[PPT] - Physics Prospects at the HL-LHC Victoria Martin , University of PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Physics Prospects at the HL-LHC

Victoria Martin, University of Edinburgh Higgs Maxwell workshop 2016

1

SLIDE 2

LHC Run 1 (& 2)

proton-proton collisions at ATLAS and CMS

2010 √s=7 TeV, 44 pb−1
2011 √s=7 TeV, 6 fb−1
2012 √s=8 TeV, 23 fb−1
Run 2: 2015 √s=13 TeV, 4 fb−1

2

IN

SLIDE 3

LHC Run 1 (& 2)

proton-proton collisions at ATLAS and CMS

2010 √s=7 TeV, 44 pb−1
2011 √s=7 TeV, 6 fb−1
2012 √s=8 TeV, 23 fb−1
Run 2: 2015 √s=13 TeV, 4 fb−1

2

IN

Physics results!

Nearly 1000 submitted papers on

Run 1 collision data

9 papers on Run 2 data

OUT

SLIDE 4

The Nobel Prize in Physics 2013 François Englert and Peter W. Higgs

"for the theoretical discovery of a mechanism that contributes to our understanding of the origin of mass of subatomic particles, and which recently was confirmed through the discovery of the predicted fundamental particle, by the ATLAS and CMS experiments at CERN's Large Hadron Collider"

3

SLIDE 5

The Nobel Prize in Physics 2013 François Englert and Peter W. Higgs

"for the theoretical discovery of a mechanism that contributes to our understanding of the origin of mass of subatomic particles, and which recently was confirmed through the discovery of the predicted fundamental particle, by the ATLAS and CMS experiments at CERN's Large Hadron Collider"

3

SLIDE 6

The Nobel Prize in Physics 2013 François Englert and Peter W. Higgs

"for the theoretical discovery of a mechanism that contributes to our understanding of the origin of mass of subatomic particles, and which recently was confirmed through the discovery of the predicted fundamental particle, by the ATLAS and CMS experiments at CERN's Large Hadron Collider"

3

SLIDE 7

Run 1 Higgs Boson Results

All observations from the LHC consistent with a Standard Model Higgs boson with mH ~ 125 GeV.

4

Phys. Rev. D. 90, 052004 (2014)

ATLAS-CONF-044

Eur. Phys. J. C 74 (2014) 3076

arXiv:1412.8662

SLIDE 8

Run 1 Higgs Boson Results

All observations from the LHC consistent with a Standard Model Higgs boson with mH ~ 125 GeV.

4

➡ mH measured in ZZ and γγ final states consistent with 125 GeV.

Phys. Rev. D. 90, 052004 (2014)

ATLAS-CONF-044

Eur. Phys. J. C 74 (2014) 3076

arXiv:1412.8662

SLIDE 9

Parameter value 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

bb

µ

τ τ

µ

WW

µ

ZZ

µ

γ γ

µ

Run 1 LHC Preliminary CMS and ATLAS

ATLAS CMS ATLAS+CMS σ 1 ±

Run 1 Higgs Boson Results

All observations from the LHC consistent with a Standard Model Higgs boson with mH ~ 125 GeV.

4

➡It decays like a SM Higgs boson ➡ mH measured in ZZ and γγ final states consistent with 125 GeV.

Phys. Rev. D. 90, 052004 (2014)

ATLAS-CONF-044

Eur. Phys. J. C 74 (2014) 3076

arXiv:1412.8662

SLIDE 10

Parameter value 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

bb

µ

τ τ

µ

WW

µ

ZZ

µ

γ γ

µ

Run 1 LHC Preliminary CMS and ATLAS

ATLAS CMS ATLAS+CMS σ 1 ±

Run 1 Higgs Boson Results

All observations from the LHC consistent with a Standard Model Higgs boson with mH ~ 125 GeV.

4

➡It decays like a SM Higgs boson ➡ mH measured in ZZ and γγ final states consistent with 125 GeV.

Phys. Rev. D. 90, 052004 (2014)

ATLAS-CONF-044

Eur. Phys. J. C 74 (2014) 3076

Parameter value 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

µ

ttH

µ

ZH

µ

WH

µ

VBF

µ

ggF

µ

Run 1 LHC Preliminary CMS and ATLAS

ATLAS CMS ATLAS+CMS σ 1 ± σ 2 ±

➡It’s produced like a SM Higgs boson

arXiv:1412.8662

SLIDE 11

Run 1 Higgs Boson Results

All observations from the LHC consistent with a Standard Model Higgs boson with mH ~ 125 GeV.

4

➡It decays like a SM Higgs boson ➡ mH measured in ZZ and γγ final states consistent with 125 GeV.

Phys. Rev. D. 90, 052004 (2014)

ATLAS-CONF-044

Eur. Phys. J. C 74 (2014) 3076

➡It’s produced like a SM Higgs boson

arXiv:1412.8662

SLIDE 12

But not only …

5

SLIDE 13

pp

80 µb−1 total (x2)

20 µb−1 63 µb−1

inelastic

Jets

R=0.4

|y|<3.0 0.1 < pT < 2 TeV

Dijets

R=0.4

|y|<3.0 y ∗<3.0 0.3 < mjj < 5 TeV

W

fiducial 35 pb−1

nj ≥ 0

nj ≥ 1 nj ≥ 2 nj ≥ 3 nj ≥ 4 nj ≥ 5 nj ≥ 6 nj ≥ 7

Z

fiducial

nj ≥ 0

nj ≥ 1 nj ≥ 2 nj ≥ 3 nj ≥ 4 35 pb−1

nj ≥ 0

nj ≥ 1 nj ≥ 2 nj ≥ 3 nj ≥ 4 nj ≥ 5 nj ≥ 6 nj ≥ 7

t¯ t

total

e, µ+X nj ≥ 4 nj ≥ 5 nj ≥ 6 nj ≥ 7 nj ≥ 8

t

total

s-chan t-chan

2.0 fb−1

Wt

VV

total 13.0 fb−1

WW WZ ZZ

γγ

fiducial

H

fiducial

H→γγ

VBF

H→WW

ggF

H→WW H→ZZ→4ℓ H→ττ

total

Vγ

fiducial

W γ Zγ

t¯ tW

total

t¯ tZ

total

t¯ tγ

fiducial

Zjj

EWK

fiducial

Wγγ

fiducial njet=0

W±W±jj

EWK

fiducial

σ [pb]

