Prt trt - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Oct 14, 2022 372 likes •621 views

Prt trt r rst r t st r t rstr

SLIDE 1

Pr♦♠♦t✐♥❣ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❆ ♣❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❊❛st ❆❢r✐❝❛♥ ❈♦♠♠✉♥✐t②

❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ❖①❢♦r❞ ❛♥❞ ■●❈✲❚❛♥③❛♥✐❛ ❋❊❘❉■ ✲ ❇❛♥q✉❡ ❞❡ ❋r❛♥❝❡ ❈♦♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ P❛r✐s✱ ▼❛② ✷✼✱ ✷✵✶✹

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 2

❖✉t❧✐♥❡

✶

❚❤❡ ❊❛st ❆❢r✐❝❛♥ ❈♦♠♠✉♥✐t②✿ ❤✐st♦r② ❛♥❞ str✉❝t✉r❡

✷

❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛♥❞ ❝r♦ss✲❜♦r❞❡r ❧✐♥❦❛❣❡s✿ ❛ st♦❝❦✲t❛❦❡

✸

❊❛st ❆❢r✐❝❛♥ ▼♦♥❡t❛r② ❯♥✐♦♥

✹

❚❤❡ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② ❝❤❛❧❧❡♥❣❡

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✷ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 3

❚❤❡ ❊❆❈✿ ❛♥ ❡✈♦❧✈✐♥❣ ♣r♦❥❡❝t

KENYA, UGANDA, TANZANIA

[1917 – 1977] [July 2000 - ]

BURUNDI & RWANDA

[July 2009 - ]

SOUTH SUDAN, SOMALIA

[2015 ?? - ]

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✸ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 4

■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❊❆❈✿ ❦❡② ♠✐❧❡st♦♥❡s ❛♥❞ r❡❝❡♥t ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

Customs Union (CET)

Protocol , 2000
Implementation, 2005

Single Market (labour and capital)

Protocol, July 2010
Implementation, 2015(?)

Monetary Union

Protocol ,December 2013
Union by 2024 (?)

Political Federation

…with all deliberate speed…

East African Union: Four Key Steps

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✹ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 5

▼♦♥❡t❛r② ✉♥✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥✿ t❤❡ ♣r♦♠✐s❡

❘❡❛❧ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❞r✐✈❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥✳✳✳✳ ▼♦♥❡t❛r② ✉♥✐♦♥ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡s ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ r✐s❦✿

◮ ❛❧❧♦✇s ❢♦r ❞❡❡♣❡r ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ r❛♣✐❞ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ss❡t ♠❛r❦❡ts ✭♠♦♥❡②✱

❞❡❜t ❛♥❞ ❡q✉✐t②✮

◮ ✜r♠s ✭❛♥❞ ❣♦✈❡r♥♠❡♥ts✮ ❝❛♥ ❛❝❝❡ss ❞❡❡♣❡r ♣♦♦❧s ♦❢ s❛✈✐♥❣s ◮ ✐♠♣r♦✈❡❞ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✐♥ ❛❧❧♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❜❡tt❡r r✐s❦ ❞✐✈❡rs✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ✭❡✳❣✳

❆s❞r✉❜❛❧✐ ❡t ❛❧ ✱ ✶✾✾✻✮

❉♦❡s ♥♦t ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ ❝r❡❞✐t r✐s❦✿ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t❡❞ ❜✉t ❛ss❡ts ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ♣❡r❢❡❝t s✉❜st✐t✉t❡s ❉✐r❡❝t❧② ❛❞❞r❡ss❡s ❦❡② ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥ts ✭s♠❛❧❧ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐③❡✱ ❤✐❣❤ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛t✐♦♥✮ ❋♦r❝❡s ❛tt❡♥t✐♦♥ ♦♥ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❣♦✈❡r♥❛♥❝❡

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✺ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 6

❚❤❡ ❊❆❈✿ ❜❛s✐❝ ♥✉♠❜❡rs

❆ t✇♦✲♣❛rt ✉♥✐♦♥✿ ✏t❤❡ ❜✐❣ t❤r❡❡✑ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❢r✐♥❣❡

