Investor Presentation April 2019 2 General: This presentation and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation April 2019 2 General: This presentation and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation April 2019 2 General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains securities regulatory authorities. Accordingly, readers should exercise historical information, descriptions of current circumstances and
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General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains historical information, descriptions of current circumstances and statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial
- results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its
entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s) management’s discussion and analysis for the year ended December 31, 2018 (MD&A), available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts of the information contained in this presentation to the exclusion of others. Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward- looking statements” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”, “intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”, “will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances contain forward- looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead represent management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Actual outcomes and results of these statements will depend on a number of factors including those matters described under “Risks and Uncertainties”, in our MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or projected. Reference should be made to the other factors discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities. Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward-looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required by applicable securities laws. Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain non- IFRS measures, such as EBITDA. Non-IFRS measures do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the “Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A. External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the information presented herein is based on or derived from statements by third parties and has not been independently verified by or
- n behalf by WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied,
is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information or any other information or opinions contained herein. Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated. Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm” mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our most recent Annual Report.
West Fraser Overview
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We Attain Value from 100% of Our Resources
MDF Supply agreements (e.g. pellet plants BCTMP Pulp NBSK Pulp Bioproducts Heat & Electricity Sawdust & shavings Chips Bark (fuel) Plywood & LVL Lumber
Reforestation Sustainably managed forest lands
Integrated fiber strategy to maximize the value of the log
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Product & Geographic Diversification
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Lumber Pulp Panels
Lumber
34 mills
SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 3.2 Bfbm Total 7.1 Bfbm
Panels
7 mills
Pulp & Paper
5 mills
Plywood: 860 MMsf3/8” MDF: 250 MMsf3/4” LVL: 2.6 MMcf NBSK: 570 Mtonnes BCTMP: 690 Mtonnes Newsprint: 135 Mtonnes
2018 Revenue Mix by Business Segment 2018 Revenue Mix by Country
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
China Canada Other US
Diversified across multiple end uses
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Operations Diversification
Strong presence in key lumber producing regions and forest product markets
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North American Lumber Capacity
Source: Public filings, Forest Economic Advisors and West Fraser estimates
British Columbia 77% Alberta 12% US South 11% West Fraser Lumber Capacity 2004 2.8 Billion feet British Columbia 31% Alberta 24% US South 45% West Fraser Lumber Capacity 2018 7.1 Billion feet 2000 4000 6000 8000 Idaho Forest Tolko Hampton Resolute Sierra Pacific GP Interfor Weyco Canfor West Fraser
MMfbm
Top 10 represent 48% of capacity
West Fraser has largest share of a growing market
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* Adjusted EBITDA is defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity based compensation and export duties.
Consolidated Financial Results
$ Millions Adjusted EBITDA 2018 2017 Lumber $ 1,156 $ 884 Panels 127 113 Pulp & Paper 258 172 Corporate/Other (3) (9) Total $ 1,538 $ 1,160 EBITDA margin 25.1% 22.6% 2018 2017 Sales $ 6,118 $ 5,134 Cost and Expenses 5,046 4,264 Operating earnings 1,072 870 Finance Expense (37) (31) Other 37 7 Earnings before Tax $ 1,072 $ 846 Tax provision (262) (250) Net earnings $ 810 $ 596 Diluted EPS $ 10.62 $ 7.63
Strong pricing resulting in significant earnings growth and cash flow
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Total liquidity and Debt/EBITDA
$553 $444 $553 $551 $551 $400 $562 $556 $491 $50 $86 $231 $132 $258 $100 $302 $282 $160 $- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 Q4/2016 Q1/2017 Q2/2017 Q3/2017 Q4/2017 Q1/2018 Q2/2018 Q3/2018 Q4/2018 Undrawn Bank Lines Cash Total Liquidity Q4/2016 Q1/2017 Q2/2017 Q3/2017 Q4/2017 Q1/2018 Q2/2018 Q3/2018 Q4/2018 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 Debt/EBITDA
Strong Liquidity, Conservative Leverage Profile
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Capital Investment
Modernization initiatives Capacity / Production Grade Recovery 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 2015 2016 2017 2018
Capital Expenditure vs Amortization
Capital Depreciation Percent $236 $117 $17
Capital Expenditure by type
Profit improvement Maintenance Safety $284 $16 $60 $10
Segment Capital Expenditure
Lumber Panels Pulp and Paper Corporate
Consistent investment in the operations
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Balanced Capital allocation
Consistently deploying capital to create value
Capital Expenditure, 43% Acquisitions, 21% Buybacks & Dividends, 38%
Debt, Other & Retained, -2%
$1.1B returned to shareholders $1.8B Reinvested in the business
$2,801 $90 $1,199 $602 $110 $942 $100 $42 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000
Cash from
- perations
Capital Expenditure Acquisitions Debt service and leverage Dividends Buybacks Other Retained cash flow
2015 through 2018
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Share repurchases
Consistently buying back shares, trading liquidity remains robust
Average repurchase price: 2013 $44.60 2014 $51.86 2015 $55.57 2016 $44.06 2017 $68.45 2018 $83.13 2019 $70.75 To date $66.09
As of March 31, 2019
$3 $115 $174 $364 $381 $1,057 $1,108 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Cumulative investment in repurchases (millions of dollars) 50,000 100,000 150,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1-19 Annualized
Total volume traded (000)
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West Fraser Total Shareholder Return
Share Value Traded
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 2018 2017 2016 WFT CFP IFP
Cdn$ Million
11.3% 11.1% 6.2% 5.4% 4.2% 5.7% 5.0% 2.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
West Fraser Dow DAX S&P/TSX FTSE Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C
TSR June 2006 to February 2019
Source: TD
✓ Proven ability to generate strong cash flow, even in difficult markets ✓ Consistent, straightforward business plan ✓ Loyal, long-term employee and management base ✓ Conservative financial management coupled with proven ability to grow strategically ✓ Strong historical shareholder returns
Market Overview
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North America Lumber End Use and Consumption
North America Lumber End Use 2018
Source: FEA New Residential 29% Residential Improvements 40% Industrial 25% Non-residential Other 6% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Billion ft
North America Lumber Consumption
Housing Construction Residential Improvements Industrial/Other
Residential improvements and industrial demand are lower volatility demand drivers
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0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% $270 $280 $290 $300 $310 $320 $330 $340 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418
Expenditures % change
Demand conditions U.S.