10−3 10−2 10−1 1 101 102 103 104 105 106 1011

Theory LHC pp √s = 7 TeV Data 4.5 − 4.9 fb−1 LHC pp √s = 8 TeV Data 20.3 fb−1 LHC pp √s = 13 TeV Data 85 pb−1

Standard Model Production Cross Section Measurements

Status: Nov 2015

ATLAS Preliminary Run 1,2

√s = 7, 8, 13 TeV 6

SLIDE 14

95% CL Limits on Masses of Exotic Phenomena in TeV

7

CMS Exotica Physics Group Summary – Dec Jamboree, 2015!

stopped gluino (cloud) stopped stop (cloud) HSCP gluino (cloud) HSCP stop (cloud) q=2/3e HSCP q=3e HSCP chargino, ctau>100ns, AMSB neutralino, ctau=25cm, ECAL time

1 2 3 4 RS1(jj), k=0.1 RS1(ee,μμ), k=0.1 RS1(γγ), k=0.1 RS1(WW→4j), k=0.1 1 2 3 4 coloron(jj) x2 coloron(4j) x2 gluino(3j) x2 gluino(jjb) x2 1 2 3 4

RS Gravitons Multijet Resonances Long-Lived Particles

SSM Z'(ττ) SSM Z'(jj) SSM Z'(bb) SSM Z'(ee)+Z'(µµ) SSM W'(jj) SSM W'(lv) SSM W'(WZ→lvll) SSM W'(WZ→4j) 1 2 3 4 5

Heavy Gauge Bosons

CMS Preliminary

j+MET, vector DM=100 GeV, Λ j+MET, axial-vector DM=100 GeV, Λ j+MET, scalar DM=100 GeV, Λ γ+MET, vector DM=100 GeV, Λ γ+MET, axial-vector DM=100 GeV, Λ l+MET, ξ=+1, SI/SD DM=100 GeV, Λ l+MET, ξ=-1, SI/SD DM=100 GeV, Λ l+MET, ξ=0, SI/SD DM=100 GeV, Λ

1 2 3 4

Dark Matter

LQ1(ej) x2 LQ1(ej)+LQ1(νj) LQ2(μj) x2 LQ2(μj)+LQ2(νj) LQ3(νb) x2 LQ3(τb) x2 LQ3(τt) x2 LQ3(vt) x2 Single LQ1 (λ=1) Single LQ2 (λ=1)

1 2 3 4

Leptoquarks

e* (M=Λ) μ* (M=Λ) q* (qg) q* (qγ) b* 1 2 3 4 5 6

Excited Fermions

dijets, Λ+ LL/RR dijets, Λ- LL/RR dimuons, Λ+ LLIM dimuons, Λ- LLIM dielectrons, Λ+ LLIM dielectrons, Λ- LLIM single e, Λ HnCM single μ, Λ HnCM inclusive jets, Λ+ inclusive jets, Λ- 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021

ADD (γ+MET), nED=4, MD ADD (j+MET), nED=4, MD ADD (ee,μμ), nED=4, MS ADD (γγ), nED=4, MS ADD (jj), nED=4, MS QBH, nED=6, MD=4 TeV NR BH, nED=6, MD=4 TeV QBH (jj), nED=4, MD=4 TeV Jet Extinction Scale String Scale (jj)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Large Extra Dimensions Compositeness

TeV TeV TeV TeV TeV TeV TeV TeV TeV

SLIDE 15

8

SLIDE 16

And even …

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… a little intrigue

10

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Events / 40 GeV

1 −

10 1 10

2

10

3

10

4

10

ATLAS Preliminary

1

= 13 TeV, 3.2 fb s

Data Background-only fit

[GeV]

γ γ

m 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Data - fitted background 15 − 10 − 5 − 5 10 15

ATLAS-CONF-2015-081

Events / ( 20 GeV )

1

10 1 10

2

10

Data Fit model σ 1 ± σ 2 ±

EBEE category

(GeV)

γ γ

m

2

10 × 3

2

10 × 4

2

10 × 5

3

10

3

10 × 2

stat

σ (data-fit)/

4
2

2 4 (13 TeV)

1

2.6 fb

CMS

Preliminary Events / ( 20 GeV )

1

10 1 10

2

10

Data Fit model σ 1 ± σ 2 ±

EBEB category

(GeV)

γ γ

m

2

10 × 3

2

10 × 4

2

10 × 5

3

10

3

10 × 2

stat

σ (data-fit)/

4
2

2 4 (13 TeV)

1

2.6 fb

CMS

Preliminary

CMS-PAS-EXO-15-004

SLIDE 18

To the Future!

11

SLIDE 19

LHC → HL-LHC

12

http://hilumilhc.web.cern.ch/about/hl-lhc-project

√s = 13 TeV bunch spacing 25 ns √s = 14 TeV LHC injector upgrade New interaction region layout Crab cavity

ℒ ~ 1.6 × 1034 cm−2s−1 Pile Up ~ 40

ℒ ~ 2 × 1034 cm−2s−1 Pile Up ~ 60 luminosity levelling ℒ ~ 5 × 1034 cm−2s−1 Pile Up ~ 140

today: Higgs Maxwell meeting 2016

SLIDE 20

The Challenge of Pileup

Pileup = number of proton-proton collision per bunch crossing
Instantaneous luminosity of 5 (7) ×1034 cm−2s−1 corresponds to an average pileup
f 〈µ〉 of 140 (200).

