Post Deyr 09/10 Assessment A Analysis l i FSEDC Meeting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia

Post Deyr ’ 09/10 Assessment A l i Analysis

FSEDC Meeting

January 29, 2010

Nairobi, Kenya

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

FSNAU Post Deyr ’09/10 Assessment

Overall Timeline

FSNAU/Partner Planning Meeting (Nairobi) December 7 Regional Planning Meetings (Field) December 21 - 22 Fieldwork Dec 23 Jan 5 Fieldwork Dec 23 – Jan 5 Regional Analysis Workshops (Field) January 6 - 8 All Team Analysis Workshops (Nairobi) January 11 - 16 All Team Analysis Workshops (Nairobi) January 11 16 Vetting Meetings January 25 and 27 Release of Results SSS Special Presentation January 29 Somalia Regional Presentations From February 1 Press Release February 1 Special Food Security & Nutrition Brief February 12 Technical Series Reports February 19 and 26

FSNAU Deyr ’09/10 Assessment

Partner Participation p

NGO Government UN & Int’l TOTAL

Num ber of People Participating by Agency Food Security Field Assessm ent - Total 8 2

NGO Government UN & Int l TOTAL Local Int’l Ministries Local Authorities Gedo 6 2 4 12 Bakol 1 2 1 4

Total Num ber of Participating Partner Agencies ( FS + Nut) 8 6

Bakol 1 2 1 4 Bay 1 2 3 Central Region 8 1 1 10 Hiran 1 1 2 N th t 4 1 13 6 24

Local NGOs 32 Int’l NGO’s 15 Local Authority 11 Minist ies 24

Northeast 4 1 13 6 24 Northwest 2 11 3 16 Juba Valley 2 1 3 Middle Shabelle

Ministries 24 UN 4 Total Num ber of People Field (FS) & W k h T l 75

Lower Shabelle Total 23 6 24 9 12 74

l i k h l (FS) & Workshop – Total 75 Local Authority 9 Ministries 24 Local NGOs 23 Analysis W orkshop – Total 17 FEWSNET 3 WFP 10 OCHA 2 Local NGOs 23 International NGOs 5 UN Agencies 13 Consultant 1 OCHA 2 HORN RELIEF 2

Deyr ’09/10 Assessment Assessment Access and Field Monitoring Locations

A S t A l i A.Sector Analysis

Summary Results Summary Results

Climate

Performance of the Deyr ’09/10 Rains

Deyr ’09/10 Seasonal Rains Deyr 09/10 Seasonal Rains

• Started early (late September/ early October)
• Ended early - mid October in Central, Northeast and parts of Northwest.

O ll P f Th ll l f i d l l l b Overall Performance -The overall seasonal performance was mixed; largely normal to above normal in most of the South, but below normal to very poor in Central, Northeast and parts of the Northwest. Areas of Poor Rainfall: Hiran, parts of Galgadud and Mudug, Togdheer, Sanaag and northern parts of Bari Below normal: pockets of Gedo, and northern parts of Bakool, coastal areas of Lower J b Juba Areas of Normal to Above Normal Rainfall: key cropping regions of Bay, Juba and Shabelle (except coastal areas), Cowpea Belt (except coastal areas), Cowpea Belt Karan and Hays Seasonal Rains in the North: Poor throughout Northwest. Exceptions are parts of Gebiley and Borama districts. Poor throughout Northwest. Exceptions are parts of Gebiley and Borama districts. Good Hays rains in parts of Bari region.

Climate

Deyr ’09/10 Overall Rainfall Performance

Cumulative rainfall (mm) Oct – Dec. ‘09 Percent of normal rainfall Oct – Dec. ‘09

Above normal rainfall in most of the south led to improved crop and rangeland condition.

Climate

Deyr ’09/10 Vegetation Condition y g

NDVI, December 2009

NDVI November 2009 difference from LTM

Standardized difference from LTA

1 2 3 cores RFE Elafweyn NDVI Elafweyn 70% range

• 3
• 2
• 1

gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr Z-sc 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year

In most of the central regions, North and Northeast, vegetation conditions remain poor; Areas which received initial Deyr rains like Sool and Nugaal regions received abnormal pastoral in-migration; Rangeland resources may not be sufficient to support livestock through April.

Climate

Deepening Drought in the Hawd and Deepening Drought in the Hawd and Addun Pastoral of Central regions.

3

Standardized difference from LTA

RFE Dusamareb NDVI Dusamareb 1 2

• res

70% range

• 2
• 1

Z-sco

• 3

gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr 1982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 Year

Civil Insecurity

Civil Insecurity Trends (Jul-Dec. ‘09)

IDP Movements in Somalia Sep '09 - Jan. '10

Sustained and increasing civil insecurity Mogadishu, Juba regions, Bakool, Hiran, Galgaduud and Mudug Emerging/Increasing incidents in Northern regions

65,000 75,000

Emerging/Increasing incidents in Northern regions Targeting prominent figures, attacks on IDPs in the Northeast Uncertainty in the Northwest (elections, risks of

45,000 55,000

ber Flood Livelihood IDP return

Uncertainty in the Northwest (elections, risks of suicide activities, targeting government officials) Key Events Since July ’09

25,000 35,000

Numb Clan conflict Insecurity Drought

Continued violence in Mogadishu (Opposing groups against TFG/AMISOM) Clashes among TFG opposing militias active in

5,000 15,000

Forced return Eviction

Clashes among TFG opposing militias active in Juba, Hiran and Central regions Emerging and increasing insecurity in Puntland (bombings, killings, targeting IDPs, etc.)

