Presentation on Myanmar in Transition: Implications for Indian - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presentation on ‘Myanmar in Transition: Implications for Indian Diplomacy’

Dr V.S. Seshadri 11 March 2014 at Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati

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Myanmar Factsheet

Population 60mn Area 6,76,577 sq. Km (1/5th size of India, 4½ times Bangladesh) Demography Ethnic Groups 135 in total-majority Burmans. Others Shan, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Chin, Mon and Rakhine. Religion Buddhist; 80%, Christians & Muslims; 4 to 5% each and Hindu; 2% Borders China – 2,204 Km. Thailand – 2,107 Km. India – 1643 Km. Laos – 248 Km and Bangladesh – 271 Km Administrative Divisions States (7): Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine & Shan Regions (7): Ayeyarwaddy, Bago, Magway, Mandalay, Sagaing, Tanintharyi & Yangon Natural Resources

• Vast reserves Petroleum & Natural Gas (natural gas – 283.2

Bn Cubic Meters), Gold, precious stones

• 50% forest cover

Per capita GDP US$ 760 – Presently categorized as LDC

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Independence and Military Coup

• Differences between Burman dominated majority and ethnic minorities have

long persisted but exacerbated past 1948 in the new Union.

• Shans, Kachins, Chins, Karens, Karennis, Rakhines, Mons comprising over

30% of population inhabit over 50% of the geographic area which is hilly and rings the Burmans in the plains in the form of an inverted U.

• Gen Aung San and majority of interim cabinet assassinated prior

independence.

• Resultant ethnic insurgency as well as problems from the uprising by

Communist Party of Burma and factionalism led to PM U Nu inviting military to bring order in 1958.

• Subsequent military coup by Gen Ne Win in 1962 followed by 26 years of

‘Burmese Way to Socialism

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Emergence of ASSK and Gen. Than Shwe

• 1988 – 1990. Gen Ne Win hands over and Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) who returned

to the country for tending to her mother joins political arena.

• ASSK’s National League for Democracy (NLD) sweeps 1990 elections.
• Military refuses to handover power.
• 21 year military rule with Gen Than Shwe taking over in 1992.
• ASSK under house arrest for over 15 years.
• 1988 student leaders and other opposition leaders also under house arrest.
• Host of ceasefire agreements with different ethnic groups resulting in relative

stability.

• Subsequent hopes for economic reforms or ethnic reconciliation dashed by 1997-98

financial crisis, purge of PM Khin Nyunt in 2004 and saffron Revolution 2007.

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Transition from Military Rule

• Military regime probably skeptical of sustainability in 21st
• century. Even Cambodia and Laos were seen developing faster.
• Initiates drafting of new Constitution in 2003 as part of a ‘7

Step’ roadmap to ‘Discipline flourishing Democracy’.

• Constitution approved in 2008 referendum despite ongoing

cyclone ‘Nargis’. cyclone ‘Nargis’.

• Constitution provides for continued participation of military in

governance (25% reservations)

• Elections held as per 2008 constitution in November 2010.
• New leadership handpicked by General Than Shwe as part of

the ‘6th Step’ to ensure smooth transition.

• President U Thein Sein, earlier PM of SPDC takes over as new

Presdient on 30 March 2011 and SPDC disbanded.

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Initiatives announced by New Government

• Path breaking 31 March 2011 speech by President Thein Sein: -

Good governance and clean govt. Strengthen pillars on Legislative, Executive and Judiciary fronts. Rule of Law. Respect for role of media. Ending corruption.

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On-going Reforms

Political

• Dialogue with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi – eventually led to NLD

joining political process through bye-election.

• Release of political prisoners – most released, in phases.
• Parliamentary process – Ninth sessions held so far has come a

long way with more open debate and discussion.

• Loosening of media control. Daily private newpapers from 1st

April 2013.

• Response from international community in the form of removal
• f most sanctions.

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On-going Reform

Internal Peace and Reconciliation

1.

