Project Simulation Pandemics Jonathan Thaler Department of Computer Science 1 / 33
Pandemics History 2 / 33
Pandemics History Diseases and illnesses have plagued humanity since the earliest days and are killer number one (by far)! 3 / 33
Pandemics History They have always been there but... Shift to agrarian communities ( ∼ 10,000 years ago) increased scale and spread. 4 / 33
Pandemics History They have always been there but... Shift to agrarian communities ( ∼ 10,000 years ago) increased scale and spread. Widespread trade created new opportunities for human and animal interactions that sped up such epidemics. 4 / 33
Pandemics History They have always been there but... Shift to agrarian communities ( ∼ 10,000 years ago) increased scale and spread. Widespread trade created new opportunities for human and animal interactions that sped up such epidemics. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, influenza, smallpox, and others first appeared during these early years. 4 / 33
Pandemics History They have always been there but... Shift to agrarian communities ( ∼ 10,000 years ago) increased scale and spread. Widespread trade created new opportunities for human and animal interactions that sped up such epidemics. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, influenza, smallpox, and others first appeared during these early years. The more civilized humans became - with larger cities, more exotic trade routes, and increased contact with different populations of people, animals, and ecosystems - the more likely pandemics would occur. 4 / 33
Pandemics History Antoninue Plague : 165 - 180 A.D. Cause : Believed to be either smallpox or measles Death Toll : 5 Million Began with the Huns → Germans → Romans Roman troops returning home from war against Parthia spread it throughout the Roman empire. Contributed to the end of the Pax Romana (the Roman Peace), a period from 27 B.C. to A.D. 180, when Rome was at the height of its power. After A.D. 180, instability grew throughout the Roman Empire. Christianity became increasingly popular in the time after the plague occurred. 5 / 33
Pandemics History Plague of Cyprian : 251 - 266 A.D. Cause : A second outbreak of what may have been the same disease as the Antonine Plague. Death Toll : killed 5,000 people a day in Rome. Possibly starting in Ethiopia . Passed through Northern Africa , into Rome, then onto Egypt and northward. 444 A.D., it hit Britain and obstructed defense efforts against the Picts and the Scots, causing the British to seek help from the Saxons, who would soon control the island. 6 / 33
Pandemics History Justinians Plague : 541 - 542 A.D. Cause : Yersinia pestis bacteria / rats, fleas Death Toll : 30-50 Million (estimated to be half of world population) Byzantine historian Procopius of Caesarea traced the origins of the plague to China and northeast India, via land and sea trade routes to Egypt where it entered the Byzantine Empire through Mediterranean ports. Procopius laid blame for the outbreak on the Emperor Justinian. The plague changed the course of the empire, squelching Emperor Justinian’s plans to bring the Roman Empire back together and causing massive economic struggle . Historians found that this event could have dashed Emperor Justinian’s efforts to reunite the Western and Eastern remnants of the Roman Empire, and marked the beginning of the Dark Ages . It is also credited with creating an apocalyptic atmosphere that spurred the rapid spread of Christianity . 7 / 33
Pandemics History The Black Death : 1346 - 1353 A.D. Cause : Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas Death Toll : 200 Million (estimated to be 1/3 of world population) Changed the course of Europe’s history . Labor became harder to find, bringing about better pay for workers and the end of Europe’s system of serfdom (Leibeigenschaft). Studies suggest that surviving workers had better access to meat and higher-quality bread. Lack of cheap labor may also have contributed to technological innovation . England and France were so incapacitated by the plague that the countries called a truce to their war. British feudal system collapsed when the plague changed economic circumstances and demographics. Vikings lost the strength to wage battle against native populations, and their exploration of North America halted. 8 / 33
