Post Deyr 2012/13 February 1st, 2013 Technical Donors Partner - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Post Deyr 2012/13 February 1st, 2013

Information for Better Livelihoods

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and CooperaHon SDC

Donors Technical Partner

FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Overall Timeline

FSNAU/Partner Planning Meeting (Nairobi) November 28, 2012 Regional Planning Meetings (Field) December 17-18, 2012 Fieldwork December 19 – 28, 2012 Regional Analysis Workshops (Field) December 31, 2012 - January 4, 2013 All Team Analysis Workshops (Hargeysa) January 7 – 18, 2013 Vetting Meetings January 22 (Nut) & 28 (FS), 2013 Release of Results Post-Deyr 2012/13 Presentation of Findings and Technical Release February 1, 2013 Regional Presentations in Somalia February 2013 Technical Series Reports February 21 (Nut) & 25 (FS), 2013

FSNAU Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Partner Par:cipa:on

Analysis Workshop – Total 29 FEWS NET NAIROBI 4 WFP 5 HADMA 2 FAO Pales:ne 1 FAO Regional 1 FSC 2 Government Focal Points (Somaliland and Puntland) 15

Total Number of Partners Par:cipa:ng in Field Assessments and Analysis Workshop and VeVng – Total‐133

Food Security Field Assessment – Total 61 Na:onal Ins:tu:ons 2 Local NGOs 11 Interna:onal NGOs 7 Ministries 12 FEWS NET 3 UN 4 Enumerators 8 Focal Points 15 Nutri:on Field Assessment – Total 28 Local NGOs 3 Interna:onal NGOs 4 Ministries 16 Local Authori:es 3 UN 2 Nutri:on VeVng – Total 15 Local NGOs 9 Interna:onal NGOs 4 UN 2

Food Security Assessment Access and Field Monitoring Loca:ons FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment

Food Security Post‐Deyr 2012/13 Informa:on Sources

Food Security Assessment Interviews/ Secondary Data

Region FS Focus Group Discussions (Dec ‘12) Rural FGDs Urban FGD IDP FGD Bari 64 ‐ ‐ Nugal & North Mudug 60 ‐ ‐ Awdal/Galbeed 50 ‐ ‐ Togdheer 31 ‐ ‐ Sool 41 ‐ ‐ Sanaag 39 ‐ ‐ South Mudug 40 12 18 Galgadud 62 18 143 Hiran 63 18 18

• M. Shabelle

59 17 18

• L. Shabelle

98 18 ‐ Bay 60 18 18 Bakool 63 18 _ Gedo 85 18 18

• M. Juba

59 18 ‐

• L. Juba

54 18 ‐ Total 928 173 233

Region FS HH Surveys (Nov‐Dec ‘12) Urban IDP Se^lement Bari 451 974 Nugal & North Mudug 938 1,418 Awdal/Galbeed 900 947 Togdher 451 490 Sool 425 ‐ Sanaag 433 ‐ Banadir 450 750 4,048 4,579

Secondary Sources:

• Satellite Imagery Data
• SWALIM Land Cover and Land Use
• SWALIM/ FSNAU/ FEWS NET Rain Gauges
• Monthly Market Price and Labor wage data
• Rural Market Monitoring data
• Port and Cross‐border trade StaHsHcs
• Livelihood baseline studies
• UNHCR IDP populaHon esHmates

Deyr 2012/13 Respondents by Gender

Urban Surveys:

• 581 males and 2,991 females.
• HHs categories‐Urban North:
• 2,059 HHs dependent on men
• 1,021 HHs dependent on women
• 469 HHs dependent on both women and

men IDP se^lements:

• 3,068 HHs dependent on both men and

women

• 632 HHs dependent on women
• 547 HHs dependent on men

 For meaningful gender results, HHs have been grouped into three fundamental categories:  Households dependent on men

• r man for food or income to

buy food.  Households dependent on women or woman for food or income to buy food.  Households dependent on both woman and man for food

• r income to buy food.

Nutri:on Informa:on Sources

Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012

Region Rural livelihood surveys conducted Urban livelihood surveys conducted IDP surveys conducted Total No.

• f Surveys

Northwest, northeast 9 (W.Golis, E. Golis/NW, Agro‐p, Hawd, Sool plateau, Nugal valley,

• E. Golis/NE, Coastal deeh/NE

7 (Awdal, W. Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Bari, Nugal, 7 (Hargeisa, Burao, Berbera, Bossaso, Qardho, Garowe, Galkayo) 23 Central 2 (Hawd, Addun) 2 (Mudug, Galgadud) 1 (Dusamareb/Guriel) 5 South 7 (Beletweyn District, Mataban, Bay, Bakool pastoral, N. Gedo Pastora, agro‐past. and riverine) 2 (Mog, Afgoye) 5 (Mogadishu, Kismayo, Dolow, Dobley, Baidoa) 14 Total 18 11 13 42

 42 Nutri:on Surveys (based on WHZ, WHO GS 2006 )  Rapid MUAC assessments (8): Juba (3), South Gedo (3), Central coastal deeh (1), Cowpea belt (1)  Health Center Monitoring (HIS): Collected from 130 health faciliHes in accessible regions in the period Jul‐Dec’12.  Related Selec:ve Feeding Centre Data: obtained from UNICEF, WFP and partner agencies  Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deteriora:on)

• WHO & Somalia emergency weekly health updates, October‐January 2013)
• Food security, displacements data. (Sources: FSNAU, OCHA and UNHCR bulleHns).

CLIMATE

Deyr 2012/13 Rainfall Performance

TAMSAT RFE Percent Anomaly (Oct‐Dec)

Source : JRC TAMSAT

Overall Statement: Deyr 2012 rains started earlier than normal (early Oct). Rainfall performance was mixed in terms of amount, temporal distribuHon, and spaHal coverage across the country. The Oct to Dec rainfall esHmates compared to the Long Term Mean (1983‐ 2011) shows normal to above normal rainfall in most part of the country Moderate Hays rains (Dec‐Jan) were received in most of the Coastal areas of Bari region and Guban pastoral excluding Zeylac district in December 2012; No Hays rains precipitated in January 2013. Rainfall performance was poor in parts of Sanag, Sool regions, and north Gedo and Lower Juba agropastoral; Dry spell reported in late Nov and early Dec in most of the North, Central, Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions; Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Murjan reported in late October in Garowe and Eyl Districts.

