PRE PRESE SENT NTATION TION FOR THE 12 MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

pre prese sent ntation tion
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

PRE PRESE SENT NTATION TION FOR THE 12 MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AN ANNU NUAL AL RESUL RESULTS TS PRE PRESE SENT NTATION TION FOR THE 12 MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2017 AGENDA Business Overview Page 3 Industry Trends Page 20 The Period in Perspective Page 28 Financial


slide-1
SLIDE 1

AN ANNU NUAL AL RESUL RESULTS TS PRE PRESE SENT NTATION TION

FOR THE 12 MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2017

slide-2
SLIDE 2
  • Business Overview – Page 3
  • Industry Trends – Page 20
  • The Period in Perspective – Page 28
  • Financial Overview – Page 30
  • Industry Matters – Page 41
  • Outlook – Page 43
  • Additional Information – Page 46

AGENDA

2

slide-3
SLIDE 3

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

slide-4
SLIDE 4

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

  • A year of two distinct halves impacted by both feed

input costs and poultry selling prices

  • The year under review includes a number of factors

that distort year-on-year comparisons and trends

  • Operational realignment and specialised focus

has contributed positively to the group’s results

4

slide-5
SLIDE 5

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

  • Revenue
  • Profit before interest and tax
  • Earnings per share
  • Headline earnings per share

97%

Key ey Fin Finan ancia cial l Ind Indica icator tors

102% 97%

5

3%

slide-6
SLIDE 6

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

6

Poultry

  • Sales volumes down (brine)
  • Planned production cutbacks
  • Average sales realisations up
  • Feeding cost decreased
  • Bird performance improvement
  • HPAI (bird flu) negative impact

Feed

  • Sales volumes down
  • General market contraction
  • Lower internal feed required
  • Old / New season crop swing
  • Maize price disparity
  • Rand per ton net margin down

Other Africa

  • Improved profitability – better performance from all three countries
slide-7
SLIDE 7

“ ”

slide-8
SLIDE 8

POULTRY DIVISION - OVERVIEW

Operating profit - R million

  • Operating profit up
  • Selling price contribution
  • Net margin 6.4% F2016: 0.5%

Revenue - R million

  • Revenue up 7.9%
  • Broiler sales volumes down 8.6%
  • Broiler sales realisations up 20.6%

9,129 9,850

  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 F2016 F2017 59 630

  • 100

200 300 400 500 600 700 F2016 F2017 8

slide-9
SLIDE 9

POULTRY DIVISION - OVERVIEW

  • Broiler sales volumes decreased by 8.6% (≈ 41 000 tons) mainly due to the new

brine legislation and planned broiler production cutbacks of 3 million birds

  • Broiler sales realisations increase impacted by a shift in the product offering due

to the brine impact and the recovery of inflationary cost contributors

  • IQF sales realisations were higher as the lower priced 30% IQF was discontinued

and replaced with 15% brined IQF at a higher cost

  • Broiler feed prices increased year-on-year by 3.3%, due to an enhanced feeding

programme, despite lower raw material costs in the latter half of the year

  • Improved broiler production efficiencies – FCR improvements on new feeding

programme more than offset the increased feed price

  • Highly pathogenic avian influenza – biological stock write-off of R54 million

9

slide-10
SLIDE 10

POULTRY DIVISION - OVERVIEW

49% 4% 4% 14% 7% 22% F2017 436 694Tons

Volume decrease ≈ 8.6%

53% 3% 5% 13% 5% 21% F2016 478 019Tons

Product Mix

10 10

slide-11
SLIDE 11

BROILER PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE

75.0% 80.0% 85.0% 90.0% 95.0% 100.0% 105.0% 110.0% 115.0% 120.0% F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017

Mortality Feed conversion (FCR) Efficiency factor (PEF)

Key indicators base-lined to 100% in F2012 11 11

slide-12
SLIDE 12

BROILER PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE

94% 96% 98% 100% 102% 104% 106% F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017

Slaughter age Live weight Average daily gain

12 12 Key indicators base-lined to 100% in F2012

slide-13
SLIDE 13

BROILER PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE

13 13 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125% 130% 135% 140% F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017

Broiler feed price index Feed conversion efficiency index Feeding cost index

Key indicators base-lined to 100% in F2012

Source: Own Data

slide-14
SLIDE 14

“ ”

slide-15
SLIDE 15

FEED DIVISION - OVERVIEW

Operating profit - R million

  • Operating profit down 19.3%
  • Net margin 5.9% F2016: 6.7%
  • Difficult trading conditions