❚❛❜❧❡ ✶✿ ❊❆❈ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❙tr✉❝t✉r❡ ✷✵✶✸ ❑❡♥②❛ ❯❣❛♥❞❛ ❚❛♥③❛♥✐❛ ❘✇❛♥❞❛ ❇✉r✉♥❞✐

❉P ♣✳❝✳ ❬PPP❪

✩✷✶✵✾ ✩✶✸✸✹ ✩✶✻✺✹ ✩✶✸✼✾ ✩✼✸✼ ❬❞❡❝❛❞❛❧ ❣r♦✇t❤❪ ✶✳✻✪ ✹✳✸✪ ✹✳✾✪ ✼✳✶✪ ✵✳✷✪ ❙tr✉❝t✉r❡ ✭✪ ●❉P✮ ❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❡ ✷✾✳✾ ✷✺✳✾ ✷✼✳✻ ✸✷✳✾ ✹✵✳✻ ■♥❞✉str② ✹✳✹ ✷✳✺ ✼✳✽ ✼✳✷ ✹✳✶ ▼❛♥✉❢❛❝t✉r✐♥❣ ✶✵✳✹ ✾✳✶ ✶✵✳✷ ✺✳✾ ✾✳✶ ❙❡r✈✐❝❡s ✺✷✳✼ ✹✺✳✺ ✹✼✳✹ ✺✶✳✶ ✹✷✳✺ ❚r❛❞❡ ✼✶✳✽ ✻✷✳✵ ✼✻✳✾ ✹✻✳✽ ✹✻✳✹ ❙♦✉r❝❡✿ ❲❉■

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✻ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 7

❘❡❛❧ ❞r✐✈❡rs ♦❢ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✭✶✮✿ tr❛❞❡ ✢♦✇s

❆r❝❤✐t❡❝t✉r❡ ❢♦r ✬❡✈❡r ❞❡❡♣❡r ✉♥✐♦♥✬ ❣r❛❞✉❛❧❧② ❜❡✐♥❣ ♣✉t ✐♥ ♣❧❛❝❡✱ ❜✉t ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ st✐❧❧ ❧✐♠✐t❡❞✳ ■♥tr❛✲❊❆❈ tr❛❞❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❜✉t ♦♥❧② s❧✐❣❤t❧② ❢❛st❡r t❤❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ tr❛❞❡ ❛♥❞ ●❉P

❚❛❜❧❡ ✷✿ ❊❆❈ ■♥tr❛✲r❡❣✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ t♦t❛❧ tr❛❞❡ ❊①♣♦rts ■♠♣♦rts ❯❙✩♠ ✪❚r❛❞❡ ✪●❉P ❯❙✩♠ ✪❚r❛❞❡ ✪●❉P ✷✵✵✺ ❚♦t❛❧ ✺✱✽✼✸ ✶✷✳✻✪ ✶✶✱✺✷✹ ✷✹✳✼✪ ■♥tr❛✲❊❆❈ ✶✱✷✼✷ ✷✷✪ ✷✳✼✪ ✾✸✶ ✽✳✶✪ ✷✳✵✪ ✷✵✶✶ ❚♦t❛❧ ✶✷✱✽✼✷ ✶✺✳✷✪ ✸✷✱✾✶✾ ✸✽✳✾✪ ■♥tr❛✲❊❆❈ ✷✱✼✵✻ ✷✶✪ ✸✳✷✪ ✷✱✷✺✽ ✻✳✾✪ ✷✳✼✪ ❙♦✉r❝❡✿ ❊❆❈ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝s ❉❛t❛❜❛s❡

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✼ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 8

❊❆❈ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡❛❧ s✐❞❡ ✭✷✮✿ ❧❛❜♦✉r ♠❛r❦❡ts

