Population Estimates, The Census, And You! Master Clerks Academy - - PDF document

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Population Estimates, The Census, And You!

Master Clerks Academy II UNC‐Chapel Hill School of Government

Mike Cline, PhD State Demographer Office of State Budget & Management, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section Michael.Cline@osbm.nc.gov @NCDemographer

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• State of North Carolina – OSBM
• Demographic Analysis
• Advise & Assist Governor’s Office & State Agencies in Planning
• Population Estimates
• Certified Municipal & County Estimates
• Standard/Revised County and Municipal Estimates
• Population Projections
• County Projections (20 Year Horizon)
• Federal‐State Cooperative for Population Estimates
• Provide vital statistics and group quarters data to Census Bureau
• Review & comment:
• preliminary population estimates
• input data for population estimates (e.g. housing unit estimates)
• Assist with planning, review & promotion of Census 2020

State Demographer

https://demography.osbm.nc.gov https://www.osbm.nc.gov/facts‐figures/demographics

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Population Estimate Change, 2010‐2018 Geographic Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent

United States 308,758,105 327,167,434 18,409,329 6.0 California 37,254,523 39,557,045 2,302,522 6.2 Texas 25,146,114 28,701,845 3,555,731 14.1 Florida 18,804,580 21,299,325 2,494,745 13.3 New York 19,378,124 19,542,209 164,085 0.8 Pennsylvania 12,702,873 12,807,060 104,187 0.8 Illinois 12,831,572 12,741,080 ‐90,492 ‐0.7 Ohio 11,536,757 11,689,442 152,685 1.3 Georgia 9,688,709 10,519,475 830,766 8.6 North Carolina 9,535,736 10,383,620 847,884 8.9 Michigan 9,884,117 9,995,915 111,798 1.1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. 3

North Carolina Population vs. Other States 9th Largest State at 10.4 Million

4th Largest Population Gain (848,000 people), April 2010 to July 2018

4 Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses; OSBM Population Projections, 2018 Vintage.

5.1 5.9 6.6 8.0 9.5 10.6 11.8 12.8 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2038

North Carolina Population 1970 – 2010 and Projected Through 2038

Millions of People

North Carolina Population Change – Historic and Projected

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In‐Migration Now Major Component of Population Growth

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Components of Population Change in North Carolina by Period, 1950 ‐ 2018

76% 87% 53% 72% 24% 13% 47% 28%

VIRGINIA TENNESSEE SOUTH CAROLINA GEORGIA NORTH CAROLINA

Domestic International

Source: US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

387,595 359,822 290,164 200,978

Net Migration

More Migration to North Carolina vs Neighbors in Recent Years

Net Domestic and International Migration, April 2010 to July 2018

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560,003

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Components of Change for the Ten States with the Largest Numeric Population Change, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018

Geographic Area Population Change Natural Increase Net Migration Percent of Change Due To: International Domestic Total Natural Increase Net Migration United States 18,409,329 10,714,959 7,694,370 (X) 7,694,370 58.2 41.8 Texas 3,555,731 1,710,031 813,341 1,019,434 1,832,775 48.1 51.5 Florida 2,494,745 252,109 1,072,348 1,160,387 2,232,735 10.1 89.5 California 2,302,522 1,984,436 1,043,561

• 710,393

333,168 86.2 14.5 North Carolina 847,884 282,498 157,614 402,389 560,003 33.3 66.0 Georgia 830,766 439,694 182,190 205,405 387,595 52.9 46.7 Washington 811,051 294,090 221,434 295,480 516,914 36.3 63.7 Arizona 779,358 269,300 145,998 362,015 508,013 34.6 65.2 Colorado 666,248 254,332 84,970 321,782 406,752 38.2 61.1 Virginia 516,630 314,663 263,741

• 62,763

200,978 60.9 38.9 South Carolina 458,746 96,014 45,047 314,775 359,822 20.9 78.4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2018 Vintage. Components of change include a residual not shown here.

1,160,387 1,019,434 402,389 362,015 321,782 314,775 295,480 219,385 206,712 205,405

Source: US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

Net Migration (cont’d)

Net Domestic Migration Larger Than All But Florida and Texas

Net Domestic Migration for the 10 States with the Largest Number of Net Domestic Migrants, April 2010 to July 2018

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Population Change by County ‐ April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018 Population Growth in NC Since 2010 Has Been Robust, But Uneven

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Projected Population Change, July 1, 2019 – July 1, 2038 Projected Growth in Majority of NC Counties

NCDOT DIVISIONS IN RED

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Projected Percent Population Change by Age Group, 2019‐2038

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18.5% 11.3% 8.5% 20.1% 7.7% 55.3% 21.7% <5 5‐17 18‐24 25‐54 55‐64 65+ Total

Population 65 and Over is Projected to Grow More Than 2 1/2 Times Faster Than Total Population in the Next 19 years

Source: OSBM, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section, Population Projections, Vintage 2018.

