Tab 47 Project Delivery Update by Mike Keever Division of Project May 2019 Management
Phases of Project Development Capital Outlay Support (COS) COS Closeout Planning Program Allocation Construction PS&E (Design) Need & Programming Priority PA&ED PID Allocation & Allocation Identified Right of Way Programmed 20% Known High 80% Unknown Complete PA&ED Construction Complete Risk and Uncertainty Design Complete Closeout Complete 80% Known 20% Unknown Low Preliminary Engineering (15¢) Construction (85¢)
Project Cost Risk Management Supplemental Funding and Greater Than 20% CTC Allocation Requests Watch List Caltrans HQ - Project Change Management 95-99% of Projects Caltrans District - Project Change Management 3
More Bidders Equals Lower Costs Low Bidder Above or Below Estimate Average Number of Bidders per vs. Number of Bidders Project 9.0 20% Average Percentage Low Bidder was Above or Average 8.0 10% Average Number of Bidders per Project Number of 7.0 0% Below Engineer’s Estimate -10% 6.0 -20% 5.0 Low Bid -30% 4.0 equals -40% 3.0 -50% 2.0 -60% 1.0 -70% 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Number of Bidders per Project Year (Projects Bid Opened from July 2004 to December 2017) 4
Data set is 476 projects awarded in the FY 17/18 FY 5
Bidding Environment Construction Cost Index ( 2002 through 2019) 200 180 Rolling 12 month 160 Quarterly CCI Data 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 6
Bidding Environment Through April 2019 LowBid vs Engineer's Estimate (Monthly Tracking FY 18/19) 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% 7
Cost Estimating Improvement Initiative Improved Estimating Tools Identification of Best Practices Quantification of Risk Training Business Intelligence Construction Cost Escalation Study 8
Supplemental and “Greater than 20%” Allocations Greater than 20% Tab # 48 May 2019 CTC Meeting Supplemental to Complete Construction Tab # 49
Thank You Division of Project May 2019 Management
Bidding Environment Construction Cost Index ( 2002 through 2019) 200 180 2018 quarter to quarter comparison, shows more 160 drastic changes per quarter 140 120 100 80 Rolling 12 month 60 comparison to the quarterly CCI 40 20 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 11
Supplemental and “Greater than 20%” Allocations Greater than 20% Potential Items for June CTC Meeting Supplemental to Re-Advertise Supplemental to Award Supplemental PAED
Five-Year Greater Than 120% vs Awarded FYs 13/14 to 17/18 13
Five-Year Number of Greater Than 120% vs Awarded FYs 13/14 - 17/18 14
Five-Year Supplementals to Award vs Awarded FYs 13/14 to 17/18 15
Five-Year Number of Supplementals to Award vs Awarded FYs 13/14 to 17/18 16
Five-Year Supplementals to Complete Construction vs Construction Contracts Completed-FYs 13/14-17/18 17
Five-Year Number of Supplementals to Complete Construction vs Contracts Completed-FYs 13/14-17/18 18
Risk Management PIDs include Risk Training on Quantification of Risk Watch List 19
Bidding Environment Construction Cost Index ( 2002 through 2018) 200 2018 quarter to quarter 180 comparison, shows st eep growth in CCI. 160 140 120 100 Rolling 12 month 80 comparison of 2017 Q3 60 and 20 18 Q3 shows Don’t know if you want to have this slide… it te mpering. 40 is what was presented in January. This shows 20 the yearly average curve and then the 2018 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 quarter to quarter to show the spike. I think that the new slide covers it. I think you can 20 delete this one.
Bidding Environment Low Bid vs. Engineer's Estimate 10% Percentage of Low Bid vs. Engineer's Estimate 18/19 data through October 2018 5% 0% 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 -5% -10% 18/19 data through December 2018 -15% Don’t know if you want to have this slide… it is what was presented in January. Could be -20% used to show “what we were seeing…” then Fiscal Year show what happened). Remember this slide is the 12 monthly yearly average… the other 21 slide is a month by month comparison. I vote
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