◆♦ ❝♦♠♣r❡❤❡♥s✐✈❡ ❧❛❜♦✉r ♠❛❦❡t ❞❛t❛✳✳✳ ✳✳✳❜✉t ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢r♦♠ ❲❇ r❡♠✐tt❛♥❝❡ ❞❛t❛ ♦❢ ❣r♦✇✐♥❣ ❧❛❜♦✉r ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥ts ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❑❡♥②❛ ❛♥❞ ❯❣❛♥❞❛ ❙✐♥❣❧❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r♦✈✐s✐♦♥s st✐❧❧ ❜❡✐♥❣ r♦❧❧❡❞✲♦✉t ❡❧s❡✇❤❡r❡ ✭❡✳❣✳ ❚❛♥③❛♥✐❛ ❧❛❣❣✐♥❣✮ ❙tr♦♥❣ ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❢♦r ❧❛❜♦✉r ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥t ✭s❦✐❧❧❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✉♥s❦✐❧❧❡❞✮ ✕ ❡✳❣✳ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✽ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 9

❊❆❈ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡❛❧ s✐❞❡ ✭✸✮✿ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts

❊❆❈ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❡❝t♦rs s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ t❤♦s❡ ❡❧s❡✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥ ❙❙❆ ✕ ❜✉t st✐❧❧ s♠❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ ❧❛❣❣✐♥❣ ♦t❤❡r ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣✐♥❣ ❝♦✉♥tr✐❡s

Aggregate Financial Developments (Avg 2010-1014)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Liquid liabilities (% GDP) Bank deposits (% GDP) Credit to private sector (%GDP)

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✾ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 10

❑❡♥②❛ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡s ♦♥ ❛❧❧ ❝♦✉♥ts

Aggregate Financial Developments – EAC (Avg 2010-1014)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Liquid liabilities (% GDP) Bank deposits (% GDP) Credit to private sector (%GDP) EAC Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Burundi

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶✵ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 11

❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❧✐❜❡r❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥

❉✐✛❡r❡♥t✐❛❧ ♣r♦❣r❡ss ♦♥ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ❧✐❜❡r❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✬❋✉❧❧ ❧✐❜❡r❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥✬ ✐♥ ❯❣❛♥❞❛ ✭s✐♥❝❡ ✶✾✾✼✮ ❛♥❞ ❘✇❛♥❞❛ ✭✷✵✶✵✮

◮ s✐❣♥❛❧❧✐♥❣ ❡✛❡❝ts❄

✬❞❡ ❢❛❝t♦✬ ❢✉❧❧ ❧✐❜❡r❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❑❡♥②❛ ✬P❛rt✐❛❧✬ ❚❛♥③❛♥✐❛ ✭❛❧t❤♦✉❣❤ ❡❛s✐❧② ❝✐r❝✉♠♥❛✈✐❣❛t❡❞ ✈✐❛ ♦♥✲s❤♦r❡ ❢♦r❡① ❛ss❡ts✮ ❱❡r② ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ ✐♥ ❇✉r✉♥❞✐

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶✶ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 12

❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ❛❝❝♦✉♥t ♦♣❡♥♥❡ss

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶✷ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 13

❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✿ ❞❡❜t

❉❡❜t ♦✈❡r✇❤❡❧♠✐♥❣❧② s❤♦rt✲❞❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ♣✉❜❧✐❝✲s❡❝t♦r ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡❞ ❖✇♥❡rs❤✐♣ ❤✐❣❤❧② ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛t❡❞

❚❛❜❧❡ ✸✿ ❉❡❜t ▼❛r❦❡t ■♥❞✐❝❛t♦rs ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ❑❡♥②❛ ❯❣❛♥❞❛ ❚❛♥③❛♥✐❛ ❘✇❛♥❞❛ ❇✉r✉♥❞✐ ❇♦♥❞ ▼❛r❦❡ts ✭ st♦❝❦ ❛s ✪ ●❉P✮ ❚✳❇✐❧❧s ✻✳✺ ✸✳✻ ✷✳✷ ✶✳✼ ✽✳✺ ❚✳❇♦♥❞s ✷✵✳✽ ✹✳✺ ✽✳✶ ✵✳✺ ✵✳✵ ❈♦r♣♦r❛t❡ ✷✳✹ ✵✳✸ ✵✳✹ ✵✳✵✸ ✵✳✵ ❖✇♥❡rs❤✐♣ ✭s❤❛r❡ ♦❢ ♠❛r❦❡t❡❞ ❞❡❜t✮ ❇❛♥❦s ✺✸ ✼✼ ✹✶ ✽✸ ✻✺ ❈❡♥t✳ ❇❛♥❦ ✵ ✺ ✵ ✵ ✷✹ ❖❋■s ✸✽ ✶✼ ✷✺ ✷ ✶✵ ❖t❤❡r ✾ ✶ ✸✹ ✶✺ ✶ ❙♦✉r❝❡✿ ❨❛❜❛r❛ ✭✷✵✶✹✱ ❢♦rt❤❝♦♠✐♥❣✮