Revenue - R million

  • Revenue down 8.4%
  • Sales volumes down 4.8%
  • Average selling prices down 3%

7,190 6,583

  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 F2016 F2017 485 391

  • 100

200 300 400 500 F2016 F2017 15 15

slide-16
SLIDE 16

FEED DIVISION - OVERVIEW

  • Feed volumes decreased due to lower internal feed requirements and lower

external feed sales

  • Competitive intensity in the commercial feed market on surplus capacity available

in the industry

  • Record high feed prices in first half of F2017 on back of raw material positions

due to limited procurement opportunities on worst maize crop in 2016 (7,7 million tons – “price disparity”)

  • Record high maize crop in 2017 resulted in a significant drop in animal feed prices

in the second half of F2017 (16,7 million tons)

  • Total expenses were well contained however the lower volumes negatively

impacted margin contribution

16 16

slide-17
SLIDE 17

FEED DIVISION - SALES

60% 6% 20% 14%

Meadow Feeds - Sales Mix

60% 6% 21% 13% F2016 1 396 301Tons F2017 1 329 771 Tons

Volume decrease ≈ 4.8%

17 17

slide-18
SLIDE 18

“ ”

slide-19
SLIDE 19

OTHER AFRICA DIVISION - OVERVIEW

Operating profit - R million

  • Operating profit up
  • Net margin 6.3% F2016: 1%
  • Zambia feed mill good performance

Revenue - R million

  • Revenue down 17.2%
  • Sales volumes down 12.7%
  • Average selling prices down 6.3%

515 427

  • 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 F2016 F2017 5 27

  • 5

10 15 20 25 F2016 F2017 19 19

slide-20
SLIDE 20

INDUSTRY TRENDS

slide-21
SLIDE 21

SAFEX YELLOW MAIZE PRICE

Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers

21 21

slide-22
SLIDE 22

SAFEX YELLOW MAIZE PRICE vs. CBOT IN RAND TERMS

Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers

22 22

slide-23
SLIDE 23

SAFEX SOYA BEANS PRICE

Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers

23 23

slide-24
SLIDE 24
  • 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17

Total poultry imports 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Total poultry imports)

POULTRY IMPORTS PER MONTH

Tons

Source: SAPA

24 24

slide-25
SLIDE 25

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 170% Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17

Broiler selling price index Six month average

BROILER SELLING PRICES

Index (Rand per kg)

Source: Own Data

IQF cost recovery on new legislated brine levels

25 25

slide-26
SLIDE 26

BROILER PRICE vs. FOOD PRICE INFLATION

Source: Own Data & CJA Strategic Risk Brokers

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17

Broiler selling price index SA food price index

26 26

IQF cost recovery on new legislated brine levels

slide-27
SLIDE 27

CHANGE IN BROILER PRICE vs. FEED PRICE

Source: Own Data

  • 25%
  • 15%
  • 5%

5% 15% 25% 35%

Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17

% Change in feed price % Change in broiler selling price

27 27

slide-28
SLIDE 28

THE PERIOD IN PERSPECTIVE

slide-29
SLIDE 29

549 1,079

  • 200

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 PBIT F2016 Poultry Sales Volumes Price Adjustment Brine Sales Realisations Feeding Cost External Feed Sales HPAI Biological Stock Profit on Sale of Investment Other PBIT F2017

THE PERIOD IN PERSPECTIVE

  • PBIT reconciliation
  • 718

199 689

*9.7%

752

*10.9%

  • 54

31

  • 303
  • 67

(R million)

29 29

*20.6%

* Increase in sales realisations

slide-30
SLIDE 30

FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

slide-31
SLIDE 31

ABRIDGED STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME

Year ended 30 September 2017 R million 2016 R million Revenue 12 351 11 954 Operating profit 1 048 549 Operating profit margin 8.5% 4.6% Profit on sale of investment 31

  • Profit before interest and tax

1 079 549 PBIT margin 8.7% 4.6% Net finance costs (15) (22) Share of profit in associates

  • (1)

Profit before tax 1 064 526 Tax (309) (154) Profit for the period 755 372 Headline earnings 735 373 EPS – Cents 1 948 964 HEPS – Cents 1 899 965