March 2012 – President announces a three stages roadmap (a) State level ceasefire. (b) Union level dialogue to include no secession, anti drug / economic cooperation, political accommodation, constitutional amendment. (c) Agreement in Parliament. (c) Agreement in Parliament. 2. State level ceasefire agreement reached with all major groups except Kachins with whom a 7 point agreement reached but not called a ceasefire agreement. Some clashes still reported. 3. Talks progressing towards a national ceasefire agreement – Prospects brightens 4. Rohingaya issue a matter for concern. Some communal clashes have also followed. Inter faith dialogues are taking place. Issue however may need ……………………… solution.

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On-going Reform

2008 Consitutional Review

1. Joint Committee with 109 Parliament members set up to recommend proposals for constitutional reform. Report submitted on 31st January 2014. inconclusive. A 32 member implementation committee set up. 2. Possible areas of focus. (i) Amendment of Article 59(f) that bars citizens having close (i) Amendment of Article 59(f) that bars citizens having close relatives who are foreign nationals from being eligible for posts such as President, Vice- President – this will depend ASSK eligibility. (ii) 25% reservation of seats for military. (iii) More decentralisation. (iv) More autonomy for ethnic groups – demand for ‘federal Union’ and ‘federal army’.

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On-going Reform

Economic Reforms

• Privatisation of several Government owned

buildings and some factories.

• Unifying exchange rates – Kyat now on managed

float.

• Rationalisation of taxation – Incentives for exports.
• Enacting of Foreign Investment Law.
• Clearing of some external debt – has enabled

Myanmar to receive ADB / World Bank assistance.

• Autonomy for Central Bank.
• Moves for Telecom, Port, Airport modernisation.
• SEZs at Thillawa, Dawei and Kyaukphyu.

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On-going Reforms

Economic

2011-12 to 2015-16: 5 Year Plan

• 7.7% annual increase in GDP.
• 1.7 total increase in per capita GDP
• Reducing share of agriculture in GDP from 36.4% to

29.2%

• Increase manufacturing from 26% to 32% and

Services from 37.6% to 38.7%

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On-going Reforms

Constraints

(i) Culture of decision making still remains very centralised without sufficient delegation. (ii) Some friction between Parliament and the Executive – constructive tension? Executive – constructive tension? (iii) Severe lack of expertise and skills and institutional capacities. (iv) Case for greater decentralisation of powers to regions and states. (v) Absence of adequate infrastructure.

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2015 Elections

• Political parties already strategising.
• Ethnic parties have also formed Federal

Union party. Union party.

• Will NLD win a majority?
• USDP

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India-Myanmar Bilateral Relations

Key determinants

A 1643 kilometer long and porous border as well as maritime boundary. Strong Historic, Cultural, Religious links. Myanmar gateway to South East Asia, Both are also members of BCIM and BIMSTEC. members of BCIM and BIMSTEC. Strategic location from security perspective. Insurgents from our militant groups tend to take shelter across border. Constructive engagement over last two decades – several development cooperation programmes. Sizable people of Indian origin.

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Myanmar’s External Relations

• New government has reached out to tall countries to

make friends.

• Many more Foreign embassies in Myanmar.
• Many offering technical and financial assistance –

economic opportunities a draw. economic opportunities a draw.

• ASEAN Chair this year.
• China continues to play significant part although

entry of others has diminished preponderance.

• Myanmar striving steadily to become part of

international mainstream.

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Strengthening of Relations under New Government

High level Visits – Increased Frequency

• President U Thein Sein visited India in October 2011 and December

2012.

• PM Manmohan Singh visited Myanmar in May 2012 (after 25 years by

another PM) and 3-5 March 2014 for BIMSTEC Summit.

• Myanmar Lower House peaker Thura U Shwe Mann led a delegation in
• Myanmar Lower House peaker Thura U Shwe Mann led a delegation in

December 2011, Upper House Speaker in December 2013 and our own Speaker Smt. Meera Kumar in February 2013.

• Visits by Foreign Ministers from both sides.
• Daw Aung San Suu Kyi visited in November 2012
• Myanmar Human Rights Commission delegation in May 2012.
• Myanmar Chief of Armed forces Vice Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

visited in August 2012 and all our service chiefs have visited as well. Raksha Mantri in January 2013.

