Potential of low carbon city - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

都市の低炭素化のポテンシャ ルと その解析 Potential of low carbon city formation and its analysis Department of Urban Engineering Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S) The University of Tokyo Keisuke Hanaki hanaki@env.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Future per capita CO 2 emission target Thailand (2004) 3.7 China (2004) 3.7 Shanghai (1998) 7.6 Japan (2004) 10.0 Tokyo (2004) 4.9 Kitakyushu (2002) 14.5 0 5 10 15 t-CO 2 /person Per capita CO 2 emission in Asian countries and cities. 2

Strategy for Low Carbon City Energy supply side and Demand side management � Energy supply side � Fuel selection, Renewable energy (forest, agriculture and urban sector) � Electricity technology � Demand side � Household, Office & commercial, transportation � Urban form change 3

Approach of analysis of urban activity GIS is useful, but not always necessary and convenient. Spatial distribution of Statistics (Amount of land/buildings buildings, land) Analysis using GIS Number of buildings, building use, floor area Basic ○○市 ○○市 111 34 information 23 345 111 34 98785 23 005 98725 Analysis District Town, city, prefecture scale Effect of district heating Building improvement, using solid waste Photovoltaic cell incineration heat Example of analysis Biomass utilization of solid wastes 4

Interaction between power demand and power supply Impact of demand change on fuel composition of power generation Power Generation Oil (MW) LNG Coal Nuclear Hydro Effect of fuel 0 6 12 18 24 composition of Time (h) power generation on CO 2 reduction 5

Target cities Cold Moderate Hot Mega Sapporo Tokyo Large Sendai Hiroshima middle Hakodate Utsunomiya Kagoshima/ Naha C i t y n a m e A r e a P o p u l a t i o n S o l a r H e a t i n g C o o l i n g r a d i a t i o n d e g r e e d a y s d e g r e e d a y s t i m e k m 2 I n 1 0 0 0 H o u r s / y D e g r e e - d a y D e g r e e - d a y S a p p o r o 1 1 2 1 1 8 2 3 1 7 7 4 . 8 2 5 7 4 U t s u n o m i y a 3 1 2 4 4 3 1 9 3 8 1 4 1 6 4 7 T o k y o ( 2 3 d i s t r i c t s ) 6 1 7 8 0 2 6 1 8 4 7 . 2 8 5 5 1 4 8 H i r o s h i m a 7 4 2 1 1 1 4 2 0 0 4 . 9 1 0 3 3 1 5 0 N a h a 4 9 1 2 6 1 8 2 0 . 9 4 4 4 6

CO 2 reduction potential in residential buildings •60% reduction from 1990 level in all Japan Contribution of Contribution of electricity sector residential buildings 220 100% 太陽光 1.32 1.31 百万 t-CO 2 / 年］ 200 Solar 太陽熱 1.26 180 80% 照明 1.11 1.00 160 電力対策 家事衛生 1.00 140 60% 娯楽情報 住宅対策 年間 CO 2 排出量［ 120 Hot water 冷蔵庫 100 0.56 40% 80 厨房 0.39 60 給湯 20% 40 冷房 Heating 20 暖房 0 0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2050 7

[100 万 t-CO 2 ] 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 depending on climate, population, etc. CO 2 emission reduction varies among prefectures from residential buildings Prefectural difference in reduction 北海道 海道 青森県 森県 岩手県 手県 宮城県 城県 秋田県 田県 山形県 形県 2050 (BAU) 福島県 島県 茨城県 城県 1990 栃木県 木県 群馬県 馬県 埼玉県 玉県 千葉県 葉県 東京都 京都 Tokyo 神奈川県 川県 新潟県 潟県 2050 (Electricity + building effect) 2050 (Electricity effect) 富山県 山県 石川県 川県 福井県 井県 山梨県 梨県 長野県 野県 岐阜県 阜県 静岡県 岡県 愛知県 知県 三重県 重県 滋賀県 賀県 京都府 都府 大阪府 阪府 Osaka 兵庫県 庫県 奈良県 良県 和歌山県 山県 鳥取県 取県 島根県 根県 岡山県 山県 広島県 島県 山口県 口県 徳島県 島県 香川県 川県 愛媛県 媛県 2050 年 ( 電力＋建築対策） 2050 年 ( 電力対策 ) 2050 年 ( 無対策 ) 1990 年 高知県 知県 福岡県 岡県 Fukuoka 佐賀県 賀県 長崎県 崎県 熊本県 本県 大分県 分県 宮崎県 崎県 鹿児島県 島県 沖縄県 縄県 8

Office and Commercial buildings 36% reduction by construction, 71% by construction + Electricity CO 2 排出量（ 億 t ‐ CO 2 / 年） 2 . 5 E + 1 1 2.5 自然ケース 2.0 Construction 2 E + 1 1 BAU +9% （ 1990 年比） +9% from 1990 Repair 1.5 1 . 5 E + 1 1 Building effect 建築対策 Construction 改修時 -36% from 1990 ‐ 36% 1.0 1 E + 1 1 削減量 （ 1990 年比） 新築時 建築・ 電力対策 0.5 5 E + 1 0 ‐ 71% Operation 運用時 Building + electricity （ 1990 年比） effect 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -71% from 1990 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 2040 2050 年 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 9