3% 91% 102% 103% 102% 97%

% change

31 31

97%

slide-32
SLIDE 32

1.3 1.7 2.2 2.3 3.3 3.6 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.8 6.0 7.0 8.7 9.1 9.9 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.5 5.1 4.0 3.6 3.5 4.3 4.9 5.5 6.2 7.2 6.6 2.8 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.8 5.2 6.3 6.9 7.4 7.0 7.2 8.2 8.5 9.6 11.3 12.0 12.4

0.000 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Poultry Feed Other Africa External revenue

GROUP ANNUAL REVENUE

(R billion)

32 32

slide-33
SLIDE 33

124 90 174 238 383 494 476 163 282 262 353 137

  • 112

104 661 59 630 79 130 153 151 214 272 333 385 261 281 282 289 329 354 423 485 391 203 220 328 389 597 766 809 548 581 585 674 477 262 493 1101 549 1079 7.3% 5.9% 8.3% 9.6% 12.3% 14.8% 12.8% 6.7% 6.6% 8.4% 9.3% 5.8% 3.1% 5.1% 9.8% 4.6% 8.7%

0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16
  • 120
80 280 480 680 880 1080

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Poultry Feed Other Africa Profit on Sale of Investment

GROUP ANNUAL OPERATING PROFIT

(R million)

33 33

slide-34
SLIDE 34

140

  • 3
  • 117

5 45 59 351 310 194

  • 135

22 608 154 135 156 173 157 197 186 237 233 252 184 207 324 153 59 203 213 280 550 551 429 120 212 867

  • 0.1
0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9
  • 120
80 280 480 680 880 1080 1280

1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17

Poultry Feed Other Africa Change in feed price Change in poultry selling price

GROUP SIX MONTHLY OPERATING PROFIT

(R million)

34 34

slide-35
SLIDE 35

35 35

September 2017 R million September 2016 R million % change Non-current assets 2 228 2 230 Assets held for sale

  • 25

Net working capital 862 1 003 Current assets (excl. cash) 2 461 2 588 Current liabilities (excl. borrowings) (1 599) (1 585) Non-current liabilities (excl. borrowings) (610) (646) Net assets 2 480 2 612 Net debt / (Surplus cash) (553) 240

  • Loans
  • 35
  • Cash and cash equivalents

(553) 205 Equity 3 033 2 372 Total 2 480 2 612

ABRIDGED BALANCE SHEET

14% 5% 1% 6% 5% 5%

slide-36
SLIDE 36

WORKING CAPITAL

For the twelve months ended 30 September 2017 R million 2016 R million Variance R million Current assets 2 461 2 588 (127) Biological assets 658 735 (77) Inventory - Poultry 316 314 2

  • Feed

185 362 (177)

  • Other Africa

50 41 9 Trade receivables 1049 998 51 Receivables – investment sold 56

  • 56

Other receivables 147 138 9 Current liabilities (1 599) (1 585) (14) Trade payables (1 151) (1 390) 239 Other payables (448) (195) (253) Net working capital 862 1 003 (141)

36 36

slide-37
SLIDE 37

ABRIDGED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW

For the twelve months ended 30 September 2017 R million 2016 R million Cash operating profit 1 428 546 Working capital movement (63) (46) 1 365 500 Tax paid (310) (122) Net interest paid (11) (22) Capital expenditure (180) (174) 864 182 Dividends paid (108) (373) Government grant received 29

  • Other cash flow items

7 10 Loans (repaid) / received (35) (49) Movement in cash equivalents 757 (230) Effect of exchange rate changes 1 (1) Opening balance (205) 26 Closing balance 553 (205)

37 37

slide-38
SLIDE 38

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Twelve months ended 30 September 2017 R million 2016 R million Depreciation 149 144 Total capex 180 174 Commitments 148 105 Total spend and committed 328 279

38 38

slide-39
SLIDE 39

272 326 487 631 958 1286 1381 840 890 960 1148 787 434 864 2016 965 1899 90 108 168 230 380 585 700 700 700 760 810 656 222 440 1150 490 1055

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

F2001 F2002 F2003 F2004 F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017

Headline earnings per share Dividend per share

HEADLINE EARNINGS & DIVIDEND PER SHARE

(cents per share)

