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Potential impacts of climate change and irrigation development on fish refugia in the ephemeral rivers of Northern Australia. Jim Wallace 1 , Nathan

  1. Potential ¡impacts ¡of ¡climate ¡change ¡and ¡ irrigation ¡development ¡on ¡fish ¡refugia ¡in ¡the ¡ ephemeral ¡rivers ¡of ¡Northern ¡Australia. ¡ ¡ ¡ Jim ¡Wallace 1 , ¡Nathan ¡Waltham 1 , ¡Damien ¡Burrows 1 ¡and ¡David ¡McJannet 2 ¡ ¡ . ¡ 1 Centre ¡for ¡Tropical ¡Water ¡& ¡Aquatic ¡Ecosystem ¡Research ¡(TropWATER), ¡ James ¡Cook ¡University, ¡Townsville, ¡QLD ¡4811, ¡Australia. ¡ ¡ 2 CSIRO ¡Land ¡and ¡Water, ¡EcoSciences ¡Precinct, ¡Dutton ¡Park, ¡QLD ¡4120, ¡Australia. ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

  2. Outline ¡ • ¡Rivers ¡in ¡northern ¡Australia ¡ • Study ¡locations ¡in ¡the ¡Flinders ¡and ¡Gilbert ¡catchments ¡ • Importance ¡of ¡dry ¡season ¡waterholes ¡ • Waterhole ¡temperature ¡ • Measurements ¡ • Optimum ¡and ¡lethal ¡thresholds ¡for ¡fish ¡ • Modelling ¡ • Potential ¡impacts ¡of ¡climate ¡change ¡& ¡irrigation ¡ development ¡ • Conclusions ¡ ¡

  3. Climate ¡& ¡waterhole ¡locations ¡ Climate • Flinders mean rainfall: 492 mm • Gilbert mean rainfall: 775 mm • Potential evaporation: 1866 mm River flow Waterholes • 10 waterholes in each catchment • All in-channel (except 3 Flinders) • Flinders: 5 ephemeral, 5 permanent • Gilbert: 10 permanent ASFB & ASL Joint Congress, Cairns, 30 June – 4 July 2014

  4. Dry ¡season ¡waterholes ¡ F03: 18 September 2012 F07: 9 September 2012 F03:19 December 2012 F07: 20 December 2012

  5. Water ¡temperature ¡measurements ¡ • Hobo sensors (Onset Corporation) attached to large float • Top sensor 20 cms below surface • Bottom sensor 15 cms above bottom • Data recorded every 20 mins • September 2013 to May 2014 Continuous temperature rig in the Gilbert catchment. The larger float has the surface probe fixed to the bottom of the float to remain in the water column and shield from direct sunlight. The smaller float tether is a locator buoy. Reproduced from Waltham et al. , (2013).

  6. Water ¡& ¡air ¡temperature ¡data ¡ Flinders catchment waterhole F05 during December 2012 45" 80" 40" 70" 35" 60" Temperature'( o C)' Rainfall'(mm)' 30" 50" 25" 40" 20" 30" 15" 20" 10" 10" 5" 0" 14/12/2012" 15/12/2012" 16/12/2012" 17/12/2012" 18/12/2012" 19/12/2012" 20/12/2012" 21/12/2012" 22/12/2012" 23/12/2012" 24/12/2012" 25/12/2012" 26/12/2012" 27/12/2012" • Surface (blue) & bottom (green) temperature. Air temperature (red) & daily rainfall (black). ASFB & ASL Joint Congress, Cairns, 30 June – 4 July 2014

  7. Water ¡& ¡air ¡temperature ¡data ¡ Flinders catchment waterhole F05 during December 2012 Flinders catchment waterhole F05 during December 2012 45" 80" 40" 70" 35" 60" Temperature'( o C)' Rainfall'(mm)' 30" 50" 25" 40" 20" 30" 15" 20" 10" 10" 5" 0" 14/12/2012" 15/12/2012" 16/12/2012" 17/12/2012" 18/12/2012" 19/12/2012" 20/12/2012" 21/12/2012" 22/12/2012" 23/12/2012" 24/12/2012" 25/12/2012" 26/12/2012" 27/12/2012" • Surface (blue) & bottom (green) temperature. Air temperature (red) & daily rainfall (black). • Preferred temperature, T pref ( - - - - ) 31 o C Bony bream ( Nematalosa erebi ) Pusey et al ., (2004). ASFB & ASL Joint Congress, Cairns, 30 June – 4 July 2014