13

Simulated pileup in ATLAS tracker

Run 1 Pile up of 23 HL-HLC Pile up of 230

SLIDE 21

ATLAS and CMS Upgrades

ATLAS and CMS will be upgraded to achieve the same or better

performance as in Run 1.

Pileup mitigation is a critical element of detector designs.
Recently released detector Scoping Documents investigate the impact
f different detector cost scenarios on physics performance.
e.g. for 2022: New tracking detectors, new trigger systems, new

timing detectors.

14

CERN-LHC

CERN-LHCC-20

ATLAS CMS

SLIDE 22

HL-LHC Analysis Techniques

Much effort is focussed on understanding how to mitigate

pileup in physics analyses

e.g. New method proposed in the literature Pileup Per Particle

Identification arXiv:1407.6013

15

High Pileup

SLIDE 23

HL-LHC Analysis Techniques

Much effort is focussed on understanding how to mitigate

pileup in physics analyses

e.g. New method proposed in the literature Pileup Per Particle

Identification arXiv:1407.6013

15 [GeV]

T

E Σ

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

[GeV]

miss x,y

RMS E 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

|<4.0, Reference

pT

R

η |<4.0, |

soft track

η | |<3.2, Middle

pT

R

η |<3.2, |

soft track

η | |<2.7, Low

pT

R

η |<2.7, |

soft track

η | ATLAS Simulation =190-210 µ =14 TeV, s t PowhegPythia t >0.1

pT

R

ATLAS: Resolution as a function of ΣET in t t̅ events: use extended tracking to reject pile-up jets

High Pileup

SLIDE 24

HL-LHC Analysis Techniques

Much effort is focussed on understanding how to mitigate

pileup in physics analyses

e.g. New method proposed in the literature Pileup Per Particle

Identification arXiv:1407.6013

15 (GeV)

Reco T

p

40 50 60 70 80 90100 200

Reco,Matched

/N

Reco

N

1 2 3 4

PF 50PU PF 140PU, aged CHS 50PU CHS 140PU, aged Puppi 50PU Puppi 140PU, aged

< 1.3 η 0 <

14 TeV

CMS Simulation Preliminary

QCD MultiJets

CMS: Rate of pileup jets/true jets for

Particle Flow algorithm (PF)
PF + rejecting charged hadrons from pileup
Using Puppi algorithm

[GeV]

T

E Σ

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

[GeV]

miss x,y

RMS E 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

|<4.0, Reference

pT

R

η |<4.0, |

soft track

η | |<3.2, Middle

pT

R

η |<3.2, |

soft track

η | |<2.7, Low

pT

R

η |<2.7, |

soft track

η | ATLAS Simulation =190-210 µ =14 TeV, s t PowhegPythia t >0.1

pT

R

ATLAS: Resolution as a function of ΣET in t t̅ events: use extended tracking to reject pile-up jets

High Pileup

SLIDE 25

HL-LHC Analysis Techniques

16

High mass final states and high collision energy lead to highly boosted and

close objects e.g. W→jj, Z→jj, t→Wb→jjb

Jet substructure techniques will be key to reconstruct some of these

signals; crucial for new high-mass objects.

Jet Substructure

SLIDE 26

HL-LHC Physics Prospects

Results are projections from refining current analyses or designing

new ones.

In some cases, several different systematic uncertainty scenarios are

presented.

Many results are presented in the context of specific models.

17

Higgs boson physics Exotics physics SUSY physics Top quark physics HH production Vector boson scattering

SLIDE 27

Higgs Boson Physics

18

HL-LHC will be a Higgs boson factory ⇒ over 100 million Higgs bosons in 3000 fb−1

SLIDE 28

➡ Over 1 million for each of the main

production mechanisms, spread

ver many decay modes
400k H→γγ
20k H→ZZ→llll
40k H→µµ
50 leptonic H→J/ψ γ

(very rare mode)

Higgs Boson Physics

18

HL-LHC will be a Higgs boson factory ⇒ over 100 million Higgs bosons in 3000 fb−1

SLIDE 29

➡ Over 1 million for each of the main

production mechanisms, spread

ver many decay modes
400k H→γγ
20k H→ZZ→llll
40k H→µµ
50 leptonic H→J/ψ γ

(very rare mode)

Higgs Boson Physics

18

bb ττ µµ cc gg γγ WW ZZ Zγ J/ψγ 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000 100000000 Total Events Non-hadronic

HL-LHC will be a Higgs boson factory ⇒ over 100 million Higgs bosons in 3000 fb−1

SLIDE 30

➡ Over 1 million for each of the main

production mechanisms, spread

ver many decay modes
400k H→γγ
20k H→ZZ→llll
40k H→µµ
50 leptonic H→J/ψ γ

(very rare mode)

Higgs Boson Physics

18

bb ττ µµ cc gg γγ WW ZZ Zγ J/ψγ 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000 100000000 Total Events Non-hadronic

HL-LHC will be a Higgs boson factory ⇒ over 100 million Higgs bosons in 3000 fb−1

SLIDE 31

➡ Over 1 million for each of the main

production mechanisms, spread

ver many decay modes
400k H→γγ
20k H→ZZ→llll
40k H→µµ
50 leptonic H→J/ψ γ

(very rare mode)

Higgs Boson Physics

18

bb ττ µµ cc gg γγ WW ZZ Zγ J/ψγ 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000 100000000 Total Events Non-hadronic

gg

VBF WH ZH ttH 1000000 10000000 100000000

HL-LHC will be a Higgs boson factory ⇒ over 100 million Higgs bosons in 3000 fb−1

SLIDE 32

WW, bb ̅

19

ZH, H→bb ̅

[GeV]

