Pr♦♠♦t✐♥❣ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❆ ♣❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❊❛st ❆❢r✐❝❛♥ ❈♦♠♠✉♥✐t② ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐t② ♦❢ ❖①❢♦r❞ ❛♥❞ ■●❈✲❚❛♥③❛♥✐❛ ❋❊❘❉■ ✲ ❇❛♥q✉❡ ❞❡ ❋r❛♥❝❡ ❈♦♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ P❛r✐s✱ ▼❛② ✷✼✱ ✷✵✶✹ ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶ ✴ ✷✹
❖✉t❧✐♥❡ ❚❤❡ ❊❛st ❆❢r✐❝❛♥ ❈♦♠♠✉♥✐t②✿ ❤✐st♦r② ❛♥❞ str✉❝t✉r❡ ✶ ❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛♥❞ ❝r♦ss✲❜♦r❞❡r ❧✐♥❦❛❣❡s✿ ❛ st♦❝❦✲t❛❦❡ ✷ ❊❛st ❆❢r✐❝❛♥ ▼♦♥❡t❛r② ❯♥✐♦♥ ✸ ❚❤❡ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② ❝❤❛❧❧❡♥❣❡ ✹ ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✷ ✴ ✷✹
❚❤❡ ❊❆❈✿ ❛♥ ❡✈♦❧✈✐♥❣ ♣r♦❥❡❝t • KENYA, UGANDA, TANZANIA [1917 – 1977] [July 2000 - ] • BURUNDI & RWANDA [July 2009 - ] • SOUTH SUDAN, SOMALIA [2015 ?? - ] ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✸ ✴ ✷✹
■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❊❆❈✿ ❦❡② ♠✐❧❡st♦♥❡s ❛♥❞ r❡❝❡♥t ❛♥❛❧②s✐s East African Union: Four Key Steps Customs Union (CET) • Protocol , 2000 • Implementation, 2005 Single Market (labour and capital) • Protocol, July 2010 • Implementation, 2015(?) Monetary Union • Protocol ,December 2013 • Union by 2024 (?) Political Federation • …with all deliberate speed… ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✹ ✴ ✷✹
▼♦♥❡t❛r② ✉♥✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥✿ t❤❡ ♣r♦♠✐s❡ ❘❡❛❧ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✇✐❧❧ ❞r✐✈❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥✳✳✳✳ ▼♦♥❡t❛r② ✉♥✐♦♥ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡s ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ r✐s❦✿ ◮ ❛❧❧♦✇s ❢♦r ❞❡❡♣❡r ❛♥❞ ♠♦r❡ r❛♣✐❞ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❛ss❡t ♠❛r❦❡ts ✭♠♦♥❡②✱ ❞❡❜t ❛♥❞ ❡q✉✐t②✮ ◮ ✜r♠s ✭❛♥❞ ❣♦✈❡r♥♠❡♥ts✮ ❝❛♥ ❛❝❝❡ss ❞❡❡♣❡r ♣♦♦❧s ♦❢ s❛✈✐♥❣s ◮ ✐♠♣r♦✈❡❞ ❡✣❝✐❡♥❝② ✐♥ ❛❧❧♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❜❡tt❡r r✐s❦ ❞✐✈❡rs✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ✭❡✳❣✳ ❆s❞r✉❜❛❧✐ ❡t ❛❧ ✱ ✶✾✾✻✮ ❉♦❡s ♥♦t ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛t❡ ❝r❡❞✐t r✐s❦✿ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❛r❡ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t❡❞ ❜✉t ❛ss❡ts ♥♦t ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❧② ♣❡r❢❡❝t s✉❜st✐t✉t❡s ❉✐r❡❝t❧② ❛❞❞r❡ss❡s ❦❡② ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥ts ✭s♠❛❧❧ ♠❛r❦❡t s✐③❡✱ ❤✐❣❤ ❝♦sts ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛t✐♦♥✮ ❋♦r❝❡s ❛tt❡♥t✐♦♥ ♦♥ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ♦❢ ❣♦✈❡r♥❛♥❝❡ ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✺ ✴ ✷✹
