Post Deyr 2012/13 February 1st, 2013 Technical Donors Partner - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Information for Better Livelihoods Post Deyr 2012/13 February 1st, 2013 Technical Donors Partner Swiss Agency for Development and CooperaHon SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Overall Timeline FSNAU/Partner Planning Meeting (Nairobi) November 28, 2012 Regional Planning Meetings (Field) December 17-18, 2012 Fieldwork December 19 – 28, 2012 Regional Analysis Workshops (Field) December 31, 2012 - January 4, 2013 All Team Analysis Workshops (Hargeysa) January 7 – 18, 2013 Vetting Meetings January 22 (Nut) & 28 (FS), 2013 Release of Results Post- Deyr 2012/13 Presentation of Findings and February 1, 2013 Technical Release Regional Presentations in Somalia February 2013 Technical Series Reports February 21 (Nut) & 25 (FS), 2013

FSNAU Deyr 20 12/13 Assessment Partner Par:cipa:on Total Number of Partners Par:cipa:ng in Field Assessments and Analysis Workshop and VeVng – Total‐133 Food Security Field Assessment – Total 61 Nutri:on Field Assessment – Total 28 Na:onal Ins:tu:ons 2 Local NGOs 3 Local NGOs 11 Interna:onal NGOs 4 Interna:onal NGOs 7 Ministries 16 Ministries 12 Local Authori:es 3 FEWS NET 3 UN 2 UN 4 Enumerators 8 Focal Points 15 Analysis Workshop – Total 29 Nutri:on VeVng – Total 15 Local NGOs 9 FEWS NET NAIROBI 4 Interna:onal NGOs 4 WFP 5 UN 2 HADMA 2 FAO Pales:ne 1 FAO Regional 1 FSC 2 Government Focal Points ( Somaliland and Puntland ) 15

FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Food Security Assessment Access and Field Monitoring Loca:ons

Food Security Post‐ Deyr 2012/13 Informa:on Sources Food Security Assessment Interviews/ Secondary Data FS Focus Group Discussions (Dec ‘12) FS HH Surveys (Nov‐Dec ‘12) Rural FGDs Urban FGD IDP FGD Region Urban IDP Se^lement Region Bari Bari 64 ‐ ‐ 451 974 Nugal & North Mudug 60 ‐ ‐ Nugal & North Awdal/Galbeed 50 ‐ ‐ Mudug 938 1,418 Togdheer 31 ‐ ‐ Sool 41 ‐ ‐ Awdal/Galbeed 900 947 Sanaag 39 ‐ ‐ Togdher South Mudug 40 12 18 451 490 Galgadud 62 18 143 Sool 425 ‐ Hiran 63 18 18 Sanaag 433 ‐ M. Shabelle 59 17 18 Banadir 450 750 L. Shabelle 98 18 ‐ Bay 4,048 4,579 60 18 18 Bakool 63 18 _ Secondary Sources: Gedo 85 18 18 Satellite Imagery Data M. Juba • 59 18 ‐ L. Juba SWALIM Land Cover and Land Use • 54 18 ‐ SWALIM/ FSNAU/ FEWS NET Rain Gauges Total 928 173 233 • Monthly Market Price and Labor wage data • Rural Market Monitoring data • Port and Cross‐border trade StaHsHcs • Livelihood baseline studies • UNHCR IDP populaHon esHmates •

Deyr 2012/13 Respondents by Gender Urban Surveys:  For meaningful gender results, HHs have been grouped into 581 males and 2,991 females.  three fundamental categories: HHs categories‐Urban North:  o 2,059 HHs dependent on men  Households dependent on men or man for food or income to o 1,021 HHs dependent on women buy food. o 469 HHs dependent on both women and men  Households dependent on women or woman for food or IDP se^lements: income to buy food. 3,068 HHs dependent on both men and   Households dependent on women both woman and man for food 632 HHs dependent on women  or income to buy food. 547 HHs dependent on men 

Nutri:on Informa:on Sources Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012 Region Rural livelihood surveys Urban livelihood IDP surveys Total No. conducted surveys conducted conducted of Surveys Northwest, 9 7 7 23 northeast (W.Golis, E. Golis/NW, Agro‐p, (Awdal, W. Galbeed, (Hargeisa, Burao, Hawd, Sool plateau, Nugal valley, Togdheer, Sool, Berbera, Bossaso, E. Golis/NE, Coastal deeh/NE Sanaag, Bari, Nugal, Qardho, Garowe, Galkayo) Central 2 2 1 (Dusamareb/Guriel) 5 (Hawd, Addun) (Mudug, Galgadud) South 7 2 5 14 (Beletweyn District, Mataban, Bay, (Mog, Afgoye) (Mogadishu, Kismayo, Bakool pastoral, N. Gedo Pastora, Dolow, Dobley, Baidoa) agro‐past. and riverine) Total 18 11 13 42  42 Nutri:on Surveys (based on WHZ, WHO GS 2006 )  Rapid MUAC assessments (8): Juba (3), South Gedo (3), Central coastal deeh (1), Cowpea belt (1)  Health Center Monitoring (HIS): Collected from 130 health faciliHes in accessible regions in the period Jul‐Dec ’ 12.  Related Selec:ve Feeding Centre Data: obtained from UNICEF, WFP and partner agencies  Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deteriora:on) • W HO & Somalia emergency weekly health updates, October‐January 2013) • Food security, displacements data. (Sources: FSNAU, OCHA and UNHCR bulleHns).