γ γ

m 100 120 140 160 200

Background subtracted events Signal Fit

Events / ( 2 GeV ) 100 200 300

=14 TeV s ,

1

L dt = 3000 fb

∫

Simulation Background Fit

ATLAS Simulation Preliminary

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-012

Higgs Boson Peaks with 3000 fb−1

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-014

[GeV]

300

, PU = 140 , PU = 140

[GeV]

4l

M

100 150 200 250 300

Events/2.0 GeV

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

4l → ZZ* → Phase I age1k: H 4l → ZZ* → Phase II: H 4l → Phase I age1k: Z/ZZ 4l → Phase II: Z/ZZ

, PU = 140

1

14 TeV, 3000 fb

CMS Simulation

, PU = 140

1

14 TeV, 3000 fb

CMS Simulation

H→ZZ →ℓℓℓℓ

tt̅H, H→γγ 1 lepton

VBF, H→WW

CERN-LHCC-2015-010

SLIDE 33

VBF H→WW

Table 35. The ∆µ/µ and significance for VBF H → WW(∗) are shown for the three scoping scenarios. Results with and without the theoretical uncertainties on the VBF or ggF Higgs boson production are included.

Scoping Scenario without theo. unc. with theo. unc.

∆µ/µ Z0-value (σ) ∆µ/µ Z0-value (σ)

Reference 0.14 8.0 0.20 5.7 Middle 0.20 5.4 0.25 4.4 Low 0.30 3.5 0.39 2.7

Used to motivate the ATLAS upgrade detector design in the Scoping

Document.

Two forward jets in the detector

[MeV]

jj

M 500 1000 1500 2000

3

10 × Events 50 100 150

t t WZ/ZZ WW Single Top Z+jets W+jets dd 125 ggf 125 vbf Data SM (stat)

ATLAS Internal

1

L dt = 3.0 ab

∫

=14 TeV, s + 2 jet ν e ν µ / ν µ ν e → WW → H

ATLAS Internal

1

L dt = 3.0 ab

∫

=14 TeV, s + 2 jet ν e ν µ / ν µ ν e → WW → H

KS: 0.00

[MeV]

jj

M 500 1000 1500 2000

3

10 × Events 50 100 150

t t WZ/ZZ WW Single Top Z+jets W+jets dd 125 ggf 125 vbf Data SM (stat)

ATLAS Internal

1

L dt = 3.0 ab

∫

=14 TeV, s + 2 jet ν e ν µ / ν µ ν e → WW → H

ATLAS Internal

1

L dt = 3.0 ab

∫

=14 TeV, s + 2 jet ν e ν µ / ν µ ν e → WW → H

KS: 0.00

[MeV]

jj

M 500 1000 1500 2000

3

10 × Events 50 100

t t WZ/ZZ WW Single Top Z+jets W+jets dd 125 ggf 125 vbf Data SM (stat)

ATLAS Internal

1

L dt = 3.0 ab

∫

=14 TeV, s + 2 jet ν e ν µ / ν µ ν e → WW → H

ATLAS Internal

1

L dt = 3.0 ab

∫

=14 TeV, s + 2 jet ν e ν µ / ν µ ν e → WW → H

KS: 0.00

(d)

Reference Middle Low

Mass of two forward jets:

SLIDE 34

4l 4l 4l

q q q q H W,Z W,Z

W,Z

κ

q

g g t t H t t

t

κ g g H b,t

b,t

κ

Still Golden: H→ZZ→ℓℓℓℓ

21

[GeV]

4l

m 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Entries/1GeV 1 2 3 4 5 6 VBF WH ZH ttH ggF Background VBF WH ZH ttH ggF Background ATLAS Simulation Preliminary = 14 TeV s ,

1

L=3000fb

∫

ttH-like category [GeV]

4l

m 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Entries/1GeV 5 10 15 20 25 30 VBF WH ZH ttH ggF Background ATLAS Simulation Preliminary = 14 TeV s ,

1

L=3000fb

∫

VBF-like category [GeV]

4l

m 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Entries/1GeV 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 VBF WH ZH ttH ggF Background ATLAS Simulation Preliminary = 14 TeV s ,

1

L=3000fb

∫

ggF-like category

signal events ggH VBF tt̅ H WH ZH 3000 fb−1 3800 97 35 67 6

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-014

Large statistics will be used for dσ/dpT(H), dσ/dNjets

SLIDE 35

Higgs CP Studies

H→ZZ→4ℓ used to reconstruct the full angular decay

structure.

Very sensitive to non-SM (CP = 0+) contributions.

22

SM tree processes loop CP-even contributions CP-odd contributions (BSM)

{ { {

φai = arg ai a1

fai =

|ai|2σi |a1|2σ1 + |ai|2σi A(H → ZZ) = v−1 a1m2

Z 1 2 + a2f (1) µ f (2),µ + a3f (1) µ

˜ f (2),µ

Fit fraction of event (fai) and phases (ϕi) to observed decay:

SLIDE 36

Higgs CP Studies

Extra contributions constrained to |f| ~ 10 % with 3000 fb−1.

23

Loop-induced CP-even contribution

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-013 arXiv:1307.7135

CP-odd contribution

SLIDE 37

Rare Processes

H→µµ – measures coupling to second

fermion generation

ATLAS and CMS expect >7σ significance

with 3000 fb−1

coupling measured to 5-10%
H→Zγ
Tests loop structure of decay, compare

with H→ZZ H→γγ

~4σ significance possible with 3000 fb−1

despite the challenging background

24

[GeV]

µ µ

m 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Events / 0.5 GeV

2

10

3

10

4

10

5

10

6

10

7

10

8

10

9

10

ATLAS Simulation Preliminary

1

dt = 3000 fb L

∫

= 14 TeV s =125 GeV

H

, m µ µ → H µ µ → Z t t ν µ ν µ → WW

ZZ and H!γγ)

Z γ H W,b,t

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-014

SLIDE 38

Higgs Boson Signal Strength Sensitivity

25

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-016

µ / µ ∆ 0.2 0.4

(ttH-like) (incl.) (comb.) (VBF-like) (ZH-like) (WH-like) (comb.) (incl.) (VBF-like) (1j) (0j) (comb.) (ggF-like) (VBF-like) (ttH-like) (VH-like) (comb.) (ttH-like) (ZH-like) (WH-like) (VBF-like) (1j) (0j) (comb.)