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶✸ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 14

❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts✿ ❡q✉✐t②

❈❧♦s❡ ❝♦♦♣❡r❛t✐♦♥ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ❛✉t❤♦r✐t✐❡s ❙♦♠❡ ❝r♦ss✲❧✐st✐♥❣ ✭♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧❧② ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s✮

❚❛❜❧❡ ✹✿ ❊q✉✐t② ▼❛r❦❡t ■♥❞✐❝❛t♦rs ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ❑❡♥②❛ ❯❣❛♥❞❛ ❚❛♥③❛♥✐❛ ❘✇❛♥❞❛ ❇✉r✉♥❞✐ ★ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡s ✺✺ ✶✸ ✶✺ ✷ ♥✳❛ ▼❛r❦❡t ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✐③❛t✐♦♥ ✭✪ ●❉P✮ ✹✻✪ ✶✷✪ ✶✻✪ ❁✵✳✶✪ ♥✳❛✳ ❚✉r♥♦✈❡r ❘❛t✐♦ ✽✳✽ ✶✳✵ ✵✳✼ ❁✵✳✷ ♥✳❛✳ ❙♦✉r❝❡✿ ❨❛❜❛r❛ ✭✷✵✶✹✱ ❢♦rt❤❝♦♠✐♥❣✮

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶✹ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 15

❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ❊❆❈ ❝r♦ss✲❜♦r❞❡r ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥

❙tr❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ ❝r♦ss✲❜♦r❞❡r ❛❜✐tr❛❣❡ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ❜② ❡①❛♠✐♥✐♥❣ ❝♦✲♠♦✈❡♠❡♥t ♦❢ ❛ss❡t r❡t✉r♥s r❡❧❛t✐✈❡ t♦ ❑❡♥②❛ ✭❨❛❜❛r❛✱ ✷✵✶✹✮✳

◮ ❍♦✇ ♠✉❝❤ ♠❡❛♥✲r❡✈❡rs✐♦♥ ✐♥ ✭r✐s❦ ❛♥❞ ♠❛t✉r✐t②✲♠❛t❝❤❡❞✮ s♣❡❛❞s

❛❝r♦ss ❊❆❈ ♠❛r❦❡ts❄

◮ ❍♦✇ ♠✉❝❤ ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥❄

✬❙✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t ❜✉t s❧♦✇✬ ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡ ✐♥ ❚✳❇✐❧❧ ❛♥❞ ✐♥t❡r❜❛♥❦ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❢♦r s❤♦rt✲❞❛t❡❞ ❛ss❡ts

◮ ❤❛❧❢✲❧✐❢❡ ❢r♦♠ ✼ ♠♦♥t❤s ✐♥ ❚❛♥③❛♥✐❛ t♦ ✸✷ ♠♦♥t❤s ✐♥ ❇✉r✉♥❞✐ ◮ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t r❡❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❤❛❧❢✲❧✐❢❡ ♣♦st✲✷✵✵✼✳ ◮ ◆♦t❤✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❧♦♥❣❡r✲❞❛t❡❞ ❜♦♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡ts ✭♣r♦❜❧❡♠s ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛❜✐❧✐t②✮ ❛♥❞

str♦♥❣ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ ✈❛r✐❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ r❡t✉r♥s✳

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶✺ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 16

❊❆▼❯ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ♣r❡♣❛r❛t✐♦♥s ❢♦r ❞❡❡♣❡r ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥

▼♦♥❡t❛r② ❯♥✐♦♥ Pr♦t♦❝♦❧ s✐❣♥❡❞ ✐♥ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡r ✷✵✶✸✳✳✳❜✉t ✇✐t❤ ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ ❡♥t❤✉s✐❛s♠ ♦♥ t❤❡ ♣❛rt ♦❢ s♦♠❡ ♠❡♠❜❡rs✳✳✳