39 39

slide-40
SLIDE 40

IN SUMMARY

  • Recovery in Profits in 2H2017 with profit margin at 13.2% (1H2017: 3.7%)
  • Positive cash flow accelerates in 2H2017 (R703 million)
  • Net surplus cash at year-end (R553 million)
  • Final dividend of 875 cps within the Group’s liquidity capability
  • Full year dividend of 1 055 cps at 1.8 times cover

40 40

slide-41
SLIDE 41

INDUSTRY MATTERS

slide-42
SLIDE 42

INDUSTRY MATTERS

  • Poultry imports – Page 63
  • Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) – Page 64
  • Industry consolidation – Page 65

42 42

slide-43
SLIDE 43

OUTLOOK

slide-44
SLIDE 44

OUTLOOK

44 44

  • The negative political landscape and policy uncertainty has contributed to a weak

economic environment that could lead to a further downgrade by the credit rating agencies. Record unemployment levels and lower levels of disposable income are unlikely to improve due to a poor economic outlook for the foreseeable future.

  • Continued high level of poultry imports with weak tariff protection, has allowed foreign

produced poultry to become further entrenched in the local market leading to a contraction in production amongst South African producers.

  • On a positive note and key to local protein production, both global and local coarse grains

(maize and soybeans) exhibit healthy stock-to-use ratios. Current consensus points towards the promise of another year where at least average local grain production is predicted.

  • Numerous supply constraints influenced by the past drought, production cutbacks and the

devastating bird flu could result in further inflation in the food basket.

  • Further unlocking the inherent genetic potential of the Ross broiler breed through
  • ptimised broiler nutrition, and the cementing of Astral’s best cost strategy.
  • The threat of further spread of the highly pathogenic bird flu virus (H5N8) is a major

contributor towards uncertainty around the sustainability of certain sectors of the local poultry

  • industry. The role of vaccination of high value breeding stock as a preventative measure,

together with the concept of compensation for losses incurred is paramount to managing this highly virulent avian disease.

slide-45
SLIDE 45

“ ”

slide-46
SLIDE 46

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

slide-47
SLIDE 47

WHAT WE SAID IN MAY 2017

  • The weakened state of consumer spending is unlikely to improve due to poor

economic growth and higher unemployment.

  • The current safeguard duty recommended by ITAC against the EU is not

expected to significantly curb poultry import levels (March 2017 USA spike).

  • The new brining regulations will continue to negatively impact total kilograms

sold at the revised brining level of 15% on IQF product.

  • The risk of permanent power cuts by Eskom to Astral’s operations in

Standerton has been negated through an order of the High Court.

  • Record local maize crop is expected for the current harvest season at

14,5 million tons which historically is the largest change in the crop size year-

  • n-year (2016: 7,7 million tons).
  • Poultry production efficiencies are expected to remain intact on the back of

superior nutrition optimising the genetic potential of the Ross 308 breed.

47 47

     

slide-48
SLIDE 48

KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS

37 36 48 48 51 65 55 31 31 30 34 23 12 20 41 19

36

31 33 39 39 46 49 45 25 26 26 29 21 13 19 36 16

28

8.9 7.5 10.0 11.4 13.9 16.5 14.5 9.3 9.3 9.9 11.0 7.4 4.5 6.5 11.1 5.8

9.9

7.3 5.9 8.3 9.6 12.3 14.8 12.8 8.0 7.8 8.4 9.3 5.8 3.1 5.1 9.8 4.6

8.7

5.5 5.5 6.1 4.7 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.8 3.6 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.1

4.1

  • 5.0

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17

RONA ROE EBITDA margin PBIT margin Asset turn

48 48

slide-49
SLIDE 49

KEY FINANCIAL INDICATORS

8.53 10.79 14.34 17.36 23.83 28.28 33.47 34.24 35.38 37.43 41.36 41.65 44.16 49.95 61.05 61.07

78.00 23 20 21 29 17 9 19 12 15 11 10 16 21 18 24 34 24 26 22 21 12 14 14 9 3 7 15 9 2 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17

NAV share Working capital days Net Debt / Equity

49 49

slide-50
SLIDE 50

119 142 168 233 234 200 196 169 11.9% 14.80% 15.60% 21.50% 21.50% 16.30% 16.10% 17.07%