Regionally estimated PV electricity generation -3.5 kW residential roof-top PV system -3.5 kW residential roof-top PV system -poly-Si solar cell and a module efficiency of 14 % -poly-Si solar cell and a module efficiency of 14 % -solar radiation data of prefectural capital cities from METPV-2 -solar radiation data of prefectural capital cities from METPV-2 -correction of PV output using monthly averaged air temperature -correction of PV output using monthly averaged air temperature Annual PV generation [kWh/y] 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Miyazaki Hokkaido Shizuoka Yamaguchi Ehime Miyagi Yamagata Fukushima Ibaraki Tochigi Gunma Saitama Chiba Niigata Fukui Yamanashi Gifu Shimane Okayama Hiroshima Tokushima Fukuoka Kumamoto Okinawa Aomori Akita Tokyo Toyama Ishikawa Aichi Mie Shiga Wakayama Tottori Kochi Nagasaki Oita Kagoshim Iwate Kanagawa Nagano Kyoto Osaka Hyogo Nara Kagawa Saga Maximum-Yamanashi : 5,700 kWh/y 24 % difference 24 % difference Minimum -Ishikawa : 4,500 kWh/y 10

Ratio of PV electricity generation to electricity consumption annual PV electricity generation estimated annual PV electricity generation estimated annual electricity consumption (2004) annual electricity consumption (2004) PV electricity generation 30% ／ Electric consumption 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Miyazaki Hokkaido Shizuoka Yamaguchi Ehime Miyagi Yamagata Fukushima Ibaraki Tochigi Gunma Saitama Chiba Niigata Fukui Yamanashi Gifu Shimane Okayama Hiroshima Tokushima Fukuoka Kumamoto Okinawa Aomori Akita Tokyo Toyama Ishikawa Aichi Mie Shiga Wakayama Tottori Kochi Nagasaki Oita Kagoshim Iwate Kanagawa Nagano Kyoto Osaka Hyogo Nara Kagawa Saga Maximum-Kagoshima : 20 % Minimum -Osaka : 9.0 % The ratio depends upon industrial and urban The ratio depends upon industrial and urban structures as well as degree of urbanization structures as well as degree of urbanization 11

District heating/cooling Biogas and heat supply system using sewage heat from kitchen waste & sludge in Shibaura zone, Tokyo In Kawasaki City 四谷 Yotsuya 皇居 Royal palace 1 1 3 3 K a s u m i g a s e k i A k a 赤坂 s a k a 4 4 2 2 Amount of 5 5 T 虎ノ o r a 門 n o m o n kitchen waste 6 6 (kg/day) 7 7 8 8 A 麻布 z a b u 9 9 田町 T a m a c h i Heat demand is calculated 10 10 based on building GIS 500m 500m 500m data. Potential: S 芝浦水再生 h i b a u r a 11,000 t-CO 2 /y T r e a t m センタ e n t P ー l a n t Potential: Green line: Major sewer line 12,000 t-CO 2 /y Brown line: Railway Red: DHC installed 12

District heating/cooling using solid waste incineration heat CO 2 emission reduction calculated surrounding each incineration plant Potential: 1,550,000 – 2,800,000 t-CO 2 /y × 排熱利用地域冷暖房導入可能な 13 管 単

Introduction of CGS/DHC, HP - Comparison of Seven Districts in Utsunomiya 40% Potential CO2 reduction 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 2 3 4 1 5 2 - - - - e - e e e e e e n n n n n n n o o o o o o o z z z z z z z l l l l l l a l a a a a a a i i c c i i i i i t t t t t r r n n n n n e e e e e e e m m d d d d d m m i i i i i s s s s s e e e e o e o R R R R C R C case-HP case-CGS w/o export case-CGS w. export case-DHC w/o export case-DHC w. export case-full option Potential CO 2 emission reduction from base case 14

Summary for Potential CO 2 Reduction Sapporo, Utsunomiya and Naha Relationship between the ratio of commercial building floor area to total building floor area and potential CO2 reduction (Sapporo+Naha+Utsunomiya) 4 0 . 0 % 3 5 . 0 % n o i t c u 3 0 . 0 % d e r n 2 5 . 0 % o i s s R2=0.906 i m 2 0 . 0 % e 2 O C 1 5 . 0 % l a i t n 1 0 . 0 % e t o P R2=0.882 5 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 % 1 0 % 2 0 % 3 0 % 4 0 % 5 0 % 6 0 % 7 0 % 8 0 % 9 0 % 1 0 0 % F r a c t i o n o f c o m m e r c i a l b u i l d i n g a r e a Ｈ Ｐ Ｃ Ｇ Ｓ Ｃ Ｇ Ｓ ( w . w h e e l i n g ) Ｄ Ｈ Ｃ Ｄ Ｈ Ｃ ( w . w h e e l i n g ) Ｆ Ｕ Ｌ Ｌ - U t s u n o m i y a Ｆ Ｕ Ｌ Ｌ - S a p p o r o Ｆ Ｕ Ｌ Ｌ - N a h a 15