(5,000)

Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10

Months

( g g g g )

Source: UNHCR, 2009

Civil Insecurity

Key Events Since July ’09 – Continued Ongoing & Likely to Increase: Clan conflicts and tensions over natural resources in Hiran and Middle Shabelle (Mahaday/Jalalaqsi), Harardhere and Galkayo (Central) Direct Impacts

• Human deaths, injuries and other human rights

abuses f ( & ) ( ) Suicide attack on the university graduation ceremony in Mogadishu hotel (huge casualties) Build up and mobilization of military operations

• Destruction of assets (public & private property)
• Further population displacements – current

number 1.4 million IDPs Di t t ti f h it i k d Build-up and mobilization of military operations (Central, Hiran, Bakool, Gedo and Juba regions) Targeting of humanitarian activities (staff

• Direct targeting of humanitarian work and

further reduction of aid workers and responses I di t I t Targeting of humanitarian activities (staff killings, office lootings, restriction of humanitarian activities) Worsening and reducing humanitarian access Indirect Impact:

• Disruptions of trade within the country and

across regional borders (e.g. Ethiopia and Kenya) and likely price increase (pressures, requests), particularly in the South and Central Sea piracy: about 18 ships hijacked out of b t 60 tt t i J l t t l hij ki f Kenya) and likely price increase

• Restrictions on livestock migration between

clan boundaries, particularly in Hiran and Middle Shabelle about 60 attempts since July - total hijacking of 45 ships reported in 2009

• Reduced access to humanitarian aid

Civil Insecurity

Most Likely Scenario (Jan-June ’10)

I d lik lih d f f th f t ti Increased likelihood of further confrontation (TFG / AMISOM Vs opposing militias and among the opposing militias) Continued and renewed conflicts Continued population displacements Looting and destruction of properties Continued human rights abuses Continued human rights abuses Increased number of checkpoints Disruption of production activities Closure of Kenyan border (cross-border trade) Main Areas of Risk: Mogadishu, Bay, Bakool, g , y, , Juba regions, Gedo Hiran, Galgadud, Mudug including Galkacyo Main Impact: Disruption in urban livelihoods and trade movement Possible escalation of insecurity trade movement. Possible escalation of insecurity in rural zones.

Livestock

Somalia: Rangeland Somalia: Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration Dec ‘09

Livestock Sector

Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

C ti C l i /kiddi Milk d ti Expected calving/ Trends in Herd Size (Jun ‘10) Region Conception (Deyr ’09/10) Calving/kidding (Deyr ’09/10) Milk production (Deyr ’09/10) Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ‘10 Trends in Herd Size (Jun 10) Livelihoods Livestock species Gedo Camel & Cattle: Medium Sheep/Goats: High Camel: Medium Cattle: Low Sheep/Goats: South: Low South: Camel: Average Cattle/Sh/Goats: Poor Camel: low Cattle: None Sh/goats: Medium Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Cattle: Increased (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increased (Below Baseline) High South: Low North: None Poor North: Camel: Average Cattle: poor Sh/Goats: None Medium Southern Agro-pastoral Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Cattle: Increased (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increased (Below Baseline) Dawa Pastoral Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Cattle: Same (Below Baseline) Sh / t I d (B l B li ) Sheep/goats: Increased (Below Baseline) Juba Camel: Medium to High Cattle: Medium Sheep/Goats: Medium to Camel: Medium Cattle: Low Sheep/Goats: Medium to high Camel: Above average Cattle: Poor Sheep/Goat: Average Camel: Medium Cattle: Medium Sheep/Goats: Medium to High Southeast Pastoral Cattle: Increased (Near Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increased (as Baseline) Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Increase (Same as Baseline) Cattle: Increased (Below Baseline) Sh / t I (B l B li ) Medium to high (Hagaa) Average Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline) Juba Agro-pastoral Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline) Camel: Low Camel: Medium Camel: Medium Camel: Low Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Same (Below Baseline) Cattle: Decreased ( Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline) Bakool Cattle: None Sh/Goats: High Cattle: Medium Sh/Goats: Medium Cattle: Low Sh/Goats: Low Cattle: None Sh/Goats: High Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline) B/Bakool Agro-pastoral Cattle: Increased (Same as Baseline) Cattle: Increased ( Below baseline) Sheep/goats: Increased (Below Baseline) Bay Camel: Medium Cattle: Medium Camel: Medium Cattle: Medium Camel: Good Cattle: Good Camel: Low Cattle: Medium B/Bakool Agro-pastoral Cattle: Increased (Same as Baseline) Cattle: Increased ( Below baseline) Sh/Goats: High Sh/Goats: Medium Cattle: Good Sh/Goats: Low Sh/Goats: High Cattle: Increased ( Below baseline) Sheep/goats: Increased (Below Baseline) M/L Shabelle L/Sh: Average for all species M.Sh: Camel/Cattle: L/Sh: Average for all species M.Sh: M/Sh: Camel : Medium M/Sh: Camel: Medium Cattle/sh/goats: Low M/Sh: Camel : Medium Sh/goats: Medium Shabelle Agro-pastoral L/Shabelle: Increased all species M/Shabelle: Camel: increase Cattle/Goats: Decreased (high off-take due to abortion for unknown disease) Camel/Cattle: Low Sh/Goats: Medium : Medium Sh/goats: low Cattle: Low Low L/Sh: Average Medium Cattle: Low L/Sh: Average abortion for unknown disease)

