m Profit for the period US$8 million EPS* 4 US cents Acquisition of Matane Mill

  • Challenging quarter for our major products
  • Commercial downtime of ~89,000t graphic paper
  • US$19m EBITDA impact estimated
  • Lower DWP pricing as VSF operating rates and

pricing declined

Key ratios Q3 FY17 Q3 FY18 Q3 FY19 Net debt/LTM EBITDA 1.7 2.1 2.4 Interest cover 8.4 11.0 9.6 EBITDA % 12.3 10.7 8.6 ROCE % 12.8 9.7 5.2

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Excluding special items*

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SLIDE 4

EBITDA* reconciliation

4

Q3 FY18 to Q3 FY19

US$ million

Notes:

  • 1. All variances were calculated excluding Sappi Forestry.
  • 2. “Currency conversion” reflects translation and transactional effect on consolidation.
  • 3. EBITDA = EBITDA excluding special tems

50 75 100 125 150 175 200

155 (18) 29 (40) (10) (6) 8 118 Q3 FY18 EBITDA Sales volume Price & mix Variable & delivery costs Fixed costs Other Exchange rate Q3 FY19 EBITDA

Sales revenue

2019 2018 Exchange rates: Average rate for the Quarter: US$1 = ZAR 14.3772 12.6312 Average rate for the Quarter: €1 = US$ 1.1236 1.1920 Jun

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SLIDE 5

Product contribution split – LTM

5

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items. Data above excludes treasury operations and insurance captive.

44% 17% 39% Dissolving Wood Pulp Packaging & Speciality Papers Printing & Writing Papers 59% 10% 31% EBITDA excluding special items Operating profit excluding special items

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SLIDE 6

Maturity profile

Fiscal years

6

226 67 21 44 44 21 393 68 512 221 367 81 107

100 200 300 400 500 600 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2032 US$ million Cash Short-term SPH term debt Securitisation SSA EUR450m bond EUR350m bond US$221m bond

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SLIDE 7

Capex development

7

100 200 300 400 500 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F US$ million

Maintenance Efficiency and expansion Forecast

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SLIDE 8

8

Market and Segmental overview

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SLIDE 9

Global P&W paper market trends

9

 Supply and demand

 Demand remains very weak  Capacity reductions expected in US and Europe over next 18 months

 Selling prices and input costs

 Paper prices beginning to decline – driven by lower demand and lower costs  Pulp prices falling, led by China, partially offset by weaker Euro and Rand

 Strategy

 Focus on costs to maintain margins  Manage operating rates through downtime, market share, flexibility of machines  Reduce or convert capacity in line with demand declines  Increase pulp integration over time

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SLIDE 10

Global packaging and speciality paper market trends

10

 Supply and demand

 Additional containerboard conversions entering the market  Smaller speciality packaging producers exiting due to cost pressures  Demand continues to grow, long-term prospects encouraging, driven by legislation and

consumer preference

 Brand owners pushing for paper based packaging solutions

 Selling prices and input costs

 Realised prices rose, particularly for flexible packaging, labels, and silicone base papers  Pulp prices falling, led by China, partially offset by weaker Euro and Rand

 Strategy

 Ramp-up volumes from conversions, grow into new markets  We aim to be an innovative and sustainable supplier  Improve pulp integration – Matane acquisition announced

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SLIDE 11

Sappi Europe

11

Sales Tons -5%

year-on-year

Sales flat

year-on-year

EBITDA* -24%

year-on-year

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

  • Weak domestic and export demand - downtime of

30k tons ~US$8m EBITDA impact

  • Realised prices for graphics were 5% higher and
  • ur packaging and specialities were 4% higher

than last year

  • Variable costs 3% higher than last year, fixed

costs flat

  • Lanaken conversion complete
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SLIDE 12

Sappi North America

12

Sales Tons +1%

year-on-year

Sales +1%

year-on-year

EBITDA* -45%

year-on-year

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

  • Commercial downtime of 59kt ~ $11m EBITDA impact
  • Cloquet debottlenecking complete
  • Packaging and paperboard volumes continue to grow
  • Variable costs were 5% higher; fixed costs 7% lower

(last year included the extended shut of PM1)

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SLIDE 13

Global DWP market trends

13

 Supply and demand

 VSF capacity growing faster than demand, operating rates declining  Demand continues to be strong, growing by ~6% per annum