◮ ❊✉r♦③♦♥❡ ❡①♣❡r✐❡♥❝❡ ❤❛s ❝❛st ❛ ❧♦♥❣ s❤❛❞♦✇ ✭❢♦r ❣♦♦❞ ❛♥❞ ✐❧❧✮ ◮ ❚❛r❣❡ts s❡t ❢♦r ✉♥✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ✷✵✷✹ ◮ ✬❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ●❡♦♠❡tr②✬ ♣r♦✈✐s✐♦♥s ✭♠✐♥ ♦❢ ✸ ♠❡♠❜❡rs✮ ◮ ❱❡r② t✐❣❤t ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ✬st❛❜✐❧✐t② ❛♥❞ ❣r♦✇t❤✬ ♣r♦✈✐s✐♦♥s ✭❛r❣✉❛❜❧②

♥♦t ✇❡❧❧ t❛r❣❡t❡❞✮

◮ ▼❛♥② ❞❡t❛✐❧s st✐❧❧ t♦ ❜❡ ✇♦r❦❡❞ ♦✉t✳ ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶✻ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 17

❚❤❡ tr❛♥s✐t✐♦♥ t♦ ❊❆▼❯

❊①t❡♥❞❡❞ ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ♣❤❛s❡ ✇✐t❤ ♣❛rt♥❡r st❛t❡s ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❞♦♠❡st✐❝❛❧❧② ❛♥❝❤♦r❡❞ ■❚ r❡❣✐♠❡s ❛r♦✉♥❞ t✐❣❤t ✜s❝❛❧ ❝♦♥✈❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ♣❛t❤ ❙❤♦rt ❝♦♥✈❡rs✐♦♥ ♣❤❛s❡ ♦❢ t✐❣❤t ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ r❛t❡ ❝♦♠♠✐tt♠❡♥ts ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡❧② ♣r✐♦r t♦ ✉♥✐♦♥✳ ❉✉r✐♥❣ tr❛♥s✐t✐♦♥ ✿

◮ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣♠❡♥t ♦❢ ❝r♦ss✲❜♦r❞❡r ♣❛②♠❡♥ts s②st❡♠s ✭❊❆ ❈r♦ss✲❇♦r❞❡r

P❛②♠❡♥t ❙②st❡♠✮

◮ ❣r❛❞✉❛❧ ❡♠❡r❣❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✬s❤❛❞♦✇✬ s✉♣r❛♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s ❛s ♣r❡✲❝✉rs♦r

t♦ ❊❆ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❇❛♥❦

◮ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣♠❡♥t ♦❢ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② str✉❝t✉r❡s ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶✼ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 18

❚❤❡ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② ❝❤❛❧❧❡♥❣❡

❘❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② str✉❝t✉r❡s st✐❧❧ ✈❡r② r✉❞✐♠❡♥t❛r② ✐♥ ❊❆❈ ❇✉t ❜✐❣ ♦♣♣♦rt✉♥✐t② t♦ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣ ❛♣♣r♦♣r✐❛t❡ s②st❡♠s ❢♦r t❤❡ r❡❣✐♦♥ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s②st❡♠ st✐❧❧ ❤✐❣❤❧② ❜❛♥❦✲❝❡♥tr❡❞ ❆❧❧ ❝♦✉♥tr✐❡s ✭❡①❝❡♣t ❇✉r✉♥❞✐✮ ❤❛✈❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡❞ r✐s❦✲❜❛s❡❞ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ s✉♣❡r✈✐s✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❛r❡ ♠♦✈✐♥❣ t♦ ❝♦♠♣❧② ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❇❛s❡❧ ❈♦r❡ Pr✐♥❝✐♣❧❡s✳

◮ ❜✉t s②st❡♠s ❛r❡ ❧✐♥❦❡❞ t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❝r♦ss✲❝♦✉♥tr② ♦✇♥❡rs❤✐♣ ♦❢ ❜❛♥❦s ❂❃

✈✉❧♥❡r❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❝r✐s❡s t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❝♦♥t❛❣✐♦♥✳