Livestock Sector

Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Region Conception (Deyr ‘09/10) Calving/kidding (Deyr ‘09/10) Milk production (Deyr ‘09/10) Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ‘10 Heard Size Recovery Projected at (Dec ‘09) (Deyr 09/10) (Deyr 09/10) (Deyr 09/10) kidding Jan Jun 10 Livelihoods Livestock species Hiiran Camel: Low Cattle: None Sh/Goats: High to low Camel: low Cattle: None Sh/Goats: Medium Camel/Cattle: Poor Sh/goats: medium Camel: Low Cattle: None Goat/sheep: High Hawd Pastoral Camel: Same (Below Baseline) Sh/Goats: Decrease (Below Baseline) Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Same (Below Baseline) Goats: Increase (Below Baseline) Galgaduud & south Mudug Hawd and Addun: Camel: None Sh/Goats: Low to none Cowpea belt & t l Hawd and Addun Camel: None Cattle: Extinct Sheep/goats: Low to none. C b lt & t l Hawd and Addun: Very poor for all species; Cowpea belt & coastal: Camel/Cattle Poor Sh/goat: Average Hawd/Addun: Camel: None Sheep/goats: None to low. Cowpea belt & t l Addun Pastoral Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) Goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) Hawd Pastoral Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) Goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) Cowpea Belt & Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) coastal: Camel/Sh/goats: Medium to high Cattle: medium Cowpea belt & coastal: Camel/Cattle: low Sh/Goats: High coastal: Camel/cattle: low Sh/Goats: Medium to High Coastal Deeh Cattle: Same (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increased (Same as Baseline) Northeast Camel: Low to None Camel: Low to Medium with the exception of Camel: Poor to Very poor for All species Camel: None to Low Sh/Goats: Low to Hawd Pastoral Camel: decrease ( Below Baseline) Goats: Increased (Below Baseline) Sh/Goats: Low to Medium with the exception of North Bari & Mudug with the exception of South Nugal and North Mudug Sheep/Goats: None to Low poor for All species Sh/Goats: Low to Medium Goats: Increased (Below Baseline) Nugal Pastoral Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) Sh/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) Sool Pastoral Camel: Increased (below baseline) Sh/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) Add P t l C l S ( B l B li ) Addun Pastoral Camel: Same ( Below Baseline) Sh/goats: Increased ( below Baseline) Northwest Camel: Medium Sh/goats: Medium to Low Camel: Low Sh/goats: Low Below Average for all species Camel: None to Low Sh/Goats: Medium to Low Hawd Pastoral Camel: Increased (Below Baseline) Sh/goats: Increased (Below Baseline) Guban/Golis/Gabi P t l Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Sh/ t I d (B l B li ) Pastoral Sh/goats: Increased (Below Baseline) Sool Pastoral Camel: Decreased (below Baseline) Sh/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline)

Livestock

W ater Availability

Continuing water trucking – in Badan – Continuing water trucking –

E l t d l ti f T d l

Continuing water trucking – in Badan – Sool plateau – Dec. ‘09 g g Dhaankadus- Qandala – Dec. ‘09

Early water depletion of Teed communal water catchment- North Hudur

Fully replenished Asha-Gabo communal dam – Baidoa- Bay Dec. ‘09 Gedo- Belethawa- Bananey- Communal dam water replenished – Dec. ‘09 Improved water condition, Nebsooy, Sakow, Middle Juba, Dec.’09

Livestock

Pastoral Migration Using Different Means of Transport, Drought Destitutes

Transported camel calves from Hawd – Togdheer to Hawd /Nugal Valley– Sool region Motorized Outmigration of Addun _ Jariiban to Coastal Eyl – Dec. ‘09 Destitute Pastoral in Abudwaq District _ Galgaduud – Dec. ‘09 Poor Cattle body condition: Biyoley village – Teyeglow, Bakool Dec. ‘09 Normal Migration of Bay/Bakool Agro-pastroal: Goofguduud village – Baidoa Dec. ‘09

Livestock

Livestock Body Conditions & Pasture: Camel & Cattle

Poor camel condition in Hawd Burao,

• Dec. ‘09

Good cattle body condition in Safar- nooleys - Diinsoor/Bay, Dec. ‘09 Desiccated rangeland in Dhusamareb district, Dec. ‘09 Emaciated cattle body condition – Golis/Gabi – Erigabo – Dec. ‘09 Good cattle body condition – Southeast Pastoral _ Afmadow – Dec. ‘09 High animal death in Hagaa ‘09 – Sool Plateau – Sanag, Dec. ‘09

Livestock

Unchanged Coping Options in Golis/Guban – Awdal region, Dec. ‘09

Livestock

T d i L l C l P i

Regional Average Monthly Prices Cattle (SoSh/SLSh)

Trends in Local Cattle Prices

Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices and Terms of Trade

Livestock

Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices and Terms of Trade

Regional Trend Local Quality Goat Prices Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat

Livestock

Trends in Livestock Exports – Berbera & Bossaso p

Total Annual Livestock Exports

Berbera & Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)

Total Annual Livestock Exports Compared to 5 year Average

livestock exports 5-year Average (2003-2007) 3,000,000 3,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000

• f Heads

Berbera & Bossaso: Trend in Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)

50 60 70 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 S$) housands Camel Cattle Shoats Hargesia Galkayo Burao Bossaso

500 000 1,000,000 1,500,000

• No. o

10 20 30 40 200 300 400 500 600 700 Price Per Head (US xports (Heads) Th

500,000

10 100 00 Livestock E Month

Livestock

Trends in Livestock Exports (2009) – Berbera Vs Bossaso p ( )

Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) Berbera: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)

Livestock

Carcass Meat Exports: Jan – Dec. 2009

Month Burao Beletweyne Galkayo January 7030 2,693 5,086 February 7100 4 143 February 7100 4,143 March 7000 5,511 April 5700 3,202 4,200 May 6,300 4,111 4,387 June 6,410 6,145 5,060 July 6.700 8,097 3,110 August 8,900 3,783 4,000 September 3,300 2,500 September 3,300 2,500 October 2,500 November NA December NA Total 51,746.7 28,031 40,497

Agriculture

Deyr ’09/10 Cereal Production Estimates

Southern Somalia:

• Deyr ’09/10 cereal production (sorghum & maize) - 124 700MT (current); 126 400MT (incl off-

Deyr 09/10 cereal production (sorghum & maize) 124,700MT (current); 126,400MT (incl. off season maize in Juba), and 3,750MT of rice (Jowhar).

• Production by cereal types: Sorghum 76%, Maize 21%, Rice 3%

Overall high cereal production (excl off season maize and rice)

• Overall high cereal production (excl. off-season maize and rice)

– 121% of Deyr PWA (’95-’08); 149% of 5-year Average (‘04-’08); 246% of Deyr ’08/09 – Sorghum: 158% of Deyr PWA and 164% of Deyr 5-year average M i 90% f D PWA d 179% f D 5 – Maize: 90% of Deyr PWA and 179% of Deyr 5-year average Regional Differences: – Lowest production: Hiran (31% of PWA). – 60 -80% of PWA: L. Shabelle (62%); Gedo (67%); M. Shabelle (80%); – Average to good production (as % PWA): Bay (212%), M. Juba (219% without off-season),

• L. Juba (152%) and Bakool (108%).