Overall Statement: Improved rangeland (pasture and browse) condiHons, as well as water resources in most parts of the country. This is due to the effects of moderate to good Deyr 2012/13 and the Gu 2012 rains. However, compared to their ten year (2001‐2010) average, rangeland resources are sHll significantly below average in Juba, upper Gedo, Sool, Sanaag, Awdal and Guban pastoral areas of Waqooyi Galbeed.

CLIMATE

Vegeta:on Condi:ons in the Deyr 2012 Season

Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET

NDVI eMODIS Anomaly, December 21‐30, 2012

CLIMATE FORECAST

Hotter than Normal Dry Season (JFM) and Normal to Below Normal Long Rains (MAM)

ECMWF’s forecast surface temp anomalies (mm): Jan- Mar. 2013

• 1. Hotter than normal dry season expected across the region and especially the northern and

eastern sector (+1o to +2oC) Northern Kenya, South Somalia, central and western Ethiopia.

• 2. Long rains season (Mar – May), raises concerns for normal to below rainfall performance over

the eastern sector of the region, including parts of northeastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia.

ECMWF forecast rainfall anomalies (mm): Mar

• May 2013

CIVIL INSECURITY

Civil insecurity remains one of the key factors affecting the food security situation in many parts of Somalia. In spite of the increased control of the Federal Government/AMISOM in the South, armed confrontations, land mines, targeted killings still persist in most of the main towns of South- Central. Key Events and Impacts:

• Expansion of Somali Government /AMISOM controlled areas
• Clan fighting and revenge killings in Central
• Conflict b/w SL government and Khatumo group in the North

(Huddun/ Sool)

• Tensions over local government election results in Zeylac &

Awdal (Dec ‘12)

• Blockages in key towns in Bay, Bakool, Juba and Shabelle

regions affecting trade and population movements

• Improved trade and population movements in Mogadishu
• Inflow of Somali refugees from neighboring (Kenya) and other

countries

• Humanitarian access constraints continued in South-Central

Most Likely Scenario for January-June 2013:

• Increased government offensive in other parts of the South;

restricted humanitarian access; continued disruption of trade and movements in conflict induced-areas

MARKETS

Trends in Exchange Rates

 Somali Shilling (SoSh): stable during second half of 2012; appreciated from Dec ’11, parHcularly in Northeast (22%)  Somaliland Shilling (SlSh): moderate depreciaHon (15%) in value since Dec ‘11.

4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500

20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16

SlSh per US Dollar SoSh per US Dollar

Month

Baidoa Bossasso Galkayo Mogadishu Hargeisa

Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates

MARKETS

Import commodity prices:

• Stable prices since July 2012 in the South;
• Stable/modest decline in Northeast SoSh areas and Central

due to relaHvely stronger shilling

• Stable prices except for vegetable oil in the SISh zone due to

steady supply through Berbera Port. Factors Affec:ng Import Commodity Prices (July –Dec 2012)

• Decreasing local food prices
• Improved Mogadishu port acHviHes
• Improving security
• Stable SoSh

Imported Commodi:es (Diesel Price)

MARKETS

Comparison of Diesel Prices (Asia Dubai), Mogadishu and Bossaso

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16

Price per Litre (SLSH) Price per Litre (SoSH) Month

Regional Trends in Diesel Prices (SOSH/SLSH)

Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt Central Banadir NorthWest

Imported Commodi:es (Rice)

Comparison of Rice Prices (Bangkok FOB), Mogadishu and Bossaso

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16

Price per Kg(SLSH) Price per Kg (SoSH) Month

Regional Trends in Rice Prices (SOSH/SLSH)

Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt Central Banadir NorthWest

MARKETS

Imported Commodi:es (Sugar Price)

MARKETS

Comparison of Sugar Prices: Interna:onal (ISO), Mogadishu and Bossaso

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Price per Kg (SLSH) Price per Kg (SoSH) Month

Regional Trends in Sugar Prices (SOSH/SLSH)

Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt Central Banadir NorthWest

Imported Commodi:es (Veg. Oil and Wheat Flour Price)

MARKETS

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Price per Litre (SLSH) Price per Litre (SoSH) Month

Regional Trends in Vegetable Oil Prices (SOSH/SLSH)

Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt Central Banadir NorthWest 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16

Price per Kg (SLSH) Price per Kg (SoSH)

Month

Regional Trends in Wheat Flour Prices (SOSH/SLSH)

Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt Central Banadir NorthWest

Consumer Price Index

MARKETS

• Slight decline in CPI rates (7%) in

SoSh regions. The CPI is stable in northwestern parts of the country.

• Significant decrease (24%) in

annual inflation rates in the SoSh areas;

• Factors driving down the cost of

living in South-Central:

• Reduced local cereal (red

sorghum) prices

• Reduced/stable prices of

imported food

MARKETS

Likely Developments (Jan‐June 2013)

• Staple cereal prices are expected to decline (seasonal trend)

unHl March 2013 owing to increased supply from the recent Deyr harvest;

• Concerns: farm‐gate prices may not cover costs of

producHon

• RelaHve stability across the country may sustain the strength of

the SoSh, hence the stability in the price of food imports;

• An increase in cross border trade acHviHes is expected in light of

the gradual improvements in the security situaHon and road networks (end of rainy season).