◮ ❧✐♠✐t❡❞ r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✬s❤❛❞♦✇ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣✬ ✴ ◆❇❋■ s❡❝t♦r ❂❃ r✐s❦ ♦❢

r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡

◆❡❡❞ ❢♦r s✉❜st❛♥t✐❛❧ ✐♥✈❡st♠❡♥t ✐♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ ❧❡❣❛❧ ❢r❛♠❡✇♦r❦s

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶✽ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 19

❘❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥✿ ♠✐❝r♦✲str✉❝t✉r❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠❛❝r♦✲♣r✉❞❡♥t✐❛❧

❍♦♠❡✲❜✐❛s r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✬r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② ❝❛♣t✉r❡✬ ✭❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧❧② ♦♥ ❋❉■ ✐♥✢♦✇s✮ ❈♦♠♠♦♥ ❧❡❣❛❧ ❢r❛♠❡✇♦r❦s ❛♥❞ ❝♦♦♣❡r❛t✐✈❡ s✉♣❡r✈✐s♦r② ❝♦❧❧❡❣❡s ❋♦❝✉s ♦♥ ♦✛✲❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ s❤❡❡t ❛s s②st❡♠s ♠♦✈❡ ❢r♦♠ ✬♦r✐❣✐♥❛t❡✲t♦✲❤♦❧❞✬ t♦ ✬♦r✐❣✐♥❛t❡✲t♦✲❞✐str✐❜✉t❡✬ ❚❤✉s✱ ❍▲❋■s ❛♥❞ ❚❇❚❋ ❝♦♥❝❡r♥s ♥♦t ②❡t ♣r❡s❡♥t ✭❛t r❡❣✐♦♥❛❧ ❧❡✈❡❧ ❛t ❧❡❛st✮✳

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶✾ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 20

❆♥t✐❝✐♣❛t✐♥❣ ♠❛❝r♦✲♣r✉❞❡♥t✐❛❧ r❡q✉✐r❡♠❡♥ts ✭❛ ♠♦✈❡ t♦✇❛r❞s ❛ ❢✉❧❧ ❇❛♥❦✐♥❣ ❯♥✐♦♥✮❄

✏❨♦✉ ❝❛♥✬t ♠❛❦❡ t❤❡ s②st❡♠ s❛❢❡ ❜② ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❡❛❝❤ ❜❛♥❦ s❛❢❡✑

◮ ✭r❡❝❛❧❧✱ ❛❧❧ ■r✐s❤ ❜❛♥❦s ♣❛ss❡❞ t❤❡ ❊✉r♦♣❡❛♥ str❡ss t❡sts ✐♥ ❙✉♠♠❡r

✷✵✶✵✦✮✳

▼❛❝r♦ ♣r✉❞❡♥t✐❛❧ s❡❡❦s t♦ ♣r♦✈✐❞❡ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s t♦ ✐♥t❡r♥❛❧✐③❡ t❤❡ s♦❝✐❛❧ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝r✐s❡s ✭✇✐t❤♦✉t ♦✈❡r✲❝♦♥str❛✐♥✐♥❣ t❤❡ s②st❡♠✮ ❘✐s❦✲♣r✐❝❡ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉s s♦ ♠❛❝r♦✲♣r✉ ♠✉st ❜❡ ❝♦✉♥t❡r✲❝②❝❧✐❝❛❧ ✭❧❡❛♥ ❛❣❛✐♥st ✉♥❞❡r♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ♦❢ r✐s❦ ✐♥ ❜♦♦♠ t✐♠❡s✮

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✷✵ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 21

❊❧❡♠❡♥ts ♦❢ ❛♥ ❊❆❈ ♠❛❝r♦✲♣r✉❞❡♥t✐❛❧ ❢r❛♠❡✇♦r❦

P✉❜❧✐❝ ♠♦♥❡② ❢♦r s②st❡♠✐❝ r✐s❦s ♦♥❧② ✭❙■❋■s✮ ❊① ❛♥t❡ ❜✉r❞❡♥ s❤❛r✐♥❣ ✏✇❛❧❧ ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡②✑ ❝♦♠♠✐tt♠❡♥ts ❢r♦♠ ❊❆❈❇ s✐♥❣❧❡✲s✉♣❡r✈✐s♦r② ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐s♠s t♦ s❡❡ ♦✛ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② ❝❛♣t✉r❡