Pandemics History American Plagues : 16th Century A.D. Cause : Smallpox and others Death Toll : killed 90% of the indigenous population in the Western Hemisphere was killed off. Helped a (small) Spanish force led by Hern´ an Cort´ es conquer the Aztec capital of Tenochtitl´ an in 1519 Another Spanish force led by Francisco Pizarro conquer the Incas in 1532. 1520, the Aztec Empire was destroyed by a smallpox infection. Research in 2019 even concluded that the deaths of some 56 million Native Americans in the 16th and 17th centuries, largely through disease, may have altered Earth’s climate as vegetation growth on previously tilled land drew more CO2 from the atmosphere and caused a cooling event. Various research concludes that Syphilis was brought from the Americas to Europe, killing many people especially during the Renaissance. 9 / 33
20th / 21st Centuries Pandemic Time Cause Death Toll Spanish Flu 1918-1919 H1N1 virus / Pigs 40-50M Asian Flu 1957-1958 H2N2 virus 1.1M Hong Kong Flu 1968-1970 H3N2 virus 1M HIV/AIDS 1981-present Virus / Chimpanzees 25-35M Swine Flu 2009-2010 H1N1 virus / Pigs 200,000 SARS 2002-2003 Coronavirus / Bats, Civets 770 Ebola 2014-2016 Ebolavirus / Wild animals 11,000 MERS 2015-Present Coronavirus / Bats, camels 850 COVID-19 2019-Present Coronavirus 851.352 (1/9/20) 10 / 33
Pandemics Today 11 / 33
Pandemics Today Plague is still occuring with the last epidemic in 2017 in Madagascar an Seychelles. 12 / 33
Pandemics Today Plague is still occuring with the last epidemic in 2017 in Madagascar an Seychelles. A 7th Cholera pandemic is ongoing since 1961 and causes 100,000 global victims each year. 12 / 33
Pandemics Today Plague is still occuring with the last epidemic in 2017 in Madagascar an Seychelles. A 7th Cholera pandemic is ongoing since 1961 and causes 100,000 global victims each year. There are 3,000,000 Leprosy patients world wide. 12 / 33
Pandemics Today Plague is still occuring with the last epidemic in 2017 in Madagascar an Seychelles. A 7th Cholera pandemic is ongoing since 1961 and causes 100,000 global victims each year. There are 3,000,000 Leprosy patients world wide. Seasonal Flu and Malaria kills about 500,000 people annually. 12 / 33
Pandemics Today Since 1980, the number of outbreaks per year has more than tripled . This has multiple reasons: 13 / 33
Pandemics Today Since 1980, the number of outbreaks per year has more than tripled . This has multiple reasons: The population on the planet has doubled over the last 50 years, leading to more susceptible people and more densely populated areas. 13 / 33
Pandemics Today Since 1980, the number of outbreaks per year has more than tripled . This has multiple reasons: The population on the planet has doubled over the last 50 years, leading to more susceptible people and more densely populated areas. There is more livestock now than over the last 10,000 years of domestication up to 1960 combined. Viruses can leap from those animals to humans . 13 / 33
Pandemics Today Since 1980, the number of outbreaks per year has more than tripled . This has multiple reasons: The population on the planet has doubled over the last 50 years, leading to more susceptible people and more densely populated areas. There is more livestock now than over the last 10,000 years of domestication up to 1960 combined. Viruses can leap from those animals to humans . The interconnected global ecnomoy helps spread new infectious diseases. 13 / 33
Pandemics Today Since 1980, the number of outbreaks per year has more than tripled . This has multiple reasons: The population on the planet has doubled over the last 50 years, leading to more susceptible people and more densely populated areas. There is more livestock now than over the last 10,000 years of domestication up to 1960 combined. Viruses can leap from those animals to humans . The interconnected global ecnomoy helps spread new infectious diseases. Human psychology with vaccine sceptisism has lead to the resurrection of long-conquered diseases like measles, leading the WHO in 2019 to name the antivaccination movement one of the world’s top 10 public-health threats. 13 / 33
COVID-19 14 / 33
COVID-19 November 17, 2019 : first reported case in China appeared in the Hubei Province but went unrecognized. 15 / 33
COVID-19 November 17, 2019 : first reported case in China appeared in the Hubei Province but went unrecognized. 30th December 2019 : Dr. Li Wenliang defied government orders and released safety information to other doctors in December. China informed WHO and charged Li with a crime. Li died from COVID-19 on 7th February 2020. 15 / 33
Recommend
More recommend
