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Presentation: Snow and Glacier Monitoring

Conference Paper · October 2009

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1 author: Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Risk Assessment of Moraine Dammed Glacier Lakes due to Climate Change View project Estimation and assessment of mass budget and runoff of glaciers in the Himalaya View project

• A. V. Kulkarni

Indian Institute of Science

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SNOW AND GLACIERS MONITORING ANIL V. KULKARNI

PROJECT COORDINATOR SNOW AND GLACIER PROJECT

SPACE APPLICATIONS CENTRE INDIAN SPACE RESEARCH ORGANISATION AHMEDABAD-380015, INDIA

Presented at Himalayan Chief Ministers conclave on Indian Himalaya: Glaciers climate change and livelihood 29-30 October 2009, Shimla, Himachal Pradesh

GEOMORPHOLOGY OF HIMALAYAN GLACIERS: SAMUDRA TAPU GLACIER, H.P., INDIA

Tributary glacier

Ablation area

Accumulation area Moraine Moraine-dammed lake

IRS LISS IV 26 Aug. 2008 Zanskar basin (J & K)

lake

Ablation area Accumulation area Lateral moraine Snow line Glacier boundary Tributary glacier Snout

GLACIER FEATURES

SAMUDRA TAPU GLACIER, HIMACHAL PRADESH IRS LISS IV IMAGERY SEPTEMBER 16, 2006

Year Area of Glacier (sq. km.) Cumulative Loss in Area (ha) Annual loss in area (ha/y) 1976 72.41

• 1989

72.17 24 1.8 2000 71.93 48 2.1 2006 71.83 58 1.6

RETREAT OF GLACIERS IN INDIAN HIMALAYA

10 20 30 40 50 60 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Retreat (m/y)

Parbati Sara Umaga Gangotri Dokriani Bamak Hamta Samudra Tapu Pindari

RETREAT OF PARBATI GLACIER

Dead ice zone

LISS-III and PAN1998

4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 5600 5800 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Cumulative percent area Altitude (m)

Dead ice zone

LISS-IV: 2004

4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 5600 5800 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Cumulative percent area Altitude (m)

AREA ALTITUDE DISTRIBUTION Year Area (sq. km) Loss in area (sq. km) Cumulative loss in length (m) Rate m/yr. 1990 40.14

• 1998

38.21 1.93 459 57 2000 37.73 0.48 22 11 2001 36.87 0.84 97 97 2004 130 43 2006 76 38 Loss 1990-2006 784 49

Snow line altitude at the end of ablation season Snow line altitude at the end of ablation season

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Chandra Bhaga Warwan Bhut Miyar Parbati Baspa Alaknanda Bhagarathi Gauriganga Tista

ANNUAL LOSS OF GLACIER AREA IN INDIAN HIMALAYA 1962 - 2001/4 116 111 253 189 166 90 19 126 187 60 57 Mean rate of area loss 0.39 % per year

MOUNTAIN GLACIER RETREAT IN DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE WORLD

From: Racoviteanu et al. 2008

FRAGMENTATION OF GLACIER: CHENAB BASIN

FRAGMENTATION OF GLACIERS CHENAB BASIN

(Kulkarni et al 2007)

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.2 0.32 0.86 1.4 3.5 5.6 14.3 23 57 91 360 area (km^2)

• No. of Glaciers

1962 2001

CAUSES OF FRAGMENTATION

Ice melt near Gomukh, Gangotri glacier. Less melt near Gomukh. (Source: Maruthi et.al., 2003)

3900 4000 4100 4200 4300

• 70
• 60
• 50
• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

Melt in cm Height

Glacier mass balance for 228 glaciers distributed through out the globe, Cumulative mean ice loss is 20 m w.e. out of 100 m. Disintegrating many glaciers (Zemp et al., 2009)

Fragmentation will have profound impact on glacial retreat. It effectively reduces depth, response time and accelerates retreat.

1962

2004 52H12003 52H12004

Glacial ice

GLACIERS IN PARBATI BASIN

EFFECT OF FRAGMENTATION ON RETREAT: CHENAB

Fragmentation will have profound impact on glacial

• retreat. It effectively reduces

depth, response time and accelerates retreat.

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 <1 1 to 5 5 to 10 > 10

Glacier area (sq km) Area loss from 1962-2001 (%) Influence of glacier size on retreat

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Glacier Area (sq km) Loss in area in % Per year

Chandra

• Sept. 6, 5
• Sept. 6, 5

MEAN SP. MASS BALANCE: 19 GLACIRS BASPA BASIN

2001: - 40 cm 2002: -78 cm 2004: -57 cm Loss of glacial ice: 0.11735 cu km/year

• 140
• 120
• 100
• 80
• 60
• 40
• 20

20 40 60

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Accumulation area ratio Mass balance (cm)

R = 0.89

GLACIERS ZERO AAR: BHAGA: 18 CHANDRA: 4 BASPA 4

DEVELOPMENT OF MODEL TO ESTIMATE MASS BALANCE: BASPA BASIN

(KULKARNI 1992, 2004)

CHANGES IN MASS BALANCE IN HIMALAYA

BASPA: Snowline shift 4900- 5200 m between 1976 TO 2006 AAR FROM 0.7 TO 0.3.

