PWD Water Supply Planning: Introduction Regulated Flow Advisory - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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PWD Water Supply Planning: Introduction Regulated Flow Advisory - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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PWD Water Supply Planning: Introduction Regulated Flow Advisory Committee May 24, 2018 Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 1

PWD Water Supply Planning: Introduction

Regulated Flow Advisory Committee May 24, 2018

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 2

Water Supply Planning Introduction

2

  • 1. Utility overview
  • 2. The need for planning
  • 3. Planning scope

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 3

PWD Water Supply Planning

3 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING

  • Multi‐year water supply planning effort
  • Designed to support parallel water and wastewater

infrastructure planning efforts

  • Critical need to understand the potential risks to

infrastructure, regulatory compliance and public health of current and future water quality and quantity

  • Water supply planning , specifically, is focusing on three

critical drivers ‐Climate change ‐Ambient water quality changes ‐Policy changes

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 4

Philadelphia Water Department

4 | WATER SUPPLY

Drinking Water Wastewater Stormwater

  • 1.7 million drinking

water customers

  • 3 Water Treatment

Plants

  • 2.2 million

wastewater customers

  • 3 Water Pollution

Control Plants

  • 60% Combined, 40%

Separate Sewers

  • Large‐scale green

infrastructure pgm.

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 5

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

5 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Climate change will exacerbate salinity intrusion

  • Climate changes – sea level has

risen ~0.64 feet since 1960

  • Ambient water quality changes
  • Policy changes

CUSP 90th pcntl. projections for sea level rise from a 2000‐2004 baseline

2020s 2050s 2080s 0.8 ft.

(0.2 m)

2.4 ft.

(0.7 m)

4.5 ft.

(1.4 m)

Source: Climate Central, 2017 (5 ft. SLR over MHHW)

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 6

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

6 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Freshwater chlorides have tripled since the 1960s

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality changes
  • Policy changes

10 20 30 40 50 60 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Chloride, mg/L

Delaware River at Trenton Chloride 1955‐2018

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 7

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

7 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Freshwater chlorides have tripled since the Decree and Good Faith Agr.

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality changes – chlorides have tripled
  • Policy changes

10 20 30 40 50 60 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Chloride, mg/L

Delaware River at Trenton Chloride 1955‐2018

60s DROUGHT NOW GOOD FAITH AGREEMENT

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 8

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

8 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Chloride during the worst salinity intrusion event in the Delaware River

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality – 1960s drought led to salinity policies
  • Policy changes

10 20 30 40 50 Apr‐64 Jun‐64 Aug‐64 Oct‐64 Dec‐64 Feb‐65 Apr‐65 Jun‐65 Aug‐65 Oct‐65 Dec‐65 Chloride, mg/L

1960s Chloride at PWD and Trenton

PWD Chloride Trenton Chloride

During intrusion,

  • cean salt reaches

PWD, increasing chloride

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 9

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

9 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Chlorides today are equivalent to those during the drought of record

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality – 1960s drought led to salinity policies
  • Policy changes

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 10 20 30 40 50 Apr‐64 Jun‐64 Aug‐64 Oct‐64 Dec‐64 Feb‐65 Apr‐65 Jun‐65 Aug‐65 Oct‐65 Dec‐65 Discharge, CFS Chloride, mg/L

1960s Chloride and Streamflow

PWD Chloride Trenton Chloride Trenton, CFS

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 10

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

10 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING

Major Takeaway #1 Ambient chloride concentrations today are equivalent to the worst salinity intrusion of record in the 1960s Salinity intrusion chloride = ambient chloride + ocean salt

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 11

FFMP Table 1 Interstate Operation Formula

11 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Current flow objectives are designed to prevent salinity intrusion

NYC Storage Condition Montague Objective, CFS Trenton Objective, CFS Normal (L1, L2) 1,750 3,000 Drought Watch (L3) 1,650 2,700 Drought Warning (L4) 1,550 2,700 Drought Emergency (L5) 1,100 ‐ 1,650 2,500 ‐ 2,900

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 12

FFMP Table 2 Drought Emergency Flow Objectives

12 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Current flow objectives are designed to prevent salinity intrusion