CLIMATE Deyr 2012/13 Rainfall Performance Overall Statement: Deyr 2012 rains started earlier than TAMSAT RFE Percent Anomaly (Oct‐Dec) normal (early Oct). Rainfall performance was mixed in terms of amount, temporal distribuHon, and spaHal coverage across the country. The Oct to Dec rainfall esHmates compared to the Long Term Mean (1983‐ 2011) shows normal to above normal rainfall in most part of the country Moderate Hays rains (Dec‐Jan) were received in most of the Coastal areas of Bari region and Guban pastoral excluding Zeylac district in December 2012; No Hays rains precipitated in January 2013. Rainfall performance was poor in parts of Sanag , Sool regions , and north Gedo and Lower Juba agropastoral ; Dry spell reported in late Nov and early Dec in most of the North, Central, Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions; Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Murjan reported in late Source : JRC TAMSAT October in Garowe and Eyl Districts.

CLIMATE Vegeta:on Condi:ons in the Deyr 2012 Season NDVI eMODIS Anomaly, December 21‐30, 2012 Overall Statement: Improved rangeland (pasture and browse) condiHons, as well as water resources in most parts of the country. This is due to the effects of moderate to good Deyr 2012/13 and the Gu 2012 rains. However, compared to their ten year (2001‐2010) average, rangeland resources are sHll significantly below average in Juba, upper Gedo, Sool, Sanaag, Awdal and Guban pastoral areas of Waqooyi Galbeed. Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET

CLIMATE FORECAST Hotter than Normal Dry Season (JFM) and Normal to Below Normal Long Rains (MAM) 1. Hotter than normal dry season expected across the region and especially the northern and eastern sector (+1 o to +2 o C) Northern Kenya, South Somalia, central and western Ethiopia. 2. Long rains season (Mar – May), raises concerns for normal to below rainfall performance over the eastern sector of the region, including parts of northeastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia. ECMWF ’ s forecast surface temp anomalies (mm): ECMWF forecast rainfall anomalies (mm): Mar - May 2013 Jan- Mar. 2013

CIVIL INSECURITY Civil insecurity remains one of the key factors affecting the food security situation in many parts of Somalia. In spite of the increased control of the Federal Government/AMISOM in the South, armed confrontations, land mines, targeted killings still persist in most of the main towns of South- Central. Key Events and Impacts:  Expansion of Somali Government /AMISOM controlled areas  Clan fighting and revenge killings in Central  Conflict b/w SL government and Khatumo group in the North (Huddun/ Sool)  Tensions over local government election results in Zeylac & Awdal (Dec ‘ 12)  Blockages in key towns in Bay, Bakool, Juba and Shabelle regions affecting trade and population movements  Improved trade and population movements in Mogadishu  Inflow of Somali refugees from neighboring (Kenya) and other countries  Humanitarian access constraints continued in South-Central Most Likely Scenario for January-June 2013:  Increased government offensive in other parts of the South; restricted humanitarian access; continued disruption of trade and movements in conflict induced-areas

MARKETS Trends in Exchange Rates 40,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 35,000 SlSh per US Dollar Baidoa Bossasso Galkayo Mogadishu Hargeisa 7,000 SoSh per US Dollar 6,500 30,000 6,000 5,500 25,000 5,000 4,500 20,000 4,000 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Month  Somali Shilling (SoSh): stable during second half of 2012; appreciated from Dec ’11, parHcularly in Northeast (22%)  Somaliland Shilling (SlSh): moderate depreciaHon (15%) in value since Dec ‘ 11.

MARKETS Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates Import commodity prices: • Stable prices since July 2012 in the South; • Stable/modest decline in Northeast SoSh areas and Central due to relaHvely stronger shilling • Stable prices except for vegetable oil in the SISh zone due to steady supply through Berbera Port. Factors Affec:ng Import Commodity Prices (July –Dec 2012) • Decreasing local food prices • Improved Mogadishu port acHviHes • Improving security • Stable SoSh

MARKETS Imported Commodi:es (Diesel Price) Regional Trends in Diesel Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 60,000 8,000 7,000 50,000 Price per Litre (SLSH) 6,000 Price per Litre (SoSH) 40,000 5,000 30,000 4,000 3,000 20,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt 2,000 Central Banadir 10,000 1,000 NorthWest 0 0 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Jun-15 Month Comparison of Diesel Prices (Asia Dubai), Mogadishu and Bossaso