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Why civil war again in South Sudan?
- Challenges of Transitions
- Challenges of Liberation Movement
- Death of Strategic and Visionary Leader
- Reliance on Oil
- Weak Institutions
Political Economy/Challenging Environments How can political - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Political Economy/Challenging Environments How can political - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Policy Session on Political Economy/Challenging Environments How can political institutions and government policies be used to reduce conflict, help with post-conflict reconstruction and avoid a fall back into conflict? The Case of South
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What damage caused by civil war? The Economic Cost
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What Damage Caused by Civil War? The Human Cost: Conflict Fatalities
Source: ACLED
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What Damage Caused by Civil War? The Social Tolls: The Level of Trauma in %
Source: UNDP, 2015
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What Damage Caused by Civil War?
The Social Tolls: Monopoly of Violence Contested
Source: ACLED
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What Damage Caused by Civil War?
Political Instability: The Level of Fragility
Source: FFP, 2015 102.9 109 112.9 114.5 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116 2012 2013 2014 2015
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What Damage Caused by Civil War?
Political Instability: The Status of Freedom
Source: Freedom House, 2015 5.5 5.5 6 6.5 6 6 6 7 5 5 6 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2012 2013 2014 2015 1=The most free, 7=The least free Freedom Status Political Rights Civil Liberty
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What Damage Caused by Civil War?
Political Instability: The Quality of Institutions
Source: World Bank, 2015 2.1 3.2 2.7 2.1 3.2 2.7 2 3.2 2.8
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
South Sudan SSA IDA SSA Fragile CPIA Scores: 1=Low, 6=High Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) 2012 2013 2014
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Another Shock? Drastic Drop in Oil Prices
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Cheap Oil and Conflict
GDP Fiscal Impact BoP Impact Poverty impact
Lower transfers Lower growth Higher inflation Lower oil tax revenues Lower export revenues Less stimulus Lower incomes reduce demand
Impact Channels Source: World Bank
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Addressing Root Causes and Impacts of Civil War Another Peace Agreement: Will it be sustained?
- Elites Power-sharing: Security Sector/Non-state security actors
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Addressing Root Causes and Impacts of Civil War Another Peace Agreement: Will it be sustained?
- Series of Institutions and Policies Reforms
Source: World Bank
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Overall Eco Mgt Struc Policies Soc Policies Governance Infrastructure
South Sudan CPIA Scores, 2011-2015
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Addressing Root Causes and Impacts of Civil War Another Peace Agreement: Will it be sustained?
- Transitional Justice
African Union Commission of Inquiry Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing Hybrid Court Compensation and Reparation Authority
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Addressing Root Causes and Impacts of Civil War Another Peace Agreement: Will it be sustained?
- Constitutionalism and System of Governance
Forging Social Contract: Permanent Constitution System of Government: Federalism, Decentralization or both Type of federalism: Territorial or Ethnical Tiers of Government: 10, 21, or 28 states Local Government, boundaries and Ethnicity
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Addressing Root Causes and Impacts of Civil War Another Peace Agreement: Will it be sustained?
- Political Transformation: Quality of Politics