River Mile Location Trenton Objective, CFS Montague Objective, CFS Dec. – Apr. May ‐ Aug. Sept. ‐ Nov. Dec. – Apr. May ‐ Aug. Sept. ‐ Nov. > RM 92.5

2,700 2,900 2,900 1,600 1,650 1,650

RM 87‐ 92.5

2,700 2,700 2,700 1,350 1,600 1,500

RM 82.9‐ 87

2,500 2,500 2,500 1,350 1,600 1,500

< RM 82.9

2,500 2,500 2,500 1,100 1,100 1,100

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 13

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

13 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | FFMP flow targets are designed to prevent blue from falling below red

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality changes
  • Policy changes – policies created in ‘84 to manage low flow

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 10 20 30 40 50 Apr‐64 Jun‐64 Aug‐64 Oct‐64 Dec‐64 Feb‐65 Apr‐65 Jun‐65 Aug‐65 Oct‐65 Dec‐65 Discharge, CFS Chloride, mg/L

1960s Chloride and Streamflow

PWD Chloride Trenton Chloride Trenton, CFS FFMP FLOW TARGETS

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 14

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

14 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | FFMP targets maintain flow within protective range (red)

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality changes
  • Policy changes – the ‘84 policies, now in FFMP, work well today

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 10 20 30 40 50 Apr‐16 Jun‐16Aug‐16Oct‐16Dec‐16Feb‐17Apr‐17 Jun‐17Aug‐17Oct‐17Dec‐17 Discharge, CFS Chloride, mg/L

2016‐17 Streamflow

Trenton, CFS FFMP FLOW TARGETS

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 15

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

15 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Even with working flow targets, chlorides are higher than during 1960s

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality changes
  • Policy changes – targets prevent intrusion, not ambient chl.

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 10 20 30 40 50 Apr‐16 Jun‐16Aug‐16Oct‐16Dec‐16Feb‐17Apr‐17 Jun‐17Aug‐17Oct‐17Dec‐17 Discharge, CFS Chloride, mg/L

2016‐17 Streamflow

PWD Chloride Trenton Chloride Trenton, CFS

FFMP FLOW TARGETS Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 16

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

16 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | FFMP flow targets are critical to preventing salinity intrusion

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality changes
  • Policy changes

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 10 20 30 40 50 Apr‐16Jun‐16Aug‐16Oct‐16Dec‐16Feb‐17Apr‐17Jun‐17Aug‐17Oct‐17Dec‐17 Discharge, CFS Chloride, mg/L

2016‐17 Streamflow

PWD Chloride Trenton Chloride '16‐'17 Trenton, CFS '64‐'65 Trenton, CFS FFMP FLOW TARGETS

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 17

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

17 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING

Major Takeaway #2 Current flow targets in FFMP are critical to manage intrusion of ocean salt Salinity intrusion chloride = ambient chloride + ocean salt

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 18

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

18 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Flow targets maintain salt line below a 7‐day average of River Mile 90

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality changes
  • Policy changes – current targets have worked for 35 years.

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 10 20 30 40 50 Apr‐16Jun‐16Aug‐16Oct‐16Dec‐16Feb‐17Apr‐17Jun‐17Aug‐17Oct‐17Dec‐17 Discharge, CFS Chloride, mg/L

2016‐17 Streamflow

'16‐'17 Trenton, CFS '64‐'65 Trenton, CFS FFMP FLOW TARGETS

RM 102 Nov – ‘64 RM 90 Dec‐’16

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 19

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

19 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Flow targets maintain salt line below a 7‐day average of River Mile 90

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality changes
  • Policy changes

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 River Mile

Salt Line River Mile, 1963 – 2016, 7‐day average 250 mg/L chloride

Data Source: DRBC

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 20

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

20 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Flow targets maintain salt line below a 7‐day average of River Mile 90

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality changes
  • Policy changes

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 River Mile

Salt Line River Mile, 1963 – 2016, 7‐day average 250 mg/L chloride

The current flow targets at work!

Data Source: DRBC

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 21

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

21 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING

Major Takeaway #3 Any attempt to alter current flow targets needs a carefully crafted assessment of intrusion impacts on public health and infrastructure

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 22

Why is Water Supply Planning Needed?

