Political Economy/Challenging Environments How can political - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Policy Session on “ Political Economy/Challenging Environments ” How can political institutions and government policies be used to reduce conflict, help with post-conflict reconstruction and avoid a fall back into conflict? The Case of South Sudan Luka Biong Deng Kuol Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) University of Juba June 2016 IGC, London, UK 11-1

Why civil war again in South Sudan? • Challenges of Transitions • Challenges of Liberation Movement • Death of Strategic and Visionary Leader • Reliance on Oil • Weak Institutions Violent Conflict 11-2

What damage caused by civil war? The Economic Cost 11-3

What Damage Caused by Civil War? The Human Cost: Conflict Fatalities Source: ACLED

What Damage Caused by Civil War? The Social Tolls: The Level of Trauma in % Source: UNDP, 2015

What Damage Caused by Civil War? The Social Tolls: Monopoly of Violence Contested Source: ACLED

What Damage Caused by Civil War? Political Instability: The Level of Fragility 116 114.5 114 112.9 112 110 109 108 106 104 102.9 102 100 98 96 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: FFP, 2015

What Damage Caused by Civil War? Political Instability: The Status of Freedom 8 7 1=The most free, 7=The least free 7 6.5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5.5 5.5 5 5 5 Freedom Status 4 Political Rights Civil Liberty 3 2 1 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Freedom House, 2015

What Damage Caused by Civil War? Political Instability: The Quality of Institutions Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 CPIA Scores: 1=Low, 6=High 2.8 3 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.1 2 2 2012 2013 1.5 2014 1 0.5 0 South Sudan SSA IDA SSA Fragile Source: World Bank, 2015

Another Shock? Drastic Drop in Oil Prices

Impact Channels Source: World Bank Cheap Oil and Conflict Lower oil tax revenues Lower incomes Lower export revenues reduce demand Less stimulus Fiscal Impact BoP Impact GDP Lower transfers Higher inflation Lower growth Poverty impact

Addressing Root Causes and Impacts of Civil War Another Peace Agreement: Will it be sustained? • Elites Power-sharing: Security Sector/Non-state security actors

Addressing Root Causes and Impacts of Civil War Another Peace Agreement: Will it be sustained? • Series of Institutions and Policies Reforms South Sudan CPIA Scores, 2011-2015 3 2.5 2 2011 2012 1.5 2013 2014 2015 1 0.5 0 Overall Eco Mgt Struc Policies Soc Policies Governance Infrastructure Source: World Bank

Addressing Root Causes and Impacts of Civil War Another Peace Agreement: Will it be sustained? • Transitional Justice  African Union Commission of Inquiry  Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing  Hybrid Court  Compensation and Reparation Authority

Addressing Root Causes and Impacts of Civil War Another Peace Agreement: Will it be sustained? • Constitutionalism and System of Governance  Forging Social Contract: Permanent Constitution  System of Government: Federalism, Decentralization or both  Type of federalism: Territorial or Ethnical  Tiers of Government: 10, 21, or 28 states  Local Government, boundaries and Ethnicity

Addressing Root Causes and Impacts of Civil War Another Peace Agreement: Will it be sustained? • Political Transformation: Quality of Politics  Democracy, Politics and Political Parties  SPLM Reunification Agreement in Arusha  Other Political Parties  Civil Society  Media  Elections!