 Selling prices and input costs

 DWP selling prices declining as VSF prices and margins fall  Wood price increases, chemical costs declining

 Strategy

 Grow with the market (debottlenecked volumes 2018/19, 110kt expansion at Saiccor underway)  Evaluate external opportunities for more substantial increase in volumes – ROCE critical  Commitment to sustainability key

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SLIDE 14

Sappi South Africa

14

Sales Tons -2%

year-on-year

Sales +7%

year-on-year

EBITDA* +7%

year-on-year

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

  • Lower DWP pricing due to excess VSF capacity
  • DWP volumes were lower than prior quarter due

to scheduled annual maintenance at Ngodwana and Saiccor

  • Lower containerboard volumes - delayed start to

the citrus season

  • Variable costs 14% higher y-o-y (wood, energy)

fixed costs rose with inflation

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SLIDE 15

Maintain a healthy balance sheet Rationalise declining businesses Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments Achieve cost advantages

Improve

  • perational

and machine efficiencies Maximise procurement benefits Optimise business processes

Continuously balance paper supply and demand in all regions Where possible convert paper machines to higher margin businesses

Optimise working capital Strong cash generation Smart financing Expand paper packaging grades Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Extract value from our biorefinery stream

Our group strategy

15

At Sappi we do business with integrity and courage; making smart decisions which we execute with speed. Our values are underpinned by an unrelenting focus on and commitment to safety.

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SLIDE 16

Achieve cost advantages

Improve

  • perational

and machine efficiencies Maximise procurement benefits Optimise business processes

Our group strategy

16

 We work to lower fixed and variable costs,

increase cost efficiencies and invest for cost advantages.

 Group efficiency and procurement initiatives

+US$60m target for 2019

 Ongoing continuous improvement across all mills.  Investigate pulp integration opportunities in US and

EU – Matane acquisition

 Saiccor expansion will lead to lower variable costs  Evaluating P&W capacity in Europe

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SLIDE 17

Matane Mill Acquisition

Matane Mill Somerset Mill  Capacity of 270,000t per annum of aspen

and maple high yield pulp

 Mill located in Matane, Quebec

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SLIDE 18

Matane Mill acquisition

 Supports strategy and 2020 vision through the achievement of cost advantages and

growth in higher margin packaging and speciality paper.

 Increase the pulp integration by supplying high yield pulp to our US and European

packaging operations, thereby enabling Sappi to:

 Secure supply of a raw material critical to product quality  Reduce input pricing and volatility in profitability  Avoid higher capital cost of internal high yield pulp capacity – Estimated at $210m for 200kt

 Purchase price of US$175m represents 3.3X 2018 EBITDA of $53M and 7.0X Sappi’s

2019 estimated EBITDA of $25M

18

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SLIDE 19

Rationalise declining businesses

Continuously balance paper supply and demand in all regions Where possible convert paper machines to higher margin businesses

Our group strategy

19

 Recognising the decreasing demand for

graphic paper, we manage our capacity to strengthen our leadership position in these markets, realising their strategic importance to the group and maximising their significant cash flow generation.

 Downtime taken at mills to lower inventories  Progressive transition of Lanaken Mill out of LWC  Reduced CWF exposure at Maastricht, Ehingen and

Somerset PM1

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SLIDE 20

Maintain a healthy balance sheet

Optimise working capital Strong cash generation Smart financing

Our group strategy

20

 Maintain leverage below 2x Net debt:EBITDA  No new major capex commitments  Finance costs US$60-70m/annum going

forward

 7 yr €450m bond raised @3.125% - used to

repay €450m 2022 bond

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SLIDE 21

Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments

Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades

Our group strategy

21

 We will make investments in existing and

adjacent areas with strong potential growth.

 Debottlenecking of Saiccor, Ngodwana and Cloquet

DWP complete

 Expansion of Saiccor by 110kt/annum has started  Additional packaging at Ngodwana and Tugela Mills  Securing additional HW and SW timber supply  Biomaterials, bio-chemicals – lignins, sugars  Ramp-up of board grades at Maastricht and Somerset

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SLIDE 22

 DWP pricing will be under pressure but we expect volumes to continue to grow as we utilize our

expanded capacity

 Packaging and speciality end-markets are variable. Despite macro concerns, volumes are

growing; ramp-ups, trials and qualification progressing.

