1 August 2019
Chief Executive Officer Steve Binnie Sappi Limited
Q3 FY19 financial results
delivering on
strategy
2019
Vision 2020
intentional
evolution
next phase
growth
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Q3 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 1 August 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q3 FY19 financial results delivering on strategy 1 August 2019 2019 Vision 2020 next phase growth intentional evolution Steve Binnie Chief Executive Officer Sappi Limited 1 Forward-looking statements and Regulation G
Chief Executive Officer Steve Binnie Sappi Limited
delivering on
intentional
evolution
next phase
1
2
Certain statements in this release that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information, are forward-looking statements, including but not limited to statements that are predictions of
“risk” and other similar expressions, which are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends and which do not relate to historical matters, identify forward-looking statements. In addition, this document includes forward-looking statements relating to our potential exposure to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk and commodity price risk. You should not rely on forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are in some cases beyond our control and may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements (and from past results, performance or achievements). Certain factors that may cause such differences include but are not limited to:
The highly cyclical nature of the pulp and paper industry (and the factors that contribute to such cyclicality, such as levels of demand, production capacity, production, input costs including raw
material, energy and employee costs, and pricing)
The impact on our business of adverse changes in global economic conditions Unanticipated production disruptions (including as a result of planned or unexpected power outages) Changes in environmental, tax and other laws and regulations Adverse changes in the markets for our products The emergence of new technologies and changes in consumer trends including increased preferences for digital media Consequences of our leverage, including as a result of adverse changes in credit markets that affect our ability to raise capital when needed Adverse changes in the political situation and economy in the countries in which we operate or the effect of governmental efforts to address present or future economic or social problems The impact of restructurings, investments, acquisitions, dispositions and other strategic initiatives (including related financing), any delays, unexpected costs or other problems experienced in
connection with dispositions or with integrating acquisitions or implementing restructurings or other strategic initiatives, and achieving expected savings and synergies, and
Currency fluctuations.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information or future events or circumstances or otherwise.
Certain non-GAAP financial information is contained in this presentation that management believe may be useful in comparing the company’s operating results from period to period. Reconciliation's of certain of the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in the quarterly results booklet for the relevant period. These booklets are available on our website: https://www.sappi.com/quarterly-reports.
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Key ratios Q3 FY17 Q3 FY18 Q3 FY19 Net debt/LTM EBITDA 1.7 2.1 2.4 Interest cover 8.4 11.0 9.6 EBITDA % 12.3 10.7 8.6 ROCE % 12.8 9.7 5.2
* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
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US$ million
Notes:
50 75 100 125 150 175 200
155 (18) 29 (40) (10) (6) 8 118 Q3 FY18 EBITDA Sales volume Price & mix Variable & delivery costs Fixed costs Other Exchange rate Q3 FY19 EBITDA
Sales revenue
2019 2018 Exchange rates: Average rate for the Quarter: US$1 = ZAR 14.3772 12.6312 Average rate for the Quarter: €1 = US$ 1.1236 1.1920 Jun
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items. Data above excludes treasury operations and insurance captive.