22 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Reducing flow targets needs to be extensively investigated

  • Climate changes
  • Ambient water quality changes
  • Policy changes
  • The flow targets work, yet they are under consideration

to be changed

Pre‐2017 FFMPs

  • Same salinity policy

since 1983 (35 yrs.)

Current FFMP

  • Flow targets anticipated

to be reduced in 5 years

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 23

FFMP 2017 Most Significant Section IV.3.b

23 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING | Reducing flow targets needs to be extensively investigated

“The studies identified in subdivision (a) above will evaluate the impacts to: the salt front, aquatic and fishery resources in the Basin, and projections of future sea level rise to salinity… If studies by the Decree Parties or external entities on behalf

  • f a Decree Party support that detachment provides

comparable protection for existing resources and uses within the Basin and does not cause significant adverse impacts, then detachment will be implemented between June 1, 2023 and May 31, 2028... “

Comparable Protection vs. Significant Adverse Impacts…

  • A burden of proof in favor of detachment

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 24

Critical Planning Baseline Observations

24 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING

  • 1. Ambient chloride concentrations today are equivalent

to the worst salinity intrusion of record in the 1960s

  • 2. Current flow targets in the FFMP are critical to

manage intrusion of ocean salt

  • 3. Any attempt to alter current flow targets needs a

carefully crafted assessment of intrusion impacts on public health and infrastructure

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 25

What Does Water Supply Planning Entail?

25 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING

Salinity Modeling

  • What streamflow regime is protective of downstream

drinking water supply given oceanic and meteorological influences

Watershed Modeling

  • What reservoir policies optimize the use of limited

water resources during drought

What Does Water Supply Planning Support?

Infrastructure Planning – PWD Water Master Plan

  • Alignment of the life cycle of infrastructure, water

quality and regulatory compliance

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 26

Water Supply Planning Team

26 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING

PWD Programs

  • Watershed Protection Program
  • Water Quality Compliance Modeling
  • Climate Change Adaptation Program
  • Bureau of Laboratory Services

Consulting Support

  • Woods Hole Group
  • CDMSmith Inc.
  • Sage Services LLC
  • SciTek Consultants Inc.
  • Tetra Tech

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 27

Salinity Focus Area

27 | WATER SUPPLY

Diverse Uses and Resources

Water Supply Drinking Industrial ‐Power ‐Refining ‐Manufacturing Ecological Fish Habitat Shellfish Habitat Wetlands

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 28

Project Scope

28 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING

What PWD is Studying How this Relates to the FFMP

Ambient water quality before and during salinity intrusion at Baxter Informs the incremental increase in chloride due to varying intensities of intrusion now and in the future Differences in salinity driven by varied Schuylkill River and Trenton streamflow Informs whether or not releases from Blue Marsh have a neutral role in salinity repulsion, and if the ‘Trenton equivalent flow’ is a valid policy concept Streamflow patterns that lead to intrusion Informs how droughts on tributaries downstream of Trenton, and managed flow at Trenton contribute to salinity repulsion Streamflow patterns that can manage intrusion Increases understanding of protective ranges

  • f streamflow, informs if increasing the flow

target given the salt line location is a valid policy concept

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 29

Project Timeline – Ongoing Work

29 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING

June 2018

  • Completion of calibration and validation

July 2018‐June 2019

  • Completion of validation report
  • Numerical experiments, post processing
  • Begin PST2 refinements, research into alternative policies

July 2019‐June 2020

  • Sea level rise salinity model set up and numerical experiments

scheduled to begin July 2020‐June 2021

  • Numerical experiments with PST and synthesis of findings

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 30

Series of Presentations

30 | WATER SUPPLY PLANNING

  • 1. Planning Introduction (today)
  • 2. Model Selection, Data Collection and Set Up
  • 3. Calibration Approach and Validation
  • 4. Simulation Approach

And much more to come!

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.

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SLIDE 31

THANK YOU!

www.phila.gov/water/sustainability CONTACT: Kelly.Anderson@phila.gov

Presented to an advisory committee of the DRBC on May 24, 2018. Contents should not be published or re‐ posted in whole or part without permission of PWD.