Population Statistics Beyond 2011: Research on Census Alternatives - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Population Statistics Beyond 2011: Research on Census Alternatives - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Population Statistics Beyond 2011: Research on Census Alternatives Scottish Privacy Forum 17 January 2012 Alternative Sources National Records of Scotland (NRS) NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present;

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Population Statistics Beyond 2011: Research on Census Alternatives Scottish Privacy Forum 17 January 2012

Alternative Sources National Records of Scotland (NRS)

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Overview

  • 1. Background
  • 2. The proposed research
  • 3. How we protect privacy
  • 4. Discussion
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Purpose and Scope

  • Establish and test alternative models to underpin

population and socio-demographic statistics after the 2011 Census

  • Feasibility research to report in 2014 (phase 1), followed

by a longer term programme of work to pilot, and implement an alternative model(s)

  • Under Scottish 2011 Spending Review allocation which

also includes wider data linkage framework to support social policy research

  • Office for National Statistics (ONS) Beyond 2011

programme for England and Wales established April 2011

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Key Drivers

  • Cost and viability of traditional census
  • User needs and expectations: quality and efficiency
  • New opportunities: technology and data
  • House of Commons Treasury Committee Report

‘Counting the Population’, 2008

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Key Elements

  • Potential building blocks

– Administrative data – Address Register – New data collection (census and survey based

  • ptions)
  • Benchmark against 2011 Census
  • Use record linkage to learn about the data and develop

solutions

  • Not all research involves personal data
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Record Linkage and the Census

  • The traditional census involves a number of data

collections and uses identified records and record linkage in the production process

  • Census uses: Scottish Longitudinal Study, Scottish

Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study

  • Organisational and technical infrastructure for the

traditional census can be applied

  • This project: a wider range of sources set up for other,

administrative purposes which can be joined together

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Data sources being considered

  • NHS Central Register (NHSCR)
  • Community Health Index
  • Higher Education Student Record
  • Further Education Student Record
  • School Census
  • Electoral Register
  • Department of Work and Pensions (DWP)/HM Revenue

and Customs (HMRC) Customer Information System

  • Northern Ireland No allocations to migrant workers
  • Surveys
  • Address registers (Census and One Scotland Gazetteer)
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

The benefits: why use identified data

  • Collected for specific purpose, rules and definitions used

not usually consistent with the needs of estimating resident population

  • Coverage: geographic or demographic
  • Timing and currency: variable
  • Quality (completeness, accuracy, consistency): often

unknown

  • No cross-systems consistency
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

NHSCR population counts compared with NRS Mid-Year population estimates: 2010, Council areas, % difference

  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

S C O TL A N D A b e rd e e n C ity A b e rd e e n sh ire A n g u s A rg yll & B u te C la ckm a n n a n sh ire D u m frie s & G a llo w a y D u n d e e C ity E a st A yrsh ire E a st D u n b a rto n sh ire E a st L

  • th

ia n E a st R e n fre w sh ire E d in b u rg h , C ity o f E ile a n S ia r Fa lkirk Fife G la sg

  • w

C ity H ig h la n d In ve rclyd e M id lo th ia n M

  • ra

y N

  • rth

A yrsh ire N

  • rth

L a n a rksh ire O rkn e y Isla n d s P e rth & K in ro ss R e n fre w sh ire S co ttish B

  • rd

e rs S h e tla n d Isla n d s S

  • u

th A yrsh ire S

  • u

th L a n a rksh ire S tirlin g W e st D u n b a rto n sh ire W e st L

  • th

ia n

Local Authority

O verco u n t % ag e

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

NHSCR population counts compared with NRS Mid-Year population estimates: 2010, age, % difference

  • 20%
  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% All Ages 0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 - 89 90+ Age groups Overcount %age

Glasgow City Aberdeen City Perth & Kinross Shetland Islands

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

DWP Customer Information System population counts compared with NRS Mid-Year population estimates: 2010, Council areas, % difference

  • 20.0%
  • 15.0%
  • 10.0%
  • 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

SCO TLAND Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Angus Argyll & Bute Clackmannanshire Dumfries & G alloway Dundee City East Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire East Lothian East Renfrewshire Edinburgh, City Eilean Siar Falkirk Fife G lasgow City Highland Inverclyde Midlothian Moray North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire O rkney Islands Perth & Kinross Renfrewshire Scottish Borders Shetland South Ayrshire South Lanarkshire Stirling W est Dunbartonshire W est Lothian

