portmetrovancouver.com
PMV’s Container Forecast to 2013 Figure 7: PMV 2009-2013 Container Forecast Total TEU ('000s) 4,500 I m p o r t L a d e n 4,047 E x p o r t L a d e n 4,000 3,794 B a s e C a s e 3,627 L o w C a s e 3,464 3,476 3,500 H i g h C a s e 3,258 Total TEUs ('000s) 3,004 3,022 3,000 2,817 2,634 2,762 2,659 2,560 2,553 2,497 2,504 2,476 2,500 2,302 2,140 2,439 2,312 1,982 2,000 1,770 1,663 1,500 1,533 1,431 1,285 1,268 1,223 1,225 1,171 1,153 1,000 1,072 1,035 996 948 929 933 925 821 811 793 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 portmetrovancouver.com
PMV’s 2008 Container Market Inbound Traffic BC Prairies 32% E. Canada 9% 51% United States 8% portmetrovancouver.com
PMV’s 2008 Container Market Outbound Traffic BC Prairies 66% E. Canada 11% 19% United States 4% portmetrovancouver.com
portmetrovancouver.com PMV’s Container Forecast to 2030 Demand Capacity
Mortgage Market Update Mortgage Market Update Good New s Good New s � Term debt is being arranged today. Term debt is being arranged today. � Many lenders are open for business. � Many lenders are open for business. � Interest rates are historically low. � Interest rates are historically low. � Bad New s Bad New s Underwriting is conservative, cap rates are up, � Underwriting is conservative, cap rates are up, � resulting in larger equity requirements. resulting in larger equity requirements. � Loan approval and funding is a more arduous Loan approval and funding is a more arduous � process. process. Land loans, projects with significant vacancy and/ or � Land loans, projects with significant vacancy and/ or � large lease rollovers are difficult to place. large lease rollovers are difficult to place. portmetrovancouver.com
2008 & 2009 Comparison 2008 & 2009 Comparison I NDUSTRI AL EXAMPLE I NDUSTRI AL EXAMPLE � 43,000 sf Single Tenant warehouse (Langley). 43,000 sf Single Tenant warehouse (Langley). � $6.75 lease rate. � $6.75 lease rate. � Long term lease. � Long term lease. � 2 0 0 8 Mortgage 2 0 0 9 Mortgage 2 0 0 8 Mortgage 2 0 0 9 Mortgage 6% Cap. $4,700,000 value 7% Cap. $4,000,000 value � 6% Cap. $4,700,000 value � 7% Cap. $4,000,000 value � � � 70% LTV. $3,300,000 loan. 70% LTV. $3,300,000 loan. � 65% LTV. $2,600,000 loan. 65% LTV. $2,600,000 loan. � � 5- - year Rate: 5.4% year Rate: 5.4% 5- - year Rate: 5.2% year Rate: 5.2% � 5 � 5 � � portmetrovancouver.com
18 Month Forecast 18 Month Forecast (NOTE: Crystal ball is foggy & cracked…) (NOTE: Crystal ball is foggy & cracked…) 1 2 to 1 8 Months 1 2 to 1 8 Months � More lenders in the market, less “cherry picking”. More lenders in the market, less “cherry picking”. � Lender underwriting will remain conservative. High � Lender underwriting will remain conservative. High � cap rates, high debt coverage, lease rollovers cap rates, high debt coverage, lease rollovers discounted. discounted. Secondary/ Mezzanine lenders will be active filling the � Secondary/ Mezzanine lenders will be active filling the � leverage gap. leverage gap. Interest rates will remain historically low. � Interest rates will remain historically low. � 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 � More leverage available. More leverage available. � Inflation starts to become an issue. � Inflation starts to become an issue. � portmetrovancouver.com
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