• Average to good rangeland condiHons

(pasture and water) in most of the livelihoods except:

• North: Sool Plateau of Sanaag and Nugaal

Valley

• South and Central: north Gedo, Coastal

Deeh of Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba (poor)

• Normal livestock migraHon in most

livelihoods except in Sool Plateau and Nugaal valley

• Livestock migraHon is to remain within

normal range in the South even in the condiHons of below normal Gu (current forecast)

Rangeland Condi:ons and Livestock Migra:on

• Livestock body condi:on: Improved (average to

good) across all the livelihoods, except in west Guban

• Livestock prices: remained all Hme high and

increasing trend

• Produc:on and reproduc:on: Most of the

livestock species are either in the gestaHon or lactaHon period, except in west Guban and parts

• f Sool and Coastal Deeh (Bari and Central)
• Milk produc:on: Average in most of the
• livelihoods. ExcepHons are west Guban, Sool

Plateau and parts of Coastal Deeh (Bari and Central regions)

• Herd growth for the poor wealth: Increasing

trends for all species but holding of small ruminants and camle among the poor is sHll below baseline levels in most of the pastoral livelihoods

Poor sheep/goat Body condi:on, Guban, FSNAU, Dec’12 Good Camel Body condi:on, Addun, North Mudug, FSNAU, Dec’12

Regional Average Monthly Prices Ca^le (SoSh/SlSh)

Trends in Local Ca^le Prices

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Price per Head of Cattle (SLSH) Price per Head of Cattle (SOSH) Month

Regional Average Monthly Prices Cattle (SOSH/SLSH)

SorghumBelt Shabelle Valley Juba Valley NW (SLSH)

Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices

LIVESTOCK

Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in the South (SOSH) Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in Northern and Central Regions

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Price per Head of Goat (SOSH)

SorghumBelt Shabelle Valley Juba Valley

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 Dec-1 2 Mar-1 3 Jun-1 3 Sep-1 3 Dec-1 3 Mar-1 4 Jun-1 4 Sep-1 4 Dec-1 4 Mar-1 5 Jun-1 5 Sep-1 5 Dec-1 5 Mar-1 6 Jun-1 6 Sep-1 6 Dec-1 6 Price per Head of Goat (SLSH) Price per Head of Goat (SOSH)

NE Central NW (SLSH)

LIVESTOCK

Monthly Trends in Fresh Camel Milk Prices (SoSh/SlSh)

Trends in Fresh Camel and Ca^le Milk Prices

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 SlSh per Litre SoSh per Litre Month

SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley Central NE NW 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16

SlSh per Litre

SoSh per Litre

Month

SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley Central NW

Monthly Trend in Fresh Ca^le Milk Prices (SoSh/ SlSh)

Trends in 2012 Livestock Exports Through Berbera & Bossaso

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 Price Per Head (US$)

Livestock Exports (Heads) Thousands

Month Berber Berbera & Bossaso: Liv a & Bossaso: Livestoc estock Expor k Exports (Heads) ts (Heads) and Expor and Export Quality Goa t Quality Goat Prices (US$) t Prices (US$)

Camel Exports Cattle Exports Shoats Exports Hargesia Price Galkayo Price Bossaso Price Burao Price

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Number of Heads

July-Dec Livestock Exports Jan-June Livestock Exports 5-year Average (2007-2011)

Total Annual Livestock Exports

AGRICULTURE

Trends in Cereal Produc:on (South and Northwest)

Cereal ProducHon Trends in Northwest Deyr Cereal ProducHon Trends in Southern Somalia Annual Cereal ProducHon Trends in Southern Somalia

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 MT

Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 MT Deyr Gu Overall PWA 5 year Avrg

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 2010 2011 2012 MT

Maize Sorghum Pet Average

• South: Third highest Deyr cereal

produc:on since 1995(144% of Deyr avg for 1995‐2011); sorghum and maize producHon of about 143,000MT

• Red sorghum represents over two‐

thirds of the total producHon

• Northwest AP: Good Gu/Karan

(73,000MT) producHon of cereals (104% of PET Avg: 2010‐2011);

• White sorghum accounts for 88% of

the total cereal producHon

AGRICULTURE

Deyr 2012/13 Cereal Produc:on in Southern Somalia

Regions Deyr Off‐Season Maize: March ‐ April 2013 Maize (MT) Total Cereal (MT) Gedo 1000 1000 Total 1000 1000 Regions Deyr 2012 Produc:on in MT Deyr 2012 as % of Deyr 2011 Deyr 2012 as % of Deyr (1995‐2011) Deyr 2012 as % of 5YR average (2007‐2011) Maize Sorghum Total Cereal Bakool 1,000 8,000 9,000 78% 359% 222% Bay 6,000 51,000 57,000 93% 172% 145% Gedo 2,000 4,000 6,000 82% 107% 96% Hiran 2,000 6,000 8,000 128% 123% 240% Juba Dhexe (Middle) 4,000 3,000 7,000 107% 178% 154% Juba Hoose (Lower) 2,000 2,000 220% 171% 302% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 10,000 7,000 17,000 70% 141% 157% Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 20,000 17,000 37,000 55% 112% 145% Deyr 2011Total 47,000 96,000 143,000 77% 146% 151%

AGRICULTURE

Cereal Produc:on in Northwest

Gu‐Karan Cereal Produc:on Es:mates in Somaliland (North West) Regions Gu‐Karan 2012 Produc:on in MT Gu‐Karan 2012 as % of Gu‐Karan 2011 Gu‐Karan 2012 as % of Gu‐Karan PWA (1998‐2011) Gu‐Karan 2012 as % of 5 year average (2007‐2011) Maize Sorghum Total Cereal Awdal 1,000 15,000 17,000 121% 311% 183% Togdheer 4,000 4,000 572% 494% 279% Woqooyi Galbeed 6,000 45,000 52,000 97% 272% 185% Gu‐Karan 2012 Total 7,000 64,000 73,000 107% 288% 188%

Deyr 2012/13 Cereal Produc:on by Region Maize Produc:on Deyr 2012/13 by Region

AGRICULTURE

Regional Cereal (Maize and Sorghum) Contribu:ons in Southern Somalia

Sorghum Produc:on Deyr 2012/13 by Region

Bakool 6% Bay 40% Gedo 4% Hiraan 5% Juba Dhexe(Middle) 5% Juba Hoose(lower) 2% Shabelle Dhexe (middle) 12% Shabelle lower (hoose) 26%