11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019F

End stock STU

WORLD CORN ENDING STOCKS vs. STU

Million Tons

Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers

50 50

slide-51
SLIDE 51

SOUTH AFRICA – TOTAL MAIZE SUPPLY & DEMAND

Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18E 2018/19F Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Estimate Forecast Carry In (1 May) 991 1,414 589 2,074 2,471 1,093 3,446 Crop Estimate 12,121 11,811 14,250 9,955 7,779 16,744 12,751 Retentions 433 163 309 837 638 Sagis Delivery 11,972 11,072 13,817 9,794 7,469 15,907 12,114 Minus early deliveries 450 Imports 11 80 65 1,964 2,237 Total Supply 12,973 12,566 14,471 13,831 11,727 17,000 15,559 Domestic Usage Food 4,499 4,583 4,840 4,698 4,808 4,872 4,908 Domestic Usage Feed 4,378 4,715 5,041 5,520 5,004 5,399 5,220 Gristing, withdrawn & released 674 480 376 293 278 358 343 Total Domestic Usage 9,551 9,777 10,257 10,512 10,090 10,630 10,471 Exports & Sundries 2,008 2,122 2,153 848 993 2,925 2,477 Plus early deliveries 450 Carry Out (30 Apr) 1,414 590 2,062 2,471 1,093 3,446 2,611 No of days usage 54 25 73 86 40 118 91 STU 12.23% 4.96% 16.62% 21.75% 9.87% 25.42% 20.16%

Marketing year (May to April) '000 tons 51 51

slide-52
SLIDE 52

12.23% 4.96% 16.62% 21.75% 9.87% 25.42% 20.16%

  • 4%

1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18E 2018/19F

Carry out Maize stock to use ratio

RSA MAIZE CARRY OUT & STOCK TO USE RATIO

Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers

‘000 Tons 52 52

slide-53
SLIDE 53

EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION - FORECAST

Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) – Columbia University

53 53

slide-54
SLIDE 54

SOUTHERN AFRICA – VEGETATION HEALTH INDEX VHI of previous year VHI of current year

Source: NOAA - National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (VHI)

54 54

slide-55
SLIDE 55

BROILER FEED – INGREDIENT INCLUSION & COST CONTRIBUTION

Source: Own Data

64.9 40.0 66.2 42.7 65.0 45.7 63.3 43.6 61.4 39.6 61.1 38.0

16.5 25.0 14.7 20.4 11.4 14.9 15.6 20.3 16.8 22.3 14.0 18.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.5 9.1 8.6 6.4 5.6 6.9 5.4 6.2 4.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.2 0.5 1.7 0.4 1.5 4.3 6.8 4.8 7.1 7.5 10.3 7.3 10.3 6.6 9.1 9.9 13.8 0.3 4.2 0.4 6.2 0.3 4.7 0.3 5.0 0.4 4.7 0.5 5.4 6.2 15.6 6.1 14.9 6.4 14.9 6.7 14.0 7.3 17.2 7.8 18.8

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1H15 Incl. 1H15 Contr. 2H15 Incl. 2H15 Contr. 1H16 Incl. 1H16 Contr. 2H16 Incl. 2H16 Contr. 1H17 Incl. 1H17 Contr. 2H17 Incl. 2H17 Contr. Maize Soybean Meal Sunflower Meal Fish Meal F/Fat and Extr Soy Vitamins, Minerals and Medication. Other 55 55

slide-56
SLIDE 56

BRAZIL, EU & USA PRODUCT COST BENCHMARK

Source: Own Estimates

Ex BRAZIL – November 2017 FROZEN LEG QUARTERS BULK PACKED CIF DBN US$ per ton TON 1 150.00 1 150.00 1 150.00 SA COST R/$ exchange rate R$ 13.80 14.00 14.30 Rand per ton TON 15 870.00 16 100.00 16 445.00 22 640.00 Rand per kg KG 15.87 16.10 16.45 22.64 Duty per kg KG 37% 37% 37%

  • Clearance costs

KG 0.65 0.65 0.65

  • COST INTO STORAGE

KG 22.39 22.71 23.18 22.64 Storage KG 0.50 0.50 0.50

  • Distribution

KG 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.95 Marketing, Administration, Finance KG 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.89 TOTAL COST KG 24.39 24.71 25.18 24.48 EUROPE Ex NETHERLANDS – November 2017 FROZEN LEG QUARTERS BULK PACKED CIF DBN € per ton TON SA COST € exchange rate R$ Rand per ton TON 22 640.00 Rand per kg KG 22.64 Duty per kg KG

