portmetrovancouver.com PMVs Container Forecast to 2013 Figure 7: - - PDF document

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portmetrovancouver.com PMVs Container Forecast to 2013 Figure 7: - - PDF document

Nov 06, 2023 243 likes •342 views

portmetrovancouver.com PMVs Container Forecast to 2013 Figure 7: PMV 2009-2013 Container Forecast Total TEU ('000s) 4,500 I m p o r t L a d e n 4,047 E x p o r t L a d e n 4,000 3,794 B a s e C a s e 3,627 L o w C a s e 3,464

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portmetrovancouver.com

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portmetrovancouver.com

PMV’s Container Forecast to 2013

929 1,035 1,171 1,268 1,285 1,223 1,431 1,533 1,663 1,770 821 811 793 933 948 925 996 1,072 1,153 1,225 1,982 2,140 2,302 2,497 2,553 2,504 2,817 3,022 3,258 3,476 2,439 2,312 2,476 2,560 2,659 2,762 2,634 3,004 3,464 3,627 3,794 4,047 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total TEUs ('000s)

Figure 7: PMV 2009-2013 Container Forecast

Total TEU ('000s)

I m p o r t L a d e n E x p o r t L a d e n B a s e C a s e L o w C a s e H i g h C a s e

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portmetrovancouver.com

PMV’s 2008 Container Market Inbound Traffic

United States 8% BC 32% Prairies 9%

  • E. Canada

51%

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PMV’s 2008 Container Market Outbound Traffic

United States 4% BC 66% Prairies 11%

  • E. Canada

19%

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portmetrovancouver.com

PMV’s Container Forecast to 2030

Capacity Demand

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portmetrovancouver.com

Mortgage Market Update Mortgage Market Update

Good New s Good New s

  • Term debt is being arranged today.

Term debt is being arranged today.

  • Many lenders are open for business.

Many lenders are open for business.

  • Interest rates are historically low.

Interest rates are historically low. Bad New s Bad New s

  • Underwriting is conservative, cap rates are up,

Underwriting is conservative, cap rates are up, resulting in larger equity requirements. resulting in larger equity requirements.

  • Loan approval and funding is a more arduous

Loan approval and funding is a more arduous process. process.

  • Land loans, projects with significant vacancy and/ or

Land loans, projects with significant vacancy and/ or large lease rollovers are difficult to place. large lease rollovers are difficult to place.

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2008 & 2009 Comparison 2008 & 2009 Comparison

I NDUSTRI AL EXAMPLE I NDUSTRI AL EXAMPLE

  • 43,000 sf Single Tenant warehouse (Langley).

43,000 sf Single Tenant warehouse (Langley).

  • $6.75 lease rate.

$6.75 lease rate.

  • Long term lease.

Long term lease. 2 0 0 8 Mortgage 2 0 0 8 Mortgage

  • 6% Cap. $4,700,000 value

6% Cap. $4,700,000 value

  • 70% LTV. $3,300,000 loan.

70% LTV. $3,300,000 loan.

  • 5

5-

  • year Rate: 5.4%

year Rate: 5.4% 2 0 0 9 Mortgage 2 0 0 9 Mortgage

  • 7% Cap. $4,000,000 value

7% Cap. $4,000,000 value

  • 65% LTV. $2,600,000 loan.

65% LTV. $2,600,000 loan.

  • 5

5-

  • year Rate: 5.2%

year Rate: 5.2%

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portmetrovancouver.com

18 Month Forecast 18 Month Forecast

(NOTE: Crystal ball is foggy & cracked…) (NOTE: Crystal ball is foggy & cracked…)

1 2 to 1 8 Months 1 2 to 1 8 Months

  • More lenders in the market, less “cherry picking”.

More lenders in the market, less “cherry picking”.

  • Lender underwriting will remain conservative. High

Lender underwriting will remain conservative. High cap rates, high debt coverage, lease rollovers cap rates, high debt coverage, lease rollovers discounted. discounted.

  • Secondary/ Mezzanine lenders will be active filling the

Secondary/ Mezzanine lenders will be active filling the leverage gap. leverage gap.

  • Interest rates will remain historically low.

Interest rates will remain historically low. 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1

  • More leverage available.

More leverage available.

  • Inflation starts to become an issue.

Inflation starts to become an issue.