Bakool 2% Bay 12% Gedo 4% Hiraan 4% Juba Dhexe(Middl e) 9% Juba Hoose(lower ) 5% Shabelle Dhexe (middle) 21% Shabelle lower (hoose) 43%

Bakool 8% Bay 54% Gedo 4% Hiraan 6% Juba Dhexe(Middle ) 3% Juba Hoose(lower) 0% Shabelle Dhexe (middle) 7% Shabelle lower (hoose) 18%

AGRICULTURE

Deyr 2012/13 Good Sorghum Crops

Good Sorghum Crops. KooHn, Wanlaweyn,

• L. Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. 2012

Good Sorghum Crop. Bulo Adde, Qansah Dheere,

• Bay. FSNAU, Dec. 2012

Good Maize Crop. Suryo, Garboharey, Gedo. FSNAU, Dec. 2012 Good Sorghum Crop Harvest. Dila, Baki, Awdal. FSNAU, Nov. 2012

AGRICULTURE

Deyr 2012/13 Other Crop Produc:on Es:mates in Somalia Estimated 51,000MT of other crops:

• Rice (1,500MT) – Middle Shabelle
• Cowpea (15,000MT) – Central (38%); Bay (24%);

Lower Shabelle (19%); the rest (M. Shabelle, Jubas, Bakool)

• Sesame (23,000MT) – L. Shabelle (46%); M. Juba

(35%); the rest (Bay, L. Juba, M. Shabelle)

• Groundnut (2,000MT) – Bay
• Onions (7,500MT) - Hiran (94%); Gedo (6%)
• Watermelon (2,000MT) – Hiran (84%); Gedo

(16%)

Good Sesame Crop. Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 Good Groundnut Crop. Hagarkaa, Baidoa,

• Bay. FSNAU, Dec. 2012

AGRICULTURE

Regional Trends in Cereal Prices and Agriculture Daily Rate

Trends in White Maize Prices [Shabelle & Juba Riverine] Trends in White Sorghum Prices [North West] Trends in Red Sorghum Price [Sorghum Belt]

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 SoSh Month

SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley

Trends in Agriculture Daily Labor Rate [Southern regions]

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Dec‐12 Mar‐13 Jun‐13 Sep‐13 Dec‐13 Mar‐14 Jun‐14 Sep‐14 Dec‐14 Mar‐15 Jun‐15 Sep‐15 Dec‐15 Mar‐16 Jun‐16 Sep‐16 Dec‐16 Price per Kg (SOSH) Month

Bardera (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Baidoa ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Huddur ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Beletweyne (White Sorghum 1kg)

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Dec‐12 Mar‐13 Jun‐13 Sep‐13 Dec‐13 Mar‐14 Jun‐14 Sep‐14 Dec‐14 Mar‐15 Jun‐15 Sep‐15 Dec‐15 Mar‐16 Jun‐16 Sep‐16 Dec‐16 Price per Kg (SOSH) Month

Jamame (White Maize 1kg) Jilib (White Maize 1kg) Qorioley (White Maize 1kg) Jowhar (White Maize 1kg)

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Dec‐12 Mar‐13 Jun‐13 Sep‐13 Dec‐13 Mar‐14 Jun‐14 Sep‐14 Dec‐14 Mar‐15 Jun‐15 Sep‐15 Dec‐15 Mar‐16 Jun‐16 Sep‐16 Dec‐16

Price Per Kg (SLSH) Month Hargeisa (White Sorghum 1kg) Borama (White Sorghum 1kg) Togwajale (White Sorghum 1kg) Burao (White Sorghum 1kg)

Projected Cereal Availability:

2013 Preliminary Cereal Balance Sheet (CBS) in ‘000’MT

33

• Total cereal requirement in Somalia is

estimated at 1 million tons based on 135kg per capita food needs

• Current CBS is based on Deyr 2012/13,

Gu-Karan 2012 harvests in NW and projections for Gu 2013 production (5yr avg), imports (3-yr avg), and food assistance (WFP plan for 2013).

• The total deficit of 21% in Jan-Dec 2013
• Current estimate does not include all

planned food assistance for Somalia

81 296 414 (250) food aid supply commercial import supply domesHc producHon deficit

NUTRITION SECTOR

Global, WHO GS, WHZ<‐2z scores and/or Oedema, (GAM) & Severe Acute Malnutri:on, WHO GS, WHZ & <‐3 and/or Oedema (SAM), Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012

• 1. North/Central: GAM is 10 – 14.9% in all rural and urban livelihoods except for W. Golis >15% (the latter is consistent with

national and Deyr median rate of 16.2% and 15.7%, respectively for 2001-2011); Sool Plateau, Urban (Sool, Togdheer) – 5-9.9%.

• 2. IDPs: GAM rates >15% except for Hargeisa, Garowe and Baidoa (10-14.9%). Mogadishu IDP has deteriorated to 16% from 9.6%.
• 3. South: GAM is above 15% in most of the assessed rural South (except for Juba pastoral, Beletweyne, Mataban, Mogadishu

which is lower). This is consistent with Deyr median rate.

• 4. Gender: Only in 2 of the 42 surveys, (Hawd/NE-Central and Bossaso IDPs) there is statistically significant difference between

GAM and child Sex and Age. More boys tend to be malnourished compared to girls. In Bossaso IDPs, younger children (<24 months) are significantly more malnourished, while in Hawd, it is the older children (>24 mths).