ATLAS Simulation Preliminary

= 14 TeV: s

1

Ldt=300 fb

∫

;

1

Ldt=3000 fb

∫

γ γ → H ZZ → H WW → H γ Z → H b b → H τ τ → H µ µ → H γ γ → H ZZ → H WW → H γ Z → H b b → H τ τ → H µ µ → H

0.7 → 0.9 →

All production modes can be observed for ZZ and γγ final states
Combine production modes for best information on branching ratios

dashed bands includes current theory uncertainties

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 CMS Projection

Expected uncertainties on Higgs boson signal strength

expected uncertainty

γ γ → H WW → H ZZ → H bb → H τ τ → H

= 14 TeV Scenario 1 s at

1

3000 fb = 14 TeV Scenario 2 s at

1

3000 fb

3000 fb−1

Scenario 2: TH unc. scaled by 1/2 EXP unc. scaled by √ℒ

arXiv:1307.7135

Summary of precision for 3000 fb−1:

~ 4 - 5% for main channels
~ 10 - 20% on rare modes

SLIDE 39

Higgs Boson Width

H→ZZ→4ℓ: Use the interference

between off-shell and on-shell production to measure Γ(H)

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2015-024

For 3000 fb−1 ; using uncertainty between background signal of

σ(RH*B) = 10% ;combining on-shell and off-shell measurement; assuming off-shell measurement dominates, for Γ = ΓSM gives: Γ H= 4.2+1.5−2.1 MeV (stat+sys)

SLIDE 40

Interpretation as Coupling Scale Factors

Experiments measure cross section times branching ratio
Interpretation with coupling scale factors, κ, is model dependent

27

q q q q H W,Z W,Z

W,Z

κ

q q H W,Z W,Z

W,Z

κ

g g t t H t t

t

κ

H

g g H b,t

b,t

κ

g

κ

r

gluon-gluon fusion

H t H H W,Z W,Z

W,Z

κ

H τ b, τ b,

τ b,

κ

γ γ H W,b,t

W,b,t

κ

γ

κ

r

  g ratio

(σ · BR)(gg → H → γγ) = σSM(gg → H) · BRSM(H → γγ) · κ2

g · κ2 γ

κ2

H

Assume ΓH is sum of sum of visible widths - no additional invisible modes
e.g.

SLIDE 41

Higgs Boson Couplings Fit

28

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 CMS Projection

Expected uncertainties on Higgs boson couplings

expected uncertainty

γ

κ

W

κ

Z

κ

g

κ

b

κ

t

κ

τ

κ

= 14 TeV Scenario 1 s at

1

3000 fb = 14 TeV No Theory Unc. s at

1

3000 fb

expected uncertainty

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 CMS Projection

Expected uncertainties on Higgs boson couplings

expected uncertainty

γ

κ

W

κ

Z

κ

g

κ

b

κ

t

κ

τ

κ

= 14 TeV Scenario 1 s at

1

3000 fb = 14 TeV Scenario 2 s at

1

3000 fb

3000 fb−1 300 fb−1

arXiv:1307.7135 ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-016

Scenario 2: TH unc. scaled by 1/2 EXP unc. scaled by √ℒ

)

Y

κ

X

κ ( ∆ =

XY

λ ∆ 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

)Z γ (Z

λ

Z γ

λ

gZ

λ

Z µ

λ

Z τ

λ

bZ

λ

tg

λ

WZ

λ

gZ

κ

ATLAS Simulation Preliminary

= 14 TeV: s

1

Ldt=300 fb

∫

;

1

Ldt=3000 fb

∫

SLIDE 42

Mass scaled couplings

i

y

3

10

2

10

1

10 1 Z W t b τ µ ATLAS Simulation Preliminary

= 14 TeV s

ν l ν l → WW* → 4l, h → ZZ* → , h γ γ → h γ Z → , h µ µ → bb, h → , h τ τ → h ]

µ

κ ,

τ

κ ,

b

κ ,

t

κ ,

W

κ ,

Z

κ [ =0

i,u

BR

1

dt = 300 fb L

∫

1

dt = 3000 fb L

∫

[GeV]

i

m

1

10 1 10

2

10 Ratio to SM

0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2

29

yV,i =

κV,i

gV,i 2v = √κV,i mV,i v yf,i =κf,i gf,i √ 2 = κf,i mf,i v Vector boson coupling Fermion couplings

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-016

mass (GeV)

0.1 1 10 100

1/2

r (g/2v)

λ

4

10

3

10

2

10

1

10 1 WZ t b τ µ

68% CL

CMS

Projection

(14 TeV)

1

3000 fb

3000 fb−1

CERN-LHCC-2015-010

SLIDE 43

HH

30

SLIDE 44

Higgs Boson Pair Production

Higgs boson pair production includes destructive interference between two

types of processes:

31

10-1 100 101 102

4
3
2
1

1 2 3 4 σ(N)LO[fb] λ/λSM

pp→HH (EFT loop-improved) pp→HHjj (VBF) pp→ttHH p p → W H H p p → Z H H p p → t j H H

HH production at 14 TeV LHC at (N)LO in QCD

MH=125 GeV, MSTW2008 (N)LO pdf (68%cl) MadGraph5_aMC@NLO

arXiv:1401.7340v2

NNLO σSM=40.8 fb Number of events in 3000 fb−1 bbWW 30000 bbττ 9000 WWWW 6000 γγbb 320 γγγγ 1