In the Himalaya no systematic record is available. Maximum alt. of snow line is shifted from 4800 m to 5200 m from mid 1980 to 2008. This is significantly affecting mass balance

Snow line altitude at the end of summer on Chhotha Shigri glacier

4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year of observation snow line altitude m

3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Warwan: 340 glaciers

1975-90

2000-06

3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Warwan: 340 glaciers

1975-90

2000-06

From: Shekhar et. al., 2009 CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECEPITATION IN WESTERN HIMALAYA

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1988-89 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2000-01 2003-04 2006-07

Year Precipitation (cm)

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

MODELING GLACIAL CHANGES PARBATI GLACIER

OBSERVATIONS

Arial extent of glacier in 2001 23.7 km2 Accumulation area in 2001 3.56 km2 Accumulation Area Ratio in 2001 0.138 Estimated glacial mass balance 2001

• 86 cm

Estimated depth of glacier in 2001 126 m Measured rate of melting at snout

• 6 m/year

Measured glacier length in 2001 10120 m

PREDICTIONS

Estimated response time from 2001 21 years Estimated loss in glacial length from 2001 to 2022 1461 m (69 m/y)

VALIDATION

Measured loss in glacial length from 2001 to 2006 206 m (41 m/y)

Kulkarni et al., Current Science 88(11), 2005

SNOW STUDIES

SNOW COVER MONITORING USING NDSI METHOD

DISCRIMINATION of SNOW and CLOUDs, SNOW UNDER MOUNTAIN SHADOW FCC FCC NDSI

Snow accumulation and ablation pattern in basins located in different parts of Himalaya

Ravi basin (10 Daily)

20 40 60 80 100 1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun

Date % Areal extent of Snow

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

Bhaga basin (10 Daily)

20 40 60 80 100 1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun

Date % Areal extent of Snow

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

20 40 60 80 100 1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun

Date % Areal extent of snow

year 04-05 year05-06 year 06-07

Alaknanda basin (10 Daily)

TISTA BASIN (COMPOSITE) 2004-2008 20 40 60 80 100 O N D J F M A M J MONTHS % AREAL EXTENT OF SNOW 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008

OCT DEC FEB APR JUN

Mean snow fall Western Himalaya: 2004-5: 739 cm; 2005-6: 606 cm; 2006-7: 596 cm

SNOW DEPLETION CURVE:BEAS BASIN ALTITUDE 3000-3600 m

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 85 88 90 92 Year of observations Discharge (cumecs)

5-yr running average December

INCREASE IN STREAM RUNOFF OF BASPA BASIN FOR DECEMBER BETWEEN 1966 TO 1993 IS FROM 8 TO 14 CUMECS (Kulkarni et. al. 2002 and 2003)

DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AND GLACIER MELT RUNOFF MODEL FOR MICRO AND MINI RIVER BASINS

(Kulkarni et. al. 2002)

SEASONAL SNOW AND GLACIER MELT RUNOFF MODELING (Pre-feasibility investigation, Autumn, winter, summer, Monsoon )

Q=c{a(T*G)}+c{S*W)-(M*Sw)} + (c*P*B)

Where, Q = Average seasonal runoff (cu m/s) C = Runoff coefficient a = Melt factor (cm/degree C.d) T = Average seasonal degree-day (degree.day) G = Area of snow and glaciers (sq km) S = Area of seasonal snow (sq km) W = Water equivalent of winter snow fall (m) M = Winter snow melt (m) Sw= Snow cover in winter P = Average seasonal rainfall (m) B = Basin area without snow/glacier (sq m)

Validation of snow and glacier melt runoff model: Wangar Gad basin

(Rathore and Kulkarni, 2009)

1 2 3 4 5 6 Autumn Winter Monsoon Summer Error (%)

3.4 % 4.7 % 4.1 % 4.9 %

Estimated seasonal runoff (cumecs) in Wangar Gad basin due to rise in temperature by 1oC (Rathore and Kulkarni, 2009)

5 10 15 20 25 1 2 3 4 Season Runoff (Cumec)

Autumn Winter Summer Monsoon

• 20 %
• 18 %
• 8 %
• 28 %

SALIENT OBSERVATIONS

• Retreat of 1317 glaciers 11 basins suggest 16 % loss in area from 1962.
• Mean of glacial extent reduced from 1.4 to 0.32 sq km. Number of glaciers

increased due to fragmentation but extent is reduced.

• Snow line at the end of summer changed from 4900 m to 5300 m from
• 1970. Many glaciers are without accumulation area and may experience

terminal retreat due to lack of formation of new ice.

• Large scale melting and retreat of seasonal snow was observed in basins

like Ravi throughout the winter. In high altitude basins like Baspa and Bhaga, large scale retreat was observed in beginning of winter. Snow depletion curve in Beas basin suggest early and rapid melting of snow cover.

• Average stream runoff of Baspa river in December was increased by 75

per cent from 1970.

THANKS

TERMINUS OF PARBATI GLACIER

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