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 J F M A M J J A S O N D
U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)
2017 2018 2019
2017: 1,203 2018: 1,250
Repair and renovation growth continues
Leading indicator of Remodeling Activity
Monthly $B 4 Qtr Moving Improvements and Repairs 4 Qtr Moving rate of Change Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies
Limited growth needed for increased demand of 1 – 2 billion board feet
U.S. Housing Forecast (000) 2019 2020 RBC 1,313 1,335 RISI 1,290 1,330 FEA 1,277 1,386 Mortgage Brokers 1,274 1,320 Wells Fargo 1,270 1,290 NAHB 1,266 1,300 Fannie Mae 1,256 1,288 APA 1,230 1,220 Average 1,272 1,309
50k annual
increase in housing starts
3% growth in repair and renovation
~600Mfbm increase in lumber demand ~1,000Mfbm increase in lumber demand
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U.S. Housing Starts
US New Housing construction remains at tempered levels
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Source: US Census Bureau, Statistics Canada, West Fraser Forecast
North American Lumber Consumption
Lumber demand growth trending at ~ 2 billion board feet per year
75 72 64 51 39 43 43 45 48 50 53 56 58 59 60 62 64 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F Billion Feet
US Consumption Canadian Consumption
19 19
Precipitation Fallout
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Adverse weather one factor tempering demand
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Demand Conditions Offshore
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
North American Offshore Lumber Exports (Billion BF)
Offshore Exports US Offshore Exports Canada
(1) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
North American Offshore Lumber Exports less Imports
(Billion BF)
Source: WWPA, Stats Canada, Random Lengths
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
US$/Mfbm Billion BF
North American Offshore Lumber Imports
NA Imports SPF 2x4 2&btr (R axis)
North America is still a significant net exporter of lumber
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Chinese Lumber Demand
Source: FEA
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 M cubic meters
North America Russia Europe Other
1 million cubic meters = ~ 295 million board feet
Although price sensitive, China continues to import significant lumber
22 22 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2018Q4 2019 Q1 Western Canada Curtailments
Supply conditions
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 BC Canada US Total NA Lumber Supply 2017 2018
Down 5.5% Down 3.2% Up 3.3% Up .3%
Source: Western Wood Products Association, management estimates Source: Industry analysts, public filings, management estimates
Supply growth challenges
- Equipment cost inflation affecting paybacks leads to cancelations
- Contractor availability and lead times
- Residual markets (new and existing)
- Slower than expected start up schedule
- Temporary curtailments become permanent
Billion fbm MMfbm
Mix of temporary and permanent
Curtailments a headwind to supply growth
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Source: FEA, BC Forest Service
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
Billion BF (softwood lumber production) Million m3 (AAC & Harvest)
British Columbia Interior
AAC (m3) Harvest (m3) Softwood Lumber Production (BBF)
Log supply constraints will create price pressure $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $/M3
British Columbia Interior Purchase Log Cost
Annual Allowable Cut on the decline in BC Interior
Pine beetle and fires impacting log supply, leading to higher input costs
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Share of North American Lumber Production
Source: US Census Bureau & Statistics Canada
12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Canada West Canada East US South US West
Western Canada a key supply region, facing fibre cost and availability headwinds
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North American Lumber Production
Source: US Census Bureau & Statistics Canada
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000
Alberta Eastern Canada BC US South US Other
MMfbm
North America Softwood Lumber Production
Millions of Board Feet 2005 2018
(25%) (30%) (18%)
Growth constrained in several significant lumber producing regions
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Market Pulp Supply and Demand
- No new major capacity additions 2018 to 2020
- Pulp demand projected to grow 2.3% over next
5 years
- Demand growth driven by tissue and packaging
demand
- Growth will be primarily in Asia
- Conversions of chemical pulp to dissolving pulp
will constrain both softwood & hardwood pulp supply
20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Chemical Pulp Demand (M tonnes)
China Demand % of World Demand (R axis)
Source: PPPC
Chemical Pulp BCTMP
Growth in China demand for pulp creates favorable market dynamics
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West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.
These materials have been prepared by Management of the Company. No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved of the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the Company, and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of the Company’s securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Securities of the Company may not be offered or sold in the United States absent their prior registration or qualification or an applicable exemption from the applicable registration or qualification requirements.
“WFT” – Toronto Stock Exchange www.WestFraser.com
APPENDIX
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Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables
Estimated Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables1 (2018) Factor Variation Change in pre-tax earnings Lumber price US$10 (per Mfbm) 90 Plywood price Cdn$10 (per Msf) 8 NBSK price US$10 (per tonne) 7 BCTMP price US$10 (per tonne) 9 U.S. - Canadian $ exchange rate US$0.01 (per Cdn$) 29
(based on 2018 production - $ millions)
1. Each sensitivity has been calculated on the basis that all other variables remain constant and assumes year end foreign exchange rates. 2. Excludes exchange impact of translation of US. Dollar-denominated debt and other monetary items. Reflects the amount of the initial US$0.01 change; additional changes are substantially, but not exactly, linear.