SLIDE 45

[GeV]

γ γ

m 50 100 150 200 250 Events/2.5 GeV 5 10 15 20 25 ATLAS Simulation Preliminary

1

=14 TeV, 3000 fb s

) γ γ )H( b H(b Others γ γ b b X t t ) γ γ H( t t ) γ γ )H( b Z(b ) γ γ H( b b

e.g. HH→bbγγ

CMS: 2d fit of m(bb) and

m(γγ) distributions (control background from data)

ATLAS cut based analysis

32

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-019

[GeV]

b b

m 50 100 150 200 250 Events/10 GeV 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 ATLAS Simulation Preliminary

1

=14 TeV, 3000 fb s

) γ γ )H( b H(b Others γ γ b b X t t ) γ γ H( t t ) γ γ )H( b Z(b ) γ γ H( b b

]

2

[GeV/c

γ γ

M

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150

Number of Events

10 20 30 40 50

Toy data Combined fit γ γ HH->bb Resonant bkg Non-resonant bkg

=14 TeV, PU=140 s

CMS Simulation

CERN-LHCC-2015-010

bb mass peak is broad
γγ shows narrow resonance

SLIDE 46

H→γγ, H→bb ̅ candidate event at √s=8 TeV

33 arXiv:1406.5053

SLIDE 47

BDT

0.3
0.2
0.1

0.1 0.2

Events

1 10

2

10

3

10

4

10

5

10

6

10

bb τ τ → HH t t tW τ τ Z-> V t t VV[V]+jets H t t ZH

Stat. uncertainty

=14 TeV, PU=140 s

CMS Simulation

hµ

HH→bbττ

Major background from tt̅, with t→τvb
Results for 3000 fb−1 and SM (λ=1):
ATLAS: All ττ final states considered
13 HH→bbττ events after full event

selection cf 803 background events

CMS: τ(had) τ(had) & τ(µ) τ(had) ; kinematic

variables to distinguish signal from background

Just 0.9 σ sensitivity

34 ATL-PHYS-PUB-2015-046 CERN-LHCC-2015-010

SLIDE 48

Vector Boson Scattering

35

SLIDE 49

Vector Boson Scattering

Explore electroweak symmetry breaking

through VBS: e.g. Look for W+W+, W−W− and WZ final states

36 arXiv:1405.6241

In Run 1, ATLAS (CMS) observed 4.5σ (2.0σ)

evidence for W±W±jj production

CMS: Limits placed on dimension-8
perators, fX / Λ4 (à la Eboli, Gonzalez-

Garcia, Mizukoshi arXiv:hep-ph/0606118)

arXiv:1410.6315

SLIDE 50

Run 1 Evidence for Weak Boson Scattering

37 arXiv:1405.6241

SLIDE 51

WW: Very clear signature expected

with sensitivity to 125 GeV Higgs boson propagator

WZ: More challenging due to large

QCD contribution.

38

Weak Boson Scattering Prospects

CMS-PAS-FTR-13-006

SLIDE 52

Beyond the Standard Model

39

SLIDE 53

Additional Heavy Higgs bosons

Additional Higgs doublets predicted in many models, including Supersymmetry.
e.g. A two-Higgs doublet (2HDM) model includes four new Higgs boson:
α is a mixing angle between the Higgs doublets
tanβ is the ratio between the vev the Higgs doublets

40

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-016

A→Zh → ℓℓbb reconstruction (2HDM)

h0 A0

H+

H0

H−

125 GeV CP odd

cos(β−α)→0 if h0 is SM-like

CMS-PAS-FTR-13-024

SLIDE 54

Higgs Portal to Dark Matter

In the SM Higgs boson couples to all

massive particles

very likely Higgs boson will also

couple to any DM WIMPs, χ

look for a branching ratio for Higgs

boson to invisible particles

Coupling of χ to H take as free

parameter; BR(inv) sets a limit on the interactions of χ

In 3000 fb−1
ATLAS: BR(inv) < 0.13

(0.09 w/out theory uncertainties)

CMS: BR(inv) < 0.11

(0.07 in alt. theory uncertainty)

41

[GeV]

χ

m 1 10

2

10

3

10 ]

2

[cm

N

χ

σ

57

10

55

10

53

10

51

10

49

10

47

10

45

10

43

10

41

10

39

10

DAMA/LIBRA (99.7% CL) CRESST (95% CL) CDMS (95% CL) CoGeNT (90% CL) XENON10 (90% CL) XENON100 (90% CL) SuperCDMS (90% CL) LUX (95% CL) Scalar WIMP Majorana WIMP Vector WIMP

ATLAS Preliminary Simulation

Higgs portal model: ATLAS (95% CL) in

1

dt = 3000 fb L

∫

= 14 TeV, s , ν l ν l → WW* → 4l, h → ZZ* → , h γ γ → h µ µ → bb, h → , h τ τ → , h γ Z → h

LHC complements direct DM search experiments in the lower mass range

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-017

SLIDE 55

SUSY production at the LHC

42

gluinos neutralinos (χ ͠ 0) & charginos (χ ͠ ±): superpositions of Higgsinos, Wino, Bino

h A

H±

h̃ Ã

H̃±

stops squarks

The lightest neutralino (LSP) is candidate to explain dark matter.