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Counting and Estimating North Carolina Population

Largest County: 1,088,350 Smallest County: 4,260 Total Population (2018): 10.4 Million In Municipalities: 5.8 Million (56%) In Unincorporated Areas: 4.6 Million (44%) 48,618 Sq. Miles

Source: NC OSBM, 2018 County and Municipal Population Estimates

Largest Incorporated City: 852,992 Smallest Incorporated Village: 23

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Average Population Size and Population Change by Municipality Size in 2010

5 of Every 8 Municipalities Gained Population from 2010 to 2018

Total Population Change Percent With: Municipality Size* April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent Number Loss Growth 100,000+ 267,730 302,721 34,990 12.1 9 0.0 100.0 50,000-99,999 69,232 74,863 5,630 7.7 8 12.5 87.5 25,000-49,999 33,970 38,137 4,167 12.0 17 11.8 88.2 15,000-24,999 19,144 20,972 1,828 9.0 25 44.0 56.0 10,000-14,999 12,017 13,706 1,689 13.9 23 17.4 82.6 5,000-9,999 7,032 7,653 621 8.7 50 28.0 72.0 2,500-4,999 3,603 3,885 282 8.1 90 23.3 76.7 1,000-2,499 1,621 1,697 76 4.8 111 36.0 63.1 < 1,000 459 466 8 1.0 220 46.4 50.5 All 9,498 10,551 1,052 5.1 553 35.3 63.3

Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. Includes Spencer Mountain & Centerville *Population as of 2010

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Twenty Largest Municipalities in 2018

Total Population Change Rank Municipality April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent 1 Charlotte 731,424 852,992 121,568 16.6 2 Raleigh 403,892 464,451 60,559 15.0 3 Greensboro 269,666 292,286 22,620 8.4 4 Durham 228,330 265,055 36,725 16.1 5 Winston-Salem 229,617 243,445 13,828 6.0 6 Fayetteville 200,564 209,028 8,464 4.2 7 Cary 135,234 162,321 27,087 20.0 8 Wilmington 106,476 121,910 15,434 14.5 9 High Point 104,371 112,997 8,626 8.3 10 Asheville 83,393 93,621 10,228 12.3 11 Concord 79,066 92,568 13,502 17.1 12 Greenville 84,554 89,660 5,106 6.0 13 Gastonia 71,741 76,298 4,557 6.4 14 Jacksonville 70,145 75,310 5,165 7.4 15 Chapel Hill 57,233 63,178 5,945 10.4 16 Huntersville 46,773 61,220 14,447 30.9 17 Rocky Mount 57,685 54,644

• 3,041
• 5.3

18 Burlington 50,042 53,623 3,581 7.2 19 Apex 37,476 52,842 15,366 41.0 20 Wilson 49,167 49,054

• 113
• 0.2

Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

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Twenty Municipalities with Largest Numeric Population Gain, 2010‐2018

Total Population Change Rank Municipality April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent 1 Charlotte 731,424 852,992 121,568 16.6 2 Raleigh 403,892 464,451 60,559 15.0 3 Durham 228,330 265,055 36,725 16.1 4 Cary 135,234 162,321 27,087 20.0 5 Greensboro 269,666 292,286 22,620 8.4 6 Wilmington 106,476 121,910 15,434 14.5 7 Apex 37,476 52,842 15,366 41.0 8 Huntersville 46,773 61,220 14,447 30.9 9 Winston-Salem 229,617 243,445 13,828 6.0 10 Concord 79,066 92,568 13,502 17.1 11 Asheville 83,393 93,621 10,228 12.3 12 Holly Springs 24,661 34,068 9,407 38.1 13 Fuquay-Varina 17,937 26,924 8,987 50.1 14 High Point 104,371 112,997 8,626 8.3 15 Mooresville 32,711 41,255 8,544 26.1 16 Fayetteville 200,564 209,028 8,464 4.2 17 Morrisville 18,576 26,041 7,465 40.2 18 Wake Forest 30,117 37,279 7,162 23.8 19 Cornelius 24,866 31,737 6,871 27.6 20 Leland 13,527 20,297 6,770 50.0

Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

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Twenty Fastest Growing Municipalities, 2010‐2018

Total Population Change Rank Municipality April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent 1 Rolesville 3,786 6,635 2,849 75.3 2