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Development Cooperation Initiatives

Upto 2011 Kaladan Multimodal Transport project – began in December 2010. Various Capacity Building Programmes, including setting up four training institutions in IT, entrepreneurship development, English Language and Industrial Training. and Industrial Training. 250 fellowship under ITEC / Colombo Plan annually. Extension of concessionary loans for several projects including revamping refinery, truck assembly etc. Tamu-Kalay/Kalewa Friendship Road construction. Restoration of Ananda Temple in Bagan

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Development Cooperation initiatives with New Government

12 MOUs signed during PM Manmohan Singh’s visit. Extension of new line of credit for US$500 million. Announcement regarding construction of Kalewa – Yargyi (120 km) segment of India Myanmar-Thailand- Trilateral highway. Repair of bridges on Tamu/Kalay-Kalewa segment Advanced Centre for Agricultural Research and Education and Rice Bio Park at Yezin. Grant of US$10 million worth of agricultural machinery

(Contd.)

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Development Cooperation initiatives with New Government (Contd.)

Myanmar Institute of Information Technology in Mandalay. Border Region Development Programme – Chin State and Naga Self Administered Zone. Chin State and Naga Self Administered Zone. – US$ 5 million each year for 5 years. Increase in the number of ITEC / Colombo Plan fellowships to 500. Establishment of a new Industrial Training Centre at Myingyan. MOU signed for Rhi-Tiddim Road.

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Specific Training Programmes supportive of Myanmar’s reforms

Orientation programme for 40 MPs and 40 Parliament staff, in batches, of one week duration each, in Indian Bureau of parliamentary studies. Special 2-week training programmes and exposure for three batches of Myanmar journalists of 30 each. A seminar on our experiences in Planning and Poverty A seminar on our experiences in Planning and Poverty Alleviation – Shri Montek Singh Ahluwalia and Dr. Isher Ahluwalia. A seminar on Disinvestment and Privatisation of publicly

• wned companies conducted by CII.

A 2 week training programme for 20 MBA students of Mandalay University in the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore – now becoming an annual affair.

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India-Myanmar Trade

(Values in US$ Millions) (source: Ministry of Commerce, New Delhi)

Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 April-June India’s exports to Myanmar 207.97 (6.17%) 320.62 (54.17%) 545.38 (70.1%) 544.66 121.32 Myanmar India’s imports from Myanmar 1,289.80 (38.84%) 1,017.67 (-21.1%) 1,324.82 (30.18%) 1412.69 (6.6% 394.82 TOTAL TRADE 1,497.77 (30.17%) 1,338.29 (-10.65%) 1,870.20 (39.75%) 1957.35 516.14

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India-Myanmar Trade and Economic Relations

Factors that can boost trade

1. Direct shipping connectivity. 2. Easier payment arrangements and concessionary financing. 3. Expand trade via land border through conducive 3. Expand trade via land border through conducive facilitation – early setting up of the Integrated Customs Post at Moreh. 4. More trade promotional activities. 5. Indian companies to make more investments in Myanmar. 6. India of course extends duty free treatment for LDCs including Myanmar.

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India-Myanmar Economic Relations

1. Some On-going Projects: (a) Implementation by M/s Punj Lloyd of the first phase of oil/gas pipeline from Kyaukphyu-Kunming. (b) Offshore platform development by M/s Larsen and Toubro for Zawtika project. (c) Essar Construction in the Kaladan project. 2. ONGC/Gail investment in A1 – A3 gas blocks and investment in 2. ONGC/Gail investment in A1 – A3 gas blocks and investment in China-Myanmar Gas pipelines. 3. Jubilant Energy awarded PSC-I onshore block for exploration. 4. Several Indian companies in fray for onshore/offshore blocks and

• ther major investment opportunities.

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India-Myanmar Relations

Outlook for future

Strong political will present on both sides to strengthen relations. relations. As Myanmar marches towards democratic governance there are several areas for the two countries to work together. Bringing to fruition Projects like Trilateral Connectivity and more people to people ties will make big difference. By 2017-18 connectivity would get a boost. Important to transform these into development corridors

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Thank you

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