❚❤❡ ❊❆❈✿ ❜❛s✐❝ ♥✉♠❜❡rs ❆ t✇♦✲♣❛rt ✉♥✐♦♥✿ ✏t❤❡ ❜✐❣ t❤r❡❡✑ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❢r✐♥❣❡ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✶✿ ❊❆❈ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❙tr✉❝t✉r❡ ✷✵✶✸ ❑❡♥②❛ ❯❣❛♥❞❛ ❚❛♥③❛♥✐❛ ❘✇❛♥❞❛ ❇✉r✉♥❞✐ ●❉P ♣✳❝✳ ❬PPP❪ ✩✷✶✵✾ ✩✶✸✸✹ ✩✶✻✺✹ ✩✶✸✼✾ ✩✼✸✼ ❬❞❡❝❛❞❛❧ ❣r♦✇t❤❪ ✶✳✻✪ ✹✳✸✪ ✹✳✾✪ ✼✳✶✪ ✵✳✷✪ ❙tr✉❝t✉r❡ ✭✪ ●❉P✮ ❆❣r✐❝✉❧t✉r❡ ✷✾✳✾ ✷✺✳✾ ✷✼✳✻ ✸✷✳✾ ✹✵✳✻ ■♥❞✉str② ✹✳✹ ✷✳✺ ✼✳✽ ✼✳✷ ✹✳✶ ▼❛♥✉❢❛❝t✉r✐♥❣ ✶✵✳✹ ✾✳✶ ✶✵✳✷ ✺✳✾ ✾✳✶ ❙❡r✈✐❝❡s ✺✷✳✼ ✹✺✳✺ ✹✼✳✹ ✺✶✳✶ ✹✷✳✺ ❚r❛❞❡ ✼✶✳✽ ✻✷✳✵ ✼✻✳✾ ✹✻✳✽ ✹✻✳✹ ❙♦✉r❝❡✿ ❲❉■ ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✻ ✴ ✷✹
❘❡❛❧ ❞r✐✈❡rs ♦❢ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✭✶✮✿ tr❛❞❡ ✢♦✇s ❆r❝❤✐t❡❝t✉r❡ ❢♦r ✬❡✈❡r ❞❡❡♣❡r ✉♥✐♦♥✬ ❣r❛❞✉❛❧❧② ❜❡✐♥❣ ♣✉t ✐♥ ♣❧❛❝❡✱ ❜✉t ✉♥❞❡r❧②✐♥❣ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ st✐❧❧ ❧✐♠✐t❡❞✳ ■♥tr❛✲❊❆❈ tr❛❞❡ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❜✉t ♦♥❧② s❧✐❣❤t❧② ❢❛st❡r t❤❛♥ ❛❣❣r❡❣❛t❡ tr❛❞❡ ❛♥❞ ●❉P ❚❛❜❧❡ ✷✿ ❊❆❈ ■♥tr❛✲r❡❣✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ t♦t❛❧ tr❛❞❡ ❊①♣♦rts ■♠♣♦rts ❯❙✩♠ ✪❚r❛❞❡ ✪●❉P ❯❙✩♠ ✪❚r❛❞❡ ✪●❉P ✷✵✵✺ ❚♦t❛❧ ✺✱✽✼✸ ✶✷✳✻✪ ✶✶✱✺✷✹ ✷✹✳✼✪ ■♥tr❛✲❊❆❈ ✶✱✷✼✷ ✷✷✪ ✷✳✼✪ ✾✸✶ ✽✳✶✪ ✷✳✵✪ ✷✵✶✶ ❚♦t❛❧ ✶✷✱✽✼✷ ✶✺✳✷✪ ✸✷✱✾✶✾ ✸✽✳✾✪ ■♥tr❛✲❊❆❈ ✷✱✼✵✻ ✷✶✪ ✸✳✷✪ ✷✱✷✺✽ ✻✳✾✪ ✷✳✼✪ ❙♦✉r❝❡ ✿ ❊❆❈ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝s ❉❛t❛❜❛s❡ ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✼ ✴ ✷✹
❊❆❈ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡❛❧ s✐❞❡ ✭✷✮✿ ❧❛❜♦✉r ♠❛r❦❡ts ◆♦ ❝♦♠♣r❡❤❡♥s✐✈❡ ❧❛❜♦✉r ♠❛❦❡t ❞❛t❛✳✳✳ ✳✳✳❜✉t ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢r♦♠ ❲❇ r❡♠✐tt❛♥❝❡ ❞❛t❛ ♦❢ ❣r♦✇✐♥❣ ❧❛❜♦✉r ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥ts ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❑❡♥②❛ ❛♥❞ ❯❣❛♥❞❛ ❙✐♥❣❧❡ ♠❛r❦❡t ♣r♦✈✐s✐♦♥s st✐❧❧ ❜❡✐♥❣ r♦❧❧❡❞✲♦✉t ❡❧s❡✇❤❡r❡ ✭❡✳❣✳ ❚❛♥③❛♥✐❛ ❧❛❣❣✐♥❣✮ ❙tr♦♥❣ ♣♦t❡♥t✐❛❧ ❢♦r ❧❛❜♦✉r ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥t ✭s❦✐❧❧❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✉♥s❦✐❧❧❡❞✮ ✕ ❡✳❣✳ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ ❧❛♥❣✉❛❣❡ ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✽ ✴ ✷✹
❊❆❈ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ r❡❛❧ s✐❞❡ ✭✸✮✿ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡ts ❊❆❈ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❡❝t♦rs s✐♠✐❧❛r t♦ t❤♦s❡ ❡❧s❡✇❤❡r❡ ✐♥ ❙❙❆ ✕ ❜✉t st✐❧❧ s♠❛❧❧ ❛♥❞ ❧❛❣❣✐♥❣ ♦t❤❡r ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣✐♥❣ ❝♦✉♥tr✐❡s Aggregate Financial Developments (Avg 2010-1014) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Liquid liabilities (% GDP) Bank deposits (% GDP) Credit to private sector ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✾ ✴ ✷✹ (%GDP)
❑❡♥②❛ ❞♦♠✐♥❛t❡s ♦♥ ❛❧❧ ❝♦✉♥ts Aggregate Financial Developments – EAC (Avg 2010-1014) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Liquid liabilities (% GDP) Bank deposits (% GDP) Credit to private sector (%GDP) EAC Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Burundi ❋❊❘❉■✴❇❞❋ ✭▼❛② ✷✵✶✹✮ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ■♥t❡❣r❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❆❢r✐❝❛ ❈❤r✐st♦♣❤❡r ❆❞❛♠ ✶✵ ✴ ✷✹
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