  • Clearance costs

KG

  • COST INTO STORAGE

KG 22.64 Storage KG

  • Distribution

KG 0.95 Marketing, Administration, Finance KG 0.89 TOTAL COST KG 24.48 56 56

slide-57
SLIDE 57

BRAZIL, EU & USA PRODUCT COST BENCHMARK

Source: Own Estimates

EUROPE Ex Belgium, Denmark with Safeguard Duty @ 0% – November 2017 (Safeguard Duty expired on 3 July 2017) FROZEN LEG QUARTERS BULK PACKED CIF DBN € per ton TON 1 400.00 1 400.00 1 400.00 SA COST R/€ exchange rate R$ 16.30 16.50 16.80 Rand per ton TON 22 820.00 23 100.00 25 320.00 22 640.00 Rand per kg KG 22.82 23.10 23.52 22.64 Duty per kg KG 0% 0% 0%

  • Clearance costs

KG 0.65 0.65 0.65

  • COST INTO STORAGE

KG 23.47 23.75 24.17 22.64 Storage KG 0.50 0.50 0.50

  • Distribution

KG 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.95 Marketing, Administration, Finance KG 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.89 TOTAL COST KG 25.47 25.75 26.17 24.48 Ex USA – November 2017 FROZEN LEG QUARTERS BULK PACKED CIF DBN US$ per ton TON 900.00 900.00 900.00 SA COST R/$ exchange rate R$ 13.80 14.00 14.30 Rand per ton TON 12 420.00 12 600.00 12 870.00 22 640.00 Rand per kg KG 12.42 12.60 12.87 22.64 Duty per kg KG 37.00% 37.00% 37.00%

  • Clearance costs

KG 0.65 0.65 0.65

  • COST INTO STORAGE

KG 17.67 17.91 18.28 22.64 Storage KG 0.50 0.50 0.50

  • Distribution

KG 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.95 Marketing, Administration, Finance KG 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.89 TOTAL COST KG 19.67 19.91 20.28 24.48 57 57

slide-58
SLIDE 58

LOCAL BROILER PRODUCTION & MARKET SHARE

Local broiler production ≈ 18.5 million birds per week

Source: Own Estimates

27% 22% 8% 7% 7% 29% Astral RCL Country Bird Daybreak Sovereign Other

58 58

slide-59
SLIDE 59

LOCAL BROILER PRODUCTION & MARKET SHARE

Source: Own Estimates

  • Avg. poultry imports ≈ 8,2 million birds per week (12 months ending September 2017)

19% 15% 6% 5% 4% 20% 31% Astral RCL Country Bird Daybreak Sovereign Other Imports

59 59

slide-60
SLIDE 60

TOTAL POULTRY IMPORTS (CHICKEN, TURKEY

, MDM)

F2016 37,789 45,469 43,608 38,736 34,859 57,673 48,251 54,514 54,048 45,151 42,040 49,071 F2017 50,324 50,955 34,533 37,375 39,212 65,658 41,876 47,173 42,451 44,424 45,971 51,915 % Var 33.2 12.1

  • 20.8
  • 3.5

12.5 13.8

  • 13.2
  • 13.5
  • 21.5
  • 1.6

9.4 5.8 bpw* 8,9 9,1 6,1 6,6 7,0 11,7 7,4 8,4 7,5 7,9 8,2 9,2

*bpw ≈ million birds per week

Source: SAPA

Tons

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep F2014 28,250 66,647 99,050 124,194 148,092 179,811 216,947 253,490 294,102 320,603 346,582 383,710 F2015 42,363 81,170 108,674 137,660 168,965 209,337 247,672 285,532 327,180 375,717 417,427 460,255 F2016 37,789 83,258 126,866 165,602 200,461 258,134 306,385 360,899 414,947 460,098 502,138 551,209 F2017 50,324 101,279 135,812 173,187 212,399 278,057 319,933 367,106 409,557 453,981 499,952 551,867

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017

60 60

slide-61
SLIDE 61

TOTAL POULTRY IMPORTS – COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

Source: SAPA Brazil 41.7% EU 48.1% Argentina 3.3% US 4.7% Other 2.1%

Country of origin for poultry imports - 2016

Brazil 58.8% EU 15.7% Argentina 5.3% US 15.9% Other 4.3%

Country of origin for poultry imports - September 2017 YTD 560 155 tons 416 055 tons