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100 200 300 400 500 600 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2032 US$ million Cash Short-term SPH term debt Securitisation SSA EUR450m bond EUR350m bond US$221m bond
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100 200 300 400 500 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F US$ million
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Demand remains very weak Capacity reductions expected in US and Europe over next 18 months
Paper prices beginning to decline – driven by lower demand and lower costs Pulp prices falling, led by China, partially offset by weaker Euro and Rand
Focus on costs to maintain margins Manage operating rates through downtime, market share, flexibility of machines Reduce or convert capacity in line with demand declines Increase pulp integration over time
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Additional containerboard conversions entering the market Smaller speciality packaging producers exiting due to cost pressures Demand continues to grow, long-term prospects encouraging, driven by legislation and
Brand owners pushing for paper based packaging solutions
Realised prices rose, particularly for flexible packaging, labels, and silicone base papers Pulp prices falling, led by China, partially offset by weaker Euro and Rand
Ramp-up volumes from conversions, grow into new markets We aim to be an innovative and sustainable supplier Improve pulp integration – Matane acquisition announced
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
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VSF capacity growing faster than demand, operating rates declining Demand continues to be strong, growing by ~6% per annum
DWP selling prices declining as VSF prices and margins fall Wood price increases, chemical costs declining
Grow with the market (debottlenecked volumes 2018/19, 110kt expansion at Saiccor underway) Evaluate external opportunities for more substantial increase in volumes – ROCE critical Commitment to sustainability key
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Maintain a healthy balance sheet Rationalise declining businesses Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments Achieve cost advantages
Improve
and machine efficiencies Maximise procurement benefits Optimise business processes
Continuously balance paper supply and demand in all regions Where possible convert paper machines to higher margin businesses
Optimise working capital Strong cash generation Smart financing Expand paper packaging grades Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Extract value from our biorefinery stream
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Improve
and machine efficiencies Maximise procurement benefits Optimise business processes
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Group efficiency and procurement initiatives
Ongoing continuous improvement across all mills. Investigate pulp integration opportunities in US and
Saiccor expansion will lead to lower variable costs Evaluating P&W capacity in Europe
Mill located in Matane, Quebec
Supports strategy and 2020 vision through the achievement of cost advantages and
Increase the pulp integration by supplying high yield pulp to our US and European
Secure supply of a raw material critical to product quality Reduce input pricing and volatility in profitability Avoid higher capital cost of internal high yield pulp capacity – Estimated at $210m for 200kt
Purchase price of US$175m represents 3.3X 2018 EBITDA of $53M and 7.0X Sappi’s
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Continuously balance paper supply and demand in all regions Where possible convert paper machines to higher margin businesses
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Downtime taken at mills to lower inventories Progressive transition of Lanaken Mill out of LWC Reduced CWF exposure at Maastricht, Ehingen and
Optimise working capital Strong cash generation Smart financing
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Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades
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Debottlenecking of Saiccor, Ngodwana and Cloquet
Expansion of Saiccor by 110kt/annum has started Additional packaging at Ngodwana and Tugela Mills Securing additional HW and SW timber supply Biomaterials, bio-chemicals – lignins, sugars Ramp-up of board grades at Maastricht and Somerset
DWP pricing will be under pressure but we expect volumes to continue to grow as we utilize our
Packaging and speciality end-markets are variable. Despite macro concerns, volumes are
Further weakness in graphic grades could result in additional downtime. We expect significant
$200m in capex for the remainder of the year, majority at Saiccor and Lanaken With weak graphic paper markets, DWP price pressure, we expect our results for Q4 will be
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
201 208 155 221 172 211 155 224 197 187 118 136 145 93 152 105 142 85 148 128 117 48
50 100 150 200 250 US$ million
EBITDA Operating profit ex special items
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* EBITDA is excluding special items. ** The covenant Net debt/LTM EBITDA calculation has adjustments and therefore differs from that shown above. 2,380 2,248 2,286 1,946 2,040 1,916 1,917 1,771 1,734 1,652 1583 1408 1338 1329 1318 1322 1349 1632 1603 1568 1557 1680 1728 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 US$ million Net debt Net debt/LTM EBITDA**
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Alfeld Mill (Germany) Containerboard, flex-pack, label, paperboard, silicone base papers Carmignano Mill (Italy) Flexible packaging and functional papers Condino Mill (Italy) Flexible packaging and functional packaging Cloquet Mill* (USA) Label papers Ehingen Mill* (Germany) Containerboard Maastricht Mill* (The Netherlands) Paperboard Ngodwana Mill (South Africa) Containerboard Somerset Mill* (USA) Label paper and flexible packaging paper Tugela Mill (South Africa) Containerboard Westbrook Mill (USA) Release papers Stockstadt Mill* (Germany) Flexible packaging and functional papers
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EU Packaging and Specialities
Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades
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Europe
+10k specialities (Various)
North America
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* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q3 FY19 Q3 FY18 FYTD 19 FYTD 18 Tons sold (‘000) 789 833 2,440 2,502 Sales (EURm) 637 636 1,953 1,824 Price/Ton (EUR) 807 764 800 729 Cost/Ton* (EUR) 785 726 771 689 Operating profit excluding special items** (EURm) 18 31 72 99
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0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2
Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19
CWF Demand MCR Demand CWF 100gsm Sheets LWC 60gsm offset reels Western Europe shipments including export. Source: Cepifine, Cepiprint and RISI indexed to calendar 1Q 2008.