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✷✶ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 22

■s t❤❡ ✬❜❡st t❤❡ ❡♥❡♠② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❣♦♦❞✬

❇❛s❡❧ ■■■ ♥♦t ❜✐♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ ▲■❈s ❜✉t ❛r❡ ▲■❈s ❝❤♦♦s✐♥❣ t♦ ✈♦❧✉♥t❛r✐❧② ❛❞♦♣t ❇❛s❡❧ ■■■❄

◮ t♦ s✐❣♥❛❧ ❝r❡❞✐❜✐❧✐t② ✴ s❡❝✉r❡ ❝r❡❞✐t r❛t✐♥❣s

❘✐s❦s ♦❢ ♣r❡♠❛t✉r❡ ❛❞♦♣t✐♦♥✿

◮ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② ❝❛♣❛❝✐t② ✉♥❞❡r❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ◮ ❞r✐✈❡s ♦✉t ❢♦r❡✐❣♥ ✜r♠s ✭s❡t ❜❛❝❦ t♦ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣ ❧♦♥❣✲t❡r♠ ❛♥❞ ❙▼❊

❧❡♥❞✐♥❣❄✮

◮ ❤✐❣❤ ❝♦st r❡❣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❝r❡❛t❡s ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s ❢♦r ✬r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡✬ ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✷✷ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 23

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ❡①t❡♥s✐♦♥s

◆❖❚ ❨❊❚ ❈❖▼P▲❊❚❊

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✷✸ ✴ ✷✹

SLIDE 24

❘❡❢❡r❡♥❝❡s

❆❞❛♠✱ ❈✳✱ P✳❑❡ss②✱ ❈✳❑♦♠❜❡ ❛♥❞ ❙✳❖✬❈♦♥♥❡❧❧ ✭✷✵✶✹✮ ✏❊①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ❘❛t❡ ❆rr❛♥❣❡♠❡♥ts ✐♥ t❤❡ ❚r❛♥s✐t✐♦♥ t♦ ▼♦♥❡t❛r② ❯♥✐♦♥✑ ✐♥ ❉r✉♠♠♦♥❞ ❡t ❛❧ ✭♦♣ ❝✐t✮✳ ❆s❞r✉❜❛❧✐✱ P✳✱ ❇✳❙♦r❡♥s♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❖✳❨♦s❤❛ ✭✶✾✾✻✮ ✏❈❤❛♥♥❡❧s ♦❢ ■♥t❡rst❛t❡ ❘✐s❦✲❙❤❛r✐♥❣✿❯♥✐t❡❞ ❙t❛t❡s ✶✾✻✸✲✶✾✾✵ ◗✉❛rt❡r❧② ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s ❨❛❜❛r❛✱ ▼ ✭✷✵✶✹✮ ✏❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ❆❤❡❛❞ ♦❢ ❊❛st ❆❢r✐❝❛♥ ▼♦♥❡t❛r② ❯♥✐♦♥✑ ✐♥ ❉r✉♠♠♦♥❞ ❡t ❛❧ ✭♦♣ ❝✐t✮✳ ❉r✉♠♠♦♥❞✱ P✳✱ ❙✳❑✳❲❛❥✐❞ ❛♥❞ ❖✳❲✐❧❧✐❛♠s ✭❡❞s✮ ❚❤❡ ◗✉❡st ❢♦r ❘❡❣✐♦♥❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❊❛st ❆❢r✐❝❛ ✭■▼❋✱ ✷✵✶✹✮ ❘♦s❡✱ ❆✳ ✭✷✵✵✵✮ ✏❖♥❡ ▼♦♥❡②✱ ❖♥❡ ▼❛r❦❡t✿ ❊st✐♠❛t✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❊✛❡❝t ♦❢ ❈♦♠♠♦♥ ❈✉rr❡♥❝✐❡s ♦♥ ❚r❛❞❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ P♦❧✐❝② ✸✵ ♣♣ ✾✲✹✺✳

❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✷✹ ✴ ✷✹