Production in Other Regions:

• Central (Mudug & Galgadud): 700MT of sorghum in Cowpea Belt
• Northwest: 10,765 MT (maize & sorghum) - 58% PWA; and 61% Gu/Karan ’08 and 49% of 5-

year average (85% from Gabiley)

Agriculture

Deyr Cereal Production in Southern Somalia y

D ’09/10 Regions Deyr ’09/10 Production in MT Deyr ’09/10 as % of Deyr 2008 Deyr ’09/10 as %

• f Deyr PWA

(1999-2008) Deyr ’09/10 as % of 5 year average (2004-2008) Maize Sorghum Total Cereal Bakool 200 2,100 2,300 84% 108% 82% Bay 2,500 69,800 72,300 329% 212% 207% Gedo 1,100 3,500 4,600 207% 67% 64% Hiran 400 1,500 1,900 43% 31% 37% Juba Dhexe (Middle) 5,100 3,700 8,800 696% 219% 232% Juba Hoose Juba Hoose (Lower) 1,600 200 1,800 666% 152% 352% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 7,100 3,300 10,400 190% 80% 144% (Middle) Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 7,900 14,700 22,600 179% 62% 99% TOTAL 25 900 98 800 124 700 246% 121% 149% TOTAL 25,900 98,800 124,700 246% 121% 149%

Agriculture

Deyr Cereal Production Plus Off-season Deyr Cereal Production Plus Off season in Southern Somalia

Regions Deyr ’09/10 Production in MT Deyr ’09/10 as % of Deyr 2008 Deyr ’09/10 as % of Deyr PWA (1999-2008) Deyr ’09/10 as % of 5 year average (2004-2008) Maize Sorghum Total Cereal (1999-2008) (2004-2008) Bakool 200 2,100 2,300 84% 123% 82% Bay 2,500 69,800 72,300 329% 237% 207% Gedo 1,100 3,500 4,600 207% 67% 64% Hiran 400 1,500 1,900 43% 30% 37% Juba Dhexe (Middle) 5,500 3,700 9,200 199% 208% 201% J b H Juba Hoose (Lower) 2,900 200 3,100 134% 216% 309% Shabelle Dhexe 7,100 3,300 10,400 190% 90% 144% (Middle) Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 7,900 14,700 22,600 179% 67% 99% TOTAL 27,600 98,800 126,400 225% 120% 144%

Agriculture

Rice and Off-Season Cereal Estimates in Rice and Off Season Cereal Estimates in Southern Somalia

Regions Off Season: March – April 2010 Maize (MT) Total Cereal Maize (MT) Total Cereal Juba Dhexe (Middle) 356 356 Juba Hoose (Lower) 1,300 1,300 Total 1,656 1,656 Deyr ’09/10 Rice Deyr’09/10 Rice Region Production Estimates (MT) Production as % of Deyr ’08/09 Rice Production Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) – Jowhar 3 750 188% Only 3,750 188% Total 3,750 188%

Agriculture

Cereal Production in Central Somalia Cereal Production in Central Somalia

Deyr ’09/10 Production in MT Regions Maize Sorghum Total Cereal Cereal Galgadud 500 500 Mudug 200 200 TOTAL 700 700

Agriculture

Trends in Cereal Production Trends in Cereal Production Southern Somalia

Deyr Cereal Production (1995-2009)

180 000 200,000 Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg 140,000 160,000 180,000 100,000 120,000 , MT 60,000 80,000 20,000 40,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year

Agriculture

Trends in Cereal Production Southern Somalia

450,000

Annual Cereal Production by Season

D G O ll PWA 5 A 350,000 400,000 , Deyr Gu Overall PWA 5 year Avrg 200,000 250,000 300,000 MT 100,000 150,000 , 50,000 199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009 Year

Agriculture

Regional Cereal Contributions in Southern Somalia

Maize Production Deyr ’09/10 Regional Contribution

Regional Contribution

Juba Hoose (Lower) 6% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 27%

g Deyr ’09 Cereal Production

Juba Dhexe (Middle)

Bay 58% Gedo

Bakol 1% Bay 10% Gedo 4% Hiran 2% (Middle) 20% Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 30%

Sorghum Production Deyr ’08/09 Regional Contribution

Bakool 2% 4% Hiran 2% Shabelle

Bay 71% Gedo

Juba Dhexe (Middle) 7% Juba Hoose (Lower) 1% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 8% Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 18%

71% Gedo 4% Hiran Juba Dhexe (Middle) 4% Bakool 2% 1% Juba Hoose (Lower) 0% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 3% Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 15%

Agriculture

Deyr ’09/10 Cash Crop Production Estimates in Southern Somalia

Regions Deyr ’09/10 Production in MT Rice Cowpea Sesame Ground Nut Off-Season Cowpea Off-Season Sesame Total Bakool 191 191 Bakool 191 191 Bay 3,600 2,350 1,830 7,780 Gedo 69 421 490 Hiran 50 30 80 Hiran 50 30 80 Galgadud 5,570 5570 Mudug 3,486 3486 J b Dh Juba Dhexe (Middle) 7,129 138 1,350 8,617 Juba Hoose (Lower) 1,842 480 1,800 4,122 Sh b ll Dh Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 3,750 390 1,170 5,310 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 530 6,950 7,480 TOTAL 3,750 13,886 19,892 1,830 618 3,150 43,126

Agriculture

Northwest Cereal Production

Gu/Karan Cereal Production Estimates in Northwest

Gu/Karan ‘09 Production in MT Regions Gu/Karan 09 Production in MT Gu/Karan ‘09 as % of Gu/Karan ‘08 Gu/Karan ‘09 as % of Gu/Karan PWA (1998-2008) Gu/Karan ‘09 as % of 5 year average (2004-2008) Maize Sorghum Total ( 998 008) ( 00 008) Maize Sorghum Cereal Awdal 60 825 885 56% 28% 22% Awdal 60 825 885 56% 28% 22% Togdheer 5 200 205 23% 36% 21% Woqooyi Galbeed 175 9,500 9,675 64% 65% 56% TOTAL 240 10,525 10,765 61% 58% 49%

