Portlands Hector Acosta, Research and Data Analyst Get up and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A Tale of Two Portlands

Hector Acosta, Research and Data Analyst

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January 2005 January 2011 January 2014

Get up and participate!

1.08 Million, 1/01 1.17 Million, 4/13 1.34 Million, 11/17

1.04 Million, 1/01 1.05 Million, 12/09 1.28 Million, 11/17

4.5% , 1/01 11.3% , 4/13 3.9%, 11/17

Poverty levels decreasing

2011: 17%  2016: 12% 50,000 fewer individuals

Nominal wage and household income growth in Portland MSA 2001-2016

$20,750 Annual 25th percentile wage $27,700 $30,100 Annual median wage $41,400 $44,700 Annual 75th percentile wage $65,800 $46,600 Median household income $68,700 $60,900 Mean household income $90,500

2001 2006 2011 2016

Data: OES, ACS Analysis: Worksystems

Percentage wage and household income growth in Portland MSA 2001-2016

33% 38% 47% 47% 49% 36% Annual 25th percentile wage Annual median wage Annual 75th percentile wage Median household income Mean household income

% growth inflation

Data: OES, ACS, BLS CPI Analysis: Worksystems

Revolving door of the highly educated

 100,000 moving in; 75% Bachelor’s or higher education  80,000 moving out; 66% Bachelor’s or higher education

Where is the talent moving from?

113,699 273,721 436,410 451,113 106,636 249,999 451,402 544,040

• 1%
• 2%

1% 7% Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher

Change in population by educational attainment, ages 25-64 Portland MSA 2011-2016

2011 2016 % change

Source: ACS 1-year estimates Analysis: Worksystems

Zillow home value index 2008-2018

A quick history lesson

How FPG hurts Worksystems – Regional share of Oregon populations

 Total population: 34%  Poverty: 30%  Working poor: 34%  People of color in poverty: 40%  “Just” 12% of the region’s population…  Share of WIOA formula funding: 25%

Here’s the problem…

166,000 residents remain in poverty

Entire population of Gresham and Tigard

combined

20% of children in Multnomah County

Family budgets are complicated

Share of households by self-sufficiency and poverty

Source: IPUMS-USA ACS estimates Analysis: Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability and Worksystems

66% 67% 20% 23% 14% 10%

Multnomah County Washington County Above self-sufficiency Above poverty but below self-sufficiency Below poverty

Introducing a new standard

 4th Iteration  Dr. Diana Pierce – University of

Washington

 Self-sufficiency = no private or

public assistance

 Making data-informed decisions

for our region & state

Key difference: Budgets vary depending on age

• f household members, and 48 vs. 700

Key difference: Location matters!

Federal poverty guideline

Source: Self-Sufficiency Standard 2017, ACS, CPI Analysis: Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability and Worksystems

66% 59% 38% 33% 11% 9%

• 11%
• 13%

Income taxes Child care Housing Miscellaneous Transportation Household income Food Health care

PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN REAL COST OF HOUSEHOLD EXPENSES VS. INCREASE IN MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME

ONE ADULT + INFANT + PRESCHOOLER MULTNOMAH COUNTY, 2008–2017

* * Percentage increase for income taxes assumes

household income kept pace with increase in Standard wages

$90,000 $89,900 $89,100 $65,600 $59,600 $40,900 $44,000 $39,800 $38,200 $34,900 $34,600 $29,400 $28,300 $26,600 $25,200 $24,700 $23,700 $23,500 $22,400 $22,200 Registered Nurses General and Operations Managers Postsecondary Teachers Business Operations Specialists Sales Representatives, Wholesale and… Median wage of all occupations Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks Secretaries and Administrative Assistants Office Clerks Customer Service Representatives Teacher Assistants Stock Clerks and Order Fillers Laborers and Materials movers Janitors and Cleaners Cooks Retail Salespersons Personal Care Aides Cashiers Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers,… Total Employment, 2017 22,800 11,200 20, 800 11,200 13,900 12,100 1,183,000 12,600 13,900 16,700 15,000 12,900 10,100 19,000 23,100 22,700 25,400 11,800 34,900 19,000 Multnomah County Self-Sufficiency Annual Wage: $65,700 Family type: One adult, one preschooler, & one school-aged child

Annual wages of Portland MSA 20 largest occupations vs Self-Sufficiency Standard

Source: Emsi, Self-sufficiency standard for Oregon 2017 Analysis: Worksystems

Annual wages of various occupations vs Self-Sufficiency Standard

$92,750 $66,600 $59,300 $59,100 $45,000 $30,800 Software developers & programmers Teachers K-12 Apprenticeship trades Health care technologists Machinists & welders Nursing Assistants Total Employment, 2017 19,800 18,900 3,800 8,000 23,000 5,900 Multnomah County Self-Sufficiency Annual Wage-- $65,700 Family type: One adult, one preschooler, & one school-aged child

Source: Emsi, Self-sufficiency standard for Oregon 2017 Analysis: Worksystems

Work supports and how they help

 Oregon Health Plan (Medicaid) $370  $0  Food assistance (SNAP) $630  $450  Child care voucher $1,800  $260  Section 8 housing voucher $1,200  $600  Taxes $1,000  $230

________________ $3,500 reduction

Work supports and how they help – EOP example

Source: I-Trac Analysis: Worksystems

Work supports and how they help – EOP example

Source: I-Trac Analysis: Worksystems

Using the standard



Policy analysis

 Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability



Counseling tool



Prosperity Planner



Benchmark for wage-setting



Oregon’s three-tiered minimum wage schedule



Community indicator

 Metro Economic Value Atlas (EVA)

Who’s not meeting the standard?

Source: IPUMS-USA ACS estimates Analysis: Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability and Worksystems

66% 67% 20% 23% 14% 10%

Multnomah County Washington County Above self-sufficiency Above poverty but below self-sufficiency Below poverty

Source: IPUMS-USA 2014-2016 1 year ACS estimates, Self-Sufficiency Standard for Oregon 2017 Analysis: Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability and Worksystems

66% 35% 40% 33% 46% 71% 38% 63% 44% 58% 55% 71% 28% 47% 58% 81% 53% 78% 20% 38% 40% 37% 31% 17% 30% 24% 35% 22% 27% 17% 35% 31% 24% 12% 26% 14% 14% 27% 19% 31% 23% 12% 33% 13% 21% 20% 18% 13% 37% 21% 18% 6% 21% 8%

Share of households by income categories, Multnomah County

Above self-sufficiency Above poverty but below self-sufficiency Below poverty

Source: IPUMS-USA 2014-2016 1 year ACS estimates, Self-Sufficiency Standard for Oregon 2017 Analysis: Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability and Worksystems 67% 40% 56% 32% 53% 72% 34% 73% 56% 30% 41% 64% 81% 51% 78% 23% 41% 30% 46% 33% 20% 47% 16% 28% 47% 39% 25% 14% 32% 16% 10% 20% 13% 23% 14% 9% 19% 11% 16% 23% 19% 12% 6% 17% 6%

Share of households by income categories, Washington County

Below poverty Above poverty but below self- sufficiency Above self- sufficiency

Next steps: Visualization tool

Thank you! Questions?

hacosta@worksystems.org 503.478.7327

https://www.worksystems.org/news-events/news/worksystems- releases-self-sufficiency-standard