15 30 Agropastoralists of NW

• W. Golis/Guban
• E. Golis/NW
• E. Golis/NE

Nugal Valley Hawd (NW) Sool Plateau Coastal deeh/NE Hawd/NE,Central Addun/NE, Central Awdal Urban

• W. Galbeed Urban

Togdheer Urban Sool Urban Sanaag Urban Nugal Urban Mudug Urban Galgaduud Urban Hargeisa IDPs Burao IDPs Berbera IDPs Bossaso IDPs Qardho IDPs Garowe IDPs Galkayo IDPs Guriel/DusamarebIDP Dolo IDPs Dobley IDPs Kismayo IDPs Baidoa IDPs Mogadishu IDPs Afgoye Town Bay Agropastoral Mogadishu Town BakoolPast Beletweyne District Mataban District

• N. Gedo Pastoral
• N. Gedo Agro‐p
• N. Gedo riverine

North & Central Regions Southern Regions % acutely malnourished GAM SAM

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sool Plateau Addun Hawd/NW Coastal Deeh/NE East Golis/NE Nugal Valley West Golis/Guban Agro‐Pastoral of NW East Golis/NW Nugal Valley Hargeisa IDP Berbera IDP Hawd Addun Beletweyne District Mataban District Mogadishu Town Afgoye Town Bay Agropastoral Bakool Pastoral

• N. Gedo pastoral
• N. Gedo Agropastoral
• N. Gedo Riverine

Mogadishu IDPs Kismayo IDPs Dobley IDPs Dolo IDPs Dusamareb IDPs Galkayo IDPs Qardho IDPs Garowe IDPs Bossaso IDPs Berbera IDPs Burao IDPs Hargeisa IDPs Baidoa IDPs North Central South IDPs %

• Childhood diseases assessed by recall: Suspected malaria, pneumonia, diarrhea and measles
• Across the surveyed population groups, reported morbidity amongst at least 20% of the assessed

children, except for East Golis/NW, which is 16%

• Morbidity was highest in Beletweyne (53.2%), Mataban (50.3%), N. Gedo pastoral (52.5%),

Mogadishu IDPs (47.4%) and Bossaso IDPs (46.6%).

Morbidity (%) based on 2 week recall period, October‐December 2012

NUTRITION SECTOR

Seasonal Trends of Morbidity, Diarrhea and GAM, 2001‐2012

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

Gu Gu Gu Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Deyr Gu Deyr Gu DEyr 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

• M. & L. Juba Regions, 2003‐2012

GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

Gu Hagaa Hagaa Jilaal Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr 2002 2003 2006 2007 2009 2011 2012

Bay Region, 2002‐2012

GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea ‐10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

Hagaa Deyr Gu Hagaa Deyr Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr 2003 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012

Togdher Region, 2003‐2012

GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea

‐10.0% 10.0% 30.0% 50.0% 70.0% GU Hagaa Deyr Jilaal GU Hagaa Deyr Jilaal GU Hagaa Deyr Jilaal GU Hagaa Deyr Hagaa Jilaal GU Hagaa Deyr Jilaal GU Hagaa Deyr Jilaal GU Hagaa Deyr GU Deyr GU Deyr GU Deyr Gu Deyr 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Assessed Somali popula:ons, 2001‐2012

Overall morbidity Diarrhoea GAM

• Meta-data analysis (2001-2011) indicates significant association between reported morbidity &GAM (RR=1.37)
• Diarrhea posed the highest risk (RR=1.43)

NUTRITION SECTOR

Retrospec:ve (90 days) crude (CDR) and the under five (U5DR) per 10,000 per day, Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012

North: CDR < 0.5 (Acceptable situation based

• n UNICEF 2005 classification) in all

assessed population groups except, Qardho and Guriel IDPs (Alert - 0.5 and 0.85 respectively).

South: CDR is generally within Alert level (0.5-0.9), and below 0.92, the median for South for 2007-2011, except for Dolo IDPs (1.27) - Serious & Dobley IDPs (1.92) - Critical. Main cause of deaths (reported) is AWD and suspected pneumonia.

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 NW Agropastoral WGolis/Guban EGolis0712 (NW) East Golis/NE Nugal0712 Hawd (NW) Sool0712 Coastal deeh/NE Hawd/NE,Central Addun/NE, Central Hargeisa IDPs Burao IDPs Berbera IDPs Bossaso IDPs Qardho IDPs Garowe IDPs Galkayo IDPs Guriel/DusamarebIDP Dolo IDPs Dobley IDPs Kismayo IDPs Baidoa IDPs Mogadishu IDPs BayAgrop BakoolPast Afgoye Town Mogadishu Town Beletweyne District Mataban District NW/NE/Central Regions Southern Regions Death rate/10,000/day CDR U5DR

NUTRITION SECTOR

• GAM Rates: Improvements from Very CriHcal levels from July to December

2012 among pastoralists of W. Golis/Guban (Cri?cal) and Nugal Valley (Serious), and agropastoralists of Bay (Cri?cal). DeterioraHon in Mataban (Hiran) to Very Cri?cal.

• SAM Rates: Improvements to, or sustained Acceptable levels (<2.5%) except in

Hawd (NW), Addun (Central) ‐Alert (3.0‐3.1), N. Gedo agro‐pastoralists (3.8), Serious, Beletweyne (4.9), CriHcal, and Mataban (7.4), Very CriHcal. IDPs in Dolo (5.4), Dobley (5.1), Berbera (6.6) and Qardho (7.9) in CriHcal –Very CriHcal levels.

• Death rates: Crude (per 10,000 per day) are below emergency level of 2 across

Somalia; U5 (per 10,000 per day) are below emergency level of 4 across Somalia.

Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2013

NUTRITION SECTOR

Es:mated cases of acutely malnourished children (WHZ – WHO GS) National trends in estimated proportion acutely malnourished under five boys & girls (Aug ‘11- Jan’13) National level (1.5 million U5 year old boys & girls) August 2011 January 2012 August 2012 January 2013 Total acutely malnourished 450,000 (30%) 323,000 (22%) 236,000 (16%) 215,000 (14.5%) Total severely malnourished 190,000 (13%) 93,000 (6%) 54,000 (3.5%) 46,000 (3.1%)

12.2 10.8 8.0 7.6 7.3 7.0 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.7 1.5 1.3

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Banadir Bay Lower Juba Hiran Lower Shabelle Woqooye Galbeed Bakool Middle Juba Gedo Galgadud Middle Shabelle Togdher Bari Mudug Awdal Sanaag Sool Nugal Propor:on of na:onal cases % acutely malnourished % severely malnourished

NUTRITION SECTOR

* NutriHon surveys conducted: 60 (Aug’11), 60 (Jan’12), 46 (Aug’12) and 42 (Jan’13). Median GAM levels (2001‐2011) of season used to esHmate numbers acutely malnourished where surveys are not conducted.

