Q2 Earnings Presentation July 2020 2 General: This presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q2 Earnings Presentation July 2020 2 General: This presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q2 Earnings Presentation July 2020 2 General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward- historical information, descriptions of current circumstances
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General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains historical information, descriptions
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current circumstances and statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial
- results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its
entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s) management’s discussion and analysis for the annual and interim periods ended December 31, 2019, (Annual MD&A) and for the interim period ended June 30, 2020 (Q2 MD&A), and the company’s annual audited and interim financial statements for such periods available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts of the information contained in this presentation to the exclusion of others. Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward- looking statements” (including those under the headings Supply Conditions and Summary) within the meaning of applicable securities
- laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable
guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward- looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “an
- pportunity
exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”, “intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”, “will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of future events
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circumstances contain forward-looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead represent management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not
- ccur.
Actual
- utcomes
and results
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these statements will depend on a number of factors including those matters described under “Risks and Uncertainties”, in our Annual MD&A and in
- ur Q1 MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or
projected. Reference should be made to the other factors discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities. . Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward- looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or
- ral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required
by applicable securities laws. Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and net debt to capital ratio. Non-IFRS measures do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the “Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the information presented herein is based on or derived from statements by third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf by WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information or any other information
- r opinions contained herein.
Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated. Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm” mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our most recent Annual Report.
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* Adjusted EBITDAis defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity-based compensation, and export duties.
Consolidated Financial Results
$ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q2-20 Q1-20 Lumber $ 156 $ 106 Panels 20 8 Pulp & Paper 10 11 Corporate/Other (2) 2 Total $ 184 $ 127 Adjusted EBITDA margin 14.40% 10.06% $ Millions Q2-20 Q1-20 Sales $ 1,276 $ 1,195 Cost and Expenses 1,193 1,182 Operating earnings 83 13 Finance Expense (13) (16) Other 9 12 Earnings before Tax $ 67 $ 9 Tax recovery (provision) (19) 3 Net earnings $ 48 $ 12
Improved pricing and volume in lumber segment
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Q2 EBITDA Reconciliations
Improved pricing and costs over Q1
$ millions
Lumber EBITDA Reconciliation Consolidated EBITDA Reconciliation
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Q2-20 versus Q1-20
$ millions unless
- therwise indicated
Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Change Lumber Production (MMfbm) 1,424 1,501 (77) Temporary curtailments offset by increased productivity Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,591 1,426 165 Catch up from Q1 delays, increased export shipments Adjusted EBITDA $184 $127 $57 Lumber price and cost benefits, insurance claim gain in panels Cash flow from operations $439 ($122) $561 Improved earnings, seasonal working capital liquidation and income tax refunds Capital Expenditure $60 $59 $1 Major projects on track Net Debt Net Debt to Capital $939 28% $1,325 33% ($386) (5%) Debt paid down from operating cash flow Cumulative duties on deposit US$ $436 $407 $29 Rates set to adjust in Q4 2020
Earnings and cash flow improved despite uncertain conditions
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Liquidity
Available liquidity improved to $800 million
Cash consists of cash and short-term investments less cheques issued in excess of funds on deposit.
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0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% $250 $260 $270 $280 $290 $300 $310 $320 $330 $340
Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220
Expenditures % change
Demand conditions
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 J F M A M J J A S O N D M Starts
U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)
2018 2019 2020 Seasonally adjusted: 2018: 1,250 2019: 1,290
Leading indicator of Remodeling Activity
$B 4 Qtr Moving Improvements and Repairs 4 Qtr Moving rate of Change Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies Source: Statistics Canada, US Census Source: PPPC
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 J F M A M J J A S O N D MM tonnes
World Chemical Pulp Shipments
2018 2019 2020 2018: 61.1 2019: 63.5 2020: 25.9 YTD 100 200 300 400 500 600 J F M A M J J A S O N D MMfbm
North America Offshore Exports
2018 2019 2020 2018: 5,967 2019: 4,968 2020: 1,655 YTD
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U.S. Housing Situation
Supply deficit, aging stock
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Millions
Source: U.S. Census, FEA and https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/historical_data/index.html
1982 is the only year before 2008 with fewer units than 1.2 million units
Supply of new U.S. housing (1968-2019) 27 27 29 29 30 31 31 32 34 35 37 39 40 20 30 40 50 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Years in age
US Housing Stock Age
A deficit in housing has accumulated over the last 10+ years Low levels of new construction has led to an aging housing stock
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Favourable Demographics
- 500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 MILLIONS
US Population by Age (at July 1, 2020)
Source: FEA and https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-detail.html
29-30 year-olds are the largest age groups in 2020
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Supply conditions
Source: FEA
Lumber supply constraints
Source: Statistics Canada, US Census, FEA
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20
MMfbm
North America Offshore Imports
2018: 1,548 2019: 1,508
1 2 3 4 5 6 5 10 15 20
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Billion Board Feet Billion Board Feet
North America Lumber Supply (Production) North America BC US South US West Coast East of Rockies
R-axis
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McDavid, Florida Update
Project Cost: $23 million USD Project Scope: Replace the existing primary breakdown line with new technology capable of operating 50% faster than the previous system with a reduced headcount and improved recovery and grade mix. Project Timeline: The project was commissioned in Q4 2019 with a month of downtime required to integrate the new equipment into the existing mill. The project was completed on time and on budget.
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McDavid, Florida
Production (mfbm / hour)
- Achieved targeted production per hour
- Continuing to improve recovery
- Premium grade improved 64%,
2&btr % continues to rise 63% increase Manufacturing Costs ($/mfbm)
- Per Unit Costs continue to decline with
improved production
- Startup costs have been spent
Human Resources (hourly headcount)
- Achieved headcount reduction
- Productivity improvement of 60%
- Improved working conditions
19% decrease 10% decrease
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Summary
✓ Lumber and panel markets came back faster than expected ✓ Supply chain inventory position taking time to rebuild ✓ Liquidity substantially improved, leverage reduced ✕ Lower printing and writing paper demand for pulp creating pressure on pulp markets ✓ Continue to operationalize the benefits of prior year capital ✓ Preserve and manage liquidity conservatively ✓ Complete Dudley and Opelika projects