61 61

slide-62
SLIDE 62

TOTAL POULTRY IMPORTS – COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

Source: SAPA

62 62

Country Imports (tons) 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD Brazil 168 666 241 180 233 787 244 564 Netherlands 73 987 61 995 110 344 112 United Kingdom 43 009 15 985 45 647 1 319 Spain 10 356 27 090 39 620 11 138 United States 5 022 331 26 573 66 188 Belgium 11 994 35 613 24 256 23 451 Argentina 21 586 27 718 18 713 22 080 Ireland 8 286 13 336 15 556 18 555 Hungary 7 758 10 547 13 174 Denmark 6 133 9 508 9 779 10 785 Canada 5 255 131 8 884 12 219 Germany 21 821 554 6 073 81 Poland

  • 4 773

72 Thailand 347 7 616 2 078 3 477 Chile 928 408 360 721 Australia 43 264 254 956 France 7 294 24 895 105 3.1

slide-63
SLIDE 63

POULTRY IMPORTS

  • Provisional safeguard duties against the EU of 13.9% that were implemented

during December 2016 at 13,9% expired on 3 July 2017

  • A decision on a permanent safeguard duty against the EU is awaited following

efforts made by an industry, DTI and DAFF work group to secure better trade terms to support local industry jobs and reinvestment

  • Avian Influenza outbreaks caused temporary trade bans with some EU countries

and with this a switch to Brazilian and US imports has been reported

  • A record level of total poultry imports at 65 658 tons (≈ 11,7 million bpw) and

equivalent to 65% of local production was reported for March 2017

  • Imports remained relatively stable year-on-year when measured against the

Astral financial calendar year equalling approximately 8,2 million birds per week

63 63

slide-64
SLIDE 64

HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA

  • South Africa reported its first case of H5N8 infection in domestic poultry in June 2017 in Mpumalanga
  • From that date H5N8 has caused wide spread damage to the local poultry industry and in particular

significantly affected broiler breeders and commercial laying hens

  • Industry working closely with the Poultry Interest Group of the South African Veterinary Association have

engaged DAFF, and more particularly the Director for Animal Health, in an effort to propose the use of vaccination as a tool to mitigate the impact of H5N8 infection on South African poultry

  • A number of technical submissions have been made to DAFF, however some clear differences exist in

the expectations with regards to the use of the vaccine and the consequential actions should a vaccinated flock be infected with the field strain of the virus. Industry is working with the relevant authorities to find a solution to the impasse; however time is of the essence in this matter as the industry faces a serious risk

  • f further negative consequences as a result of this disease
  • In the meantime DAFF have requested the following;
  • that efficacy studies are conducted on selected commercially available international vaccines as

well as a locally available autogenous H5N8 vaccine (could take approximately three months)

  • following completion of the challenge studies, and if DAFF is satisfied with all other conditions they

requested of the industry, DAFF will invite public comment on vaccination against H5N8 and that process is expected to take an additional 3 months at a minimum

64 64

slide-65
SLIDE 65

INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION

  • Intentional short term cutbacks during 1H2017 due to an imbalance in supply and

demand

  • RCL introduced permanent cutbacks from March 2017 which saw the company

shedding approximately 1 500 jobs and reducing production by some 700 000 bpw in their Hammarsdale operation (KZN)

  • Country Bird Holdings abandoned its bid to gain control of Sovereign Foods

during September 2017, as it accepted an offer from Capital Works which offered a 33% premium over the R9 a share that CBH bid for the Sovereign shares

  • Sovereign Foods now looks set to delist from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

under the ownership of the private equity firm Capital Works

  • Daybreak Farms now wholly owned by the Public Investment Corporation following

a buy out of other shareholders

65 65

slide-66
SLIDE 66

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

SOUTH AFRICAN PROTEIN PRICE COMPARISON

Source: FNB, Red Meat Industry Forum

Chicken Pork Beef Mutton Feed Conversion Rate 1.6 2.2 5.5 5.0 Per Capita Consumption 39.1 kg 4.7 kg 19.5 kg 3.4 kg Cents per kg 66 66

slide-67
SLIDE 67

CONTACT DETAILS

Chris Schutte Chief Executive Officer Tel : +27 (0) 12 667 5468 Fax : +27 (0) 86 504 2002 email: Chris.Schutte@astralfoods.com

www.astralfoods.com

Daan Ferreira Chief Financial Officer Tel : +27 (0) 12 667 5468 Fax : +27 (0) 86 504 1602 email: Daan.Ferreira@astralfoods.com