Deyr 2012 total caseloads of malnourished by region

The nutri?on situa?on is likely to remain the same across the country in the coming three months except for:

• Sool Plateau: could deteriorate to Serious phase, consistent with worrying food security situaHon. and

seasonal levels

• Bakool, Hiran region, North Gedo regions are likely to be in CriHcal phase consistent with seasonal levels
• Shabelle region are likely to be within median levels, in Serious phase

*Current situaHon esHmates inferred from Oct‐Dec 2012 nutriHon assessments findings; NutriHon situaHon outlook, Feb‐Apr 2013 inferred from

current esHmates/median seasonal rates (2001‐2011), alongside with historical disease pa`erns and food security trends for February – April 2013 period)

August 2012 January 2013 Nutri:on Situa:on Es:mates, August 2012 & January 2013, and outlook, February‐April 2013 February‐April 2013 Outlook

NUTRITION SECTOR

41

INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF LIVELIHOODS

RURAL LIVELIHOODS

• Improved milk availability among most pastoral

households for consumpHon and sales

• Significantly improved Terms of Trade between

local quality goat and cereals due to low cereal prices and excepHonally high goat prices;

• Increased livestock holding among the poor in

most livelihoods BUT sHll below the baseline levels.

• In most pastoral areas in the North poor

households can meet food needs although some have small livelihood protecHon deficit, i.e. cannot meet all basic needs

• Food access is limited in Guban and parts of

Coastal Deeh of North and Central due to successive poor rains leading to:

• Below average to poor livestock condiHon
• Limited livestock asset holding

Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Rice to Goat

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16

Kg per Head

Central (Red Rice) NE(Red Rice) NW (Red Rice)

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Kg per Head

SorghumBelt (Red Sorghum) Juba Valley (White Maize) Shabelle Valley(White Maize)

Average Sh/goats, Dhusamareb, Galgadud region, FSNAU,

• Dec. 2012

Poor Body Condition, Guban, Zeylac, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 Average Camel Body Condition, Garbahaarey, Gedo,

• Dec. 2012

RURAL LIVELIHOODS

Deyr 2012/13 Photos

Good Cattle Good Body Condition, Hagar, Lower Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 2012

• Crop dependent poor households

in the agropastoral areas of Lower Juba have about 1‐2 months supply of cereal stock; 5‐6 months in L. Shabelle and Bay; while the rest 3‐4 months;

• Labour wages of the farming

communiHes increased in December 2012 compared to July 2012 and year ago (Dec’11) in most of southern agricultural areas;

• ToT daily labour wage/cereal is

favorable and higher than in July 2012 and the 5‐years average (2007‐2011)

RURAL LIVELIHOODS

Purchasing Power

5 10 15 20 25 30 Dec‐12 Mar‐13 Jun‐13 Sep‐13 Dec‐13 Mar‐14 Jun‐14 Sep‐14 Dec‐14 Mar‐15 Jun‐15 Sep‐15 Dec‐15 Mar‐16 Jun‐16 Sep‐16 Dec‐16 Kg per Daily Labour Wage Month

Bardera (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Baidoa ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Huddur ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Beletweyne (White Sorghum 1kg)

Sorghum Belt-Trends in TOT Labour to Cereal

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Dec‐12 Mar‐13 Jun‐13 Sep‐13 Dec‐13 Mar‐14 Jun‐14 Sep‐14 Dec‐14 Mar‐15 Jun‐15 Sep‐15 Dec‐15 Mar‐16 Jun‐16 Sep‐16 Dec‐16 Kg per Daily Labour Wage Month

Jamame (White Maize 1kg) Jilib (White Maize 1kg) Qorioley (White Maize 1kg) Jowhar (White Maize 1kg)

Shabelle & Juba Riverine‐TOT Labour to Cereal

RURAL LIVELIHOODS

Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis

0.00 10,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00 40,000.00 50,000.00 Baseline year Current year

Cash income (Nominal-000)SoSH

food aid/safety nets self‐employment #REF! #REF! livestock product sales milk/meat Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit 0.00 5,000.00 10,000.00 15,000.00 20,000.00 25,000.00 30,000.00 Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal‐000) SoSH food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales milk/meat Survival deficit Livelihoods protec?on deficit 0.00 10,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00 40,000.00 50,000.00 60,000.00 70,000.00 Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales 0.00 10,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00 40,000.00 50,000.00 60,000.00 70,000.00 Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales

Fig 2: Sool Plateau Outcome Analysis- Poor Households Non Cyclone Affected Areas Fig 5: Dawo Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 6: Nugal Valley Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 4: Addun Outcome Analysis-Poor Households

0.00 10,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00 40,000.00 50,000.00 60,000.00 70,000.00 Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH food aid/safety nets self‐employment 0.00 10,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00 40,000.00 50,000.00 60,000.00 70,000.00 Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales 0.00 10,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00 40,000.00 50,000.00 60,000.00 70,000.00 80,000.00 Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales milk/meat Survival Deficit 0.00 5,000.00 10,000.00 15,000.00 Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets

RURAL LIVELIHOODS

Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis

Fig 7: Hawd Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 5: Dawo Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 6: Nugal Valley Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 8:Northwest Agropastoral Outcome Analysis- Poor Households

0.00 1,000.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets 0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00 14,000.00 Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit 0.00 1,000.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 Baseline year Current year Cash income (Nominal-000) SoSH milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit

Fig 10: Agropastoral low potential Outcome Analysis- Poor Households Fig 9: Agropastoral High potetnial Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 11: Bakol Agropastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households

RURAL LIVELIHOODS

Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis

Fig 12: Togdher Agropastoral Outcome Analysis – Poor Household

0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00 14,000.00 16,000.00 18,000.00 Baseline year Current year

Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH

food aid/safety nets self‐employment #REF! livestock product sales milk/meat Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec?on Deficit

RURAL LIVELIHOODS

Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis

Fig 13: Southern Inland Pastoral Outcome Analysis- Poor Househlolds

URBAN LIVELIHOODS

Food Consump:on

• Food Consump:on Score (FCS): Improving

food consumpHon trend in the North and Banadir (less 20% of people with poor FCS) since Gu 2012;

• Poor to borderline food consumpHon in most
• f the Women Dependent HHs (WDH);
• Coping strategy index (CSI): Stable to

decreasing from Gu 2012 in most regions but increased slightly in Banadir;

• Out of the ≤10% of households adopHng

severe coping strategies WDH form the majority

• Livelihood

change: increased producHve assets from last Gu in both WD and MDH; no asset sales reported across the country; people are mostly employing insurance coping strategies

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

North & Banaadir: Food Consump:on

acceptable borderline poor

URBAN LIVELIHOODS

Contribu:ng Factors: Food Access and Availability

• Food available in most of the urban

markets (local producHon, imports and humanitarian assistance);

• Food access: Food is mainly obtained

through cash purchase followed by credit;

• ≥80% of the urban households in the

North and Banadir have one income source, while 1‐3 sources in the South‐ Central

• ToT (labour wage to cereal) is higher than

5Yr Avg (2007‐2011);

• ConHnued decline in the cost of the

Minimum Basket in most regions (below Gu and Deyr 2012 levels)

Internally Displaced Persons in Se^lements (IDP) Food Security Outcomes

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% % of households

North & Banaadir: Poor Food Consump:on

High proportion of IDPs have poor food consumption; 34-58% in NW and 44-74% in the NE Low asset diversity among the IDPs; mostly one asset type per household: either a wheelbarrow or a mobile phone or a radio or skilled work tools Low diversity of income sources: mostly one income sources per household; exception is Baidoa (3 income sources - self-employment, casual labour and social support)

Internally Displaced Persons in Se^lements (IDP) IPC: Contribu:ng Factors

66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 76% 78% 80% % food expenditure

IDP: Food Expenditure (%)

High food expenditure among the IDPs with limited ability to meet non‐food expenditures (78‐80% of expenditure) Main sources of income: either of casual labour, self‐employment; pemy trade; skilled labour (North and Banaadir) High dependency on loans for food in most of assessed IDPs – increased from July 2012 Cri?cal nutriHon situaHon in most IDP semlements assessed except Hargeisa, Garowe, Baidoa (Serious)

Current Food Security Phase Classifica:ons Summary Results

IPC Classifica:on

Rural, Urban & IDP popula:on in crisis (Current)

Region UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population UNDP 2005 Rural Population Urban in Stressed Rural in Stressed Urban in Crisis Rural in Crisis Urban in Emergency Rural in Emergency Total in Crisis and Emergency as % of Total population North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 7,000 45,000 12,000 4 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 22,000 48,000 32,000 4,000 5 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 22,000 75,000 1,000 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 13,000 65,000 5,000 7,000 7,000 7 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 5,000 37,000 6,000 4 Bari 367,638 179,633 188,005 16,000 56,000 14,000 4 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 90,592 6,000 25,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 4 Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 91,000 351,000 54,000 32,000 8,000 4 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 13,000 63,000 2,000 11,000 24,000 11 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 22,000 67,000 13,000 25,000 12 Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 35,000 130,000 2,000 24,000 49,000 11 South Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 28,000 89,000 12,000 4,000 5 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 117,000 5,000 46,000 10 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 186,000 35,000 4 Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 12,000 96,000 12,000 13,000 8 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 37,000 162,000 16,000 3 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 24,000 84,000 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 54,739 184,138 12,000 58,000 12,000 8,000 8 Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 124,682 261,108 22,000 73,000 22,000 16,000 10 Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 200,000 865,000 81,000 70,000 50,000 6 Banadir 901,183 901,183

• 15,000
• 15,000
• 2

Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 341,000 1,346,000 152,000 126,000 107,000 5

Assessed and Con:ngency Popula:on in Crisis and Emergency Number affected % of Total popula:on Distribu:on of popula:ons in crisis Assessed Urban populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 152,000 2 15% Assessed Rural populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 233,000 3 23% IDP in semlements* (out of UNHCR 1.1 million) to avoid double counHng 615,000 8 62% EsHmated Rural, Urban and IDP populaHon in crisis 1,000,000 13 100%

IPC CLASSIFICATION

Rural, Urban & IDP Popula:on in Crisis (Projected)

Region UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population UNDP 2005 Rural Population Urban in Stressed Rural in Stressed Urban in Crisis Rural in Crisis Urban in Emergency Rural in Emergency Total in Crisis and Emergency as % of Total population North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 7,000 45,000 12,000 4 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 22,000 48,000 32,000 4,000 5 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 22,000 75,000 1,000 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 13,000 65,000 5,000 7,000 7,000 7 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 5,000 37,000 6,000 4 Bari 367,638 179,633 188,005 16,000 56,000 14,000 4 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 90,592 6,000 25,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 4 Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 91,000 351,000 54,000 32,000 8,000 4 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 13,000 63,000 2,000 11,000 24,000 11 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 22,000 67,000 13,000 25,000 12 Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 35,000 130,000 2,000 24,000 49,000 11 South Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 28,000 89,000 12,000 4,000 5 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 117,000 5,000 46,000 10 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 212,000 35,000 21,000 7 Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 12,000 86,000 12,000 22,000 11 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 37,000 146,000 31,000 5 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 24,000 84,000 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 54,739 184,138 12,000 57,000 12,000 9,000 9 Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 124,682 261,108 22,000 69,000 22,000 20,000 11 Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 200,000 860,000 81,000 120,000 50,000 7 Banadir 901,183 901,183

• 15,000
• 15,000
• 2

Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 341,000 1,341,000 152,000 176,000 107,000 6