 Further weakness in graphic grades could result in additional downtime. We expect significant

industry capacity to shut/convert, and operating rates to rise.

 $200m in capex for the remainder of the year, majority at Saiccor and Lanaken  With weak graphic paper markets, DWP price pressure, we expect our results for Q4 will be

below that of the prior year

22

Outlook

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SLIDE 23

Thank you

23

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SLIDE 24

24

Supplementary information

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SLIDE 25

Excluding special items*

25

EBITDA and operating profit

* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

201 208 155 221 172 211 155 224 197 187 118 136 145 93 152 105 142 85 148 128 117 48

50 100 150 200 250 US$ million

EBITDA Operating profit ex special items

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SLIDE 26

26

Net debt/EBITDA development

* EBITDA is excluding special items. ** The covenant Net debt/LTM EBITDA calculation has adjustments and therefore differs from that shown above. 2,380 2,248 2,286 1,946 2,040 1,916 1,917 1,771 1,734 1,652 1583 1408 1338 1329 1318 1322 1349 1632 1603 1568 1557 1680 1728 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 US$ million Net debt Net debt/LTM EBITDA**

2.4 4.6

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SLIDE 27

Sappi specialities and packaging papers

27

Global production sites with the ability to switch between graphics and packaging at various sites*

Alfeld Mill (Germany) Containerboard, flex-pack, label, paperboard, silicone base papers Carmignano Mill (Italy) Flexible packaging and functional papers Condino Mill (Italy) Flexible packaging and functional packaging Cloquet Mill* (USA) Label papers Ehingen Mill* (Germany) Containerboard Maastricht Mill* (The Netherlands) Paperboard Ngodwana Mill (South Africa) Containerboard Somerset Mill* (USA) Label paper and flexible packaging paper Tugela Mill (South Africa) Containerboard Westbrook Mill (USA) Release papers Stockstadt Mill* (Germany) Flexible packaging and functional papers

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SLIDE 28

28

Product Groups and Products

EU Packaging and Specialities

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SLIDE 29

Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments

Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades

Packaging and Speciality papers expansion plans

29

 Europe

Maastricht: complete, ramp-up by 2021

  • 160k CWF, +150k specialities (FBB)

Ehingen: complete

  • 75k CWF, +60k specialities (WTL)

Alfeld: construction to start FY19, complete by Q4 FY20

+10k specialities (Various)

Lanaken: enable CWF on PM8, as market develops

 North America

Somerset: construction done, 3 year ramp up

  • 150k CWF, +350k specialities (SBS)
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SLIDE 30

30

Sappi Europe

* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Q3 FY19 Q3 FY18 FYTD 19 FYTD 18 Tons sold (‘000) 789 833 2,440 2,502 Sales (EURm) 637 636 1,953 1,824 Price/Ton (EUR) 807 764 800 729 Cost/Ton* (EUR) 785 726 771 689 Operating profit excluding special items** (EURm) 18 31 72 99

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SLIDE 31

Western Europe

31

Coated paper deliveries and prices

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2

Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19

CWF Demand MCR Demand CWF 100gsm Sheets LWC 60gsm offset reels Western Europe shipments including export. Source: Cepifine, Cepiprint and RISI indexed to calendar 1Q 2008.

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SLIDE 32

32

Sappi North America

* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Q3 FY19 Q3 FY18 FYTD 19 FYTD 18 Tons sold (‘000) 320 318 991 1,008 Sales (USDm) 343 339 1,072 1,044 Price/Ton (USD) 1,072 1,066 1,082 1,036 Cost/Ton* (USD) 1,100 1,063 1,072 1,018 Operating profit excluding special items** (USDm)

  • 9

1 10 18

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SLIDE 33

United States of America

33

Coated paper prices and shipments

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Domestic CWF shipments Domestic CWF purchases RISI price CFS #3 60lb rolls US industry purchases defined as industry shipments, plus imports, less exports. Source: AF&PA and RISI indexed to calendar Q1 FY08.

