Preparation of scenarios Function on workshop: Illustrate potential - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Oct 24, 2022 293 likes •419 views

Preparation of scenarios Function on workshop: Illustrate potential consequences and conflicts different possible futures Frame and stimulate debate among participant Only a starting point for the participant, who are going to

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The Danish Board of Technology

Preparation of scenarios

Function on workshop:

 Illustrate potential consequences and conflicts –

different possible futures

 Frame and stimulate debate among participant  Only a starting point for the participant, who are

going to develop their own visions for the future

 Represent different priorities and sets of value  Must be plausible

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The Danish Board of Technology

Preparation of scenarios

How and how many?

 3 or 4 is ideal. Less offers too little variety. More

causes confusion

 Journalistic products with scientific filter:

Journalist is hired to do the writing. Experts give input and control the plausibility and balance

 Based on research in local community  2-3 pages each – given to participants before

the workshop

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The Danish Board of Technology

4 scenarios from Næstved

 Technical solutions and physical

consequences

 Group work: Identify possible

consequences for various interest groups in the area

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The Danish Board of Technology

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The Danish Board of Technology

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The Danish Board of Technology

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The Danish Board of Technology

Looking 100 years ahead

Scenario 1. “Do nothing scenario” – No action taken  Loss of natural wetlands  Loss of holiday cottages and other

properties

 Loss of farmland  Loss of tourist centre on Enø Island  Beach erosion

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The Danish Board of Technology

Looking 100 years ahead

Scenario 2. “Holiday cottage scenario” – Protection with dikes of Enø Island  Beach and properties secured  Dike building is costly (Who should pay?)  View of the ocean blocked for low-lying

holiday cottages

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The Danish Board of Technology

Looking 100 years ahead

Scenario 3. “Nature preservation scenario” – Turning the area into a National Park

 Letting wetlands move inland at the cost of farm

land

 Letting the ocean flood the currently drained

and cultivated bog “Nylandsmosen”

 Beach erosion  Loss of holiday cottages and other properties  Loss of tourist centre on Enø Island

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The Danish Board of Technology

Looking 100 years ahead

Scenario 4. “Grand dike scenario” – Protecting the inlet “Karrebæk Fjord” with a dike and a sluice to regulate the water level:  Protection of farm land  Protection of holiday cottages and other

properties

 Protection of tourist centre on Enø Island  Loss of natural wetlands

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The Danish Board of Technology

Group work

  How are the technical solutions presented in

the different scenarios going to affect the various stakeholders present at the workshop?

 What kind of conflicts could this result in? 

One scenario for each group



Presentations from each group

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The Danish Board of Technology

Some of the stakeholders

 Local and regional politicians  Technicians  Farmers  House owners’ associations  Summer cottage owners  Nature conservancy associations  Tourist and Business associations  Hunters, fishermen, bird watchers and more