• St. James

3,165 5,353 2,188 69.1 3 Bermuda Run 1,725 2,665 940 54.5 4 Fontana Dam 15 23 8 53.3 5 Harrisburg 11,526 17,469 5,943 51.6 6 Falcon 258 390 132 51.2 7 Fuquay-Varina 17,937 26,924 8,987 50.1 8 Leland 13,527 20,297 6,770 50.0 9 Waxhaw 9,859 14,249 4,390 44.5 10 Holly Ridge 1,268 1,825 557 43.9 11 Stem 463 656 193 41.7 12 Apex 37,476 52,842 15,366 41.0 13 Morrisville 18,576 26,041 7,465 40.2 14 Holly Springs 24,661 34,068 9,407 38.1 15 Elon 9,409 12,695 3,286 34.9 16 Knightdale 11,401 15,305 3,904 34.2 17 Navassa 1,505 2,001 496 33.0 18 Clayton 16,116 21,158 5,042 31.3 19 Shallotte 3,675 4,827 1,152 31.3 20 Huntersville 46,773 61,220 14,447 30.9

Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

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11/14/2019 9 Census Bureau & State Demographer Key Dates

March: County Estimates May: Place Estimates Housing Unit Estimates June: County ASRE Estimates (Age, Sex, Race, Ethnicity) December: State Estimates December: HU Estimates Review July: NC Demographic Information Survey End of August: Preliminary Municipal Estimates September 15th: Certified Municipal/County Estimates End of October: County ASRE Estimates & Projections September 9th(Deadline): Comments on Preliminary Estimates Census Bureau State Demographer June: Preliminary County Estimates Local Government Input Note: Contact State Demographer when challenging CB estimates michael.cline@osbm.nc.gov May: Update/Confirm Point of Contact

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State Demographer: Key Dates for Local Governments (2020 Cycle) Date Activity May 15th Letter/E‐mail to local governments to confirm Point of Contact (POC) June 14th Last day to submit POC Updates June 29th E‐mail to POCs with link to survey July 24th Deadline for NC Demographic information Survey Entries August 3rd Deadline for Municipality to submit local special census count* August 26th Preliminary estimates sent to POC for review September 1st Deadline for Municipality to submit special census count (US Census Bureau)^ September 9th Last day for local government comments September 15th Certified Estimates Released September 28th Letters Sent to POCs where certified estimates differ from preliminary November 15th Last Day to Submit Formal Appeal *Limited to municipalities or portions < 500 people ^Can be requested by Census Bureau for a fee. Not available this close to Census 2020.

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Municipal and County Population Estimates

• State Demographer, Office of State Budget and Management
• State, County, Municipalities, Subcounty Areas
• Previous year certified, standard and revised estimates
• Estimates used by other agencies for planning/statistical reporting
• Estimates used by DOR, DOT and other agencies to distribute state

funds

• Census Bureau
• State, County, Incorporated Places, Subcounty Areas
• Previous year and revised annual estimates
• Estimates used to weight Census Bureau Surveys (i.e. ACS)
• Estimates used by agencies for planning/statistical reporting
• Estimates used to distribute various federal funds

Population Estimates Require Accurate 2020 Census Count!

Estimates Used for Planning and to Distribute Funds

Symptomatic indicators and trends estimate municipal and county populations annually.

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Overview of Methods Employed ‐ Boundaries

Municipal Boundary Differences of Municipal (Incorporated Place) Population Estimates for July 1, 2018

Census Bureau NC Standard (& Revised) NC Certified Estimates Boundaries as of: January 1, 2018 July 1, 2018 July 1, 2019 Source: Census Bureau BAS Source: NC Demographic Information Survey

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Overview of Methods Employed – CB / OSBM Differences

Census Bureau North Carolina OSBM County Estimates Administrative Records

• Births
• Deaths
• IRS (for net migration)

Average of: (1) Adjusted Census Estimates (2) Regression [vehicle regist.; births (3yrs); school enroll. (1‐8 gr.)] Municipal (Incorporated Place) Estimates Change in Housing Units Weighted Average of 3 methods: (1) Constant Share (Rate of change same as county) (2) Partitioned Change w/ different rates of change (1) Core City (Boundary as of 2000) (2) Inner Edge (Area annexed from 2000‐2010) (3) Outer Edge (Post 2010 Annexed Areas) (3) Change in Housing Units Group Quarters Populations 1 Year lag Same as estimates year

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North Carolina Demographic Information Survey (NCDiS)