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SLIDE 34

34

Sappi South Africa

* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

Q3 FY19 Q3 FY18 FYTD 19 FYTD 18 Tons sold (‘000) 375 383 1,189 1,179 Sales (ZARm) 4,418 4,105 14,108 12,509 Price/Ton (ZAR) 11,781 10,718 11,866 10,610 Cost/Ton* (ZAR) 10,459 9,274 9,483 8,538 Operating profit excluding special items** (ZARm) 496 553 2,833 2,443

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SLIDE 35

35

Paper pulp prices*

* Source: FOEX 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 US$/ton NBSK Europe BHKP Europe BHKP China NBSK Europe Euros BHKP Europe Euros EUR/ton

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SLIDE 36

36

Dissolving pulp prices*

* Source: CCF group 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050

Imp SW DWP Imp HW DWP China origin DWP

US$/ton

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SLIDE 37

37

Textile fibre prices*

* Source: CCF group. 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 Cotton 328 Cotton "A" Index PSF 1.4 D VSF 1.2 D VSF 1.5 D

US$/ton

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SLIDE 38

Cash flow

38

US$m Q3 FY19 Q3 FY18 FYTD 19 FYTD 18 Cash generated from operations 118 141 497 497

Movement in working capital 20 33 (147) (85) Net finance costs paid (15) (21) (40) (42) Taxation (paid) refund (5) (6) (51) (50) Dividend paid

  • (92)

(81)

Cash generated from operating activities 118 147 167 239 Cash utilised in investing activities (135) (188) (339) (519)

Capital expenditure (135) (188) (336) (395) Proceeds on disposal of assets 1 1 2 11 Acquisition of subsidiary

  • (132)

Other non-current asset movements (1) (1) (5) (3)

Net cash generated (utilised) (17) (41) (172) (280)

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SLIDE 39

Excluding special items* reconciliation to reported operating profit

39

EBITDA and operating profit

* Refer to page 22 in our Q3 FY19 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.

US$m Q3 FY19 Q3 FY18 FYTD 19 FYTD 18

EBITDA excluding special items* 118 155 502 538

Depreciation and amortisation (70) (70) (209) (206)

Operating profit excluding special items* 48 85 293 332 Special items* - gains (losses)

(2) (1) (7) 22 Plantation price fair value adjustment 1 8 14 30 Acquisition cost

  • (2)

Net restructuring provisions

  • 2

Profit on disposal and written off assets (1) (1) (4) 8 Asset impairments

  • (11)
  • Asset impairment reversals
  • 3

8 3 Black Economic Empowerment charge

  • (1)

Fire, flood, storm and other events (2) (11) (14) (18)

Segment operating profit 46 84 286 354

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SLIDE 40

Fibre properties and applications

40

Cellulosic fibre properties helping drive that growth

Source: IHS Global, RISI, Hawkins Wright.

Key strength Qualifies Issue Apparel Home textiles Nonwovens/Technical textiles

Overall value proposition Applications Function and feel Appearance Sustainability 17 62 21 66 27 7 52 20 28 Cellulosic fibres Cotton Polyester

  • On a pure

property basis, cellulosic fibres are superior to cotton and differentiated

  • n

sustainability.

  • Polyester is

differentiated

  • n strength/

durability versus cotton and cellulosic fibres.

  • Natural and attractive,

‘greener’ alternative to cotton

  • Natural, functional and

well established

  • Cheap, durable and

versatile Durability

 

Absorbency

 

Breathability

 

Softness

  

Drape

 

Dyeability

  

Brightness/Lustre

  

Renewable and biodegradeable

 

Resource efficiency



 

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SLIDE 41

41

There is still significant headroom to increase the level of cellulosic fibre blending in most sub-categories

Source: Expert interviews.

POLYESTER

Future Today Gap Today Future Gap Today Future Gap

COTTON CELLULOSIC

Apparel Home textile Towels 5% 5% 0% 80% 75%

  • 6%

15% 20% +33% Bedding 45% 55% +22% 45% 40%

  • 11%

1% 2% +100% Denim 5% 5% 95% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0% Shirts 35% 40% +14% 50% 40%

  • 20%

15% 20% +33% T-shirts 30% 50% +67% 70% 50%

  • 29%

3% 5% 0% Dresses 10% 10% 0% 35% 25%

  • 29%

55% 65% +18% Suits 35% 40% +14% 25% 20%

  • 20%

~1% ~2% +100% Sportswear 85% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 15% 0% Casual wear 45% 50% +11% 45% 35%

  • 22%

10% 15% +50%

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SLIDE 42

Thank you

42