Local authority Overcount % age

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Main conclusions

  • No source uniquely capable
  • f providing a solution
  • Need to use in combination
  • Good understanding of the

relevant quality characteristics is a key prerequisite

HESA Electoral register Other Local Data CIS NHSCR School Census Resident Population

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

The research: process and objectives

  • Link each source where we have identified data to the

2011 census to understand its coverage and other quality characteristics

  • Build a prototype ‘statistical population spine’ [a

population count by age, sex, small area] and assess against a benchmark by merging two or more sources – Two options: prototype is independent of the 2011 census (may not be possible for a while) or prototype uses census information (more likely in the short term)

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Record Linkage

  • Bring together records which are likely to belong to the

same person

  • In the absence of universal person ID number using

Name Address (postcode) Date of Birth Gender and a history of name and address where available

  • The only way to ensure that people with records in more

than one source are not double-counted

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Data items: likely (1)

  • NHS Central Register – name (history), date of birth,

postcode of residence, NHS number, registration date, if previously registered elsewhere in the UK, ‘protected’ cases excluded

  • Community Health Index – NHS number, address
  • Higher Education (HE) Student Record – name, date
  • f birth, postcode, HE institution, year and type of

course, Scottish students registered to study in the rest

  • f the UK
  • Further Education (FE) Student record – name, date
  • f birth, postcode, FE institution, year and type of

course,

  • School Census – date of birth, postcode, gender,

Scottish Candidate Number

  • Electoral Register – name and address, full register
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Data items: likely (2)

  • Surveys – name, date of birth (age), address, gender
  • Birth Registrations – name ,address, date of birth,

mother’s name

  • Death Registrations – name, address, date of birth,

date of death

  • Census – name, address, date of birth, gender, address

last year

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Data items possible/longer term

  • Higher Education Student Record – as before for

students studying in Scotland

  • School Census – name
  • Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)/HM

Revenues and Custom (HMRC) Customer Information System – name (history), address (history), date of birth, date of death, marital/relationship status for persons in contact with DWP or HMRC

  • Northern Ireland No allocations to migrant workers –

address, age and gender

  • Other locally held data
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Protecting privacy and confidentiality: legal safeguards

  • 1920 Census Act
  • Statistics and

Registration Service Act 2007

  • Data Protection Act
  • Human Rights Act
  • Confidentiality provisions:

unlawful disclosure of personal data is a criminal offence

  • Purpose: processing for

statistical purposes only. No feedback to

  • riginating administrative

systems or use for

  • perational purposes
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Protecting privacy and confidentiality: technical and organisational measures

  • 1. Compliance with Her Majesty’s Government (HMG) Security

Policy Framework: technical, procedural and physical security controls; independent review of security and Information Assurance process for census 2011 is published on the National Records of Scotland website: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/census/censushm2011/policy- and-methodology/index.html

  • 2. Separation of matching and content data: analysis on de-

identified data

  • 3. Minimum data travel: single transfer to NRS required
  • 4. Personnel: security induction and vetting, follow-up training
  • 5. Access control policies
  • 6. Statistical disclosure control for outputs
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Protecting privacy and confidentiality: Public engagement and acceptability

  • Legal compliance is not enough, not just about data

protection

  • Viability of a potential alternative solution or the

traditional census itself is dependent on public trust

  • Public acceptability research, consultation and

transparency of approach; increase awareness and understand concerns as part of the Privacy Impact Assessment (PIA) process

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Summary

  • Clear public benefit
  • Minimum information necessary used and processing

tightly specified

  • Under strict legal constraints
  • Technical and organisational measures to protect

confidentiality

  • Transparency and Public Awareness
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Not just a privacy threat

  • ‘Persons, households and firms can live in peace, they

are not harassed with unnecessary inquiries. Data security is better because of the reduction in the number

  • f persons handling the data... Only the computer ‘sees’

the data because it is all in electronic format’. Register Based Statistics in the Nordic Countries, UN 2007

  • ‘There is evidence that the public is more relaxed about

privacy, particularly as a value to be traded off against good or improved public service, than experts and privacy campaigners often realise (cf. Kelsey 2009, Bradwell 2010)’ Kieron O’Hara Review of Privacy and Transparency, 2011

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Thank you