Portlands Hector Acosta, Research and Data Analyst Get up and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A Tale of Two Portlands Hector Acosta, Research and Data Analyst

Get up and participate! January 2011 January 2005 January 2014

Get up and participate! 1.34 Million, 11/17 1.17 Million, 4/13 1.08 Million, 1/01

1.28 Million, 11/17 1.04 Million, 1/01 1.05 Million, 12/09

11.3% , 4/13 4.5% , 1/01 3.9%, 11/17

Poverty levels decreasing  2011: 17%  2016: 12%  50,000 fewer individuals

Nominal wage and household income growth in Portland MSA 2001-2016 $90,500 Mean household income $68,700 $60,900 $65,800 $46,600 Median household income Annual 75th percentile $41,400 $44,700 wage Annual median wage $27,700 $30,100 Annual 25th percentile $20,750 wage 2001 2006 2011 2016 Data: OES, ACS Analysis: Worksystems

Percentage wage and household income growth in Portland MSA 2001-2016 49% 47% 47% 38% 36% 33% Annual 25th Annual median wage Annual 75th Median household Mean household percentile wage percentile wage income income Data: OES, ACS, BLS CPI % growth inflation Analysis: Worksystems

Revolving door of the highly educated  100,000 moving in; 75% Bachelor’s or higher education  80,000 moving out; 66% Bachelor’s or higher education

Where is the talent moving from?

Change in population by educational attainment, ages 25-64 Portland MSA 2011-2016 7% 544,040 451,402 451,113 436,410 2011 273,721 2016 249,999 % change 1% 113,699 106,636 Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes Some college or associate's Bachelor's degree or higher -1% equivalency) degree Source: ACS 1-year estimates Analysis: Worksystems -2%

Zillow home value index 2008-2018

A quick history lesson

How FPG hurts Worksystems – Regional share of Oregon populations  Total population: 34%  Poverty: 30%  Working poor: 34%  People of color in poverty: 40%  “Just” 12% of the region’s population…  Share of WIOA formula funding: 25%

Here’s the problem…  166,000 residents remain in poverty  Entire population of Gresham and Tigard combined  20% of children in Multnomah County

Family budgets are complicated

Share of households by self-sufficiency and poverty 10% 14% 23% 20% 67% 66% Multnomah County Washington County Above self-sufficiency Above poverty but below self-sufficiency Below poverty Source: IPUMS-USA ACS estimates Analysis: Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability and Worksystems

Introducing a new standard  4 th Iteration  Dr. Diana Pierce – University of Washington  Self-sufficiency = no private or public assistance  Making data-informed decisions for our region & state

Key difference: Budgets vary depending on age of household members, and 48 vs. 700

Key difference: Location matters!

Federal poverty guideline

PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN REAL COST OF HOUSEHOLD EXPENSES VS. INCREASE IN MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME ONE ADULT + INFANT + PRESCHOOLER MULTNOMAH COUNTY, 2008 – 2017 66% 59% 38% 33% 11% 9% -11% -13% * Income taxes Child care Housing Miscellaneous Transportation Household Food Health care income * Percentage increase for income taxes assumes household income kept pace with increase in Source: Self-Sufficiency Standard 2017, ACS, CPI Standard wages Analysis: Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability and Worksystems

Annual wages of Portland MSA 20 largest occupations vs Self-Sufficiency Standard Total Employment , 2017 Registered Nurses $90,000 22,800 General and Operations Managers $89,900 20, 800 Postsecondary Teachers $89,100 11,200 Business Operations Specialists $65,600 11,200 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and… $59,600 12,600 1,183,000 Median wage of all occupations $40,900 12,100 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers $44,000 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks $39,800 13,900 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 19,000 $38,200 Office Clerks $34,900 23,100 Customer Service Representatives $34,600 19,000 Teacher Assistants $29,400 10,100 Multnomah County Stock Clerks and Order Fillers $28,300 12,900 Self-Sufficiency Annual Laborers and Materials movers 15,000 $26,600 Wage: Janitors and Cleaners $25,200 16,700 $65,700 Cooks $24,700 13,900 Retail Salespersons $23,700 34,900 Family type: One Personal Care Aides $23,500 11,800 adult, one 25,400 Cashiers Source: Emsi, Self-sufficiency standard for Oregon $22,400 preschooler, & one 2017 school-aged child Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers,… Analysis: Worksystems $22,200 22,700

Annual wages of various occupations vs Self-Sufficiency Standard Total Employment, 2017 Software developers & programmers $92,750 19,800 Teachers K-12 $66,600 18,900 Multnomah County Apprenticeship trades $59,300 23,000 Self-Sufficiency Annual Wage-- $65,700 Family type: One Health care technologists $59,100 3,800 adult, one preschooler, & one school-aged child Machinists & welders $45,000 5,900 Nursing Assistants $30,800 8,000 Source: Emsi, Self-sufficiency standard for Oregon 2017 Analysis: Worksystems

Work supports and how they help  Oregon Health Plan (Medicaid) $370  $0  Food assistance (SNAP) $630  $450  Child care voucher $1,800  $260  Section 8 housing voucher $1,200  $600  Taxes $1,000  $230 ________________ $3,500 reduction

Work supports and how they help – EOP example Source: I-Trac Analysis: Worksystems

Work supports and how they help – EOP example Source: I-Trac Analysis: Worksystems

Using the standard Policy analysis   Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability Counseling tool  Prosperity Planner  Benchmark for wage-setting  Oregon’s three -tiered minimum wage schedule  Community indicator   Metro Economic Value Atlas (EVA)

Who’s not meeting the standard? 10% 14% 23% 20% 67% 66% Multnomah County Washington County Above self-sufficiency Above poverty but below self-sufficiency Below poverty Source: IPUMS-USA ACS estimates Analysis: Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability and Worksystems

Share of households by income categories, Multnomah County 8% 6% 12% 13% 13% 14% 18% 18% 19% 20% 21% 21% 23% 21% 12% 27% 14% 31% 33% 37% 17% 17% 20% 24% 24% 22% 27% 26% 31% 35% 31% 40% 38% 30% 37% 35% 81% 78% 71% 71% 66% 63% 58% 58% 55% 53% 47% 46% 44% 40% 38% 35% 33% 28% Above self-sufficiency Above poverty but below self-sufficiency Below poverty Source: IPUMS-USA 2014-2016 1 year ACS estimates, Self-Sufficiency Standard for Oregon 2017 Analysis: Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability and Worksystems

Share of households by income categories, Washington County 6% 6% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 16% 17% 20% 19% 19% 23% 23% 14% 16% 20% 16% 23% 25% 30% 28% 33% 32% Below poverty 39% 41% 47% 46% 47% Above poverty but 81% 78% below self- 73% 72% 67% 64% sufficiency 56% 56% 53% 51% Above self- 41% 40% 34% sufficiency 32% 30% Source: IPUMS-USA 2014-2016 1 year ACS estimates, Self-Sufficiency Standard for Oregon 2017 Analysis: Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability and Worksystems

Next steps: Visualization tool

Thank you! https://www.worksystems.org/news-events/news/worksystems- releases-self-sufficiency-standard Questions? hacosta@worksystems.org 503.478.7327