• http://ncds.osbm.nc.gov/
• Data collected from end of June through 3rd week in July
• Annexation Survey (Municipalities Only)
• New Annexations Since January 2010 through July 1 of Current Year
• New Building Activity on Previously Reported Annexations
• IMPORTANT FOR CERTIFIED ESTIMATES
• New Construction & Mobile Home Survey
• Supplement to Census Bureau Building Permit Survey
• Group Quarters Survey
• Verify Location, Name, Operations of Existing Facility
• Indicate New or Missing Facilities
• Provide Population Counts for Some Facilities

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North Carolina Demographic information Survey http://ncds.osbm.nc.gov North Carolina Demographic information Survey ‐ Review http://ncds.osbm.nc.gov

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How to Review Population Estimates

• Missing Annexation
• Certified and Standard population estimates should not match

IF you have had annexations within the last year that included

• ccupied housing
• Significant Deviation from Past Trends
• Decline/growth after growth/decline
• Rapid change after slow/no change
• Difference Between Population Trend and Other Indicators
• Building permit growth vs. population decline
• University dorm population increase vs. population decline
• Review Estimates @ http://ncds.osbm.nc.gov
• Constructive comments with backing information
• Municipalities Can Challenge Estimates After Certification

(But Process is Limited) ‐ See OSBM Budget Manual for Process https://www.osbm.nc.gov/state‐budget‐manual

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Population Projections (July 1, 2019 – July 1, 2039)

• Forecast models of time series trends (1990‐2018)
• ARIMA or Exponential Smoothing
• Total Population
• Total Race Group
• Total Hispanic Origin
• Cohort‐Component Model to “Age” population
• 3‐Year Average for fertility
• Survival Rates from 2010
• Net Migration (Trend Based on Total – Expected)
• Age‐Specific Rates from 2000‐2010
• Projection Contents
• Total by Sex & Age (Single Years of Age, 0 – 99 and 100+)
• Race by Sex & Age Groups (American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian,

Black, White, Multi‐Racial)

• Total by Hispanic Origin (Total, White, Non‐White)

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Census 2020

https://census.nc.gov/

• Constitutionally mandated headcount
• Article I, Section 2 & 14th Amendment
• All 50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Island Areas.
• All ages, races, ethnic groups, citizens and noncitizens
• Used for Apportionment
• determination of state representation (House, Electors)
• Used in redistricting
• re‐drawing of boundary lines for federal, state, and local political

boundaries

• Affects federal and state funding
• Used for decision making

What is the Census?

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11/14/2019 15 Always verify your boundaries! Census maps are generated from decades of geographic updates using many different technologies. Do NOT assume that your Census boundaries are correct because you have not annexed recently. U S Census Bureau – Boundary & Annexation Survey (BAS)

https://www.census.gov/programs‐surveys/bas.html

Census data is the foundation of apportionment in the US House of Representatives, drives over $1,600 per person per year in federal funding to North Carolina, and informs local planning, economic development, and services. Preparation – LUCA, BAS, PSAP, New Construction – is very important Preparation without Participation is wasted effort Local preparation partnerships – Complete Count Committees involve trusted local faces in promoting Census participation https://census.nc.gov/data‐and‐visualizations

Participation Is The Goal

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Fiscal Impacts of the Census – State

• Municipal State Street‐Aid (Powell Bill) Allocations
• 75% of funds ($110.5 Million)
• Per Capita: $19.56
• Department of Revenue
• Sales & Use Tax Distributions Using Per Capita Method:
• $1.4 Billion
• Per Capita: $184.67

OSBM Certified Population Estimates Require Accurate 2020 Census Count!

Source: North Carolina Dept. of Transportation, 2018 North Carolina State Street‐Aid Allocations to Municipalities ; North Carolina Dept. of Revenue, Collections for Month Ending Reports for 2017.

$1.5 Billion in State Funds Distributed to Municipalities & Counties

Estimated amount of funds distributed annually to North Carolina based upon OSBM certified population estimates (2 largest state revenue allocations).

Census staff are meeting with local elected leaders – state, county, and municipal – to encourage the formation of CCCs. Anyone can form a CCC Churches, schools/campuses, non‐profits, neighborhood, Businesses, clubs/organizations, … anyone! CCCs are NOT identical! CCCs will vary in organization and operation because the communities they serve vary All CCCs should – Assess, Plan, Budget, and Communicate

Complete Count Committees ‐ CCCs

https://census.nc.gov/

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Thank You!

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Michael (Mike) E. Cline, PhD State Demographer Economic & Demographic Analysis Section North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management Michael.Cline@osbm.nc.gov 919‐236‐0686 Twitter: @NCDemographer For Municipal & County Population Estimates and County Population Projections, See: https://demography.osbm.nc.gov

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