Agriculture

Trends in Cereal Production Northwest Trends in Cereal Production, Northwest

Gu/Karan Cereal Production Trends (1998 – 2009) ( )

Sorghum Maize PWA 5 year Avrg 25,000 30,000 20,000 25,000 10,000 15,000 MT 5,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year

Agriculture

R i l C l C t ib ti i N th t Regional Cereal Contributions in Northwest

Cereal Harvest Estimates per District/ Region Gu/Karan ‘09

Gebiley 85% Awdal 8% Togdheer 2% Hargeisa 5% 8%

Agriculture

Deyr ’09/10 Poor Crops Deyr 09/10 Poor Crops

1 Poor Sorghum Crop Boodaan Rabdhure

1

• 1. Poor Sorghum Crop. Boodaan, Rabdhure,
• Bakool. Dec. ’09
• 2. . Sorghum Crop Failure with limited fodder

harvested by the Owner Shawli Bulo Burte Hiran

1

harvested by the Owner. Shawli, Bulo Burte, Hiran,

• Dec. ‘09.
• 3. Poor Sorghum Crop due to water stress. Bulo

Weyn Jalalaqsi Hiran Dec ‘09 Weyn, Jalalaqsi, Hiran, Dec. 09

2 3

Agriculture

Deyr ’09/10 Good Crops y p

1

• 1. Good Sorghum Crop. Tubaako,

Bardheere, Gedo, Dec. ’09 2 Good Sorghum Crop Baidoa Bay

• 2. Good Sorghum Crop. Baidoa, Bay,

Dec.’09

• 3. Good Maize Crop. Ooflaw, Qansah

Dheere Bay Jan ‘10 Dheere, Bay, Jan. 10.

2 3

Agriculture

Deyr ’09/10 Good Crops

• 1. Good Maize Crop. Duqiya, Buale, M.

09

1

Juba, Dec. ’09

• 2. Good Sorghum Crop. Qaydajuse,

Sakow, M. Juba, Dec. 2009

• 3. Good Maize Crop. Jowhar, M. Shabelle,
• Dec. ’09

2 3

Agriculture

Deyr ’09/10 Cash Crops and Other Income Activities

Good Sesame Crop. Lama Daadka, Jilib, Middle Juba, Dec. ‘09. Good Cowpea Crop. Baidoa, Bay, Dec. ‘09. Good Rain-fed Sesame Crop. Tubaako, Gedo, Dec. ‘09 Good Rice Crop. Jowhar, M. Shabelle, Dec. ‘09

Agriculture

Deyr ’09/10 Cash Crops and Other Income Activities y p

Sorghum Grains in Ground Pit as an indication of Good Cowpea Crop Barked Aliid El Dhere Sorghum Grains in Ground Pit as an indication of stock availability. Wanlaweyn, L. Shabelle, Nov. ‘09. Good Cowpea Crop. Barked Aliid, El Dhere, Galgadud Dec. ‘09. Mango Fruit Market. Hamir Gaab, Jalalaqsi, Hiran, Dec. ‘09

Sorghum Grains in Ground Pit as an indication

• f stock availability. Wanlaweyn, L. Shabelle,
• Nov. ‘09.

Agriculture

Commercial Cereal Import Trends (2005-2009)

70 000 80,000 ts)

Commercial Cereal Import Trends (2005 - 2009)

3 yr Average 2005-2007 2008

MT 2009 (Jan. –Dec.): 667 922MT

50,000 60,000 70,000 al Equivalen

2009

• 667,922MT
• 190% of year 2008

(352,385MT)

• 156% of 3-year

30,000 40,000 mports (Cerea

y average (429,085MT)

10,000 20,000 Cereal Im Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Agriculture

Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labour (kg

• f cereal/daily

wage)

Markets

Main Issues in Deyr ’09/10

• The Somaliland and Somali shilling strengthened, though

depreciation is high compared to five year average. Imported commodity prices slightly decreased/or remained

• Imported commodity prices slightly decreased/or remained

stable, due to increased volume of imports and increased livestock exports. livestock exports.

• CPI slightly improved due to the slowdown of price

inflationary effect.

Markets

Trends in Exchange Rates Trends in Exchange Rates

Factors Affecting: Appreciation Significant increase in USD

Monthly Exchange Rates - SoSh and SlSh to USD

• Piracy
• Increased livestock exports

C ti f SOSH i ti

• Cessation of SOSH printing

Depreciation

• High demand in USD
• Low remittance levels

L k f fid i S li Shilli

• Lack of confidence in Somali Shilling
• Speculation and expectations
• Insecurity and political instability

Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates

Markets

Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates

Factors affecting Commercial Import Prices

Shabelle Valley: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices

g decreases in Lower Shabelle

• High supply cereals (import and local)
• Reduced disrupted market activities

y p y Compared to Exchange Rate

• Reduced disrupted market activities
• Appreciation of Somali Shilling
• Improved trade flows

p Factors affecting Commercial Import Prices increases in Central markets

Central: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rate

increases in Central markets

• Disrupted Market Activities (insecurity)
• High Transportation Costs

p g

g p

• Low Supply (import and local cereal)
• Reduced Trade Flows
• Slowdown of business
• Trade Collusion

Comparison of Rice Prices: International (Bangkok FOB),

Markets

Comparison of Rice Prices: International (Bangkok FOB), Mogadishu and Bossaso

1.20 1.40 International Mogadishu 0.80 1.00 m per USD Bossasso 0.60 Kilogram 0.20 0.40 0.00 Source: FAO Statistics and FSNAU Market Price Monitoring System, 2009.