SLIDE 56

Stop and Sbottom Searches

43

HL-LHC Physics Pippa Wells, CERN 32

5σ discovery, simplified model 300 fb-1 3000 fb-1 stop mass from direct production [ATLAS] Up to 1.0 TeV Up to 1.2 TeV gluino mass with decay to stop [CMS] Up to 1.9 TeV Up to 2.2 TeV sbottom mass from direct production [ATLAS] Up to 1.1 TeV Up to 1.3 TeV

Stop pair production; ˜

t → t˜ χ0

1

Sbottom pair production; ˜

b1 → b˜ χ0

1

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-011 ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-010 CMS-PAS-FTR-13-014

SLIDE 57

Strong and Weak SUSY Production Limits

44

Large uncertainties on σ from knowledge of PDFs

Strong SUSY: Gluino pair production Weak SUSY: Chargino and neutralino decaying via WZ

χ±

1 → W ±χ0 1,

χ0

2 → Zχ0 1

CMS-PAS-FTR-13-014 ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-010

Chargino mass 5σ discovery, simplified model 300 fb-1 3000 fb-1 WZ (3l analysis) [ATLAS] Up to 560 GeV Up to 820 GeV WZ (3l analysis) [CMS] Up to 600 GeV Up to 900 GeV WH (3l analysis) [ATLAS] (<5σ reach) Up to 650 GeV WH (bb analysis) [ATLAS] (new in 2015) (<5σ reach) Up to 800 GeV WH (bb analysis) [CMS] 350-460 GeV Up to 950 GeV

Simplified SUSY model

SLIDE 58

Summary of SUSY Simplified Models Reach

45

ATLAS   projection gluino mass squark mass stop mass sbottom mass χ1

+ mass

WZ mode χ1

+ mass 

WH mode 300 fb-1 2.0 TeV 2.6 TeV 1.0 TeV 1.1 TeV 560 GeV None 3000 fb-1 2.4 TeV 3.1 TeV 1.2 TeV 1.3 TeV 820 GeV 650 GeV

SLIDE 59

46

New physics could appear anywhere!
Look for resonances in di-leptons, γγ, tt̅, di-bosons (WW, WZ, ZZ) and extra

missing transverse momentum.

4 TeV Kaluza-Klein gluon, gKK→ tt̅

5 TeV Z’→µ+µ−

Resonance Searches

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-007 ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-003

m(Z') [GeV]

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

ee) (pb) → .Br(Z' σ

6

10

5

10

4

10

3

10

2

10

1

10

1

discovery 300fb

1

discovery 1000fb , EB-EB only

1

discovery 1000fb

1

discovery 3000fb , EB-EB only

1

discovery 3000fb (LO)

SSM

Z' (LO)

χ

Z' (LO)

η

Z' (LO)

ψ

Z' CMS Projection, 14 TeV channel

e

+

e

Z’→e+e−

arXiv:1307.7135

SLIDE 60

Mass Reach for Exotic Signatures

47

Mass reach [TeV]

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 300/fb 3000/fb

CMS Phase II Simulation

ATLAS @14 TeV Z’ ! ee SSM 95% CL limit gKK ! t t RS  95% CL limit Dark matter M* 5σ discovery 300 fb-1 6.5 TeV 4.3 TeV 2.2 TeV 3000 fb-1 7.8 TeV 6.7 TeV 2.6 TeV

SLIDE 61

Top Quark Physics

48

SLIDE 62

Top Quark Physics

Top quark mass parameter can be measured to ΛQCD ~200 MeV in 3000 fb−1.
Endpoint method, which probes the pole mass, can measure mt to 500 MeV
In SM BR(t→Wb) ≃ 100% Many models predict enhancements, interesting range

starts at ~10−4 ⇒ Observing decays to other modes clear sign of new physics

HL-LHC will probe BR(t→qZ), BR(t→qγ) at ~3×10−5 at least and BR(t→cH) at ~10−4

49

b

cs

at

47 !

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-012 CMS-PAS-FTR-13-016

uncertainty [GeV]

top

Total m

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Present

1

30 fb 13 TeV

1

300 fb 14 TeV

1

3000 fb 14 TeV

CMS preliminary projection

Std. meth.

Endpoints ψ J/

xy

L

Endpoint method

CMS-PAS-FTR-13-017

SLIDE 63

Outlook

We’ve come a long way, baby, but there’s still far to go…
With 3000 fb−1 the LHC will offer a comprehensive physics programme:

50

Precision Higgs physics: measure production rates to a few % (model dep.) SUSY: Assuming light LSP (<1 TeV) discover squarks up to 1.1 TeV discover gluinos up to 2 TeV Sensitivity to generic resonances and missing energy up to O (7 TeV) Measure mtop to 200 MeV Sensitivity to rare top quark decays of <10−4 Discovery of additional Higgs bosons up to O (1 TeV) Theory uncertainty dominant for many analyses HH observation … might reach 5σ triple-Higgs boson H→cc ̅

Some analyses do remain beyond the reach of HL-LHC:

Observation of H→Zγ and H→µ+µ−

SLIDE 64

51

CMS’s highest mass event 12 jet with pT>50 GeV each! Total mass of system 6.4 TeV

SLIDE 65

Backup

52

SLIDE 66

ATLAS Upgrades

Long Shutdown 1
New beam pipe at r=25mm
New insertable b-layer at 31 < r/mm < 40
Refurbished pixel readout
More complete muon coverage: extended

endcap installation complete

Fast Tracking for L2-trigger will come online

during run 2

Long Shutdown 2
New muon small wheel forward

spectrometer

Topological L1-trigger processors
New forward detectors
For HL-LHC
Completely new trigger architecture with

new hardware at L0/L1

Completely new tracking detector
Calorimeter electronics upgrades

53

SLIDE 67

ATLAS & CMS Higgs boson coupling fits

54

L(fb−1) Exp.

