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population of urban territories in changing environment condition - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 23, 2023 145 likes •329 views

Prediction of morbidity in the population of urban territories in changing environment condition Nataliya V. Efimova Zarodnyuk T.S., Gornov A.Yu., Anikin A.S. East Siberian Institute of Medical and Environmental Research, Angarsk, Matrosov

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SLIDE 1

Prediction of morbidity in the population of urban territories in changing environment condition

Nataliya V. Efimova

Zarodnyuk T.S., Gornov A.Yu., Anikin A.S. East Siberian Institute of Medical and Environmental Research, Angarsk, Matrosov Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory of SB RAS, Irkutsk

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SLIDE 2

Main domains

  • f ecopathy

Natural

Anthropogenic Social Cultural

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SLIDE 3

The main causes of environmental health disturbances

Occupational factors Air pollutions Drink water pollutions Non balanced, dangerous nutrition Psychological stresses Radiological factors

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SLIDE 4

Concentration F in air 1,4-6,2 parts of Maximum allowable concentration Index of hazard (all) HI=28 Risk for Osseous system HI=1,9

Air pollution (C/RRfC)

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SLIDE 5

Verification of calculated results forecast « Shelekhov air pollution – children morbidity», ‰

1-2 3-6 7-14 1-2 1-2 1-2 3-6 3-6 3-6 7-14 7-14 7-14 Acute respiratory disease

ВОЗРАСТ

Muscles-ossous disease disease of skin (noninfection) All morbidity

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

  • calculated
  • real

(Baturin et al. 2004)

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SLIDE 6

Results of forecasting « Shelekhov air pollution – muscles-osseous morbidity», ‰

1-2 г 3-6л 7-14л 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Age groups

2010

2000 1995

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SLIDE 7
  • 2

2 4 6 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л

  • 3
  • 1

1 3 5 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л

  • 5

5 10 15 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л

  • 5

5 10 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л

  • 0,6
  • 0,1

0,4 0,9 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

Intake group Exposed group

Female Мale Female Мale

  • 10

10 20 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 6
  • 1

4 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 1,0
  • 0,5

0,0 0,5 1,0 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 7
  • 2

3 8 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

Дистальны

  • 0,6
  • 0,1

0,4 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 10

10 20 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 3
  • 1

1 3 5 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 5

5 10 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

  • 1,0
  • 0,5

0,0 0,5 1,0 5л 6л 7л 8л 9л 10л 11л 12л 13л 14л 15л 16л

Growth of length and thickness of bones

Пястные кости Проксимальные фаланги Средние фаланги Дистальные фаланги Толщина стенки диафиза Пястные кости Проксимальные фаланги Средние фаланги Дистальные фаланги Толщина стенки диафиза

(Shalina et al.2008)

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SLIDE 8

Characteristic of groups adolescents

20 40 60 80 intake group exposed group absense of synostosis inadequete mineralization pseudoepiphisis

  • steoporosios

norma R-way frequency higth excretion F excretion F median

%

Mkmol/l

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SLIDE 9

33

  • 43
  • 1,2

73 35 26 44

  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 max temperature (ºC) min temperature(ºC) average temperature(ºC) relative humidity(%) low wind velocity (%) fog (%) temperature inversion (%)

Meteorological conditions of Bratsk ( Irkutsk region)

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SLIDE 10

Air pollution

(parts of Maximum allowable concentration (MAC)

2005 year 1990

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SLIDE 11

Correlation (Rs) between air pollution and incidence of respiratory organs

(on weekly data)

0.46 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.75 Methanetiol Methanetiol

H2S H2S NO2 SO2

Acute respiratory disease Chronic bronchitis Acute respiratory disease Chronic bronchitis Acute respiratory disease Acute respiratory disease 0.8 Induced Disturbances

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SLIDE 12

Forecast of the children incidence

У = Z-1,69×X1+3,2×X2+16,8×X3+0,0085×X4+245,2×X5 +23,2×X6

где У - incidence (per 1000 children) Z - average incidence in intake territory X1 - T (°С) X2 – humidity (%), X3 – vel. wind (м/s) X4 – atm. pressury (мм Hg) X5 – summary air pollution F-contaning (HI) X6 - summary air pollution S-contaning (HI) R2 =0,93

Divergent calculated and real incidence Bratsk = 16,2 %, Shelekhov = 9,5 %

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SLIDE 13

1 –average meteorological parameters, pollution < MAC 2 – average meteorological parameters pollution P = 43, low wind velocity 3 – average meteorological parameters, pollution < MAC, 80% humidity 4 – average meteorological parametersто же index of sulfure pollution P= 18 5 – average meteorological parametersто же index of fluoride pollution P= 6 6 – negative meteorological conditions for dispersion, winter (t= - 22˚С), P=43

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1 2 3 4 5 6

Attributive risk, %

The forecast of children׳s respiratory incidence

Induced Disturbances

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SLIDE 14

▪

The average calculated data were as follows: in children - 1756 cases per 1000 persons (95% confidence interval 1126

  • 2386

‰), in adolescents - 1256 ‰ (1122 - 1391 ‰), in adults 846 ‰ (558 - 1134 ‰). Comparison of calculated and actual incidence rates showed: the actual indicator in children exceeded the upper limit of the estimated incidence by 3.6%, adolescents by 6.7%. Primary morbidity is 8.5% below the lower estimated border In the adult population in recent years. Note that the mean differences in all groups are statistically insignificant (p> 0.05), which reflects the good approximating properties

  • f

the model and allows using it for further research

i i i i i i i

LnC a LnV LnP a V a W a T a a Z  +  +  +  +  =

5 4 3 2 1

) (

Result of medical socio-ecological model

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SLIDE 15

Assessment of a contribution of factors to incidence

adults adolescents

0,6 16,9 6,1 35,6 38,3 2,5 0,4 21,3 7,4 35,7 49 0,1

10 20 30 40 50

до ФЦП после ФЦП

children

2 3,1 3,2 30,9 57,1 3,6 1,1 3,4 3,4 27,1 63,7 1,1

20 40 60 80

до ФЦП после ФЦП

1,2 2,6 6,7 50,4 37,9 1,1 0,7 3 7,3 45,2 43,3 0,4 10 20 30 40 50 60

до Ф ЦП после Ф ЦП

T W V P C Q

the received results testify about

  • preservation of the significant

contribution of technogenic pollution to variability of incidence of the population,

  • a bigger role of social factors in

formation of health of teenagers

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SLIDE 16

⚫ Finally, physician/scientists are directing or collaborating in

multidisciplinary research that capitalizes on both clinical knowledge in individuals and epidemiologic information from populations and results in new knowledge of clinically translatable value. They work on a wide variety of research topics and use a full range of clinical, epidemiologic and environmental health science skills to shed light on the environmental exposures and complex causal pathways that underlie the pathogenesis and progression of disease

⚫ Environmental medicine is not just about clinical practice for

patients concerned about environmental diseases; thus, we welcome ubmissions of epidemiologic and communitybased studies that have relevance to the public health practice of environmental medicine

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SLIDE 17

Thank for your attention!