Markets

Consumer Price Index

300 0 350.0 250.0 300.0 e 150.0 200.0 Percentag 50.0 100.0 CPI Central CPI North CPI North(SlSh) CPI South 0.0 CPI (March 2007) CPI (June 2008) CPI (December 2008) CPI (June 2009) CPI (December 2009)

Urban –TOT

Wage rates and Cereal prices Wage rates and Cereal prices

NW NE CENTRAL SOUTH

Urban Income Sources

Distribution of Income Sources by Season

20% 20% 27% 25% 6% 13% 90% 100%

y

Social Support Employment

50% 20% 20% 47% 27% 25% 60% 70% 80% 90% 50% 80% 80% 53% 73% 75% 100% 94% 87% 30% 40% 50% 50% 0% 10% 20% Deyr Gu'09 Deyr Deyr Gu'09 Deyr Deyr Gu'09 Deyr Deyr 08/09 Gu 09 Deyr 09/10 Deyr 08/09 Gu 09 Deyr 09/10 Deyr 08/09 Gu 09 Deyr 09/10 North Central South

Gender Issues at Times of Crisis

• Shift in the roles of women and men in

income-related activities, household tasks and control over household expenditures

• Increased participation by men in income-

generating activities (crop and livestock product sales, petty trade), domestic activities (fetching water firewood collection etc ) and (fetching water, firewood collection, etc.) and household expenditures

• Increased number of women seeking social

Increased number of women seeking social support/ gifts/ loan-taking

• Family splitting resulting in increased number

y p g g

• f

women-headed households , reduced access to milk, increased malnutrition

Results of Gender Analysis in Deyr ‘09/10

• Shifts of gender roles were
• bserved in central regions

60%

Sale of Livestock/ or Livestock Products by Gender

Male Female Both

• bserved in central regions

(Central agro-pastoral, Addun pastoral, Hawd pastoral where there is

20% 30% 40% 50%

pastoral where there is humanitarian emergency)

• Shifts

are also found in

0% 10% 20% Normal Time Deyr 09/010 Normal Time Deyr 09/010

• Shifts

are also found in parts

• f

northeast and northwest, which are classified as HE and/or risk

Pastoral Agropastoral

Crop sales by gender

classified as HE and/or risk

• f worsening (Sool plateau,

Hawd northwest, East Golis pastoral, Gaagab

60% 80% 100% 120% Male Female Both

Golis pastoral, Gaagab pastoral, Karkaar/Dharoor pastoral)

0% 20% 40% 60% N l Ti D 09/010 N l Ti D 09/010 Normal Time Deyr 09/010 Normal Time Deyr 09/010 Pastoral Agropastoral

Nutrition Overview Deyr ’09/10 Deyr 09/10

Nutrition Information Sources Deyr ’09 (July – Dec’09) (July – Dec 09)

• Nutrition Surveys

38 detailed nutrition surveys conducted (Includes 14 PPS and 21 small sample 38 detailed nutrition surveys conducted (Includes 14 PPS and 21 small sample

• surveys. 36 of the surveys by FSNAU and 2 in collaboration with WFP).
• 17 focused on repeating livelihood level surveys from 6 and 12 months ago for South Central
• 13 focused on concerning areas in northwest (7) and northeast (6) from Gu’09 analysis
• 2 focused on regions (Galgadud & Mudug)
• 6 focused on IDP populations (Hargeisa, Berbera, Burao, Galkahyo, Bossaso, Afgooye)
• Rapid Urban Nutrition Assessments using MUAC conducted in 27 sites (n=5260 children 6-
• Rapid Urban Nutrition Assessments using MUAC conducted in 27 sites (n 5260 children 6

59months)

• Health Centre Monitoring

Collected from 100 health centres from all regions (irregular in places e g Bakool)

• Collected from 100 health centres from all regions (irregular in places e.g. Bakool)
• Related Selective Feeding Centre Data
• Information from partners: Central, Hiran, Bakool, Bay, Juba and Mogadishu –patchy and

limited due to interrupted programming e.g. IMC, ACF

• Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deterioration)
• Disease outbreaks e.g. malaria, AWD outbreaks, Shabelle, Juba

g , , ,

• Programme access disruption: Bakool, Bay, Central, Gedo
• Displacement

Deyr ’09/10 Nutrition Survey Results Overview

Rates of Global Acute Malnutrition (WHO GS) Deyr' 2009/2010

20 0 25.0 30.0 35.0

( ) y

0 0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 % 0.0 gdheer Agrop heer Pastoral West Golis rthwest Agrop

• l Plateau NW

Sool/Galbeed East Golis gal Valley NW

• l Plateau NE

Coastal Deeh Golis/Kakaar gal Valley NE Hawd Past Addun Past gadud Region Mudug Region Hiraan Past Hiraan Agrop Hiraan Riv Shabelle Pas Shabelle Riv Bay Agrop Bakool Past Bakool Agrop Gedo Past Gedo Agrop Gedo Riv Juba Past Juba Agrop Juba Riv Hargeisa IDP Burao IDP Berbera IDP Bossaso IDP Galcayo IDP Afgoi IDP Tog Togd Nor Soo Hawd-S Nug Soo C Nu Galg M

Crude and under 5 yrs Mortality rates generally stable with exception of Afgoye IDPs, Juba and Hawd Pastoralists, which report alert levels

Trends in levels of Global Acute Malnutrition (WHO GS) – Deyr ’09/10 Trends in levels of Global Acute Malnutrition (WHO GS) Deyr 09/10

The national median rate is 16.0% GAM and 4.2% SAM , which means l t 1 i 6 hild

Median Rates of Global and Severe Acute Malnutrition

almost 1 in 6 children acutely malnourished and 1 in 22 severely malnourished.

16 18 20

Median Rates of Global and Severe Acute Malnutrition (WHO GS) - Deyr'09/10

6 8 10 12 14 %

For South Central, however, the median rate is 19.0% GAM and 4.5% SAM which means 1 in 5

2 4 IDP All (exc IDP) All (inc IDP) NW NE Sth Central (Excl IDP)

SAM , which means 1 in 5 children acutely malnourished and 1 in 20 severely malnourished – unchanged from 6 unchanged from 6 months ago

Trends in levels of Stunting (WHO GS) – Deyr ’09/10

The national median The national median rate of stunting is 20% , which means 1 in 5 children stunted who will Median Rates of Total and Severe Stunting ( W HO GS) , Deyr 2 0 0 9 / 2 0 1 0 stunted who will not reach their full developmental potential.