W

Z g b t

Z
300

ATLAS [9, 9] [9, 9] [8, 8] [11, 14] [22, 23] [20, 22] [13, 14] [24, 24] [21, 21] CMS [5, 7] [4, 6] [4, 6] [6, 8] [10, 13] [14, 15] [6, 8] [41, 41] [23, 23] 3000 ATLAS [4, 5] [4, 5] [4, 4] [5, 9] [10, 12] [8, 11] [9, 10] [14, 14] [7, 8] CMS [2, 5] [2, 5] [2, 4] [3, 5] [4, 7] [7, 10] [2, 5] [10, 12] [8, 8]

SLIDE 68

CMS Upgrade

Long Shutdown 1:
Complete Muon coverage
New HCAL photo-detectors
Long Shutdown 2:
New Pixel detector (2017)
New HCAL electronics
L1-Trigger upgrade
For HL-LHC:
Tracker replacement, L1 Track-

Trigger

New forward calorimetry, muons

and tracking

High precision timing for pileup

mitigation

55 CMS PAS FTR-13-003

Greater trigger efficiency

SLIDE 69

Run 1 Top Quark Properties

56 arXiv:1403.4427

[GeV]

t

m

165 170 175 180 5 10

CMS 2010, dilepton

1

JHEP 07 (2011) 049, 36 pb

4.6 GeV ± 4.6 ± 175.5

syst) ± stat ± (value

CMS 2010, lepton+jets

1

PAS TOP-10-009, 36 pb

2.6 GeV ± 2.1 ± 173.1

syst) ± stat ± (value

CMS 2011, dilepton

1

EPJC 72 (2012) 2202, 5.0 fb

1.4 GeV ± 0.4 ± 172.5

syst) ± stat ± (value

CMS 2011, lepton+jets

1

JHEP 12 (2012) 105, 5.0 fb

1.0 GeV ± 0.4 ± 173.5

syst) ± stat ± (value

CMS 2011, all-hadronic

1

EPJ C74 (2014) 2758, 3.5 fb

1.2 GeV ± 0.7 ± 173.5

syst) ± stat ± (value

CMS 2012, lepton+jets

1

PAS TOP-14-001, 19.7 fb

0.7 GeV ± 0.1 ± 172.0

syst) ± stat ± (value

CMS 2012, all-hadronic

1

PAS TOP-14-002, 18.2 fb

0.8 GeV ± 0.3 ± 172.1

syst) ± stat ± (value

CMS 2012, dilepton

1

PAS TOP-14-010, 19.7 fb

1.4 GeV ± 0.2 ± 172.5

syst) ± stat ± (value

CMS combination

September 2014

0.65 GeV ± 0.10 ± 172.38

syst) ± stat ± (value

Tevatron combination

July 2014 arXiv:1407.2682

0.52 GeV ± 0.37 ± 174.34

syst) ± stat ± (value

World combination March 2014

ATLAS, CDF, CMS, D0

0.71 GeV ± 0.27 ± 173.34

syst) ± stat ± (value

[GeV]

t

m

165 170 175 180 5 10

(7 TeV)

1

(8 TeV) + 5.1 fb

1

19.7 fb

CMS Preliminary

CMS-PAS-TOP-14-015

SLIDE 70

Run 1 observed limits on stop and LSP

57 arXiv:1506.08616

Simplified models with t̃ → LSP + X

SLIDE 71

HL-LHC: Additional Heavy Higgs bosons

58

Prospects for ϕ→µµ production

[GeV]

A

m

200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

β tan

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

1

Ldt = 3000 fb

∫

1

Ldt = 300 fb

∫

=14 TeV s Preliminary, Simulation, ATLAS

discovery potential σ , 5 µ µ → φ = 200 GeV µ with

max h

MSSM m [GeV]

H

m 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 4l) [fb] → ZZ → BR(H × σ

2

10

1

10 1 10

2

10

4l) → BR(H ×

SM

σ Expected CLs σ 1 σ 2

1

Ldt = 300 fb

∫

Expected

Preliminary, Simulation ATLAS =14 TeV s ,

1

L dt = 3000 fb

∫

gluon-fusion

ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-016

m(ZZ) [GeV]

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Events / 25 GeV

1

10 1 10

2

10

3

10

4

10

5

10

6

10

7

10

B, Bj, Bjj-vbf, BB, BBB tj, tB, tt, ttB h = 300 GeV)

H

ZZ (m → H = 500 GeV)

H

ZZ (m → H = 800 GeV)

H

ZZ (m → H CMS Simulation 2013

1

=14 TeV L=3000 fb s 4l → ZZ → H = 140 >

PU

N Configuration 3 with <

Prospects for H’→ZZ→4ℓ production

CMS-PAS-FTR-13-024

SLIDE 72

Run 1 SUSY limits

59

[GeV]

g ~

m 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 [GeV]

1

χ ∼

m 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Off-shell region On-shell region

), including up to five-body decays g ~ ) >> m( t ~ ; m(

1

χ ∼ tt(*) → g ~ production, g ~ g ~

ATLAS

1

= 8 TeV, L = 20 fb s

All limits at 95% CL.

)

exp

σ 1 ± Expected ( )

theory SUSY

σ 1 ± Observed ( Expected Observed Expected Observed Expected Observed Expected Observed

miss T

0-lepton + 7-10 jets + E

miss T

SS/3L + jets + E

miss T

1-lepton (soft+hard) + jets + E

miss T

0/1-lepton + 3 b-jets + E

arXiv:1507.05525

SLIDE 73

HL-LHC Cross Sections

0.1 1 10 10

7

10

6

10

5

10

4

10

3

10

2

10

1

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

10

4

10

5

10

6

10

7

10

8

10

9

10

7

10

6

10

5

10

4

10

3

10

2

10

1

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

10

4

10

5

10

6

10

7

10

8

10

9

σ σ σ σZZ σ σ σ σWW σ σ σ σWH σ σ σ σVBF MH=125 GeV

WJS2012

σ σ σ σjet(ET

jet > 100 GeV)

σ σ σ σjet(ET

jet > √

√ √ √s/20) σ σ σ σggH

LHC Tevatron

events / sec for L = 10

33 cm

2s
1

σ σ σ σb σ σ σ σtot

proton - (anti)proton cross sections

σ σ σ σW σ σ σ σZ σ σ σ σt

σ σ σ σ ( ( ( (nb) ) ) ) √ √ √ √s (TeV)

{

60