Assessed and Con:ngency Popula:on in Crisis and Emergency Number affected % of Total popula:on Distribu:on of popula:ons in crisis Assessed Urban populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 152,000 2 14% Assessed Rural populaHon in Crisis and Emergency 283,000 4 27% IDP in semlements* (out of UNHCR 1.1million) to avoid double counHng 615,000 8 59% EsHmated Rural, Urban and IDP populaHon in crisis 1,050,000 14 100%

IPC CLASSIFICATION

Distribu:on of Popula:ons in Crisis by Livelihood

Projected Current

Livelihood system Es:mated Popula:on by Livelihood Zones Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency Popula:on in Crisis as% of Total Agro‐Pastoral 1,987,062 615,000 115,000 115,000 41 Fishing 17,779 Pastoral 2,136,657 586,000 51,000 8,000 59,000 21 Riverine 366,683 140,000 10,000 10,000 4 DesHtute pastoral 98,906 99,000 99,000 35 Grand Total 4,607,086 1,341,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100 Livelihood system Es:mated Popula:on by Livelihood Zones Stressed Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency Popula:on in Crisis as% of Total Agro‐Pastoral 1,987,062 620,000 63,000 63,000 27 Fishing 17,779 Pastoral 2,136,657 586,000 53,000 7,000 60,000 26 Riverine 366,683 140,000 10,000 10,000 4 DesHtute pastoral 98,906 100,000 100,000 43 Grand Total 4,607,086 1,346,000 126,000 107,000 233,000 100

IPC CLASSIFICATION

Distribu:on of Popula:ons in Crisis by Wealth Groups (Projected)

Rural Stressed Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency Popula:on in Crisis as% of Total Poor 1,130,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100 Middle 211,000 Be^er‐off Grand Total 1,341,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100 Urban Stressed Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency Popula:on in Crisis as% of Total Poor 341,000 152,000 152,000 100 Middle Be^er‐off Grand Total 341,000 152,000 152,000 100

IPC CLASSIFICATION

Progression of Populations in Crisis by Year (Projected)

Jan-Jun '09 Jul-Dec '09 Jan-Jun '10 Jul-Dec '10 Jan-Jun '11 Jul-Dec '11 Apr-Jun '12 Aug-Dec '12 Jan-Jun '13 increase/ decrease from last season Urban 705,000 655,000 580,000 310,000 475,000 585,000 550,000 530,000 152,000

• 71%

Rural 1,215,000 1,435,000 1,255,000 785,000 1,005,000 2,550,000 1,160,000 790,000 283,000

• 64%

IDPs (UNHCR) 1,295,000 1,550,000 1,390,000 1,410,000 1,465,000 1,465,000 1,360,000 1,360,000 1,100,000

• 19%

Adjusted IDP to avoid double counting in Rural IPC 850,000 850,000 850,000 850,000 910,000 910,000 800,000 800,000 615,000 23% Total 2,770,000 2,940,000 2,685,000 1,945,000 2,390,000 4,045,000 2,510,000 2,120,000 1,050,000

• 50%

IPC Map, Feb – Jun 2013 IPC Map, Feb 1st 2013 IPC Map, Aug ‐ Dec 2012

IPC CLASSIFICATION

Progression of the Food Security Situa:on Aug 2012‐ Jun 2013

Key Messages

• The numbers of popula:on in crisis (IPC Phase 3 and 4) in post Deyr 2012/13 reduced by over 50%

from the post Gu 2012 (Feb‐Jun 2012) due to improved access and availability of food. In most areas poor food uHlisaHon (e.g. lack of safe water, feeding pracHces for children, etc.) remains a major limiHng factor of food security

• In the projec:on period up to June 2013, 1.05 million people are es:mated in acute food insecurity

IPC Phases 3 and 4; this indicates a slight deterioraHon from the current situaHon (Feb 1, 2013) of a total of 1.0 million people in crisis (IPC Phases 3 and 4) na:onwide.

• 1.3mln people are also es:mated in acute food insecurity IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), of which about

80% are in the South. Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2) implies that at least 20% of the populaHon in the analysed area can meet food needs but is not able to cover some essenHal non‐food needs and has reduced ability to invest in livelihoods

• Majority of IDP semlements are in Emergency situaHon due to high morbidity and limited food access;

high malnutriHon rates and elevated death rates in Alert to Cri?cal (5 IDP semlements, o/w 4 in the South‐Central) are evident in these semlements

• A total of 215,000 (14.3% of 1.5m) children <5 are acutely malnourished, of which two‐thirds are in

the South; Overall nutri?on situa?on is likely to remain unchanged across the country in the coming three months

Key Messages

Assump:on for Projec:ons (Feb‐Jun 2013)

• Gu rains are likely to be normal to below normal affecHng marginal rain‐fed

maize cropping in southern agropastoral areas of the country.

• Limited access to water for livestock is likely in parts of northern regions such as

Sool Plateau and parts of Nugal Valley during Jilaal dry season (Jan‐Mar)

• Food at household level (milk and cereal stocks) as well as seasonal farm job
• pportuniHes for poor farmers will be available in the projecHon period;
• Cereal prices will follow a seasonal trend as a result of good Deyr harvest and

anHcipated supplies through humanitarian assistance and imports (port and cross‐border)

• Insecurity will persist (although reduced) in South‐Central causing disrupHons of

food supply into the markets, limiHng humanitarian access and causing displacements

• Food security classificaHon is likely to remain unchanged between now and June

2013; But current projecHon assumpHon will be reviewed in March‐April based

• n updated informaHon on climate performance; humanitarian intervenHons;

security condiHons

Key messages

Required Response

• Lifesaving responses to the populaHon in Emergency is a priority
• ProtecHng livelihoods and strengthening disaster risk reducHon

and miHgaHon through: strengthen exisHng public services and community based resources and assets that serve to protect vulnerable populaHons from falling into crisis.

• Building resilience of vulnerable poor households

and addressing underlying causes of high malnutriHon (lack of safe water and sanitaHon, caring/ feeding pracHces, etc.) to reduce the risks of food and nutriHon insecurity

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