  8. Water ¡& ¡air ¡temperature ¡data ¡ Flinders catchment waterhole F05 during December 2012 Flinders catchment waterhole F05 during December 2012 45" 80" 40" 70" 35" 60" Temperature'( o C)' Rainfall'(mm)' 30" 50" 25" 40" 20" 30" 15" 20" 10" 10" 5" 0" 14/12/2012" 15/12/2012" 16/12/2012" 17/12/2012" 18/12/2012" 19/12/2012" 20/12/2012" 21/12/2012" 22/12/2012" 23/12/2012" 24/12/2012" 25/12/2012" 26/12/2012" 27/12/2012" • Surface (blue) & bottom (green) temperature. Air temperature (red) & daily rainfall (black). • Preferred temperature, T pref ( - - - - ) 31 o C Bony bream ( Nematalosa erebi ) Pusey et al ., (2004). ASFB & ASL Joint Congress, Cairns, 30 June – 4 July 2014 • Critical thermal maximum, CT max ( ŸŸŸŸŸ ) 33.5 o C Fly speckled hardyhead ( Craterocephalus stercusmuscarum ) Burrows and Butler, (2012).

  9. Threshold ¡temperature ¡exceedance ¡ 100" G10 (clear/well mixed – solid lines) 90" %"#me"above"threshold"temperature" 80" 70" 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" 10" 0" 20" 22" 24" 26" 28" 30" 32" 34" 36" 38" 40" Threshold"temperature"( o C)"

  10. Threshold ¡temperature ¡exceedance ¡ 100" G10 (clear/well mixed – solid lines) 90" %"#me"above"threshold"temperature" 80" 70" 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" 10" 0" 20" 22" 24" 26" 28" 30" 32" 34" 36" 38" 40" Threshold"temperature"( o C)"

  11. Threshold ¡temperature ¡exceedance ¡ 100" G10 (clear/well mixed – solid lines) 90" %"#me"above"threshold"temperature" 80" 70" 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" 10" 0" 20" 22" 24" 26" 28" 30" 32" 34" 36" 38" 40" Threshold"temperature"( o C)"

  12. Threshold ¡temperature ¡exceedance ¡ 100" G10 (clear/well mixed – solid lines) 90" %"#me"above"threshold"temperature" 80" 70" 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" 10" 0" 20" 22" 24" 26" 28" 30" 32" 34" 36" 38" 40" Threshold"temperature"( o C)"

  13. Threshold ¡temperature ¡exceedance ¡ 100" G10 (clear/well mixed – solid lines) 90" %"#me"above"threshold"temperature" 80" 70" 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" 10" 0" 20" 22" 24" 26" 28" 30" 32" 34" 36" 38" 40" Threshold"temperature"( o C)"

  14. Threshold ¡temperature ¡exceedance ¡ 100" G10 (clear/well mixed – solid lines) 90" %"#me"above"threshold"temperature" 80" 70" 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" 10" 0" 20" 22" 24" 26" 28" 30" 32" 34" 36" 38" 40" Threshold"temperature"( o C)"

  15. Threshold ¡temperature ¡exceedance ¡ 100" G10 (clear/well mixed – solid lines) 90" %"#me"above"threshold"temperature" F07 (turbid/stratified– dashed lines) 80" 70" 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" 10" 0" 20" 22" 24" 26" 28" 30" 32" 34" 36" 38" 40" Threshold"temperature"( o C)"

  16. Threshold ¡temperature ¡exceedance ¡ 100" G10 (clear/well mixed – solid lines) 90" %"#me"above"threshold"temperature" F07 (turbid/stratified– dashed lines) 80" 70" 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" 10" 0" 20" 22" 24" 26" 28" 30" 32" 34" 36" 38" 40" Threshold"temperature"( o C)"

  17. Waterhole ¡temperature ¡modelling ¡ • Energy balance model (Wallace et al., 2015); R n ± δ H w = H a + E {daily time step} • Inputs; solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity (SILO) and wind speed (2 m s -1 ) • Outputs; daily mean water temperature & evaporation 40" 35" Daily&average&temperature&( o C)& 30" 25" 20" 34# Model&daily&average&temperature&( o C)& 15" 32# T model = 0.93 T measured + 2.2 ( r 2 = 0.96) 10" 30# 5" 28# Poorer correlations; • Flowing streams 0" 26# 25/08/2012" 08/09/2012" 22/09/2012" 06/10/2012" 20/10/2012" 03/11/2012" 17/11/2012" 01/12/2012" 15/12/2012" 29/12/2012" 12/01/2013" 26/01/2013" 09/02/2013" 23/02/2013" 09/03/2013" • Turbid / stratified waterholes 24# • Windier sites Flinders waterhole F05 {clear / well mixed} 22# 20# 20# 22# 24# 26# 28# 30# 32# 34# Measured&daily&average&temperature&( o C) & &

  18. Climate ¡change ¡impacts ¡ • Simulations; • Mid-Flinders 2m waterhole • Zero flow starts 1 May 2012 • Green – current climate ASFB & ASL Joint Congress, Cairns, 30 June – 4 July 2014

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