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* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q3 FY19 Q3 FY18 FYTD 19 FYTD 18 Tons sold (‘000) 320 318 991 1,008 Sales (USDm) 343 339 1,072 1,044 Price/Ton (USD) 1,072 1,066 1,082 1,036 Cost/Ton* (USD) 1,100 1,063 1,072 1,018 Operating profit excluding special items** (USDm)
1 10 18
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0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Domestic CWF shipments Domestic CWF purchases RISI price CFS #3 60lb rolls US industry purchases defined as industry shipments, plus imports, less exports. Source: AF&PA and RISI indexed to calendar Q1 FY08.
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* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 22 in our Q3 FY19 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q3 FY19 Q3 FY18 FYTD 19 FYTD 18 Tons sold (‘000) 375 383 1,189 1,179 Sales (ZARm) 4,418 4,105 14,108 12,509 Price/Ton (ZAR) 11,781 10,718 11,866 10,610 Cost/Ton* (ZAR) 10,459 9,274 9,483 8,538 Operating profit excluding special items** (ZARm) 496 553 2,833 2,443
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* Source: FOEX 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 US$/ton NBSK Europe BHKP Europe BHKP China NBSK Europe Euros BHKP Europe Euros EUR/ton
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* Source: CCF group 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050
Imp SW DWP Imp HW DWP China origin DWP
US$/ton
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* Source: CCF group. 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 Cotton 328 Cotton "A" Index PSF 1.4 D VSF 1.2 D VSF 1.5 D
US$/ton
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US$m Q3 FY19 Q3 FY18 FYTD 19 FYTD 18 Cash generated from operations 118 141 497 497
Movement in working capital 20 33 (147) (85) Net finance costs paid (15) (21) (40) (42) Taxation (paid) refund (5) (6) (51) (50) Dividend paid
(81)
Cash generated from operating activities 118 147 167 239 Cash utilised in investing activities (135) (188) (339) (519)
Capital expenditure (135) (188) (336) (395) Proceeds on disposal of assets 1 1 2 11 Acquisition of subsidiary
Other non-current asset movements (1) (1) (5) (3)
Net cash generated (utilised) (17) (41) (172) (280)
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* Refer to page 22 in our Q3 FY19 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
US$m Q3 FY19 Q3 FY18 FYTD 19 FYTD 18
EBITDA excluding special items* 118 155 502 538
Depreciation and amortisation (70) (70) (209) (206)
Operating profit excluding special items* 48 85 293 332 Special items* - gains (losses)
(2) (1) (7) 22 Plantation price fair value adjustment 1 8 14 30 Acquisition cost
Net restructuring provisions
Profit on disposal and written off assets (1) (1) (4) 8 Asset impairments
8 3 Black Economic Empowerment charge
Fire, flood, storm and other events (2) (11) (14) (18)
Segment operating profit 46 84 286 354
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Source: IHS Global, RISI, Hawkins Wright.
Key strength Qualifies Issue Apparel Home textiles Nonwovens/Technical textiles
Overall value proposition Applications Function and feel Appearance Sustainability 17 62 21 66 27 7 52 20 28 Cellulosic fibres Cotton Polyester
property basis, cellulosic fibres are superior to cotton and differentiated
sustainability.
differentiated
durability versus cotton and cellulosic fibres.
‘greener’ alternative to cotton
well established
versatile Durability
Absorbency
Breathability
Softness
Drape
Dyeability
Brightness/Lustre
Renewable and biodegradeable
Resource efficiency
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Source: Expert interviews.
POLYESTER
Future Today Gap Today Future Gap Today Future Gap
COTTON CELLULOSIC
Apparel Home textile Towels 5% 5% 0% 80% 75%
15% 20% +33% Bedding 45% 55% +22% 45% 40%
1% 2% +100% Denim 5% 5% 95% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0% Shirts 35% 40% +14% 50% 40%
15% 20% +33% T-shirts 30% 50% +67% 70% 50%
3% 5% 0% Dresses 10% 10% 0% 35% 25%
55% 65% +18% Suits 35% 40% +14% 25% 20%
~1% ~2% +100% Sportswear 85% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 15% 0% Casual wear 45% 50% +11% 45% 35%
10% 15% +50%
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