20.00 25.00 30.00 Total Stunting Severe Stunting 5.00 10.00 15.00 %

For IDPS, however, the median rate is 25%, which means 1 in 4 children stunted

0.00 Total (Inc IDP) Total (Excl IDP) IDP NW NE South Central

in 4 children stunted who will not reach their full developmental potential potential.

Summary

South / Central: Northwest/ Northeast populations: South / Central:

• Overall mixed picture, still high levels of nutritional

vulnerability,

Northwest/ Northeast populations:

• Slight improvements
• West Golis

Sool Plateau East Golis/Guban and

• Particular concern over areas with Very Critical,
• Juba, more likely linked to disease

than food access.

• Bakool and parts of Gedo more likely linked

to food access West Golis, Sool Plateau, East Golis/Guban and Coastal Deeh recovery likely linked to returning livestock, increased access to milk and humanitarian interventions Impro ements in Sool Platea and East Golis likel to food access

• Bay and Hiran likely linked both to food

access and disease.

• Improvements in Sool Plateau and East Golis likely

due to on-going interventions, however populations still vulnerable.

• Particular

concern

• ver

areas with Critical

• Lack of further deterioration in Central likely linked

to humanitarian interventions – however populations still in crisis. conditions in Hawd and Addun and Toghdeer Agro- pastoralists as a result of persistent poor access to water and food.

• All IDP populations continue to be very nutritionally
• However

significant decreasing humanitarian space for agencies to meet to provide programmes, fewer partners – risk factor for further deterioration – e.g. Central, Bakool and Hiran All IDP populations continue to be very nutritionally vulnerable

• More opportunities for response – improvement in

vaccination coverage due to CHD

Nutrition Situation Estimates - Maps

Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2009 Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2010

• B. Current Food &
• B. Current Food &

Livelihood Security Phase Classifications

Summary Results

Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Rural IPC Populations July – December 2009 Rural IPC Populations January – June 2010

Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC Populations July – December 2009 Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC Populations January – June 2010

Rural, Urban & IDP Populations in Crisis, July – December 2009

Region UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population UNDP 2005 Rural Population Urban in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Rural in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Urban in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Rural Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC and HE as % of Total population Crisis (AFLC) Crisis (AFLC) North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 5,000 25,000 10 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 55,000 30,000 12 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 55,000 75,000 20,000 5,000 39 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 20,000 75,000 5,000 15,000 43 Sool 150 277 39 134 111 143 15 000 35 000 5 000 37 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 15,000 35,000 5,000 37 Bari 367,638 179,633 202,737 80,000 25,000 29 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 75,860 25,000 15,000 5,000 31 Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 255,000 255,000 55,000 25,000 25 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 30,000 65,000 130,000 51 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 15,000 35,000 10,000 200,000 79 Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 45,000 100,000 10,000 330,000 65 South Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 25,000 55,000 5,000 160,000 74 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 95,831 419,070 25,000 60,000 160,000 48 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 50,000 10,000 5,000 12 Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 25,000 65,000 70,000 52 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 20,000 5,000 5,000 5 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 30,000 80,000 40,000 46 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 54,739 184,138 10,000 5,000 6 J b H (L ) 385 790 124 682 261 108 20 000 10 000 8 Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 124,682 261,108 20,000 10,000 8 Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 190,000 330,000 15,000 440,000 27 Banadir 901,183 901,183

• 30,000
• 55,000
• 9

Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 520,000 685,000 135,000 795,000 28 Distribution of populations in Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE Number affected % of Total population Distribution of populations in crisis Assessed Urban population in AFLC and HE

580,000 8 18%

Assessed Rural population in AFLC and HE

1,255,000 17 39%

Estimated number of IDPs-updated 19th Jan 2010 (UNHCR)

1,115,000 15 35%

Estimated number of protracted IDPs

275,000 4 9%

E ti t d R l U b d IDP l ti i i i

3 225 000 43 100 0%

* Revised Mudug population affected. In Post Gu ’09 Integrated Analysis, Hawd and Addun livelihoods population affected was erroneously underestimated. The rational used was 50%

P and 25% M in AFLC and 50% P in HE instead of 75% M in AFLC and 100% P and 25% M in HE for Hawd. For Addun, rational used was 50% P in AFLC and 25% P in HE instead of 50% P and 50% M in AFLC and 50% P in HE. ** Updated January 19, 2010 previously estimated as 1,245,000 (rounded to the nearest 5,000). The reduction is due to the downward revision of the Afgoye IDPs by UNHCR from 540,000 to 380,000. Source UNHCR Estimated Rural, Urban and IDP population in crisis

3,225,000 43 100.0%

Rural, Urban & IDP Populations in Crisis, January – June 2010

Region UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population UNDP 2005 Rural Population Urban in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Rural in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Urban in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Rural Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC and HE as % of Total population North A d l 305 455 110 942 194 513

5 000 20 000 8

Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513

5,000 20,000 8

Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913

30,000 4

Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893

50,000 75,000 5,000 32

Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288

25,000 60,000 5,000 20,000 41

Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143

15,000 35,000 5,000 5,000 40

Bari 367,638 179,633 202,737

80,000 25,000 29

Nugaal 145,341 54,749 75,860

25,000 25,000 15,000 45

Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347

200,000 245,000 35,000 45,000 22

Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694

35,000 90,000 100,000 64

Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080

20,000 65,000 10,000 155,000 76

Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774

55,000 155,000 10,000 255,000 70

South Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698

25,000 50,000 5,000 160,000 73

Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 95,831 419,070

25,000 135,000 35,000 38

Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 172,714 677,937

35,000 15,000 10,000 7

Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189

25,000 70,000 25,000 39

Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749

25,000 5,000 5

Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076

30,000 40,000 20,000 27

Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 54,739 184,138

5,000 2

Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 124,682 261,108

10,000 3

Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965

180,000 315,000 15,000 240,000 21

Banadir 901,183 901,183

• 30,000
• 55,000

9

Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086

465,000 715,000 115,000 540,000 24

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE Number affected % of Total population Distribution of populations in crisis Assessed Urban population in AFLC and HE 555,000 7 17% Assessed Rural population in AFLC and HE 1,255,000 17 39% Estimated number of IDPs-updated 19th Jan 2010 (UNHCR) 1,115,000 15 35% 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086

