Project Delivery Update by Mike Keever Division of Project May - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Sep 18, 2023 464 likes •697 views

Tab 47 Project Delivery Update by Mike Keever Division of Project May 2019 Management Phases of Project Development Capital Outlay Support (COS) COS Closeout Planning Program Allocation Construction PS&E (Design) Need &

SLIDE 1

Tab 47

Project Delivery Update

by Mike Keever

Division

f Project

Management

May 2019

SLIDE 2

Phases of Project Development

Capital Outlay Support (COS) COS Closeout Program Planning

PA&ED PID PS&E (Design) Construction Right of Way Programming & Allocation Allocation Allocation Need & Priority Identified Programmed PA&ED Complete Construction Complete Design Complete

Risk and Uncertainty

20% Known 80% Unknown 80% Known 20% Unknown Low High Closeout Complete

Preliminary Engineering (15¢) Construction (85¢)

SLIDE 3

Project Cost Risk Management

Supplemental Funding and Greater Than 20% Allocation Requests

95-99% of Projects Watch List

Caltrans District - Project Change Management CTC Caltrans HQ - Project Change Management

SLIDE 4

More Bidders Equals Lower Costs

Average Number of Bidders per Project

Low Bidder Above or Below Estimate

Average Number of Bidders per

vs. Number of Bidders

Project

9.0 20% 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Average Percentage Low Bidder was Above or Below Engineer’s Estimate 10% 0%

Low Bid equals Average Number of

0.0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Number of Bidders per Project

Year

(Projects Bid Opened from July 2004 to December 2017)

SLIDE 5

Data set is 476 projects awarded in the FY 17/18 FY

SLIDE 6

Bidding Environment

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Construction Cost Index ( 2002 through 2019)

Rolling 12 month Quarterly CCI Data

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 6

SLIDE 7

Bidding Environment Through April 2019

LowBid vs Engineer's Estimate (Monthly Tracking FY 18/19)

20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%

5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%

Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19

SLIDE 8

Cost Estimating Improvement Initiative

 Improved Estimating Tools

 Identification of Best Practices  Quantification of Risk  Training  Business Intelligence  Construction Cost Escalation Study

SLIDE 9

Supplemental and “Greater than 20%” Allocations

May 2019 CTC Meeting

Greater than 20% Tab # 48 Supplemental to Complete Construction Tab # 49

SLIDE 10

Thank You

Division

f Project

Management

May 2019

SLIDE 11

Bidding Environment

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Construction Cost Index ( 2002 through 2019)

2018 quarter to quarter comparison, shows more drastic changes per quarter Rolling 12 month comparison to the quarterly CCI

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 11

SLIDE 12

Supplemental and “Greater than 20%” Allocations

Supplemental to Award Supplemental PAED

Potential Items for June CTC Meeting

Greater than 20% Supplemental to Re-Advertise

SLIDE 13

Five-Year Greater Than 120% vs Awarded FYs 13/14 to 17/18

SLIDE 14

Five-Year Number of Greater Than 120% vs Awarded FYs 13/14 - 17/18

SLIDE 15

Five-Year Supplementals to Award vs Awarded FYs 13/14 to 17/18

SLIDE 16

Five-Year Number

f Supplementals

to Award vs Awarded FYs 13/14 to 17/18

SLIDE 17

Five-Year Supplementals to Complete Construction vs Construction Contracts Completed-FYs 13/14-17/18

SLIDE 18

Five-Year Number of Supplementals to Complete Construction vs Contracts Completed-FYs 13/14-17/18

SLIDE 19

Risk Management

 PIDs include Risk

 Training on Quantification of Risk  Watch List 

SLIDE 20

Bidding Environment

Construction Cost Index ( 2002 through 2018)

mpering. 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 te 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2018 quarter to quarter comparison, shows st growth in CCI. eep Rolling 12 month comparison of 2017 Q3 and 20 Don’t know if you want to have this slide… it is what was presented in January. This shows 18 Q3 shows the yearly average curve and then the 2018 2002 2014 2016 2018 quarter to quarter to show the spike. I think that the new slide covers it. I think you can delete this one.

SLIDE 21

Bidding Environment

Low Bid vs. Engineer's Estimate

10%

18/19 data through

0% 5% 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Percentage of Low Bid vs. Engineer's Estimate

October 2018 18/19 data through December 2018

Fiscal Year

Don’t know if you want to have this slide… it

is what was presented in January. Could be used to show “what we were seeing…” then show what happened). Remember this slide is the 12 monthly yearly average… the other slide is a month by month comparison. I vote