, , , ,

p ( ) , , Estimated number of protracted IDPs 275,000 4 9% Estimated Rural, Urban and IDP population in crisis 3,200,000 43 100.0%

Somalia IPC Table

Trends in Rural, Urban & IDP Populations in Crisis

Jan-Jun '08 (A) Revised Apr-Jun '08 (B) Jul-Dec '08 (C) Jan-Jun '09 (D) Jul-Dec '09 (E) Jan-Jun '10 (F) % increase /(decrease) (F to E) Urban

• 576,000

705,000 705,000 655,000 580,000

• 12%

Rural 850,000 921,000 1,395,000 1,215,000 1,480,000 1,255,000

• 15%

IDPs (UNHCR) 705,000 855,000 870,000 1,020,000 1,115,000 1,115,000 IDPs (UNHCR) 705,000 855,000 870,000 1,020,000 1,115,000 1,115,000 0% Protracted IDPS 275,000 275,000 275,000 275,000 275,000 275,000 0% Total 1,830,000 2,627,000 3,245,000 3,215,000 3,525,000 3,225,000

• 9%

* Revised Mudug population affected In Post Gu ’09 Integrated Analysis Hawd and Addun livelihoods population affected was erroneously Revised Mudug population affected. In Post Gu 09 Integrated Analysis, Hawd and Addun livelihoods population affected was erroneously

• underestimated. The rational used was 50% P and 25% M in AFLC and 50% P in HE instead of 75% M in AFLC and 100% P and 25% M in HE for Hawd.

For Addun, rational used was 50% P in AFLC and 25% P in HE instead of 50% P and 50% M in AFLC and 50% P in HE.

**Updated January 19, 2010 previoulsy estimated as 1,245,000 (rounded to the nearest 5,000). The reduction is due to the downward revision of the

Afgoye IDPs by UNHCR from 540,000 to 380,000. Source UNHCR.

Somalia IPC Table Distribution of Rural Populations in Crisis

Comparison of Gu ’09 and Deyr ‘09/10 p y /

• HE decreased– from 795,000 to 540,000 (32% decrease)

Primarily due to decrease in HE in South and Central Primarily due to decrease in HE in South and Central Slight increase of HE in North

• AFLC increased – from 685,000 to 715,000 (4% increase)

Primarily due to improvement from HE to AFLC in South

UNDP 2005 UNDP 2005 Acute Food and Humanitari an Total in % of Total Zone Total Population Rural Population Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) an Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC & HE in AFLC & HE Central 680 156 526 774 110 000 220 000 330 000 26 Central 680,156 526,774 110,000 220,000 330,000 26 North East 1,213,324 488,510 70,000 50,000 120,000 10 South 4,480,780 2,792,965 315,000 240,000 555,000 44 North West 1,128,394 798,837 220,000 30,000 250,000 20 Grand Total 7,502,654 4,607,086 715,000 540,000 1,255,000 100

Som alia I PC Table

Distribution of Urban Populations in Crisis

Comparison of Gu ’09 and Deyr ‘09/10

• HE decreased – from 135,000 to 115,000 (15% decrease)

Primarily due to decrease in HE in the Northwest

• AFLC decreased – from 520,000 to 440,000 (15% decrease)

Primarily due to decrease in the Northwest and in the South

A t F d Zone UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC & HE % of Total in AFLC & HE Central 680,156 153,382 55,000 10,000 65,000 11 North East 512,979 234,382 105,000 25,000 130,000 22 South 4,480,780 1,687,815 210,000 70,000 280,000 48 North West 1,828,739 819,989 95,000 10,000 105,000 18 Grand Total 7 502 654 2 895 568 465 000 115 000 580 000 100 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 465,000 115,000 580,000 100

Implications for Actions

Humanitarian Access

• Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety to ensure that populations in need

receive assistance Humanitarian Access

• Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety to ensure that populations in need

receive assistance receive assistance Emergency Humanitarian Assistance: To Save Lives

• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in HE

receive assistance Emergency Humanitarian Assistance: To Save Lives

• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in HE

g g p

• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in Critical & Very Critical Nutrition
• Scale-up in areas with sustained humanitarian emergency (Central, Hiran, M. Shabelle,

Bakool) g g p

• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in Critical & Very Critical Nutrition
• Scale-up in areas with sustained humanitarian emergency (Central, Hiran, M. Shabelle,

Bakool) Bakool)

• Scale-up in new HE areas in the North (Togdheer agro-pastoral, Sool Plateau)
• IDP and urban populations identified in HE and with high rates of malnutrition

Bakool)

• Scale-up in new HE areas in the North (Togdheer agro-pastoral, Sool Plateau)
• IDP and urban populations identified in HE and with high rates of malnutrition

Emergency Livelihood Support: To Save Livelihoods and Prevent Deterioration to HE

• Priority both in areas & livelihood groups in AFLC, but also in HE
• Emergency ‘livelihood support’ in the south (Gedo Bakool M Shabelle)

Emergency Livelihood Support: To Save Livelihoods and Prevent Deterioration to HE

• Priority both in areas & livelihood groups in AFLC, but also in HE
• Emergency ‘livelihood support’ in the south (Gedo Bakool M Shabelle)
• Emergency livelihood support in the south (Gedo, Bakool M. Shabelle)
• Scale-up of emergency in northern drought affected areas
• Poor and most vulnerable urban populations that are not able to cope with prolonged

hi h f d d f d i

• Emergency livelihood support in the south (Gedo, Bakool M. Shabelle)
• Scale-up of emergency in northern drought affected areas
• Poor and most vulnerable urban populations that are not able to cope with prolonged

hi h f d d f d i high food and nonfood prices high food and nonfood prices